Affect Ecosystem Services Research Articles

Microbial Diversity in a North Western Mediterranean Sea Shallow Coastal Lagoon Under Contrasting Water Temperature Conditions

Temperature and light mainly drive seasonal dynamics of microbial planktonic diversity in coastal ecosystems; however, disentangling their effects is challenging because they are always tightly coupled. Shallow coastal lagoons exhibit intense temperature changes throughout the year and high interannual temperature fluctuations, offering the opportunity to study temperature effects on microbial community diversity and succession. Weekly sampling at 16s and 18s rRNA gene OTU diversity associated with high-frequency meteorological and hydrological monitoring was conducted in the northwestern Mediterranean Thau Lagoon (South of France) from winter to spring in 2015 and 2016. While 2015 was a normal climatic year, 2016 had the warmest winter ever recorded in southern France. Water temperature was found to be the main driver of community diversity and succession from winter to spring. During the normal temperature year of 2015, bacterial communities were dominated by Proteobacteria and Bacteroidetes, archaeal community by Thaumarachaeota, and unicellular eukaryotes mainly by picochlorophytes (Bathycoccus prasinos, Micromonas bravo, and Ostreococcus spp.) in winter and diatoms (Chaetoceros spp.) in spring. The unusually warm year 2016 benefited Actinobacteria (ML602J-51), Cyanobacteria (Synechococcus), the picoeukaryote Ostreococcus spp., and several dinoflagellates. Our results suggest that in a warmer ocean, smaller organisms will dominate microbial communities in shallow coastal waters, potentially affecting ecosystem services.

Models for Assessing Urban Ecosystem Services: Status and Outlooks

Urban ecosystem services provide many benefits for human beings. Given the dramatic increase of urbanization, maintaining sustainability of cities relies heavily on ecosystem services, and it is crucial for quantifying, managing, and optimizing urban ecosystem services to promote social and ecological sustainable development. This study presents the review of models for assessing urban ecosystem services through gathering the pertinent literatures which were published recent years. The main types of approaches for assessing urban ecosystem services were summarized, and the model simulation approach was detailed. From modelling techniques to the existing models, it was found that a process-based model is, relatively, a better way to detect the mechanism of urban ecological processes and simulate the future dynamic changes of urban ecosystem services. Three key limitations of existing products and frameworks were identified: (1) lacking understanding of multiple urban ecosystem services interactions, (2) ignoring accounting the socioeconomic factors into dynamics of urban ecosystem, and (3) lacking considerations of feedback effects between social system and urban ecosystem. The study concludes with outlooks that a comprehensive social-ecosystem model based on the social-ecological framework is helpful to reveal the relationships and interactions among various urban ecosystem services, and can better assess how human-induced urban growth affects ecosystem services, and better describe the feedback effect between the social environment and urban ecosystem services, as well as dynamically predict the changes of urban ecosystem services under different scenarios in future long time series.

Impacts and Projections of Land Use and Demographic Changes on Ecosystem Services: A Case Study in the Guanzhong Region, China

Land use change and demographic factors directly or indirectly affect ecosystem services value, and the analysis of ecosystem services contributes to optimization of land planning, which is essential for regional sustainable development. In this study, ArcGIS 10.2, IDRISI 17.0 Selva and MATLAB software, value coefficient method, CA-Markov prediction model and population growth model were applied to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of land use trends and ecosystem service values in Guanzhong region, and further predict the impacts of land type changes and population changes on ecosystem services in the context of urbanization. Results showed that the expansion of construction land was the most intense, and the transfer process mainly crowded out arable land; the total ecosystem services value grew spatially in a “low center-high periphery” ring with large differences at the bottom, and forest land was the most important value provider. The total ecosystem services value was estimated to decline in the future, with low-value areas spreading northward and differences in the per capita ecosystem services value increasing. This study provides a reference for optimal simulation of urban expansion and ecological conservation.

Spatial autocorrelation in land use type and ecosystem service value in Hainan Tropical Rain Forest National Park

National parks promote the protection of the ecological environment and global biodiversity conservation. However, the changes in land use obviously damages the natural habitat, leading to habitat fragmentation and degradation. Land use changes affect ecosystem service value (ESV) and its spatial distribution. In this study, a framework for the assessment of regional spatial patterns in land use/cover changes (LUCC) and ESV was established; the framework relies on the application of a classical spatial autocorrelation model. Remote sensing data for Hainan Tropical Rain Forest National Park (HNTRFNP) were used as a test case for the autocorrelation model approach to analyzing spatial patterns in ESV. Across HNTRFNP, ESV averaged 6201.44 million USD, with high ESV seen in aquatic and forested areas. Furthermore, land use types in HNTRFNP showed spatial autocorrelation (P < 0.05), though the extent varied among types. Forests and water exhibited the most aggregation. The ESV showed significant spatial autocorrelation (P < 0.05). High ESV clusters occurred in primary tropical rainforests (i.e., Bawangling, Jianfengling, Wuzhishan, and Yinggeling) and aquatic areas (i.e., Changhua river, Daguangba reservoir, Nandu river, Taiping reservoir, Xiaomei reservoir, and Wanquan river tributaries). Low ESV areas occurred in villages and surrounding farmlands. There was a negative correlation (P < 0.05) between land use intensity and ESV. In conclusion, to heighten the ESV of HNTRFNP, we should return farmlands to forest, carry out relocation projects in key areas, and construct migration corridors to expand key species habitat.

Forest governance and development effects on tropical charcoal production and deforestation

Severe loss and degradation of tropical forests affects ecosystem services and livelihoods. Charcoal, an important energy and income source for millions of people, causes 7% of tropical deforestation and forest degradation. Forest governance aims to manage forest-related issues. On the one hand, development allows for financial investments in forest governance, e.g., in monitoring and enforcement, with the aim to control deforestation. On the other hand, deforestation often continues with increased human wellbeing. Here, we aim to (a) globally examine the effects of forest governance on charcoal production and deforestation, and (b) understand its association with development. We developed a typology of tropical forest governance systems based on a literature review of 54 USAID Country Profiles and combine it with global data on charcoal production, deforestation, governance quality and development. Our results suggest that countries’ development statuses affect charcoal production rather than governance quality; we observe a negative relationship between development status and charcoal production per capita (HDI: F (1,50) =4.85, p = 0.032; GNI: F (1,50) = 4.64, p = 0.036). The limited influence of governance quality and rights on charcoal production per capita and deforestation suggests mismatches between formal and informal governance and exposes challenges in top-down percolation of governance goals. Our results highlight the potential importance of tenure rights and potential opportunities for regional governing bodies to bridge local formal and informal actors to improve forest governance. Positive effects of regional tenure are driven by mixed effects of high development and governance quality related to decentralization in Asia and South America, highlighting transitions from charcoal as a livelihood energy source to a global commodity. Variability in results for FAO and UN charcoal production data advocates for better monitoring programs. However, for the first time, we explore global interactive patterns in charcoal production, development and governance—a starting point to differentiate good governance.

Spatial scaling of land use/land cover and ecosystem services across urban hierarchical levels: patterns and relationships

Land use/land cover (LULC) patterns seriously affect ecosystem services (ESs), especially in highly developed urban agglomerations. Exploring how LULC and ESs change spatially across urban hierarchical levels and understanding the possible mechanisms can promote the sustainable planning of urban landscapes. By mapping the spatial patterns of LULC and ESs in the three largest urban agglomerations of China, this study aimed to (1) identify the scaling relations of LULC and ESs across different urban hierarchical levels, (2) explore the possible mechanisms of these two types of spatial scaling, and (3) examine how the scaling relations of ESs relate to LULC and the policy implications. Based on LULC, we used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and other biophysical models to quantify ES indicators. Then, scalograms were used to quantify the scaling relations of LULC and ESs with respect to changing spatial extent. Developed land and cropland exhibited the most predictable responses with changing spatial extent. Compared to other ESs, provisioning services were the most predictable. The predictable scaling relations of ESs at different urban hierarchical levels fell into two general types: power laws at the city proper level and exponential relationships at the metropolitan region and urban agglomeration levels. The scaling relations of both LULC and ESs varied across urban hierarchical levels. The spatial scaling of ESs was closely related to LULC patterns. Integrating the scaling relations of ESs into land use planning can help decision-makers formulate multi-scale landscape conservation strategies.

PET particles raise microbiological concerns for human health while tyre wear microplastic particles potentially affect ecosystem services in waters

Although abundant and chemically peculiar, tyre wear microplastic particles (TWP) and their impact on the microbial communities in water are largely understudied. We tested in laboratory based semi-continuous cultures the impact of TWP and of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) derived particles (following a gradient of relative abundance) on the pathobiome (the group of potential human pathogenic bacteria) of a freshwater microbial community exposed to contamination by the effluent of a urban wastewater treatment plant, for a period of 28 days. We could define the modulated impact of the two types of microplastic particles: while PET does not favour bacterial growth, it offers a refuge to several potential pathogens of allochthonous origin (from the treated sewage effluent), TWP act as an additional carbon source, promoting the development and the massive growth of a biofilm composed by fast-growing bacterial genera including species potentially harmful and competitive in abating biodiversity in surface waters. Our results demonstrate the different ecological role and impact on freshwater environments of TWP and PET particles, and the need to approach the study of this pollutant not as a whole, but considering the origin and the chemical composition of the different particles.

Assessment on Changes of Ecosystem Carbon Storage in Reservoir Area due to Hydroproject.

Hydropower offers significant value for global carbon peak and carbon neutrality. However, the construction of hydropower stations leads to significant changes in land use and cover structure in reservoir areas, which affect ecosystem services including carbon balance. Furthermore, the development and operation of hydropower project require vast investment. However, the reservoir ecosystem's carbon storage and carbon emission reduction caused by hydropower could offer economic benefits when the official carbon market trading in China was launched in 2021. Therefore, it is necessary to assess comprehensively the changes in carbon storage and its value to the ecosystem in reservoir areas. The evaluation is of great importance for carbon loss reduction, land management, and hydropower development. This study provides a comprehensive and effective framework for evaluating changes in carbon storage and has its value to the reservoir ecosystem. It combines land utilization classification data obtained from remote sensing image interpretation and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) carbon storage model. Based on the case study of the Xiluodu reservoir area, they were evaluated from two aspects: physical quantity and value quantity. The results show that the carbon storage in the Xiluodu reservoir area increased by 8,504.42 Mg from 2000 to 2018. The spatial distribution of the carbon storage shows a trend of high in the north and west, but low in the south and east. The construction of hydropower stations and the rise of reservoir water level covered a large amount of land, which led to the loss of carbon storage in reservoir areas. By implementing soil and water conservation and vegetation protection policies, parts of the cultivated land and grassland were converted into forestland, which was the main source for increasing the ecosystem's carbon storage. Moreover, carbon emission reduction was achieved by hydropower. In terms of the monetary value, the carbon storage value of the reservoir ecosystem increased to 19 million RMB during the construction period (2005–2015). The carbon storage value of the reservoir ecosystem increased to 611 million RMB during the operation period (2015–2018). The latter was greater than the maintenance cost of the hydropower station and exceeded the amortized cost of hydropower development, indicating the feasibility and economic benefits of hydropower development. These findings provide guidance for future hydropower development decisions in Jinsha River Basin and also others.

Identification of ecosystem services supply and demand and driving factors in Taihu Lake Basin.

A comprehensive understanding of the multiple factors affecting ecosystem services (ESs) supply and demand balance is essential for effective ecosystem management and policy making. However, the importance of individual factors for ES balance is still unclear. Using Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) models and Structural Equation Modeling, I mapped the supply-demand balance of four types of ESs (carbon sequestration, water yield, soil conservation, and recreation) in Taihu Lake Basin, China, and quantified the causal relationships between multiple factors and ES balance. The results revealed spatial heterogeneity and imbalance in ES supply and demand in the basin, with the greatest imbalances in built-up city center areas. ES balance was influenced by multiple factors, but particularly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), elevation, precipitation, and human disturbance. For appropriate watershed management in the future, it is recommended that numbers of small-scale community parks in city centers be increased and that green space be expanded in the suburbs, implementing multi-objective ES management systems and step-by-step implementation plans, and optimizing the configuration of natural ecosystems by creating buffer strips for built-up areas. By carefully managing ES supply-demand balance and associated influencing factors, ecosystem status and human well-being in Taihu Lake Basin, and in other similar basins, can be substantially improved.

Methane emissions only negligibly reduce the ecosystem service value of wetlands and rice paddies in the mature Ganges Delta.

Wetland provides a wide range of ecosystem services with immense value. However, methane (CH4) emissions adversely affect ecosystem services, and it requires fixation cost. The objective of the present study was to estimate CH4 emissions and ecosystem services value (ESV) and how much the fixation cost of CH4 reduces the ESV. Since rice cultivation is a very common practice here, the paddy fields were also incorporated in this study. CH4 flux and satellite data were employed for estimating the emissions with the help of two-factor (temperature and water availability) model. Global coefficients of ecosystem service value (ESV) that is defined as the monetary valuation of materialistic and non-materialistic services were adapted for estimating the ecosystem service of the CH4 emitting sources. Results show that during the boro season (pre-monsoon summer paddy cultivation season), average monthly emissions of paddy fields are equal to the wetlands which are 0.16 t/km2. During amon season (monsoon paddy cultivation season), this emissions is 0.7 t/km2 and 0.53 t/km2, respectively, from wetlands and paddy fields. Both wetlands and paddy fields emit a greater amount of CH4 during amon season than boro season. Behind this seasonal variation, water availability in terms of precipitation-evaporation ratio plays a more vital role than temperature. Total estimated ESV is 928.51 million US$, and CH4 fixation cost is 6.64 million US$ which is only 0.71% to total ESV. So, considering such huge net ESV, emphasis on wetland conservation and restoration are necessary.

Loss of plant cover mediates the negative effect of anthropogenic disturbance on the multifunctionality of a dryland

AbstractAimsAnthropogenic disturbances due to human economic activities may affect ecosystem services, which are the benefits provided by the ecosystem properties, such as soil water content and soil fertility. Also, these disturbances affect plant community biodiversity and cover, which are also known to affect multiple ecosystem properties. However, the strength of the relative effects of the disturbance itself and of the effect that is mediated by changes in the plant community is still unclear.QuestionsWe evaluated the relative direct and indirect effects (mediated by changes in the plant community) of the anthropogenic disturbances on ecosystem multifunctionality.LocationDry forests within the Sustainable Development Reserve Ponta do Tubarão, northeastern Brazil.MethodsWe measured standing biomass, litter mass, soil fertility and soil water content in 52 vegetation plots along a gradient of anthropogenic disturbance. Also, we measured woody plant cover and species’ functional traits to characterize the plant community functional structure. We measured livestock grazing, selective logging and past clear‐cuts as proxies of anthropogenic disturbance to create an index that characterizes the additive effect of these human activities. By building a theoretical model using the structural equation modelling approach, we investigated how the plant community changes in cover and biodiversity due to anthropogenic disturbances mediate changes in ecosystem properties.ResultsOur results show that anthropogenic disturbances had negative effects on ecosystem properties. Plant cover loss caused by anthropogenic disturbances was the major determinant of the negative effect of disturbances. The functional structure of the plant community had a weak effect on these properties.ConclusionsBy assessing the effect of human activities on multifunctionality, we found a stronger negative effect of anthropogenic disturbances when compared to its effect on single ecosystem properties. The recovery of plant cover should be a major focus of projects aiming to restore and maintain the multifunctionality of this dryland.

Is traditional fisheries management correctly addressing the possible causes of fish production decline? The relationship between environmental degradation and artisanal river fisheries in the Magdalena River basin, Colombia

Context Overfishing has been historically considered as the main cause of fish stock depletion in the Magdalena River basin, Colombia, whereas the environmental context in which fisheries take place has not been considered. Aims The purpose of this research was to answer the following question: have anthropic activities, other than fishing, influenced the decrease in fishery production in the Magdalena River basin between 1980 and 2015? Methods We analysed diverse variables that were used as proxies for different environmental degradation processes, including sediment load, forest cover, flow rates, reservoir volume &lt;1200 m above sea level, gold production and human population growth. We compared these variables with fishery production between 1980 and 2015 by using cluster analysis, principal-component analysis (PCA) and principal-component regression (PCR). Key results Our findings confirmed that environmental degradation accounts for 61% of the reduction of fishery production. Conclusions The traditional approach of holding fishers accountable for the decline of fishery production is misleading, and, therefore, a better understanding of the overall system is necessary before implementing restrictions on fishing activities. Implications Hence, fishery management should also integrate economic and social variables that affect ecosystem services within the basin into the analysis and decision processes.

How Does Urban Expansion Affect Ecosystem Services? A Typical Case of an Eco-Fragile Area

How Does Urban Expansion Affect Ecosystem Services? A Typical Case of an Eco-Fragile Area

Forage crops: a repository of functional trait diversity for current and future climate adaptation

Climate change and global warming are the foremost anthropogenically accelerated catastrophes that are already causing world-wide challenges, but threaten to thwart global food, environmental and nutritional security in the future. Climate change affects ecosystem services and interactions between biotic and abiotic factors. The most drastic consequences have been observed in the agricultural and livestock sector, with diminished production and productivity potential. Agriculture and allied sectors contribute markedly to the production of greenhouse gases; however, integrated management practices can be used to curtail greenhouse gas emissions and its adverse impacts. Forage crops and their wild relatives maintain biodiversity and ecosystem services and minimise the drastic effects of climate change. Forage crops adapted to harsh environments have certain unique features such as perenniality, deep root system, high resource-use efficiency (light, nutrients and water), and low production of methane and N2O, making them suitable for future use under climate change. This review highlights the prominent features of various cultivated and rangeland forage crops that may be crucial to understanding impacts of climate change. We discuss the wild relatives of forage crops, which are often adapted for multiple stresses, and highlight their mechanisms for adaptation under climate change. We consider the advanced breeding and biotechnological tools useful for developing climate-smart forage crops. This review provides novel insight into forage crops and their wild relatives in terms of their exploitation in future stress breeding programmes and paths for developing climate-resilient crops.

Spatial and temporal variability of soil organic carbon on a corn–soybean watershed with 23 years of agroforestry

AbstractUnsustainable agricultural practices deplete soil organic carbon (SOC), affecting ecosystem services, land productivity, soil health, and water quality. This study evaluated the long‐term effects of row crop (RC), agroforestry buffers (AB), grass buffers (GB), and grassed waterways (GWW) on SOC. Agroforestry buffers (grass and tree) and grass buffer treatments were established in 1997 on a corn (Zea Mays L.)–soybean (Glycine Max [L]. Merr.) rotation. Grid soil samples from 86 locations were collected in 10 transects to determine SOC at 0–10 and 10–20 cm depths. The general linear model and the generalized linear mixed model were conducted to evaluate treatment, landscape, soil depth, and series effects on SOC. Kriging interpolation was used to visualize the temporal and spatial change of SOC in the watersheds, comparing samples collected in 2000 and 1994 with samples collected in 2020. The mean SOC percentage (SOC%) in the top 10 cm depth for the RC, AB, GB, and GWW areas was 1.94, 2.19, 2.41, and 2.51%, respectively (ρ &lt; .001). The soil depth was significant (ρ &lt; .001) between samples from 0–10 cm and 10–20 cm. The mean SOC% among soil series showed no significant differences at the studied depths. The mean SOC% of 0–10 cm for RC, AB, and GWW were 1.85, 1.88, and 2.30% in 2000 and 1.94, 2.19, and 2.51% in 2020. The foot‐slope position had the highest (2.41%) and the summit position had the lowest SOC (2.02%) percentages. The SOC% in the RC treatment from 0–10 cm at the summit, backslope, and foot slope positions were ranked 1.83 &lt; 2.22 &lt; 2.31%, respectively. Perennial vegetation and undisturbed land management practices increased SOC compared with the RC areas.

Arazi Kullanımı/Arazi Örtüsü Değişikliklerinin Ekosistem Hizmetleri Üzerindeki Etkisinin Sayısallaştırılması: Adana-Karaisalı Örneği

Global scale changes in land use affect biodiversity, global climate, and ecosystem services. Integrating a local and regional ecosystem service approach into plans and policies levels is essential for sustainable land management. In this study, land use/land cover differences in Adana-Karaisali district of Turkey were investigated using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Landsat satellite images of the area from 2000 and 2016 were analyzed using ISODATA method and 16 land use were identified based on the third level of the CORINE classification framework. The results showed that the biggest changes occurred in agricultural areas, 2.57% decrease in non-irrigated arable land while a 7.14% increase was observed in permanently irrigated lands. In spite of the decrease in the number of inhabitants in the area, continuous urban fabric increased at the rate of 0.07% and 7.62% increase was observed in forest lands. The positive or negative effects of the identified changes on ecosystem services based on the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES) framework were evaluated. In the case of Karaisalı, in spite of the decrease in water bodies and natural landscapes, it has been observed that increases in agricultural areas, forests, and artificial surfaces positively have affected ecosystem services valuation in the district.

Mapping the economic loss of ecosystem services caused by the invasive plant species Antigonon leptopus on the Dutch Caribbean Island of St. Eustatius

Invasive species are a worldwide threat to biodiversity, especially on Caribbean islands. Through their impact on the structure and functioning of ecosystems, they also affect ecosystem services. Therefore, invasive species can have profound socio-economic effects. On the Dutch Caribbean Island of St. Eustatius, the invasive perennial vine Coralita is present on roughly 33% of the Island. While ecological damage is evident, effective management strategies are still lacking. This study links the ecological, cultural and societal effects of the invasion to the economy of the Island by estimating the ecosystem service losses due to Coralita in monetary value. We have spatially assessed the economic value of five main ecosystem services (tourism, non-use value, carbon sequestration, archaeology and local cultural and recreational value) to the different habitats on the Island and estimated the loss of these values under three scenarios of Coralita cover: 0%, 3% and 36% dominant cover. The baseline scenario of 0% demonstrated a total ecosystem service value of $2.7 million per year, concentrated on the Quill volcano. The 3% and 36% scenario showed a yearly loss of $39,804 and $576,704, respectively, with the largest losses located on the northern and eastern slopes of the Quill. These areas should be prioritised for management and the known potential gain per area enables choice of strategy, based on cost-benefit considerations. To reduce further economic loss by Coralita, we urgently advise an immediate management strategy and ongoing research into eradication and restoration methods.

What evidence exists on how changes in marine ecosystem structure and functioning affect ecosystem services delivery? A systematic map protocol

BackgroundThe current biodiversity crisis calls for an urgent need to sustainably manage human uses of nature. The Ecosystem Services (ES) concept defined as « the benefits humans obtain from nature » support decisions aimed at promoting nature conservation. However, marine ecosystems, in particular, endure numerous direct pressures (e.g., habitat loss and degradation, overexploitation, pollution, climate change, and the introduction of non-indigenous species) all of which threaten ecosystem structure, functioning, and the very provision of ES. While marine ecosystems often receive less attention than terrestrial ecosystems in ES literature, it would also appear that there is a heterogeneity of knowledge within marine ecosystems and within the different ES provided. Hence, a systematic map on the existing literature will aim to highlight knowledge clusters and knowledge gaps on how changes in marine ecosystems influence the provision of marine ecosystem services. This will provide an evidence base for possible future reviews, and may help to inform eventual management and policy decision-making.MethodsWe will search for all evidence documenting how changes in structure and functioning of marine ecosystems affect the delivery of ES, across scientific and grey literature sources. Two bibliographic databases, Scopus and Web of Science Core Collection, will be used with a supplementary search undertaken in Google scholar. Multiple organisational websites related to intergovernmental agencies, supra-national or national structures, and NGOs will also be searched. Searches will be performed with English terms only without any geographic or temporal limitations. Literature screening, against predefined inclusion criteria, will be undertaken on title, abstract, and then full texts. All qualifying literature will be subjected to coding and meta-data extraction. No formal validity appraisal will be undertaken. Indeed, the map will highlight how marine ecosystem changes impact the ES provided. Knowledge gaps will be identified in terms of which ecosystem types, biodiversity components, or ES types are most or least studied and how these categories are correlated. Finally, a database will be provided, we will narratively describe this evidence base with summary figures and tables of pertinent study characteristics.

Turgor loss point and vulnerability to xylem embolism predict species-specific risk of drought-induced decline of urban trees.

Increasing frequency and severity of drought events is posing risks to trees' health, including those planted in urban settlements. Drought-induced decline of urban trees negatively affects ecosystem services of urban green spaces and implies cost for maintenance and removal of plants. We aimed at identifying physiological traits that can explain and predict the species-specific vulnerability to climate change in urban habitats. We assessed the relationships between long-term risk of decline of different tree species in a medium-sized town and their key indicators of drought stress tolerance, i.e. turgor loss point (TLP) and vulnerability to xylem embolism (P50 ). Starting from 2012, the study area experienced several summer seasons with positive anomalies of temperature and negative anomalies of precipitation. This trend was coupled with increasing percentages of urban trees showing signs of crown die-back and mortality. The species-specific risk of decline was higher for species with less negative TLP and P50 values. The relationship between species-specific risk of climate change-induced decline of urban trees and key physiological indicators of drought tolerance confirms findings obtained in natural forests and highlights that TLP and P50 are useful indicators for species selection for tree plantation in towns, to mitigate negative impacts of climate change.

The Risk for Novel and Disappearing Environmental Conditions in the Baltic Sea

Future climate biogeochemical projections indicate large changes in the ocean with environmental conditions not experienced at present referred to as novel, or may even disappear. These climate-induced changes will most likely affect species distribution via changes in growth, behavior, evolution, dispersal, and species interactions. However, the future risk of novel and disappearing environmental conditions in the ocean is poorly understood, in particular for compound effects of climate and nutrient management changes. We map the compound risk of the occurrence of future novel and disappearing environmental conditions, analyze the outcome of climate and nutrient management scenarios for the world’s largest estuary, the Baltic Sea, and the potential consequences for three charismatic species. Overall, the future projections show, as expected, an increase in environmental novelty over time. The future nutrient reduction management that improves the eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea contributes to large novel and disappearing conditions. We show the consequences of novel and disappearing environmental conditions for fundamental niches of three charismatic species under different scenarios. This first step toward comprehensively analyzing environmental novelty and disappearing conditions for a marine system illustrates the urgent need to include novelty and disappearing projection outputs in Earth System Models. Our results further illustrate that adaptive management is needed to account for the emergence of novelty related to the interplay of multiple drivers. Overall, our analysis provides strong support for the expectation of novel ecological communities in marine systems, which may affect ecosystem services, and needs to be accounted for in sustainable future management plans of our oceans.