Aerosol Forcing Research Articles

The role of anthropogenic aerosols in the anomalous cooling from 1960 to 1990 in the CMIP6 Earth system models

Abstract. The Earth system models (ESMs) that participated in the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) tend to simulate excessive cooling in surface air temperature (TAS) between 1960 and 1990. The anomalous cooling is pronounced over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes, coinciding with the rapid growth of anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, the primary precursor of atmospheric sulfate aerosols. Structural uncertainties between ESMs have a larger impact on the anomalous cooling than internal variability. Historical simulations with and without anthropogenic aerosol emissions indicate that the anomalous cooling in the ESMs is attributed to the higher aerosol burden in these models. The aerosol forcing sensitivity, estimated as the outgoing shortwave radiation (OSR) response to aerosol concentration changes, cannot well explain the diversity of pothole cooling (PHC) biases in the ESMs. The relative contributions to aerosol forcing sensitivity from aerosol–radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) can be estimated from CMIP6 simulations. We show that even when the aerosol forcing sensitivity is similar between ESMs, the relative contributions of ARI and ACI may be substantially different. The ACI accounts for between 64 % and 87 % of the aerosol forcing sensitivity in the models and is the main source of the aerosol forcing sensitivity differences between the ESMs. The ACI can be further decomposed into a cloud-amount term (which depends linearly on cloud fraction) and a cloud-albedo term (which is independent of cloud fraction, to the first order), with the cloud-amount term accounting for most of the inter-model differences.

Anthropogenic aerosol effects on tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (1980–2020): separating the role of zonally asymmetric forcings

Abstract. Anthropogenic aerosols (AAs) induce global and regional tropospheric circulation adjustments due to the radiative energy perturbations. The overall cooling effects of AA, which mask a portion of global warming, have been the subject of many studies but still have large uncertainty. The interhemispheric contrast in AA forcing has also been demonstrated to induce a major shift in atmospheric circulation. However, the zonal redistribution of AA emissions since start of the 20th century, with a notable decline in the Western Hemisphere (North America and Europe) and a continuous increase in the Eastern Hemisphere (South Asia and East Asia), has received less attention. Here we utilize four sets of single-model initial-condition large-ensemble simulations with various combinations of external forcings to quantify the radiative and circulation responses due to the spatial redistribution of AA forcing during 1980–2020. In particular, we focus on the distinct climate responses due to fossil-fuel-related (FF) aerosols emitted from the Western Hemisphere (WH) versus the Eastern Hemisphere (EH). The zonal (west to east) redistribution of FF aerosol emission since the 1980s leads to a weakening negative radiative forcing over the WH mid-to-high latitudes and an enhancing negative radiative forcing over the EH at lower latitudes. Overall, the FF aerosol leads to a northward shift of the Hadley cell and an equatorward shift of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) jet stream. Here, two sets of regional FF simulations (Fix_EastFF1920 and Fix_WestFF1920) are performed to separate the roles of zonally asymmetric aerosol forcings. We find that the WH aerosol forcing, located in the extratropics, dominates the northward shift of the Hadley cell by inducing an interhemispheric imbalance in radiative forcing. On the other hand, the EH aerosol forcing, located closer to the tropics, dominates the equatorward shift of the NH jet stream. The consistent relationship between the jet stream shift and the top-of-atmosphere net solar flux (FSNTOA) gradient suggests that the latter serves as a rule-of-thumb guidance for the expected shift of the NH jet stream. The surface effect of EH aerosol forcing (mainly from low- to midlatitudes) is confined more locally and only induces weak warming over the northeastern Pacific and North Atlantic. In contrast, the WH aerosol reduction leads to a large-scale warming over NH mid-to-high latitudes that largely offsets the cooling over the northeastern Pacific due to EH aerosols. The simulated competing roles of regional aerosol forcings in driving atmospheric circulation and surface temperature responses during the recent decades highlight the importance of considering zonally asymmetric forcings (west to east) and also their meridional locations within the NH (tropical vs. extratropical).

Long-term multidataset direct aerosol radiative forcing and its efficiencies: Intercomparisons and uncertainties

Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing (DARF) characterizes aerosol influences on the radiative energy budget due to scattering and absorption of solar radiation, while clear uncertainties remain in both global and regional DARF estimations due to differences in aerosol properties and time periods considered. Through a multidataset strategy, this study systematically investigates the DARFs over Beijing, China, between 2001 and 2020. Ground-based observations from AERONET are used as “references”, and two satellite-based datasets (MODIS and MISR), atmospheric reanalysis (MERRA-2) and numerical modeling (WRF-CMAQ) are considered. We unify the numerical simulations for DARF to ensure a fair intercomparison among different datasets. Fortunately, the aerosol amount at the AERONET locations in Beijing can well represent those over the entire city region, and the average DARF at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) in the past twenty years is found to be ~ −36 W/m2 in Beijing. The relative differences in DARFs among different sources range between approximately −40% and 10%, and those in DARF efficiencies (DARFEs) are in a similar range (besides AERONET and MISR). The correlation coefficients on DARF between the AERONET and MERRA-2 results are found to be approximately ~0.75, and both MODIS and MISR result in correlation coefficients with AERONET over 0.80. However, the agreement at the MISR TOA DARF is caused by smaller AOD and larger DARFE. The DARF uncertainties based on AERONET, MODIS and MISR range from approximately 10% to over 20%. For the numerical simulations, the WRF-CMAQ results agree reasonably with the observation-based results, while their DARF magnitudes are merely about one-third of those from observation-based results. Clear differences among DARFs given by different types of datasets indicate that the uncertainties in direct aerosol forcings cannot be neglected, and that more efforts are still needed to unify and to improve our understanding of them.

Long-range transport of anthropogenic air pollutants into the marine air: insight into fine particle transport and chloride depletion on sea salts

Abstract. Long-range transport of anthropogenic air pollutants from East Asia can affect the downwind marine air quality during spring and winter. Long-range transport of continental air pollutants and their interaction with sea salt aerosol (SSA) significantly modify the radiative forcing of marine aerosols and influence ocean biogeochemical cycling. Previous studies poorly characterize variations of aerosol particles along with air mass transport from the continental edge to the remote ocean. Here, the research ship R/V Dongfanghong 2 traveled from the eastern China seas (ECS) to the northwestern Pacific Ocean (NWPO) to understand what and how air pollutants were transported from the highly polluted continental air to clean marine air in spring. A transmission electron microscope (TEM) was used to find the long-range transported anthropogenic particles and the possible Cl-depletion phenomenon of SSA in marine air. Anthropogenic aerosols (e.g., sulfur (S)-rich, S-soot, S-metal/fly ash, organic matter (OM)-S, and OM coating particles) were identified and dramatically declined from 87 % to 8 % by number from the ECS to remote NWPO. For the SSA aging, 87 % of SSA particles in the ECS were identified as fully aged, while the proportion of fully aged SSA particles in the NWPO decreased to 29 %. Our results highlight that anthropogenic acidic gases in the troposphere (e.g., SO2, NOx, and volatile organic compounds) could be transported to remote marine air and exert a significant impact on aging of SSA particles in the NWPO. The study shows that anthropogenic particles and gases from East Asia significantly perturb different aerosol chemistry from coastal to remote marine air. More attention should be given to the modification of SSA particles in remote marine areas due to the influence of anthropogenic gaseous pollutants.

Drivers of Recent North Pacific Decadal Variability: The Role of Aerosol Forcing

AbstractClimate variability in the Pacific has an important influence on climate around the globe. In the period from 1981 to 2012, there was an observed large‐scale cooling in the Pacific. This cooling projected onto the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and contributed to a slowdown in the rate of near‐surface temperature warming. However, this cooling pattern is not simulated well by the majority of coupled climate models and its cause is uncertain. We use large multi‐model ensembles from the sixth Climate Model Intercomparison Project, and an ensemble of simulations with HadGEM3‐GC3.1‐LL that is specifically designed to sample the range of uncertainty in historical anthropogenic aerosol forcing, to revisit the role of external forcings. We show that anthropogenic aerosols can drive an atmospheric circulation response via an increase in North Pacific sea level pressure and contribute to a negative PDO during this period in several global climate models. In HadGEM3, this increase in North Pacific sea‐level pressure is associated with an anomalous Rossby Wave train across the North Pacific, which is also seen in observations. Our results provide further evidence that anthropogenic aerosols may have contributed to observed cooling in the Pacific in this period. However, the simulated cooling in response to aerosol forcing is substantially weaker than the warming induced by greenhouse gases, resulting in simulations that are warming faster than observations, and further highlighting the need to understand whether models correctly simulate atmospheric circulation responses.

Reduced effective radiative forcing from cloud–aerosol interactions (ERF<sub>aci</sub>) with improved treatment of early aerosol growth in an Earth system model

Abstract. Historically, aerosols of anthropogenic origin have offset some of the warming from increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The strength of this negative aerosol forcing, however, is highly uncertain – especially the part originating from cloud–aerosol interactions. An important part of this uncertainty originates from our lack of knowledge about pre-industrial aerosols and how many of these would have acted as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). In order to simulate CCN concentrations in models, we must adequately model secondary aerosols, including new particle formation (NPF) and early growth, which contributes a large part of atmospheric CCN. In this study, we investigate the effective radiative forcing (ERF) from cloud–aerosol interactions (ERFaci) with an improved treatment of early particle growth, as presented in Blichner et al. (2021). We compare the improved scheme to the default scheme, OsloAero, which are both embedded in the atmospheric component of the Norwegian Earth System Model v2 (NorESM2). The improved scheme, OsloAeroSec, includes a sectional scheme that treats the growth of particles from 5–39.6 nm in diameter, which thereafter inputs the particles to the smallest mode in the pre-existing modal aerosol scheme. The default scheme parameterizes the growth of particles from nucleation up to the smallest mode, a process that can take several hours. The explicit treatment of early growth in OsloAeroSec, on the other hand, captures the changes in atmospheric conditions during this growth time in terms of air mass mixing, transport, and condensation and coagulation. We find that the ERFaci with the sectional scheme is −1.16 W m−2, which is 0.13 W m−2 weaker compared to the default scheme. This reduction originates from OsloAeroSec producing more particles than the default scheme in pristine, low-aerosol-concentration areas and fewer NPF particles in high-aerosol areas. We find, perhaps surprisingly, that NPF inhibits cloud droplet activation in polluted and/or high-aerosol-concentration regions because the NPF particles increase the condensation sink and reduce the growth of the larger particles which may otherwise activate. This means that in these high-aerosol regions, the model with the lowest NPF – OsloAeroSec – will have the highest cloud droplet activation and thus more reflective clouds. In pristine and/or low-aerosol regions, however, NPF enhances cloud droplet activation because the NPF particles themselves tend to activate. Lastly, we find that sulfate emissions in the present-day simulations increase the hygroscopicity of secondary aerosols compared to pre-industrial simulations. This makes NPF particles more relevant for cloud droplet activation in the present day than the pre-industrial atmosphere because increased hygroscopicity means they can activate at smaller sizes.

Climate response to the spatial and temporal evolutions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing

Climate response to the spatial and temporal evolutions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing

Hemisphere-asymmetric tropical cyclones response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing

How anthropogenic forcing could change tropical cyclones (TCs) is a keen societal concern owing to its significant socio-economic impacts. However, a global picture of the anthropogenic aerosol effect on TCs has not yet emerged. Here we show that anthropogenic aerosol emission can reduce northern hemisphere (NH) TCs but increase southern hemisphere (SH) TCs primarily through altering vertical wind shear and mid-tropospheric upward motion in the TC formation zones. These circulation changes are driven by anthropogenic aerosol-induced NH-cooler-than-SH and NH-increased versus SH-decreased meridional (equator to mid-latitudes) temperature gradients. The cooler NH produces a low-level southward cross-equatorial transport of moist static energy, weakening the NH ascent in the TC formation zones; meanwhile, the increased meridional temperature gradients strengthen vertical wind shear, reducing NH TC genesis. The opposite is true for the SH. The results may help to constrain the models’ uncertainty in the future TC projection. Reduction of anthropogenic aerosol emission may increase the NH TCs threat.

Origins of a Relatively Tight Lower Bound on Anthropogenic Aerosol Radiative Forcing from Bayesian Analysis of Historical Observations

AbstractA variety of empirical estimates have been published for the lower bounds on aerosol radiative forcing, clustered around −1.0 or −2.0 W m−2. The reasons for obtaining such different constraints are not well understood. In this study, we explore bounds on aerosol radiative forcing using a Bayesian model of aerosol forcing and Earth’s multi-time-scale temperature response to radiative forcing. We first demonstrate the ability of a simple aerosol model to emulate aerosol radiative forcing simulated by 10 general circulation models. A joint inference of climate sensitivity and effective aerosol forcing from historical surface temperatures is then made over 1850–2019. We obtain a maximum likelihood estimate of aerosol radiative forcing of −0.85 W m−2 (5%–95% credible interval from −1.3 to −0.50 W m−2) for 2010–19 relative to 1750 and an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3.4°C (5%–95% credible interval from 1.8° to 6.1°C). The wide range of climate sensitivity reflects difficulty in empirically constraining long-term responses using historical temperatures, as noted elsewhere. A relatively tight bound on aerosol forcing is nonetheless obtained from the structure of temperature and aerosol precursor emissions and, particularly, from the rapid growth in emissions between 1950 and 1980. Obtaining a 5th percentile lower bound on aerosol forcing around −2.0 W m−2 requires prescribing internal climate variance that is a factor of 5 larger than the CMIP6 mean and assuming large, correlated errors in global temperature observations. Ocean heat uptake observations may further constrain aerosol radiative forcing but require a better understanding of the relationship between time-variable radiative feedbacks and radiative forcing.

Understanding the surface temperature response and its uncertainty to CO<sub>2</sub>, CH<sub>4</sub>, black carbon, and sulfate

Abstract. Understanding the regional surface temperature responses to different anthropogenic climate forcing agents, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols, is crucial for understanding past and future regional climate changes. In modern climate models, the regional temperature responses vary greatly for all major forcing agents, but the causes of this variability are poorly understood. Here, we analyze how changes in atmospheric and oceanic energy fluxes due to perturbations in different anthropogenic climate forcing agents lead to changes in global and regional surface temperatures. We use climate model data on idealized perturbations in four major anthropogenic climate forcing agents (CO2, CH4, sulfate, and black carbon aerosols) from Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) climate experiments for six climate models (CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, NCAR-CESM1-CAM4, NorESM1, MIROC-SPRINTARS, GISS-E2). Particularly, we decompose the regional energy budget contributions to the surface temperature responses due to changes in longwave and shortwave fluxes under clear-sky and cloudy conditions, surface albedo changes, and oceanic and atmospheric energy transport. We also analyze the regional model-to-model temperature response spread due to each of these components. The global surface temperature response stems from changes in longwave emissivity for greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4) and mainly from changes in shortwave clear-sky fluxes for aerosols (sulfate and black carbon). The global surface temperature response normalized by effective radiative forcing is nearly the same for all forcing agents (0.63, 0.54, 0.57, 0.61 K W−1 m2). While the main physical processes driving global temperature responses vary between forcing agents, for all forcing agents the model-to-model spread in temperature responses is dominated by differences in modeled changes in longwave clear-sky emissivity. Furthermore, in polar regions for all forcing agents the differences in surface albedo change is a key contributor to temperature responses and its spread. For black carbon, the modeled differences in temperature response due to shortwave clear-sky radiation are also important in the Arctic. Regional model-to-model differences due to changes in shortwave and longwave cloud radiative effect strongly modulate each other. For aerosols, clouds play a major role in the model spread of regional surface temperature responses. In regions with strong aerosol forcing, the model-to-model differences arise from shortwave clear-sky responses and are strongly modulated by combined temperature responses to oceanic and atmospheric heat transport in the models.

Forcing Convection to Aggregate Using Diabatic Heating Perturbations.

Tropical deep convection can aggregate into large clusters, which can have impacts on the local humidity and precipitation. Sea surface temperature (SST) gradients have been shown to organize convection, yet there has been little work done to investigate the impact of diabatic heating perturbations in the atmosphere on the aggregation of convection. Here we investigate how anomalous diabatic heating of the atmospheric column, through an idealized aerosol plume, affects the existence and mechanisms of convective aggregation in non‐rotating, global radiative‐convective equilibrium simulations. We show that the aerosol forcing has the ability to increase the degree of aggregation, especially at lower SSTs. Detailed investigation shows that the diabatic heating source incites a thermally driven circulation, forced by the shortwave perturbation. The increase in aggregation is caused in part by this circulation, and in part by the longwave heating anomalies occurring due to the surface convergence of moisture and convection. At higher SSTs, longwave feedbacks are crucial for the aggregation of convection, even with the shortwave heating perturbation. At lower SSTs, convection is able to aggregate with the shortwave perturbation in the absence of longwave feedbacks. These perturbations provide a link to studying the effects of absorbing aerosol plumes on convection, for example during the Indian monsoon season. We argue that, as there is aggregation for plumes with realistic aerosol absorption optical depths, this could be an analogue for real‐world organization in regions with high pollution.

Absorbing aerosol decreases cloud cover in cloud‐resolving simulations over Germany

AbstractAerosol can affect clouds in various ways. Beside the microphysical impact of aerosol particles on cloud formation, the interference of aerosol with atmospheric radiation leads to changes in local heating, surface fluxes and thus mesoscale circulations, all of which may also modify clouds. Rather little is known about these so‐called semi‐direct effects in realistic settings – a reason why this study investigates the impact of absorbing aerosol particles on cloud and radiation fields over Germany. Using advanced high‐resolution simulations with grid spacings of 312 and 625 m, numerical experiments with different aerosol optical properties are contrasted using purely scattering aerosol as a control case and realistic absorbing aerosol as a perturbation. The combined effect of surface dimming and atmospheric heating induces positive temperature and negative moisture anomalies between 800 and 900 hPa, impacting low‐level cloud formation. Decreased relative humidity as well as increased atmospheric stability below clouds lead to a reduction of low‐level cloud cover, liquid water path and precipitation. It is further found that direct and semi‐direct effects of absorbing aerosol forcing have similar magnitudes and contribute equally to a reduction of net radiation at the top of the atmosphere.

Suppressed Late‐20th Century Warming in CMIP6 Models Explained by Forcing and Feedbacks

AbstractFor the 1960–2000 period, the latest generation of climate models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 [CMIP6]) shows less global mean surface temperature change relative to pre‐industrial than that seen in observations. In contrast, the previous generation of models (CMIP5) performed well over this period. It has been hypothesized that this suppressed late‐20th Century warming seen in CMIP6 is caused by a stronger aerosol forcing. However, we find this to be only part of the story. Not only is the aerosol forcing marginally more negative in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5, the greenhouse gas forcing in CMIP6 is also weaker than in CMIP5. These forcing differences are amplified by differences in climate sensitivity between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble, which leads to both a stronger aerosol cooling over 1960–1990 and a stronger greenhouse gas induced warming from 1990, returning the warming post‐2000 toward the observed level.

Radiative effects of reduced aerosol emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the future recovery

The pandemic in 2020 caused an abrupt change in the emission of anthropogenic aerosols and their precursors. We estimate the associated change in the aerosol radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and the surface. To that end, we perform new simulations with the CMIP6 global climate model EC-Earth3. The simulations use the here newly created data for the anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated effect on clouds from the simple plumes parameterization (MACv2-SP), based on revised SO2 and NH3 emission scenarios. Our results highlight the small impact of the pandemic on the global aerosol radiative forcing in 2020 compared to the CMIP6 scenario SSP2-4.5 of the order of +0.04Wm−2, which is small compared to the natural year-to-year variability in the radiation budget. Natural variability also limits the ability to detect a meaningful regional difference in the anthropogenic aerosol radiative effects. We identify the best chances to find a significant change in radiation at the surface during cloud-free conditions for regions that were strongly polluted in the past years. The post-pandemic recovery scenarios indicate a spread in the aerosol forcing of −0.68 to −0.38Wm−2 for 2050 relative to the pre-industrial, which translates to a difference of +0.05 to −0.25Wm−2 compared to the 2050 baseline from SSP2-4.5. This spread falls within the present-day uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing and the CMIP6 spread in aerosol forcing at the end of the 21st century. We release the new MACv2-SP data for studies on the climate response to the pandemic and the recovery scenarios. Our 2050 forcing estimates suggest that sustained aerosol emission reductions during the post-pandemic recovery cause a stronger climate response than in 2020, i.e., there is a delayed influence of the pandemic on climate.

Decomposing Effective Radiative Forcing Due to Aerosol Cloud Interactions by Global Cloud Regimes

AbstractQuantifying effective radiative forcing due to aerosol‐cloud interactions (E) remains a largely uncertain process, and the magnitude remains unconstrained in general circulation models. Previous studies focus on the magnitude of arising from all cloud types, or examine it in the framework of dynamical regimes. Aerosol forcing due to aerosol‐cloud interactions in the HadGEM3‐GA7.1 global climate model is decomposed into several global observational cloud regimes. Regimes are assigned to model gridboxes and forcing due to aerosol‐cloud interactions is calculated on a regime‐by‐regime basis with a 20‐year averaging period. Patterns of regime occurrence are in good agreement with satellite observations. ERFACI is then further decomposed into three terms, representing radiative changes within a given regime, transitions between different cloud regimes, and nonlinear effects. The total global mean ERFACI is Wm−2. When decomposed, simulated ERFACI is greatest in the thick stratocumulus regime (−0.51 Wm−2).

On the Emergence of Human Influence on Surface Air Temperature Changes Over India

AbstractHuman activities in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and aerosols resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels have been shown to have affected the temperature of the Earth on global and continental scales. The surface air temperature (TAS) over India has also been observed to be increasing over the last 100 years. Understanding the underlying causes of regional climate change over India can help in developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Differentiating signals of externally forced climate changes from the noise of natural internal variability generally becomes more difficult as spatial scale reduces. Therefore detecting and attributing the influence of external forcings such as GHGs and aerosols is harder at local and regional scales. In this study, we applied a detection and attribution (D&A) method to study annual and seasonal mean TAS over the Indian region. We found that the observed warming over India from 1906 to 2005 cannot be explained by natural climate variability alone. We found that the warming is largely driven by the increase in GHGs, and partially offset by regional anthropogenic emissions of aerosols. These results were confirmed for the shorter 1956–2005 period, but results were sensitive to the choice of observational data set. The changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability or natural external forcings alone, but are compatible with the responses to combined anthropogenic GHG and aerosol forcings.

Black Carbon over Wuhan, China: Seasonal Variations in Its Optical Properties, Radiative Forcing and Contribution to Atmospheric Aerosols

As an important fraction of light-absorbing particles, black carbon (BC) has a significant warming effect, despite accounting for a small proportion of total aerosols. A comprehensive investigation was conducted on the characteristics of atmospheric aerosols and BC particles over Wuhan, China. Mass concentration, optical properties, and radiative forcing of total aerosols and BC were estimated using multi-source observation data. Results showed that the BC concentration monthly mean varied from 2.19 to 5.33 μg m−3. The BC aerosol optical depth (AOD) maximum monthly mean (0.026) occurred in winter, whereas the maximum total AOD (1.75) occurred in summer. Under polluted-air conditions, both aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) and BC radiative forcing (BCRF) at the bottom of the atmosphere (BOA) were strongest in summer, with values of −83.01 and −11.22 W m−2, respectively. In summer, ARF at BOA on polluted-air days was more than two-fold that on clean-air days. In addition, compared with clean-air days, BCRF at BOA on polluted-air days was increased by 76% and 73% in summer and winter, respectively. The results indicate an important influence of particulate air pollution on ARF and BCRF. Furthermore, the average contribution of BCRF to ARF was 13.8%, even though the proportion of BC in PM2.5 was only 5.1%.

Radiative Forcing of Nitrate Aerosols From 1975 to 2010 as Simulated by MOSAIC Module in CESM2‐MAM4

AbstractWe incorporate the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) module in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) Community Atmosphere Model Version 6 with interactive chemistry (CAM6‐chem), and couple it with the four mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4). The MOSAIC module is used to simulate the thermodynamics of the gas‐aerosol mass exchange, with a special focus on simulating nitrate aerosol. By comparing against ground and satellite observations, we found that the MOSAIC/MAM4 scheme performs reasonably well in simulating spatiotemporal distributions of aerosols, including nitrate aerosol. We conducted a series of model experiments with and without nitrate aerosols, and examined the radiative effect (RE) associated with nitrate aerosols in 1975, 2000, and 2010, and accessed the radiative forcing (RF) of nitrate aerosols between the present day and pre‐industrial periods. Comparing with the nitrate aerosol RE, we predicted relatively small RF of anthropogenic nitrate aerosol from aerosol‐radiation interactions (RFari: −0.014 W m−2) and large RF from aerosol‐cloud interactions (RFaci: −0.219 W m−2). Regional signatures of nitrate RE/RF are noticeable and important: for instance, very small changes in REari in Europe and USA, but 2.8–3 times increases in REari in India and China from 1975 to 2010, while REaci/RFaci in China is a warming effect due to the competing effect between sulfate and nitrate aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei.

Chemical composition and radiative forcing of atmospheric aerosols over the high-altitude Western Himalayas of India

Aerosol behavior over the Himalayas plays an important role in the regional climate of South Asia. Previous studies at high-altitude observatories have provided evidence of the impact of long-range transport of pollutants from the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). However, little information exists for the valley areas in the high Himalayas where significant local anthropogenic emissions can act as additional sources of short-living climate forcers and pollutants. The valley areas host most economic activities based on agriculture, forestry, and pilgrimage during every summer season. We report here first measurements at a valley site at ~2600 m a.s.l. on the trek to the Gangotri glacier (Gaumukh), in the Western Himalayas, where local infrastructures for atmospheric measurements are absent. The study comprised short-term measurement of aerosols, chemical characterization, and estimation of aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) during the winter and summer periods (2015-2016). The particulate matter mass concentrations were observed to be higher than the permissible limit during the summer campaigns. We obtained clear evidence of the impact of local anthropogenic sources: particulate nitrate is associated with coarse aerosol particles, the black carbon (BC) mass fraction appears undiluted with respect to measurements performed in the lower Himalayas, and in winter, both BC and sulfate concentrations in the valley site are well above the background levels reported from literature studies for mountain peaks. Finally, high concentrations of trace metals such as copper point to anthropogenic activities, including combustion and agriculture. While most studies in the Himalayas have addressed pollution in the high Himalayas in terms of transport from IGP, our study provides clear evidence that local sources cannot be overlooked over the high-altitude Himalayas. The estimated direct clear-sky ARF was estimated to be in the range of -0.1 to +1.6 W m-2, with significant heating in the atmosphere over the high-altitude Himalayan study site. These results indicate the need to establish systematic aerosol monitoring activities in the high Himalayan valleys.

Estimating centennial-scale changes in global terrestrial near-surface wind speed based on CMIP6 GCMs

A global terrestrial stilling in recent decades has been reported, but the centennial-scale changes in global terrestrial near-surface wind speed (NSWS) and the potential contributing factors are yet to be revealed. Consequently, in this study, centennial-scale changes in global terrestrial NSWS are investigated based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 datasets, and that the potential factors causing those changes are detected. The results show that the global annual mean NSWS increased from 1850 to 1967 (+0.0045 m s−1 decade−1, p< 0.01), with significant increases in North America, Europe, Africa, and South Asia. However, the NSWS decreased from 1968 to 2014 (−0.0044 m s−1 decade−1, p < 0.01), significantly so in the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The seasonal mean NSWS also increased before the 1960s and decreased thereafter. However, the NSWS over South America and most of Southern Africa increased during the study period. The changes in NSWS were caused mainly by changes in the number of strong windy days. The increase in NSWS from 1850 to 1967 could be attributed to internal variability, and the decrease in NSWS from 1968 to 2014 could be attributed to natural, aerosol, and greenhouse-gas forcings. However, internal variability acted mainly to increase the NSWS from 1968 to 2014, and so it is suggested that the contributions of external forcings to the global terrestrial stilling after the 1960s were considerable.