Aerosol Direct Effect Research Articles

Direct and semi-direct effects of aerosol climatologies on long-term climate simulations over Europe

This study compares the direct and semi-direct aerosol effects of different annual cycles of tropospheric aerosol loads for Europe from 1950 to 2009 using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, which is laterally forced by reanalysis data and run using prescribed, climatological aerosol optical properties. These properties differ with respect to the analysis strategy and the time window, and are then used for the same multi-decadal period. Five simulations with different aerosol loads and one control simulation without any tropospheric aerosols are integrated and compared. Two common limitations of our simulation strategy, to fully assess direct and semi-direct aerosol effects, are the applied observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice conditions, and the lack of short-term variations in the aerosol load. Nevertheless, the impact of different aerosol climatologies on common regional climate model simulations can be assessed. The results of all aerosol-including simulations show a distinct reduction in solar irradiance at the surface compared with that in the control simulation. This reduction is strongest in the summer season and is balanced primarily by a weakening of turbulent heat fluxes and to a lesser extent by a decrease in longwave emissions. Consequently, the seasonal mean surface cooling is modest. The temperature profile responses are characterized by a shallow near-surface cooling and a dominant warming up to the mid-troposphere caused by aerosol absorption. The resulting stabilization of stratification leads to reduced cloud cover and less precipitation. A decrease in cloud water and ice content over Central Europe in summer possibly reinforce aerosol absorption and thus strengthen the vertical warming. The resulting radiative forcings are positive. The robustness of the results was demonstrated by performing a simulation with very strong aerosol forcing, which lead to qualitatively similar results. A distinct added value over the default aerosol setup of Tanre et al. (1984) was found in the simulations with more recent aerosol data sets for solar irradiance. The improvements are largest under low cloud conditions, while overestimated cloud cover in all setups causes a common underestimation of low and medium values of solar irradiance. In addition, the prevalent cold bias in the COSMO-CLM is reduced in winter and spring when using updated aerosol data. Our results emphasize the importance of semi-direct aerosol effects, especially over Central Europe in terms of changes in turbulent fluxes and changes in cloud properties. We also suggest to replace the default Tanre et al. (1984) aerosol climatology with more recent and realistic data sets. Thereby, a better model performance in comparison to observations can be achieved, or the masking of model shortcomings due to a too strong direct aerosol forcing thus far is prevented.

PENGARUH AEROSOL TERHADAP FLUKS RADIASI NETO DI LAPISAN ATAS ATMOSFER DAN DI PERMUKAAN BERDASAR DATA SATELIT [INFLUENCE OF AEROSOL ON NET RADIATION FLUX AT THE TOP OF ATMOSPHERE AND SURFACE BASED ON SATELLITE

The direct effects of aerosols on radiation budget in Indonesia have been analyzed based on radiation flux net data from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra. Radiation budget calculated including short wave and long-wave radiation. Data from March 2000 until February 2010, processed using Grads version 2 to obtain aerosol radiative forcing value. Net radiation in clean sky, estimated using slope method. The analysis showed high temporal variation of aerosols density in the atmosphere with a value AODmax> 2, which generally causes decreases net radiation flux, so providing a cooling effect. The influence of aerosols on the net radiation flux can be very clearly seen in the case of forest fires. AOD in 2006 increased and caused radiation flux anomalies ranging from -9 watt/m-2 to -14 watts/m-2, with the largest decline occurred in the surface. From all the data period, aerosol radiative forcing at TOA level (ARFTOA) on Indonesia was -0.49 watt/m-2 and aerosol radiative forcing at the surface level (ARFSurf) on Indonesia was -17.72 watt/m-2, that influence to the Indonesian climate condition.

Multi-year downscaling application of two-way coupled WRF v3.4 and CMAQ v5.0.2 over east Asia for regional climate and air quality modeling: model evaluation and aerosol direct effects

Abstract. In this study, a regional coupled climate–chemistry modeling system using the dynamical downscaling technique was established by linking the global Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the regional two-way coupled Weather Research and Forecasting – Community Multi-scale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model for the purpose of comprehensive assessments of regional climate change and air quality and their interactions within one modeling framework. The modeling system was applied over east Asia for a multi-year climatological application during 2006–2010, driven with CESM downscaling data under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5), along with a short-term air quality application in representative months in 2013 that was driven with a reanalysis dataset. A comprehensive model evaluation was conducted against observations from surface networks and satellite observations to assess the model's performance. This study presents the first application and evaluation of the two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ model for climatological simulations using the dynamical downscaling technique. The model was able to satisfactorily predict major meteorological variables. The improved statistical performance for the 2 m temperature (T2) in this study (with a mean bias of −0.6 °C) compared with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-models might be related to the use of the regional model WRF and the bias-correction technique applied for CESM downscaling. The model showed good ability to predict PM2. 5 in winter (with a normalized mean bias (NMB) of 6.4 % in 2013) and O3 in summer (with an NMB of 18.2 % in 2013) in terms of statistical performance and spatial distributions. Compared with global models that tend to underpredict PM2. 5 concentrations in China, WRF-CMAQ was able to capture the high PM2. 5 concentrations in urban areas. In general, the two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ model performed well for both climatological and air quality applications. The coupled modeling system with direct aerosol feedbacks predicted aerosol optical depth relatively well and significantly reduced the overprediction in downward shortwave radiation at the surface (SWDOWN) over polluted regions in China. The performance of cloud variables was not as good as other meteorological variables, and underpredictions of cloud fraction resulted in overpredictions of SWDOWN and underpredictions of shortwave and longwave cloud forcing. The importance of climate–chemistry interactions was demonstrated via the impacts of aerosol direct effects on climate and air quality. The aerosol effects on climate and air quality in east Asia (e.g., SWDOWN and T2 decreased by 21.8 W m−2 and 0.45 °C, respectively, and most pollutant concentrations increased by 4.8–9.5 % in January over China's major cities) were more significant than in other regions because of higher aerosol loadings that resulted from severe regional pollution, which indicates the need for applying online-coupled models over east Asia for regional climate and air quality modeling and to study the important climate–chemistry interactions. This work established a baseline for WRF-CMAQ simulations for a future period under the RCP4.5 climate scenario, which will be presented in a future paper.

Short-term aerosol radiative effects and their regional difference during heavy haze episodes in January 2013 in China

Short-term direct effects of aerosols on surface shortwave radiation and its regional difference during heavy haze episodes in January 2013 in China are investigated using the offline Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) - the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ)- second Sun-Edward-Slingo radiative transfer (SES2) model system. The aerosol concentrations are first generated using the WRF-CMAQ model simulations and then corrected based on the observed concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5. The atmospheric profile data produced by the WRF model and the corrected aerosol concentrations are used as inputs to the SES2 model to calculate the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct solar irradiance (DIR) at the surface for a period of heavy haze episodes in January 2013 in China. The effects of aerosol on the GHI and DIR at the surface are then analyzed. The modeled radiation is evaluated against the observations first and the results show some improvement due to the correction for the aerosol concentrations. The aerosol shortwave radiative effects are determined by the difference between the model calculations with and without the inclusion of aerosols. It is found that the short-term aerosol radiative impacts during heavy haze days are very large, range between 100 and 500 W m-2. The aerosol concentrations have a large spatial variation with the highest concentration occurring in the areas of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, which causes a large difference in the radiative effect nation wide. In addition to the total concentration, the aerosol vertical distributions s also vary from the north to south in China and this leads to a significant difference in radiative effect even when the PM10 concentration is similar at three regions.

Multi-year application of WRF-CAM5 over East Asia-Part II: Interannual variability, trend analysis, and aerosol indirect effects

Following a comprehensive evaluation of WRF-CAM5 in Part I, Part II describes analyses of interannual variability, multi-year variation trends, and the direct, indirect, and total effects of anthropogenic aerosols. The interannual variations of chemical column and surface concentrations, and ozone (O3)/particulate matter (PM) indicators are strongly correlated to anthropogenic emission changes. Despite model biases, the model captures well the observed interannual variations of temperature at 2-m, cloud fraction, shortwave cloud forcing, downwelling shortwave radiation, cloud droplet number concentration, column O3, and column formaldehyde (HCHO) for the whole domain. While the model reproduces the volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited regimes of O3 chemistry at sites in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and from the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET) and the degree of sulfate neutralization at the EANET sites, it has limited capability in capturing the interannual variations of the ratio of O3 and nitrogen dioxide (O3/NO2) and PM chemical regime indicators, due to uncertainties in the emissions of precursors for O3 and secondary PM, the model assumption for ammonium bisulfate (NH4HSO4) as well as lack of gas/particle partitioning of total ammonia and total nitrate. While the variation trends in multi-year periods in aerosol optical depth and column concentrations of carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and NO2 are mainly caused by anthropogenic emissions, those of major meteorological and cloud variables partly reflect feedbacks of chemistry to meteorological variables. The impacts of anthropogenic aerosol indirect effects either dominate or play an important role in the aerosol total effects for most cloud and chemical predictions, whereas anthropogenic aerosol direct effects influence most meteorological and radiation variables. The direct, indirect, and total effects of anthropogenic aerosols exhibit a strong interannual variability in 2001, 2006, and 2011.

Simulated impacts of direct radiative effects of scattering and absorbing aerosols on surface layer aerosol concentrations in China during a heavily polluted event in February 2014

AbstractWe quantified aerosol direct radiative effects on surface layer concentrations of aerosols during a heavily polluted event in the North China Plain (NCP, 35.4°N–41.2°N, 113.3°E–119.3°E) during 21–27 February 2014, using the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF‐Chem) Model. Comparisons of model results with observations showed that the WRF‐Chem model reproduced the spatial and temporal variations of meteorological variables reasonably well, but overestimated average PM2.5 concentration by 21.7% over the NCP during 21–27 February. The simulated direct radiative effects of total, absorbing, and scattering aerosols reduced the planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights by 111.4 m, 35.7 m, and 70.7 m, respectively, averaged over NCP and 21–27 February. The direct radiative effects of total aerosols induced increases in aerosol concentrations by 11.5% for , 29.5% for , 29.6% for , 28.7% for organic carbon (OC), 26.7% for black carbon (BC), and 20.4% for PM2.5, respectively, averaged over the NCP during 21–27 February 2014. The increase in PM2.5 concentration averaged over the NCP and the haze event was 29.6 μg m−3 (16.8%) due to radiative effect of scattering aerosols, as a result of the decreases in PBL height and changes in secondary aerosol production rates. The corresponding increase in PM2.5 concentration owing to absorbing aerosols was 2.1 μg m−3 (1.0%), resulting from the offsetting impacts of changes in PBL height, wind near the surface, and chemical processes.

Ozone and haze pollution weakens net primary productivity in China

Abstract. Atmospheric pollutants have both beneficial and detrimental effects on carbon uptake by land ecosystems. Surface ozone (O3) damages leaf photosynthesis by oxidizing plant cells, while aerosols promote carbon uptake by increasing diffuse radiation and exert additional influences through concomitant perturbations to meteorology and hydrology. China is currently the world's largest emitter of both carbon dioxide and short-lived air pollutants. The land ecosystems of China are estimated to provide a carbon sink, but it remains unclear whether air pollution acts to inhibit or promote carbon uptake. Here, we employ Earth system modeling and multiple measurement datasets to assess the separate and combined effects of anthropogenic O3 and aerosol pollution on net primary productivity (NPP) in China. In the present day, O3 reduces annual NPP by 0.6 Pg C (14 %) with a range from 0.4 Pg C (low O3 sensitivity) to 0.8 Pg C (high O3 sensitivity). In contrast, aerosol direct effects increase NPP by 0.2 Pg C (5 %) through the combination of diffuse radiation fertilization, reduced canopy temperatures, and reduced evaporation leading to higher soil moisture. Consequently, the net effects of O3 and aerosols decrease NPP by 0.4 Pg C (9 %) with a range from 0.2 Pg C (low O3 sensitivity) to 0.6 Pg C (high O3 sensitivity). However, precipitation inhibition from combined aerosol direct and indirect effects reduces annual NPP by 0.2 Pg C (4 %), leading to a net air pollution suppression of 0.8 Pg C (16 %) with a range from 0.6 Pg C (low O3 sensitivity) to 1.0 Pg C (high O3 sensitivity). Our results reveal strong dampening effects of air pollution on the land carbon uptake in China today. Following the current legislation emission scenario, this suppression will be further increased by the year 2030, mainly due to a continuing increase in surface O3. However, the maximum technically feasible reduction scenario could drastically relieve the current level of NPP damage by 70 % in 2030, offering protection of this critical ecosystem service and the mitigation of long-term global warming.

Investigation of aerosol effects on the Arctic surface temperature during the diurnal cycle: part 2 – Separating aerosol effects

ABSTRACTTemperature changes in the Arctic due to anthropogenic climate change are larger in magnitude than those at lower latitudes, with sea ice extent and thickness diminishing since the dawn of the satellite era. Aerosols play a role in determining the changes to the Arctic surface temperature. While Part 1 of this two‐part study investigated the changes in Arctic surface temperature due to the total aerosol effect, in Part 2, the total aerosol effect is separated into the changes caused by the aerosol direct effect, the aerosol semi‐direct effect, and the aerosol indirect effects through the use of additional Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) runs. While Part 1 of the study showed that aerosols may have both a cooling and warming effect, largely depending upon the time of day and aerosol concentration, Part 2 of this study shows that the indirect effects are the dominant component of the total aerosol effect on the cooling and warming of the Arctic surface temperature throughout the diurnal cycle. It is also shown that the size distribution of aerosols is important, as smaller aerosols dominate the aerosol indirect effects. The aerosol direct effect contributes to cooling in the region, while the semi‐direct effect is negligible.

Direct radiative effect of carbonaceous aerosols from crop residue burning during the summer harvest season in East China

Abstract. East China experiences extensive crop residue burnings in fields during harvest season. The direct radiative effect (DRE) of carbonaceous aerosols from crop residue burning in June 2013 in East China was investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). Absorption of organic aerosol (OA) in the presence of brown carbon was considered using the parameterization of Saleh et al. (2014), in which the imaginary part of the OA refractive index is a function of wavelength and the ratio of black carbon (BC) and OA. The carbonaceous emissions from crop fires were estimated using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire radiative power (FRP) product with a localized crop-burning-sourced BC-to-organic carbon (OC) ratio emission ratio of 0.27. Evaluation of the model results with in situ measurements of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2. 5) chemical composition, MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) detections and meteorological observations showed that this model was able to reproduce the magnitude, spatial variation and optical characteristics of carbonaceous aerosol pollution. The observed BC and OC peak concentrations at the site in Suixi, Anhui province, during the 2013 wheat burning season reached 55.3 µg m−3 and 157.9 µg m−3. WRF-Chem simulations reproduced these trends with a correlation coefficient of 0.74, estimating that crop residue burning contributed 86 and 90 % of peak BC and OC, respectively. The simulated hourly DRE from crop residue burning at the top of atmosphere (TOA) reached a maximum of +22.66 W m−2 at the Suixi site. On average, the simulations showed that the crop residue burning introduced a net positive DRE of +0.14 W m−2 at TOA throughout East China, with BC from this source as the main heating contributor (+0.79 W m−2). The OA DRE from crop burning (−0.22 W m−2) was a combined effect of the positive DRE of absorption (+0.21 W m−2) and a stronger negative DRE of scattering (−0.43 W m−2). Sensitivity tests showed that the DRE of OA absorption strongly depended on the imaginary part of the OA refractive index, the BC-to-OA emission ratio from crop residue burning and the assumed mixing state of the aerosol, whereby the volume mixing treatment resulted in a higher positive DRE compared to the core–shell treatment. The BC mixing state and associated absorption enhancement during BC aging processes will be investigated in detail in future research.

Is the average photon energy a unique characteristic of the spectral distribution of global irradiance?

The average photon energy (APE) has become a popular index to qualitatively assess whether shorter or longer wavelengths are enhanced in a specific spectral distribution of irradiance when compared to the AM1.5G standard spectrum. According to some previous assessments, this index might uniquely distinguish individual global tilted irradiance and global horizontal irradiance spectra. This paper basically applies the same methodology as that used in these studies, i.e., a statistical analysis based on spectral distributions grouped in 0.02-eV APE bins and their standard deviation across all 50-nm bands into which the wavelength range under scrutiny (350–1050nm) is divided. Two years of spectral global tilted irradiance datasets collected at two Spanish locations, 333km apart, are analyzed here. The same brand and model of spectroradiometer is used in each site with identical experimental protocols. It is found here that the coefficient of variation—a more meaningful statistical coefficient than the standard deviation to quantify dispersion around the mean—remains below 3.3% over the 450–900-nm waveband, whereas values up to 5–11% occur outside of it. It is shown that these higher values can be explained by the separate or combined impacts of experimental uncertainty and the direct effect of aerosols and water vapor. Based on radiative transfer principles related to these two atmospheric constituents, it is argued that APE cannot be a unique characteristic of the complete spectrum, thus confirming previous results that pertained to direct irradiance only. In practical terms, however, it is reasonable to ascertain that APE may be considered approximately unique relative to the spectrum distribution under the climate of the two sites under scrutiny over the limited 450–900-nm spectral range. This conclusion presumably holds for most of Spain, or even for locations with sunny inland climates similar to those of Jaén and Madrid.

Significant impacts of heterogeneous reactions on the chemical composition and mixing state of dust particles: A case study during dust events over northern China

The impact of heterogeneous reactions on the chemical components and mixing state of dust particles are investigated by observations and an air quality model over northern China between March 27, 2015 and April 2, 2015. Synergetic observations were conducted using a polarization optical particle counter (POPC), a depolarized two-wavelength Lidar and filter samples in Beijing. During this period, dust plume passed through Beijing on March 28, and flew back on March 29 because of synoptic weather changes. Mineral dust mixed with anthropogenic pollutants was simulated using the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS) to examine the role of heterogeneous processes on the dust. A comparison of observations shows that the NAQPMS successfully reproduces the time series of the vertical profile, particulate matter concentration, and chemical components of fine mode (diameter ≤ 2.5 μm) and coarse mode (2.5 μm < diameter ≤ 10 μm) particles. After considering the heterogeneous reactions, the simulated nitrate, ammonium, and sulfate are in better agreement with the observed values during this period. The modeling results with observations show that heterogeneous reactions are the major mechanisms producing nitrate reaching 19 μg/m3, and sulfate reaching 7 μg/m3, on coarse mode dust particles, which were almost 100% of the coarse mode nitrate and sulfate. The heterogeneous reactions are also important for fine mode secondary aerosols, for producing 17% of nitrate and 11% of sulfate on fine mode dust particles, with maximum mass concentrations of 6 μg/m3 and 4 μg/m3. In contrast, due to uptake of acid gases (e.g. HNO3 and SO2) by dust particles, the fine mode anthropogenic ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate decreased. As a result, the total fine mode nitrate decreased with a maximum of 14 μg/m3, while the total fine mode sulfate increased with a maximum of 2 μg/m3. Because of heterogeneous reactions, 15% of fine mode secondary inorganic aerosols and the entire coarse mode nitrate and sulfate were internally mixed with dust particles. The significant alterations of the chemical composition and mixing state of particles due to heterogeneous reactions are important for the direct and indirect climate effects of dust and anthropogenic aerosols.

Direct radiative effect of aerosols based on PARASOL and OMI satellite observations

AbstractAccurate portrayal of the aerosol characteristics is crucial to determine aerosol contribution to the Earth's radiation budget. We employ novel satellite retrievals to make a new measurement‐based estimate of the shortwave direct radiative effect of aerosols (DREA), both over land and ocean. Global satellite measurements of aerosol optical depth, single‐scattering albedo (SSA), and phase function from PARASOL (Polarization and Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences coupled with Observations from a Lidar) are used in synergy with OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) SSA. Aerosol information is combined with land‐surface bidirectional reflectance distribution function and cloud characteristics from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite products. Eventual gaps in observations are filled with the state‐of‐the‐art global aerosol model ECHAM5‐HAM2. It is found that our estimate of DREA is largely insensitive to model choice. Radiative transfer calculations show that DREA at top‐of‐atmosphere is −4.6 ± 1.5 W/m2 for cloud‐free and −2.1 ± 0.7 W/m2 for all‐sky conditions, during year 2006. These fluxes are consistent with, albeit generally less negative over ocean than, former assessments. Unlike previous studies, our estimate is constrained by retrievals of global coverage SSA, which may justify different DREA values. Remarkable consistency is found in comparison with DREA based on CERES (Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) and MODIS observations.

Aerosol vertical distribution and optical properties over China from long-term satellite and ground-based remote sensing

Abstract. The seasonal and spatial variations of vertical distribution and optical properties of aerosols over China are studied using long-term satellite observations from the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and ground-based lidar observations and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data. The CALIOP products are validated using the ground-based lidar measurements at the Semi-Arid Climate and Environment Observatory of Lanzhou University (SACOL). The Taklamakan Desert and Tibetan Plateau regions exhibit the highest depolarization and color ratios because of the natural dust origin, whereas the North China Plain, Sichuan Basin and Yangtze River Delta show the lowest depolarization and color ratios because of aerosols from secondary formation of the anthropogenic origin. Certain regions, such as the North China Plain in spring and the Loess Plateau in winter, show intermediate depolarization and color ratios because of mixed dust and anthropogenic aerosols. In the Pearl River Delta region, the depolarization and color ratios are similar to but higher than those of the other polluted regions because of combined anthropogenic and marine aerosols. Long-range transport of dust in the middle and upper troposphere in spring is well captured by the CALIOP observations. The seasonal variations in the aerosol vertical distributions reveal efficient transport of aerosols from the atmospheric boundary layer to the free troposphere because of summertime convective mixing. The aerosol extinction lapse rates in autumn and winter are more positive than those in spring and summer, indicating trapped aerosols within the boundary layer because of stabler meteorological conditions. More than 80 % of the column aerosols are distributed within 1.5 km above the ground in winter, when the aerosol extinction lapse rate exhibits a maximum seasonal average in all study regions except for the Tibetan Plateau. The aerosol extinction lapse rates in the polluted regions are higher than those of the less polluted regions, indicating a stabilized atmosphere due to absorptive aerosols in the polluted regions. Our results reveal that the satellite and ground-based remote-sensing measurements provide the key information on the long-term seasonal and spatial variations in the aerosol vertical distribution and optical properties, regional aerosol types, long-range transport and atmospheric stability, which can be utilized to more precisely assess the direct and indirect aerosol effects on weather and climate.

Verification of ECMWF and ECMWF/MACC's global and direct irradiance forecasts with respect to solar electricity production forecasts

The successful electricity grid integration of solar energy into day-ahead markets requires at least hourly resolved 48 h forecasts. Technologies as photovoltaics and non-concentrating solar thermal technologies make use of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts, while all concentrating technologies both from the photovoltaic and the thermal sector require direct normal irradiances (DNI). The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has recently changed towards providing direct as well as global irradiances. Additionally, theMACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition & Climate) near-real time services provide daily analysis and forecasts of aerosol properties in preparation of the upcoming European Copernicus programme. The operational ECMWF/IFS (Integrated Forecast System) forecast system will in the medium term profit from the Copernicus service aerosol forecasts. Therefore, within the MACC-II project specific experiment runs were performed allowing for the assessment of the performance gain of these potential future capabilities. Also the potential impact of providing forecasts with hourly output resolution compared to three-hourly resolved forecasts is investigated. The inclusion of the new aerosol climatology in October 2003 improved both the GHI and DNI forecasts remarkably, while the change towards a new radiation scheme in 2007 only had minor and partly even unfavourable impacts on the performance indicators. For GHI, larger RMSE (root mean square error) values are found for broken/overcast conditions than for scattered cloud fields. For DNI, the findings are opposite with larger RMSE values for scattered clouds compared to overcast/broken cloud situations. The introduction of direct irradiances as an output parameter in the operational IFS version has not resulted in a general performance improvement with respect to biases and RMSE compared to the widely used Skartveit et al. (1998) global to direct irradiance conversion scheme. Cloudy situations and especially thin ice cloud cases are forecasted much better with respect to biases and RMSE, but large biases are introduced in clear sky cases. When applying the MACC aerosol scheme to include aerosol direct effects, an improvement especially in DNI biases is found for cloud free cases as expected. However, a performance decrease is found for water cloud cases. It is assumed that this is caused by the lack of an explicit modelling of cloud-aerosol interactions, while other meteorological forcings for cloud processes like the temperature field are modified by the aerosols.

The compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2: description and first results

Abstract. This paper provides a comprehensive description of OSCAR v2.2, a simple Earth system model. The general philosophy of development is first explained, followed by a complete description of the model's drivers and various modules. All components of the Earth system necessary to simulate future climate change are represented in the model: the oceanic and terrestrial carbon cycles – including a book-keeping module to endogenously estimate land-use change emissions – so as to simulate the change in atmospheric carbon dioxide; the tropospheric chemistry and the natural wetlands, to simulate that of methane; the stratospheric chemistry, for nitrous oxide; 37 halogenated compounds; changing tropospheric and stratospheric ozone; the direct and indirect effects of aerosols; changes in surface albedo caused by black carbon deposition on snow and land-cover change; and the global and regional response of climate – in terms of temperature and precipitation – to all these climate forcers. Following the probabilistic framework of the model, an ensemble of simulations is made over the historical period (1750–2010). We show that the model performs well in reproducing observed past changes in the Earth system such as increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases or increased global mean surface temperature.

Impacts of aerosol direct effects on tropospheric ozone through changes in atmospheric dynamics and photolysis rates.

Aerosol direct effects (ADEs), i.e., scattering and absorption of incoming solar radiation, reduce radiation reaching the ground and the resultant photolysis attenuation can decrease ozone (O3) formation in polluted areas. One the other hand, evidence also suggests that ADE-associated cooling suppresses atmospheric ventilation, thereby enhancing surface-level O3. Assessment of ADE impacts is thus important for understanding emission reduction strategies that seek co-benefits associated with reductions in both particuate matter and O3 levels. This study quantifies the impacts of ADEs on tropospheric ozone by using a two-way online coupled meteorology and atmospheric chemistry model, WRF- CMAQ, using a process analysis methodology. Two mani-festations of ADE impacts on O3 including changes in atmospheric dynamics (ᐃDynamics) and changes in photolysis rates (∆Photolysis) were assessed separately through multiple scenario simulations for January and July of 2013 over China. Results suggest that ADEs reduced surface daily maxima 1 h O3 (DM1O3) in China by up to 39μgm−3 through the combination of ∆Dynamics and ∆Photolysis in January but enhanced surface DM1O3 by up to 4μgm−3 in July. Increased O3 in July is largely attributed to ∆Dynamics, which causes a weaker O3 sink of dry deposition and a stronger O3 source of photochemistry due to the stabilization of the at-mosphere. Meanwhile, surface OH is also enhanced at noon in July, though its daytime average values are reduced in January. An increased OH chain length and a shift towards more volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited conditions are found due to ADEs in both January and July. This study suggests that reducing ADEs may have the potential risk of increasing O3 in winter, but it will benefit the reduction in maxima O3 in summer.

Trend Analysis of Aerosol Optical Depth and &amp;amp;#197ngstr&amp;amp;#246m Exponent Anomaly over East Africa

Trend analysis of atmospheric aerosols enhances confidence in the evaluation of both direct and indirect effects of aerosols on regional climate change. To comprehensively achieve this over East Africa, it’s important to understand aerosols temporal characteristics over well selected sites namely Nairobi (1°S, 36°E), Mbita (0°S, 34°E), Mau Forest (0.0°S - 0.6°S; 35.1°E - 35.7°E), Malindi (2°S, 40°E), Mount Kilimanjaro (3°S, 37°E) and Kampala (0°N, 32.1°E). In this context, trend analysis (annual (in Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) at 550 nm and &#197ngstr&#246m Exponent Anomaly (&#197EA) at 470 - 660 nm) and seasonal (AOD)) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were performed following the weighted least squares (WLS) fitting method for the period 2000 to 2013. The MODIS AOD annual trends were ground-truthed by AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data. Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) was utilized to derive rainfall rates (RR) in order to assess its influence on the observed aerosol temporal characteristics. The derived annual AOD trends utilizing MODIS and AERONET data were consistent with each other. However, monthly AOD and RR were found to be negatively correlated over Nairobi, Mbita, Mau forest complex and Malindi. There was no clear relationship between the two trends over Kampala and Mount Kilimanjaro, which may imply the role of aerosols in cloud modulation and hence RR received. Seasonality is evident between AOD and &#197EA annual trends as these quantities were observed to be modulated by RR. AOD was observed to decrease over East Africa except Nairobi during the study period as a result of RR during the study period. Unlike the other study sites, Nairobi shows positive trends in AOD that may be attributed to increasing populace and fossil fuel, vehicular-industrial emission and biomass and refuse burning during the study period. Negative trends over the rest of the study sites were associated to rain washout. The AOD and &#197EA derived annual trends were found to meet the statistical significance of 95% confidence level over each study site.

Impact of future climate policy scenarios on air quality and aerosol-cloud interactions using an advanced version of CESM/CAM5: Part II. Future trend analysis and impacts of projected anthropogenic emissions

Following a comprehensive evaluation of the Community Earth System Model modified at the North Carolina State University (CESM-NCSU), Part II describes the projected changes in the future state of the atmosphere under the representative concentration partway scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5) by 2100 for the 2050 time frame and examine the impact of climate change on future air quality under both scenarios, and the impact of projected emission changes under the RCP4.5 scenario on future climate through aerosol direct and indirect effects. Both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations predict similar changes in air quality by the 2050 period due to declining emissions under both scenarios. The largest differences occur in O3, which decreases by global mean of 1.4 ppb under RCP4.5 but increases by global mean of 2.3 ppb under RCP8.5 due to differences in methane levels, and PM10, which decreases by global mean of 1.2 μg m−3 under RCP4.5 and increases by global mean of 0.2 μg m−3 under RCP8.5 due to differences in dust and sea-salt emissions under both scenarios. Enhancements in cloud formation in the Arctic and Southern Ocean and increases of aerosol optical depth (AOD) in central Africa and South Asia dominate the change in surface radiation in both scenarios, leading to global average dimming of 1.1 W m−2 and 2.0 W m−2 in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Declines in AOD, cloud formation, and cloud optical thickness from reductions of emissions of primary aerosols and aerosol precursors under RCP4.5 result in near surface warming of 0.2 °C from a global average increase of 0.7 W m−2 in surface downwelling solar radiation. This warming leads to a weakening of the Walker Circulation in the tropics, leading to significant changes in cloud and precipitation that mirror a shift in climate towards the negative phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation.

A revisit to decadal change of aerosol optical depth and its impact on global radiation over China

Global radiation over China decreased between the 1960s and 1990, since when it has remained stable. As the total cloud cover has continued to decrease since the 1960s, variations in aerosols were suggested in previous studies to be the primary cause for variations in global radiation over China. However, the effect of aerosols on global radiation on a decadal scale has not been physically quantified over China. In this study, aerosol optical depth (AOD) data since 1980 are estimated by combining horizontal visibility data at stations in China and AOD observed by the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS). It is found that the AOD exhibits decadal changes, with two decreasing periods (before the end of 1980s and after 2006) and one increasing period (from 1990 to 2006). With the derived AOD, a clear-sky model is then applied to quantify the role of aerosols in the variations in global radiation over China. The results show that aerosol direct effect cannot fully explain the decadal variations in the global radiation over China between 1980 and 2010, though it has a considerable effect on global radiation climatology. There are significant differences between the trends of clear-sky global radiation impacted by aerosols and those of all-sky global radiation impacted by aerosols and clouds, and the correlation coefficient for the comparison is very low. Therefore, the variations in all-sky global radiation over China are likely to be due to changes in cloud properties and to interactions between clouds and aerosols.

Global and regional radiative forcing from 20 % reductions in BC, OC and SO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;4&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; – an HTAP2 multi-model study

Abstract. In the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 (HTAP2) exercise, a range of global atmospheric general circulation and chemical transport models performed coordinated perturbation experiments with 20 % reductions in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols, or aerosol precursors, in a number of source regions. Here, we compare the resulting changes in the atmospheric load and vertically resolved profiles of black carbon (BC), organic aerosols (OA) and sulfate (SO4) from 10 models that include treatment of aerosols. We use a set of temporally, horizontally and vertically resolved profiles of aerosol forcing efficiency (AFE) to estimate the impact of emission changes in six major source regions on global radiative forcing (RF) pertaining to the direct aerosol effect, finding values between. 51.9 and 210.8 mW m−2 Tg−1 for BC, between −2.4 and −17.9 mW m−2 Tg−1 for OA and between −3.6 and −10.3 W m−2 Tg−1 for SO4. In most cases, the local influence dominates, but results show that mitigations in south and east Asia have substantial impacts on the radiative budget in all investigated receptor regions, especially for BC. In Russia and the Middle East, more than 80 % of the forcing for BC and OA is due to extra-regional emission reductions. Similarly, for North America, BC emissions control in east Asia is found to be more important than domestic mitigations, which is consistent with previous findings. Comparing fully resolved RF calculations to RF estimates based on vertically averaged AFE profiles allows us to quantify the importance of vertical resolution to RF estimates. We find that locally in the source regions, a 20 % emission reduction strengthens the radiative forcing associated with SO4 by 25 % when including the vertical dimension, as the AFE for SO4 is strongest near the surface. Conversely, the local RF from BC weakens by 37 % since BC AFE is low close to the ground. The fraction of BC direct effect forcing attributable to intercontinental transport, on the other hand, is enhanced by one-third when accounting for the vertical aspect, because long-range transport primarily leads to aerosol changes at high altitudes, where the BC AFE is strong. While the surface temperature response may vary with the altitude of aerosol change, the analysis in the present study is not extended to estimates of temperature or precipitation changes.