Aerial Census Research Articles

Commissioning an All-Sky Infrared Camera Array for Detection of Airborne Objects

To date, there is little publicly available scientific data on unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) whose properties and kinematics purportedly reside outside the performance envelope of known phenomena. To address this deficiency, the Galileo Project is designing, building, and commissioning a multi-modal, multi-spectral ground-based observatory to continuously monitor the sky and collect data for UAP studies via a rigorous long-term aerial census of all aerial phenomena, including natural and human-made. One of the key instruments is an all-sky infrared camera array using eight uncooled long-wave-infrared FLIR Boson 640 cameras. In addition to performing intrinsic and thermal calibrations, we implement a novel extrinsic calibration method using airplane positions from Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast (ADS-B) data that we collect synchronously on site. Using a You Only Look Once (YOLO) machine learning model for object detection and the Simple Online and Realtime Tracking (SORT) algorithm for trajectory reconstruction, we establish a first baseline for the performance of the system over five months of field operation. Using an automatically generated real-world dataset derived from ADS-B data, a dataset of synthetic 3D trajectories, and a hand-labeled real-world dataset, we find an acceptance rate (fraction of in-range airplanes passing through the effective field of view of at least one camera that are recorded) of 41% for ADS-B-equipped aircraft, and a mean frame-by-frame aircraft detection efficiency (fraction of recorded airplanes in individual frames which are successfully detected) of 36%. The detection efficiency is heavily dependent on weather conditions, range, and aircraft size. Approximately 500,000 trajectories of various aerial objects are reconstructed from this five-month commissioning period. These trajectories are analyzed with a toy outlier search focused on the large sinuosity of apparent 2D reconstructed object trajectories. About 16% of the trajectories are flagged as outliers and manually examined in the IR images. From these ∼80,000 outliers and 144 trajectories remain ambiguous, which are likely mundane objects but cannot be further elucidated at this stage of development without information about distance and kinematics or other sensor modalities. We demonstrate the application of a likelihood-based statistical test to evaluate the significance of this toy outlier analysis. Our observed count of ambiguous outliers combined with systematic uncertainties yields an upper limit of 18,271 outliers for the five-month interval at a 95% confidence level. This test is applicable to all of our future outlier searches.

The current status of the Lena-Olenek population of wild reindeer (<i>Rangifer tarandus</i> L., 1758, Cervidae, Artiodactyla)

The rational use of wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus L., 1758) based on reliable data on the number, distribution, age-sex composition, and herd size of the population is a challenging problem for hunting management. The purpose of this study was to characterize the current state of the Lena-Olenek tundra wild reindeer (LOWR) population. The counting of LOWR was based on the aerial census conducted from July 10 to 12, 2018; coordinate data from the GLONASS/Argos satellite tracker collars; stock materials from previous aerial surveys in the tundra of Yakutia. From the data obtained, the livestock of the LOWR was estimated to be 83,260. We specified that deer are housed in three distinct groups: broodstock, mixed, and male. The main livestock in the LOWR were females (44.2 %), calves (22.4 %), and juvenile animals 1–2 years old (17.5 %). Over 32 years, there was a decrease in 62.2% in the number of adult males and an increase in the number of fingerlings and juvenile animals. Since the middle of the last century, there has been a gradual increase in the number of LOWR from 21,000 to 95,000 deer in 2009 and a slight decrease to 83,200 deer in the last decade due to the exclusion of Taimyr reindeer migrants. The results of this study can be used to rationalize the use of wild reindeer resources and the allocation of quotas for production. Further census work will make it possible to monitor the state of the population over time.

Aerial identification and quantification of nesting sites of Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) in the mountain ranges of central Baja California Peninsula, Mexico

Aerial census for identification and quantification of nesting sites of Golden Eagle was performed through the mountain ranges of the central Baja California Peninsula, Mexico from 5 to 8 April 2021. We identified a total of 113 nests and 12 territories of Golden Eagle on a sampling trajectory of 1,203 km that encompassed a surface of 176,000 ha. The highest abundance of nests (n = 57) was recorded between 29º and 30º N latitudes with elevations ranging between 600 and 700 m (n = 35) in the Valle de Los Cirios Protected Natural Area, which is mainly associated with mountain biotopes with steep cliffs and ample alluvial valleys that promote foraging and nesting sites for this species. The number of nests of Golden Eagle showed an inverse relationship with the altitude along a latitudinal gradient. This study reports new nesting sites of Golden Eagle in the central peninsular region that includes the mountain ranges of Matomí, Jaraguay, and La Libertad.

Habitat use by South American fur seals (Arctocephalus australis) and sea lions (Otaria flavescens) in a marine protected area in southern Brazil

We present an analysis of the influence of relief on habitat use by South American fur seals (Arctocephalus australis) and sea lions (Otaria flavescens) in the Wildlife Refuge of Ilha dos Lobos (WRIL) in southern Brazil. To test the hypothesis that the spatial occupation of WRIL by these two species of South American pinnipeds is related to the higher relief found in the northern region of the island, we generated a digital three-dimensional model of Ilha dos Lobos. This model was based on photogrammetry of 157 aerial images obtained from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in 2019. Aerial censuses were conducted between 2010 and 2020 using a helicopter and a UAV to assess the abundance of pinnipeds. The effects of altitude and seasonality on species abundances were assessed using Generalized Linear Mixed Models with Negative Binomial error distribution. The results indicated the existence of variation in the relief of the island, with higher areas in the northern region highly correlated with higher densities of both South American pinniped species on the island. The relationship between pinniped density and altimetry was statistically significant, indicating that these animals preferred to use the higher areas of the island when resting. These results suggest the importance of UAV operations and employment for understanding habitat use by fauna in protected areas.

The Icelandic harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population: trends over 40 years (1980–2020) and current threats to the population.

Regular harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population censuses are necessary to monitor fluctuations in the population size and to inform seal management. In this paper, the status of the Icelandic harbour seal population is presented, along with trends in the population over a 40-year period. In total, 13 full aerial censuses were carried out during the moulting season (July-August) between 1980 and 2020. The most recent census from 2020 yielded an estimate of 10,319 (CI 95%= 6,733-13,906) animals, indicating that the population is 69.04% smaller than when systematic monitoring of the population commenced in 1980 (33,327 seals). The observed decrease puts the population on the national red list for threatened populations. Trend analyses indicate that most of the decline occurred during the first decade, when the population decreased about 50% concurrently with large human induced removals of harbour seals. After that point, the population decline slowed down but continued, and currently the population seems to fluctuate around a stable minimum level. The sensitive conservation status of the population underlines the need to assess and sustainably manage current threats to the population, including human induced removals, anthropogenic disturbance, and various environmental factors such as contaminants, climate change and fluctuation in prey availability. Furthermore, it is urgent to continue regular censuses and to increase monitoring of population demographic factors.

Analysis of the attempts to breed seabirds in uninhabited territories of the Haswell archipelago and Adams Island (East Antarctica)

Data on new breeding sites of seabirds in Antarctica allow a better understanding of spatial species distribution, correct population estimates, and the processes occurring in populations and ecosystems. The aim of the work is to compile and analyze knowledge about the spatial distribution of breeding seabird populations and attempts to breed in new, previously uninhabited territories. Ground-based observations and population counts were conducted at the Haswell archipelago (Queen Mary Land, Davis Sea) by several observers from 1912 to 2016. The total area studied was 12 km². An aerial census of penguins on Adams Island was conducted in 2011. Based on this census, it might be stated that 6 out of 9 breeding species of seabirds have made attempts to develop new breeding sites. Regular breeding of birds within the archipelago is established on 8 islands. Emperor Penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri), Snow Petrels (Pagodroma nivea) and South Polar Skuas (Stercorarius maccormicki) showed no change in spatial distribution. Adélie Penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae), Southern Fulmars (Fulmarus glacialoides), Cape Petrels (Daption capense) and mixed pairs of Brown Skua (Stercorarius antarcticus) × ​​South Polar Skua bred in new sites (6 islands and 1 nunatak). New likely breeding sites have been recorded for the Southern Fulmar, Cape Petrel and Wilson's Storm Petrel (Oceanites oceanicus). An unsuccessful breeding attempt in a previously uninhabited territory has been observed in the Antarctic Petrel (Thalassoica antarctica). New breeding sites for seabirds may result from the avoidance of predation by South Polar Skuas. Changes in local meteorological conditions could be a factor contributing to the breeding attempts by seabirds in the territories previously uninhabited by them. The increase in South Polar Skuas populations, invasion of Brown Skuas on the Haswell Islands, increased breeding attempts and occupation of new breeding sites by Adélie Penguins and tube-nosed seabirds in the early 21st century are evidence of changes in ecological conditions in the local ecosystem.

Incorporating Time-Lapse Digital Cameras into Creel Surveys at Three Alabama Reservoirs

Abstract We compared different creel survey methods at three Alabama reservoirs (Harris, Jordan, and Mitchell) to identify approaches that could improve precision. We were particularly interested in whether boat trailer counts from time-lapse photos taken at boat ramp parking lots could be used as an index of fishing effort to improve the temporal coverage of sampling. Angler effort was estimated independently using roving creels, access point creels, and aerial census counts and compared with fixed-location digital camera images of trailers at boat ramps. Digital camera counts of trailers correlated with angler effort from aerial census, access point creel surveys, and roving creel surveys. This finding suggests that time-lapse digital cameras as a sampling method to obtain angler effort may provide a feasible method once calibrated to a system. Best-fitting models for relationships between time-lapse trailer counts and the other creel methods included covariates for season and day type (weekend versus weekday) effects, but not reservoir and time-of-day effects. The inclusion of effort predicted from time-lapse digital cameras incorporated with roving creel surveys did not statistically affect the magnitude of effort estimates but substantially increased the precision of effort estimates.

Evidence of the effectiveness of conservation interventions from long-term aerial monitoring of three crane species in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Summary Monitoring population trends is important for evaluating the effectiveness of conservation interventions. An annual aerial census of three crane species, the Grey Crowned Crane Balearica regulorum, Blue Crane Anthropoides paradiseus and Wattled Crane Bugeranus carunculatus, was performed in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa over the past 23 years. These crane species are listed as ‘Endangered’, ‘Vulnerable’, and ‘Vulnerable’, respectively, on the IUCN Red List. KwaZulu-Natal was chosen as a key site for monitoring as it covers an important region for cranes that has received concerted conservation effort since the 1980s. These annual surveys are conducted by Ezemvelo KwaZulu-Natal Wildlife, a provincial conservation agency, and the Endangered Wildlife Trust, a conservation non-profit organisation. We estimated crane population trends from data collected by means of standardised surveys conducted between 2003 and 2019. Results from the surveys show a steady and significant increase in the population size of all three crane species. Interventions including power line collision mitigation and engagement with landowners have been implemented in formal conservation programs to protect these cranes. Results from the annual census suggest that conservation interventions have been effective.

Estimate of brown bear (Ursus arctos) spring population size using an aerial census method of bear tracks in tundra

Estimate of brown bear (Ursus arctos) spring population size using an aerial census method of bear tracks in tundra

CONSERVATION OF THE ORINOCO GOOSE (NEOCHEN JUBATA) IN THE MIDDLE ARAGUAIA RIVER, TOCANTINS, BRAZIL.

The Orinoco goose, (Neochen jubata) is a grazing herbivore of open habitats that was once widely distributed in tropical South America. Centuries of overhunting and habitat loss have reduced it to widely scattered remnant populations; it is categorized as Near Threatened globally. Within the Cerrado biome, the Middle Araguaia River houses the largest remnant population. In August 2017, a study was started to assess the situation of the Orinoco Goose in the regions of Araguaia National Park, Cantão State Park, and adjacent rice fields. We conducted counts from an aerial census (a 700 km transect), monthly boat censuses (40 km) and land censuses in rice plantations. The aircraft census counted 367 individuals in August 2017, while monthly monitoring of a stretch of the lower Javaés River over more than two years showed a seasonal population variation associated with the flood regime, with the species virtually disappearing during the flood period between January and April when river beaches are submerged. During this period, large flocks of about 1,000 Orinoco Geese were discovered not far away, concentrated in small stretches of rice plantation agro-systems in the region. This behavioral seasonal concentration makes the species susceptible to poisoning and epizootic diseases. The findings suggest the need to re-categorize the Orinoco Goose population of the Middle Araguaia River as “Threatened” for the State of Tocantins due to the decline observed in the last 10 years, the maximum estimated population size, and the significant seasonal concentrations in a restricted area. At the same time, it is necessary to develop an action plan for its conservation in the surroundings of Ilha do Bananal, and throughout Brazil, where its threat status must be reviewed.

A camera trap appraisal of species richness and community composition of medium and large mammals in a Miombo woodland reserve

AbstractBiological monitoring in protected areas is essential for making management decisions, especially in small (<1000 km2), fenced reserves which require intensive intervention to maintain core habitat characteristics. Estimates of species richness and community structure provide important information for planning and evaluating conservation strategies. Majete Wildlife Reserve (MWR) is a small (691 km2), isolated reserve in southern Malawi in the Miombo Woodland Ecoregion. We investigated species richness and community structure of the terrestrial medium and large mammals at MWR through a standardised camera trap survey. During the 2018 dry season, 140 camera locations were sampled for 40 days each. Thirty‐five mammal species were detected and Chao 2, ICE and Jackknife 1 and 2 richness estimators indicated between 36–41 species present which aligns closely with historic accounts. Non‐detection of some species is attributed to species specialised habitat requirements not catered for in the systematic camera trap survey design. Mammal community structure, calculated from the camera detected species’ relative abundance indices (RAI), was atypical for Miombo woodland, with an underrepresentation of elephants. Camera trap‐derived RAI was positively related with 2018 aerial census species encounter data. These results can assist management in refining survey techniques and act as a baseline to monitor conservation efforts.

Long‐term abundance dynamics of the South American sea lion (Otaria flavescens) in the most important breeding colony in central Chile

AbstractLong‐term studies that monitor changes in the abundance of pinnipeds are particularly relevant given that these long‐lived species are considered to be indicators of the quality of the ecosystems around them. We report a continuous record of the total abundance by sex and age‐classes of the South American sea lion (Otaria flavescens) in Cobquecura, the most important breeding colony in central Chile over a twelve‐year period (2008 to 2020). We also analysed the demographic trends in South American sea lion abundance at this location. A total of 110 and 43 sea/land based and aerial censuses were performed over the studied period, respectively. The number of sea lions on land was highest in the summer months, which corresponds to the breeding season of the species. The abundance ranged from a minimum of 870 to a maximum of 4,531 individuals from sea/land‐based observations, and from 796 to 4,854 from aerial censuses. This variation was mainly influenced by the number of adult females, the most abundant age‐class in the colony. On the contrary, adult and sub‐adult males were least abundant in the population. The highest numbers of pups were registered in February of each year, ranging from 448 in February 2009 to 1,214 in February 2017. During the study period, we estimated a finite growth rate (λ) of 1.031, suggesting an increase in the population size in the colony, especially in the number of pups. Considering Cobquecura is highly susceptible to anthropogenic disturbance, developing effective long‐term protection through adequate management is critical to better conserve the South American sea lion in the most important breeding colony in central Chile.

Un-crewed aerial vehicle population survey of three sympatrically breeding seabird species at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands

Surveying seabirds in polar latitudes can be challenging due to sparse human populations, lack of infrastructure and the risk of disturbance to wildlife or damage to habitats. Counting populations using un-crewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) is a promising approach to overcoming these difficulties. However, a careful validation of the approach is needed to ensure comparability with counts collected using conventional methods. Here, we report on surveys of three Antarctic bird species breeding on Signy Island, South Orkney Islands; Chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and Gentoo (Pygoscelis papua) Penguins, and the South Georgia Shag (Leucocarbo atriceps georgianus). We show that images from low-altitude UAV surveys have sufficient resolution to allow separation of Chinstrap Penguins from contiguously breeding Adélie Penguins (Pygoscelis adéliae), which are very similar in appearance when viewed from overhead. We compare data from ground counts with manual counts of nesting birds on images collected simultaneously by low-altitude aerial photography from multi-rotor UAVs at the same colonies. Results at this long-term monitoring site confirmed a continued population decline for Chinstrap Penguins and increasing Gentoo Penguin population. Although both methods provided breeding pair counts that were generally within ~ 5%, there were significant differences at some locations. We examine these differences in order to highlight potential biases or methodological constraints that should be considered when analysing similar aerial census surveys and comparing them with ground counts.

The northernmost haulout site of South American sea lions and fur seals in the western South Atlantic

We present estimates of the seasonal and spatial occupation by pinnipeds of the Wildlife Refuge of Ilha dos Lobos (WRIL), based on aerial photographic censuses. Twenty aerial photographic censuses were analysed between July 2010 and November 2018. To assess monthly differences in the numbers of pinnipeds in the WRIL we used a Generalized Linear Mixed Model. Spatial analysis was carried out using Kernel density analysis of the pinnipeds on a grid plotted along the WRIL. Subadult male South American sea lions (Otaria flavescens) were the most abundant pinniped in the WRIL. Potential females of this species were also recorded during half of the census. The maximum number of pinnipeds observed in the WRIL was 304 in September 2018, including an unexpected individual southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina), and a high number of South American fur seal yearlings (Arctocephalus australis). However, there was no statistically significant difference in counts between months. In all months analysed, pinnipeds were most often found concentrated in the northern portion of the island, with the highest abundances reported in September. This study confirms the importance of the WRIL as a haulout site for pinnipeds in Brazil, recommends that land research and recreational activities occur in months when no pinnipeds are present, and encourages a regulated marine mammal-based tourism during winter and spring months.

Differential herbivore occupancy of fire-manipulated savannas in the Satara region of the Kruger National Park, South Africa

The Kruger National Park’s (KNP) long-running experimental burn plots (EBPs) have a history of research projects, which improve the understanding of fire in savanna ecosystems. Using data from KNP’s aerial censuses (2005–2016) and in situ dung count data (2008–2017), this study assessed (1) herbivore densities on the Satara, N’Wanetsi and Marheya EBPs, on annual, triennial and no-burn treatments and across pre-, during and post-drought climate conditions; (2) herbivore densities of these EBPs relative to their non-manipulated surroundings and (3) the extent to which distance to water and rainfall influence ungulate densities. The results revealed that herbivore mean density differed significantly between the three EBPs of Satara and across their fire treatments. N’Wanetsi showed the highest density (0.30 animals/ha), whilst the lowest was found at Marheya (0.12 animals/ha). Overall, pre-drought density was higher on the annual plots (0.56 animals/ha), whilst higher post-drought density was evidenced on the triennial plots (0.80 animals/ha). On average, there were significantly higher herbivore densities on the EBPs (2.54 animals/ha) compared to the surrounding matrix at the larger scales of the Satara management section (0.15 animals/ha) and the central KNP (0.18 animals/ha). A positive correlation between herbivore mean density estimate and distance to water was shown. However, grazer mean density across fire treatments was strongly correlated to rainfall.Conservation implications: Given the variation in fire regimes and their application, and the non-uniform and elevated herbivore densities of the EBPs, inferences from the EBPs cannot be made to the larger KNP. The trials should rather be viewed as an isolated, fire herbivory experiment. It is also recommended to align the experiment with South African National Parks’ mandate by including biodiversity parameters like small mammals and insects in the monitoring of the plots.

Investigation of the effect of poaching on African elephant (Loxodonta africana) group size and composition in Ruaha National Park, Tanzania

Abstract Monitoring the impacts of poaching on wildlife is crucial to the management of ecosystems and wildlife populations. Previous studies have shown that poaching can affect the demography, reproduction and behaviour of wildlife. For African elephants (Loxodonta africana), poaching has been shown to affect population numbers, structure, breeding system, behaviour and activity patterns. This study investigated whether there were significant differences in group size and composition of African elephants in Ruaha National Park, Tanzania between areas of high- and low poaching levels, based on the 2013 whole-ecosystem aerial census, which we used as a proxy for poaching pressure. Elephant group size and composition were recorded along 417.6 km of monthly transects from May to November 2016, and again from May to November 2017. Comparison of cow/calf group sizes revealed that the group sizes were larger in areas with low poaching pressure. The dependent-to-adult female ratio was higher in areas with low poaching pressure, while the proportion of adult females was higher in areas with high poaching pressure. The proportions of cow/calf and mixed group types were higher in areas with low poaching pressure. A higher proportion of bull groups were seen in areas with high poaching pressure, which could be evidence of a risk response strategy. Therefore, poaching has significantly shaped grouping patterns, composition and has caused reproductive suppression in Ruaha elephants. We recommend a genetic study of this elephant population to establish the degree of relatedness among families to understand the extent of social structure breakdown caused by social stress due to high poaching pressure in the past years.

New non-breeding colonies of the South American fur seal in central Chile. Is the distribution in the southeastern Pacific waters extending?

The South American fur seal (SAFS), Arctocephalus australis, has an estimated abundance of 219,000 individuals. The distribution range of this top marine predator along the Pacifc coast of South America is discontinuous, with a gap between 29°02’S-43°36’S, whereas the Atlantic coast presents a continuous distribution. Little is known aboutthe population dynamics of the species in Chile, as there have been few observations of vagrant individuals within the distribution gap and partial population censuses on dates that do not fit with the reproductive season in northern andsouthern Chile. The aim of this study is to identify the presence of A. australis colonies and summarize the sightings in central Chile. Aerial censuses were performed between 32°12’S-39°24’S during the austral winter and summer (2015) and between 41°44’S-44°55’S during summer (2013, 2016-2018). Official stranding records were also included to complementthe research sightings. We registered a total of 54 SAFS in the Chilean distribution gap, most of them during winter (89%) and with a higher proportion of females (72%). Two non-breeding colonies were found in the Biobío Region during the winter of 2015, Islote del Trabajo (38°25’S) and Islote Quechol (38°26’S), with 27 ± 1 and 16 ± 0 individuals, respectively. The sightings of adult individuals suggest their arrival at these latitudes to carry out foraging and resting activities, probably from Guafo Island (43°36’S). The last Pleistocene glaciation, hunting activities during the eighteenth century and ENSO events could have conditioned the current abundance and range of distribution of A. australis in South America; therefore, the establishment of new non-breeding colonies in the gap of distribution could lead to new breeding grounds in thefuture.

Numbers and distribution of the Great Cormorant in Iceland: Limitation at the regional and metapopulation level.

We studied a metapopulation of great cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo) in Iceland, using complete aerial censuses of nests in 25 years during 1975–2015. Age composition was estimated in 1998–2014 by ground surveys in September and February. Brood size was estimated from aerial photographs in 2007–2015.Weather, food, breeding habitat, and density were considered as explanatory variables when examining numerical and distributional changes in the cormorant metapopulation.In 1975–1990 total nest numbers changed little, very low numbers about 1992 were followed by an annual increase of 3.5% in 1994–2015. Total nest numbers were positively correlated with estimates of spawning stocks of cod and saithe and inversely related to the subpolar gyre index (SPG‐I).During the increase in 1994–2015, average colony size at first increased and then declined. Habitat use also changed: the proportion of nests on small rocky islets (skerries) at first declined, from 69% to 44% in 1995–2003 and then increased again to about 58% in 2012–2014. Habitat changes were probably a response to changed patterns of human disturbance.Breeding density, as nests per km2 sea <20 m deep, was rather uniform among five defined regions in 1975–1996. Thereafter, densities became much higher in two sheltered regions with kelp forests and in one mostly exposed region. A second exposed region remained low and in the third nest numbers declined markedly. Thus, carrying capacity was higher in sheltered regions where cormorant breeding had historically been depressed by human disturbance.Brood size varied little among regions but declined with the years from about 2.5 to 1.8.The proportion of juveniles in September (fecundity) declined in 1998–2015 from over 0.4 to 0.3 and was inversely correlated with year and nest numbers, if outlier years were excluded, suggesting resource limitation. Survival of juvenile cormorants in September–February was estimated at 0.471 ± 0.066 SE. Commercial fish stocks and climate indices were not correlated with the proportion of juveniles.Annual survival of adults (breeding and nonbreeding) was estimated from nest counts and age composition 1999–2014, as 0.850 ± 0.026 SE and showed no trend in 1998–2014.We conclude that the metapopulation of cormorants in Iceland was resource‐limited at two levels: fecundity at the regional and winter survival at the total level.

Potential Impacts of Temperature Projections on Selected Large Herbivores in Savanna Ecosystem of Kenya

Due to global land surface warming, severe temperature events are expected to occur more frequently and more extremely causing changes in biodiversity and altering movement and survival of large herbivores. There are increasing observations of escalating wildlife range losses worldwide. In this study, we investigated 15 large wild herbivores (4 migratory, 1 dispersing and 10 residents) and their potential range changes in relation to projected temperatures changes based on three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. Previous studies of Kenyan savannah have shown that increases in temperature can reduce the densities of wildlife significantly and after certain thresholds the species can be lost in those landscapes. The range maps of the 15 species were developed from aerial censuses that have been conducted in the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya. We analysed temperature changes for the three RCPs for the periods 2030s, 2050s and 2070s. And based on the temperature threshold for each of the 15 species we analysed which wildlife range areas will be lost. Our results project that for the RCP 2.6, 3 out of the 15 species are projected to lose more than 50% of their range by the year 2030s, and 5 out 15 by 2050s and 4 of 15 by 2070s. The second climate scenario of RCP 4.5 projects that by 2030s, 3 species will lose more than 50% of their range, and in 2050s and 2070s 5 species. The RCP 8.5 which is the extreme scenario of temperature changes projects 5 species to lose their range by 50% in 2030s, 7 species by 2050s and 10 species by 2070s. The extent of range loss was different among species but was severe for buffalo, Thomson’s gazelle, waterbuck, and wildebeest which are also water dependent species. However, the elephant, gerenuk, hartebeest, lesser kudu, and oryx are expected to retain most of their range in all the RCPs scenarios. These range contractions raise serious concerns about the future of wildlife in Kenyan savannah based on projected climate changes. And therefore, it is imperative the wildlife sector develops climate policies and plans that take into account the projected climate scenarios.

The dynamics of Kelp Forests in the Northeast Pacific Ocean and the relationship with environmental drivers

Abstract The dynamics of foundation species in ecosystems are key to the fate of many species. Kelp forests are foundation species in temperate ocean ecosystems and contribute to carbon storage, macronutrient dynamics, primary production and biodiversity of a myriad of associated species. Downward trends in their abundance globally have been of concern. We analysed 26 years of aerial censuses (1989–2015) of two canopy kelp species in Washington State (USA) waters. We compared these modern censuses with censuses in 1911 and 1912 to determine the persistence of kelp cover over the past century. Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, we compared kelp dynamics with likely environmental drivers, including local environmental variables and ocean indices for this region. Kelp remains at historic levels in many areas, although some eastern populations in proximity to greater human populations are the exception to this pattern. Over the last 26 years, kelp abundance showed high spatial autocorrelation in western areas of Straits of Juan de Fuca, with more variable populations in the annual species and eastward towards Puget Sound. Both species covaried positively in their abundance throughout most of the study area, suggesting that environmental factors rather than competition, drove their dynamics. The population dynamics of these kelp species showed that the abundance 1 year previously was an important predictor, and cyclic dynamics were not indicated using ARIMA models. Kelp abundance correlated inversely with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Oceanic Nino Index, and positively with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, indicating that large‐scale processes associated with colder seawater temperatures were associated with greater relative abundance of kelp. Synthesis. Kelp beds in the northern California Current Large Marine Ecosystem have mostly remained persistent over the past century and over many kilometres, but some areas may have decreased in abundance. The sensitivity of these populations to indices of ocean climate, our demonstration that a historic 93‐year sea surface temperature record (Race Rocks, Canada) showed a 0.72°C increase and the classification of some areas as high variability‐low abundance, suggest that the viability of these foundational species remain a concern into the future.