Adverse Selection Theory Research Articles

Mixed-Payment Deals and Target Shareholder Preferences for Method of Payment

We examine the time trends and determinants of the method of payment in M&As spanning four decades. The fraction of mixed payments tripled from about 10% before the turn of the century to 30% in the new century, while the fraction of stock (cash) payments peaked (bottomed out) in the late 1990s but has since plunged (surged). We can explain a portion, but not all, of these trends using explanatory variables linked to adverse selection theory, taxation, and contracting costs. We also show that mixed payments are not merely hybrids between cash and stock payments, but have unique determinants and features.

Testing for Adverse Selection in Insurance Markets

This article reviews and evaluates the empirical literature on adverse selection in insurance markets. We focus on empirical work that seeks to test the basic coverage–risk prediction of adverse selection theory—that is, that policyholders who purchase more insurance coverage tend to be riskier. The analysis of this body of work, we argue, indicates that whether such a correlation exists varies across insurance markets and pools of insurance policies. We discuss various reasons why a coverage–risk correlation may not be found in some pools of insurance policies. The presence of a coverage–risk correlation can be explained either by moral hazard or adverse selection, and we discuss methods for distinguishing between them. Finally, we review the evidence on learning by policyholders and insurers.

Dividend Signaling and Pecking Order When 'Style' Is All That Matters

Two classic adverse selection theories, dividend signaling and the pecking order of capital structure, face significant empirical difficulties: the market underreacts to dividend increases, and firms issue large amounts of equity, contradicting the pecking order theory. This paper argues that “style investing” can explain these apparent anomalies. When investors allocate their portfolios purely on the basis of broad “styles” (e.g. value/growth), they make the stock price less sensitive to information about the individual firm. Thus the firm gains less from signaling, and bears a smaller dilution cost when issuing equity — and signaling and the pecking order break down. Using mutual fund flows to proxy for style investing and identify “hot” styles, this paper provides evidence supporting this argument. In a “hot” style, the firm is less likely to increase dividends, and the market reaction to the dividend increase is smaller. When in the long run style investing fades, the stock price gradually incorporates the full information contained in the dividend increase announcement: dividend–increasing stocks that at the announcement date belong to a “hot” style earn a significantly positive long–run abnormal return. On the other hand, in a “hot” investment style the firm issues more equity and less debt, and as style investing induces “good” firms to pool with the “bad” ones and issue equity, issuers driven by style investing are more profitable. A number of robustness checks distinguish these results from alternative explanations based on market timing or growth opportunities.

Measuring Informational Advantage of A Group of Investors

This study interprets various theories of volume of stock markets in a unified DOint of view and classifies the theories into 4 categories: risk premium theory, adverse selection theory, privately informed trading theory, and market stabilization theory. Risk premium theory and adverse selection theory predict that net buying amount of an uninformed trader and future stock return have negative correlation and that ttle correlation approaches-I as current return volatility increases. Privately informed trading theory and market stabilization theory predict that net buying amount of an Informed trader and future stock return have posltive correlation and that the correlation approaches 1 as current return volatility increases. Utilizing these two predictions. this study suggests a method of measuring informational advantage of a group of investors. To measure degrees of Informational advantage of some investor groups in Korean stock market. the method is applied to 7 groups of investors: foreign investors, individual investors. institutional investors, securities companies, Insurers. ITCs, and banks. The result shows that ITCs have the highest degree of informational advant~ age while Individual investors have the lowest level of informational advantage. The fact that this result is consistent with prior researches means that the method suggested in this study has enough empirical validity. This method may be used in a performance evaluation process for a specific fund or a portfolio manager.

The Valuation Effects of Prime Rate Revisions: Is There an Advantage of Being First?*

ABSTRACTUS banks making prime rate revisions are known to suffer stock price declines, which is consistent with the Stiglitz–Weiss adverse selection theory, given the relative stickiness of interest rates. If banks suffer price declines, then why are some banks consistent leaders when revising prime rates? This research question is the focus of our paper and is examined in the relatively concentrated banking system of Singapore. Lead banks in Singapore initiating a large number of rate increases earned an average abnormal return of 5.2%, while non‐lead banks also experienced positive abnormal returns of 3.9%, a result not in agreement with US‐specific evidence. We argue that the rate increases (decreases) resulting in a significant stock price increase (decrease) for lead banks are consistent with a valuation effect in a concentrated banking system. Our results could be explained as a valuation effect from anticipated higher profits or as reward for being first. The first mover advantage may thus also have signaling value on quality.

An application of adverse selection: rural agricultural production in China since the 1950s

Asymmetric information problems in collective rural agricultural production in China after 1955 is examined by applying the theory of adverse selection. This application shows the movement of equilibrium stages from a pooling contract to a separating one can explain the process of rural reform in China from the collective institution arrangement to the household responsibility system.

Allocations, adverse selection, and cascades in IPOs: Evidence from the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange

We examine theories of IPO underpricing using unique data from Israel where the allocation to subscribers is by equal proration. This enables us to simulate the return earned by uninformed investors. Consistent with Rock's (1986) theory of adverse selection, allocations were negatively related to underpricing. But uninformed investors earned a negative allocation-weighted initial return, although the average initial return was 12%. They could break even, however, by using publicly available information. The data also supports Welch's (1992) theory of information cascades: demand is either extremely high or there is undersubscription, with very few cases in between.

Allocations, Adverse Selection and Cascades in IPOs: Evidence from the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange

This paper examines three theories of IPO underpricing, using data from Israel where the allocations to subscribers are equally prorated and publicly known. Rock's (1986) theory of adverse selection is supported: subscribers receive greater allocations in overpriced IPOs. And, while the average IPO excess return is 12%, the simulated allocation-weighted return to uninformed investors is slightly negative. Welch's (1992) theory of information cascades is supported by the pattern of allocations: demand is either extremely high or there is undersubscription, with very few cases in between. Also supported is the proposition that underpricing is a means to increase ownership dispersion.

Automobile Insurance Contracts and Risk of Accident: An Empirical Test Using French Individual Data

Insurance has for a long time been perceived as a way of transferring responsibility from insured agents to insurers and thus as potentially influencing insured agents' behavior. Two particular opportunistic behaviors have been analyzed. First, the theory of adverse selection predicts that high-risk agents are likely to demand more insurance than are low-risk agents. Second, the theory of moral hazard predicts that the wider the insurance coverage, the less agents will try to prevent accidents. Both theories thus conclude that agents who are totally insured should have a higher probability of accident than those with only partial insurance, ceteris paribus. Nevertheless, one of the aims of insurance rating systems is to control for these opportunistic behaviors. In this article, we use individual data to see if the French automobile insurance rating system has achieved this aim. We do this using a two-step maximum-likelihood method. First, we compute a probit model to estimate the probability of taking out comprehensive versus third-party insurance. We then calculate the generalized residual, which is included as an independent variable in a negative binomial model estimating the probability of having an accident. The coefficient of this variable is argued to represent adverse selection and ex-ante moral-hazard behavior.

The underpricing of initial public offerings: A theoretical and empirical reconsideration of the adverse selection hypothesis

In this paper we generalize Rock's theory regarding the underpricing of IPOs. In Rock's model, informed investors have a firm-specific informational advantage pertaining to a firm's cash flow. We derive the new results that the level of beta and the size of the market risk premium positively affect underpricing. These implications extend the adverse selection theory and further distinguish this theory from the current state of signalling theories of underpricing. The results put the “hot and cold” issue markets phenomenon in a theoretical context. Empirical results are consistent with the theoretical propositions and provide support for Rock's theory of underpricing.

Consistency between Predicted and Actual Bid‐Ask Quote‐Revisions

ABSTRACTThis paper employs a “transaction” data‐base to study whether observed quote‐revisions are consistent with those predicted by the adverse selection and inventory cost theories of the bid‐ask spread. We find that actual quote‐revisions are consistent with the theoretical prediction in only 25% of the cases. Furthermore, quote‐revision patterns are found to be strongly dependent on the level of the outstanding spread and, to a lesser extent, on the transaction size. These systematic patterns, unrelated to the inventory cost and adverse selection theories, are consistent with the effect on quote‐revisions of the limit order book and the minimum 1/8 price‐change rule.

Adverse selection and statistical discrimination: An analysis of Canadian automobile insurance

Statistical discrimination occurs when a characteristic, such as sex, is used as an indicator of the risk group of an individual. The theory of adverse selection is used to explain the occurrence of statistical discrimination. A model of the market for collision insurance, which is based on the theory of adverse selection, is estimated on Canadian data. The results suggest that adverse selection occurs in this market. Simulations of the effect of prohibiting sexual discrimination in the 21–24 age group indicate that the premiums for single females would increase substantially and that a significant proportion would no longer purchase collision insurance.