Adverse Selection Component Research Articles

Adverse Selection Dynamics in Privately Produced Safe Debt Markets

Privately produced safe debt is designed so that there is no adverse selection in trade. But in some macro states—here, the onset of the pandemic—it becomes profitable for some agents to produce private information, and then agents face adverse selection when they trade the debt (i.e., it becomes information sensitive). We empirically study these adverse selection dynamics in a very important asset class, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), which finance loans to below-investment-grade firms. We decompose the bid-ask spreads on the AAA bonds of CLOs into a component reflecting dealer bank balance sheet costs and the adverse selection component. (JEL D22, D82, E44, G12, G14, G32)

Trades or quotes: Which drives price discovery? Evidence from Chinese index futures markets

AbstractIn this paper, we analyze the role that trades and quotes play in price discovery. Based on tick‐level data for CSI 300 stock index futures, we find that the contribution of quotes to price discovery does not differ from trades at low resolutions, but dominates at high resolutions. This difference is influenced by spreads and volume. Further analysis reveals that the intraday price contribution of quotes and trades is trending downward, up to 31% in the first half‐hour. The adverse selection and liquidity supply cost components of spreads significantly contribute to and dampen the difference in intraday contribution, respectively.

REIT Spreads Around Dividend Cuts and Suspensions During the Financial Crisis

We examine bid-ask spreads, depths, and adverse selection components of bid-ask spreads for REITs announcing dividend cuts or suspensions before, during, and after the 2008 financial crisis. We compare measures of spread, market depth, and adverse selection components of bid-ask spreads across time periods and between event and non-event REITs. We find that on announcement days of dividend cuts and suspensions, bid-ask spreads of event REITs are narrower and market depths are larger than that of non-event REITs during and after the financial crisis periods. These findings suggest improved liquidity of REIT shares on announcement days of dividend events. We do not find any significant change in adverse selection components of bid-ask spreads. Our results regarding improved liquidity during the financial crisis period are consistent with Calomiris and Wilson. Calomiris and Wilson report that during the capital crunch in the 1930s, banks facing wider bid-ask spreads used dividend cuts as a way to preserve capital to avoid selling equity in a low-liquidity or high-transaction cost environment (wider bid-ask spread).

Liquidity and information asymmetry around unscheduled mining announcements

AbstractThis paper examines liquidity and information asymmetry around unanticipated disclosure events of Australian mining companies. We do so via bid‐ask spread decomposition in order to isolate the spread’s adverse selection component, around ‘progress report’ disclosures pertaining to mining activities. We find that abnormal bid‐ask spreads rise significantly leading up to progress report announcements, before rapidly dropping following the event. This effect is most pronounced in small firms, and announcements not preceded by another within the prior month. Upon controlling for the spread’s liquidity‐related component, we find that the abnormal spread significantly increases before initial announcements, with the effect continuing post‐announcement for positive surprise events.

Political turmoil and the impact of foreign orders on equity prices

This paper examines whether foreign investors possess an information advantage over local investors in the Turkish stock market between 2007 and 2015. We find that foreign investors have an information advantage in 24 stocks, corresponding to seven percent of the sample firms. Foreign investors’ information advantage tends to prevail primarily during a period of political instability, which started with the Gezi Park protests in June 2013. The adverse selection component of the foreign trade spreads, which reflects a permanent change in stock prices, rises significantly after June 2013, by 66 bps. Our results suggest that domestic investors’ funding constraints, which limit their ability to impart their information on stock prices, may give foreign investors a relative information advantage during periods of political turmoil.

Cybersecurity Awareness and the Cost of Liquidity

While it is widely acknowledged that companies face increasing cybersecurity risk stemming from hackers stealing customer information, a relatively unknown cybersecurity risk is from information leakage and subsequent trading by digital insiders – hackers who target corporations to obtain non-public corporate information for illegal trading. We use a firm-specific measure of cybersecurity risk mitigation based on textual analysis of 10-Ks to proxy for the organization’s ability to reduce the probability of digital insider trading. We find that a larger share of new earnings information is incorporated into prices prior to earnings announcements for firms with low cybersecurity risk mitigation scores. We also find that pre-announcement trading by short sellers is more predictive of earnings surprises for firms with low cybersecurity risk mitigation. Further, on days closer to earnings announcements, firms with relatively low cybersecurity risk mitigation scores experience a larger increase in bid-ask spreads, particularly the adverse selection component. These results suggest that weak cybersecurity risk mitigation provides opportunities for acquisition of private information and that trading by privately informed traders is more likely in stocks of firms with higher exposure to cybercrimes.

Informed contrarian trades and stock returns

We develop a novel measure for the probability of informed trading. This measure, termed PCM, captures the adverse selection component of bid-ask spreads, becomes elevated around earnings announcements, and exhibits similar time-series patterns to price impact. Returns in double-sorted portfolios increase in PCM while controlling for liquidity. A long-short portfolio based on PCM generates 18.3% abnormal return annually. PCM significantly explains cross-sectional returns while controlling for other factors. This effect is robust to alternative specifications and remains significant after the decimalization in 2001. In sum, PCM is easy to implement and serves as an effective proxy for informed trading.

Does information asymmetry lead to higher debt financing? Evidence from China during the NTS Reform period

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to test an implication of the pecking order theory to explain capital structure decisions among Chinese listed companies during the 2005-2007 NTS Reform transition period. Design/methodology/approach The authors utilize direct proxies for information asymmetry based on microstructure models including Probability of the arrival of informed trades (PIN), Adverse selection component of the bid-ask spread (λ), Illiquidity ratio (ILLIQ) and liquidity ratio, and Information asymmetry index (InfoAsy) to examine their relation with firms’ debt financing. Findings Consistent with the prediction of Pecking Order Theory, the authors find that companies for which stock investors are challenged with more severe informational disadvantages are associated with higher degree of leverage use. Originality/value The study provides a more direct test on the positive relation between information asymmetry and financial leverage of Chinese firms. In contrast to previous findings by Chen (2004), the results suggest that capital structure choices among Chinese firms progressively conform to conventional finance theories (e.g. Pecking Order Theory) with the decline of non-tradable shares.

The components of the bid‐ask spread: Evidence from the corn futures market

AbstractThis article examines whether USDA announcements and commodity index fund rolling activity have an impact on liquidity costs, measured by the bid‐ask spread. Using Huang and Stoll's (1997) model of liquidity costs, we estimate whether changes to liquidity costs are driven by its adverse selection, inventory, or order processing components. Commodity index fund roll activity reduces the asymmetric information cost component of liquidity cost due to an increased proportion of noninformation‐based trading, but the inventory cost component increases as (mostly long only) commodity index funds sell their nearby positions and buy the first deferred contract—raising liquidity providers’ risk of building a position. The sum of these two effects is that liquidity costs remain low during index fund roll periods, averaging one “tick” (0.25 cents). On USDA report release days, we find that informed traders raise the asymmetric information component of liquidity costs in the first hour after release, but the inventory cost component is reduced due to the increase in volume. Similar to index fund roll activity, liquidity costs on USDA report release days remain low, averaging one “tick”. Our findings that liquidity costs are minimally changed during USDA report releases and commodity index fund roll periods is consistent with other recent research on liquidity costs, but we show that what drives liquidity costs differs substantially depending on the circumstances surrounding daily trading.

Regulatory Oversight of Financial Reporting: Securities and Exchange Commission Comment Letters

AbstractThe Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reviews company filings (10‐Q, 10‐K, S‐1, etc.) submitted to them. If a review identifies potential deficiencies, the SEC staff sends the company a comment letter seeking clarification, additional information, and ultimately, perhaps, revision of the filing or future filings. We examine the content, resolution, and ensuing informational consequences of SEC comment letters. The content analysis shows that nearly half of all comments involve accounting application, financial reporting, and disclosure issues. More than 17 percent of our sample cases result in immediate amended filings to resolve the issue(s) arising from the comment letters, and financial statements and/or footnotes are frequently revised. Following comment letter resolution, the adverse selection component of the bid‐ask spread declines and Earnings Response Coefficients (ERCs) increase. Our results provide little support for the conjecture that the market interprets the receipt of a comment letter as a signal that the firm has poor reporting quality. Finally, we find no evidence that comment letter firms increase the quantity or change the type of voluntary disclosure, thereby eliminating a possible competing explanation for the improved information environment. We conclude the SEC's oversight has beneficial informational effects.

Asymmetric Effects of Informed Trading on the Cost of Equity Capital

We decompose PIN, the probability of informed trading, into good-news (PIN_G) and bad-news (PIN_B) components, which we estimate at a quarterly frequency. We first assess the validity of PIN as a measure of informed trading by calculating its association with measures of the adverse-selection component of the cost of trading. We then provide new evidence that PIN_G and PIN_B capture informed trading around earnings announcements by showing that they predict positive and negative earnings surprises, respectively. Conjecturing that investors who take long positions will be more concerned about informed selling than about informed buying since the former depresses the sale price whereas the latter raises it, we then investigate asymmetry in the pricing of private information. We find strong evidence of such asymmetry in that the effect of PIN_B on the cost of equity capital is large and highly significant, whereas the effect of PIN_G is small and statistically insignificant. Data, as supplemental material, are available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2015.2250 . This paper was accepted by Neng Wang, finance.

Short sales and price discovery of Chinese cross-listed firms

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of short selling and margin trading on the price discovery and price informativeness of cross-listed firms, using a sample of Chinese firms listed on the China and Hong Kong stock exchanges. Design/methodology/approach – The sample consists of 67 Chinese cross-listed firms on A-share and H-share markets out of which 18 firms are allowed to be sold short/ traded on margin since March 2010. Using pre- and post-event period, the authors compare and contrast various market microstructure variables. The contributions of the home (A-share) and overseas (H-share) markets to the incorporation of new information into prices are calculated following the permanent-transitory approach of Gonzalo and Granger (1995) as well as the adverse selection component of Lin et al. (1995). Findings – The findings indicate that for the group of Chinese cross-listed firms that are not allowed to be sold short or bought on margin, the home (A-share) market contributes more to the price discovery process over time. However, for the group of cross-listed firms that are eligible for short selling and margin trading, the authors observe no significant difference in the contribution of either A- or H-share markets to the price discovery. The contribution of home market for these firms is even lower around the announcement of major events. The authors further find that while the short sale activities appears to be informative, measured by the adverse selection (AS) component of spread, on the whole they have not led the A-share markets to be more informative. Research limitations/implications – The sample of cross-listed Chinese firms that are allowed to be sold short or bought on margin are rather limited. Hence, the results should be read with some caution. Practical implications – The removal of short selling constraints appears to improve the contribution of the respective markets to the process price discovery, in the case for larger cross-listed firms. Originality/value – The authors shed new lights on how the introduction of short selling and margin trading impacts on the price discovery of the Chinese cross-listed firms. A further contribution of the study is the use of high frequency data, while most of the previous studies on the Chinese markets use daily data.

Analysis of ETF bid-ask spread components

Abstract In this study we examine on intradaily basis (milliseconds) the largest 100 ETFs’ bid-ask spread components in the period March 21, 2014 to April 17, 2014. We document that ETFs have lower proportion of adverse selection in the bid-ask spread relative to stocks, which also means that the order processing cost component is higher in ETFs. This suggests that uninformed investors prefer to trade ETFs relative to individual stocks. The data in our study also suggests a U-shaped form of the adverse selection component across four categories of ETF trading volume and not a monotone decreasing relation from lowest to highest trading volume ETFs. Fixed-income ETFs have the highest adverse selection component coefficient whereas real estate ETFs have the lowest. Additionally, mutual fund structured ETFs have lower adverse selection component coefficient than the trust structured ETFs. We also document that ETFs with more quotes have lower adverse selection; whereas ETFs with higher average bid price, higher expense ratio and trust structuring of the ETF have higher adverse selection component of the bid-ask spread.

The Noninformation Cost of Trading and Its Relative Importance in Asset Pricing

We show that the noninformation component of trading costs is priced in thecross-section of stock returns using intraday data for NYSE/AMEX stocks. Moreimportantly, we show that the noninformation component is much larger and morestrongly related to stock returns than is the adverse-selection component,indicating that the noninformation component plays a more important role inasset pricing than does the adverse-section component. We conduct a variety ofrobustness tests and show that our main results hold for different estimationmethods, measures of the adverse-selection cost, subsample periods, and controlvariables. We offer plausible explanations for these results.

Short selling, margin trading, and the incorporation of new information into prices

Utilizing daily data on Chinese stocks' short selling and margin trading activities and intraday stock trade and quote data, we find a positive association between the degree of information efficiency of stock prices and the intensity of short selling and margin trading. Short selling (margin buying) escalates during the 5days immediately before significant negative (positive) information events, which suggests short sellers (margin buyers) anticipate forthcoming news. Using the adverse selection component of the bid–ask spread as a proxy, we find that short selling and margin trading are associated with an improved information environment. Taken together, our empirical evidence supports the conjecture that short selling and margin trading in the Chinese market help stock prices incorporate new information more efficiently. Utilizing the unique Chinese regulation, we also examine the role of brokerages authorized for such trading and document a non-linear relation between pricing efficiency and the number of authorized brokerages.

Rumors and Runs in Opaque Markets: Evidence from Panic of 1907

Using a new daily dataset for all stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange from 1905 to 1910, we provide the first in-depth, microstructure analysis of the Panic of 1907 - one of the most severe financial crises of the 20th century - and quantify the critical role of asymmetric information in the generation of panic conditions. We first show that quoted equity bid-ask spreads rose six-fold, from 0.5% to 3%, during the peak weeks of the crisis. We then implement a spread decomposition procedure and pinpoint the source of the illiquidity spike in the adverse selection component; that is, the fear of informed trading. Moreover, we show that information costs rose most steeply in the mining sector - the origin of the panic rumors - and in other sectors with opaque corporate reporting standards. In addition to wider spreads and tight money markets, we find other hallmarks of information-based liquidity freezes: trading volume dropped and price impact rose. Importantly, despite shortterm cash infusions into the market, and abatement of the run, we find that the market remained relatively illiquid for several months following the panic. We go on to show that rising illiquidity enters positively in the cross section of stock returns. Thus, our findings demonstrate how opaque markets can easily transmit an idiosyncratic rumor into a long-lasting, market-wide crisis. Our results also demonstrate the usefulness of illiquidity measures to alert market participants to impending market runs.

Corporate Disclosures, Information Asymmetry And Stock-Market Liquidity In France

This paper aims at studying the effect of corporate disclosures on information asymmetry and stock-market liquidity in France. Specifically, the purpose of this paper is to highlight the importance of information included in the annual reports on investors behavior. This is proxied by the information asymmetry component of the bid-ask spread and stock market liquidity. Our sample includes 196 French listed firms over a period ranging from 2004 to 2007. The results show that the extent of corporate disclosures in annual reports positively influences the liquidity of the French market and negatively affects the adverse selection component of the bid-ask spread. This effect is further confirmed by the commitment to IFRS by French-listed firms since 2005. Results on sub-scores show that non-financial and financial information are important in trading decisions while strategic information may be attractive only for long-term positions.

Adverse selection and the presence of informed trading

Abstract We combine two concepts of informed trading – contrarian trades and stealth trading – to develop proxies for the probability of informed trading. These proxies are used to test the link between informed trading and adverse selection as measured by bid–ask spreads and stock illiquidity. The estimation results show that these proxies, which are based on the probability of contrarian trading (PC) and progressively refined thereon, are all highly significantly positive in various empirical specifications of the cross-sectional determinants of spreads and illiquidity across stocks, and after controlling for important firm characteristics and trading factors. The robustness of our PC-based proxies for informed trading in these analyses, especially for the further refined measures, suggests that they successfully capture the adverse selection component of bid–ask spreads and illiquidity due to information asymmetry.

Information asymmetry around S&P 500 index changes

Purpose – This study aims to explore information asymmetry (IA) (as measured by the adverse selection component of the bid-ask spread) around S&P 500 revisions. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use adverse selection cost of trading measures to examine the effects of S&P 500 index composition changes on the trading environment from 2001 to 2010. Findings – The authors find that the adverse selection cost of trading significantly decreases post-addition and increases post-deletion. However, the intraday price dynamics of additions to the index seem to be distinct from those of deletions from the index. The event period cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) for additions are significantly associated with the change in the adverse selection cost of trading. However, this association is non-significant for deletions. The CARs for deletion events are found to be significantly associated with the change in realized spreads. Realized spreads are a measure of revenue earned by liquidity providers in the market. Originality/value – This study helps better understand the dynamics of two types of IA – one from a firm to investor and the other between investors – and presents evidence of the role of adverse selection in index changes. By doing so, it helps better understand the mechanism driving price formation post-addition to and deletion from an index.

Risk sentiment and firms’ liquidity in the French market

This paper investigates the impact of risk sentiment on market liquidity by using panel data. We use six risk word lists; uncertain, weak model, negative, legal, opportunity, and environmental & social responsibility word lists to measure the risk sentiment. Concerning the liquidity proxies, we use three measures, quoted spread, effective spread, and adverse selection component. The results indicate that an intensive risk tone and uncertain information in annual reports lead to decreased liquidity. In addition we find that risk sentiment variable impacts the liquidity but not vice versa.