Air Advection Research Articles

Impact of Reduced Arctic Sea Ice on Northern Hemisphere Climate and Weather in Autumn and Winter

AbstractThe Northern Hemisphere transient atmospheric response to Arctic sea decline is investigated in autumn and winter, using sensitivity experiments performed with the CNRMCM6-1 high-top climate model. Arctic sea ice albedo is reduced to the ocean value, yielding ice-free conditions during summer and a more moderate sea ice reduction during the following months. A strong ampli_cation of temperatures over the Arctic is induced by sea ice loss, with values reaching up to 25°C near the surface in autumn. Signi_cant surface temperature anomalies are also found over the mid-latitudes, with a warming reaching 1°C over North America and Europe, and a cooling reaching 1°C over central Asia. Using a dynamical adjustment method based on a regional reconstruction of circulation analogs, we show that the warming over North America and Europe can be explained both by changes in the atmospheric circulation and by the advection of warmer oceanic air by the climatological ow. In contrast, we demonstrate that the sea-ice induced cooling over central Asia is solely due to dynamical changes, involving an intensi_cation of the Siberian High and a cyclonic anomaly over the Sea of Okhotsk. In the troposphere, the abrupt Arctic sea ice decline favours a narrowing of the subtropical jet stream and a slight weakening of the lower part of the polar vortex that is explained by a weak enhancement of upward wave activity toward the stratosphere. We further show that reduced Arctic sea ice in our experiments is mainly associated with less severe cold extremes in the mid-latitudes.

Atmospheric Thermal and Dynamic Vertical Structures of Summer Hourly Precipitation in Jiulong of the Tibetan Plateau

It is an important to study atmospheric thermal and dynamic vertical structures over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and their impact on precipitation by using long-term observation at representative stations. This study exhibits the observational facts of summer precipitation variation on subdiurnal scale and its atmospheric thermal and dynamic vertical structures over the TP with hourly precipitation and intensive soundings in Jiulong during 2013–2020. It is found that precipitation amount and frequency are low in the daytime and high in the nighttime, and hourly precipitation greater than 1 mm mostly occurs at nighttime. Weak precipitation during the daytime may be caused by air advection, and strong precipitation at nighttime may be closely related with air convection. Both humidity and wind speed profiles show obvious fluctuation when precipitation occurs, and the greater the precipitation intensity, the larger the fluctuation. Moreover, the fluctuation of wind speed is small in the morning, large at noon and largest at night, presenting a similar diurnal cycle to that of convective activity over the TP, which is conductive to nighttime precipitation. Additionally, the inverse layer is accompanied by the inverse humidity layer, and wind speed presents multi-peaks distribution in its vertical structure. Both of these are closely related with the underlying surface and topography of Jiulong. More studies on physical mechanism and numerical simulation are necessary for better understanding the atmospheric phenomenon over the TP.

The role of air–sea fluxes for the water vapour isotope signals in the cold and warm sectors of extratropical cyclones over the Southern Ocean

Abstract. Meridional atmospheric transport is an important process in the climate system and has implications for the availability of heat and moisture at high latitudes. Near-surface cold and warm temperature advection over the ocean in the context of extratropical cyclones additionally leads to important air–sea exchange. In this paper, we investigate the impact of these air–sea fluxes on the stable water isotope (SWI) composition of water vapour in the Southern Ocean's atmospheric boundary layer. SWIs serve as a tool to trace phase change processes involved in the atmospheric water cycle and, thus, provide important insight into moist atmospheric processes associated with extratropical cyclones. Here we combine a 3-month ship-based SWI measurement data set around Antarctica with a series of regional high-resolution numerical model simulations from the isotope-enabled numerical weather prediction model COSMOiso. We objectively identify atmospheric cold and warm temperature advection associated with the cold and warm sector of extratropical cyclones, respectively, based on the air–sea temperature difference applied to the measurement and the simulation data sets. A Lagrangian composite analysis of temperature advection based on the COSMOiso simulation data is compiled to identify the main processes affecting the observed variability of the isotopic signal in marine boundary layer water vapour in the region from 35 to 70∘ S. This analysis shows that the cold and warm sectors of extratropical cyclones are associated with contrasting SWI signals. Specifically, the measurements show that the median values of δ18O and δ2H in the atmospheric water vapour are 3.8 ‰ and 27.9 ‰ higher during warm than during cold advection. The median value of the second-order isotope variable deuterium excess d, which can be used as a measure of non-equilibrium processes during phase changes, is 6.4 ‰ lower during warm than during cold advection. These characteristic isotope signals during cold and warm advection reflect the opposite air–sea fluxes associated with these large-scale transport events. The trajectory-based analysis reveals that the SWI signals in the cold sector are mainly shaped by ocean evaporation. In the warm sector, the air masses experience a net loss of moisture due to dew deposition as they are advected over the relatively colder ocean, which leads to the observed low d. We show that additionally the formation of clouds and precipitation in moist adiabatically ascending warm air parcels can decrease d in boundary layer water vapour. These findings illustrate the highly variable isotopic composition in water vapour due to contrasting air–sea interactions during cold and warm advection, respectively, induced by the circulation associated with extratropical cyclones. SWIs can thus potentially be useful as tracers for meridional air advection and other characteristics associated with the dynamics of the storm tracks over interannual timescales.

Advection Fog over the Eastern Yellow Sea: WRF Simulation and Its Verification by Satellite and In Situ Observations

An observed sea fog event over the Eastern Yellow Sea on 15–16 April 2012 was reproduced in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulation with high-resolution to investigate the roles of physical processes and synoptic-scale flows on advection fog with phase transition. First, it was verified by a satellite-based fog detection algorithm and in situ observation data. In the simulation, longwave (infrared) radiative cooling (LRC) with a downward turbulent sensible heat flux (SHF), due to the turbulence after sunset, triggered cloud formation over the surface when warm-moist air advection occurred. At night, warm air advection with continuous cooling due to longwave radiation and SHF near the surface modulated the change of the SHF from downward to upward, resulting in a drastic increase in the turbulent latent heat flux (LHF) that provided sufficient moisture at the lower atmosphere (self-moistening). This condition represents a transition from cold-sea fog to warm-sea fog. Enhanced turbulent mixing driven by a buoyancy force increased the depth of the sea fog and the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) height, even at nighttime. In addition, cold air advection with a prevailing northerly wind at the top of the MABL led to a drastic increase in turbulent mixing and the MABL height and rapid growth of the height of sea fog. After sunrise, shortwave radiative warming in the fog layers offsetting the LRC near the surface weakened thermal instability, which contributed to the reduction in the MABL height, even during the daytime. In addition, dry advection of the northerly wind induced dissipation of the fog via evaporation. An additional sensitivity test of sea surface salinity showed weaker and shallower sea fog than the control due to the decrease in both the LHF and local self-moistening. Detailed findings from the simulated fog event can help to provide better guidance for fog detection using remote sensing.

Daily Variations In Wet Deposition And Washout Rates Of Potentially Toxic Elements In Moscow During Spring Season

For the first time, the wet deposition and washout rates of soluble forms of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) were estimated in rains during the spring AeroRadCity experiment in Moscow. Rains are an important factor in reducing atmospheric pollution with PTEs in Moscow. Due to the resuspension of contaminated particles of road dust and urban soils, industrial and traffic impact, waste and biomass burning, rainwater is highly enriched in Sb, Pb, Se, Cd, and S, and less enriched in P, Ba, As, W, Mn, Sn, Na, Co, Ni, and Be. Significant wet deposition (μg/m2 per event) and washout rates (μg/m2 per hour) of PTEs were revealed during the public holidays in May which corresponded to the elevated aerosol content due to predominant air advection from southern and south-western regions in this period. During continuous rains, the level of PTEs wet deposition sharply decreases on the second and subsequent days due to the active below-cloud washout of aerosols during the initial precipitation events. We show that the length of the dry period and aerosol content before the onset of rain determines the amount of solid particles in rainwater, which leads to an increase in rainwater pH, and strongly affects wet deposition and washout rates of PTEs of mainly anthropogenic origin (W, Zn, Bi, Cd, Sb, Ni, B, S, K, and Cu). At the same time rainfall intensity contributes to an increase in wet deposition and washout rates of Se, As, B, Cu, Sb, S, Cd, Ba, Rb, and K. The obtained results provide a better understanding of atmospheric deposition processes and can be useful in assessing the urban environmental quality.

The total solar eclipse of December 14, 2020 in southern South America and its effects on atmospheric variables

AbstractA total solar eclipse affected southern South America on December 14, 2020. Its occurrence close to the summer solstice in the Southern Hemisphere and around noon brought almost ideal conditions to study the effects of the sudden reduction in incoming solar radiation on different atmospheric variables. Interestingly, the astronomical phenomenon moved over a region that at that time was being affected by a cold front accompanied by significant cloudiness and cold air advection to the area. Therefore, the actual drop in surface temperature over the umbra region resulted from a combination of the radiative effect (i.e., the reduction in solar radiation due to the eclipse itself) and a circulation effect related to the injection of colder air. A quantification of both effects on the full temperature variation is provided, along with a discussion on the underlying mechanisms and the related effects on surface winds derived from the cooling. Results show that temperature drops associated with total solar eclipses in areas far away from the umbra can be as high as (or even higher than) those within the umbra, depending on the prevailing weather conditions.

Evaluation of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height From Wind Profiling Radar and Slab Models and Its Responses to Seasonality of Land Cover, Subsidence, and Advection

AbstractIn this study, we evaluated the effect of land cover, atmospheric subsidence, and advection on the annual dynamics of atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) height from two contrasting sites. The first site is the Walker Branch forest, a deciduous forest of temperate climate, complex topography, and cloudy summers. The second site is the Sacramento‐San Joaquin River Delta, a site of Mediterranean climate, flat terrain on a local scale, and clear summers. After testing a new algorithm to calculate ABL heights from 915 MHz radar wind profilers, we evaluated a hierarchy of three slab models to recreate the diurnal and annual patterns of ABL growth. We found that the lower ABL heights in the Delta, particularly during late summer, are driven by the combined effects of increased atmospheric subsidence and marine air advection. In both sites, the annual pattern of ABL height was strongly correlated to total daily incoming radiation, and in the Delta, the annual pattern of ABL height closely followed the seasonal patterns of sensible heat flux from a mosaic of different land covers. A land composite of latent and sensible heat fluxes obtained through a meso‐network of eddy covariance measurements and the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) mission resulted in higher model skill, thus showing that land cover heterogeneity is an important driver of ABL growth. Model simulations show that in the Delta, restoring agricultural land to wetlands with large open water areas could result in a reduction of ABL height during those months with low subsidence and advection.

Mesoscale convective systems as a source of electromagnetic signals registered by ground-based system and DEMETER (Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions) satellite

Abstract. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are especially visible in the summertime when there is an advection of warm maritime air from the west. Advection of air masses is enriched by water vapour, the source of which can be found over the Mediterranean Sea. In propitious atmospheric conditions, and thus significant convection, atmospheric instability or strong vertical thermal gradient leads to the development of strong thunderstorm systems. In this paper, we discuss one case of MCSs, which generated a significant amount of +CG (cloud-to-ground), −CG and intracloud (IC) discharges. We have focused on the ELF (extremely low frequency; < 1 kHz) electromagnetic field measurements, since they allow us to compute the charge moments of atmospheric discharges. Identification of the MCSs is a complex process, due to many variables which have to be taken into account. For our research, we took into consideration a few tools, such as cloud reflectivity, atmospheric soundings and data provided by PERUN (Polish system of the discharge localisation system), which operates in a very high frequency (VHF) range (113.5–114.5 MHz). Combining the above-described measurement systems and tools, we identified a MCS which occurred in Poland on 23 July 2009. Furthermore, it fulfilled our requirements since the thunderstorm crossed the path of the DEMETER (Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions) overpass.

Inhomogeneity of the surface air temperature record from Halley, Antarctica

AbstractCommencing in 1956, observations made at Halley Research Station, Antarctica provide one of the longest continuous series of near-surface temperature observations from the Antarctic continent. Since few other records of comparable length are available, the Halley record has been used extensively in studies of long-term Antarctic climate variability and change. The record does not, however, come from a single location but is a composite of observations from a sequence of seven stations, all situated on the Brunt Ice Shelf, that range from around 10 km to 50 km distance from the coast. Until now, it has generally been assumed that temperature data from all of these stations could be combined into a single composite record with no adjustment. Here, we examine this assumption of homogeneity. Application of a statistical change point algorithm to the composite record detects a sudden cooling associated with the move from Halley IV to Halley V station in 1992. We show that this temperature step is consistent with local temperature gradients measured by a network of automatic weather stations and with those simulated by a high-resolution atmospheric model. These temperature gradients are strongest in the coastal region and result from the onshore advection of maritime air. The detected inhomogeneity could account for the weak cooling trend seen in the uncorrected composite record. In future, studies that make use of the Halley record will need to account for its inhomogeneity.

External controls on CO2 in Gibraltar cave air and ground air: Implications for interpretation of δ13C in speleothems

The principles of cave ventilation and ground air advection are outlined. CO2 concentrations were monitored every 2–4 h from 2006 to 2012 at twelve locations in two Gibraltar caves, New St. Michael's (240–275 m altitude) and Ragged Staff (0–70 m), providing detailed records of spatial distribution and temporal changes responding to transient meteorological conditions and seasonal cycles. Cave atmospheres are dynamic mixtures of external air and CO2-rich ground air containing soil-respired CO2 augmented by CO2 derived from oxidation of organic matter washed down into the vadose fracture porosity. The dominant feature of the cave air records is seasonal alternation between high and low CO2 states caused by reversals in ventilation and ground air advection into or away from the caves. The high and low pCO2 states are tightly coupled between the two caves in an antiphase relationship, with rapid switching in response to temperature-controlled density differences between external air and isothermal ground air at mean annual surface temperature (18 °C). The diurnal temperature cycle modulates this pattern, producing four ventilation-advection modes. Summer and winter modes occur when diurnal temperatures are respectively entirely above or below the core temperature of the Rock. During transitional modes the core temperature lies within the diurnal range and pCO2 fluctuates rapidly as the flow of low-CO2 external air through cave entrances alters in response. Strong easterly winds reduce CO2 concentrations in ground air entering the caves and progressively lower cave air CO2. The effects of the CO2 regime on δ13C in speleothem are restricted to variations of 2–3‰, suggesting that larger changes of up to 6‰ across major climatic transitions probably reflect changes in production, transport and oxidation rate of organic matter in the vadose zone. Direct observations of these processes would improve future understanding of the climatic significance of δ13C records in speleothems.

Importance of regional indices of atmospheric circulation for periods of warming and cooling in Svalbard during 1920–2018

AbstractThe Arctic has experienced prominent climate warming, at the beginning of the 20th century and currently. Comparing the driving mechanism during these periods helps to explain the causes of contemporary climate change. Our study explores the impact of regional circulation on Svalbard's surface air temperature (SAT, 2 m above ground). We used air temperature data from Svalbard Airport, Bjørnøya stations, and three regional circulation indices that describe the frequency of cyclonic conditions, zonal circulation, and meridional circulation. The indices were calculated for four circulation areas with differing circulation conditions and, therefore, may have various impacts on long‐term changes in SAT. This was checked for the entire study period (1920–2018), and 30‐year sub‐periods representing the most prominent climatic events: the early 20th‐century Arctic warming (ETCAW), contemporary Arctic warming (CAW), and a cold period between them (CAP). In autumn and winter, the deviations in SAT from the long‐term average during warm and cold periods were almost twice as large at Svalbard Airport as at Bjørnøya. In these seasons, the ETCAW was significantly warmer than the subsequent cold period, which was not the case for summer and spring. However, long‐term trends in the regional circulation indices were more evident in summer and spring than in autumn and winter. Air temperature was the most strongly influenced by meridional circulation over the eastern circulation areas, with the exception of spring, when air temperature variability was more affected by zonal circulation. The recent warming weakened the relationship between SAT and the indices in summer. We attributed the ETCAW in autumn to a southerly advection of sensible heat. During the same historical period, the impact of the indices was much weaker in winter. In winter during the CAP, there was a higher frequency of northern air advection, particularly over the northern part of the Greenland Sea.

Diagnosis and Numerical Modeling of an Explosive Cyclone over the Northwestern Pacific

An explosive cyclone that took place over the Northwestern Pacific from 12 UTC 18 to 18 UTC 21 November 2007 was investigated. The synoptic situations and structure of this cyclone were documented by using the 1° × 1° final analysis data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction. This cyclone developed explosively around 18 UTC 19 and reached its maximum deepening rate (MDR, 1.3 Bergeron) around 06 UTC 20 November 2007. At its MDR moment, the surface cyclone center was located in the downstream of the upper-level trough and northern entrance zone of the upper-level jet. The diagnosis using Zwack-Okossi equation suggested that cyclonic-vorticity advection and warm air advection acted to deepen this cyclone, while adiabatic cooling suppressed its development. In an investigation of this cyclone development, numerical sensitivity results obtained by using the Weather and Research Forecasting model showed that the latent heat release in the lower level had less contribution, whereas the surface sensible and latent fluxes played important roles. With a warmer ocean surface, the cyclone tended to intensify. Two topography tests were designed to examine the mountain influences on the development of this cyclone: removing a mountain and doubling the height of a mountain. Results show that the Changbai Mountains suppressed the development of the cyclone by preventing the southern moisture air from invading the inland. Without the moisture air, no latent heat release occurs when this cyclone passes over the Changbai Mountains.

Remote Influence of the Midlatitude South Atlantic Variability in Spring on Antarctic Summer Sea Ice

AbstractRelationship between Antarctic sea ice and the Southern Annular Mode and tropical climate variability has been widely studied. Focusing on the midlatitude oceanic frontal zones, this study identifies a fingerprint of South Atlantic (SA) variability in the Antarctic summer sea ice. The interaction between spring SA sea surface temperature (SST) and summer storm‐track activity modulates the hemispheric atmospheric circulation, which in turn alters Antarctic summer sea ice concentration (SIC) through thermal and wind‐driven forcing. Specifically, warm SST anomalies in the western SA frontal zone, corresponding to the strengthened SST front, cause the increased SIC in the eastern Ross Sea via anomalous cold air advection and offshore drift of sea ice. The opposite effect (i.e., warm air advection and onshore ice drift) results in the decreased SIC in the northwestern Weddell Sea. The findings also imply a potential impact of the midlatitude SA variability to the South Pole air temperature variability.

Land-Surface Diurnal Effects on the Asymmetric Structures of a Postlandfall Tropical Storm.

After a tropical storm makes landfall, its vortex interacts with the surrounding environment and the underlying surface. It is expected that diurnal variation over land will affect storm structures. However, this has not yet been explored in previous studies. In this paper, numerical simulation of postlandfall Tropical Storm Bill (2015) is conducted using a research version of the NCEP Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model. Results indicate that during the storm's interaction with midlatitude westerlies over the Great Plains, the simulated storm with the SLAB land‐surface scheme is stronger, with faster eastward movement and attenuation, and more asymmetric structures than that with the NOAH land‐surface scheme. More symmetric structures correspond with a slower weakening and slower eastward movement of the storm over land. Further diagnoses suggest an obvious response of the storm's asymmetric structures to diurnal effects over land. Surface diabatic heating in the storm environment is important for the storm's symmetric structures and intensity over land. Specifically, during the transition from nighttime to daytime, the evident strengthening of convective instability, atmospheric baroclinicity, and the lateral advection of high θe air in the storm environment, associated with the rapid increase in surface diabatic heating, are conducive to the development of vertical vorticity and storm‐relative helicity, thus contributing to the maintenance of the storm's symmetric structures and intensity after landfall.

Synoptic processes over the Kodar glacier zone during the ablation period

The small glaciers of the Kodar ridge (south of Eastern Siberia), located inland Asia under the influence of both Atlantic and Pacific air transport, are the valuable objects for studying their response to changes in mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. However, detailed meteorological studies on the glaciers have been limited so far. For the first time, in July–August 2019, the meteorological characteristics were measured on the Sygyktinsky glacier using automatic weather station. We have analyzed the relationship between variations of large-scale atmospheric circulation and meteorological regime of the glacier using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data. During the observation period, Kodar was under the influence of a positive geopotential anomaly in the lower troposphere, which determined increased temperatures and decreased relative humidity and precipitation. Quasi-cyclic fluctuations in meteorological time series (e.g. air temperature) reflect the influence of large scale synoptic changes caused by the front passages, warm and cold air advections. High ablation rates on the glacier were associated with anticyclones, subtropical ridges, and warm air advections (from southeast and southwest), while decreased ablation was observed during the cyclone passage and cold air advection (from north, northeast, and west).

Heavy Winter Precipitation Events with Extratropical Cyclone Diagnosed by GPM Products and Trajectory Analysis

Heavy precipitation events were identified during the cold seasons of 2014–2019 using two-day accumulated precipitation data at 137 stations of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The mechanisms for producing heavy precipitation regarding the structure of an occluding extratropical cyclone were analyzed using the products of the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) onboard the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) core satellite and trajectory analysis on the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis data. Upper-ranked events with heavy precipitation were predominantly caused by extratropical cyclones and were in mature stages. In the top 50 ranked events, three south-coast cyclones were nominated, and the relationships between developing the mesoscale precipitation system and airstreams were intensively diagnosed. Hourly precipitation changes at stations that recorded heavy precipitation were primarily affected by a combination of the warm conveyor belt (WCB), cold conveyor belt (CCB), and dry intrusion (DI). Wide-ranging stratiform precipitation east of the cyclone center was composed of low-level WCB over the CCB and upper WCB, and convective clouds around the cyclone center were associated with the upper DI over the WCB that provided an extreme precipitation rate at the surface, including the formation of a band-shaped precipitation system. Convective cloud activities also contributed to moist air advection over the stationary stratiform precipitation areas recognized as the upper WCB. DPR products also identified deep stratiform precipitation in the cloud-head area behind the cyclone center with mid-level (near-surface) latent heat release (absorption) with increased potential vorticity along the CCB, making feedback intensification of the cyclone possible.

East coast lows and extratropical transition of tropical cyclones, structures producing severe events and their comparison with mature tropical cyclones

Examination of events occurring over the last 53 years in the Australian Region have revealed in the minds of forecasters a common pattern in the development of severe extratropical cyclones which have affected the sub-tropical and temperate East Coast. To evaluate this theory 20 years of data were systematically examined and showed that this was true. To represent these many cases nine such events which delivered the largest impacts over the 53 years were chosen for study. These extratropical cyclones formed downstream of a tropopause undulation which can be easily identified as a warm region at the 200 hPa-level and the formation zone was in a region of heavy rain embedded in a region of warm air advection at 700 hPa. There were hardly any exceptions to this general rule, and one that occurred is presented and was also one of the most rapidly developing systems. This pattern is then evaluated against tropical cyclone events which move in the Australasian sub tropics and three different scenarios are described and compared with a mature severe tropical cyclone which intensified as it moved into the Australia sub tropics. Hurricane Sandy due to its devastating effect on the US sub-tropics in 2012 is examined as a benchmark case whose impact could affect the Australasian sub tropics in the future as sea levels rise with higher density populations.

Widespread Persistent Extreme Cold Events Over South‐East China: Mechanisms, Trends, and Attribution

AbstractSouth‐East China usually experiences mild winter temperatures but can also be impacted by large‐scale and long‐lasting cold events. Here, we investigate how this category of events has changed during the past 6 decades and why, using both observation and climate model ensembles. We first show that models can reproduce the observed largescale dynamics associated with cold events. A dynamical advection of cold air is mostly responsible not only to trigger cold surges but also we found strong feedback from shortwave radiation, decreasing due to enhanced cloud cover. Recent trends are more difficult to evaluate. Models show a large internal variability and intermodel spread, while observation also indicates large uncertainties in its trend due to high internal variability. Our analysis indicates that even if cold events are likely to have been reduced due to greenhouse gases, trends cannot be attributed with high confidence to any anthropogenic signal alone. However, in the next few decades, the frequency of long‐lasting cold events are expected to quickly reduce due to the emerging greenhouse gases signal and possibly weakening aerosol effect over South‐East China. We also found that most of the trends are due to the change in the mean temperature. Thus, indirectly, there is no clear evidence that the change in cold event frequency is due to a change in the circulation.

Atmospheric tropical modes are important drivers of Sahelian springtime heatwaves

Heatwaves pose a serious threat to human health worldwide but remain poorly documented over Africa. This study uses mainly the ERA5 dataset to investigate their large-scale drivers over the Sahel region during boreal spring, with a focus on the role of tropical modes of variability including the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the equatorial Rossby and Kelvin waves. Heatwaves were defined from daily minimum and maximum temperatures using a methodology that retains only intraseasonal scale events of large spatial extent. The results show that tropical modes have a large influence on the occurrence of Sahelian heatwaves, and, to a lesser extent, on their intensity. Depending on their convective phase, they can either increase or inhibit heatwave occurrence, with the MJO being the most important of the investigated drivers. A certain sensitivity to the geographic location and the diurnal cycle is observed, with nighttime heatwaves more impacted by the modes over the eastern Sahel and daytime heatwaves more affected over the western Sahel. The examination of the physical mechanisms shows that the modulation is made possible through the perturbation of regional circulation. Tropical modes thus exert a control on moisture and the subsequent longwave radiation, as well as on the advection of hot air. A detailed case study of a major event, which took place in April 2003, further supports these findings. Given the potential predictability offered by tropical modes at the intraseasonal scale, this study has key implications for heatwave risk management in the Sahel.

Role of moist and dry air advection in the development of Mediterranean tropical‐like cyclones (medicanes)

AbstractTwo tropical‐like cyclones in the Mediterranean Sea, aka medicanes, are analysed herein by means of numerical simulations. The cyclones, which were recently investigated in Miglietta and Rotunno, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2019, 145, are reconsidered in the present study, in which we focus on their respective preconditioning phases. In particular, here we analyse how local evaporation and/or long‐range transport of air masses may precondition the environment where the Mediterranean cyclones form. Numerical simulations indicate a rather different behaviour for the two cyclones. The first medicane (December 13–15, 2005) developed over the southern Mediterranean Sea, in a region of high low‐level humidity content, which existed before the cyclone formation; the air, originally dry over the eastern Balkans and the African mainland, gained humidity during its transit over the sea surface. In contrast, the second medicane (October 6–10, 1996) strongly intensified while benefitting from the intense sea‐surface fluxes due to the outbreak of Tramontane and Cierzo winds near the Balearic Islands, where the cyclone developed. Although limited to just two case studies, these results identify two different mechanisms conducive to an environment favourable for the intensification of medicanes in the western or southern Mediterranean. In addition, the role of dry air near the cyclone core, associated with upper‐tropospheric dry intrusions, is analysed. Sensitivity experiments were performed, constraining the relative humidity in the initial and boundary conditions to values above 50%. The advantage of this strategy is the ability to change the humidity content in the dry regions without modifying the associated strong potential vorticity anomalies. For both cases, we find that the humidity increase had the effect of inducing an earlier onset of cyclone development and of producing stronger, longer‐lasting vortices.