Advancing Climate Change Research Articles

Upscaling urban data science for global climate solutions

Non-technical summaryManhattan, Berlin and New Delhi all need to take action to adapt to climate change and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While case studies on these cities provide valuable insights, comparability and scalability remain sidelined. It is therefore timely to review the state-of-the-art in data infrastructures, including earth observations, social media data, and how they could be better integrated to advance climate change science in cities and urban areas. We present three routes for expanding knowledge on global urban areas: mainstreaming data collections, amplifying the use of big data and taking further advantage of computational methods to analyse qualitative data to gain new insights. These data-based approaches have the potential to upscale urban climate solutions and effect change at the global scale.

Networking Cities after Paris: Weighing the Ambition of Urban Climate Change Experimentation

AbstractOver the past few decades, cities have repeatedly demonstrated high levels of ambition with regard to climate action. Global environmental governance has been marked by a proliferation of policy actions taken by local governments around the world to demonstrate their potential to advance climate change mitigation and adaptation. Leading ‘by example’ and demonstrating the extent of action that it is possible to deliver, cities have aspired to raise the ambition of national and international climate governance and put action into practice via a growing number of ‘climate change experiments’ delivered on the ground. Yet accounts of the potential of cities in global environmental governance have often stopped short of a systematic valuation of the nature and impact of the networked dimension of this action. This article addresses this by assessing the nature, and challenges faced by, urban climate governance in the post‐Paris era, focusing on the ‘experimentation’ undertaken in cities and the city networks shaping this type of governance. First, we unpack the concept of ‘urban climate change experimentation’, the ways in which it is networked, and the forces driving it. In the second and third parts of the article, we discuss two main pitfalls of networked urban experimentation in its current form, focusing on issues of scaling experiments and the nature of experimentation. We call for increased attention to ‘scaling up’ experiments beyond urban levels of governance, and to transformative experimentation with governance and politics by and in cities. Finally, we consider how these pitfalls allow us to weigh the potential of urban climate ambition, and consider the pathways available for supporting urban climate change experimentation.

Recent Progress and Emerging Topics on Weather and Climate Extremes Since the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Weather and climate extremes impose serious impacts on natural and human systems. In its fifth assessment report (AR5) and a special report [Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX)], the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provided a thorough assessment of observed and projected changes in extremes in a warming climate, with evidenced scientific gaps in the understanding of these responsive changes being reported. Reviewing post-AR5 literature, this article synthesizes recent advances regarding these previous gaps with respect to detection, attribution, and projection of extremes. We focus on constraints for the assessment confidence, overlooked types and characteristics of extremes, and changes in their thermodynamic-dynamic drivers. We also stress potential misinterpretations of existing results, propose an update of earlier key findings, and identify burgeoning topics.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Associated Climatic Conditions around the World during the Latter Half of the Twenty-First Century

AbstractIncreases in greenhouse gas emissions are expected to cause changes both in climatic variability in the Pacific linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and in long-term average climate. While mean state and variability changes have been studied separately, much less is known about their combined impact or relative importance. Additionally, studies of projected changes in ENSO have tended to focus on changes in, or adjacent to, the Pacific. Here we examine projected changes in climatic conditions during El Niño years and in ENSO-driven precipitation variability in 36 CMIP5 models. The models are forced according to the RCP8.5 scenario in which there are large, unmitigated increases in greenhouse gas concentrations during the twenty-first century. We examine changes over much of the globe, including 25 widely spread regions defined in the IPCC special report Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). We confirm that precipitation variability associated with ENSO is projected to increase in the tropical Pacific, consistent with earlier research. We also find that the enhanced tropical Pacific variability drives ENSO-related variability increases in 19 SREX regions during DJF and in 18 during JJA. This externally forced increase in ENSO-driven precipitation variability around the world is on the order of 15%–20%. An increase of this size, although substantial, is easily masked at the regional level by internally generated multidecadal variability in individual runs. The projected changes in El Niño–driven precipitation variability are typically much smaller than projected changes in both mean state and ENSO neutral conditions in nearly all regions.

Assessing the climate change and its impact on rice yields of Haridwar district using PRECIS RCM data

In the past few decades, continuous intervention with the environmental landscape in the form of land use practices (water diversions, deforestation, local agriculture practices, industrialization etc.) in the Haridwar district of Uttarakhand, India, has impacted the region on various accounts. This is likely to be further aggravated in view of the increasing variability in the weather condition. Thus, there is urgent need felt to quantitatively asses the future climatic scenario for initiating and effectively undertaking the adaptation strategies for safe and sustained agricultural growth. For undertaking this study, PRECIS RCM data was downloaded for Roorkee grid station for the period (1961–2090). This PRECIS RCM data was biased corrected by merging two different bias correction methods which involves correcting mean and standard deviation simultaneously. Observed and bias corrected daily data was tested for their significance at 95% probability of occurrence employing various statistical methods such as correlation coefficient, mean bias error, normalized mean squared error, and Z and F statistical tests. These tests revealed that the difference between the observed and bias corrected PRECIS RCM data was insignificant. Trend analysis was done using Mann-Kendall’s test and Theil Sen’s Slope. Analysis of the bias corrected data revealed that the Roorkee station will, in general, record increasing trends in rainfall (at 5.83 mm/year), maximum temperature (at 0.05 °C/year), and minimum temperature (at 0.04 °C/year). This indicates that by 2090 AD present normal rainfall of 1006 mm/year will rise to 1447 mm/year; maximum temperature of 30.1 °C will rise to 33.9 °C and minimum temperature of 17.5 °C will rise to 20.5 °C by 2090. This weather scenario cautions at the future agronomic practices for sustained productivity. Grain yield of rice cv. Sharbati for the period 2014–2090 was simulated by running DSSAT CERES rice model with PRECIS RCM weather data of Haridwar district and RCP CO2 emission scenarios. The simulation result showed that if the crop is grown with the existing soil and crop management conditions, rice productivity of Haridwar in general will decrease 31.7 kgs/ha/year. This could be attributed to the climate change and decreased rice yields from increased maximum temperature. In the case of RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5, the effect of CO2 on grain yields is more pronounced compared to RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5. With the higher CO2 concentrations (above 450 ppm), the rice crop cv. Sharbati did not show much CO2 fertilization effect. DSSAT CERES rice simulations under climate change and higher CO2 concentrations showed that the yields will decline with the advancing climate change but CO2 intervention will compensate the loss in yield.

Climate change and Canada’s north coast: research trends, progress, and future directions

This paper identifies and characterizes current knowledge on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability for Canada’s northern coastline, outlining key research gaps. Warming temperatures and increased precipitation have been documented across the northern coast, with the rate of sea ice decline ranging from 2.9% to 10.4% per decade. Storm intensity and frequency is increasing, and permafrost is warming across the region. Many of these changes are projected to accelerate in the future, with in excess of 8 °C warming in winter possible under a high-emission scenario by 2081–2100. Vulnerability to these changes differs by region and community, a function of geographic location, nature of climate change impacts, and human factors. Capacity to manage climate change is high in some sectors, such as subsistence harvesting, but is being undermined by long-term societal changes. In other sectors, such as infrastructure and transportation, limitations in climate risk management capacity result in continuing high vulnerabilities. There is evidence that adaptation is taking place in response to experienced and projected impacts, although readiness for adaptation is challenged by limited resources, institutional capacity, and a need for support for adaptation across levels of government. Priority areas for future research include (i) expanding the sectoral and geographic focus of understanding on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability; (ii) integrating climatic and socio-economic projections into vulnerability and adaptation assessments; (iii) developing an evidence base on adaptation options; and (iv) monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation support. Cross-cutting themes for advancing climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability research on the north coast more broadly include the need for greater emphasis on interdisciplinary approaches and cross-cultural collaborations, support for decision-orientated research, and focus on effective knowledge mobilization.

Confronting Climate Change Challenges to Dryland Cereal Production: A Call for Collaborative, Transdisciplinary Research, and Producer Engagement

Semi-arid cereal systems face challenges worldwide that are driven by ongoing and projected climate change. These challenges include ensuring cropping system resilience and productivity under changing water and temperature regimes while reversing soil degradation, reducing crop susceptibility to pests, pathogens and weed competition, and exploiting genetic resources to develop cultivars with resilience to climate stresses and improved compatibility with cropping system innovations. Meeting these interdependent challenges requires transdisciplinary efforts that integrate knowledge across many scientific domains. The USDA-NIFA-funded coordinated agricultural project, “Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture” (REACCH), employed this transdisciplinary approach to address climate change and sustainability challenges for rain-fed cereal-based systems in the semi-arid intermountain Pacific Northwest. To engage with and contribute to similar efforts globally, REACCH sponsored a workshop “Transitioning Cereal Systems to Adapt to Climate Change” (TCSACC) in November 2015. Participants from 17 countries and five continents with expertise in agronomy, crop physiology, crop modeling, crop protection, breeding and genetics, sociology and economics shared their perspectives, successes, and challenges to achieving transdisciplinary research integration for semi-arid cereal systems under changing climates. Conference goals were to: (1) strengthen the global network of researchers addressing climate change effects on semi-arid cereal-based systems, (2) share the approaches to achieving transdisciplinary collaboration to advance climate change resilience in cereal systems, and (3) identify the elements of a collaborative research agenda that are needed to advance global food security in the 21st century. This paper distills the conference themes and summarizes the calls to action that were discussed.

Housing is Essential: A Commonsense Paradigm Shift to Solve the Urban Displacement and Racial Injustice Crisis

This article addresses one of the biggest tests of our society: the urban displacement and racial injustice crisis. Today’s urban displacement crisis has reached a social change tipping point, but most solutions being advanced fail to prevent immediate displacement. This article debunks the prevailing strategies focused on building more market rate or affordable housing units as being able to effectively prevent displacement. It examines the impacts of urban displacement on the collective self-interest to advance climate change and racial equity. Lastly, the article provides an alternative vision for a paradigm shift based upon an understanding that housing is essential to public goods like clean air, clean water, and K-12 education. California and Oakland, California are used as case studies since they are the epicenter of the national housing unaffordability crisis and because of the authors’ work as policy change practitioners designing and implementing anti-displacement solutions in these communities.

Social Vulnerability to Climate Change in Temperate Forest Areas: New Measures of Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity

Human communities in forested areas that are expected to experience climate-related changes have received little attention in the scholarly literature on vulnerability assessment. Many communities rely on forest ecosystems to support their social and economic livelihoods. Climate change could alter these ecosystems. We developed a framework that measures social vulnerability to slow-onset climate-related changes in forest ecosystems. We focused on temperate forests because this biome is expected to experience dramatic change in the coming years, with adverse effects for humans. We advance climate change vulnerability science by making improvements to measures of exposure and sensitivity and by incorporating a measure of adaptive capacity. We improved on other methods of assessing exposure by incorporating climate change model projections and thus a temporal perspective. We improved on other methods of assessing sensitivity by incorporating a variable representing interdependency between human populations and forests. We incorporated a measure of adaptive capacity to account for ways socioeconomic conditions might mitigate exposure and sensitivity. Our geographic focus was the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. We found that fifteen of the region's seventy-five counties were highly vulnerable to climate-related changes due to some combination of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Nine counties were highly vulnerable because they ranked very high in terms of exposure and sensitivity and very low in terms of adaptive capacity. The framework we developed could be useful for investigations of vulnerability to climate change in other forested contexts and in other ecological contexts where slow-onset changes might be expected under future climate conditions.

Drought and frost tolerance in rhododendron collection of the Mlyňany Arboretum (Slovakia): a screening for future climate

Abstract Rhododendrons are jewels of the Mlyňany Arboretum, Institute of Forest Ecology of the Slovak Academy of Sciences (IFE SAS). Blossoming in May, they attract thousands of visitors. But recently these woody plants have much suffered from climatic extremes such as summer droughts and winter frosts, associated with the advancing climate change. To assess the rhododendron collection’s stability, its drought and frost injury level were tested in field, in summer 2015 and winter 2017, respectively. The tested parameters were: leaf wilting and electrolyte leakage combined with shrub leaf area, insolation level and overall health state. We found that the drought effect was strong or very strong in only ca. 30% rhododendron species and ca. 10% rhododendron cultivars, and that around 60% shrubs showed no or only moderate symptoms of water deficit. The drought injury level was only associated with the genotype. The most tolerant / sensitive genotypes, commonly occurring in the park, were: R. catawbiense, R. ponticum, R. smirnowii, cv. ‘Boursault’, cv. ‘Cunningham’s White’ and cv. ‘Purpureum Elegans’ / R. fortunei and cv. ‘Tamarindos’. On the other hand, the most frequent response to frost in the observed rhododendron genotypes was moderate injury (28 and 37% for species and cultivars, respectively), nevertheless more than 18% species and almost 6% cultivars exhibited strong frost damage. Despite absence of significant differences in the factor-response between the species, we may suggest this decreasing sequence of the genotypes ordered according to their frost resistance: genotypes: cv. ‘Cunningham’s White’ > R. decorum > R. fortunei and cv. ‘Duke of York’ > R. smirnowii > cvs. ‘Purpureum Elegans’ and ‘Tamarindos’ > R. macrophyllum and cv. ‘Nova Zembla’ > R. catawbiense > R. ponticum. These results have been compared with similar works in rhododendron species/cultivars as well as suggested species drought/frost tolerance derived from climatic conditions in the area of their natural distribution.

Using diverse expertise to advance climate change fisheries science

As climate change continues to impact New England's coastal ecosystems and their related fisheries, the need for measuring, projecting, interpreting, and applying those impacts for adaptive management is expanding. In New England, different types of formal and informal research efforts that involve collaboration between the fishing community and traditional university and government researchers continue to develop to address some of this need. To better understand the opportunities and challenges that these collaborative research efforts face, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 18 members of the fishing and research communities who are engaged in advancing New England climate change and fisheries science. Participants showed clear concern for the impacts of climate change on New England fisheries and about the insufficient availability of the necessary science to manage for those impacts. They also noted a number of challenges in collaborative research, including poor communication and a lack of trust among fishers, researchers, and decision makers, as well as a lack of perceived credibility for research coming out of the fishing community. We identify a number of opportunities for improving collaboration and communication among these groups, which could build upon the identified value of existing collaborations.

Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework

Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on ‘off-reserve’ strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management.

Phosphorus and nitrogen starvation reveal life‐cycle specific responses in the metabolome of Emiliania huxleyi (Haptophyta)

AbstractThe coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi is a microalga with biogeochemical and biotechnological relevance, due to its high abundance in the ocean and its ability to form intricate calcium carbonate structures. Depletion of macronutrients in oceanic waters is very common and will likely enhance with advancing climate change. We present the first comprehensive metabolome study analyzing the effect of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) starvation on the diploid and haploid life‐cycle stage, applying various metabolome analysis methods to gain new insights in intracellular mechanisms to cope with nutrient starvation. P‐starvation led to an accumulation of many generic and especially N‐rich metabolites, including lipids, osmolytes, and pigments. This suggests that P‐starvation primarily arrests cell‐cycling due to lacking P for nucleic acid synthesis, but that enzymatic functionality is widely preserved. Also, the de‐epoxidation ratio of the xanthophyll cycle was upregulated in the diploid stage under P‐starvation, indicating increased nonphotochemical quenching, a response typically observed under high light stress. In contrast, N‐starvation resulted in a decrease of most central metabolites, also P‐containing ones, especially in the diploid stage, indicating that most enzymatic functionality ceased. The two investigated nutrient starvation conditions caused significantly different responses, contrary to previous assumptions derived from transcriptomic studies. Data highlight that instantaneous biochemical flux is a more dominant driver of the metabolome than the transcriptomically rearranged pathway patterns. Due to the fundamental nature of the observed responses it may be speculated that microalgae with similar nutrient requirements can cope better with P‐starvation than with N‐starvation.

Climate change and employment relations

A central, yet overlooked, aspect of contemporary employment relations is the growing impact climate change is having on workplace relations. This research note outlines how climate change and workplace relations are linked, the minimal academic focus this important research area has received and the limited response from employment relations actors to the climate change challenge. Some examples of ‘climate bargaining’ are given to demonstrate both the connection between employment relations and climate change and to provide possible models for meaningfully advancing climate change actions in the workplace.

Continuity and Change: Dealing with Political Volatility to Advance Climate Change Mitigation Strategies—Examples from the Transport Sector

As the recent withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement has shown, political volatility directly affects climate change mitigation policies, in particular in sectors, such as transport associated with long-term investments by individuals (vehicles) and by local and national governments (urban form and transport infrastructure and services). There is a large potential for cost-effective solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to improve the sustainability of the transport sector that is yet unexploited. Considering the cost-effectiveness and the potential for co-benefits, it is hard to understand why efficiency gains and CO2 emission reductions in the transport sector are still lagging behind this potential. Particularly interesting is the fact that there is substantial difference among countries with relatively similar economic performances in the development of their transport CO2 emissions over the past thirty years despite the fact that these countries had relatively similar access to efficient technologies and vehicles. This study aims to explore some well-established political science theories on the particular example of climate change mitigation in the transport sector in order to identify some of the factors that could help explain the variations in success of policies and strategies in this sector. The analysis suggests that institutional arrangements that contribute to consensus building in the political process provide a high level of political and policy stability which is vital to long-term changes in energy end-use sectors that rely on long-term investments. However, there is no direct correlation between institutional structures, e.g., corporatism and success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector. Environmental objectives need to be built into the consensus-based policy structure before actual policy progress can be observed. This usually takes longer in consensus democracies than in politically more agile majoritarian policy environments, but the policy stability that builds on corporatist institutional structures is likely to experience changes over a longer-term, in this case to a shift towards low-carbon transport that endures.

Deforestation and land use strongly effect soil organic carbon and nitrogen stock in Northwest Ethiopia

Soil is the largest terrestrial organic carbon pool and can act as a source or sink for atmospheric CO2. Although reliable soil carbon (SOC) stock measurements of major ecosystems are essential for predicting the influence of advancing climate change, comprehensive data on SOC stocks is still scarce for most ecosystems in subtropical areas. In this study, SOC and N stocks of different land use systems were investigated along a climatic gradient in Northwest Ethiopia. The land use systems ranged from dry subtropical Afromontane forest, as the baseline, to cropland as the most degraded system. In addition, we investigated the changes of SOC stocks after interventions to recover vegetation cover; these were eucalyptus plantations and an exclosure to prevent grazing. Total SOC varied between land use systems and ranged from 3.1kgCm−2 in croplands to 23.9kgCm−2 in natural forest, and average N stock ranged from 0.4kgNm−2 in croplands to 2.1kgNm−2 in natural forest. In forests, there were a clear vertical gradient in SOC and N stock down the soil profile, and 60% of the total SOC and N stocks were found in the upper 10cm soil depth. Using the Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios and the vertical distribution of the C/N ratio of the soil, the losses of SOC were shown to be due to loss of the of the upper soil layer. Afforestation of degraded croplands and grazing lands with eucalyptus increased SOC stocks to nearly 70% of the natural forest levels within 30years. Exclosure, which removed grazing pressure and allowed regeneration of native vegetation, increased SOC in the top soil only.

Analyzing Climate Change Communication Through Online Games

In search of innovative approaches capable of connecting climate change issues with teenagers, scholars and practitioners have become interested in harnessing the potential of gaming for advancing climate change communication. This article aims to propose a set of criteria, validated by experts through the Delphi method, by which to analyze communicative features of online climate change games. The use of the criteria is illustrated with an evaluation of a sample of Spanish games to which we apply qualitative content analysis, narratology, and ludology techniques. Our findings reveal some positive communicative trends in terms of narratives, contents, and gameplay.

Urban climate adaptation and the reshaping of state–society relations: The politics of community knowledge and mobilisation in Indore, India

Current research on climate change adaptation in cities highlights the role of local governments in facilitating adaptation actions, but rarely assesses whether (and if so, how) local communities organise around emerging climate priorities to affect political change. This paper explores changing state–society relationships through the reconstitution of community collectives and advocacy organisations for advancing climate change adaptation in the Indian city of Indore. The paper shows that communities are indeed recognising the need for adaptation but are, at the same time, integrating adaptation actions with existing strategies for advocating development rights. Communities are also rebuilding alliances between municipal and local institutions for public service and infrastructure provision, which point to the centrality of community politics in urban climate adaptation processes. However, such mobilisations are often dependent on existing political networks and a legacy of advocacy around poverty alleviation needs, which sideline more transformative agendas around inclusiveness, equity, and resilient urban futures.

Ubezpieczenia indywidualne minimalizujące skutki występowania zagrożeń

INDIVIDUAL INSURANCES MINIMIZING CONSEQUENCES OF NATURAL HAZARDSThe essential role in the internal security system of the Republic of Poland shall be played by compulsory non-life insurances of economic nature. In particular, said insurances shall cover protection of each citizen against the peril of natural disasters.The current legal regulations of the insurance system against natural disasters, in particular with regard to the peril of flood in Poland, display imperfectionsand do not guarantee the adequate level of safety of an individual. Moreover, the system does not raise the citizens’ awareness of the need of securing their immovable properties against unpredictable consequences of the flooding peril and need of proper risk management in the face of advancing climate change and the decreasing protective role of a state. This paper attempts to answer the question, whether introducing asystem of general insurances could compensate the insured and the insurers for the liability for natural disasters risk management, which has been transferred upon them, and which is currently mitigated by asystem of voluntary insurances against the peril of flood. The paper also deals with the problem of the insufficient state aid in the case of emergency situation.

Fishing in acid waters: A vulnerability assessment of the Norwegian fishing industry in the face of increasing ocean acidification.

Ocean acidification (OA) describes a change in the ocean's carbonate chemistry. Whereas its chemical processes are largely understood, the biological and socioeconomic consequences particularly in relation to fisheries are less known. Norway is a major fishing nation worldwide and is potentially affected by OA. To improve the understanding of the socioeconomic consequences of OA, we conducted a risk assessment among the Norwegian counties using a modified version of a risk assessment framework introduced in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's "Special Report: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation," which considers risk to be the sum of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Our results show that about 13 of 19 counties are likely to experience moderate to high risk from OA. We highlight that the success of integrated risk assessments highly depends on the availability of detailed environmental, economic, and societal data. In the case of Norway, modeling data regarding the progress of OA, improved information on potential biological impacts on a larger number of species, and statistical data on social variables are required. We conclude that although still in its infancy, integrated risk assessments are important prerequisites for any form of interdisciplinary research on OA and the development of successful response strategies. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:778-789. ©2016 SETAC.