Adoption Of Inflation Targeting Research Articles

A Review of the Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks adopted by the BRICS countries (2000–2015)

Recent development in the practice of macroeconomic policy has increased the importance of monetary and fiscal policy. Monetary policy within BRICS countries has shifted towards the setting of interest rates as the key monetary instrument, along with the adoption of inflation targets as key monetary policy objectives. It is well accepted that there is no one set of macroeconomic policies that guarantees sustained growth and development in the economy. However, the BRICS countries have been following a similar trend with regard to the exchange rate policy. This is shown by the fact that the BRICS countries have moved away from using a pegged exchange rate regime towards a managed floating exchange rate regime which is in contrast with the recommendations of the Washington Consensus. On the fiscal side, the BRICS countries agreed to spend only what is necessary in order to avoid the ballooning local government debt. Summarily, the BRICS countries have performed well economically and socially although there are still some room for improvement. However, there are still other BRICS members who have government debt that are well above half of their Gross Domestic Product. Alignment of policy regimes would strengthen the macroeconomic base of the BRICS. It is recommended that all BRICS members need prioritise inclusive governance that would checkmate social ills such as poverty, inequality and unemployment, while promoting social inclusion.

A Review of the Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks adopted by the BRICS countries (2000-2015)

Recent development in the practice of macroeconomic policy has increased the importance of monetary and fiscal policy. Monetary policy within BRICS countries has shifted towards the setting of interest rates as the key monetary instrument, along with the adoption of inflation targets as key monetary policy objectives. It is well accepted that there is no one set of macroeconomic policies that guarantees sustained growth and development in the economy. However, the BRICS countries have been following a similar trend with regard to the exchange rate policy. This is shown by the fact that the BRICS countries have moved away from using a pegged exchange rate regime towards a managed floating exchange rate regime which is in contrast with the recommendations of the Washington Consensus. On the fiscal side, the BRICS countries agreed to spend only what is necessary in order to avoid the ballooning local government debt. Summarily, the BRICS countries have performed well economically and socially although there are still some room for improvement. However, there are still other BRICS members who have government debt that are well above half of their Gross Domestic Product. Alignment of policy regimes would strengthen the macroeconomic base of the BRICS. It is recommended that all BRICS members need prioritise inclusive governance that would checkmate social ills such as poverty, inequality and unemployment, while promoting social inclusion.

The evolution of inflation expectations in Canada and the US

AbstractWe model inflation forecasts as monotonically diverging from an estimated long‐run anchor point towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecaster‐level data for Canada and the US, we identify three key differences between the two countries. First, the average estimated anchor of US inflation forecasts has tended to decline gradually over time in rolling samples, from 3.4% for 1989–1998 to 2.2% for 2004–2013. By contrast, it has remained close to 2% since the mid‐1990 for Canadian forecasts. Second, the variance of estimates of the long‐run anchor is considerably lower for the panel of Canadian forecasters than US ones following Canada's adoption of inflation targets. And third, forecasters in Canada look much more alike than those in the US in terms of the weight that they place on the anchor. One explanation for these results is that an explicit inflation‐targeting regime (Canada) provides for less uncertainty about future monetary policy actions than a monetary policy regime where there was no explicit numerical inflation target (the US before 2012) to anchor expectations.

Missing money found causing Australia's inflation

This paper examines the nexus between excess currency growth and inflation in Australia. It first canvasses the operation of monetary policy. Using different econometric techniques, it next examines how well excess money supply growth, measured in terms of currency and M3, explains Australia's inflation over the long term from 1970–2015, and then more specifically before and after the adoption of inflation targeting. Its key result is that excess money growth has been the main determinant of Australia's inflation, although became less important during the inflation targeting era. This implies the velocity of currency, the sine qua non of the Quantity Theory of Money, has been remarkably stable. Given the role excess currency plays in generating Australian inflation, it should be afforded greater prominence in monetary policy deliberations.

Inflation targeting and inflation persistence: New evidence from fractional integration and cointegration

We investigate the dynamics of inflation persistence for a sample of advanced (Canada, Sweden, and the United Kingdom) and newly industrialized and emerging market (Chile, Israel, and Mexico) economies that adopted inflation targeting (IT) prior to the year 2000. We employ fractional integration and cointegration techniques and provide empirical evidence on two yet unanswered questions. First, we investigate whether each of these six countries shares a common persistence with two non-IT countries, Germany, the largest economy of the Euro Area, and the United States, the world’s largest economy, that arguably represent the main core of the global economy. Second, we examine whether the inflation in each of the six IT countries and Germany and the United States are driven by a common stochastic trend. The evidence on these issues is mixed. We find that the inflationary processes in Germany, the United States, and the three advanced economies are fractionally integrated, stationary, mean reverting, and share a common inflation persistence. On the other hand, the inflationary processes in the three emerging market economies are fractionally integrated, mean reverting, non-stationary, and do not share a common persistence with Germany and the United States. We also find that in the post-IT period Sweden is fractionally cointegrated at the global level, i.e., with both Germany and the United States, whereas Canada is fractionally cointegrated at the regional level, i.e., only with the United States. Mixed evidence on the effects of the global financial crisis and its aftermath is also reported.

The open economy trilemma in Latin America: A three‐decade analysis

AbstractThis study concerns the open economy trilemma in emerging economies, and uses a panel data framework to investigate cross‐dependence among the countries and respective parameters of the 23 countries in Latin America from 1980 to 2010. We examine the impact that trilemma choices impose on economic performance (output volatility and inflation), as well as whether the adoption of inflation targeting influences the results. The findings indicate that promoting exchange rate stability and financial openness are efficient strategies for improving the economic performance of Latin America economies. Furthermore, the adoption of inflation targeting enhances the effects of financial openness on output volatility.

MENINJAU KEMBALI SEBERAPA PENTING TARGET INFLASI BANK INDONESIA DALAM MENGONTROL LAJU INFLASI

Inflation is a crucial issue for a development country such as Indonesia. To solve the problem of inflation, Bank Indonesia as the monetary policy actors trying to adopt inflation targeting system. Every year Bank Indonesia announced its inflation target with the goal of keeping actual inflation will also lead there. However, the results obtained are less appropriate expectations for Bank Indonesia's inflation target is often off the mark. It is interesting to discuss the actual extent of the inflation target can affect the rate of inflation. Many disagreements related to it. This study wanted to reveal how the influence of the inflation target to actual inflation rate, especially in Indonesia. The method used is multiple linear regression. In addition to the inflation target, there are other variables to be studied its effect on the rate of actual inflation, ie inflation earlier period, inflation expectations and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The results showed that previous periods of inflation, inflation expectations and GDP significantly influence the rate of inflation. In contrast, Bank Indonesia's inflation target does not significantly influence the rate of inflation in Indonesia. This can happen due to the lack of credibility of Bank Indonesia in front of Indonesian, especially in the application of inflation targeting.

Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rate in Emerging Countries

This study empirically investigates the effects of monetary policy shocks on the exchange rate in six emerging countries (Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia). VAR models are used, wherein sign restrictions on impulse responses are imposed to identify monetary policy shocks. The empirical model reflects the small open emerging economy features. The estimation period is the recent period in which these countries adopted inflation targeting and more flexible exchange rate regimes based on the experience of advanced countries. The main findings are as follows. First, various puzzles such as the “exchange rate puzzle,” “delayed overshooting puzzle,” and “forward discount bias puzzle” are frequently found in these countries. Second, more severe puzzles are found in these emerging countries than in small open advanced countries.

Is inflation targeting credible in Asia? A panel GARCH approach

We examine the relationship between inflation targeting and the behavior of the level and volatility of inflation for eight Asian countries over the period 1987–2013. In contrast to existing studies that rely upon time series methods, we employ a novel panel GARCH model that accounts for heterogeneity and interdependence across countries. Our main contribution is to shed new light on the inflation targeting credibility hypothesis based on lower inflation and inflation volatility as well as on the correlation between unanticipated inflation shocks within a panel GARCH framework. We find strong evidence of a reduction in the level of inflation that operates from the impact of actual inflation targets in the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand. We also find that the adoption of inflation targeting helped lower inflation volatility in the Philippines and South Korea. Overall, the results suggest that Asian inflation targeting regimes are more credible in terms of reducing the level of inflation than lowering inflation volatility. There is also evidence that the covariance of inflation shocks among inflation targeting and non-targeting countries tends to increase.

Inflation Targeting and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria: Implications for Monetary Policy

The study examined inflation targeting –economic growth nexus in Nigeria, with the aim of imbibing the useful lessons and avoiding the pitfalls from cross-country experiences. The study employed descriptive approach to the study with data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin of various issues. Previous study was also consulted to enrich the work. The most salient observations from the study include first: all the countries that adopted inflation targeting recorded a reduced inflation figure and improved economic growth after adopting inflation targeting than before the adoption. Second, Nigeria is absent from the list of countries that have adopted inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework, while South Africa and Ghana are the only countries in Africa that have adopted inflation targeting. Based on the observations some recommendations were made, mostly the need for the monetary authorities in Nigeria to adopt and implement fully the framework considering the harmful and suicidal effect of inflation on economic growth and investment on the economy.

Settling the Inflation Targeting Debate: Lights from a Meta-Regression Analysis

Inflation targeting (IT) has gained much traction over the past two decades, becoming a framework of reference for the conduct of monetary policy. However, the debate about its very merits and macroeconomic consequences remains inconclusive. This paper digs deeper into the issue through a meta-regression analysis (MRA) of the existing literature, making it the first application of a MRA to the macroeconomic effects of IT adoption. Building on 8,059 estimated coefficients from a very broad sample of 113 studies, the paper finds that the empirical literature suffers from two types of publication bias. First, authors, editors and reviewers prefer results featuring beneficial effects of IT adoption on inflation volatility, real GDP growth and fiscal performances; second, they promote results with estimated coefficients that are significantly different from zero. However, after filtering out the publication biases, we still find meaningful (genuine) effects of IT in reducing inflation and real GDP growth volatility, but no significant genuine effects on inflation volatility and the level of real GDP growth. Interestingly, the results indicate that the impact of IT varies systematically across studies, depending on the sample structure and composition, the time coverage, the estimation techniques, country-specific factors, IT implementation parameters, and publication characteristics.

Settling the Inflation Targeting Debate: Lights from a Meta-Regression Analysis

Inflation targeting (IT) has gained much traction over the past two decades, becoming a framework of reference for the conduct of monetary policy. However, the debate about its very merits and macroeconomic consequences remains inconclusive. This paper digs deeper into the issue through a meta-regression analysis (MRA) of the existing literature, making it the first application of a MRA to the macroeconomic effects of IT adoption. Building on 8,059 estimated coefficients from a very broad sample of 113 studies, the paper finds that the empirical literature suffers from two types of publication bias. First, authors, editors and reviewers prefer results featuring beneficial effects of IT adoption on inflation volatility, real GDP growth and fiscal performances; second, they promote results with estimated coefficients that are significantly different from zero. However, after filtering out the publication biases, we still find meaningful (genuine) effects of IT in reducing inflation and real GDP growth volatility, but no significant genuine effects on inflation volatility and the level of real GDP growth. Interestingly, the results indicate that the impact of IT varies systematically across studies, depending on the sample structure and composition, the time coverage, the estimation techniques, country-specific factors, IT implementation parameters, and publication characteristics.

The Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Countries

This paper investigates the relationship between exchange rate and inflation targeting regime in six emerging economies which have adopted inflation targeting (IT) regime during the period of 1993M1-2013M7. In this study, we seek to examine how the adoption of inflation targeting influenced exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) and volatility. The empirical evidences suggest that ERPT has declined after IT adoption for both price indexes (consumer and producer prices) for most economies analyzed. Furthermore, our results show that IT regime can reduce exchange rate volatility and inflation volatility in all countries. Thus, the implementation of inflation targeting regime contributes to price stability through the decline of exchange rate pass-through and exchange rate volatility.

Asymmetry in Inflation Targeting

Following the world financial crisis beginning in the last quarter of 2008, aggregate demand and commodity prices have declined sharply leading to a fast decline in world inflation. This different and new period reflects the rise in risk appetite leading to high fluctuations in the short term capital flows. World central banks revised their monetary policy to the changing conditions taking into account financial stability. In 2002, Turkish central bank adopted inflation targeting (in the implicit form) to maintain price stability. After 2008, following the developments in global markets, Turkish economy reflects similar characteristics in the form of decline in inflation rates. Together with the changes in the economic conditions, estimating monetary policy models in the form of constant-coefficient and symmetric specification may lead to erroneous interpretations. This study analyze the existence of structural break(s) and asymmetric behavior for the 2003-2016 period. The paper also examines the monetary policy model under New Keynesian fashion. Turkish monetary policy investigated for the period presents October 2009 as the break point under different models and structural break tests. Asymmetric reactions to interest rate, output and exchange rate are observed suggesting the different monetary preferences of the central bank of Turkey.

Inflation Persistence Before and After Inflation Targeting: A Fractional Integration Approach

We investigate the persistence in the inflation series for 13 OECD countries that explicitly adopted an inflation targeting (IT) regime before 1992. Mean reversion and stationarity as well as mean reversion and non-stationarity exist in the pre-IT period, while mean reversion and stationarity characterize the post-IT period. Inflation exhibits fractional integration behavior over the entire sample period, the pre-IT period, and, in most cases, also in the post-IT period. The adoption of IT coincides with a structural break in all inflation series and marks a decrease in the point estimates of inflation persistence in most countries.

Inflation targeting and the cyclicality of monetary policy

We assess whether the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) frameworks has facilitated countercyclical monetary policies in a sample of 90 industrial and developing economies, 22 of which have adopted IT. Using propensity score matching methods, we show that the average treatment effect of IT has a statistically significant and quantitatively quite large effect in facilitating a more countercyclical monetary policy in IT adopting countries.

How credible is inflation targeting in Asia? A quantile unit root perspective

This article examines the dynamic behavior of the inflation rate for eight Asian countries using a quantile unit root test. We advocate a three-way definition of inflation targeting based on perfect, imperfect and zero credibility and advance the analysis by incorporating a fully-fledged adoption of inflation targeting. In doing so, we offer new insights by showing that the credibility of inflation targeting and the alternative monetary policy frameworks in Asia are imperfect, except for Malaysia and South Korea under a fully-fledged adoption of inflation targeting. In contrast to past studies that focus on the mean-reversion in inflation rates, we also consider trend-reversion and find that Asian inflation targeting countries have been building up their monetary policy credibility more than the non- inflation targeting countries in terms of a faster rate of decline in inflation rate changes. Our results generally indicate the presence of mean reversion at the lower quantiles only. Where stationarity is present, we find evidence of a varied speed of adjustment process across the quantiles. Finally, we determine the threshold levels whereby inflation becomes stationary and demonstrate that Asian inflation rates generally display stationary behavior during periods of inflation declining or slowing down.

Sovereign debt risk in emerging market economies: Does inflation targeting adoption make any difference?

Based on a sample of 38 emerging economies, we find that inflation targeting (IT) adoption improves sovereign debt risk. Next, we show that this favorable effect is sensitive to several structural characteristics, and to the considered time span. Finally, the measure of sovereign risk (sovereign debt ratings or government bond yield spreads) and the IT form (full-fledged or partial) equally influence the effect of IT adoption on sovereign debt risk. Thus, our paper provides valuable insights regarding IT implementation as a device for improving emerging market economies' access to international financial markets.

Effect of credibility and reputation on discretionary fiscal policy: empirical evidence from Colombia

This paper relates to the literature on the possible effect of inflation targeting on fiscal discipline in developing countries. In particular, we present empirical evidence to address this issue based on the Colombian experience. This study relies on two main issues. The first is to verify whether the adoption of inflation targeting in Colombia affected the discretionary fiscal component in the period 2004–2014. The second issue is to analyze whether the monetary credibility amplified the effect of the monetary policy on changes in the discretionary fiscal component. The results denote that inflation targeting causes an impact on fiscal policy in Colombia. In particular, the greater monetary credibility the less change in discretionary fiscal component is observed.

Forecasting structural change and fat-tailed events in Australian macroeconomic variables

The 2007/08 Global Financial Crisis has re-stimulated interest in modeling structural changes and fat tail events. In this paper, we investigate whether incorporating time variation and fat-tails into a suit of popular univariate and multivariate Gaussian distributed models can improve the forecast performance of key Australian macroeconomic variables: real GDP growth, CPI inflation and a short-term interest rate. The forecast period is from 1992Q1 to 2014Q4, thus replicating the central banks forecasting responsibilities since adopting inflation targeting. We show that time varying parameters and stochastic volatility with Student's-t error distribution are important modeling features of the data. More specifically, a vector autoregression with the proposed features provides the best interest and inflation forecasts over the entire sample. Remarkably, the full sample results show that a simple rolling window autoregressive model with Student's-t errors provides the most accurate GDP forecasts.