Wage Adjustment Research Articles

Impacts of international trade on the SMT view of the economy

AbstractShiozawa, Morioka and Taniguchi (2019)’s Microfoundations for Evolutionary Economics (Springer Japan) provided an alternative view (SMT view) of the economy to the orthodox equilibrium view of the economy. According to the SMT view, demand and supply are matched by quantity adjustment under fixed prices, and prices function as a transmitter of cost information downstream as well as a guide for choice and development of techniques. This paper examines the impacts of international trade on the SMT view based on the new theory of international values (NTIV). In a closed economy, prices are uniquely determined even if there are many choices of techniques by the minimal price theorem. With international trade, due to the multiplicity of wages, prices are not uniquely determined. Whether this fact allows demand to participate in the determination of prices is examined, and it is clarified that because of the disparity of real production possibility set from the hypothetical one, which is effective in determining prices, demand loses the power of equilibration. This fact opens up the possibility and even necessity of production taking place below the maximal boundary, which is accompanied by unemployment. Individual firms’ behavior in the choice and development of techniques and the process of price conversion that are consistent with the SMT view and the NTIV is formulated. A residual unsolved question of wage adjustment following technological changes is identified.

The Impact of Minimum Wage System on Low-Income Groups

The minimum wage system sets a legal floor on the income of workers. It provides economic security for low-wage workers and ensures that their basic needs are met, thereby reducing poverty. For low-income workers, increasing the minimum wage directly enhances their earnings, living standards, and financial stability. As a research focus, the primary area of examination would be the precise effect of minimum wage adjustments on the income levels of those in low-paying jobs: analyze the changes in the real income of low-income workers after the augement of minimum salary and the improvement influence of family economic conditions. Second one is exploring the impact on this system changes employment sector: Examine whether raising the minimum wage causes employers that reduce hiring or layoffs, and the potential impact of such changes on low-skilled labor markets. The last one is analyzing the impacts of minimum wage policies of psychological and low-income groups’ social wellbeing: Using questionnaires to understand changes in the perception of low-income workers about their job satisfaction, quality of life, and social status. The rise in this system significantly rose the income level of low-income workers, helped to alleviate poverty, and raised the basic standard of living of these families. In the short term, that increase may have a certain negative impact on some labor-intensive industries, in the form of a small number of job losses; But over the longer term, the job market stabilizes as companies adapt to increased costs and improve efficiency through technological innovation.

Mexico's Minimum Wage Data: Trends, Policies, and a Research Agenda

The decline of the real value of the minimum wage amid trade liberalization in Mexico has raised concerns about its policy effectiveness and unintended consequences. The literature has examined the impact of minimum wage adjustments on employment levels, worker earnings, poverty, and inequality. However, findings from different sample periods and regions still need to be reconciled. It is necessary to understand the mechanisms connecting minimum wage to other market components. This research note first explores Mexico’s minimum wage data from 1980 to 2023 to grasp its spatial and temporal trends. We then discuss several future research directions to explore mechanisms through which minimum wage potentially works, including the welfare effect of the policy, the informal sector, and interactions between different policy tools.

Automation, Bargaining Power, and Labor Market Fluctuations

We argue that the threat of automation weakens workers’ bargaining power in wage negotiations, dampening wage adjustments and amplifying unemployment fluctuations. We make this argument based on a business cycle model with labor market search frictions, generalized to incorporate automation decisions. In the model, procyclical automation threats create endogenous real wage rigidity that amplifies labor market fluctuations. The automation mechanism is consistent with empirical evidence. It is also quantitatively important for explaining the large volatilities of unemployment and vacancies relative to that of real wages, a puzzling observation through the lens of standard business cycle models. (JEL E13, E24, E32, J31, J63, J64)

Job computerization, occupational employment and wages: A comparative study of the United States, Germany, and Japan

This study adds to the growing literature on wage and employment responses to the risk of job computerization. Specifically, it revisits the original occupational perspective and inquires into the nature of the adjustments of occupational wages and employment, i.e., the potential benefits and costs associated with professional careers in such occupations. The investigation further aims at identifying whether these adjustment processes are universal — as suggested by the global availability of the respective technology — or reflect country-specific peculiarities. To this end, it conducts a comparative analysis with data from the United States, Germany, and Japan, three G7 lead countries which share the commitment to fostering technological progress, but which are also characterized by distinctly different labor market institutions and approaches to industrial policies. Generally consistent with the country-specific employment institutions and common corporate strategies, transmission channels — as reflected by the relationship between adjustments of occupational employment and wages — differ between countries. In all three countries, though, higher risks of computerization are associated with relative wage losses in occupations which require low levels of formal education or training.

Inflation and minimum wage adjustments

No abstract available. ECA Estudios Centroamericanos, Vol. 43, No. 476, 1988: 539-543.

Optimal unemployment insurance in a THANK model

We characterize optimal unemployment insurance (UI) in a heterogeneous-agent model with unemployment risk and sticky prices. In the long run, the optimal reform calls for a lower replacement rate that raises vacancies and lowers unemployment. In the short run, the optimal reform raises the replacement rate initially to smooth real wage adjustments along the transition and attenuate short-run welfare losses. Once at its optimal level, the replacement rate should vary counter-cyclically in response to demand shocks. Productivity shocks generate quasi-efficient fluctuations and call for a quasi-constant replacement rate. The aggregate welfare gains from an optimal reform are large, around 1% of equivalent consumption. The aggregate welfare gains from an optimal UI policy over the business cycle are smaller, around 0.2%, and essentially vanish with flexible prices because the aggregate demand stabilization motive is muted.

Research on the Effect of Minimum Wage on the Bargaining Power of Chinese Manufacturing

Based on the data of China's industrial enterprise database from 2003 to 2013 and the national minimum wage data at county (city) level, this paper investigates the impact of minimum wage policy on China's manufacturing bargaining power. The results show that (1) the increase of minimum wage will reduce the price markup of Chinese manufacturers and weaken the bargaining power of Chinese manufacturers. (2) Compared with the minimum wage adjustment in the lag period, the cost impact of the minimum wage in the current period is more intense in weakening the bargaining power of the manufacturing industry.

Does Minimum Wage Reduces Gender Inequality in Indonesia?

Gender inequality is a persistent challenge in many societies, reflecting disparities in access to resources, opportunities, and decision-making power between men and women. One policy area that has garnered significant attention in the quest for gender equality is the minimum wage. By setting a wage floor for all workers, minimum wage policies aim to enhance the economic well-being of low-income individuals, a group in which women are often overrepresented. However, the relationship between minimum wage policies and gender inequality is complex, and its impact remains a subject of extensive debate and research. This research investigates the impact of annual minimum wage policy changes in Indonesia on gender inequality using a dynamic panel data approach encompassing 34 provinces over eight years (2015-2022). Contrary to expectations, the results suggest that both in the short and long run, minimum wage policy increases gender inequality. This highlights the complexity of the relationship between minimum wage adjustments and gender dynamics, underscoring the need for nuanced policy design to ensure gender equality in labor market outcomes.

James Tobin on macroeconomic instability: an old Keynesian changes ground

From 1975 onwards, the American Keynesian monetary economist James Tobin changed his interpretation of the Keynesian case that active stabilisation policy is sometimes needed to restore full employment, offering a new interpretation that drew on Keynes’s General Theory (Chapter 19) and on Irving Fisher’s 1933 debt-deflation theory of depressions to argue that wage and price flexibility could be destabilizing. Tobin’s very first journal article in 1941 attributed the existence of involuntary unemployment in a Keynesian economy to money wage rigidity and money illusion, as he also did in 1947. From 1975 onwards, Tobin responded to New Classical critiques of Keynesianism by absolving Keynes from assumptions of irrational money illusion or unexplained wage rigidity, arguing instead that Keynes assumed a given money wage in the first eighteen chapters of his General Theory for simplicity of exposition and as a policy recommendation. Like Hyman Minsky and Peter Howitt, Tobin stressed the previously underappreciated Chapter 19 of The General Theory, where Keynes argued that faster adjustment of prices and money wages could be destabilising. The basis of Keynesian macroeconomics was coordination failure and instability, not irrational money illusion or an arbitrary assumption of a fixed money wage. The most important aspect of this discussion of debt-deflation and of macroeconomic instability and coordination failure came through the attention to Keynes’s Chapter 19, Fisher, Minsky, and Tobin in Ben Bernanke’s dissertation on the breakdown of financial intermediation in the US culminating in the 1933 Bank Holiday and in Mervyn King’s 1994 European Economic Association presidential address on debt-deflation. This intellectual preparation shaped the response of Bernanke and King to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, when they placed absolute priority on preventing a debt-deflation spiral that would take the economy out of its corridor of stability. Presented to the Nice workshop on “Coordination Issues in Historical Perspective,” September 9, 2022. We are grateful for helpful comments from Peter Howitt, Goulven Rubin and other participants there and at a workshop in memory of Jerome de Boyer des Roches at the University of Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne in June 2022 and from two anonymous referees.

Potential Consequences of a Change in Money Wage Under Keynesian Macroeconomics Theory

This research paper has delved into wage dynamics and economic health. The author has chosen to juxtapose the Keynesian macroeconomics theory with that of the classical, aiming to critically examine the contrasting viewpoints of classical and Keynesian economic theories. The core of the analysis hinges on the Keynesian framework introduced by John Maynard Keynes, particularly with its stance on the implications of changes in nominal wage on the broader economy. Historical instances witnessing substantial wage fluctuations serve as real-world examples to substantiate the theoretical discussions, intending to uncover the causal factors and subsequent economic responses to these wage changes. To further bolster the inquiry, the study employs macroeconomic mathematical modelling to furnish quantitative insights that elucidate Keynesian assumptions on the labour market and its implications. By concentrating on the macroeconomic repercussions of nominal wage changes, as opposed to microeconomic consequences, this paper sheds light on the broader implications of wage adjustments in an economy, underpinned mainly by Keynesian perspectives.

Nominal Wage Adjustments during High Inflation and Tight Labor Markets

Nominal Wage Adjustments during High Inflation and Tight Labor Markets

Regulating Algorithmic Management at Work in the European Union: Data Protection, Non-discrimination and Collective Rights

In recent years, algorithmic management practices have been widely adopted by employers to monitor remote work, analyse how applicants behave during job interviews, rate worker performance and calculate wage adjustments. As a result, the condition of workers being subjected to the upstream authority of managers has intensified. Employment protection legislation recognizes the importance of curbing the employer’s unilateral discretionary power by deploying several controlling factors. However, the traditional guardrails have now been displaced by the transformative impact of data-driven technologies. As a response to this challenge, several measures implemented by the European Union (EU) could be pragmatically adapted to curtail the expansion of artificial intelligence-based management prerogative. By applying a multidimensional, anticipatory and participatory approach, this paper integrates substantive and procedural rules that contribute to rebalancing informational asymmetries within workplaces and assesses the effectiveness of these rules. Examining case law, administrative decisions and legislative developments, it also discusses the mutually reinforcing relationship between data protection and anti-discrimination measures, which renders automated decisions documentable and contestable. In addition to defensive tactics, this article calls for the involvement of worker representatives in co-designing digital human resource policies. As data are relational, collective bodies are uniquely placed to exchange information, raise awareness and bring claims, with a view to preventing the improper use of algorithms. Employer Powers, Data Protection, Non-Discrimination, Co-Determination, Artificial Intelligence, Management by Algorithm, Right to Explanation, Burden of Proof, EU Law, Digital Transformation

Public sector employment rigidity and macroeconomic fluctuation: A DSGE simulation for China.

Public sector employment in China has exhibited pronounced non-cyclical characteristics, with a recruiting scale and wage level showing limited responsiveness to economic fluctuations. The allure of civil service jobs in China has seen a significant resurgence post-COVID-19, with an observable increase in demand among educated job seekers for stable government positions amid growing economic uncertainties. This study investigates the implications of public sector employment rigidity on macroeconomic stability using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model integrated with search and matching (S&M) theory. Simulations incorporating alternative government job policies reveal that non-cyclical public employment exacerbates macroeconomic cyclical fluctuations. The low elasticity of public sector wages with respect to corporate wages fosters stable expectations among workers regarding the future value of government jobs, increasing the perceived value of the current state of unemployment. This leads job seekers to voluntarily remain unemployed, reducing labor supply to firms. Meantime, it preserves workers' bargaining power with firms, reinforcing wage stickiness and undermining the stabilizing role of price adjustments in employment. Hypothetical scenario analyses indicate that adopting a pro-cyclical wage policy for the public sector can mitigate the obstacles of wage cuts for firms, stimulate the creation of new jobs during economic downturns, and consequently reduce the magnitude and duration of rising unemployment rates. In contrast, maintaining a non-cyclical public sector wage may not prevent a continuous rise in unemployment or a worsening economic situation, even with expanded sector recruitment. This finding holds significant relevance in the context of the post-COVID era characterized by an economic slump and employment tension, providing theoretical support for establishing a transparent and flexible wage adjustment mechanism in the public sector that is linked to market conditions.

Toward a general neoclassical theory of economic growth

The Harrod-Domar (H-D) growth model assumes a fixed capital-output ratio, signifying absence of substitutability between capital and labor, leading to a “knife-edge” problem wherein balanced growth of capital (fixed warranted rate) and labor (fixed natural rate) occurs only by accident, preventing the attainment of macroeconomic stability with full employment. The neoclassical Solow-Swan (S-S) growth model provides an elegant solution to the H-D problem by endogenizing the warranted rate via the saving-investment relation, wherein capital growth is a function of a fully adjusting income-capital ratio (inverse of the H-D capital-output ratio)— allowing for smooth substitutability between capital and labor while keeping the natural rate exogenously fixed. The S-S model implies a positive, albeit temporary output growth effect of a higher saving rate. The present paper extends the capital-labor ratio’s influence onto the natural rate via effects on labor productivity through a modified Arrow learning by doing framework, and via labor participation through real wage adjustments. Thus, the positive output growth of a higher saving rate, although temporary in the short run as in the S-S model, is permanent in the long run through adjustments in both the warranted and natural rates—a generalization of the Solow-Swan model.

Impact of social insurance law on total factor productivity: evidence from Chinese micro and small businesses

ABSTRACTOur study investigates the impact of China’s 2011 Social Insurance (SI) Law on the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of micro and small businesses (MSBs). Using the difference-in-differences (DiD) model, we found that the SI Law’s implementation resulted in a significant decline in TFP levels within MSBs owing to increased social security contributions. Mechanism analysis indicates that the incremental costs cannot be shifted onto employees through wage adjustments or workforce reduction and curb firms’ capital investments, subsequently affecting capital intensity and overall business productivity. Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis underscores that the SI Law’s effects on TFP are most pronounced in MSBs within the manufacturing sector, characterized by financial constraints, or situated in provinces with high enforcement intensity and greater factor market distortions. Further analysis reveals that the SI Law reduces labour productivity levels among MSBs, with the majority of the impact directly stemming directly from the SI Law, while the remaining effect is mediated through capital-labour intensity and TFP, respectively. Our study contributes to the existing literature by offering new insights from MSBs in an emerging market context, and the findings offer significant policy implications.

The Impact of the Local Green Economy of Ghana: A General Equilibrium Analysis

The Ghanaian forestry sector has experienced a paradigm shift toward resilient and sustainable forest management practices through climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. Ghana has acknowledged the urgent need to address these issues via comprehensive policy measures as a nation that is vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. To assess economy-wide impacts, this paper employs a computable general equilibrium with a static specific factor model that can be readily simulated with various vectors of price changes. The model uses a competitive production structure that assumes constant returns, full employment, competitive pricing, and perfect labor mobility across sectors. Factor shares, industry shares, and substitution matrices from 2022 Labor Force Report’s data were constructed for four skilled groups (managers, professionals, service, and production) across industry, service, the rest of agriculture, and forestry sectors. Predictions of price increases from climate change mitigation policies compliance were simulated for the long run and short run. Forestry, agricultural, and industrial sectors will enjoy higher prices under a green economy, but these would not translate into higher wages. It is rather capital owners in agriculture and forestry that would benefit. Wage adjustments to the green economy are smaller than what might be expected in a partial equilibrium model.

The effect of bank recapitalization policy on credit allocation, investment, and productivity: Evidence from a banking crisis in Japan

This paper examines the ramifications of government capital injections into financially distressed banks during the 1997 Japanese banking crisis. Using a dataset merging firm-level financial statements and bank balance sheets, we explore whether the capital injections primarily benefited high-productivity firms or were misallocated to struggling “zombie” firms. The results suggest that post-injection banks increased lending to high-productivity non-zombie and low-productivity zombie firms. The former aligns with conventional theories prioritizing high-productivity firms for investment and productivity enhancement; the latter suggests credit misallocation toward struggling firms mainly for debt servicing. There is no evidence that these injections promoted investments among firms. The results indicate that zombie firms reduced investments, particularly in infrastructure. High-productivity non-zombie firms did not exhibit a significant investment boost despite receiving more loans but displayed positive labor and total factor productivity growth, potentially driven by sales growth and increased advertisement expenses rather than employment and wage adjustments.

The more intra-firm equity, the higher employee retention: Evidence from the universo of urban firms in Colombia

Fairness and equity considerations may influence workers’ decision to stay or quit their jobs. This paper tests several hypotheses derived from theory on the relation between intra-firm equity and employee retention. It uses administrative data covering the universe of urban firms in Colombia between 2008 and 2016. The average wage of the firm, the intra-firm dispersion of real wage adjustments, and the share of women in the firm are significantly associated with retention rates in the directions predicted by theory. The intra-firm wage gap is directly associated with retention, at odds with theory. The results suggest that equity considerations are important in employees’ decision to stay or quit.

The historical role of energy in UK inflation and productivity with implications for price inflation

We model UK price and wage inflation, productivity and unemployment over a century and a half of data, selecting dynamics, relevant variables, non-linearities and location and trend shifts using indicator saturation estimation. The four congruent econometric equations highlight complex interacting empirical relations. The production function reveals a major role for energy inputs additional to capital and labour, and although the price inflation equation shows a small direct impact of energy prices, the substantial rise in oil and gas prices seen by mid-2022 contribute half of the increase in price inflation. We find empirical evidence for non-linear adjustments of real wages to inflation: a wage-price spiral kicks in when inflation exceeds about 6%–8% p.a. We also find an additional non-linear reaction to unemployment, consistent with involuntary unemployment. A reduction in energy availability simultaneously reduces output and exacerbates inflation.