Adequacy Evaluation Research Articles

Adequacy evaluation of smoothed particle hydrodynamics methods for simulating the external-flooding scenario

In modern nuclear risk analysis for external-flooding scenarios, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools are used to simulate the generation, propagation, and interactions of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) with the nuclear Systems, Structures, and Components (SSCs). Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH), as a Lagrangian and mesh-free method, is one of the particle-based CFD methods. Since SPH methods can effectively handling large-scale fluid simulations with complex interfacial structures, SPH-based software has been used to simulate the impacts of external flood onto nuclear facilities, and the simulation results have been used to support nuclear safety analysis. However, previous risk analysis assumes that SPH methods and the corresponding simulation packages are applicable to the external-hazards risk analysis, and their simulation uncertainties do not affect the confidence of safety decision. Considering the high consequences to nuclear safety induced by simulation errors, a systematic and complete validation process is needed to evaluate the adequacy of SPH simulations in informing related safety decisions.In this study, a scoping-stage assessment is performed for SPH’s adequacy in simulating the real-scale external flooding scenarios, especially in predicting the surface-wave impacts on SSCs at NPP sites. To ensure the completeness and consistency, validation frameworks, Code Scalability Applicability and Uncertainty (CSAU), and its regulatory guide, Evaluation Model Development and Assessment Process (EMDAP) are followed to guide validation activities and to make final code adequacy assessment. First, an external-flooding scenario is designed, and SPH simulations are performed with an SPH-based software named Neutrino. A Phenomenon Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) is created, and the surface-wave impacts are identified as one of the high-rank phenomena. At the same time, a performance measurement standard is created for measuring the code adequacy in informing safety decisions consistently and transparently. Next, numerical benchmarks are designed for assessing the code adequacy of SPH methods and corresponding software implementations on Neutrino. Next, code accuracy is evaluated by comparing simulation results from Neutrino against experimental measurements in each benchmark. Meanwhile, a scaling analysis is performed to determine a group of dimensionless number for characterizing important physics and to assess the applicability of validation database collected in reduced-scale facility to the prototypic scenario. Finally, results from all activities are brought together to make an adequacy decision. It is found that, based on the current evidence, SPH methods and associated Neutrino software can predict the unbroken surface-wave peak pressure onto stationary rigid with reasonable accuracy if the suggested sizes of particles are used. However, it is suggested by independent reviews that the validity of major assumptions in target applications need to be evaluated with large-scale experiments, and the relevancy of other phenomena like turbulence and air pockets need to be identified with more benchmarks. As for the SPH’s adequacy in predicting the impact forces on dynamic rigid, the available evidence is not sufficient to support the decisions.

Impact of diuresis and number of exchanges on Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis related peritonitis risk in RDPLF registry.

Introduction
 Peritonitis is still a frequent complication among patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis (PD) and it’s associated with a significant morbimortality. The aim of our study was to investigate the impact of diuresis volume and number of exchanges (NE) on continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) related peritonitis risk.
 Methods
 This study was performed with data from the French peritoneal dialysis registry (RDPLF). We included every incident patient in the registry from January 2010 to November 2019 who had at least an adequacy evaluation. Peritonitis risk was assessed firstly by estimating a peritonitis rate per year undergoing PD and secondly by focusing on time to first peritonitis, taking into account competing risks (kidney transplantation, switch to hemodialysis, PD withdrawal whatever the cause or death). Patients whose diuresis was <500mL/24 hours were considered oliguric.
 Results
 We included 620 patients in our analysis. The mean age was 72,9 (standard deviation (SD)=15,1). Two hundred and six (39,55%) had at least one peritonitis episode. No difference was observed between oliguric patients and the others. However, we noticed an increased risk in patients with a NE≥22 per week (HR=1,55, P=0,0005 and HR=1,47, P=0,02 considering competing risks). We also observed a lower risk in diabetic patients HR=0,74, p=0,02 and HR=0,77, p=0,0497).
 Conclusion
 We didn’t find any impact of diuresis volume on peritonitis risk. Whereas, the NE seems to be a considerable risk factor, especially when it’s superior to 22 per week.

P1144ODORIBACTER AND ANAEROTRUNCUS: GUT MICROBIOME SIGNATURE MIGHT BE RELATED TO COGNITIVE IMPAIRMENT IN PATIENTS ON PERITONEAL DIALYSIS

Abstract Background and Aims Cognitive impairment is very common in dialysis patients, with negative effects on quality of life and mortality. In neurodegenerative conditions (Alzheimer, Parkinson) a gut-brain axis has been identified; however, there is no information about the relationship of gut microbiota alterations and presence of cognitive impairment in chronic kidney disease. The aim was to associate the gut microbiota profile with the cognitive function in patients on automated peritoneal dialysis (APD). Method Cross-sectional study in 39 APD patients; those with visual or mental disabilities, psychiatric or neurodegenerative diseases, inflammatory causes of ESRD, with active infections (including peritonitis), on anti-inflammatory drugs or antibiotics, were excluded. All patients had a clinical, biochemical, nutritional and dialysis adequacy evaluation, and were classified according to the presence of cognitive impairment using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) test. Fecal samples were collected and immediately stored at -80 ºC. DNA extraction was performed with Quick-DNA Fecal/Soil Microbe Miniprep Kit (Zymo Research). Subsequently, V3 and V4 regions of 16S rRNA were sequenced using illumina platform. Statistical analysis: Student t test and χ2 were used to compare quantitative and qualitative variables, respectively. Quantitative Insights Into Microbial Ecology (QIIME) pipeline and Linear Discriminant Analysis Effect Size (LEfSe) were employed for bioinformatic analysis. Results Eighty-two percent of subjects were male, mean age 47 ± 24 years, and dialysis vintage 11 (7-48) months. Sixty-four percent of patients had cognitive impairment. Patients with cognitive impairment were significantly older (53 ± 16 vs 38 ± 14, p=0.006), had higher frequency of diabetes mellitus (56% vs 21%, p=0.04), and had lower creatinine concentrations (11.3 ± 3.7 vs 14.9 ± 5.4, p=0.02) compared to patients with normal cognitive function. No differences were found in other biochemical, nutritional or dialysis adequacy variables. A total of 38,083 sequences per patient were obtained after the microbiome analysis. LEfSe analysis showed a preponderance of S24_7, Rikenellaceae, Odoribacteraceae, Odoribacter, and Anaerotruncus in patients with cognitive impairment. In contrast, patients without cognitive impairment were characterized by Dorea, Ruminococcus, Sutterella and Fusobacteria (LDA score (Log10) > 2.5; p < 0.05). Conclusion Cognitive impairment was present in two-thirds of these APD patients. Odoribacter and Anaerotruncus were significantly more abundant in patients with cognitive impairment than in those with normal function. Such gut bacteria might enhance cognitive impairment as have been described to increase the uremic toxin production and activation of inflammatory pathways in the central nervous system. This is the first study providing evidence than brain and behavior might be influenced by the gut-brain axis in dialysis patients.

DECISION SUPPORT TECHNOLOGY FOR SPRINT PLANNING

Context. The article describes the relevant planning process of software projects, planning problems and different solutions to these problems basis on use of the Scrum methodology.Objective. The purpose of the work is to develop the technology for solving the sprint planning task in the face of uncertainty and possible risks from software development standpoint.Method. The most used software life cycle models are described. The choice of the Scrum as a widely used representative of agile methodology for software development is justified. An analytical review of the methods for estimation of the complexity of user stories is carried out. The major problems of sprint planning are highlighted. The model of the business process to implement an ITproject by Scrum in the form of an BPMN-diagram has been developed. The algorithm to solve the problem of Sprint Backlog planning with uncertainty has been elaborated. The common process of user stories selection from Product Backlog to Sprint Backlog and ways of solving the possible problems are considered. The task of estimation of labor intensity of user stories and the task of risk evaluation in planning are formalized. The technology of user story selection for Sprint Backlog has been developed. Numerical studies of the decision support technology proposed in the article are carried out. It allows suggesting it as the practical tool during sprint planning. The method of adequacy evaluation of proposed technology is offered. The set of key performance indicators for assessing the team performance is selected. Results. The sprint planning technology was developed, which project managers, product owners and development teams for increasing the effectiveness of decision-making process can use. Conclusions. The conducted experiments have confirmed the importance of the proposed decision support technology and allow recommending it for use in practice for planning of software projects. Scientific novelty is to improve the sprint planning process with the assistance of the proposed technology, which alleviates uncertainty while defining labor intensity of user stories and decreases time spent on decision making.

Adequacy evaluation of the annual colonoscopic surveillance and individual difference of disease phenotypes in Lynch syndrome.

Regular endoscopic surveillance for Lynch syndrome is reported to reduce colorectal cancer (CRC)-related mortality. However, the appropriate surveillance intervals are still unclear. We evaluated the adequacy of annual colonoscopy and investigated the differences in tumor occurrence rates between individual patients. In total, 25 patients with Lynch syndrome who underwent colonoscopic surveillance between 2007 and 2016 at the Iwakuni Clinical Center were included. We retrospectively investigated the surveillance frequency and the clinical features associated with tumor development. Colonoscopic surveillance was performed every 397days on average. A total of 101 tumors, including 8 intramucosal carcinomas and 15 carcinomas, were observed within the study period. Annual colonoscopy detected six malignancies, including a carcinoma requiring surgery. Tumor incidence was associated with tumor existence in the initial colonoscopies (P=0.018). Patients with a tumor occurrence rate of 0.4 tumors per year during our observation period were significantly more likely to have malignancies detected during regular surveillance than patients who had a lower occurrence rate (P<0.001). Malignancy occurrence rate was strongly associated with tumor occurrence rate (P<0.001, R2=0.44). Annual colonoscopic surveillance for Lynch syndrome patients was effective in reducing the risk of CRC progression, but was insufficient to completely avoid surgery. Because the tumor occurrence rate differed substantially between individuals, more intensive surveillance was required for high-risk patients.

Guiding cytotechnology students toward the future: Incorporating the use of ultrasound in FNA training.

Guiding cytotechnology students toward the future: Incorporating the use of ultrasound in FNA training.

Development of an Operational Adequacy Evaluation Framework for Operational Planning of Bulk Electric Power Systems

Proper long-term planning for investment in resources, timely operational planning to prepare resources and to decide on operational strategies, and proper operating decisions to respond to disturbances during real-time system operation are important to supply reliable power to customers as economically as possible. However, existing utility procedures are insufficient to comprehend uncertainties of modern renewable-integrated power systems and to provide suitable quatitative indicators to assist in operational planning. Independent system operators and utilities around the globe are developing new and unique approaches to operational planning to manage rising uncertainties in power generation from renewable sources like wind and PV. It is desirable to establish uniformity in operational adequacy evaluation methods and quantitative metrics applicable to all power systems in the operational planning horizon of days, weeks, or even months. This will help standardize the operational planning methodology and metrics, and simplify implementation of operational strategies. To address this need, this paper presents a probabilistic analytical methodology for operational adequacy evaluation of a bulk power system integrating the concepts of state enumeration and a novel Dynamic System State Probability Evaluation (DSSPE) approach in time series analysis to accommodate the operational as well as network characteristics. The proposed methodology is implemented on a test system to demonstrate operational adequacy-based operational planning, and to analyze the impact of factors such as unit commitment decisions, locational distribution of load, and generation on the operational adequacy of the system.

A Fast Adequacy Analysis for Radial Distribution Networks Considering Reconfiguration and DGs

The current searching schemes in reliability evaluation of radial distribution systems require complicated and extensive codes, that contribute to the majority of the CPU times. This paper proposes a new one-step method operating with a set of binary descriptor matrices, replacing the searching, to calculate load and system reliability indices. In this technique, ‘fuse to branch’ and ‘switch to branch’ are introduced and employed to facilitate the solutions along with the use of bus-injection to branch-current matrices. In this approach, the cross-connects operation, islanding mode of small-scale DGs, and network constraints are also considered as part of the adequacy evaluation. The proposed technique is highly efficient for long-term distribution network planning and optimization where many cross-connects are involved. The proposed technique is applied to RBTS Bus 2 and 4, as well as a realistic 747-node distribution network. Results for the large distribution planning of the 747-node network demonstrate the computational time is reduced from 61 days using the traditional method to 4.6 hours based on the proposed technique.

Nutrient Adequacy Evaluation of Aceh Cattle Fed with Concentrate for Forage Substitution and Performance Improvement

This study aims to evaluate nutrient adequacy based on the nutrient requirement and intake of Aceh cattle fed by concentrate as a substitution for forage to improve their performance and productivity. The study was conducted from May to July 2018 at Livestock Breeding and Forage Center for Excellence (BPTU-HPT) of Indrapuri, Aceh. Twenty heads of selected male and healthy Aceh cattle aged 1.5-2.5 yo with a weight of ±160 kg were divided into four treatment groups based on different forage and commercial concentrate feed levels, i.e. T1 as a control (fed with 25 kg of forage without any additional concentrate feed), T2 (fed with 20 kg of forage plus 1 kg of concentrate feed), T3 (fed with 15 kg of forage plus 2 kg of concentrate feed), and T4 (fed with 10 kg of forage plus 3 kg of concentrate feed). The data observed were ADG, feed consumption, and nutrient intake, requirement, and balance. Data were analyzed using one-way ANOVA and continued by DMRT. The difference in the amount of forage consumption was very significant (P <0.05), directly proportional to the amount of forage provided. Dry matter intake significantly increased with provision of concentrate (P <0.05). Increases in DM, CP, and TDN intakes were 0.75, 0.16, 0.40 kg/d, respectively. A negative balance was found in almost all nutrients and treatment groups, and there was only one positive balance, i.e. protein in T4 group. T3 group had met the DM requirement, but did not meet protein and TDN requirements, and also had the highest ADG (P <0.05) compared to the other groups. This study concludes that the use of concentrate as a substitute for forage improves nutrient intake of male Aceh cattle. Feeding of 2 kg of concentrate and 15 kg of forage can meet nutrient requirements of dry matter and provide the highest ADG.

Rescue and renewal of legacy soil resource inventories in Iran as an input to digital soil mapping

Maps of soil properties and classes are key inputs to land management, especially with the increasing awareness of ecosystem services provided by soils. Due to limited resources for new soil surveys, legacy soil inventories are often the major public source of soil data, and this is the case in Iran. One line of previous work has presented methods for data archaeology, rescue and renewal, and another line has shown the value of legacy surveys as covariates for digital soil mapping (DSM). The present study therefore aimed to integrate these two streams, adding another step of adequacy evaluation of the rescued surveys according to the Cornell guidelines. The study area is a 10,480 km2 region located at the border of Isfahan and Chaharmahal-va-Bakhtiari provinces, Iran, covered by three legacy studies at the scale of 1: 50,000. The legacy maps were georeferenced and geocorrected, after which the Cornell adequacy guidelines were used to assess the quality of soil unit separation as evaluated at four levels of Soil Taxonomy. Evaluation was by weighted accuracy and the Tau coefficient, based on forty-one legacy soil profiles from a correlation study. The weighted accuracy of the map and the Tau index at all classification levels were respectively greater than 70% and 50%, which can be considered as satisfactory separation of soil units. Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) predictive models of soil classes with and without the legacy map as covariate were fit. The predictive accuracy of the models was improved at all taxonomic levels when the renewed legacy soil map was included as a covariate. We conclude that the selected legacy soil maps are of reasonable quality and can be used as reliable and useful inputs to DSM, and we propose that these procedures be widely applied.

Convolutional neural network-automated hepatobiliary phase adequacy evaluation may optimize examination time

PurposeTo develop and evaluate the performance of a fully-automated convolutional neural network (CNN)-based algorithm to evaluate hepatobiliary phase (HBP) adequacy of gadoxetate disodium (EOB)-enhanced MRI. Secondarily, we explored the potential of the proposed CNN algorithm to reduce examination length by applying it to EOB-MRI examinations. MethodsWe retrospectively identified EOB-enhanced MRI-HBP series from examinations performed 2011–2018 (internal and external datasets). Our algorithm, comprising a liver segmentation and classification CNN, produces an adequacy score. Two abdominal radiologists independently classified series as adequate or suboptimal. The consensus determination of HBP adequacy was used as ground truth for CNN model training and validation. Reader agreement was evaluated with Cohen’s kappa. Performance of the algorithm was assessed by receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis and computation of the area under the ROC curve (AUC). Potential examination duration reduction was evaluated descriptively. Results1408 HBP series from 484 patients were included. Reader kappa agreement was 0.67 (internal dataset) and 0.80 (external dataset). AUCs were 0.97 (0.96-0.99) for internal and 0.95 (0.92–96) for external and were not significantly different from each other (p = 0.24). 48 % (50/105) examinations could have been shorter by applying the algorithm. ConclusionA proposed CNN-based algorithm achieves higher than 95 % AUC for classifying HBP images as adequate versus suboptimal. The application of this algorithm could potentially shorten examination time and aid radiologists in recognizing technically suboptimal images, avoiding diagnostic pitfalls.

Kangaroo Mother Care implementation research to develop models for accelerating scale-up in India and Ethiopia: study protocol for an adequacy evaluation

IntroductionKangaroo Mother Care (KMC) is the practice of early, continuous and prolonged skin-to-skin contact between the mother and the baby with exclusive breastfeeding. Despite clear evidence of impact in improving...

Evaluation of effectiveness of Mass Vaccination Campaign against Peste des petits ruminants in Chhattisgarh state, India.

The study evaluated the effectiveness of 'Mass Vaccination Campaign (MVC)' implemented against the contagious transboundary OIE notified Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) in sheep and goats on the lines of 'pulse polio campaign' for humans in Chhattisgarh state, India. The effectiveness was evaluated on the axes of adequacy, financial viability under with and without MVC through differencing under various scenarios and options and programme impact from a farmer's perspective. The adequacy evaluation revealed that the reported outbreaks, diagnosed and death cases declined under PPR-MVC inconsonance with increased vaccination coverage. Furthermore, the seroconversion increased during post PPR-MVC implies elevated immunity levels in the sheep and goat population. The estimated mean mortality loss was USD 45.2 and USD 16.5 per animal in goats and sheep, respectively, whereas the treatment and opportunity cost of labour was USD 1.9 and USD 2.5 per animal respectively. Under the low PPR incidence scenario, benefit: cost ratio, net present value and internal rate of return were 4.9:1, 48.9 million USD and 146.6%, whereas it was 12.4:1,142.7 million USD and 430.4% and 13.5:1,156.7 million USD and 430.4% under medium and high incidence scenarios. Furthermore, the option of vaccinating 100% risk population during the first year followed by 30% during subsequent years to cover naïve population will maximize benefits than 100% coverage every year; nevertheless, benefits outweighs cost manifolds in both of these options. The farmers had a positive opinion on the overall services provided under PPR-MVC and the results provide the empirical evidence on effectiveness of 'mass vaccination' for its replication in other states of India or countries with similar socio-economic and rearing environments.

Faecal freezing preservation period influences colonization ability for faecal microbiota transplantation.

There has been growing interest in faecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) as treatment. Although, frozen donor faeces preserved at -20°C has been widely used for practical advantages, freezing at -20°C can affect bacterial viability. Adequacy evaluation of fresh and frozen faeces as the transplant is necessary for the methodological improvement of FMT. The viable bacterial compositions of faecal specimens under fresh and freezing conditions were compared by a microbiome analysis using propidium monoazide (PMA microbiome). In addition, recovery abilities from bacterial reduction by antibiotics were compared between fresh and frozen FMT using a murine model. PMA microbiome results suggested that freezing and freeze-thawing did not significantly affect invitro faecal bacterial viability. However, the recovery effect from antimicrobial cleansing in frozen FMT was reduced in a freezing time-dependent manner, especially prominent in Actinobacteria and Bacteroidetes phyla. Short-term freezing preservation of faeces exhibited maintenance of enteric colonization ability in frozen FMT in comparison to 1month -20°C-preservation. Long-term -20°C-preservation of transplanted faeces can result in instability of the clinical outcome in FMT therapy. The standardization of practical procedures of FMT therapy according to disease types is desirable.

Probabilistic evaluation and design aspects for reliability enhancement of induction motor

This paper presents the probabilistic evaluation, design aspects and scientific suggestions to improve the reliability and performance of an industrial induction motor. The induction motors have experienced a long life and a high efficiency in service with appropriate design and quality control. However, reliability quantification and adequacy evaluation are still necessary and important for customer satisfaction, design improvement, marketing, vendor selection, production plan, service life determination, and scheduled maintenance. The industrial data related to manufacturing and failure of induction motors are analysed for reliability assessment and design suggestions. The reliability indices like Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) and failure rate of induction motors are evaluated using industrial data-based exponential probabilistic distribution function, which is issued to plan the maintenance schedule of the industrial induction motors. The technological suggestions are finally presented in this paper to reduce the failure rate and enhance the MTBF for reliability improvement of induction motors.

Probabilistic evaluation and design aspects for reliability enhancement of induction motor

This paper presents the probabilistic evaluation, design aspects and scientific suggestions to improve the reliability and performance of an industrial induction motor. The induction motors have experienced a long life and a high efficiency in service with appropriate design and quality control. However, reliability quantification and adequacy evaluation are still necessary and important for customer satisfaction, design improvement, marketing, vendor selection, production plan, service life determination, and scheduled maintenance. The industrial data related to manufacturing and failure of induction motors are analysed for reliability assessment and design suggestions. The reliability indices like Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) and failure rate of induction motors are evaluated using industrial data-based exponential probabilistic distribution function, which is issued to plan the maintenance schedule of the industrial induction motors. The technological suggestions are finally presented in this paper to reduce the failure rate and enhance the MTBF for reliability improvement of induction motors.

МАТЕМАТИЧНЕ МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ФАКТОРУ ЕВАПОТРАНСПІРАЦІЇ ПРИ ЗМІНІ РІВНЯ ҐРУНТОВИХ ВОД МІСЬКИХ ТЕРИТОРІЙ

В роботі здійснено математичне моделювання зміни рівня ґрунтових вод (РГВ) з урахуванням впливу штучних покриттів поверхні ґрунту і евапотранспірації. Мета дослідження − підвищити точність прогнозів зміни рівня ґрунтових вод для підвищення екологічної безпеки міських територій, підтоплених ґрунтовими водами. Прогноз максимального рівня ґрунтових вод для міста Харкова, без врахування ефекту евапотранспірації на перспективу 50 років, свідчить, що на 1-й рік підйом рівня становитиме 0,03 м, а на 50-й рік – близько 1,5 м. З метою оптимізації водного балансу підземних вод для забезпечення екологічної безпеки підтоплених територій великого міста, на основі запропонованої математичної моделі було проведено балансування видаткових та прибуткових статей. Балансування відбувається при зниженні додаткового живлення в 2,4 рази, тобто додаткове живлення необхідно зменшити в середньому на 240 000 м3/добу, а також при збільшенні водовідбору з першого від поверхні водоносного горизонту в середньому в 15 разів, тобто при збільшенні водовідбору в межах м. Харків в середньому на 300 000 м3/добу. Також зроблено прогноз зміни РГВ із урахуванням дії евапотранспірації на перспективу 50 років. Під штучними покриттями на 1-й рік підйом рівня складе 0,05 м, а на 50–й рік – вже 2,56 м. На території, вільній від штучних покриттів РГВ буде стабілізований дією евапотранспірації. Таким чином, поширення площі штучних покриттів по території міста сприятиме зниженню дії евапотранспірації і стійкому підвищенню РГВ та розвитку підтоплення. Проведено оцінку адекватності запропонованої математичної моделі за фактичними даними моніторингу рівня ґрунтових вод. Оцінка адекватності проводиться на двох різних за ландшафтними умовами ділянках. Перша ділянка переважно розташована посеред приватного сектору та має вільну від покриттів поверхню. Друга ділянка практично повністю вкрита штучними покриттями. Результати розрахунків на моделі визначили тісний взаємозв’язок між розрахунковими та фактичними значеннями моніторингу рівнів підземних вод. Це свідчить про адекватність створеної математичної моделі реальним фізичним умовам.

A Study on the Adequacy Evaluation of Criteria of Occupant Load Density in School Classrooms

A Study on the Adequacy Evaluation of Criteria of Occupant Load Density in School Classrooms

Teaching FNA techniques and ultrasound guided FNA

Teaching FNA techniques and ultrasound guided FNA

Model Selection Process in Time Series Analysis of Production System with Random Output

In time series investigation of characteristics of production system, different competing models are generally obtained particularly in production settings with stochastic output attributable to bottleneck problems. Consequently, selecting the best model that describes a production system becomes challenging and critical because some models that fit observed data most accurately may not predict future values correctly on account to model complexities. This research desires to demonstrate the procedure for model selection in production system with random output via the use of Adjusted Coefficient of Determination (), Akaike and Schwarz criteria tools. Production output measurements obtained serve as input data to Autocorrelation Function and Partial Autocorrelation Function to obtain the order of Autoregressive, Autoregressive Moving Average and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models. The model parameters were estimated and used for predictions and compared with original and transformed data to obtain Sum of Squared Error (SSE). Afterward, the models were subjected to adequacy evaluation and subsequently tested with Akaike and Schwarz criteria. Among the competing models, ARIMA (3, 1, 1) model explain 66% variance of the dataset and wielded the lowest Akaike and Schwarz values of 534.41m and 534.34m respectively and thus selected as the model that represents the production system under investigation. The approach establishes that Adjusted Coefficient of Determination in conjunction with Akaike and Schwarz criteria are adequate tools for model selection in time series investigation particularly in stochastic situation