Additional Years Of Data Research Articles

Trends in Prostate Cancer Incidence Rates and Prevalence of Prostate Specific Antigen Screening by Socioeconomic Status and Regions in the United States, 2004 to 2013

To our knowledge it is unknown whether decreases in the prevalence of prostate specific antigen screening and prostate cancer incidence rates following the USPSTF (United States Preventive Services Task Force) recommendations against routine prostate specific antigen screening are similar across socioeconomic groups and United States census regions. We analyzed incidence rates and prostate specific antigen screening prevalence by age, race/ethnicity, disease stage, United States region and area level socioeconomic status. Annual percent changes were examined for changes in rates with time. The predicted marginal probability and 95% CIs were calculated to estimate changes in prostate specific antigen screening. Incidence rates in men 50 years old or older decreased in all race/ethnic, regional and socioeconomic status groups. From 2007 to 2013 the overall incidence rates for localized cancer significantly decreased 7.5% per year (95% CI -10.5--4.4) at ages 50 to 74 years and 11.1% per year (95% CI -14.1--8.1) at ages 75 years or greater. In contrast, the incidence of distant stage cancer significantly increased 1.4% per year (95% CI 0.3-2.5) from 2008 to 2013 at ages 50 to 74 years but stabilized from 2011 to 2013 at ages 75 years or greater at 5.1% per year (95% CI -3.4-14.4). Distant stage disease rates increased with increasing poverty level at ages 50 to 74 years but not at 75 years or greater. The prostate cancer incidence of early stage disease decreased in men 50 years old or older while the rate of distant stage disease slightly increased in men 50 to 74 years old following USPSTF recommendations against routine prostate specific antigen screening. Further studies with additional years of data are needed to substantiate our findings and monitor the effects of the late stage disease increase on prostate cancer mortality rates.

Reducing retrospective patterns in stock assessment and impacts on management performance

Abstract Retrospective patterns are consistent directional changes in assessment estimates of biomass in a given year when additional years of data are added to an assessment, and have been identified for a number of exploited marine stocks. Retrospective patterns are sometimes reduced by allowing population processes to vary over time in an assessment, but it is unclear how this practice influences management performance. We simulated stocks in which retrospective patterns were induced by forcing natural mortality, selectivity, or growth to vary over time. We then evaluated the impacts of reducing retrospective patterns by allowing population processes to vary in the assessment. In general, allowing selectivity, natural mortality, and growth to vary in the assessment decreased the magnitude of retrospective patterns in estimated spawning biomass, regardless of whether the true time-varying process was allowed to vary. However, the resulting reference points and management advice were sometimes drastically in error when a process other than the true time-varying process was allowed to vary, and these errors resulted in under-utilizing or over-exploiting the stock. Given the potential for error, identifying the important population processes that vary over time when addressing retrospective patterns should be a priority when providing management advice and may require increased longitudinal life history studies.

Search for neutrinos from the Fermi Bubbles with the ANTARES telescope

Two additional years of data (2014 and 2015, previous analysis: 2008–13) from the ANTARES neutrino telescope have been analysed using track-like event signatures from the Fermi Bubbles region. Six events are found in the signal region with a background expectation of 6.7 leading to more stringent upper limits for the signal flux. A benchmark study indicates that the sensitivity for the Fermi Bubble flux can be boosted when adding the shower channel to the analysis.

Comparing cross‐country estimates of Lorenz curves using a Dirichlet distribution across estimators and datasets

SummaryChotikapanich and Griffiths (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2002, 20(2), 290–295) introduced the Dirichlet distribution to the estimation of Lorenz curves. This distribution naturally accommodates the proportional nature of income share data and the dependence structure between the shares. Chotikapanich and Griffiths fit a family of five Lorenz curves to one year of Swedish and Brazilian income share data using unconstrained maximum likelihood and unconstrained nonlinear least squares. We attempt to replicate the authors' results and extend their analyses using both constrained estimation techniques and five additional years of data. We successfully replicate a majority of the authors' results and find that some of their main qualitative conclusions also hold using our constrained estimators and additional data.

The Treadmill of Destruction in Comparative Perspective: A Panel Study of Military Spending and Carbon Emissions, 1960-2014

This article analyzes a unique panel data set to assess the effect of militarism on per capita carbon dioxide emissions. We extend previous research examining the effects of military expenditures on carbon emissions by including in our analyses over 30 years of additional data. In addition, we compare our preliminary results to those obtained from other estimation procedures. Specifically, we report and visually illustrate the results of 54 cross-sectional models (one for each year) and 36 unique panel regression models on both balanced and unbalanced panels. We assess how this relationship has changed over time by testing for interactions between military spending and time and by systematically re-analyzing our data across 180 panel regressions with varying time frames. A strong and enduring association between military spending and per capita carbon emissions is indicated in cross-sectional comparisons. Our panel analyses reveal a much weaker and varying relationship that has become stronger in recent decades. Moreover, we find that the effect of military spending on per capita carbon emissions is moderated by countries’ level of economic development, with military spending of more wealthy countries having relatively larger net effects on carbon emissions. We partially confirm previous findings on the temporal stability of the environmental impacts of militarism. Our analyses show, however, that this temporal stability has emerged relatively recently, and that the relationship between military expenditures and carbon emissions is weaker prior to the 1990s.

Comparing Cross-Country Estimates of Lorenz Curves Using a Dirichlet Distribution Across Estimators and Datasets

Chotikapanich and Griffiths (2002) introduced the Dirichlet distribution to the estimation of Lorenz curves. This distribution naturally accommodates the proportional nature of income share data and the dependence structure between the shares. Chotikapanich and Griffiths (2002) fit a family of five Lorenz curves to one year of Swedish and Brazilian income share data using unconstrained maximum likelihood and unconstrained non-linear least squares. We attempt to replicate the authors' results and extend their analyses using both constrained estimation techniques and five additional years of data. We successfully replicate a majority of the authors' results and find that some of their main qualitative conclusions also hold using our constrained estimators and additional data.

Gerontological Competencies among MSW Students: Evaluation of a Gerontology Specialization Program

ABSTRACTThe purpose of this study was to conduct a preliminary evaluation of a gerontology specialization program (GSP) within a Council on Social Work Education (CSWE)–accredited master of social work (MSW) program. This study utilized a pretest/posttest design with a three-group comparison: group 1—GSP students; group 2—students from the group 1 program but not in GSP; and group 3—students at two external MSW programs with no GSPs. The overall sample comprised 220 advanced year students. A CSWE Gero-Ed Center/Hartford Partnership empirical measure was used to assess overall, gero social work practice competency. Within-group analyses revealed a significant increase in gero competency scores from pretest to posttest among all groups, with GSP students showing the largest increase. Between-group analysis at pretest revealed that the GSP group showed lower gero competency scores than both non-GSP groups. At posttest, these results overturned: GSP students scored significantly higher gero competency scores than both non-GSP groups. These preliminary findings suggest that the GSP offers an impactful, positive role in development of practice skills for the next generation of gero social work practitioners and scholars. A follow-up study with additional years of data will increase longitudinal rigor and confidence in the long-range efficacy of this GSP.

Nationalism and Economic Openness: The Cross-Country Evidence Revisited

In this paper we examine the empirical relationship between economic openness and nationalism. We replicate and extend the cross-country analysis of Lan and Li (2015) using additional measures of nationalism and additional years of data from the World Values Survey. We fail to find the negative relationship between economic openness and nationalism that Lan and Li (2015) find, even when using the same data sources, years and sample of countries. When we expand the sample of countries and years of the data, we find no statistically significant relationship between economic openness and nationalism.

Predicting the Stability of Endangered Stonecats in the LaPlatte River, Vermont

AbstractStonecats Noturus flavus in Vermont conform to a rare distribution pattern (as designated by Rabinowitz 1981) because their known distribution within the state is limited to the LaPlatte and Missisquoi rivers. We focused on Stonecats in the LaPlatte River to predict the stability of the population. During 2012–2014, we captured Stonecats via backpack electrofishing; fish were PIT‐tagged (>90 mm TL) and marked with visible implant elastomer. Among the 1,671 Stonecats that were captured, 1,252 were PIT‐tagged. Only 156 (12%) of the PIT‐tagged fish were recaptured, and only 22 of those individuals were recaptured more than once. The Pradel model in Program MARK was used to estimate apparent survival (Φ) and seniority, which were used to derive the rate of population change (λ) for the Stonecat encounter histories we studied. We examined a total of 64 models in our candidate set, with the following covariates: TL at first capture, maximum temperature, season, maximum discharge, and area sampled. Survival estimates were highest in the spring (range of daily Φ = 0.9993–0.9995) and increased with greater TL at first capture. We also estimated increases in capture probability with increasing area sampled. We derived an annual λ of 0.9794, which indicates a slightly decreasing population. However, our λ estimate contained uncertainty that was likely increased due to the low recapture rates. Additional years of data could increase the accuracy of the λ estimate. In the meantime, we have provided insight into Stonecat population parameters that were otherwise unknown.Received December 22, 2015; accepted March 1, 2016 Published online June 29, 2016

Great Company, Great Investment Revisited

Fortune magazine publishes an annual list of America’s most-admired companies. These companies’ virtues are well known and presumably already factored into stock prices, yet Anderson and Smith found that a portfolio of the 10 most admired stocks outperformed the overall market by a substantial and statistically significant margin over the first 22 years that the list was compiled. This article uses 10 additional years of data to see whether this finding is replicated or refuted. TOPICS:Security analysis and valuation, information providers/credit ratings, performance measurement

Extremely Intense Hurricanes: Revisiting Webster et al. (2005) after 10 Years

Abstract Ten years ago, Webster et al. documented a large and significant increase in both the number as well as the percentage of category 4 and 5 hurricanes for all global basins from 1970 to 2004, and this manuscript examines whether those trends have continued when including 10 additional years of data. In contrast to that study, as shown here, the global frequency of category 4 and 5 hurricanes has shown a small, insignificant downward trend while the percentage of category 4 and 5 hurricanes has shown a small, insignificant upward trend between 1990 and 2014. Accumulated cyclone energy globally has experienced a large and significant downward trend during the same period. The primary reason for the increase in category 4 and 5 hurricanes noted in observational datasets from 1970 to 2004 by Webster et al. is concluded to be due to observational improvements at the various global tropical cyclone warning centers, primarily in the first two decades of that study.

Projecting long-term non-Fickian diffusion behavior in polymeric composites based on short-term data: a 5-year validation study

The slow approach to equilibrium concentration indicative of non-Fickian diffusion in polymer composites necessitates experimental time frames which are often of limited feasibility. As a result, experimental studies are terminated prematurely due to time constraints or incorrect identification of equilibrium. Here, the three-dimensional anisotropic diffusion behaviors of six-, twelve-, and forty-ply quartz-reinforced bismaleimide laminates are quantified through a 5-year, full-immersion gravimetric absorption study. The applicability of the three-dimensional hindered diffusion model is investigated, while projections of future absorption behavior made at 21 months are revisited in light of 3 years of additional data. The mathematical equivalency of the hindered diffusion model and a diffusion–relaxation model under certain conditions is discussed. Moisture content rises continuously throughout the 5-year experiment for all samples. In the six-ply case, the standard termination criterion for the equilibrium condition is met before 6 months and 1.38 % moisture content by weight. Actual moisture content reaches 1.56 % after 5 years. The hindered diffusion model and associated forward projections of moisture content are found to conform well to experimental results.

Planetary candidates around the pulsating sdB star KIC 5807616 considered doubtful

Context. It has been suggested that two weak signals observed in the low frequency region of the Fourier transform amplitude spectra from the KIC 5807616 Q5-Q8 data can be interpreted as a result of the light reflection from planets orbiting the host star. Ever since the last results on KIC 5807616 were presented, the Kepler spacecraft has collected over two years of additional data, which we analysed using asteroseismological methods. Aims. To verify and improve on previous results, we used the Q 5-Q 17 Kepler data to identify pulsational modes, determine multiplet splitting, and to re-analyse the low frequency region between 33−49 μ Hz where two frequencies, claimed as the planetary signature, were found. Methods. Since Fourier transform amplitude spectra of the KIC 5807616 data do not show any clear multiplets, we used two stable acoustic modes to determine the theoretical width of gravity mode multiplets and their splittings. The period spacing and histograms of common multiplet component separations were used to identify pulsation modes and the observed gravity mode splittings. In the low frequency region, we analysed the amplitude variations of two planetary signature frequencies over the whole observing run. Results. We determined the rotational period of the star from the splittings. Analysis of the low frequency region shows that the amplitude and frequency change of the signals found there have similar characteristics to other gravity modes. Conclusions. New data allow for identifying gravity modes in a limited period range, as well as better rotational period estimations. We suggest that the so-called planetary signature frequencies found in previous work might instead be pulsation modes visible beyond the cut-off frequency of the star.

Impact of the Maturing Varicella Vaccination Program on Varicella and Related Outcomes in the United States: 1994-2012.

Although the 1-dose varicella vaccination program, introduced in 1996, has led to significant declines in varicella disease, outbreaks continued to occur, which led to the adoption of a 2-dose vaccination program in 2007. We previously reported an 88% decline in varicella-related hospitalizations and a 59% decline in outpatient visits during 1994-2002. We now update data on varicella healthcare utilization with 10 years of additional data, during a period of stabilizing first-dose coverage and rapidly increasing second-dose coverage. We performed a retrospective cohort study using claims data from 1994-2012 Truven Health MarketScan databases. We examined trends in rates of varicella-related outpatient visits and hospitalizations for MarketScan enrollees aged 0-49 years, including outpatient laboratory testing, outpatient antiviral use, and pediatric strokes, with 1994-1995 as the prevaccination period and 2006-2012 as the 2-dose varicella vaccination period. Varicella outpatient visits declined 84% in 2012 versus the prevaccination period, with a 60% decline during the 2-dose period. Varicella hospitalizations declined 93% in 2012 versus the prevaccination period, with a 38% decline during the 2-dose period. The proportion of those with a varicella outpatient visit having varicella laboratory testing increased from 6% in 2003 to 17% in 2012. There were 21 445 (17%) with a claim for antivirals, which was relatively stable over time. There was no reduction in pediatric strokes during 1994-2012. We document from our large study population that the varicella vaccination program has led to significant declines in outpatient visits and hospitalizations from the prevaccination period through 2012, with additional declines during the 2-dose varicella vaccination period.

The Utility of Including the Strengths of Underage Drinking Laws in Determining Their Effect on Outcomes.

To control underage drinking in the United States, which has been associated with an estimated 5,000 deaths and 2.6 million injuries or other harm annually, each state has developed a unique set of laws. Previous research examining these laws' effectiveness has frequently focused on the laws' existence without considering variance in sanctions, enforcement, or exemptions. We scored 20 minimum legal drinking age 21 (MLDA-21) laws for their strengths and weaknesses based on (i) sanctions for violating the law, (ii) exceptions or exemptions affecting application, and (iii) provisions affecting the law or enforcement. We then replicated a 2009 study of the effects of 6 MLDA-21 laws in 3 different ways (using identical structural equation modeling): Study 1-8 additional years of data, no law strengths; Study 2-years from the original study, added law strengths; Study 3-additional years, law strengths, serving as an update of the 6 laws' effects. In all 3 studies-and the original study-keg registration laws were associated with both an unexpected significant increase (+11%, p < 0.001) in underage drinking-driver ratios and a notable 25% reduction in per capita beer consumption-opposing results that are difficult to explain. In Study 3, possession and purchase laws were associated with a significant decrease in underage drinking-driver fatal crash ratios (-4.9%, p < 0.001; -3.6%, p < 0.001, respectively). Similarly, zero tolerance and use and lose laws were associated with reductions in underage drinking-driver ratios (-2.8%, p < 0.001; -5.3%, p < 0.001, respectively). Including strengths and weaknesses of underage drinking laws is important when examining their effects on various outcomes as the model fit statistics indicated. We suggest that this will result in more accurate and more reliable estimates of the impact of the laws on various outcome measures.

Creating the foundation data for building a population grouping methodology – lessons learned at the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI)

Background In April 2013, CIHI initiated a project to develop a population grouping methodology that stratifies a population based on past clinical information and produces risk measures (i.e., costs for the prospective year). The methodology includes all individuals in the population at a given moment, including those who are not using the health system. The foundation data for this project include historical clinical administrative and utilization data that are linkable at the individual level. Ideally, such a methodology includes multiple years of data that cover multiple health sectors and the full population. For example, if two years of data are used to develop clinical profiles, and if predictive indicators aim to estimate need one year in the future, then three consecutive years of data are needed. It is also important to assess the stability of the predictive indicators over time and to determine the optimal historical review period for the clinical classification; as a result, there is a need for additional years of data for such a project. One goal for this project was for the methodology to be useful to the majority of Canadian provinces. A province will not benefit from any methodology where personlevel linkable clinical information are not available to apply (vs. develop) the methodology. Clinical data only are needed to apply the final methodology, so they need to be of a consistently high quality across the provinces. This rationale influenced the choice of health sectors to incorporate into the methodology. CIHI does not have full pan-Canadian coverage of patient-level linkable clinical data for all health sectors. Some sectors have partial or no coverage within some provinces (e.g., emergency department, home care, long-term care, drug prescriptions). Some sectors have full coverage within the provinces, but CIHI does not have access to patientlevel linkable data (e.g., physician billing). Additionally, while data coverage may be sufficient in the present, historical data can be limited. These coverage issues influenced the sectors and provinces included in the foundation data.

Apple scab: numerical optimization of a new thermal time scale and application for modelling ascospore release in southern France

Adequate protection of apple trees during the primary contamination period is a cornerstone for management of apple scab. Correct timing of spring treatments is fundamental and thus, much effort has been devoted to forecasting ascospore release by Venturia inaequalis. Most models rely on degree‐day accumulation starting from a biofix date established yearly on the basis of biological observations. Here, the potential of using a single calendar date as a biofix and new types of time scales were explored, with the help of numerical optimization with field‐collected data. Using data acquired between 1996 and 2008, the daily rate of development for V. inaequalis primary inoculum was assessed by fitting generic time scale functions, a method that requires the smallest number of assumptions about the effect of temperature on the biological phenomenon. An optimal calendar biofix was established for Provence and use of non‐linear functions relating pseudothecial development rate to temperature for accumulating thermal time was compared with the usual linear response in standard degree‐day models. A model was then constructed using four additional years of data for validation. The predictive value of the model was further improved by adjusting the time scale with ‘accelerating rules’ to take into account the positive influence of rainy days on pseudothecial maturation prior to ascospore release. However, ‘halting rules’ inserted in the time scale to account for dry days during the ascospore release period strongly reduced the predictive value of the model for southern France, suggesting the possible occurrence of strains adapted to dry conditions.

Identifying modes in KIC 5807616, a Pulsating sdB Star fromKeplerField

KIC 5807616 is a pulsating B-type hot subdwarf, reported to harbor planets. Its Kepler spacecraft Q 2 and Q 5 -Q 8 light curves as well as spectroscopic data were already analyzed and parameters characterizing the star were derived. Since then, Kepler had collected 2 years of additional data (Q 9 -Q 16 and half of Q 17). One might think new data could improve previously derived parameters, but it doesn’t seem to be that easy. It appears that the Fourier transform amplitude spectra of the KIC 5807616 data do not show ”clear” multiplets. Therefore, in this work we performed the mode identification based mainly on the period spacing of g-modes, while the analysis of multiplet splitting relied on two p-modes with stable multiplet components. We also derived the rotational period of the star and analyzed the low frequency region of the FT, where signatures of two planets were found in the past, but we had difficulties confirming their existence.

Looking in the rear-view mirror: bias and retrospective patterns in integrated, age-structured stock assessment models

Abstract Retrospective patterns are systematic changes in estimates of population size, or other assessment model-derived quantities, that occur as additional years of data are added to, or removed from, a stock assessment. These patterns are an insidious problem, and can lead to severe errors when providing management advice. Here, we use a simulation framework to show that temporal changes in selectivity, natural mortality, and growth can induce retrospective patterns in integrated, age-structured models. We explore the potential effects on retrospective patterns of catch history patterns, as well as model misspecification due to not accounting for time-varying biological parameters and selectivity. We show that non-zero values for Mohn’s ρ (a common measure for retrospective patterns) can be generated even where there is no model misspecification, but the magnitude of Mohn’s ρ tends to be lower when the model is not misspecified. The magnitude and sign of Mohn’s ρ differed among life histories, with different life histories reacting differently from each type of temporal change. The value of Mohn’s ρ is not related to either the sign or magnitude of bias in the estimate of terminal year biomass. We propose a rule of thumb for values of Mohn’s ρ which can be used to determine whether a stock assessment shows a retrospective pattern.

The Impact of Right to Carry Laws and the NRC Report: The Latest Lessons for the Empirical Evaluation of Law and Policy

For over a decade, there has been a spirited academic debate over the impact on crime of laws that grant citizens the presumptive right to carry concealed handguns in public – so-called right-to-carry (RTC) laws. In 2004, the National Research Council (NRC) offered a critical evaluation of the “More Guns, Less Crime” hypothesis using county-level crime data for the period 1977-2000. 15 of the 16 academic members of the NRC panel essentially concluded that the existing research was inadequate to conclude that RTC laws increased or decreased crime. One member of the panel thought the NRC's panel data regressions showed that RTC laws decreased murder, but the other 15 responded by saying that “the scientific evidence does not support” that position. We evaluate the NRC evidence, and improve and expand on the report’s county data analysis by analyzing an additional six years of county data as well as state panel data for the period 1979-2010. We also present evidence using both a more plausible version of the Lott and Mustard specification, as well as our own preferred specification (which, unlike the Lott and Mustard model presented in the NRC report, does control for rates of incarceration and police). While we have considerable sympathy with the NRC’s majority view about the difficulty of drawing conclusions from simple panel data models and re-affirm its finding that the conclusion of the dissenting panel member that RTC laws reduce murder has no statistical support, we disagree with the NRC report’s judgment on one methodological point: the NRC report states that cluster adjustments to correct for serial correlation are not needed in these panel data regressions, but our randomization tests show that without such adjustments the Type 1 error soars to 22-73 percent. Our paper highlights some important questions to consider when using panel data methods to resolve questions of law and policy effectiveness. We buttress the NRC’s cautious conclusion regarding the effects of RTC laws by showing how sensitive the estimated impact of RTC laws is to different data periods, the use of state versus county data, particular specifications (especially the Lott-Mustard inclusion of 36 highly collinear demographic variables), and the decision to control for state trends. Across the basic seven Index I crime categories, the strongest evidence of a statistically significant effect would be for aggravated assault, with 11 of 28 estimates suggesting that RTC laws increase this crime at the .10 confidence level. An omitted variable bias test on our preferred Table 8a results suggests that our estimated 8 percent increase in aggravated assaults from RTC laws may understate the true harmful impact of RTC laws on aggravated assault, which may explain why this finding is only significant at the .10 level in many of our models. Our analysis of the year-by-year impact of RTC laws also suggests that RTC laws increase aggravated assaults. Our analysis of admittedly imperfect gun aggravated assaults provides suggestive evidence that RTC laws may be associated with large increases in this crime, perhaps increasing such gun assaults by almost 33 percent. In addition to aggravated assault, the most plausible state models conducted over the entire 1979-2010 period provide evidence that RTC laws increase rape and robbery (but usually only at the .10 level). In contrast, for the period from 1999-2010 (which seeks to remove the confounding influence of the crack cocaine epidemic), the preferred state model (for those who accept the Wolfers proposition that one should not control for state trends) yields statistically significant evidence for only one crime – suggesting that RTC laws increase the rate of murder at the .05 significance level. It will be worth exploring whether other methodological approaches and/or additional years of data will confirm the results of this panel-data analysis and clarify some of the highly sensitive results and anomalies (such as the occasional estimates that RTC laws lead to higher rates of property crime) that have plagued this inquiry for over a decade.