Adaptive Projection Research Articles

Real options analysis for valuation of climate adaptation pathways with application to transit infrastructure.

Climate change and sea-level rise (SLR) are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of coastal flood events, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructure. While regional climate adaptation investments can provide substantive flood protection, existing plans often neglect uncertainty in future climate conditions and adaptation performance, consequently neglecting the option value of flexibly implementing proposed projects. Addressing this gap, we develop and employ a generalizable real options analysis (ROA) valuation framework that considers how uncertainty in adaptation project costs, SLR, flood severity, and flood losses inform the full range of adaptation performance outcomes. We further propose and apply a novel, computationally efficient flood loss sampling algorithm to estimate the consequences of randomly arriving coastal flood events. We apply this ROA framework to assess the option value of flexibly timing adaptation investments over time, investigating an adaptation pathway proposed by the City of Boston from the perspective of the regional transit system manager. Our results suggest that flexible implementation can provide significant option value in the near- to mid-term (>30 years), with the highest option values under low-probability, high-consequence scenarios. Our results also suggest adaptation pathway performance in the latter half of the 21st century is most sensitive to uncertainty in SLR, flood loss estimates, and flood frequency, underscoring the importance of uncertainty quantification in the long-term valuation of adaptation investments.

Unintended consequences of climate change adaptation: African case studies and typologies on pitfalls and windfalls

ABSTRACT Climate change adaptation concerns mechanisms for responding to local climate change impacts to improve livelihoods of and decrease risks to affected stakeholders. In this article, we present evidence and novel insights from selected climate change adaption cases studies in Sub-Saharan Africa, shared directly by climate change practitioners. Our aim is to foster awareness and comprehension for local, national and transnational actors, enabling better decision-making, project implementation and policy design. To achieve this we describe and assess positive spillovers and negative externalities of climate change adaptation. Building on our collection of case studies, we focussed on classifying adaptation projects according to a set of typologies identified by the researchers. To further explain the typology classification related to the occurrence of (un)intended (side) effects, we identified factors that may enable sustainable adaptation scenarios based on lessons shared about the investigated projects. These systems are based on existing political economic research on the state-of-the-art ‘4E’– method (representing enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, entrenchment) evident in the literature and case study applications, which we adapted to fit our research questions. The factors include collaboration across scales, data availability and learning, bottom-up involvement/participation. We also formulated the positive counterpart of each of the four E dimensions. One finding was that the category lose-win, where the intended goal was not achieved, yet a positive spillover occurred, would be more likely to emerge with the factors ‘bottom-up participation’ as well as ‘learning across scales’ being present.

SWADAPT2: benefits of a collision avoidance assistance for powered wheelchair users in driving difficulty

Purpose In France, tens of thousands of people use a wheelchair. Driving powered wheelchairs (PWCs) present risks for users and their families. The risk of collision in PWC driver increases with severity of disability and may reduce their independence to drive. The European ADAPT project has developed a robotic assistance add-on for PWCs to prevent collisions and improve their driving performance. Materials and methods The aim of the SWADAPT2 study is to assess the benefit of this robotic assistance add-on arranged on a Standard Quickie Salsa M2 PWC in a population of PWC drivers with neurological disorders and driving difficulties. Eighteen (18) participants tested the system on three circuits of increasing difficulty, with and without the robotic assistance add-on. Results The benefit of the robotic assistance add-on was important especially on the more difficult circuits without impacting cognitive load or driving speed. The number of collisions was significantly reduced when using robotic assistance add-on from 2.16 to 0.36 on circuit 2 (p = 0.009) and from 7.3 to 1.33 on circuit 3 (p = 0.0009). Task load demand was not increased with the assistance. Conclusion Finally, this system seems to be indicated to assist and improve driving safety for PWC drivers in driving difficulty. Evaluation was performed in controlled environments; therefore, further evaluation in real-world scenarios is needed to reach technology readiness.

AN ADAPTIVE DECISION-MAKING SUPPORT MODEL IN THE MANAGEMETN OF ENGINEERING INFRASTRUCTURE RECONSTRUCTION PROGRAMS AND PROJECTS

Reconstruction of engineering infrastructure has become an important topic for Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of russian federation in 2022. Standard approach to implementation of programs and projects is inefficient for turbulent environments and therefore the use adaptive approach is relevant. The concept of adaptive management has been analyzed. Means and instruments of adaptive management were analyzed. It was defined that different means and instruments of adaptive management are relevant for different program implementation phases. For the delivery phase these are learning and forecasting, for the closure phase – analysis of obtained experience for more efficient implementation of the next programs, for the definition phase – instruments that can ensure the further implementation of adaptivity to the management processes. An adaptive decision-making support model concept is proposed for adaptive engineering infrastructure reconstruction programs and projects management. The model is based on machine learning methods and can be used for program architecture and project work structure development and management. In this case the decision-making consists in choosing the optimal composition and configuration of the system that is the reconstruction object from among the available alternatives by predicting the values of the parameters of its elements in order to minimize the costs of implementing the program or the project. The model is created with Microsoft Azure Machine Learning Studio, the user interface is created in Microsoft Excel. The distinguishing features of the model are adaptivity due to the use of machine learning methods, possibility of scaling of the model to ensure its application to different system levels and presence of post-processing instruments for different use cases including calculation of additional parameter values, parameter values dependency graphs construction etc. The dataset for the model consists of several parameter categories that characterize the system modelled: technical and technological parameters, environmental parameters, energy efficiency parameters, energy security parameters, economic parameters, operational safety parameters. Keywords: adaptive program management, adaptive project management, decision support systems, machine learning.

Forced Emplacement

Abstract As intensifying floods and other climate extremes proliferate, narratives of unidirectional climate migration have become ubiquitous in media coverage and policy debates. This article reviews new scholarship that attends to an underreported dimension of climate change impact exposure. Emerging conversations in Indigenous climate justice research, mobility studies, and critical urban adaptation scholarship seek to understand why so many marginalized communities find themselves immobilized in the face of climate extremes. I argue that these scholars are building a concept of forced emplacement to politicize and historicize the uneven distribution of climate harms. Drawing on this scholarship and brief ethnographic sketches from my work in Peru and the Maldives, I follow forced emplacement across diverse case studies that root devastating immobilizations from flooding in local histories of colonial confinement, unevenly policed mobility, and varied efforts to control marginalized populations. I also illuminate how climate-exposed communities contest adaptation projects that reproduce their immobilization.

Does Community-Based Adaptation Enhance Social Capital? Evidence from Senegal and Mali

Climate change and extreme climate shocks pose a significant threat to resource-dependent rural communities. Successfully supporting households to anticipate and adapt to climate variability and shocks, as well as build long term climate resilience, is essential to facing these changes. Given the importance of social capital in facilitating collective action and adaptation, the development community has focused on bottom-up, participatory adaptation projects. This article explores the social capital impacts of a pilot community-based adaptation project in Senegal and Mali that aims to encourage inclusive decision making around public goods investments. The analysis uses both difference-in-differences and propensity score matching estimates to evaluate whether households that participated in the project realized enhanced social capital, as measured through participation in community development, and acts of reciprocity and community support. The findings indicate that engaging in the participatory process through the project increased the likelihood of future collective action and providing help to other community members in Mali.

Adaptive Reuse of Heritage Buildings for Sustainable Urban Regeneration: Two Case Studies from India

In the era of globalization, developing existing cities into smart cities while providing a higher quality of life to the citizens is one of the strategies in many countries. In the process, many traditional settlements and cultural heritage are being demolished without respecting their values. In fact, these heritage buildings could be easily re-used. However, a proper approach is essential in ensuring their relevance in urban regeneration projects. Undeniably, cultural heritage should be preserved with their values. One of the ways to do so is through adaptive re-use, i.e., reusing the existing building for contemporary use, making it a part of sustainable architecture. Appropriately, the reuse of heritage buildings or materials therein saves much of the embodied energy. This will help improve access to clean energy and encourage adoption of low-carbon energy assets. The concept of adaptive reuse of different buildings has been successfully implemented in many countries. This paper examines the issue of multifaceted challenges in adaptive reuse, emphasizing the need for informed decisions based on in-depth assessments. The paper seeks to understand the compatibility of new functions with the physical and historical integrity of heritage structures, the conservation of embodied energy inherent in these buildings, and the pivotal role of stakeholders in driving successful adaptive reuse projects. It employs a mixed-method approach using case studies, stakeholder surveys, and heritage building analyses to determine best reuse solutions. The study shows how adapting old buildings saves energy and the environment by comparing them to new buildings. It concludes revealing the current efforts to provide ways of such reuse of heritage buildings based on several sustainable benchmarks and valuable considerations.

What are the energy and greenhouse gas benefits of repurposing non-residential buildings into apartments?

This study examines the potential strategies for reducing embodied energy and greenhouse gas emissions through adaptive reuse of non-residential buildings for residential purposes, as compared to new construction of apartment buildings. Such an approach can address housing crises in urban areas with an abundance of underutilized non-residential buildings, promoting sustainable housing growth. A comprehensive assessment of repurposing in California reveals approximately 510 million m² of floor space across 230,000 non-residential buildings in the current building stock. The potential reduction in embodied energy and CO2eq emissions ranges from 0.14 to 1.4 billion GJ and 5.0–70 million metric tons for the state, respectively, contingent upon the percentage of repurposed floor space (10–100%) and adaptive reuse scenario (retaining structural components and façade or solely the structure). A repurposed building avoids about 56% of embodied energy, 34-48% of CO2 eq emissions, and 72% of materials by mass compared to building a new apartment building. However, various technical, financial, and regulatory challenges may hinder emissions reductions, necessitating proactive policy measures. Cities can potentially expedite the process by streamlining approvals for mixed-use adaptive reuse projects involving both commercial and residential spaces.

An adaptive projection BFGS method for nonconvex unconstrained optimization problems

An adaptive projection BFGS method for nonconvex unconstrained optimization problems

Acculturation and resilience of immigrant-origin youth: Do their school experiences reflect nonimmigrants' "native supremacy"?

The successful integration of immigrant-origin youth is a highly important issue for multiple stakeholders in many countries. It has important benefits both to countries of destination and countries of origin, as well as to immigrants and nonimmigrants. In this article, I examine immigrant-youth adaptation through the lens of a recently developed resilience model integrating acculturation and social psychological influences on adaptation. Who among immigrant-origin youth adapt well, academically, and socially, in the Greek school context? What is the role of acculturation in immigrant youth resilience? These questions are addressed using scientific evidence drawn from the Athena Studies of Resilient Adaptation (AStRA) project, a three-cohort, three-wave longitudinal project on immigrant-origin youth adaptation conducted in Greece, as well as from the international literature. Following an anti-racist research approach to understanding the AstRA findings, I will argue that the lived school experiences of immigrant-origin youth may be a reflection of societal-level xenophobic and anti-immigrant attitudes. Such systemic and structural racism is the key determinant of the difficulties they face in their adaptation. The findings presented reveal the need to promote an equitable and inclusive education that will be beneficial for all students promoting their well-being, and their sense of belonging to school and society.

Futuremaking in a disaster zone: Everyday climate change adaptation amongst Quechua women in the Peruvian Cordillera Blanca

The Peruvian Andes has experienced widely publicized, climate change induced glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which increasingly threaten the lives of thousands of the region's residents. However, the everyday adaptations of the most historically marginalized populations in the Andes—often Quechua women in highland communities—are frequently obscured by a singular focus on glacier and water management to prevent high-impact but infrequent GLOFs. This focus on glacier hazards downplays and renders invisible the ways that Quechua women actually adapt to climate change by labeling them 'highly vulnerable' despite a limited understanding of their daily lives. Through a case study in the Cordillera Blanca mountain range, this article advances a feminist framework of everyday adaptation called ‘futuremaking’ that challenges the current ice-and-water-focused paradigm of adaptation policy in glaciated regions. We draw on interviews with Quechua women, participant observation on adaptation planning teams, and informal expert interviews to advance the futuremaking framework, which prioritizes the everyday and future desires of women and households over technical adaptations that view people as vulnerable. Futuremaking is a feminist process of everyday adaptation in a disaster zone that relies on A) Prioritizing the everyday over the someday; B) Intergenerational well-being and community networks of care, and; C) Dynamic and embodied adaptations to uncertainty. We argue that futuremaking both challenges the efficacy of adaptation projects currently underway in the Andes and charts a path towards more transformative adaptation interventions by prioritizing capabilities and feminist networks of care over managing damage and disaster.

Operational Issues on Adaptive Protection of Microgrids Due to Cyber Attacks

This paper shows how false data injection attacks (FDIAs) affect adaptive projection in microgrids. Specifically, we implemented a directional over-current relay in the CIGRE low voltage benchmark system to carry out experiments to manipulate protection decisions via cyber-attacks. The aim of the newly proposed cyber-attack is to cause false relay tripping and unbalanced conditions in microgrid that can result in power outages and blackouts. The proposed study has been validated on commercial relays using a real-time digital simulator equipped with the IEC 61850 standard communication protocol. These results allow the power systems engineers to understand the cyber-physical interactions more closely and adapt their protection schemes accordingly.

NIR-IIb Fluorescence Molecular Tomography of Glioblastomas Based on Heterogeneous Mouse Models and Adaptive Projection Match Pursuit Method.

Fluorescence molecular tomography (FMT) using the second near-infrared window (NIR-II) fluorescence has been proved to outperform conventional FMT using the first near-infrared window (NIR-I) fluorescence. However, it was still a challenge to achieve a satisfactory reconstructed light source using NIR-II FMT as the NIR-IIa (1300-1400 nm) fluorescence in the NIR-II spectrum used in the previous NIR-II FMT study was still suffering from prominent absorption and scattering of tissue. A novel NIR-IIb (1500-1700 nm) FMT method was proposed and applied in the reconstruction of glioblastomas in animal models. Optical parameters that describe the effect of different tissue on the NIR-IIb photons were calculated to construct a light propagation model of NIR-IIb light to form the forward model. Besides, a novel adaptive projection matching pursuit (APMP) method was further adopted to accurately solve the inverse problem. Location error and Dice coefficient were used to evaluate the accuracy of reconstruction. Simulation experiments using single-source and dual-source and in vivo experiments were conducted to evaluate the reconstructed light source. Both simulation and in vivo experiments demonstrated that NIR-IIb FMT achieved reduced location error and improved shape similarity compared with NIR-IIa. NIR-IIb FMT of orthotopic mouse models further achieved a location error of 0.65 mm and a Dice coefficient of 0.56, which both outperformed NIR-IIa. The results demonstrated that NIR-IIb has better reconstruction performance for positioning accuracy and shape recovery. The inspiring results in this study demonstrate the effectiveness and advantages of NIR-IIb FMT in precise tumor positioning.

Circular building adaptability in adaptive reuse: multiple case studies in the Netherlands

Purpose The application of circular building adaptability (CBA) in adaptive reuse becomes an effective action for resource efficiency, long-lasting usability of the built environment and the sped-up transition to a circular economy (CE). This paper aims to explore to which extent CBA-related strategies are applied in adaptive reuse projects, considering enablers and obstacles. Design/methodology/approach A stepwise theory-practice-oriented approach was followed. Multiple-case studies of five circular adaptive reuse projects in The Netherlands were investigated, using archival research and in-depth interviews. A cross-case analysis of the findings was deductively conducted, to find and replicate common patterns. Findings The study revealed that configuration flexibility, product dismantlability and material reversibility were applied across the case studies, whereas functional convertibility and building maintainability were less applied. Low cost of material reuse, collaboration among team members and organisational motivation were frequently observed enabling factors. Lack of information, technical complexities, lack of circularity expertise and infeasibility of innovative circular solutions were frequently observed obstacles to applying CBA. Practical implications This paper provides practitioners with a set of CBA strategies that have been applied in the real world, facilitating the application of CBA in future adaptive reuse projects. Moreover, this set of strategies provides policymakers with tools for developing supportive regulations or amending existing regulations for facilitating CE through adaptive reuse. Originality/value This study provides empirical evidence on the application of CBA in different real-life contexts. It provides scholars and practitioners with a starting point for further developing guiding or decision-making tools for CBA in adaptive reuse.

Centering equity and sustainability in climate adaptation funding

Climate change poses a growing threat to the lives and livelihoods of more than three billion people living in highly vulnerable areas. Despite recent financing designated for climate adaptation, current support is only a fraction of what is needed and lags behind the accelerating pace of climate impacts. To achieve equitable and sustainable adaptation, we propose four evidence-based guidelines for funding and developing adaptation projects: uphold community autonomy, be transformative, avoid maladaptation, and integrate across sectors. Upholding community autonomy prioritizes bottom-up approaches that support local engagement and decision-making. Being transformative involves funding nonlinear proposals and developing novel funding mechanisms in order to shift away from incremental change. Avoiding maladaptation means ensuring that adaptation projects are proactive, flexible, and supportive of natural ecosystem services to prevent increasing vulnerability and exposure to climate impacts. Integrating across sectors involves addressing the intersections between human and environmental systems and using multiple sources of knowledge when developing projects. We illustrate these guidelines in action by exploring these principles in the context of adaptation to coastal hazards. By adopting these guidelines, funding for climate adaptation can support frontline communities facing the most severe consequences of climate change and address some of the underlying conditions that contribute to vulnerability, delivering broader societal benefits.

Opportunity knocks but just once: Impact of infrastructure investment decision on climate adaptation to flood events

Extreme natural disasters caused by climate change and socio-economic development, such as floods, are likely to occur more frequently and impose an increasing threat on the safety of people‘s lives and property around the world. The infrastructure investment of adaptation projects can effectively prevent and mitigate these climate impacted disaster risks, as well as reducing the catastrophic losses. In this paper, we propose an economic evaluation framework to incorporate risk preferences and investment timing for making climate adaptation. We use an extended loss distribution approach (LDA) to estimate the expected economic loss (EEL) of flood events with different levels, in which the Bayesian inference is integrated to estimate the parameters of loss severity distributions. The modeling framework is applied to a case study of flood risk management in Nanjing City, China. We find that the appropriate delay of investment timing can significantly increase the value of the adaptation project. The optimal investment timing is earlier, and the project value under optimal investment timing is higher, when the risk aversion coefficient of insurance company or the asset growth rate becomes higher. A lower discount rate or a lower investment cost will accelerate the optimal investment timing. Interestingly, we also find that the greater the difference between the discount rate and the asset growth rate, the higher the value of the adaptation project under the optimal investment timing. These findings are expected to provide useful information on flood disasters prevention for the investment decision of adaptation infrastructure which can be economically effective to integrate the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development.

Climate change adaptation policy and practice: Case study of the major cities in Poland

The paper critically evaluates the urban climate change adaptation policy and practise in Central Europe using Polish cities as an example. The study focused on local policy documents and a scoring system was elaborated and applied for their analysis with particular attention to ‘green’ adaptation concepts. The link between the time of adoption and the scores received by cities' Strategies and Programmes for Environmental Protection demonstrates innovation flow from science into urban policy. We revealed that many of the proposed measures in Urban Adaptation Plans represent rather mitigation than adaptation implying substantial knowledge gaps in differentiating between them. A portfolio of projects implemented in 2014–2020 within EU funding programmes and Participatory budget was compiled with further classification into ‘green’, ‘grey’, or ‘soft’. More than 80 % of the selected projects in each of the cities were classified as ‘green’, but only one studied city demonstrated an upward trend in the number and cumulative budget of the adaptation projects. The examined Polish cities, similarly to other Central and Eastern European ones, experiencing fast economic growth have featured a profound contraction of green areas over the last decades. Partially it might be compensated by local environmental programmes that promote application of nature-based solutions.

The problem of assessing the sustainability of adapted historic buildings with BREEAM certification using examples in Poland and Great Britain

ABSTRACT The aim of the article is to show the problematic issues of the BREEAM certification system, when assessing historic buildings from Poland and Great Britain. The research hypothesis is to analyse the disparities in the results of BREEAM for historic buildings, and to examine whether the criteria are adequate for a reliable assessment of the degree of sustainability in their adaptation. The first part of the article outlines the idea of sustainability and presents methods for assessing the degree of sustainability of buildings, and the main assumptions for BREEAM adaptation projects. Research methodology includes quantitative and qualitative research. The study involved statistical analysis. The scheme for adaptation projects was discussed. The second part of the study included a case study of four certified historic buildings from Poland and Great Britain. The results showed excessive generalisation and the favouring of individual categories of the BREEAM scheme. The authors pointed to disproportions and inconsistencies in the assessment of the degree of sustainability of objects, with regards to sustainability sectors. The possible exemplary solutions were presented, which include the modification of the BREEAM document, to assess in a more proper way the level of sustainable use of the architectural cultural heritage.

Three-dimensional measurement for specular reflection object based on adaptive fringe projection and phase measuring profilometry

ObjectiveUsing phase measuring profilometry (PMP) to measure the object with specular reflections is a very challenging task, a large deviation between the measured result and the actual data is caused by the highlights of the measured object surface. Therefore, a 3D measurement method for the object with a specular reflection based on adaptive fringe pattern projection (AFPP) is proposed in this paper. MethodsFirstly, a set of uniform grayscale images are projected to the measured object by a DLP projector. The gray level gradually decreases from 255 and stops when the number of saturated pixels in the camera image reaches 0. The masks of saturated pixels at each gray level are obtained. Secondly, the masks corresponding to two adjacent gray levels are compared respectively, and the optimal projection intensity of the camera image is obtained. Thirdly, the coordinates of the highlight pixels in the camera image are mapped to the projector image coordinate system, and the new fringe images are generated using the optimal projection intensity. Fourthly, the new fringe images are projected onto the measured object for 3D measurement. ResultsThe measurement experiments were implemented on the measured objects made of metal, plastic, and ceramic, respectively. Experiment results show that the proposed method can reduce the measurement deviation caused by the highlights and make the 3D reconstruction model more complete without additional cameras and hardware.

Discount Rate Selection for Investments in Climate Change Adaptation and Flood Risk Reduction Projects

The selection of an appropriate discount rate is a critical yet often neglected aspect of valuing flood protection and climate adaptation projects. We examine current discounting practices in flood risk management and climate adaptation literature and compare these practices with a proposed fair market value (FMV) discounting approach, in which we discount project cash flows based on their levels of systematic market risk, consistent with practice in the private sector. Using publicly available data, we demonstrate minimal correlation between flood risk–related cash flows and overall market returns, suggesting flooding-related cash flows are most appropriately discounted near the risk-free rate. We consider the example of a proposed storm surge barrier in Boston Harbor and compare prevailing public-sector discounting approaches with this FMV approach. Our results suggest prevailing discounting approaches systematically undervalue flood risk reduction benefits and climate adaptation investments relative to the private-sector valuation implied via the FMV approach.