Adaptive Cycle Model Research Articles

Shifted baselines: Using the adaptive cycle to assess the post-tsunami mangrove social-ecological system recovery in the Nicobar Islands.

The 2004 tsunami and coastal subsidence resulted in 97% mangrove loss in the Nicobar Islands (India), leading to major social-ecological change. We assessed how the Nicobar mangrove social-ecological system (SES) responded to the 2004 event using the adaptive cycle (AC) framework. We describe the changes across AC phases (collapse-Ω, reorganisation-α, growth-r, and conservation-K) concerning various capital types (natural, built, human, social), connectedness and resilience. The subsidence and tsunami triggered a rapid collapse (Ω) in the mangrove SES, particularly depleting natural and built capitals. Despite declines in social and human capital, some knowledge and skills were retained within Nicobari communities. We suggest that locally managed interventions involving mangrove restoration are critical to escape the poverty trap caused by resource insufficiency hindering growth. The AC model helps visualise and describe temporal changes, preparing for recovery challenges. This approach is relevant to SESs beyond Nicobar, offering insights for sites confronting similar social-ecological dynamics and challenges.

Measuring system resilience through a comparison of information- and flow-based network analyses

Quantifying the properties of complex, self-organizing systems is increasingly important for understanding the development and state of modern systems. Case studies have recommended sustainability frameworks predominately in literature, but little emphasis has been placed on methodological evaluation. Data availability is often an obstacle that constrains conventional flow-based network analysis, but a novel information-based technique (QtAC) developed by zu Castell and Schrenk overcomes these constraints by modelling interactions between agents as information transfers. This study compares the QtAC method to conventional flow analysis by applying both to the same 90-year dataset containing socio-economic data from the island of Samothraki, Greece. Resilience indicators, based on Ulanowicz’s ascendency analysis, are derived on both the information- and flow-based networks. We observe that the resulting dynamics of the information-based networks align closer with complex system dynamics as theorized by the adaptive cycle model. Additionally, we discuss how QtAC offers different interpretations of network indicators when compared to usual interpretations of flow analysis. Ultimately, QtAC is shown to provide an alternative for complex systems analysis if the data situation does not allow for conventional flow-analysis. Furthermore, we show that the combination of both approaches can yield valuable new insights.

Millennium of Resilience, Vulnerability and Sustainability at Rome, c. 200 BCE-800 CE

The contribution uses the four phases of growth, conservation, release, and reorganisation of the adaptive cycle model from resilience theory in a study of developments at Rome in the millennium from the late Republic through late antiquity. In addition, the study applies the concepts of vulnerability and sustainability to investigate responses to crises. The focus is on change in the size of the city of Rome, the relationship between the city and the hinterland, and how society tried to adapt to environmental, economic, political, and social challenges. It concludes that, in the end, the city of Rome proved resilient, and entered the medieval period still the largest city of the Latin world.

Analysis of the Construction of Resilient Governance System for Public Safety in Urban Communities in Jiangsu--Based on the Perspective of Adaptive Loop Modeling

Abstract As urbanization and informatization progress, human societies increasingly face unforeseeable public safety risks, necessitating a comprehensive governance system for early risk prevention. This paper introduces a model for community public safety resilience governance grounded in the adaptive cycle model and formulates research hypotheses. We derive a mathematical formula for calculating the safety disaster risk value using risk management theory, which aids in determining the resilience value and risk level of communities. The proposed governance model assesses community resilience through a four-faceted approach that encompasses natural disasters, accidents, public health events, and social security incidents. The public safety resilience of Community L in N city, Jiangsu Province, was evaluated using this model. Furthermore, it was determined that urban communities in NJ City, WX City, and XZ City had resilience governance scores of 77.655, 73.18, and 73.475, with scores exceeding 70 points. An analysis of 16 subject cities revealed that only five are currently in the renewal stage, representing an optimal state of high resilience and low risk. The remaining 11 cities face varying degrees of challenges. To prevent systemic decay, it is crucial to implement customized public safety governance strategies for different urban types.

Linking Up Bell Beakers in the Iberian Peninsula

Many studies in complexity theory employ agent-based models whose interactions can be expressed as networks. In such models, the pattern of interactions between actors is crucial, and the network topology that emerges from the raw data can be characterized through many metrics. One tool previously used in archaeology studies has the potential to deal with networks in social contexts at different scales of analysis: social network analysis (SNA). This discipline has been applied successfully in a wide range of archaeological problems, providing valuable insights and a different perspective. It also could be helpful to quantify concepts associated with social complexity, such as robustness or resilience. In this work, we propose some methodologic possibilities for consideration in the phase definition of the adaptive cycle model (ACM), using SNA tools. To illustrate the process, we will present a case study from the Copper Age in the Iberian Peninsula: the Bell Beaker phase.

Sustainable urban development based on an adaptive cycle model: A coupled social and ecological land use development model

With the emphasis of modern societal development on the ecological environment, urban environmental issues have been lessened. However, green space occupies a significant amount of land resources, leading to more prominent human-land conflicts in some areas, thus creating serious social issues that urgently require solutions. As a result, social and ecological factors must be integrated into urban sustainability planning. Using the Chinese city of Fuzhou as an example, this study constructed an adaptive cycle model framework for sustainable urban development based on adaptive cycle theory by coordinating three core characteristic attributes of sustainable urban development: potential (urban development potential), connectedness (conflicting land use), and resilience (suitability for sustainable development). This framework was used to identify the development stages (exploitation, conservation, release, reorganization) of different areas in the city. Finally, the ecological value of the landscape created by sustainable development was verified through a multi-scenario simulation. The results were as follows: 1) land expansion under the constraints of the sustainable development model had higher ecological value and could effectively mitigate conflicts in urban land use while balancing socio-ecological contradictions during urban development; 2) the model effects varied across urban areas in different stages of development; and 3) our proposed sustainable development planning pathway based on the adaptive cycle model divided land use into eight categories and proposed targeted development measures based on zoning characteristics. This study can effectively alleviate the contradiction of sustainability between urban social and ecological development. It can be used as a policy tool for managing land assessment and zoning during future urban development and land use.

Evolution of Urban Resilience from a Multiscale Perspective: Evidence from Five Provinces in Northwest China

As a new idea of urban risk management, building resilient cities with the ability to resist, eliminate, and adapt to uncertain risks is of great importance to mitigate risk impacts and promote sustainable urban development. Based on the adaptive cycle model and the characteristics of an urban system, this study analyzes the resilience levels of cities, urban agglomerations, and provinces and their adaptive stages. The results show that (1) the comprehensive resilience of cities in the five provinces of northwest China is on the rise and that the differences between cities are gradually narrowing. The development stages of the urban adaptive cycle can be divided into six stages: the rapid exploitation stage, exploitation-conservation stage, stable conservation stage, conservation-release stage, development reorganization stage, and reorganization-exploitation stage. (2) The spatial distribution of the comprehensive resilience of urban agglomerations is “high in the southeast and low in the northwest,” and the development stage of the adaptive cycle is consistent with its central city or central region. (3) The level of resilience varies greatly among provinces, and the development stage of the adaptive cycle is equivalent to the average level of all cities in the province and is closely related to their respective development forces and urban problems. These findings can provide reference for policymakers to formulate scientific resilience building strategies to achieve regional sustainable development.

Study on Urban Resilience from the Perspective of the Complex Adaptive System Theory: A Case Study of the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration.

In the context of global environmental change and continuous urbanization, enhancing urban resilience is an important way to improve urban emergency management capacity and achieve sustainable development of urban systems. It is of great significance to clarify the mechanisms and effects of urban resilience and carry out resilience measurement to improve the level of urban system resilience and alleviate the pressure of environmental disturbances on the stable operation of urban systems. As an important part of the “Belt and Road” Initiative and one of the few leading economic regions in western China, promoting the high-quality development of the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration is of profound significance for strengthening ethnic unity and stabilizing the northwest and southwest regions. Based on the complex adaptive system (CAS) theory and the adaptive cycle model, this study understands urban resilience as the comprehensive result of urban system stability, self-organization, learning adaptability and transformability, constructs a multi-level open index evaluation system, and analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of urban resilience of the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration from the proposed design to the formal planning in 2010–2017. The findings are as follows: (1) Research on the urban resilience of the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration verifies the applicability of the evolutionary urban resilience analysis framework and makes preliminary findings on urban resilience based on CAS theory, which provide a certain theoretical reference for the research on the spatio-temporal evolution of urban resilience. (2) From 2010 to 2017, significant differences are observed between various urban attributes. Resilience exhibits an overall upward trend, and spatial evolution changes from a double core (Lanzhou and Xining) to three cores (Lanzhou, Xining and Haidong) and polycentric modes. (3) Based on urban resilience characteristics and an urban system adaptability cycle model, this paper divides the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration cities into four types (exploitation–reorganization, conservation–release, conservation–exploitation and exploitation), and proposes corresponding adaptive management countermeasures. These could be adopted as a reference to promote the high-quality development of the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration.

Planning for small town reorientation: Key policy choices within external support

According to the international literature, small towns are most likely to reorient following structural change if they are rich in natural or built amenity, accessible to large urban areas and have local capacity for change. However, not all places have these characteristics. Focusing on places less blessed with these features, this paper develops a conceptualisation that extends beyond these simplistic empirical regularities/characteristics and enhances understanding of the processes underlying small town change. Drawing on two cases from both the UK and New Zealand, key drivers for small town reorientation are explored, their meaning illustrated in terms of the likelihood of reorientation of the towns’ development trajectory and the key policy choices emerging are highlighted. Whilst small town reorientation is inherently unpredictable, positive forces for change are likely to occur within most small towns. Informed by the adaptive cycle model and how this links to observed case realities, the findings suggest the need for an emergent strategic approach that focuses on supporting a local rediscovery/re-imagination of potential, local adaptive processes of emergence and connectivity as it emerges. Consistent with recent research into placeleadership and place-based revival, there is a need for public support to encourage positive local activity and the development of policies that are flexible to the changing place-based opportunities/synergies that emerge.

Measuring the Evolution of Urban Resilience Based on the Exposure–Connectedness–Potential (ECP) Approach: A Case Study of Shenyang City, China

Resilience is a new path to express and enhance urban sustainability. Cities suffer from natural shocks and human-made disturbances due to rapid urbanization and global climate change. The construction of an urban resilient developmental environment is restricted by these factors. Strengthening the comprehensive evaluation of resilience is conducive to identifying high-risk areas in cities, guiding regional risk prevention, and providing a scientific basis for differentiated strategies for urban resilience governance. For this study, taking Shenyang city as a case study, the resilience index system was constructed as an ECP (“exposure”, “connectedness”, and “potential”) framework, and the adaptive cycle model was introduced into the resilience assessment framework. This model not only comprehensively considers the relationship between exposure and potential but also helps to focus on the temporal and spatial dynamics of urban resilience. The results show that the exposed indicators have experienced three spatial evolution stages, including single-center circle expansion, multicenter clustering, and multicenter expansion. The potential index increased radially from the downtown area to the outer suburbs, and the low-value area presented a multicenter pattern. The spatial agglomeration of connectivity indicators gradually weakened. The results reflect the fact that the resilience level of the downtown area has been improved and the resilience of the outer expansion area has declined due to urban construction. The multicenter cluster pattern is conducive to the balance of resilience levels. In terms of the adaptive cycle phases of urban resilience, the first ring has gone through three phases: exploitation (r), conservation (K), and release (Ω). The second and third rings have gradually shifted from the exploitation (r) phase to the conservation (K) phase. The fourth ring has entered the exploitation (r) phase from the reorganization (ɑ) phase. The fifth ring and its surrounding areas are in the reorganization (ɑ) phase. The results provide specific spatial guidance for implementing resilient urban planning and realizing sustainable urban development.

A literature review of gratitude, parent–child relationships, and well-being in children

Positive psychology has highlighted the importance of personal positive qualities such as gratitude for human thriving. Reviews of research on gratitude are predominantly based on work with adults. We address this gap by considering the familial roots and well-being implications of gratitude in children. We conducted two systematic reviews examining children’s gratitude as it relates to parent–child relationships (N = 10) and children’s gratitude and well-being (N = 38). Children’s gratitude was higher when parents modeled gratitude, there was a more secure parent–child attachment, and parents employed more supportive, autonomy granting, and warm parenting. These findings align with attachment theory, social learning and emotion socialization theories, and the find-remind-and-bind theory. Additionally, children’s gratitude was positively related to greater life satisfaction, positive affect, and mental well-being in cross-sectional and intervention studies. These findings provide some support for the broaden-and-build theory, the adaptive cycle model, and the schematic hypothesis. The reviewed theoretical frameworks and empirical findings formed the basis of our proposed model whereby children’s gratitude is posited to mediate the relation between parent–child relationship factors and children’s well-being. Further, we identified several testable mechanisms that might explain why gratitude is related to well-being. Our proposed model is an important contribution to the current literature because it provides a novel, overarching synthesis of existing work on children’s gratitude that is intended to be a framework for future research to test potential mechanisms relevant to children’s gratitude development and well-being outcomes.

Evolution of a social dynamic in a changing landscape: the case of Argos (Argolis, Greece) in the Mycenaean period

Argos in the Mycenaean period consists of a real enigma. Compared to its neighbours, amongst others Mycenae, Tiryns and Midea, Argos, after being a flourishing center in the Middle Helladic period, lost of it’s importance until the End of the Mycenaean palatial period, while maintaining a continuous occupation. During the transitional phase (MH III/LH I), and despite the fact that some parts of the argiv settlement continues to grow, as shown in particular by the work undertaken on the fortified acropolis of the Aspis, Argos, will experience a gradual decline as shown in particular through the abandonment of certain residential areas and the relocation of some population groups within and probably beyond its borders. According to one possible scenario, a group of people moved, at the very beginning of MH III, from Argos to Mycenae participating in the spectacular rise of Mycenae from the late MH period and onwards.Through this communication, we will first try to demonstrate, based on the archaeological reality, the status of Argos from the transitional phase (MH III/LH I) and during the LH period within the organization of the Argolis. In a second step, we will try to define the causes that influenced the evolution of this status. We will demonstrate how a series of natural disasters and in particular the eruption of Thera may have influenced the political, economic and social geography of the Argolis to the detriment of Argos. Based on the archaeological discoveries and the Adaptive Cycle (AC) model, we will show how some sites or parts of the Argolis functioned according to a positive/negative system throughout the protohistoric periods.

Modelling tourism resilience in small island states: a tale of two countries

The rising incidence and consequences of natural disasters, global economic crises, climate change, and socio-political upheavals have raised interest in resilience, particularly in small island economies. Their small size and high tourism-dependency make these small island states more vulnerable to such disruptions. Hence, understanding resilience or adaptive capacity to withstand shocks is fundamental to their sustainable development. The emerging literature uses the Adaptive Cycle Model to qualitatively analyse resilience through the evolution of tourism destinations. Nevertheless, the absence of quantitative studies using the Adaptive Cycle Model makes it a daunting task to adequately advise policymakers about the scope and scale of intervention necessary to facilitate the rebuilding of a stronger tourism industry. We, therefore, pioneer the use of Markov Switching Autoregressive Model to test the model’s applicability using four decades of data on tourist arrivals in two Caribbean destinations, Barbados and Grenada. The results reveal untapped opportunities for transformation and regeneration in both countries’ tourism industries, but highlight sharp contrast in their resilience capability. Grenada exhibits greater resilience as its adverse shocks, though deeper, are relatively transitory, while Barbados despite experiencing fewer external shocks faces prolonged repercussions from global recessions. For small islands, we conclude that the factors impacting lower resilience are the industry’s management deficiencies, inadequate cohesion among stakeholders, and lack of innovation. Overall, the findings present a modelling framework for tourism-dependent economies to determine how quickly they recover from major stress events, the associated strategies necessary to strengthen tourism resilience, and the potential to innovate in the tourism industry.

Investigating community adaptability and resilience in Urban Kampung, study case: Water and sanitation infrastructure of Kampung Muka, North Jakarta

Urban kampung is an urban settlement with a community that indicates the characteristics of “vulnerability” and adaptability at the same time. The vulnerabilities of their existence rely from internal and external pressures which consist of chronic stresses (the community’s limitations to fulfil their daily needs) and acute shocks (sudden threats that emerges from outside the community). Simultaneously their vulnerabilities are strengthened by community-based adaptations as a respond of kampung residents towards these pressures. This paper discusses spatial adaptations done by residents of Kampung Muka, North Jakarta as a respond to limitation of clean water provision and sanitation facilities. We utilize qualitative methods consist of site observation along with an interview with the locals. We employ Resilience Assessment as a guiding tool to investigate vulnerabilities, adaptations, and resilience of urban kampung. This guide incorporates the adaptive cycle model to study how the system changes over time, following a pattern of four phases which incorporate both long-term and short-term challenges in the context of water infrastructure from the historical and current point of view. Adaptive capacity shown in urban kampung indicates potential resilience in their community, which could be developed and implemented in a larger urban scale.

Assessing the historical adaptive cycles of an urban social-ecological system and its potential future resilience: the case of Xochimilco, Mexico City

As the bulk of the world’s population becomes urban, maintaining urban ecosystem services for environmental and social well-being in cities is crucial. According to resilience theory, maintaining such services requires for a complex adaptive systems perspective that helps in identifying key elements and dynamics behind cross-scale social-ecological interactions. In this context, the objective of this article is to use a resilience “lens” to problematize the imminent loss of an urban wetland using the adaptive cycle model as a heuristic tool. Our case study focuses on the Xochimilco wetland, located in the southern periphery of Mexico City. Xochimilco is characterized by the presence of a complex system of raised bed wetland agriculture (the chinampa system), which was established over 1000 years ago; currently, despite having a recognized cultural and environmental value, it is threatened by increasing urban sprawl, over-exploitation of the aquifer, and water contamination. By conducting a historical analysis of the Xochimilco social-ecological system, we assess how it has gone through phases of the adaptive cycle. As a result, we identify critical elements of the system’s historically maintained resilience and main drivers of system change. From such findings, we present some insights on the possibilities of maintaining the system’s resilience and guidance for future management strategies for the Xochimilco wetland. Lastly, we reflect on the scope and limitations of using a resilience-based approach and an adaptive cycle analysis for addressing urban sustainability problems, especially in cities in the Global South.

Sustainable Development of Industry-Environmental System Based on Resilience Perspective.

The contradiction between industrial development and ecological environment pressure has been becoming progressively severe. Under this circumstance, more attention has been paid to the balance between industrial economic development and environmental deterioration and resource consumption. Thus, this study takes the development of industry and ecological environment change as an interactive system consideration, and comprehensively evaluates the changes of the industrial–environment system on resilience perspective with innovation. Accordingly, this paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation model. The Environmental Performance Index (EPI) and Industrial Structure Entropy (ISE) were applied to analyze the current environment pressure and industrial conditions. Then, the catastrophe theory was used to evaluate the reasonably established index system for the impact of various factors in the industrial–environment system on the resilience change. Next, the adaptive cycle model was used to analyze the evaluation results and reveals the dynamic change law of the system in the resilience range. Finally, Chengdu was selected as the research area to verify the validity of the whole study. It was found that the resilient change process of Chengdu industry–environmental system accord with the four-stage theory of adaptive cycle model. The resilient level of the city was also improved during the cycle. The result of the study can be useful to future plans and decisions. What is more, understanding the characteristics of each stage will be helpful to determine the reasonable implementation time of each key factor and improve its feedback ability.

Economic Resilience of German Lignite Regions in Transition

This paper recalls the development of the German lignite regions Rhineland and Lusatia since 1945 to allow for a better understanding of their situation in 2019. We analyze their economic resilience, defined as adaptive capacity, using Holling’s adaptive cycle model. We find that the Rhineland is currently in the conservation phase, while Lusatia experiences a reorganization phase following the economic shock of the German reunification. Key policy recommendations for the upcoming coal phase-out are to foster innovation within the Rhineland’s infrastructures to avoid overconnection, and to expand digital and transportation infrastructure in Lusatia so that the structurally weak region can enter the exploitation phase. Future policymaking should take into consideration the differences between the two regions in order to enable a just and timely transition during which lasting adaptive capacity can be built.

Do adaptive cycles of floodplain vegetation response to inundation differ among vegetation communities?

AbstractFlooding is a key driver of floodplain vegetation productivity. Adaptive cycles provide a model for examining the productivity of floodplain vegetation communities in response to hydrology. Accordingly, floodplain inundation drives vegetation productivity responses through an adaptive cycle of wetting (exploitation phase), wet (conservation phase), drying (release phase), and dry (reorganization phase). We examined changes in the productivity of four floodplain vegetation communities (lignum, coolibah, grass, and poplar box) through the four phases of an adaptive cycle and explore the various strategies used by these vegetation communities to cope with variation in water availability. All four vegetation communities showed significant differences in productivity, as indicated by changes in the normalized difference vegetation index between the adaptive cycle phases. Differences were evident in the total area of vegetation that showed a productivity response, the quality or the vigour of the response, the trajectory of change overtime (i.e., towards higher or lower productivity), and the probability of change. Although the four vegetation communities exhibited response patterns in relation to flooding and drying that fit the adaptive cycle model, differences were evident in the timing of transitions between the four phases and the duration spent in those phases for each vegetation community. Poplar box and coolibah communities showed a higher productivity response during the drying or release phase. By comparison, the highest productivity response for the grassland and lignum shrubland was observed during the wetting or exploitation phase. Overall, the results showed that the four vegetation communities are sensitive to the degree of wetting at different phases in the adaptive cycle. Knowledge of floodplain vegetation response in each phase of an adaptive cycle will enable better management of floodplains, as management activities can be tailored to adaptive phase patterns associated with each community.

Socio-ecological resilience and language dynamics: An adaptive cycle model of long-term language change

Socio-ecological resilience and language dynamics: An adaptive cycle model of long-term language change

Dynamics and Resilience of Community Development: Case Studies by Using the Adaptive Cycle Model

Dynamics and Resilience of Community Development: Case Studies by Using the Adaptive Cycle Model