Abstract
This paper recalls the development of the German lignite regions Rhineland and Lusatia since 1945 to allow for a better understanding of their situation in 2019. We analyze their economic resilience, defined as adaptive capacity, using Holling’s adaptive cycle model. We find that the Rhineland is currently in the conservation phase, while Lusatia experiences a reorganization phase following the economic shock of the German reunification. Key policy recommendations for the upcoming coal phase-out are to foster innovation within the Rhineland’s infrastructures to avoid overconnection, and to expand digital and transportation infrastructure in Lusatia so that the structurally weak region can enter the exploitation phase. Future policymaking should take into consideration the differences between the two regions in order to enable a just and timely transition during which lasting adaptive capacity can be built.
Highlights
A global decline of the use of fossil fuels is crucial for reaching the 1.5 ◦ C goal of the Paris climate agreement
The end of World War II marked the beginning of a reorganization phase, which according to the adaptive cycle model (AC) is characterized by an increasing level of resilience, and high uncertainty
Since the end of World War II, the regional economy of the Rhineland appears to have experienced three out of four phases of the cycle and progressed to a phase of conservation
Summary
A global decline of the use of fossil fuels is crucial for reaching the 1.5 ◦ C goal of the Paris climate agreement. Literature has put an increasing focus on the just transition towards sustainable social-ecological systems [2,3,4,5] In this context, the concept of resilience, especially the evolutionary perspective using the adaptive cycle model (AC) [6], has inspired useful insights on how regional economies withstand major disturbances [7,8]. The concept of resilience, especially the evolutionary perspective using the adaptive cycle model (AC) [6], has inspired useful insights on how regional economies withstand major disturbances [7,8] We use this concept to address the situation of the two major German lignite mining regions that are currently undergoing sustainability transitions: the Rhineland in the western German state of North-Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), and Lusatia in eastern Germany in the former German. As an attempt to comply with the Paris Agreement as well as a reaction to public opinion, the German federal government implemented a commission for growth, structural change, and employment (the so-called “coal commission”) in 2018 with the mandate to develop a roadmap for the phase-out of coal, including
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