Adaptive Capacity Index Research Articles

Size does matter: City scale and the asymmetries of climate change adaptation in three coastal towns

Globally, it is smaller urban settlements that are growing most rapidly, are most constrained in terms of adaptive capacity but increasingly looked to for delivering local urban resilience. Data from three smaller coastal cities and their wider regional governance systems in Florida, US; West Sussex, UK and São Paulo, Brazil are used to compare the influence of scale and sector on city adaptive capacity. These tensions are described through the lens of the Adaptive Capacity Index (ACI) approach. The ACI is built from structuration theory and presents an alternative to social-ecological systems framing of analysis on adaptation. Structuration articulates the interaction of agency and structure and the intervening role played by institutions on information flow, in shaping adaptive capacity and outcomes. The ACI approach reveals inequalities in adaptive capacity to be greater across scale than across government, private and civil society sector capacity in each study area. This has implications for adaptation research both by reinforcing the importance of scale and demonstrating the utility of structuration theory as a framework for understanding the social dynamics underpinning adaptive capacity; and policy relevance, in particular considering the redistribution of decision-making power across scale and/or compensatory mechanisms, especially for lower scale actors, who increasingly carry the costs for enacting resilience planning in cities.

Climate Variability: Attributes and Indicators of Adaptive Capacity in Semi-Arid Tharaka Sub-County, Kenya

This study assessed the state of adaptive capacity in four agro-ecological zones of Tharaka sub-county, Kenya. The study utilized two data sets: household survey and key informants. At total of 326 household respondents across four agro-ecological zones; and 24 key informants from public and private sectors were sampled. A chi-square test was used to test the independence of attributes of adaptive capacity-flexibility and access to resources. It was established that the state of adaptive capacity is reflected in households’ cropping and livelihood diversification; and cultivation of drought tolerant crops. Institutions are also involved in support programs such as distribution of relief food and planting seeds, infrastructural support of irrigation and rainwater harvesting. There is need for climate science, practitioners and community interaction to scaled-up communication of best optimal adaptation practices that are risk averse to climate variability.

An Integrated Framework to Analyze Local Decision Making and Adaptation to Sea Level Rise in Coastal Regions in Selsey (UK), Broward County (USA), and Santos (Brazil)

One of the clear signals of the ongoing climate change is sea level rise (SLR). Normal oceanic tides superimposed on a rising sea level and coastal flooding will affect many coastal communities. An international collaboration among Brazil, the United Kingdom, and the United States was designed to evaluate local decision making processes and to open space for local urban managers to reflect on possible actions toward adaption to sea level rise given the historical constraints imposed by administrative and institutional structures. This project focused on the processes that shape adaptation of three coastal communities in three countries. It worked jointly with these communities in defining the problem, examining risks, and understanding the benefits and obstacles that may hinder implementation of adaptation options. The framework was co-designed by an interdisciplinary team that incorporated social and natural scientists from the three countries, including local government officials. The study addressed 1) evaluation of adaptive capacity through participant surveys and 2) physical and cost impact simulations using geospatial models of the built infrastructure and implementation of adaptation options under different hazard scenarios, including 50 and 100-year sea level rise projections and severe storms. Based on the surveys’ results, there is a clear sense of the awareness of each community of the risk of floods due to intense storms, and of the usefulness of engaging early in a process that promotes the understanding of risks, impacts, and costs. A majority of workshop participants prioritized pursuing physical and green infrastructure actions now or within coming years or decades. A positive common aspect of the three sites was the commitment shown by the stakeholders in taking part in the process and evaluating which adaptation measures could be more effective in their cities. While in the US and UK structural solutions and voluntary buyouts were prioritized for the future, Brazil prioritized structural solutions and ecosystems restoration and not voluntary buyouts. All of these are choices to increase resiliency against sea level rise that have a high benefit-cost ratio. The Adaptive Capacity Index (ACI) results illustrate barriers to adaptation action, including technical, economic and political issues that reveal inequalities in adaptive capacity among case studies.

Characterizing Vulnerability of Crop-Based Rural Systems to Climate Change and Variability: Agro-Ecology Specific Empirical Evidence from the Dabus Watershed, North-West Ethiopia

Climate change is impacting climate sensitive rural livelihood systems. Exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of agricultural livelihoods to climate variability and change differ across agro-ecologies and these pose a challenge to climate resilient development strategy. This study assesses agro-ecology specific vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change and variability in the Dabus Watershed (North-west Ethiopia), based on a survey of 734 farm households complemented with focus group discussion and key informant interviews. Recognizing the physiographic and climatic diversity that exists across agro-ecologies in the study area, Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) framed within the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability framework (LVI-IPCC) is adapted to assess agro-ecology specific vulnerability in two local agro-ecologies, namely wet lowland and dry lowland. For each agro-ecology, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity indices as well as LVI-IPCC vulnerability score was calculated. The result shows that the dry lowland agro-ecology has a relatively higher exposure and sensitivity to climate stresses with a comparatively limited adaptive capability. On the other hand, the wet lowland agro-ecology exhibits intermediate vulnerability with a relatively lower perceived exposure and higher adaptive capacity. Higher exposure relative to adaptive capacity resulted in a positive LVI-IPCC score in the dry lowland agro-ecology and positioned it in more vulnerable level than the wet lowland. A higher adaptive capacity relative to exposure unveils a negative LVI-IPCC score for the wet lowland agro-ecology and positioned it in a moderate vulnerability category. In line with the findings, there is a need to set agro-ecology specific priorities for intervention that is most needed to cop up with the effects of climate variability and change in each agro-ecology. Climate risk exposure levels can be reduced through timely provision of climate specific information and early warning systems aimed at enhancing preparedness of farm households to extreme events. It is also crucial to expand availability of infrastructural facilities such as market, health services, and veterinary services so as to enhance adaptive capacity. Supporting alternative livelihood options and enhancing water harvesting practices for supplementary irrigation also call policy attention.

Assessment of adaptive capacity to saltwater intrusion in the context of climate change in Dong Nai province to 2030

This study aimed to evaluate the adaptive capacity (AC) to saltwater intrusion (SI) in Dong Nai province up to 2030 via 20 indicators. The research scope included 57 wards in Bien Hoa city, Long Thanh, and Nhon Trach districts where have been facing the SI. Results showed that in 2014, nearly 90 % of investigated wards have AC indices in the range of medium-low level, distributed in Bien Hoa (30), Long Thanh (15), and Nhon Trach (6). Forecasts to 2020 and 2030, the local AC indices to saltwater intrusion are increased: the mentioned number of 90 % is gone down to about 88 % and 60 % in 2020 and 2030, respectively. Indicators need taken into concern to improve the local AC include: financial (budget, GDP), policy (support for people to cope with SI and climate change), agriculture (salt-tolerant seeds), aquaculture (brackish and saline water aquaculture), irrigation work (irrigation, SI prevention system), water storage, health, and education. Overall, in the period of 2014–2030, the AC of the investigated area has increased over the years, but most at the medium – low level. This is the challenge for governments and communities in responding to SI in the context of climate change.

Assessing changes in saltwater intrusion in main rivers of Dong Nai province and the adaptive capacity of the communities

Saltwater intrusion, which is a natural process, is strongly influenced by climate change, and almost negatively affects the lives and livelihoods of communities. This work aims at assessing changes in saltwater intrusion in main rivers located in Dong Nai province. The results indicated that Long Thanh and Nhon Trach districts have been affected by saltwater intrusion with the highest salinity concentrations of about 26-28 ‰. The salinity level during the dry season is higher than that in the rainy one and the salinity boundaries of 1 ‰ and 4 ‰ gradually extend towards inland water. Besides, adaptive capacity (AC) to saltwater intrusion in Bien Hoa city, Long Thanh and Nhon Trach districts was surveyed and assessed by the AC indices. By assessing AC of local government and communities against 19 criteria, Nhon Trach district showed its high AC meanwhile AC of Long Thanh and other districts were moderate and low, respectively. This research also indicates limitations of each locality, an important basis for proposing solutions to improve AC to saltwater intrusion for the communities.

INCIDENCIA DE DOS MEDIDAS DIFERENTES DE POBREZA EN LA ESTIMACIÓN DE LA CAPACIDAD ADAPTATIVA DE COMUNIDADES LOCALES UBICADAS EN ÁREAS MARINAS PROTEGIDAS: COMUNIDAD DE BARÚ, BOLÍVAR

This study proposes a measurement for the adaptive capacity of local communities before external perturbations and its relationship with the presence of marine protected areas. This measurement is based on an Index of Adaptive Capacity, previously proposed, which is made up of three comprehensive and complementary dimensions that capture characteristics of the communities using indicators: i) socioeconomic, ii) institutional, and iii) social-ecological. One of the characteristics that most affect adaptive capacity of local communities is their poverty level; the decision about the measurement for poverty becomes therefore in a very important one. Two measurements widely used are the index of Unsatisfied Basic Needs (UBN) and the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI). UBN has been used in Colombia since 1978 and more recently MPI is being used and is gaining acceptance. In this study, this two approaches to poverty are included, estimated and evaluated in the estimation of the index of adaptive capacity. A survey including 264 households is carried out in the village of Barú (Bolívar, Colombia) from March to April, 2014. Results show that this community exhibits a moderate adaptive capacity and that poverty, dependence on natural resources and limited knowledge about natural environment are the most important constraints. Even though results using UBN and MPI are similar, the latter provides a more comprehensive view in the identification of factors associated with poverty and means to combat it; for this reason, it is recommended to include this approach in the measurement of adaptive capacity. Finally, understanding the dimensions of the index of adaptive capacity for the community of Barú allows the identification of elements that constraint or enhance its capabilities to face future disturbances, given the relationship with the National Natural Park Corales del Rosario y San Bernardo PNN CRSB.

Storm surge vulnerability assessment of Saurashtra coast, Gujarat, using GIS techniques

The coastal stretch of Saurashtra, Gujarat, is seriously threatened by storm surges. Hence, assessing the preparedness to storm surge impacts is a major task in coastal disaster management where identification of relative vulnerability of coastal stretches is a prime concern. The aim of this study is to assess coastal vulnerability related to storm surge events along the coastal talukas of Saurashtra coast, by analyzing physical features and demographic variables using Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques. Vulnerability of a taluka is defined in terms of its exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We calculated vulnerability of Exposure Index, Sensitivity Index, and Adaptive Capacity Index separately in ArcMap s/w, and the vulnerability map of different indices in the study region was drawn. The Total Vulnerability Index (TVI) is prepared by integrating the above index. The TVI map shows that Kalyanpur, Porbandar, and Talaja talukas are highly vulnerable in comparison with other talukas as they have large area under low-lying, high sensitivity value, and low adaptive capacity value. On the other hand, Diu and Maliya are lower vulnerable due to the presence of rocky/cliffy coast, sand dune, small coastal length and located in elevated region although there exists high population density and built-up area. Our research finding will assist coastal disaster managers and decision makers to plan appropriate measures to minimize the losses due to storm surge impacts.

Unravelling local adaptive capacity to climate change in the Bolivian Amazon: the interlinkages between assets, conservation and markets

This paper examines household adaptive capacity to deal with climatic change among the Tsimane’, an indigenous society of the Bolivian Amazon, and explores how exposure to conservation policies and access to markets shape such capacity. We surveyed Tsimane’ adults (77 men and 34 women) living in four communities with different accessibility to the regional markets. The four communities were located in indigenous territories, but two of them overlapped with a co-managed biosphere reserve. We compared households’ capacity for adaptation through indicators of access to social, financial and natural assets, entrepreneurial skills and human resources. We also assessed how conservation and markets condition such capacity. Our results show that, across communities, households clustered in four groups with differentiated adaptive capacity profiles: commoners typically participating in community meetings, vulnerable characterized by low shares of adaptive capacity indicators, leaders typically holding community positions, and subsidized mostly relying in government remittances. Overlap with the biosphere reserve was significantly associated with the adaptive capacity profile of vulnerable households. In contrast, access to markets does not seem to be related to household adaptive capacity. We discuss relevant behavioral and structural factors for current adaptation to climatic changes and priority measures to foster local adaptive capacity in indigenous territories overlapping with protected areas.

Applying an index of adaptive capacity to climate change in north-western Victoria, Australia:

Climate change calls for strategic planning that builds resilience in vulnerable areas to manage the associated risks. This paper discusses how adaptive various communities and industries are to climate change in the North West of Victoria (also known as the Victorian wheatbelt), Australia. Indicators of adaptive ability for communities and industries, and the importance of key drivers like government policies, expert advice and empirical evidence of developing this capacity are identified. It also incorporates input from key regional groups as well as current knowledge on adaptability of regional communities to climate change across three major themes: socio-cultural, economic, institutional/infrastructure. Each of these major themes has associated indicators, which in turn have an individual suite of measures, albeit all contributing to the overall adaptive capacity and spatial variability of these capacities. A Geographic Information System is used to collect and analyse the data and spatially represent the indicators and indices. Workshop participants used their expert-judgment to assess and weight indicators, measures and themes. The stakeholders participatory assessment, the quantification of diversified data and interests and the importance of multiple policy outcomes make the findings locally relevant. We find that capacity and preparedness to adapt to climate change varies substantially across communities and different parts of the grains industry.

Mapping vulnerability to multiple hazards in the savannah Ecosystem in Ghana

The interior savannah ecosystem in Ghana is subjected to a number of hazards, including droughts, windstorms, high temperatures and heavy rainfall. The frequency and intensity of these hazards are projected to increase during the twenty-first century as a result of climate variability and change. Vulnerabilities to these hazards vary, both spatially and temporally, due to differences in susceptibilities and adaptive capacities. Many mapping exercises in Ghana have considered the impacts of single hazards on single sectors, particularly agriculture. But the hazards often occur concurrently or alternately and have varying degrees of impacts on different sectors. The impacts also interact. These interactions make mapping of the vulnerabilities of multiple sectors to multiple hazards imperative. This paper presents an analysis of the spatial dimension of vulnerabilities by mapping vulnerability of sectors that support livelihood activities at a single point in time, using the Upper East Region of Ghana as a case study. Data collected to develop the maps were largely quantitative and from secondary sources. Other data drew on fieldwork undertaken in the region from July to September 2013. Quantitative values were assigned to qualitative categorical data as the mapping process is necessarily quantitative. Data were divided into susceptibility and adaptive capacity indicators and mapped in ArcGIS 10.2 using weighted linear sum aggregation. Agriculture was found to be the most vulnerable sector in all districts of the Upper East Region and experienced the greatest shocks from all hazards. Although all districts were vulnerable, the Talensi, Nabdam, Garu-Temapane and Kassena-Nankana West Districts were most vulnerable. Findings highlight the need for more targeted interventions to build adaptive capacity in light of the spatial distributions of vulnerabilities to hazards across sectors.

Adaptive Capacity in Community Forest Management: A Systematic Review of Studies in East Asia.

This study investigated the indicators of adaptive capacity along with disturbances in community forest management systems in the East Asian countries, China, Japan and South Korea. Although these countries have centuries-old traditions of community-based forest management, they have been less researched in light of adaptive capacity for resilient social-ecological systems. Recent social and ecological disturbances bring about new challenges and/or opportunities to the capacity of forest related communities to adapt to rapidly changing conditions. Through a systematic review of the community forestry and related adaptive capacity literature in three East Asian countries, this study addressed the role of diverse knowledge systems, such as traditional and Western scientific knowledge, and civic traditions of self-organization in local communities that characterized adaptive capacity of this region. This study extends our understanding of community-based conservation efforts and traditions of this region, and adds to the understandings gleaned from studies of community forestry in the West and sacred forests in other parts of Asia and Africa. Further research on ways to increase adaptive capacity is needed in a site-specific context.

Mapping adaptive capacity and smallholder agriculture: applying expert knowledge at the landscape scale

The impacts of climate change exacerbate the myriad challenges faced by smallholder farmers in the Tropics. In many of these same regions, there is a lack of current, consistent, and spatially-explicit data, which severely limits the ability to locate smallholder communities, map their adaptive capacity, and target adaptation measures to these communities. To explore the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers in three data-poor countries in Central America, we leveraged expert input through in-depth mapping interviews to locate agricultural landscapes, identify smallholder farming systems within them, and characterize different components of farmer adaptive capacity. We also used this input to generate an index of adaptive capacity that allows for comparison across countries and farming systems. Here, we present an overview of the expert method used, followed by an examination of our results, including the intercountry variation in expert knowledge and the characterization of adaptive capacity for both subsistence and smallholder coffee farmers. While this approach does not replace the need to collect regular and consistent data on farming systems (e.g. agricultural census), our study demonstrates a rapid assessment approach for using expert input to fill key data gaps, enable trans-boundary comparisons, and to facilitate the identification of the most vulnerable smallholder communities for adaptation planning in data-poor environments that are typical of tropical regions. One potential benefit from incorporating this approach is that it facilitates the systematic consideration of field-based and regional experience into assessments of adaptive capacity, contributing to the relevance and utility of adaptation plans.

Assessing urban adaptive capacity to climate change

Despite the growing number of studies focusing on urban vulnerability to climate change, adaptive capacity, which is a key component of the IPCC definition of vulnerability, is rarely assessed quantitatively. We examine the capacity of adaptation in the Concepción Metropolitan Area, Chile. A flexible methodology based on spatial fuzzy modelling was developed to standardise and aggregate, through a stepwise approach, seventeen indicators derived from widely available census statistical data into an adaptive capacity index. The results indicate that all the municipalities in the CMA increased their level of adaptive capacity between 1992 and 2002. However, the relative differences between municipalities did not change significantly over the studied timeframe. Fuzzy overlay allowed us to standardise and to effectively aggregate indicators with differing ranges and granularities of attribute values into an overall index. It also provided a conceptually sound and reproducible means of exploring the interplay of many indicators that individually influence adaptive capacity. Furthermore, it captured the complex, aggregated and continued nature of the adaptive capacity, favouring to deal with gaps of data and knowledge associated with the concept of adaptive capacity. The resulting maps can help identify municipalities where adaptive capacity is weak and identify which components of adaptive capacity need strengthening. Identification of these capacity conditions can stimulate dialogue amongst policymakers and stakeholders regarding how to manage urban areas and how to prioritise resources for urban development in ways that can also improve adaptive capacity and thus reduce vulnerability to climate change.

National income and environmental concern: Observations from 35 countries.

National income produces mixed impacts on public environmental concern. In a cross-national survey, environmental concern was measured in terms of propensity to act and environmental risk perception. Results of a multilevel regression analysis show that these two measures respond to gross domestic product per capita in opposite ways. Citizens of advanced industrial countries are more likely than those of lower-income countries to contribute to environmental protection. However, they are less likely to see the harmful impacts on the environment as very dangerous. Using an indicator of national adaptive capacity, this article demonstrates that environmental risk perception is a function of a country's estimated capacity for coping with condition changes. The stronger sense of collective security among citizens of wealthier nations offers a possible explanation for the negative effects of national income. These results indicate the complex relationship between development and public environmental concern across countries.

English

This paper looks at the adaptive capacity of evicted agro-pastoralists who were evicted from Ihefu Basin in Mbarali District and forced to settle in new resettlement areas. Household questionnaires, life stories, and focused group discussions with a sample of 110 resettled agro-pastoralists was used to capture the data. Quantitative and qualitative data were analysed. The adaptive capacity index was used to determine the adaptive capacity of the resettled pastoralists. Findings revealed that the resettled pastoralists adopted different coping behaviors and livelihood strategies to adapt the resettlement areas. It was further observed that different livelihood capitals had different contributions on adaptive capacity among the resettled agro-pastoralists.Variations in the adaptive capacity of resettled agro-pastoralists were noted. For improving the adaptive capacity of resettled agro- pastoralists, the Government and other stakeholders should improve infrastructure such as rural roads, clean and safe water supply, schools, extension and veterinary services, reliable markets for agro and livestock products and marketing information. Key words: Adaptive capacity, agro-pastoralists, impoverishment, livelihoods, resettlement

Adaptation of agriculture to climate change in semi-arid Borena, Ethiopia

Livestock production is very risky due to climate variability in semi-arid Sub-Saharan Africa. Using data collected from 400 households in the Borena zone of the Oromia Region, we explored what drives adoption of agricultural practices that can decrease the vulnerability of agro-pastoralists to climate change. Households with more adaptive capacity adopted a larger number of practices. The households’ adaptive capacity was stronger when the quality of local institutions was high. However, adaptive capacity had less explanatory power in explaining adoption of adaptation options than household socio-economic characteristics, suggesting that aggregating information into one indicator of adaptive capacity for site-specific studies may not help to explain the adoption behaviour of households. Strong local institutions lead to changes in key household-level characteristics (like membership to community groups, years lived in a village, access to credit, financial savings and crop income) which positively affect adoption of agricultural practices. In addition, better local institutions were also positively related to adoption of livestock-related adaptation practices. Poor access to a tarmac road was positively related to intensification and diversification of crop production, whereas it was negatively related to the intensification of livestock production, an important activity for generating cash in the region. Our findings suggest that better local institutions lead to changes in household characteristics, which positively affect adoption of adaptation practices, suggesting that policies should aim to strengthen local institutions.

Vulnerability of agro-pastoral farmers to climate risks in northern and central Tanzania

ABSTRACTAgro-pastoral communities have been regulating their livelihood assets in response to global climate change. This paper analyzes the livelihood assets owned by the agro-pastoral communities and how they are used to enhance community resilience so as to reduce vulnerability. Data were collected from 411 agro-pastoralists in five districts of northern and central Tanzania. The analysis was based on indices constructed from carefully selected indicators of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Results indicated that the agro-pastoralists in northern Tanzania were more vulnerable to current climate risks than those of central Tanzania. Therefore, the paper recommends that stakeholders create opportunities for non-farm livelihood options to improve the cash income among agro-pastoralists.

Climate change implications for Torres Strait fisheries: assessing vulnerability to inform adaptation

Climate change impacts on marine fisheries are being observed in tropical regions, including northern Australia and the Pacific. In the Torres Strait, Islanders have a long association with their sea country that holds significant cultural, social and economic importance. Future impacts of climate change on marine fisheries stocks and supporting habitats will affect Torres Strait Islander communities. We assessed the relative vulnerability of 15 key fishery species in Torres Strait using a semi-quantitative framework modified from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that integrated both ecological and social indicators of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The assessment identified species with high, medium and low vulnerability to projected climate change in 2030. The species assessed as having the highest vulnerability were: Holothuria whitmaei (black teatfish), Pinctada margaritifera (black-lipped pearl oyster), Dugong dugon (dugong), and Trochus niloticus (trochus). A separate prioritisation process that considered the cultural and economic value of species identified three high priority species for future management focus: D. dugon, marine turtles (principally Chelonia mydas) and Panulirus ornatus (tropical rock lobster). These results can inform fishers and managers to prepare for the effects of climate change and minimise impacts. The relatively healthy condition of most fisheries in the Torres Strait is likely to assist successful adaptation.

The spatial distribution of vulnerability to the health impacts of flooding in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Flooding causes significant public health issues. The Mekong Delta has been considered the region to be the most vulnerable to flooding in Vietnam. This study assessed the spatial vulnerability of the health impacts of flooding in the Mekong Delta region, Vietnam. This study applied a vulnerability assessment framework which was computed as the function of three dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The indicators for each dimension were derived from the relevant literature, consultations with experts, and data availability. An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and a principal component analysis (PCA) were used to determine the weight of indicators. Vulnerability indexes (VIs) were then computed for each province. A total of 29 indicators (sensitivity index, 14; adaptive capacity index, 13; and exposure index, 2) were employed to evaluate the vulnerability to the health impacts of flooding at a provincial level. The results of AHP revealed that the highest VIs were found in the Dong Thap and An Giang provinces (VI, 1.948 and 1.574, respectively). VIs were distributed with higher indexes in upstream provinces close to a river than in coastal provinces. PCA generated three components from the 29 indicators, and the VIs computed from the PCA method are in substantial agreement with the AHP method (ICC = 0.71, p < 0.05). The vulnerability to the health impacts of flooding varies from province to province in the Mekong Delta region in Vietnam. Individual plans for health preparedness and adaption to flooding should be developed for each province in the Mekong Delta region.