Characterizing Vulnerability of Crop-Based Rural Systems to Climate Change and Variability: Agro-Ecology Specific Empirical Evidence from the Dabus Watershed, North-West Ethiopia

Abstract

Climate change is impacting climate sensitive rural livelihood systems. Exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of agricultural livelihoods to climate variability and change differ across agro-ecologies and these pose a challenge to climate resilient development strategy. This study assesses agro-ecology specific vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change and variability in the Dabus Watershed (North-west Ethiopia), based on a survey of 734 farm households complemented with focus group discussion and key informant interviews. Recognizing the physiographic and climatic diversity that exists across agro-ecologies in the study area, Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) framed within the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability framework (LVI-IPCC) is adapted to assess agro-ecology specific vulnerability in two local agro-ecologies, namely wet lowland and dry lowland. For each agro-ecology, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity indices as well as LVI-IPCC vulnerability score was calculated. The result shows that the dry lowland agro-ecology has a relatively higher exposure and sensitivity to climate stresses with a comparatively limited adaptive capability. On the other hand, the wet lowland agro-ecology exhibits intermediate vulnerability with a relatively lower perceived exposure and higher adaptive capacity. Higher exposure relative to adaptive capacity resulted in a positive LVI-IPCC score in the dry lowland agro-ecology and positioned it in more vulnerable level than the wet lowland. A higher adaptive capacity relative to exposure unveils a negative LVI-IPCC score for the wet lowland agro-ecology and positioned it in a moderate vulnerability category. In line with the findings, there is a need to set agro-ecology specific priorities for intervention that is most needed to cop up with the effects of climate variability and change in each agro-ecology. Climate risk exposure levels can be reduced through timely provision of climate specific information and early warning systems aimed at enhancing preparedness of farm households to extreme events. It is also crucial to expand availability of infrastructural facilities such as market, health services, and veterinary services so as to enhance adaptive capacity. Supporting alternative livelihood options and enhancing water harvesting practices for supplementary irrigation also call policy attention.