Adaptation Actions Research Articles

Vegetation community recovery on restored bottomland hardwood forests in northeast Indiana, USA.

Vegetation communities in restored bottomland hardwood forests in northeast Indiana were studied 6-21 years after restoration to assess progress toward restoration objectives. The study focused on four sites that were restored to compensate for resource injuries after contaminant releases. The restored sites were compared with four reference-site conditions, including crops (prerestoration condition), old field communities representing a no-management alternative, locally sampled second-growth mature forests, and forest community types described by the US National Vegetation Classification (USNVC), which represent ideal or defining conditions of recognized vegetation communities. Fixed-area plots provided data on field-sampled environmental variables, vegetation, soil, and hydrological conditions for crops, old fields, restored areas, and mature forests. The USNVC database provided quantitative data for three historically and geographically relevant reference forest community types for comparison with the sampled communities. Results of nonmetric multidimensional scaling based on species cover revealed clear gradients relating to site age and canopy development. Along those gradients, restored areas demonstrated increasing similarity to mature forest reference communities in terms of floristic composition. Specifically, the floristic quality of restored areas was significantly greater than that of crops and old fields. Furthermore, soil health measurements of physical, chemical, and hydrological conditions indicated significant improvements in restored site soils compared with prerestoration conditions represented by cropland soils. Descriptions and data from the USNVC provided ecological context for restoration target conditions and facilitated the assessment of restoration recovery along a trajectory from starting conditions to those target conditions. Descriptions by USNVC also helped identify deviations from the intended restoration objectives (e.g., invasive species recruitment) and potential adaptive management actions to return sites to their intended trajectories. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:1917-1938. Published 2024. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

GWO-ANFIS-RD3PG: A reinforcement learning approach with dynamic adjustment and dual replay mechanism for building energy forecasting

Reliable prediction of building energy consumption is essential for effective and sustainable energy management. Traditional forecasting methods, however, face challenges when dealing with sudden changes in energy consumption. To address the above-mentioned issue, we introduce the GWO-ANFIS-RD3PG prediction model in this paper. This model aims to ensure global forecasting accuracy while minimizing prediction errors at sudden change points. A Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO) algorithm with the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is proposed to predict the energy consumption type and its fluctuation magnitude for the next time step. Within the Recurrent Dual Experience Replay Buffer DDPG (RD3PG) prediction module, we employ Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), as the actor network in the Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG), to account for long-term dependencies in time series data. Notably, we introduce an adaptive action modification mechanism that allows the agent to optimize actions based on the output of the aforementioned ANFIS, enabling real-time adjustments during sudden change. To further enhance the model’s performance, we adopt a dual experience replay mechanism to store data samples from sudden change points, capturing insight information during these anomalies. Experimental results on two real-world datasets demonstrate that this method reduces MAE by 5.81% and 13.47%, and RMSE by 5.69% and 15.21% compared to the state-of-art models, showing the significance of the proposed method for energy efficiency improvement in real-world building operations.

Climate leadership competencies in public sector organisations in the Pirkanmaa region of Finland

Regions play an important role in concretising climate change mitigation and adaptation action. In this study, we asked those who work in designing and implementing climate strategies in regional public sector organisations in the Pirkanmaa region of Finland, for their views on what is needed for climate leadership in a regional organisation. We characterise the attributes of a climate leader in the context of regional public sector organisations in terms of the resources, processes, challenges and motivations in their work on climate change mitigation and adaptation, and describe the competencies needed for regional climate leadership. This research aims to support education design better to respond to the needs of regional climate actors.

Green Connections: Adaptive, Integrated, and Nature-Based Solutions for Urban Historic Centres

Choosing adaptation and mitigation actions, through nature-based solutions, fosters the ecological transition process, which is necessary to face the challenges of climate change. However, these interventions are often discontinuous and disconnected, especially within dense and delicate urban fabrics such as historic centres. The research proposes a multi-scalar methodological approach aimed at defining an integrated design tool to improve the microclimatic well-being, accessibility and aesthetic quality of open spaces located in consolidated urban environments. Through the synergy between natural, technological and social components, the aim is to create replicable minimum intervention units designed to foster democratic and ecosystemic connections.

Climate change and emerging infections: Risks, adaptation and response

Abstract Background Weather and changing climate are key drivers of the emergence, re-emergence and spread of infectious diseases globally. However, approaches to emerging infections and climate strategies are still largely being developed separately missing the opportunities for integrated climate adaptation actions to address infectious diseases. Description To inform the development of the UK national emerging infectious diseases plan, a literature review of the current and projected risks from extreme weather events and climate change on emerging infections in the UK is currently underway. This will support further work examining and co-designing adaptation options in the context of preparedness and response to emerging infections. Results Key preliminary findings from the literature review have indicated risks predominantly from evolving patterns of vector borne diseases as climatic conditions and habitat suitability of pathogens change. Changing temperatures and hotter summer temperatures have been associated with changing food-borne infection patterns. Further risks driven by extreme weather, including flooding and droughts, could perpetuate changes in water-borne infection patterns. Adaptation actions focussed on these infectious disease groups are currently under review and will cover risk assessment, data and surveillance, preparedness and response. Lessons This work integrates climate action with action on emerging infectious diseases. By examining the evidence on climate sensitive infections and co-designing solutions across teams, awareness is being raised and relationships and infrastructures built to better prepare and respond to both fundamental global public health challenges.

2.E. Round table: Building climate resilient health systems in the EU

Abstract Climate change is one of the biggest challenges for modern society. The health effects of climate change lead to negative impacts on European health systems, and conversely, European health systems contribute significantly to climate change. To overcome challenges posed by the climate crisis, European cooperation is essential. The interdependencies between climate change and public health and its broader impact underline the importance of resilience in European health systems, calling for concrete actions from both EU institutions and national governments. Additionally, the topic of resilient health systems currently ranks high on the European agenda, with the Belgian Presidency promoting health care strengthening as one of its six priorities. The European Commission will also continue its work on this issue for the next five years. The EU has already taken steps in this matter, such as the launch of the European Health Union and the adoption of the EU4Health Programme. However, in order to better prepare for climate resilient health systems, the EU must further develop in this regard. To explore this pressing issue, the round table discussion will focus on how EU actions in climate adaptation can synergistically contribute to the resilience of health systems. Resilience, often associated with adaptation, embodies the capacity to anticipate, withstand, and recover from shocks and stresses related to climate change. By delving into this question, the workshop seeks to uncover ways in which EU and Member State climate initiatives can reinforce health system resilience, thereby fostering a more adaptive and responsive health workforce and infrastructure. Featuring 4 panellists from Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Austrian National Public Health Institute, the Dutch Green Healthcare Alliance and the European Environment Agency, the round table will bring together diverse perspectives on this issue. The added value of the round table is laying out possible ways of how both the EU and Member States can contribute to enhancing the resilience of European health systems. After establishing the necessity for action, the round table discussion will focus on generating ideas to address climate change. Specifically, this discussion will cover examples of national policies, such as from the Netherlands, Austria, and other Member States. Also discussed will be the importance of monitoring and surveillance, and conducting a health and vulnerability assessment. This ensures better understanding of the relevant current and future health impacts, which will inform resilience measures. This will be followed by a discussion with the audience to formulate recommendations for improving the resilience of EU health systems for the next five years. Key messages • Climate change challenges European health systems, emphasising the need for European cooperation in resilience efforts. • Synergising climate adaptation with health system strengthening enhances EU’s capacity for resilience. Speakers/Panelists Chiara Cadeddu Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands Aleksandra Kazmierczak European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark Andrea Schmidt Austrian Public Health Institute, Vienna, Austria Juliette Mattijsen Groene Zorg Alliantie, Rotterdam, Netherlands

Exploring Climate Change Impacts on Temperature Extremes in the South Saskatchewan River Watershed, Alberta, Canada

In recent years, the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events have escalated, posing unprecedented challenges to ecosystems, economies, and human health. As global temperatures rise, these events are emerging as critical threats; therefore, understanding their changes is essential for developing strategies to mitigate their growing risks under global warming. In this study, we used ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring, and Indices) temperature indices to analyze future changes in extreme temperature events in the South Saskatchewan River Watershed (SSRW) in Southern Alberta, Canada, a critical area for irrigation, agriculture, and food production. This analysis is based on an ensemble of 26 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and three Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, in three periods (2015–2030, 2041–2060, 2071–2100), compared against the base period of 1951–1990. The results suggest substantial changes in most of the studied indices towards higher temperatures, with a significant rise in both the numbers of days with extreme temperatures and the magnitude of the temperature itself, as well as a notable drop in the number of cold days. As a result of warming, the growing season length is 16 days longer in 2015–2030 compared to the base period and is projected to increase substantially by the end of the century. A longer growing season might seem favourable for agriculture, but it can disrupt water availability and cause unpleasant environmental consequences. Overall, the scenarios considered in this research suggest that the SSRW could experience warming at a significant rate. This finding underscores the urgent need for adaptation and mitigation actions to enhance resilience and sustainability.

Review of national climate change risk assessment methods for impacts on health and health systems in WHO European Region

Abstract Background Climate change poses significant risks to health and health systems. The European Union climate adaptation strategy sets out the pathway to become climate resilient by 2050 and supports the development of adaptation strategies across all levels of governance. Whilst many European countries have published climate change risk assessments (CCRA), it is unclear to what extent health outcomes have been quantified or prioritised. There is a need to improve methods for CCRA methods to support decision making on adaptation and better quantify future impacts on health. The aim of this study is to review the methods used in national CCRAs for impacts on health and health systems in the WHO European region. Methods National and European level CCRAs were identified from national government websites and European document databases e.g. Climate-ADAPT. The most recently published CCRA from each country was included. Data extracted from CCRAs included climate scenarios used, modelling data, outcomes, types of evidence evaluated, stakeholder involvement, health information, methods for prioritization of adaptation options and urgency scoring. Data extracted from each document was grouped by climate risk or outcome. Results Nearly all WHO EURO countries have conducted a formal assessment of climate risks and over half specifically include risks to health. All countries assessed the urgency to adapt to heat and flooding however, less than half consider the health related risks related to disrupted water supply and quality as well as impacts on food supply and security. The key reported health outcomes identified across countries were mortality, infectious disease, chronic diseases and mental health. Conclusions There is varying progress in the quantification and prioritization of health risks from climate change across Europe. To support better public health decision-making, CCRAs should integrate sub-national and local information for targeted adaptation action.

Surprisingly wide climatic niche breadth of a relict mountain species raises hope for survival under climate change

AbstractAimsWe assessed the juvenile climatic niche breadth of a relict mountain species by comparing field observations and transplant experiments within and beyond the elevational limits of its distribution range.LocationLebanon – Near East – Mediterranean region.MethodsWe studied the survival and growth of the Cedar of Lebanon (Cedrus libani) to determine the lower and upper elevational range limits of its juvenile stage through an experimental setup with and without water supplementation and with potentially competing species as a control. The experiment included eight common gardens at elevations ranging from 110 to 2330 m, within and far beyond the warm and cold limits of Cedar distribution observed under natural conditions.ResultsWe observed unexpectedly high survival and growth rates of Cedar at elevations well below the range of its natural distribution in Lebanon. Below the observed warm limit, water stress at very low elevations and competition at low and medium elevations limited juvenile survival. In contrast, cold temperature and water stress limited survival at elevations slightly above the observed upper natural limit. The experimental setup demonstrated that the elevation range suitable for Cedar growth and survival was twice as wide as the range within which Cedar is observed under natural conditions.Main ConclusionsHigh survival rates experimentally observed beyond the warm limit of the natural distribution range of the Cedar of Lebanon raise hope for its resilience to ongoing climate warming. If this pattern were frequent among montane species, it would challenge predictions of massive extinction with climate change and pave the way for promoting adaptive actions such as competition management to improve their survival.

How Gender-Sensitive Are Environmental Institutions, Climate Adaptation, and Mitigation Actions? A Narrative from the Global South

This review explores the relationships between gender and climate change, focusing on Africa, South Asia, and Latin America. It draws attention to the differences in how women, men, and others are impacted by climate change, emphasizing vulnerabilities due to lack of access to resources and decision-making authority. We highlight the role gender-sensitive environmental institutions have in moderating how gender relations are affected by climate change. We assess gender sensitivity in environmental institutions, climate adaptation, and mitigation initiatives through regional comparisons, considering the different roles, responsibilities, and demands of women, men, and other intersectional groups within policies and initiatives to identify opportunities and difficulties in enacting gender-sensitive policies. The analysis shows widespread recognition of the significance of tackling gender-related concerns in the context of climate change and concludes that while progress is evident, there is room for improvement in addressing biases, stereotypes, and specific challenges, especially concerning climate change.

Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation Policies

This article reviews the literature on the economic impacts of disasters caused by extreme weather and climate events to draw lessons on how societies can better manage these risks. While evidence that richer, better-governed societies suffer less and recover faster from climate extremes suggests adaptation, knowledge gaps remain, and little is known about the efficiency of specific adaptation actions. I review various “no or low” regrets adaptation options that are recommended when uncertainties over climate change impacts are high. I discuss how governments can play an important role in adaptation by directly providing public goods to manage disaster risks or by facilitating private agents’ adaptation responses but also highlight the political economy of policy and coordination failures.

Evaluating the risk perception due to land subsidence within onyeama mine, South East Nigeria

This paper conducts a systematic evaluation of risk perception due to land subsidence monitored within a major coalmine in Nigeria. There is a general assumption in most hazard research that risk perception should be a first determinant of whether adaptive action is taken or not. To gain a comprehensive insight using land subsidence, we propose a technique that integrates quantitative evaluation (vulnerability assessment) and subjective evaluation (perception analysis) of human responses towards this environmental hazard. Perception of risk, which is dependent on risk magnitude appraisal and risk acceptance, was amplified into the overall risk constellation. Vulnerability assessment was conducted based on the human development index (HDI) at fourteen locations investigated for the study, with particular focus on building networks as an index for loss estimation. We exploit data from Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Satellites and Small-Baseline Subset Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SBAS-DInSAR) technique to map Onyeama Coal Mine in South – East, Nigeria. From the HDI and according to the vulnerability assessment, the margin of error (E) is estimated as 0.06754, with samples proportion of ρˆ= 0.85. The 95 % confidence interval for proportion is in the range of 0.783 to 0.917. The results indicates that with an average of a finite population size of N = 1413 buildings at each study location, about 85 % of the samples (n=100) do not recognize that land subsidence is ongoing and constantly affecting their buildings. As a result of this ignorance and lack of awareness, constantly progressing subsidence becomes normalized in peoples’ perceptions, and their outlook toward danger is not integrated into day-to-day habits. Thus, risk perception is a lesser determinant of mitigation responses towards slowly progressing subsidence, and not actual exposure leading to action.

Learning About Sea Level Rise Uncertainty Improves Coastal Adaptation Decisions

AbstractAdaptive decision‐making allows decision‐makers to plan long‐term coastal infrastructure under uncertain sea level rise projections. To date, economic assessments of adaptive decision‐making that take into account future learning about sea level rise uncertainty are rare and the existing ones have relied on simple quantification of future learning not validated against sea level science. To address this gap, we develop an economic adaptive decision‐making framework that takes into account future learning about sea level rise uncertainty and apply it to a coastal case study in Lübeck, Germany, to answer the question of how adaptation to sea level rise can be improved through adaptive adaptation pathways as opposed to non‐adaptive pathways. To address this question, we use a Markov decision process to formulate the stochastic optimization problem. We quantify future learning about sea level rise uncertainty through sea level rise learning scenarios based on and validated against the latest scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our case study results show that the city of Lübeck is currently under‐protected against storm surges and that immediate adaptation actions are advisable in the face of future sea level rise. We find that adaptive adaptation pathways, in contrast to non‐adaptive pathways, generate sea level rise thresholds for adaptation actions that are similar across climate change scenarios and can reduce expected costs up to 1.8%.

Flood management in the built environment: the micro-scale contribution to a distributed strategy

Abstract The built environment offers an opportunity to implement Flood Risk Management measures by spatially distributing them as a complementary alternative to large-scale protection schemes. Specifically, micro-scale solutions focus on buildings, open spaces, users, and small infrastructure, addressing various flood management strategies with different performance indicators. These measures encompass, for instance, private precautionary measures like floodproofing or elevation, and nature-based solutions. However, their adoption faces technology, economics, and social challenges. To effectively reduce flood risk and increase the built environment’s resilience to floods, a systemic approach is necessary, evaluating and jointly implementing diverse measures across the built environment. Drawing from a systematic literature review and expert interviews, this study explores micro-scale Flood Risk Management measures within the built environment, examining their barriers and drivers. Additionally, it introduces an atlas of multi-strategy measures, qualitatively comparing their performance. The paper concludes by emphasizing the need for a holistic perspective on flood adaptation and highlights opportunities to enhance building-level adaptation actions through collaboration with various stakeholders.

Transdisciplinary Research Supports the Sustainability of Barrier Island Systems Threatened by Climate Change

AbstractThe management of developed barrier islands is often piece‐meal and reactionary despite the complex, dynamic nature of these systems, and sustainable practices will become increasingly difficult due to heightened pressures of climate change. Adaptation actions, including nature‐based solutions, need to be thoroughly evaluated prior to implementation to understand system‐wide impacts and avoid maladaptation. Anarde et al. (2024a), (https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003672), Anarde et al. (2024b), (https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef004200) is the latest important contribution in a growing body of transdisciplinary research that more robustly evaluates the complex physical process‐and‐response relationship of barrier systems via sophisticated numerical modeling approaches that also interface with socioeconomic models to inform coastal management actions in response to mitigating coastal risk. This new research indicates the importance of coordinated system‐scale barrier island management, as strategies to reduce coastal hazard risk in one location will directly affect adjacent communities. Further, this work demonstrates that reducing barrier management interventions may actually promote barrier recovery and sustainability in the face of sea level rise. In addition, recent advances in the analysis and application of remotely sensed data from satellites and oblique aerial photography provide scientists an unprecedented opportunity to track coastal evolution over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales at minimal cost. As sea level rise and changing storm patterns challenge the sustainable management of barrier island systems, integrating these advanced, transdisciplinary tools will enable scientists and coastal practitioners to more thoroughly evaluate coastal adaptation options, efficiently invest limited resources to mitigate coastal hazard risk for communities, support healthy ecosystems, and reduce system‐wide impacts.

Addressing the climate adaptation tracking gap: an assessment method and its application to the Caribbean region

This article addresses the climate adaptation tracking gap. Indeed, we still ignore the intensity, nature, spatial distribution, effectiveness, and recent evolution of adaptation efforts at the national, regional, and global scales. We propose a web-based replicable assessment method using key variables to document adaptation efforts: country/territory, location, goal, implementation date, type of action, holder, funding source. Applying it to the Caribbean region, we analyzed 100 coastal adaptation actions. This studies the method while also highlighting the difficulties faced to track adaptation. We found that coastal adaptation efforts are substantial and increasing in the Caribbean, revealing the use of diversified adaptation actions; prevalence of hard protection (51%); increase use of Nature-based Solutions (22%); limited use of retreat (6%); and accommodation (2%). Combined actions (17%) increased over time, due to the failure of single actions and need to find tradeoffs between human asset protection encouraging hard protection and the maintenance of attractive tourist beaches encouraging beach nourishment. Puerto Rico and Trinidad and Tobago fall under the engineering-based “one-size-fits-all” adaptation model, whereas Jamaica and Barbados experiment diversified options and combinations of options. Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, and Barbados are particularly active in taking adaptation action, while most dependent islands and sub-national island jurisdictions have no adaptation action reported. Considering the advantages and limitations of a web-based method compared to a field-based approach, we recommend the combined use of these two complementary approaches to support adaptation tracking and help structuring communities of practice to the benefits of decision-makers and practitioners and scholars.

Risk Assessment of Community-Scale High-Temperature and Rainstorm Waterlogging Disasters: A Case Study of the Dongsi Community in Beijing

With the advancement of urbanization and acceleration of global warming, extreme weather and climate events are becoming increasingly frequent and severe, and climate risk continues to rise. Each community is irreplaceable and important in coping with extreme climate risk and improving urban resilience. In this study, the Dongsi Community in the functional core area of Beijing was explored, and the risk assessment of high temperatures and rainstorm waterlogging was implemented at the community scale. Local navigation observations were integrated into a theoretical framework for traditional disaster risk assessment. The risk assessment indicator system for community-scale high-temperature and rainstorm waterlogging disasters was established and improved from a microscopic perspective (a total of 22 indicators were selected from the three dimensions of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability). Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology was used to integrate geographic information, meteorological, planning, municipal, socioeconomic and other multisource information layers, thus enabling more detailed spatial distribution characteristics of the hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk levels of community-scale high temperatures and rainstorm waterlogging to be obtained. The results revealed that the high-risk area and slightly high-risk area of high-temperature disasters accounted for 13.5% and 15.1%, respectively. The high-risk area and slightly high-risk area of rainstorm waterlogging disasters accounted for 9.8% and 31.6%, respectively. The high-risk areas common to high temperatures and waterlogging accounted for 3.9%. In general, the risk of high-temperature and rainstorm waterlogging disasters at the community scale showed obvious spatial imbalances; that is, the risk in the area around the middle section of Dongsi Santiao was the lowest, while a degree of high temperatures or rainstorm waterlogging was found in other areas. In particular, the risk of high-temperature and rainstorm waterlogging disasters along Dongsi North Street, the surrounding areas of Dongsi Liutiao, and some areas along the Dongsi Jiutiao route was relatively high. These spatial differences were affected to a greater extent by land cover (buildings, vegetation, etc.) and population density within the community. This study is a useful exploration of climate risk research for resilient community construction, and provides scientific support for the planning of climate-adaptive communities, as well as the proposal of overall adaptation goals, action frameworks, and specific planning strategies at the community level.

A Grounded Theory Study to Explain Barriers, Promotors, and Adaptive Actions When Older Adults with Chronic Conditions Move in Community

Purpose The purpose of the present study was to construct a substantial theory that can systematically deal with barriers, promotors, and adaptive actions when older adults with chronic conditions move in a community. Methods The present study is qualitative research based on grounded theory methodology. We recruited participants in 2 day-service facilities and one nursing station, and selected participants according to principle of theoretical sampling. Results We included sixteen participants. We have constructed a theory including eight categories. The core category of the theory was “the set of primary indicators in community mobility” This core category is related to difficulty, comfortability, and safety when persons move in a community, and consists of four elements: difficulty of general actions, degree of psychological burden, degree of accumulated fatigue, and probability of accidents. Conclusion The theory integrated around the core category could provide a way of thinking for clinical practice.

Vulnerability to extreme weather events: mapping future hazards in Wielkopolska region, Poland

The aim of this study is to assess future hazards due to extreme meteorological events in the Wielkopolska region, Poland, based on five climate model projections and three scenarios: SSP126, 370, and 585. The paper analyzes the changes of mean and extreme precipitation, mean and extreme temperatures, and humidity index, as well as changes in difference between maximum temperatures observed from day to day and changes in difference between mean atmospheric pressure at the sea level observed from day to day. Additionally, we look at possible future occurrence of wildfires due to changes in fire weather conditions. Based on climate model projections, future hazard due to extreme meteorological events in Wielkopolska region is to be more serious and will be most noticeable in the end of twenty-first century and for two higher scenarios: SSP370 and SSP585. For near future, 2021–2050, projected conditions of meteorological extremes for analyzed scenarios are quite consistent. Therefore, there is a strong need for implementing adaptation actions. Nevertheless, such activities are so far lacking, and several adaptation options are not present in local and national legislation, even though they are recognized as effective.

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Geographical Distribution of Tea (Camellia sinensis L.) in Kenya with Maximum Entropy Model

Climate change has been disturbing the present species distribution ranges, resulting in the shifting of cultivation areas and decreases in production and quality. Tea (Camellia sinensis L.), which seeks optimum climatic resources, is a key cash crop economically in Kenya. In this study, the shifting of tea suitability was projected with the MaxEnt model under the SSP (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) climate scenarios for the 2050s and 2090s relative to the 1970–2000 distribution. Analysis under the current climatic condition showed that the proportions of optimal and medium- and marginal-suitable areas were 2%, 3%, and 24% of the total area, respectively, and located in south-western (SW), central, and north-eastern (NE) Kenya and, to some extent, in the Rift Valley. It was projected that the potential suitable tea-growing areas would migrate from the western areas to the central, eastern, and north-eastern highlands in Kenya. It was detected that the precipitation of the driest period (July), precipitation of the wettest quarter (April, May, and June), and annual temperature range could be the main climatic factors determining the shift in tea distribution. Compared to the current distribution (29%), the climatically suitable areas for tea production could reach 32.58% of Kenya’s land area under the SSP1-2.6 scenarios in the 2050s and 35.08% in the 2090s under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. On the contrary, it was found that the optimal climate-suitable habitats were projected to shrink by 2% and 1% in the 2050s and 2090s under all scenarios on the west side of the Great Rift Valley compared to the current distribution. In comparison, the sizes of medium- and marginal-suitable habitats would increase by 1% and 3%, respectively. The findings indicated that unless adaptive climate actions are taken, climate change could reduce the tea planting areas in western Kenya. Meanwhile, climate suitability was projected to expand upward on the east side of the Rift Valley, enhancing the potential distribution of tea. The developed climate information could be used to design and implement adaptation interventions in the lower elevation areas. Finally, we highlight that the available scientific literature on the climate suitability of tea in Kenya should be broadened by adding non-climatic factors.