Adaptation Planning Research Articles

Scenario planning for climate adaptation and management: a high-level synthesis and standardization of methodology

Scenario planning is a tool used to explore a set of plausible futures shaped by specific trajectories. When applied in participatory contexts, it is known as participatory scenario planning (PSP), which has grown in its usage for planning, policy, and decision-making within the context of climate change. There has been no high-level synthesis of systematic reviews covering the overall state and direction of PSP for climate adaptation and management. We draw from four systematic reviews on PSP published between 2015 and 2021 to substantiate the credibility of the process and identify a set of standard practices to make PSP a more accessible and usable tool for not only researchers, but policymakers, practitioners, and other end users who may benefit from PSP. We summarize and synthesize the range of PSP processes and characteristics, highlighting four common trends that provoke additional inquiry: PSP’s contribution to social learning and bias, the varying use of quantitative information in scenario development, issues related to carrying out monitoring and evaluation, and the varying completion of practices recommended by established PSP literature. We propose four processes as integral to maximizing PSP’s usability for end users and recommend these areas for further study: identifying social imbalances throughout the PSP process, recognizing bias as inherent to PSP, explicitly addressing, and incorporating uncertainty, and allocating resources for monitoring and evaluation.

Gender vulnerability and coping strategies to changing provisioning ecosystem services in Bongo and Kassena-Nankana West districts in the Upper East Region of Ghana

ABSTRACT Ecosystems provide a wide variety of life-sustaining services but are currently facing severe degradation due to changing land use and cover. Women are presumed to be more affected by declines in provisioning ecosystem services (PES). These claims have not been empirically proven across all contexts and have been contested by recent studies. Few studies in Ghana have attempted to examine this gendered environmental change phenomenon. Underpinned by the vulnerability theory, this paper employed an eclectic methodological approach to examine gender differences in vulnerability and coping with changing PES in Ghana. The findings reveal that both males and females depend highly on agricultural and woodland ecosystems for their livelihood needs. The deterioration in the total areas of the major ecosystems has resulted in significant declines in vital PES such as wild edible fruits and vegetables, medicinal plants and building materials for both men and women over the past decade. The study further reveals that the decreases in fuelwood supply affect women more than men because the former group mostly cooks food in their households, using fuelwood. As adaptation mechanisms, male farmers mostly planted trees on their farms to reclaim unfertile land and conserve forests, while female farmers engage in fruits and vegetable trade in the markets, as well as used non-indigenous spices to enhance the taste of food. Both males and females have also resorted to relying on orthodox medicines contrary to the past. To increase ecosystem resilience, the mainstreaming of ecosystem integrity adaptation practices into national adaptation plans is paramount.

Bridging the gap: Exploring urban resilience and sustainability in Finnish regional development

AbstractThis study investigates the dynamics of urban resilience (UR) and sustainability (US) in Finnish regional planning cultures, focusing on the Helsinki‐Uusimaa and Southwest Finland regions. It highlights the intertwined nature of UR and US, emphasizing the need for clearer distinctions to enhance planning effectiveness. Through comparative case studies, this research explores the role of institutional planning culture in shaping procedural resilience amidst complex socio‐environmental changes. It reveals resource constraints as critical challenges, influencing decision‐making and collaboration across governance levels. Additionally, it underscores the importance of long‐term commitment and integrated regional visions for fostering sustainable development beyond electoral cycles. The paper advocates for an integrated approach to regional development, emphasizing the significance of addressing power dynamics and economic resilience alongside environmental considerations. Overall, it calls for a nuanced understanding of resilience‐sustainability interlinkages to craft more effective and adaptive planning strategies.

Recommendations for incorporating invasive species into U.S. climate change adaptation planning and policy

AbstractExecutive Order No. 14008 mandated that U.S. federal agencies and departments develop Climate Change Adaptation Plans to enhance the nation's resilience to climate change. Invasive species are documented to reduce the effectiveness of climate adaptation and mitigation actions. In spite of this, only eight of the 26 federal plans directly reference invasive species, and just four meaningfully consider the reciprocal impact of invasive species on climate adaptation efforts. To ensure that climate adaptation planning and processes are effective with associated benefits for biodiversity conservation, a gap analysis of the Climate Change Adaptation Plans was conducted. Five key recommendations were developed that would transform how invasive species are considered within them. Examples of how invasive species have been included in some of the plans are provided, with suggestions for agencies that did not include invasive species on how they might do so, to illustrate that dedicated efforts in prevention, detection, and management of invasive species can safeguard carbon sequestration, protect communities and infrastructure, and minimize economic and biodiversity losses. Although developed based on U.S. federal plans, these recommendations can be used by state and local, as well as international, jurisdictions tasked with implementing climate‐adaptive policies to build resilience across multiple sectors.

Potential anatomical triggers for plan adaptation of cervical cancer external beam radiotherapy.

This study aimed to identify potential anatomical variation triggers using magnetic resonance imaging for plan adaption of cervical cancer patients to ensure dose requirements were met over an external beam radiotherapy course. Magnetic resonance images (MRIs) acquired before and during treatment were rigidly registered to a pre-treatment computerised tomography (CT) image for 11 retrospective cervix cancer datasets. Target volumes (TVs) and organs at risk (OARs) were delineated on both MRIs and propagated onto the CT. Treatment plans were generated based on the pre-treatment contours and applied to the mid-treatment contours. Anatomical and dosimetric changes between each timepoint were assessed. The anatomical changes included the change in centroid position and volume size. Dosimetric changes included the V30Gy and V40Gy for the OARs, and V95%, V100%, D95% and D98% for the TVs. Correlation with dosimetric and anatomical changes were assessed to determine potential replan triggers. Changes in the bowel volume and position in the superior-inferior direction, and the high-risk CTV anterior posterior position were highly correlated with a change in dose to the bowel and target, respectively. Hence changes in bowel and high-risk CTV could be used as a potential replan triggers.

Running to warmer-drier springs in the Greater Mekong Subregion as climate warms

Using the multivariate EOF analysis performed on the observation datasets, this study reveals that the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) has been toward warm-dry springs over most regions especially after the 2000s, accompanied by increased surface temperature and decreased precipitation anomalies. Such climate condition provides favourable environment for compound heat and drought events, raising questions about how the spring climate in GMS will change as climate warms. Based on a multi-model weighting scheme among CMIP6 models, we project the regional climate changes in GMS in a warmer world under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. Results show that the southern GMS including Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, and Cambodia will become warmer-drier throughout the 21st century in response to global warming. In contrast, the climate condition over the northern GMS including Myanmar and Yunnan province of Southwest China is expected to experience a transition from dry to wet springs in a warmer world, resulting in a tendency toward the warm-wet springs particularly in the long-term future. This knowledge indicates the spatial non-uniformity of regional climate under global warming and will aid in advance to plan for water management and agricultural adaptation.

Affective Sensitivity to Air Pollution (ASAP): Person-specific associations between daily air pollution and affective states.

Individuals' sensitivity to climate hazards is a central component of their vulnerability to climate change. In this paper, we introduce and outline the utility of a new intraindividual variability construct, affective sensitivity to air pollution (ASAP)-defined as the extent to which an individual's affective states fluctuate in accordance with daily changes in air quality. As such, ASAP pushes beyond examination of differences in individuals' exposures to air pollution to examination of differences in individuals' sensitivities to air pollution. Building on known associations between air pollution exposure and adverse mental health outcomes, we empirically illustrate how application of Bayesian multilevel models to intensive repeated measures data obtained in an experience sampling study (N = 150) over one year can be used to examine whether and how individuals' daily affective states fluctuate with the daily concentrations of outdoor air pollution in their county. Results indicate construct viability, as we found substantial interindividual differences in ASAP for both affect arousal and affect valence. This suggests that repeated measures of individuals' day-to-day affect provides a new way of measuring their sensitivity to climate change. In addition to contributing to discourse around climate vulnerability, the intraindividual variability construct and methodology proposed here can help better integrate affect and mental health in climate adaptation policies, plans, and programs.

Adaptation planning of container ports in the context of typhoon risks: The case of Ningbo-Zhoushan port in China

This study conducts a comprehensive survey of the risk of typhoon to container ports by assessing the risk level of typhoons in China's major container ports, predicting their economic losses, and evaluating corresponding adaptation measures. It analyzes adaptation measures in response to typhoon impacts, with a case study of Ningbo-Zhoushan port, one of China's most representative regional ports. It identifies the inadequate supply of institutions and the absence and misbehavior of the main port stakeholders as the main cause of varying institutional imperfections in the port adaptation system. This study contributes to the development of efficient port typhoon prevention policies, reduction of economic losses and casualties, and improvement of port operational efficiency. It also fills an important research gap on climate risk and adaptation in China's container ports, with an emphasis in enhancing port resilience.

Understanding how justice is considered in climate adaptation approaches: a qualitative review of climate adaptation plans

ABSTRACT Despite a growing focus on climate justice, prior research has revealed scant details about how marginalised groups have been engaged in local climate adaptation processes. This study aims to understand how justice is considered in these processes through a qualitative review of climate adaptation plans and related documents from US municipalities. We reviewed 101 plans published between 2010 and 2021 using the three-dimensional framework of recognitional, distributional, and procedural justice. Overall, our findings revealed a stronger focus on recognitional and distributional justice than procedural. Recognitional justice mainly focused on who is most vulnerable to climate change and how, with most plans adopting a similar understanding of vulnerability. Plans less frequently acknowledged how historical injustices contribute to vulnerability. Distributional justice was addressed through adaptation strategies across six areas (e.g. health and safety, buildings, green infrastructure, professional development, food, and transit), focusing greater attention on expanding existing programmes than new initiatives. Little attention was given to the potential negative impacts of proposed strategies. Procedural justice was mainly considered through one-off opportunities, rather than more extensive engagement in decision-making. Most plans lacked implementation considerations, for justice or otherwise, but when included, details mainly focused on who would be involved and not how strategies would be implemented. These findings provide an array of approaches to incorporate justice in adaptation planning and support several considerations for developing future plans.

Critical climate-stress moments for semi-arid farming systems in India

In the face of the increasing frequency of climate stresses, climate change projections can help in adaptation planning and resilience-building. However, typical climate change projections, such as annual average rainfall and temperature increases, are not helpful for farmers in understanding specific climate risks, like crop loss, and making adaptation decisions. Our study aims to identify and characterise context- and time-specific climate stresses in terms of climate conditions of concern to improve the understanding of future climate risks and enhance the climate resilience of semi-arid farming systems in India. Utilising the concept of critical climate-stress moments, we employ an innovative bottom-up methodology integrating insights from focus group discussions with farmers, key informant interviews, and an ensemble of downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP-6) models. Our case studies include (i) a mixed crop-livestock farming system, (ii) a horticulture-based farming system, (iii) a cash crop–dominant farming system, and (iv) a cereal-dominant farming system. The specific climate conditions of concern identified were (i) increasing volume of late-monsoon rainfall, (ii) rising winter temperatures, (iii) increase in the number of days with temperatures exceeding 40 °C, (iv) increase in days with heavy rainfall (> 25 mm), and (v) increasing rainfall during the dry season. Identifying these critical moments improves understanding of both the temporal and spatial variations in climate risks, providing valuable inputs for targeted and implementable climate resilience–building actions. We recommend revising national and state action plans on climate change by utilising such region-specific assessments of critical climate-stress moments.

Multi-institutional experimental validation of online adaptive proton therapy workflows

Objective. To experimentally validate two online adaptive proton therapy (APT) workflows using Gafchromic EBT3 films and optically stimulated luminescent dosimeters (OSLDs) in an anthropomorphic head-and-neck phantom. Approach. A three-field proton plan was optimized on the planning CT of the head-and-neck phantom with 2.0 Gy(RBE) per fraction prescribed to the clinical target volume. Four fractions were simulated by varying the internal anatomy of the phantom. Three distinct methods were delivered: daily APT researched by the Paul Scherrer Institute (DAPTPSI), online adaptation researched by the Massachusetts General Hospital (OAMGH), and a non-adaptive (NA) workflow. All methods were implemented and measured at PSI. DAPTPSI performed full online replanning based on analytical dose calculation, optimizing to the same objectives as the initial treatment plan. OAMGH performed Monte-Carlo-based online plan adaptation by only changing the fluences of a subset of proton beamlets, mimicking the planned dose distribution. NA delivered the initial plan with a couch-shift correction based on in-room imaging. For all 12 deliveries, two films and two sets of OSLDs were placed at different locations in the phantom. Main results. Both adaptive methods showed improved dosimetric results compared to NA. For film measurements in the presence of anatomical variations, the [min-max] gamma pass rates (3%/3 mm) between measured and clinically approved doses were [91.5%–96.1%], [94.0%–95.8%], and [67.2%–93.1%] for DAPTPSI, OAMGH, and NA, respectively. The OSLDs confirmed the dose calculations in terms of absolute dosimetry. Between the two adaptive workflows, OAMGH showed improved target coverage, while DAPTPSI showed improved normal tissue sparing, particularly relevant for the brainstem. Significance. This is the first multi-institutional study to experimentally validate two different concepts with respect to online APT workflows. It highlights their respective dosimetric advantages, particularly in managing interfractional variations in patient anatomy that cannot be addressed by non-adaptive methods, such as internal anatomy changes.

Technical note: Phantom-based evaluation of CBCT dose calculation accuracy for use in adaptive radiotherapy.

High-quality 3D-anatomy of the day is needed for treatment plan adaptation in radiotherapy. For online x-ray-based CBCT workflows, one approach is to create a synthetic CT or to utilize a fan-beam CT with corresponding registrations. The former potentially introduces uncertainties in the dose calculation if deformable image registration is used. The latter can introduce burden and complexity to the process, the facility, and thepatient. Using the CBCT of the day, acquired on the treatment device, for direct dose calculation and plan adaptation can overcome these limitations. This study aims to assess the accuracy of the calculated dose on the CBCT scans acquired on a Halcyon linear accelerator equipped withHyperSight. HyperSight's new CBCT reconstruction algorithm includes improvements in scatter correction, HU calibration of the imager, and beam shape adaptation. Furthermore, HyperSight introduced a new x-ray detector. To show the effect of the implemented improvements, gamma comparisons of 2%/2mm, 2%/1mm, and 1%/1mm were made between the dose distribution in phantoms calculated on the CBCT reconstructions and the simulation CT scans, considering this the standard of care. The resulting gamma passing rates were compared to those obtained with the Halcyon 3.0 reconstruction and hardware without HyperSight's technologies. Various anatomical phantoms for dosimetric evaluations on brain, head and neck, lung, breast, and prostate cases have been used in thisstudy. The overall results demonstrated that HyperSight outperformed the Halcyon 3.0 version. Based on the gamma analysis, the calculated dose using HyperSight was closer to the CT scan-based doses than the calculated dose using iCBCT Halcyon 3.0 for most cases. Over all plans and gamma criteria, Halcyon 3.0 achieved an average passing rate of 92.9%, whereas HyperSight achieved 98.1%. Using HyperSight CBCT images for direct dose calculation, for example, in (online) plan adaptation, seems feasible for the investigatedcases.

Modeling climate change projection and its impact on the streamflow in the Yadot watershed, Genale Dawa basin, Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Varied streamflow response to climate between river basins and seasons highlights the importance of further research on different basins and watersheds in different seasons to help plan adaptation options at watershed scale. This study investigated the hydrological impacts of climate change over the Yadot watershed. The multi-model ensemble of three regional climate models (CCLM4.8, RACMO22T, and RCA4) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios for 2021–2050 and 2051–2080 periods were used. The SWAT model was used to simulate the streamflow. Climate model projections have indicated that precipitation will slightly increase during both the wet and dry seasons from 0.59 to 2.08% and 0.02–1.59%, respectively. The annual projected precipitation will increase by 0.13–1.66%. The change in the projected maximum and minimum temperatures in both dry and wet seasons increased by a range of 0.61–1.9 °C and 0.65–2.07 °C, respectively. Similarly, the change in the projected minimum temperatures in both dry and wet seasons increased by a range of 1.07–2.01 °C and 0.06–1.66 °C, respectively. The wet and dry season stream flow increased by 6.23–9.36% and 3.16–5.46%, respectively. The findings of this study can help to guide water resources planners and designers in planning and managing water resources effectively for future use.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging Guided Radiation Therapy for Splenomegaly: Clinical Experiences and Technical Tips

IntroductionSplenomegaly is a common manifestation in chronic lymphoid and myeloid malignancies. While splenectomy is the preferred treatment for symptomatic splenomegaly, it carries significant risks. Radiotherapy (RT) has traditionally been considered a palliative option. This study explores the use of Magnetic Resonance-Guided Radiotherapy (MRgRT) for splenic irradiation (SI) in patients with myelofibrosis (MFI) and myelodysplastic/myeloproliferative neoplasms (MDS/MPN). MethodsThis single-center retrospective analysis includes patients with MFI and MDS/MPN who underwent MRgRT SI between 2018 and 2022. Ten 1 Gy fractions were delivered to the PTV (spleen+3/5mm margin). An adaptive online/offline strategy has been used to reduce the dose to healthy organs. Dosimetric data and clinical outcomes, including pain relief, gastrointestinal symptoms, and hematological values, were assessed. ResultsTwelve patients completed SI without interruption, with supportive transfusions as needed for cytopenias. Pain and gastrointestinal symptoms relief was observed in most cases. The mean percentage reduction in spleen volume was 53.61%, with an average cranio-caudal extension reduction of 77.78%. Twenty-nine (24.2%) out of 120 fractions were online adapted and 14 (11.7%) were replanned offline. Non-hematological toxicities were not reported. At a median follow-up of 12.9 months, 6 patients died, while 9 patients underwent hematopoietic cell transplantation, with 6 of them surviving. ConclusionThis study demonstrates MRgRT SI feasibility in MFI and MDS/MPN patients, offering symptom relief and significant spleen volume reduction. Real-time setup verification and adaptive planning allowed for tailored treatment with reduced margins, minimizing healthy tissue exposure. Larger prospective studies with longer follow-up are needed to further validate its efficacy and safety.

Facing the Unprecedented: Event Centers' Challenges and Interventions Amid COVID-19

The research investigates the complex issues and strategic interventions an event center has to deal with during the COVID-19 pandemic. Accordingly, the study identified significant challenges, such as a vast decline in profitability, transport-related problems, the loss of clientele, and acute liquidity problems. Safety and security concerns and the inability to maintain the operation cost contributed to and complicated the center's struggles. Challenges were met at the center by cutting utility and operating costs, revising marketing strategies, giving incentives to customers, and embracing technology. The lesson learned is that adaptability, innovation, and strategic planning are critical ingredients in managing crises. The management deftly rode out the unprecedented disruptions by keeping the business plan updated, carrying out market research, and creating a sense of commitment. The recommendations at the end of the study were focused on cost efficiency, marketing, the infusion of technology, and building resilient organizations for long-term growth.

Dosimetric evaluation of adaptive planning for five-fraction gynecologic template-based interstitial brachytherapy

Purpose: The purpose of this work was to evaluate whether inter-fraction imaging and replanning enhance treatment delivery adherence to clinical planning objectives in the context of a 5-fraction template-based interstitial brachytherapy (TISB) approach for gynecologic cancer treatment. Methods and Materials: This retrospective study analyzed nineteen patients who underwent five fractions of interstitial brachytherapy over three days using the Syed-Neblett template. A verification CT scan was acquired for applicator assessment and reviewed by a radiation oncologist and medical physicist before each fraction. Eleven patients required replanning at least once during the treatment course. Replanning on the verification CT scan consisted of generating new target and organ-at-risk contours, digitizing catheter positions, and optimizing source dwell times to meet planning objectives. Dwell times and positions from the initial treatment plan were evaluated on the new contours to assess the dose that would have been delivered without replanning (non-adapted). Significance of non-adapted versus adapted dose differences were evaluated using a two-sided Wilcoxon sum rank test. Results: The average (min, max) change in dose (Gy) between the clinically delivered plans and the non-adapted plans were HR-CTV D90%: -6.5 (-0.6, -15.1), HR-CTV D98%: -6.5 (-0.4, -12.6), Bladder D2cc: -0.5 (0.0, -2.8), Bowel D2cc: -0.8 (0.0, -3.2), Rectum D2cc: -1.1 (0.0, -11.5), Sigmoid D2cc: -1.4 (-0.1, -5.4). Dosimetric changes in HR-CTV coverage were significantly improved with replanning while organ-at-risk differences were nonsignificant (p>0.05). Fraction 3 was the most common fraction indicated for replanning. Conclusions: Replanning template-based interstitial brachytherapy can improve target coverage and adherence to planning goals.

Regional climate change adaptation plans in Russia: Legal political overview

Regional climate change adaptation plans in Russia: Legal political overview

Organ systems of a Cambrian euarthropod larva

The Cambrian radiation of euarthropods can be attributed to an adaptable body plan. Sophisticated brains and specialized feeding appendages, which are elaborations of serially repeated organ systems and jointed appendages, underpin the dominance of Euarthropoda in a broad suite of ecological settings. The origin of the euarthropod body plan from a grade of vermiform taxa with hydrostatic lobopodous appendages (‘lobopodian worms’)1,2 is founded on data from Burgess Shale-type fossils. However, the compaction associated with such preservation obscures internal anatomy3–6. Phosphatized microfossils provide a complementary three-dimensional perspective on early crown group euarthropods7, but few lobopodians8,9. Here we describe the internal and external anatomy of a three-dimensionally preserved euarthropod larva with lobopods, midgut glands and a sophisticated head. The architecture of the nervous system informs the early configuration of the euarthropod brain and its associated appendages and sensory organs, clarifying homologies across Panarthropoda. The deep evolutionary position of Youti yuanshi gen. et sp. nov. informs the sequence of character acquisition during arthropod evolution, demonstrating a deep origin of sophisticated haemolymph circulatory systems, and illuminating the internal anatomical changes that propelled the rise and diversification of this enduringly successful group.

Tidal Cities: Pedagogical (Mis)adventures in Game-based Visualizations of Adaptation Planning and Urban Justice

Tidal Cities: Pedagogical (Mis)adventures in Game-based Visualizations of Adaptation Planning and Urban Justice

Factors governing the dynamics of soil organic carbon and nitrogen in wetlands undergoing management changes in a semi-arid region

Soil organic carbon and nitrogen play pivotal roles as indicators of soil quality and ecological functioning in wetlands. The escalating impact of human activities and climate change has led to a severe degradation of wetland soils, particularly in semi-arid regions. However, an understanding of the factors governing the dynamics of total soil organic carbon (TSOC) and total soil nitrogen (TSN) in semi-arid areas remains elusive, impeding a comprehensive understanding of wetland ecological functions. The present study investigated variations in TSOC and TSN content as well as vegetation and soil physicochemical properties under five different land management practices (mowed wetlands, mowed and slightly grazed wetlands, moderately grazed wetlands, heavily grazed wetlands, and natural wetlands unaffected by human interference) in the semi-arid Songnen Plain region of China. The results revealed significant decreases in TSOC and TSN content within managed wetlands compared to natural wetlands. Moreover, positive correlations were observed between pairs of SOC-TN or their storage values for SOC (TSOC)-TN (TSN). Furthermore, TSOC and TSN exhibited significant positive associations with aboveground and belowground biomass levels, stem C:N, stem C:P, soil C:P, and soil N:P. Additionally, redundancy analysis indicated that species diversity accounted for 37.4% of the variations in TSOC-TSN while belowground biomass accounted for 8.5% of the variations. Furthermore, nutrient content within stems (particularly N content and C:P) contributed to a 37.2% variation in TSOC and TSN whereas root nutrient content (especially N:P, C:N, and C:P) contributed to a 15.3% variation. Soil C:P, C:N, and total phosphorous (TP) content accounted for 65.7%, 9.6%, and 7.5% of variations of TSOC and TSN, respectively. Besides, variation partitioning analysis revealed that plant community characteristics, community nutrient content, and soil physicochemical properties collectively influenced the dynamics of TSOC and TSN. Among these factors, soil physicochemical properties emerged as the primary drivers of carbon and nitrogen dynamics in degraded wetlands in semi-arid regions. The impact on TSN was more pronounced than that of TSOC. This study provides valuable insights for understanding the processes and mechanisms underlying carbon and nitrogen accumulation in degraded wetlands, facilitating the development of regionally adaptive management plans under different management practices.