Acute Physiologic Assessment And Chronic Health Evaluation Research Articles

Survival prediction in intensive-care units based on aggregation of long-term disease history and acute physiology: a retrospective study of the Danish National Patient Registry and electronic patient records

Intensive-care units (ICUs) treat the most critically ill patients, which is complicated by the heterogeneity of the diseases that they encounter. Severity scores based mainly on acute physiology measures collected at ICU admission are used to predict mortality, but are non-specific, and predictions for individual patients can be inaccurate. We investigated whether inclusion of long-term disease history before ICU admission improves mortality predictions. Registry data for long-term disease histories for more than 230 000 Danish ICU patients were used in a neural network to develop an ICU mortality prediction model. Long-term disease histories and acute physiology measures were aggregated to predict mortality risk for patients for whom both registry and ICU electronic patient record data were available. We compared mortality predictions with admission scores on the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, the Acute Physiologic Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, and the best available multimorbidity score, the Multimorbidity Index. An external validation set from an additional hospital was acquired after model construction to confirm the validity of our model. During initial model development data were split into a training set (85%) and an independent test set (15%), and a five-fold cross-validation was done during training to avoid overfitting. Neural networks were trained for datasets with disease history of 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2·5 years, 5 years, 7·5 years, 10 years, and 23 years before ICU admission. Mortality predictions with a model based solely on disease history outperformed the Multimorbidity Index (Matthews correlation coefficient 0·265 vs 0·065), and performed similarly to SAPS II and APACHE II (Matthews correlation coefficient with disease history, age, and sex 0·326 vs 0·347 and 0·300 for SAPS II and APACHE II, respectively). Diagnoses up to 10 years before ICU admission affected current mortality prediction. Aggregation of previous disease history and acute physiology measures in a neural network yielded the most precise predictions of in-hospital mortality (Matthews correlation coefficient 0·391 for in-hospital mortality compared with 0·347 with SAPS II and 0·300 with APACHE II). These results for the aggregated model were validated in an external independent dataset of 1528 patients (Matthews correlation coefficient for prediction of in-hospital mortality 0·341). Longitudinal disease-spectrum-wide data available before ICU admission are useful for mortality prediction. Disease history can be used to differentiate mortality risk between patients with similar vital signs with more precision than SAPS II and APACHE II scores. Machine learning models can be deconvoluted to generate novel understandings of how ICU patient features from long-term and short-term events interact with each other. Explainable machine learning models are key in clinical settings, and our results emphasise how to progress towards the transformation of advanced models into actionable, transparent, and trustworthy clinical tools. Novo Nordisk Foundation and Innovation Fund Denmark.

Clinical spectrum and outcome of critically ill hospitalized patients with acute febrile illness and new-onset organ dysfunction presenting during monsoon season.

Acute febrile illness (AFI) is one of the commonest indications for hospitalization and can present with varying severity including single or multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS). During monsoon season, there is a spurt of AFI often caused by vector borne diseases leading to substantial morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to determine distribution of etiological causes, differential organ involvement and predictors of mortality in critically ill patients with AFI. It was a hospital based observational study which included patients with AFI with dysfunction of at least one organ system. The study was conducted over 4 months during monsoon season. Admitted patients were included who had been subjected to a standard battery of tests and managed with standard hospital based management protocol. 145 patients were included and etiology of fever was ascertained in 81.4% of patients with the most common single infection being chikungunya (20.7%) followed by dengue (20%) fever. Thrombocytopenia and deranged liver biochemistry each were seen in nearly 75% of the patients. Renal (50.3%) and nervous system (46.2%) dysfunction were the predominant organ failures. 49 patients died (33.8%) which correlated with predicted mortality by APACHE (acute physiological assessment and chronic health evaluation) II score. Independent predictors for mortality were older age (> 55 years) (p = 0.01), acidemia (p = 0.01), altered sensorium (p = 0.02) and coagulopathy (p = 0.048). Sub-group analysis revealed that amongst patients with MODS, hypotension could help differentiate between bacterial and non-bacterial causes (p = 0.01). Critically ill patients with AFI suffer from significant morbidity and mortality. Features like the presence of hypotension in MODS may differentiate between a bacterial cause vis-à-vis viral or protozoal etiology.

Clinical usefulness of C-reactive protein to albumin ratio in predicting 30-day mortality in critically ill patients: A retrospective analysis

This study aimed to examine the prognostic value of C-reactive protein (CRP)/albumin (ALB) ratio among patients who were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) in predicting 30-day mortality rate. This retrospective cohort study was conducted by examining the medical records of adult patients who were admitted to the ICU at Seoul National University Bundang Hospital between 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2016. Data from 6,972 individuals were included in the final analysis, and 547 of these individuals (7.1%) died within 30 days after their ICU admission. The multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that an increase of 1 for the CRP/ALB ratio was associated with an 11% increase in the risk of 30-day mortality (hazard ratio: 1.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.09–1.14, P < 0.001). However, the area under curve of CRP/ALB ratio in receiver operating characteristic analysis was lower than that of Acute Physiologic Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Charlson comorbidity index, or serum albumin alone. Although an elevated CRP/ALB ratio on ICU admission was an independent risk factor for 30-day mortality rate, the predictive power of CRP/ALB ratio was lower than that of albumin alone, APACHE II, and Charlson comorbidity index.

Obstetric admissions to tertiary level intensive care unit - Prevalence, clinical characteristics and outcomes.

Background and Aims:Obstetric admissions to the intensive care unit (ICU) are a subject of increasing interest, as it is an indirect indicator of maternal morbidity and mortality. The studies from areas reported to have a higher maternal mortality rate are lacking. Thus, we undertook this study to determine the prevalence pattern, clinical characteristics and outcome of obstetric patients admitted to the ICU of a tertiary care hospital.Methods:All obstetric patients (up till 42 days of delivery) admitted to the ICU from 1st October 2015 to 30th September 2016 and from 1st October 2010 to 30th September 2015 were included. Data collected for our study included demographic characteristics, Acute Physiologic Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score at the time of admission, obstetric and medical history, provisional diagnosis, the reason for ICU admission, interventions required in ICU and the outcome.Results:The third trimester (46.79%) and postpartum period (40.37%) were the most common time of admission with conditions such as severe pre-eclampsia, eclampsia, HELLP syndrome (Haemolysis, elevated liver enzymes, low platelet count), antepartum haemorrhage, postpartum haemorrhage and anaemia. The mean APACHE II score was 16.89 ± 7.48 with a mortality rate of 17.76%. The mean length of stay in ICU was 3.47 ± 3.16 days, and mean length of stay in our hospital was 8.78 ± 6.76 daysConclusion:Obstetric patients recover well if treated early. A good ICU care with monitoring can save a young productive life.

The risk factors of colistin methanesulfonate associated nephrotoxicity.

Purpose:The risk factors of colistin methanesulfonate (CMS) associated nephrotoxicity are important. Our study attempts look into the prevalence of CMS-associated nephrotoxicity in Intensive Care Units (ICUs), and related risk factors.Materials and Methods:The study was conducted between September 2010 and April 2012 on 55 patients who underwent CMS treatment. Nephrotoxicity risk was defined based on the Risk Injury Failure Loss End-stage kidney disease criteria.Results:Fifty-five patients included in the study. A total of 22 (40%) patients developed nephrotoxicity. The correlation was detected between nephrotoxicity and patients over 65 with a high Acute Physiologic Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score. APACHE II score was revealed an independent risk factor for nephrotoxicity.Conclusion:Advanced age and a high APACHE II score are significant risk factors in the development of nephrotoxicity at ICUs following CMS use. Patient selection and close monitoring are critical when starting CMS treatment.

An open‐label study of anidulafungin for the treatment of candidaemia/invasive candidiasis in Latin America

Incidence and mortality of candidaemia/invasive candidiasis (C/IC) is relatively high in Latin America versus North America and Europe. To assess efficacy and safety of intravenous (IV) anidulafungin in Latin American adults with documented C/IC. All patients in this open-label study received initial IV anidulafungin with optional step-down to oral voriconazole after 5days; total treatment duration was 14-42days. The primary endpoint was global response (clinical+microbiological response) at end of treatment (EOT); missing/indeterminate responses were failures. The study enrolled 54 patients; 44 had confirmed C/IC within 96h before study entry and comprised the modified intent-to-treat population. Global response at EOT was 59.1% (95% CI: 44.6, 73.6), with 13 missing/indeterminate assessments. Thirty-day all-cause mortality was 43.1%. Fourteen patients (31.8%) were able to step-down to oral voriconazole; these patients had lower baseline acute physiological assessment and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II scores and were less likely to have solid tumours or previous abdominal surgery. Anidulafungin was generally well tolerated with few treatment-related adverse events. Anidulafungin was associated with relatively low response rates influenced by a high rate of missing/indeterminate assessments and mortality comparable to other recent candidaemia studies in Latin America. In a subset of patients with lower APACHE II scores, short-course anidulafungin followed by oral voriconazole was successful.

Higher arterial catheter-related infection rates in femoral than in dorsalis pedis access

Although there are many studies on arterial catheter-related infection (ACRI) there is little information on the relative risks associated with different catheter access sites. In previous studies we have shown a higher incidence of ACRI in femoral than in radial access sites. This prospective observational study was designed to compare the incidence of ACRI in patients on an intensive care unit with femoral versus dorsalis pedis access sites. We compared 1085 femoral arterial catheters inserted for a cumulative 6497 days with 174 dorsalis pedis catheters inserted for a cumulative 1050 days. We detected 33 cases of ACRI in the femoral access group (11 with bacteraemia and 22 with line site infection; 5.08 infections per 1000 catheter-days) but none in the dorsalis pedis access group. There were no significant differences between the two groups regarding age, sex, Acute Physiological Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, diagnosis, previous arterial catheter insertion, use of mechanical ventilation, use of antimicrobials or catheter duration. Regression analysis showed a higher incidence of ACRI for femoral than for dorsalis pedis access sites (odds ratio: 7.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.37-infinite; P=0.01). These results suggest that dorsalis pedis arterial access should be used in preference to femoral arterial access in order to reduce the risk of ACRI.

Risk factors associated with mortality of infections caused by Stenotrophomonas maltophilia: a systematic review

The objective of this review was to assess the quality of available literature regarding risk factors associated with mortality of infections caused by S. maltophilia. PubMed and OVID were searched from March 1985 to March 2008, and eligible studies were considered to be those that related S. maltophilia infection with risk factors associated with mortality; described the characteristics of patients in detail; and provided data regarding the outcome and mortality. Thirty-eight studies were found referring to S. maltophilia (four with multivariate analysis and 10 with univariate analysis). This review has several limitations, mainly due to the heterogeneity of patients, lack of appropriate statistical analysis and lack of definition of nosocomial and community infection studies. Data reviewed suggest that infections caused by S. maltophilia have high mortality and that the risk factors associated with mortality are related to the initial clinical condition and patient type. Underlying haematological disease in cancer patients and admission to the intensive care unit are independent risk factors associated with mortality. Shock, thrombocytopenia and Acute Physiological Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) score >15 are independent risk factors associated with outcome in patients with bloodstream infection and pneumonia. Organ dysfunction is the only independent risk factor associated with death from infection caused by sulfamethoxazole-resistant S. maltophilia. The impact of adequate antimicrobial therapy and removal of central venous catheter on mortality require further clinical studies.

Evaluation of risk factors for the acquisition of bloodstream infections with extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli and Klebsiella species in the intensive care unit; antibiotic management and clinical outcome

Controlled studies that address risk factors for, and clinical outcomes after, infection with extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing organisms are scant, particularly in the intensive care unit (ICU). Our objectives were to elucidate risk factors for the acquisition of ESBL-producing organisms in ICU; and to compare mortality in patients with ESBL- and non-ESBL bloodstream infections (BSIs) after controlling for disease severity and timeliness of appropriate antibiotic therapy. A retrospective cohort study was undertaken in the ICU from March 2004 to May 2006. Cases included all adult ICU patients with a BSI due to an ESBL-producing E. coli or Klebsiella spp. (N=16); controls (N=39) comprised ICU patients with a BSI caused by a non-ESBL-producing E. coli or Klebsiella spp. Disease severity was measured using APACHE (Acute Physiological Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation) and SOFA (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment) scores. Outcomes were recorded as discharge or death due to all causes. Although no statistically significant associations were demonstrated between individual risk factors and the acquisition of an ESBL-producing organism, appropriate therapy was delayed in cases (OR: 9.17; 95% CI: 2.00-42.20; P=0.0005) and survival estimates demonstrated a significantly increased early (<25 days after infection) mortality (OR for death 3.93; 95% CI: 1.05-14.63; P=0.03). Mortality in ICU, when adjusted for disease severity and appropriate antimicrobial therapy, though significant needs to be treated with caution due to the small number of cases (N=16 in 2 years). We believe that a high index of suspicion, early appropriate therapy and strict adherence to infection control are indicated in all patients at risk in ICU.

Readmission to Intensive Care Unit After Initial Recovery From Major Thoracic Oncology Surgery

Little has been published regarding outcomes subsequent to complications after thoracic surgery. The present study investigated outcomes and risk factors associated with mortality in patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) after initial recovery from thoracic oncology surgery. From March 2001 to August 2005, 1,087 patients underwent major resection for lung or esophageal cancer. Ninety-four (8.6%) of those patients required ICU care after initial recovery, and were the subject of the present retrospective review. The patient group included 85 males (90.4%), of mean age 66 years. Patients were classified as either survivors (n = 63, 67%) or nonsurvivors (n = 31, 33%). The most common reason for ICU readmission was pulmonary complication (n = 73, 77.7%). Sixty-four patients (68.1%) required mechanical ventilation and 42 (43.3%) required renal support. Multivariate analysis showed that the initial acute physiological assessment and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) III score at readmission to ICU, duration of mechanical ventilation, and renal support were risk factors for in-hospital mortality. The overall three-year survival was 50.6%. Cox analysis showed that survivors who underwent tracheostomy had a poor prognosis (p = 0.011). Of 12 late mortalities in survivors who underwent tracheostomy, 9 (75%) were due to cancer-unrelated causes. The ICU readmission after thoracic oncology surgery was associated with high in-hospital mortality. Identification of patients with a high APACHE score and (or) prolonged ventilation at readmission may help predict the risk of mortality. Preemptive strategies designed to optimize treatment of such high-risk patients may improve outcomes. Survivors from ICU readmission after thoracic oncology surgery require meticulous and frequent follow-up due to a high risk of deterioration after discharge.

Inadequate treatment of ventilator-associated pneumonia: risk factors and impact on outcomes

Initial antibiotic therapy is an important determinant of clinical outcomes in ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP). Several studies have investigated this issue, with conflicting results. This study investigated risk factors of inadequate empirical antimicrobial therapy and its impact on outcomes for patients with a clinical diagnosis of VAP. The primary outcome was adequacy of antimicrobial therapy. Secondary outcomes were duration of mechanical ventilation, hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) lengths of stay, and mortality due to VAP. Mean age was 62.9+/-15.2 years, mean APACHE (Acute Physiological Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation) II score was 20.1+/-8.1 and mean MODS (Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score) was 3.7+/-2.5. Sixty-nine (45.7%) of 151 patients with a clinical diagnosis of VAP received inadequate antimicrobial treatment for VAP initially. There were 100 (66.2%) episodes of VAP caused by multidrug-resistant pathogens, of which 56% were inadequately treated, whereas the rate of inadequate antimicrobial therapy for VAP caused by susceptible-drug pathogens was 25.5% (P<0.001). Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that the risk of inadequate antimicrobial treatment was more than twice as great for patients with late-onset VAP [odds ratio (OR), 2.93; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.30-6.64; P=0.01], and more than three times for patients with VAP caused by multidrug-resistant pathogens (OR, 3.07; 95% CI, 1.29-7.30; P=0.01) or with polymicrobial VAP (OR, 3.67; 95% CI, 1.21-11.12; P=0.02). Inadequate antimicrobial treatment was associated with higher mortality for patients with VAP. Two of three independent risk factors for treatment inadequacy were associated with the isolation and identification of micro-organisms.

Urine IL-18 Is an Early Diagnostic Marker for Acute Kidney Injury and Predicts Mortality in the Intensive Care Unit

Serum creatinine is not an ideal marker of renal function in patients with acute kidney injury (AKI). Previous studies demonstrated that urinary IL-18 is increased in human AKI. Thus, whether urine IL-18 is an early diagnostic marker of AKI was investigated. A nested case-control study was performed within the Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) Network trial. AKI was defined as an increase in serum creatinine by at least 50% within the first 6 d of ARDS study enrollment. A total of 400 urine specimens that were collected on study days 0, 1, and 3 of the ARDS trial were available from 52 case patients and 86 control patients. The data were analyzed in a cross-sectional manner and according to the time before development of AKI. The median urine IL-18 levels were significantly different at 24 and 48 h before AKI in case patients as compared with control patients. On multivariable analysis, urine IL-18 values predicted development of AKI 24 and 48 h later after adjustment for demographics, sepsis, Acute Physiologic Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III score, serum creatinine, and urine output. Urine IL-18 levels of >100 pg/ml are associated with increased odds of AKI of 6.5 (95% confidence interval 2.1 to 20.4) in the next 24 h. On diagnostic performance testing, urine IL-18 demonstrates an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 73% to predict AKI in the next 24 h. The urine IL-18 values were also significantly different between survivors and nonsurvivors (P < 0.05), and on multivariable analysis, the urine IL-18 value on day 0 is an independent predictor of mortality. Urinary IL-18 levels can be used for the early diagnosis of AKI. Urine IL-18 levels also predict the mortality of patients who have ARDS and are in the intensive care unit.