Actuarial Instrument Research Articles

Validation of an Actuarial Instrument to Predict Repeat Family Violence for Frontline Police: Calibration, Discrimination and Classification Performance of the VP-SAFvR

Abstract Purpose Police are increasingly tasked with identifying, responding to, and preventing intimate partner and family violence (IPFV). Several police organisations have adopted validated risk assessment instruments to assist frontline police officers to assess and manage the risk of future IPFV. This paper reports a population-based evaluation of the predictive and discriminative validity of an actuarial risk assessment instrument, the Victoria Police Screening Assessment for Family Violence Risk (VP-SAFvR), used by frontline police officers in Victoria, Australia. Methods The entire population (n = 38,454) of family violence reports (FVRs) where police used the VP-SAFvR between 1 September 2019 and 31 March 2020 were tracked for 365 days to ascertain whether the VP-SAFvR was able to predict subsequent family violence and discriminate between cases with and without subsequent family violence. Calibration and survival analysis was performed on the instrument. Results Approximately 33% of the sample was involved in subsequent IPFV over the 12 month outcome period. In line with the development (McEwan et al., 2019) and validation (Spivak et al., 2020) studies of the same instrument, the results show the VP-SAFvR continues to provide adequate consistent discriminative and predictive performance across time. The AUC for repeat IPFV was 0.65, with the recommended threshold score of 4 (or above) identifying 75% of individuals involved in repeat family violence and correctly screening out approximately 50% of non-repeat cases. Conclusions The paper extends the previous research on VP-SAFvR by providing some indication that the tool is well-calibrated. Incidence curves show the largest increase in repeat family violence among those scoring above threshold occurs in the first 90 days post index. The implications and limitations of the study are discussed.

Community-Based Treatment for Individuals Convicted of Sexual Offenses Using the Integrated Risk Assessment and Treatment System Model Versus Standard Correctional Programming

The present investigation examined a group of 90 clients receiving treatment for issues related to sexual offending in The Central District (Ontario) Sex Offender Treatment Program operated by Correctional Service Canada (CSC). Treatment was provided in line with the Integrated Risk Assessment and Treatment System (IRATS) Model developed by the authors. A group of 55 individuals who had not received sexual offense–specific treatment but who received standard correctional programming offered by paraprofessionals were used as a basis of comparison. Risk assessment data were available for all clients included in the analyses. Results indicated that there were no differences between groups on the RRASOR (an actuarial instrument designed to assess risk of sexual offense recidivism) with reference to sexual offender recidivism risk. With reference to sexual offense recidivism, only one of the treated clients recidivated sexually over 8.17 years of follow-up versus four of the 55 comparison group who were followed for a significantly shorter period of time (i.e., 6.9 years).

Optimal threshold for static 99R

The Static 99R is an actuarial instrument that is widely used to assess the sexual recidivism risk of sex offenders. It is frequently applied in jurisdictions as a decision-making tool for release or indefinite admission to a psychiatric hospital within the jail of sex offenders. The decision to release or retain a criminal depends solely on the total score which is considered as the only independent variable. In our study, two models of Static 99R are considered: the 5-year high risk model and the 10-year high risk model. To identify the most appropriate threshold, we performed four independent methods. These are: the point closest-to-(0,1), the concordance probability (CZ), the index of union (IU), and the plot of sensitivity versus specificity. Remarkably, all four methods yielded identical results. For the 5-year high risk model, the optimal threshold is 0.184, which corresponds to a cut-off score of 5. Consequently, a score of 5 or higher implies that the offender is very likely to recidivate. Similarly, for the 10-year high risk, the optimal threshold is 0.293 which corresponds also to a cut-off score of 5.

Clinical (In)Efficiency in the Prediction of Dangerous Behavior

The prediction of dangerous and/or violent behavior is particularly important to the conduct of the U.S. criminal justice system when it makes decisions about restrictions of personal freedom, such as preventive detention, forensic commitment, parole, and in some states such as Texas, when to permit an execution to proceed of an individual found guilty of a capital crime. This article discusses the prediction of dangerous behavior both through clinical judgment and actuarial assessment. The general conclusion drawn is that for both clinical and actuarial prediction of dangerous behavior, we are far from a level of accuracy that could justify routine use. To support this later negative assessment, two topic areas are emphasized: (1) the MacArthur Study of Mental Disorder and Violence, including the actuarial instrument developed as part of this project (the Classification of Violence Risk), along with all the data collected that helped develop the instrument; and (2) the U.S. Supreme Court case of Barefoot v. Estelle (1983) and the American Psychiatric Association “friend of the court” brief on the (in)accuracy of clinical prediction for the commission of future violence. Although now three decades old, Barefoot v. Estelle is still the controlling Supreme Court opinion regarding the prediction of future dangerous behavior and the imposition of the death penalty in states, such as Texas; for example, see Coble v. Texas (2011) and the Supreme Court denial of certiorari in that case.

DOES EMOTIONAL CONGRUENCE AND COMPULSIVE SEXUAL BEHAVIOR INCREASE THE RECURRENCE RISKS OF CHILD SEXUAL ABUSE?

This research examines the influence of Emotional Congruence with Children and Compulsive Sexual Behavior towards Re-offend Prediction of Child Sexual Offenders. The research was conducted on 111 residents of correctional facilities for child sexual abuse in 5 correctional institutions in East Java, all of whom were males aged 18 to 81. The prediction of reoffending was assessed using an actuarial instrument, Static-2002 which was tested with Fleiss Kappa Inter-rater Reliability 89% (14 items). Emotional Congruence with Children was assessed by the adapted Emotional Congruence Scale of Children and Sex Questionnaire (EC-CSQ; 15 items, α = .88). Compulsive Sexual Behavior assessed by the Compulsive Sexual Behavior Inventory-13 (CSBI-13; 13 items, α = .85). The data was analyzed by using correlation and multivariate linear regression analysis. The research found that age and Compulsive Sexual Behavior, particularly Distress in Daily Functioning, significantly predicted reoffending among Child Sexual Crime Offenders (R 2 = .49). However, the inability to Control Compulsive Sexual Behavior was not predictive towards reoffending. The findings of this research are expected to provide input in the criminal justice and psychological correction-rehabilitation process for sexual offenders in Indonesia.

The Development of the VP-SAFvR: An Actuarial Instrument for Police Triage of Australian Family Violence Reports

This study describes the rationale, development, and validation of the Victoria Police Screening Assessment for Family Violence Risk (VP-SAFvR). The actuarial instrument was developed on a sample of 24,446 Australian police reports from 2013-2014. Information from each report and criminal histories of those involved were collected with 12-month follow-up, and binary logistic regression used to develop an improper predictive model. The selected VP-SAFvR cut-off score correctly identified almost three quarters of cases with further reports, while half of those without were accurately excluded. It was effective for frontline police triage decision-making, with few screened-out cases reporting further family violence, while those screened-in required additional risk assessment. Predictive validity was adequate and consistent across family relationships and demographic groups, although it was less effective in predicting future family violence reports involving same-sex couples or child perpetrators. Further evaluation in a field trial is necessary to determine the validity of the VP-SAFvR in practice.

Screening for potential child maltreatment in parents of a newborn baby: The predictive validity of an Instrument for early identification of Parents At Risk for child Abuse and Neglect (IPARAN)

For preventive purposes it is important to be able to identify families with a high risk of child maltreatment at an early stage. Therefore we developed an actuarial instrument for screening families with a newborn baby, the Instrument for identification of Parents At Risk for child Abuse and Neglect (IPARAN). The aim of this study was to assess the predictive validity of the IPARAN and to examine whether combining actuarial and clinical methods leads to an improvement of the predictive validity. We examined the predictive validity by calculating several performance indicators (i.e., sensitivity, specificity and the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve [AUC]) in a sample of 4692 Dutch families with newborns. The outcome measure was a report of child maltreatment at Child Protection Services during a follow-up of 3 years. For 17 children (.4%) a report of maltreatment was registered. The predictive validity of the IPARAN was significantly better than chance (AUC=.700, 95% CI [.567–.832]), in contrast to a low value for clinical judgement of nurses of the Youth Health Care Centers (AUC=.591, 95% CI [.422–.759]). The combination of the IPARAN and clinical judgement resulted in the highest predictive validity (AUC=.720, 95% CI [.593–.847]), however, the difference between the methods did not reach statistical significance. The good predictive validity of the IPARAN in combination with clinical judgment of the nurse enables professionals to assess risks at an early stage and to make referrals to early intervention programs.

Dominant Principles and Models of Treatment Work with Adult Offenders in the Community

In its introduction the paper provides a presentation of probation activities in Croatia, many of which also imply treatment work with offenders. As part of the rehabilitation approach, the Croatian probation service follows the principles of the Risk-Need-Responsivity Model (RNR Model) and the principles of the Good Lives Model (GLM) to a certain extent. This paper analyses the RNR Model from the perspective of existing benefits and criticisms, with particular consideration of the responsivity principle, which is pointed out as especially challenging in foreign literature. The short presentation of the GLM is followed by a comparison of these two models, whose principles currently lead to great debates, due to potential differences in approaches to the offender. Models and associated principles are then analysed from the perspective of the challenge of their implementation in the performance of probation activities. The conducted analyses can contribute to the efficiency of the Croatian probation service and also be useful to scientists in the validation of the probation actuarial instrument and research of the local probation practice.

Preliminary Evaluation of Structured Professional Judgment to Assess Removal in Child Protection Practice

This study is a pilot validation of a newly devised evidence-based clinical instrument that assists professional judgment for decisions relating to child removal. The Child Protection Removal Assessment (ChiPRA) instrument adopts a structured professional judgement (SPJ) approach to decision-making and was developed from a literature review of studies identifying factors associated with severe child abuse. A study comparing the predictive validity of ChiPRA and an actuarial instrument was conducted using court file data from 298 child protection cases. A logistic function from all ChiPRA items, χ² (11) = 147.546, p < 0.000, correctly classified 86.3% of cases (Area Under the Curve [AUC] = 0.799, p < 0.000, 95% confidence interval: 0.738–0.859). The abuse subscale of the actuarial instrument yielded a modest but significant AUC (0.595, 95% CI: 0.530–0.660). Results indicate an increased reliance upon dynamic factors by magistrates when determining child removal. SPJ instruments warrant further research including prospective studies measuring reliability and validity studies.

Prediction of treatment outcomes for personality disordered offenders

Purpose – Evidence has shown associations between personality disorder (PD) and poor treatment outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to: first, establish which risk assessment method (i.e. structured professional judgement or actuarial) is most reliable for predicting treatment outcomes for individuals with PD. Second, determine whether individuals identified as high risk are more likely to have poorer treatment outcomes. Third, determine if engagement in treatment helps to reduce risk assessment scores. Design/methodology/approach – In total, 50 patients were recruited from a medium secure forensic PD service. Their risk was assessed using one structured professional judgement instrument (the HCR-20) and one actuarial instrument (the RM2000). The study used a retrospective cohort design. Findings – Overall, the HCR-20 was a better predictor of treatment outcome than the RM2000. Personality-disordered offenders with high HCR-20 scores are at an increased risk of adverse treatment outcomes. Research limitations/implications – This investigation used a small, non-randomised sample of male patients with PD at one South East England medium secure unit. The data were over-represented by white British males. Future research should compare PD offenders with non-PD offenders to investigate what factors best predict poorer treatment outcomes. Originality/value – The findings indicate that structured professional judgement approaches are more effective predictors of risk than actuarial measures for assessing patients with PD. This study therefore adds value to forensic services and to the risk assessment debate.

Absconding Among Juvenile Parolees in Arizona

Absconding refers to the active or passive avoidance of contact with correctional supervisory agencies by offenders. Absconders are problematic because their whereabouts are unknown and their threat to the public is elevated. The aim of this study was to construct and validate an actuarial instrument designed to assess risk for absconding among juvenile parolees that accounts for gendered differences. The data were gathered from 1,063 juveniles released from the Arizona Department of Juvenile Corrections into community settings in 2008 and 2009. Juveniles were randomly subdivided into construction and validation samples to assess the validity of the instrument. Twelve risk factors were identified to construct the instrument, three of which were found to operate differently for male and female juveniles. Upon application to the validation sample, the instrument correctly classified 70% of juvenile parolees, and a corresponding r value of .37 was observed. The author discusses the substantive and practical implications for assessing absconding risk and modeling gender differences when supervising offenders in community settings.

Predicting the Risk of Intimate Partner Violence: The Chinese Risk Assessment Tool for Victims

The present study reports the development and validation of the Chinese Risk Assessment Tool for Victims (CRAT-V), an actuarial instrument for the prediction of intimate partner violence (IPV) victimization in a Chinese population. Data were collected from a representative sample of 2,708 Chinese women who were married or cohabiting in Hong Kong. All participants were interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their experience of IPV victimization and personal or family factors related to IPV. As measured by the Revised Conflict Tactics Scale (CTS 2), the base rates of preceding-year physical and sexual IPV victimization were 4.6 % and 3.6 %, respectively. Using a cross-validation procedure, the present study developed a 5-factor instrument with one half of the randomly split sample and validated the resulting tool with the other half. The CRAT-V had a sensitivity of 74.0 %, a specificity of 68.3 %, an overall accuracy of 68.7 %, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.75 when administered on the second half of sample. Overall, the CRAT-V may serve as a straightforward, systematic, and easy-to-administer instrument tailor-made for Chinese populations for the assessment of risk of IPV victimization against women.

Evaluating the Risk of Child Abuse

The present study developed the Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS), an actuarial instrument for the assessment of the risk of physical child abuse. Data of 2,363 Chinese parents (47.7% male) living in Hong Kong were used in the analyses. Participants were individually interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their perpetration of child abuse and some theoretically or empirically tested factors associated with child abuse. Using the split-half validation procedure, the 5-factor, 64-item CARAS was created and validated. When applying to the second half of the split sample, the CARAS had a sensitivity of 81.9%, a specificity of 77.8%, and an overall accuracy of 78.1%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was .91. Overall, our findings showed that the CARAS is a simple, systematic and validated instrument identifying at-risk population of child maltreatment in Chinese societies.

The Predictive Ability of the Classification of Violence Risk (COVR) in a Forensic Psychiatric Hospital

Objective: Aggression is a common problem in psychiatric and correctional facilities. An actuarial instrument, the Classification of Violence Risk (COVR), has demonstrated utility in predicting community aggression among civilly committed psychiatric patients and, more recently, an ability to predict institutional aggression in a forensic facility. This prospective study aimed to extend validation of the use of the COVR in a forensic facility. Methods: The study, conducted at a large U.S. forensic facility, used nursing records to document incidents of physical aggression by 146 patients for 20 weeks after COVR administration. Correlational and chi square analyses were conducted to evaluate the efficacy of the COVR in predicting aggression. Results: The COVR showed modest predictive ability for institutional aggression, with a correlation of .331 and an area under the curve of .725. Conclusions: Results support use of the COVR in a forensic facility; its ability to predict institutional aggression is similar to that found for community aggression. (Psychiatric Services 62:430–433, 2011)

The Predictive Ability of the Classification of Violence Risk (COVR) in a Forensic Psychiatric Hospital

Aggression is a common problem in psychiatric and correctional facilities. An actuarial instrument, the Classification of Violence Risk (COVR), has demonstrated utility in predicting community aggression among civilly committed psychiatric patients and, more recently, an ability to predict institutional aggression in a forensic facility. This prospective study aimed to extend validation of the use of the COVR in a forensic facility. The study, conducted at a large U.S. forensic facility, used nursing records to document incidents of physical aggression by 146 patients for 20 weeks after COVR administration. Correlational and chi square analyses were conducted to evaluate the efficacy of the COVR in predicting aggression. The COVR showed modest predictive ability for institutional aggression, with a correlation of .331 and an area under the curve of .725. Results support use of the COVR in a forensic facility; its ability to predict institutional aggression is similar to that found for community aggression.

Substance Abuse Among High-Risk Sexual Offenders: Do Measures of Lifetime History of Substance Abuse Add to the Prediction of Recidivism Over Actuarial Risk Assessment Instruments?

There has been relatively little research on the degree to which measures of lifetime history of substance abuse add to the prediction of risk based on actuarial measures alone among sexual offenders. This issue is of relevance in that a history of substance abuse is related to relapse to substance using behavior. Furthermore, substance use has been found to be related to recidivism among sexual offenders. To investigate whether lifetime history of substance abuse adds to prediction over and above actuarial instruments alone, several measures of substance abuse were administered in conjunction with the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG). The SORAG was found to be the most accurate actuarial instrument for the prediction of serious recidivism (i.e., sexual or violent) among the sample included in the present investigation. Complete information, including follow-up data, were available for 250 offenders who attended the Regional Treatment Centre Sex Offender Treatment Program (RTCSOTP). The Michigan Alcohol Screening Test (MAST) and the Drug Abuse Screening Test (DAST) were used to assess lifetime history of substance abuse. The results of logistic regression procedures indicated that both the SORAG and the MAST independently added to the prediction of serious recidivism. The DAST did not add to prediction over the use of the SORAG alone. Implications for both the assessment and treatment of sexual offenders are discussed.

Assessing Risk of Future Violence Among Forensic Psychiatric Inpatients With the Classification of Violence Risk (COVR)

Instruments are needed to help clinicians make decisions about a patient's risk of future violence in order to manage this risk, protect others, and allocate resources. One such actuarial instrument-the Classification of Violence Risk (COVR)-was developed from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study. The COVR has not been validated in a sample other than the one with which it was constructed or outside of the United States. The purpose of this study was to provide an independent validation of the COVR in a sample of forensic psychiatric inpatients in the United Kingdom. The prospective study was conducted at four medium-security forensic psychiatric units over six months. Two risk assessment instruments were completed for 52 patients: the COVR and the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), a well-established actuarial instrument. Incidents of verbal aggression, physical aggression toward others, and aggression against property were documented for the next six months from nursing records. Predictive accuracy of the instruments was analyzed using both correlational techniques and signal detection theory. COVR was a good predictor of both verbal and physical aggression. Its predictive ability was similar to that of the VRAG, although the VRAG was a better predictor of violence to property. The study provides the first independent validation of the COVR and evidence of the usefulness of the COVR in predicting harmful behavior in forensic inpatient settings in the United Kingdom.

Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile offenders. Results of this study (N = 29,711) show that the actuarial model provided stable predictive validity estimates for recidivism up to 7 years after its initial validation and that predictive validity did not vary appreciably for males, females, White offenders, Latino youth, African American youth, and Native American youth. These findings lend further support to the actuarial approach to risk assessment and clarify the literature about risk assessment across gender and race/ethnicity.

Predictive validity despite social desirability: evidence for the robustness of self-report among offenders.

Many professionals believe that self-report questionnaires used to predict recidivism have a low validity. The aim of the present study was to investigate the assumption that the validity of self-report is vulnerable to self-presentation biases in offender samples. The participants consisted of 124 male offenders who volunteered to complete the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ). Lower scores on measures of social desirability were significantly associated with higher levels of risk (as measured by self-report and a rated actuarial instrument) and a higher likelihood to re-offend. Further, stepwise regression analysis revealed that social desirability added significantly unique variance in the prediction of violent recidivism. The authors propose that impression management may be an enduring person-based characteristic within an offender sample rather than a situationally determined response style. The variance associated with this characterological information is proposed to be the source of the unique predictive variance.

Risk appraisal and management of violent behavior.

To help clinicians enhance the safety of the public, hospital staff, and patients and improve patient management, this article briefly reviews recent empirical work on appraisal of the risk of violence and the management of violent individuals. Research on the prediction, management, and treatment of violent persons published in the last decade was reviewed. Risk appraisal research indicates that violence is predictable in some populations. The factors most highly and consistently related to risk are historical, including age, sex, past antisocial and violent conduct, psychopathy, aggressive childhood behavior, and substance abuse. Major mental disorder and psychiatric disturbance are poor predictors of violence. Actuarial methods are more accurate in predicting risk than unaided clinical judgment, which is a poor index. The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide has been shown to be a reliable and accurate actuarial instrument. Well-controlled studies have shown the effectiveness of behavior therapy and of behavioral staff training programs to reduce violence by persons in institutions, chronic psychiatric patients, and other populations. Otherwise, little is known about what psychotherapeutic or pharmacological treatments reduce violent recidivism by which clients under what circumstances. Recent work on the neurophysiology of aggression holds exciting promise but does not yet provide a scientific basis for prescriptive treatment. The most exciting and promising avenues for research on the management of violence lie in the joining of two scientific paths to understanding violence--biology and psychology.