Actual Wins Research Articles

Is offense worth more than defense and pitching? Marginal revenue product and revenue sharing in major league baseball

PurposeSports economists have consistently found that winning positively impacts team revenue fans prefer to allocate their entertainment dollars to winning teams. Previous research has also found that fans do not have a preference for how their team wins. However, this research ignores the significant variability in revenue that can exist between teams with similar attendance figures. The authors contribute to the literature by testing whether profit maximizing teams should pay different amounts for different types of production by estimating the marginal revenue product of a win due to offense, defense and pitching.Design/methodology/approachUsing data from the 2010–2017 Major League Baseball seasons and an Ordinary Least Squares-Fixed Effects approach, the authors test whether a unit of offensive, defensive and pitching production generates differing amounts of team revenue both before and after revenue sharing. The authors then test if team Wins Above Replacement is a good approximation of actual wins while accounting for the previously observed nonlinear relationship between wins and revenue.FindingsThe authors found that marginal revenue product estimates in the postrevenue sharing model for mowar, pwar and dwar are nearly identical to each other. Further, after predicting prerevenue sharing, the authors find that fans have no preference for mowar, pwar or dwar play styles.Originality/valueThe findings illustrate that team decision-makers appear to be acting irrationally by paying more for offense than they do for defense. Thus, the findings suggest that team decision-makers should value defensive wins and pitching wins at the same rate as offensive wins on the free agent market.

Sport Fan Evaluations of a Major League Baseball Season: Key Predictors and Influence on Future Evaluations and Consumption Behaviors

ABSTRACTThe current study examined fan evaluations of Major League Baseball team performance for a previous season as well as predictions of, and consumption expectations for, an upcoming season. With respect to evaluations of the recently completed season, appraisals were positively predicted by team identification, actual wins, and the number of playoff series played; evaluations were negatively predicted by simply making the playoffs. As for expectations for the next season, evaluations of the previous season, team identification, and actual wins were key predictors as those with more positive evaluations, higher levels of identification, and rooting for teams with fewer wins expected better performances from their team. Regarding consumption, team identification and expectations for the upcoming year were frequent predictors of a variety of consumption forms (e.g. attendance at home games, television viewing).

Building a Physician Culture for Healthcare Transformation: A Hospitalʼs Leadership Challenge

Engaging and integrating physicians has become the veritable "brass ring" for many hospital systems: many attempts and few actual wins. This is especially true in California's managed care environment and for public entities such as Palomar Health in Escondido, California. Our commitment to engage and integrate physicians continues to be a vital element of a larger cultural shift toward delivery of care that puts the patients' needs first. A key determinant of success has been the ability to align a diverse medical staff culture with administrative priorities. This alignment involves a carefully executed strategy and a structure to build a collective identity among diverse players. Palomar Health is in the third year of the journey. Some of the critical milestones have been the implementation of a physician leadership development process, creation of a physician onboarding process to codify the desired physician culture, delineation of roles and expectations for physician leadership, and formalization of dyad and triad partnerships between physicians and their clinical and administrative partners.

Near-wins and near-losses in gambling: a behavioral and facial EMG study.

This study investigated responses to near-wins (i.e., nonwin outcomes that were close to a major win, and their counterpart, near-losses (nonwin outcomes that are proximal to a major loss) in a decision-making task, measuring (a) luck ratings, (b) adjustment of bet amount, and (c) facial muscle reactivity at zygomaticus and corrugator sites. Compared to full-misses, near-wins decreased self-perceived luck and near-losses increased self-perceived luck, consistent with the effects of upward versus downward counterfactual thinking, respectively. Wins and losses both increased zygomaticus reactivity, and losses selectively enhanced corrugator reactivity. Near-wins heightened zygomaticus activity, but did not affect corrugator activity, thus showing a similar response pattern to actual wins. There were no significant facial EMG effects of near-losses. We infer that near-wins engender some appetitive processing, despite their objective nonwin status.

Using Sound to Unmask Losses Disguised as Wins in Multiline Slot Machines

Losses disguised as wins (LDWs) are slot machine outcomes where participants bet on multiple lines and win back less than their wager. Despite losing money, the machine celebrates these outcomes with reinforcing sights and sounds. Here, we sought to show that psychophysically and psychologically, participants treat LDWs as wins, but that we could expose LDWs as losses by using negative sounds as feedback. 157 participants were allocated into one of three conditions: a standard sound condition where LDWs, despite being losses, are paired with winning sights and sounds; a silent condition, where LDWs are paired with silence; and a negative sound condition where LDWs and regular losses are both followed by a negative sound. After viewing a paytable, participants conducted 300 spins on a slot machine simulator while heart rate deceleration (HRD) and skin conductance responses (SCRs) were monitored. Participants were then shown 20 different spin outcomes including LDWs and asked whether they had won or lost on that outcome. Participants then estimated on how many spins (out of 300) they won more than they wagered. SCRs were similar for losses and LDWs (both smaller than actual wins). HRD, however, was steeper for both wins and LDWs, compared to losses. In the standard condition, a majority of participants (mis)categorized LDWs as wins, and significantly overestimated the number of times they actually won. In the negative sound condition, this pattern was reversed; most participants correctly categorized LDWs as losses, and they gave high-fidelity win estimates. We conclude that participants both think and physiologically react to LDWs as though they are wins, a miscategorization that misleads them to think that they are winning more often than they actually are. Sound can be used to effectively prevent this misconception and unmask the disguise of LDWs.

Inverse VIX Futures ETNs: Caveat Emptor

This article examines the performance of 11 inverse volatility exchange-traded notes (ETNs) and 11 portfolios, consisting of an ETN and the S&amp;P 500 Index, resulting in a total of 22 portfolios. Using risk-adjusted returns, actual wins versus expected wins, and two holding periods, the results establish that only the XXV consistently produces higher risk-adjusted returns than the S&amp;P 500 regardless of the testing criteria. The SVXY also stands out as superior but underperforms the S&amp;P 500 when the holding period is lengthened. The XIV is a strong performer relative to the S&amp;P, but weaknesses are noted when the ranking criteria, holding period, or portfolio construction are altered. Finally, the benefits of portfolio diversification are found to be insufficient to outperform the S&amp;P 500 for 10 of the 11 constructed portfolios. The pattern of the funds’ returns is such that it causes a reduction in, or even a reversal of, the benefits of portfolio diversification, regardless of the timeframe or ranking criteria applied. <b>TOPICS:</b>Volatility measures, exchange-traded funds and applications, passive strategies

The Impact of Jackpots on EGM Gambling Behavior: A Review

This paper reviews literature on how jackpots influence Electronic Gaming Machine (EGM) gambling behaviour. Most of the available evidence addresses the motivational effect of the mere presence of EGM jackpots on play, as actual wins are relatively rare for individual gamblers. The review identifies a distinction between rational, biased and irrational motivations that attract people to EGM jackpots. The evidence suggests that EGM jackpots should generate additional consumption on EGMs above machines that do not have such lottery-like features. Rational motivations are likely to lead to consumer surplus, whereas biased and irrational motivations are likely to contribute to excessive consumption. Moreover, there is evidence that excessive gambling consumption is strongly associated with gambling-related harm. Future research should identify how the structural features of different types of jackpots; such as progressive, deterministic, hidden, mystery, linked and wide-area jackpots; may differentially appeal to rational, biased and irrational gambling motivations. Jackpots are common feature of EGM games, and therefore it is important to have a better understanding of how jackpot features influence play on the machines.