Actual Voting Research Articles

Can Inaccurate Beliefs About Incumbents be Changed? And Can Reframing Change Votes?

Can independent groups change voters’ beliefs about an incumbent’s positions? Does reframing how candidates’ are perceived by changing beliefs about their positions influence actual voter choices? Past laboratory and observational research suggests that candidate reframing is difficult and of little consequence; because the messages must be believed despite competing messages, counter-framing, and misinformation. We report the results of a field experiment conducted during a highly competitive 2008 U.S. Senate election showing that independent organizations can meaningfully reframe candidates, and that reframing can affect voter choices. Two pro-choice organizations administered an inexpensive mail and phone intervention correcting a prevalent false belief that the incumbent was pro-choice. This modest reframing intervention enduringly corrected the beliefs of one-third of misinformed participants, and induced a sizable proportion to align their vote choices with their policy priorities.

Candidate Genes and Voter Turnout: Further Evidence on the Role of 5-HTTLPR

Recently in this journal, Charney and English (2012) presented an extensive critique of candidate gene association studies using the widely noted Fowler and Dawes (2008) article on the relationship between self-reported voter turnout and both 5-HTT (serotonin transporter) and MAOA (monoamine oxidase A) as the driving example of their evaluation. Reanalysis of the Fowler and Dawes data by Charney and English, based on four critiques of candidate gene studies, led to the conclusion that neither polymorphism is related to variations in turnout. We add to this empirical debate by conducting an independent test using an original dataset containing 5-HTT data and two separate participation variables: self-reported participation and actual voting records. Our results confirm the original conclusions by Fowler and Dawes on 5-HTT, but also support several of the critiques suggested by Charney and English. We conclude by offering suggestions for the way candidate gene association studies should be interpreted by the discipline and processed by journal editors.

Brief implicit association test: Validity and utility in prediction of voting behavior

We employed the Brief Implicit Association Test (a recently developed short version of IAT) to measure implicit political attitudes toward four political parties running for Serbian parliament. To test its criterion validity, we measured voting intention and actual voting behavior. In addition, we introduced political involvement as a potential moderator of the BIAT?s predictive and incremental validity. The BIAT demonstrated good internal and predictive validity, but lacked incremental validity over self-report measures. Predictive power of the BIAT was moderated by political involvement - the BIAT scores were stronger predictors of voting intention and behavior among voters highly involved in politics.

Voter overrepresentation, vote misreporting, and turnout bias in postelection surveys

Figures from postelection surveys often grossly overestimate election turnout. Two distinct phenomena are responsible for this gap: overrepresentation of actual voters and vote misreporting by actual nonvoters among survey respondents. Previous accounts of turnout bias are inconclusive in that they either focus on a single component, or fail to separate between the two. In this paper, we formally decompose turnout bias in election surveys into its constituent parts, assess their empirical prevalence and heterogeneity using an extensive collection of 49 vote validation studies from six countries, and employ Bayesian meta regression techniques to account for cross-study differences. Our results indicate that both election and survey characteristics such as actual voter turnout and survey response rates differentially affect the components of turnout bias. We conclude with a discussion of the threats and potentials of our findings for survey-based comparative electoral research.

Dynamic Bayesian analysis for irregularly and incompletely observed contingency tables

Pre-election surveys are usually conducted several times to forecast election results before the actual voting. It is common that each survey includes a substantial number of non-responses and that the successive survey results are seen as a stochastic multinomial time series evolving over time. We propose a dynamic Bayesian model to examine how multinomial time series evolve over time for the irregularly observed contingency tables and to determine how sensitively the dynamic structure reacts to an unexpected event, such as a candidate scandal. Further, we test whether non-responses are non-ignorable to determine if non-responses need to be imputed for better forecast. We also suggest a Bayesian method that overcomes the boundary solution problem and show that the proposed method outperforms the previous Bayesian methods. Our dynamic Bayesian model is applied to the two pre-election surveys for the 2007 Korea presidential candidate election and for the 1998 Ohio general election.

Do Implicit Attitudes Predict Actual Voting Behavior Particularly for Undecided Voters?

The prediction of voting behavior of undecided voters poses a challenge to psychologists and pollsters. Recently, researchers argued that implicit attitudes would predict voting behavior particularly for undecided voters whereas explicit attitudes would predict voting behavior particularly for decided voters. We tested this assumption in two studies in two countries with distinct political systems in the context of real political elections. Results revealed that (a) explicit attitudes predicted voting behavior better than implicit attitudes for both decided and undecided voters, and (b) implicit attitudes predicted voting behavior better for decided than undecided voters. We propose that greater elaboration of attitudes produces stronger convergence between implicit and explicit attitudes resulting in better predictive validity of both, and less incremental validity of implicit over explicit attitudes for the prediction of voting behavior. However, greater incremental predictive validity of implicit over explicit attitudes may be associated with less elaboration.

Exit polls: surveying the American electorate, 1972-2010

Every two years, exit polls become the most widely analyzed, written about and discussed data-set in the United States. Although exit polls are known for their use in predicting elections, they are in fact the best tool for explaining election results. Exit polls are taken from actual voters, whereas pre-election polls that tally people's intended votes are estimated to overstate the number of people who will actually go to the polls. Exit Polls: Surveying the American Electorate is a groundbreaking new reference work that explores for the first time the trends in longitudinal variables asked in the national Election Day exit polls from their beginning in 1972 to the present. The book documents comparable survey items that have appeared in multiple exit polls over time. Authors Samuel J. Best and Brian S. Krueger - both election commentators for CBS news and statistical experts - present more than 100 tables and 100 figures showing the changes in the electorate and its voting patterns over time. This work represents the first time exit poll data has been combined over time to show trends. Offering unique insight into the American electorate, this important new work is meant to serve novice and expert researchers alike.

Reexamining Political Discussion and Disagreement in Church Networks: An Exit Poll Assessment

AbstractThe workplace has been hailed as a fruitful context for encountering difference, but other institutions of adult life — notably the church — have been downplayed, as it has been argued that self-selection produces political homogeneity within these environments. At the same time, much of what scholars know about social influence has been based on relatively blunt measures of disagreement, typically included in surveys conducted over multiple-week spans either before or after the actual voting has taken place. Inspired by work on the survival, loci, and democratic consequences of political disagreement, we survey voters at the moment when the literature would suggest they should be most likely to report agreement: Election Day. Wedding exit poll methodology with items that capture the major dimensions of networks and the content of discussion, we re-examine the contexts in which discussions take place and untangle issue-specific patterns of disagreement. We find evidence that church-based networks fulfill important democratic roles relative to other contexts, exposing individuals to cross-cutting discourse while serving as unique sources of information in the midst of broader electoral environments.

Why Bother Asking? The Limited Value of Self-Reported Vote Intention

How accurate are people when predicting whether they will vote? These self-predictions are used by political scientists to proxy for political motivation, and by public opinion researcher to predict election outcomes. Phone surveys from three elections, including one survey experiment, are analyzed to compare respondents’ pre-election vote intention with their actual voting behavior using administrative records (N=29,403). Unsurprisingly, many who predict that they will vote actually do not vote. More surprisingly, many who predict that they will not vote actually do vote (29% to 56%). Records of past voting behavior predicts turnout substantially better than self-prediction. Self-prediction inaccuracy is not caused by lack of cognitive salience of past voting, or by inability to recall past voting. Moreover, self-reported recall of turnout in one past election predicts future turnout just as well as self-prediction. We discuss implications for political science research, behavioral prediction, election administration policy, and public opinion.

Je t’aime … moi non plus! An empirical assessment of Euro-parliamentarians’ voting behaviour on Turkey and Turkish membership1

The article looks at the way the debate on Turkish membership has developed in the Sixth European Parliament (EP). First, it analyses the impact of the debate on Turkey on the voting dynamics in the assembly. Second, it assesses how and to what extent Euro-parliamentarians’ individual view of Turkey and Turkish membership influence their actual voting behaviour. The analysis suggests that the issue of Turkish membership has a very divisive impact on the voting dynamics and voting alignments in the EP. Given its national and political significance, the issue seems to determine ad hoc voting blocs only imperfectly matching Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) individual party affiliation.

Actual Versus Perceived Performance of Judges

Claims of judicial bias are easy to make, but studies supporting such claims often use flawed methodology. Claims may be based on incomplete samples of a judge’s work or fail to account for the case assignment process’ influence on the merits of the judges’ cases. This Article explores the relation between perceptions of bias and the underlying reality of judicial behavior. It reports the results of a survey of the Israeli legal community’s perceptions of Israel Supreme Court justices’ preferences in criminal cases and compares the survey results with justices’ actual votes in two years of criminal cases. Justices’ actual voting patterns in mandatory jurisdiction criminal cases are not correlated with pro-state or pro-defendant perceptions of them. Justices’ votes in the much smaller pool of discretionary jurisdiction cases are more consistent with perceptions of justices’ positions than are their votes in mandatory cases. Media reports of justices as pro-state or pro-defendant also correlate reasonably well with perceptions of justices. Perceptions of justices’ tendencies vary significantly across subgroups of the legal community with some evidence suggesting that both state and defense attorneys tend to view justices as hostile to their clients’ positions. Our findings suggest that a legal community’s perceptions of highly visible judges on a country’s highest court, can substantially differ from judges’ actual behavior in the mass of cases.

Institutional Investors as Minority Shareholders*

We examine the link between minority shareholders’ rights and corporate governance by studying institutional investors’ voting patterns in a concentrated ownership environment. Institutions rarely vote against insider-sponsored proposals even when the law empowers the minority. Institutions vote against compensation-related proposals more often than against related party transactions even when minority shareholders cannot influence outcomes. Potentially conflicted institutions are more likely to vote for insiders’ proposals than stand-alone investors, regardless of their effect on outcomes. A plausible conclusion is that empowering minority shareholders affects the selection of proposals but not actual voting; another is that empowering minority shareholders is ineffective without addressing conflicts of interest.

Increasing Youth Participation: The Case for a National Voter Pre-Registration Law

Lagging youth participation rates threaten participatory democracy and undermine the representation of young people's interests in elected government. However, the percentage of registered youth who actually cast ballots is very high. The correlation between registration and actual voter participation suggests that when given assistance and greater opportunities to register, young citizens will vote. This Note proposes a national pre-registration law that would allow voter registration to begin at age sixteen. Such a law would be feasible, constitutional, and politically viable and may increase not only the voter participation of young people, but also the socioeconomic diversity of the electorate.

The political economy of immigration in a direct democracy: The case of Switzerland

In this paper, we analyze the determination of immigration policy in a direct democracy setting. We formulate a model of voting and participation behavior integrating instrumental and expressive motivations. The model is estimated using data drawn from a survey carried out after a vote in Switzerland in 2000 on a popular initiative proposing to implement immigration restrictions. The model enables us to recover estimates of participation costs and preferences towards immigration and analyze how these preferences are translated into actual voting outcomes. The results reveal a substantial gap (“participation bias”) between attitudes towards immigration in the general population (43% favorable to restrictions) and the outcome of the vote (26%).

Putting voter turnout in a longitudinal and contextual perspective: An analysis of actual participation data

Based on a unique panel data-set of actual voter turnout covering 58 ballots and 12 years in the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, we analyze political participation from a longitudinal and contextual perspective. Focusing on a small number of individual sociological factors we hypothesize about how the impact of these factors varies over time and as a function of different institutional ballot characteristics. By applying multilevel models for growth, we find suggestive evidence for three age effects: period, aging, and cohort. While the data exhibit the expected convergence in turnout between Geneva and non-Geneva citizens over time, the results suggest that women had already caught up with men by the beginning of our study. The results are less straightforward, but not less interesting, with regard to institutional variables, which interact with age, but not with sex or citizenship status.

What I Like About You: A Multilevel Study of Shareholder Discontent with Director Monitoring

Each year shareholders, via exercise of their proxy votes, have the opportunity to voice their support or displeasure with firms and director nominees. Examining over 2,000 Fortune 500 director nominees, we explore those indicators available to shareholders at the time of directors' (re)election to provide insight into shareholder discontent with director monitoring. By studying actual voting behaviors, we provide new perspective to understanding director elections as a governance process. Employing a multilevel approach, we find support for agency-theoretic relationships between several firm and director characteristics and shareholder opposition to directors seeking (re)election to the board. At the firm level, we find that CEO compensation level and board size are positively related to the withholding of shareholder votes in director elections, a behavior indicative of shareholder discontent. Complementing these findings, at the director level, we find that affiliated director status, tenure, and number of outside directorships are positively related, and director block ownership is negatively related to shareholder discontent with director monitoring.

Nonmarket valuation by prediction markets

This study investigated prediction markets as a tool for use in nonmarket valuation. Although market-based predictions were not always accurate, a simple average of individuals’ stated that expectations provided a remarkably accurate depiction of actual voting behaviour.

The Demand for Social Insurance: Does Culture Matter?

Can different social groups develop different demands for social insurance of risks to health and work? We study this issue across language groups in Switzerland. Language defines social groups and Swiss language groups are separated by a clear geographic border. Actual levels of social insurance are identical on either side of the within state segments of the language border. We can therefore study the role of culture in shaping the demand for social insurance. Specifically, we contrast at the language border actual voting decisions on country-wide changes to social insurance programs. Key results indicate substantially higher support for expansions of social insurance among residents of Latin-speaking (i.e. French, Italian, or Romansh) border municipalities compared to their German-speaking neighbors in adjacent municipalities. We consider three possible explanations for this finding: informal insurance, ideology, and the media. We find that informal insurance does not vary enough to explain stark differences in social insurance. However, differences in ideology and segmented media markets are potentially important explanatory factors.

Altruism at the ballots: Predicting political attitudes and behavior

The role of stable individual differences for political ideologies is quite undisputed. Herein, we add texture to the recent finding that dispositional altruism plays a noteworthy role for political orientation. More precisely, besides aiming to replicate this link, we assumed that altruism also influences hypothetical and actual voting behavior as well as endorsement of specific, currently debated political agendas. In a study which comprised two times of measurement prior to and after a nation-wide election in Germany, support for these hypotheses was obtained. Indeed, dispositional altruism was shown to consistently predict both attitudinal and behavioral criteria in the realm of politics.

Political ad portraits: a visual analysis of viewer reaction to online political spoof advertisements

The democratization of the Internet and the growing popularity of amateur video production have given rise to historic levels of voter engagement. In recent times, the populace has turned to YouTube and other similar websites to publicly voice their opinions through the posting of, and response to, amateur political videos. Political communication and campaign managers frequently struggle to consolidate, analyse, and respond to the vast array of commentary posted on the Internet in reply to these videos. The ability to quickly consolidate and interpret viewer responses to political videos provides campaign and communications' managers the opportunity to quickly make policy, positioning, or image changes. This is especially valuable considering that viewer responses provide a potentially unbiased picture of actual voter sentiment. Using the visualization software, Leximancer, we show how conversations around online political spoof videos can be mapped, interpreted, and used as a basis for strategic brand decision-making. We discuss the implications of our findings, outline the technique's limitations, and trace avenues for further research. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.