Actual Reductions Research Articles

The research of net carbon reduction model for CCS-EOR projects and cases study

This paper develops a calculation model of net carbon reduction for CCS-EOR, which is calculated by one minus the new generation CO2 by energy consumption during the processes of capture, transportation, injection and the recovery, meanwhile adding the re-injection CO2 content. By taking the CCS-EOR projects with the capacity of 0.5 million tons CO2 per year in the coal-fired power plant, coal chemical plant and chemical fertiliser plant as examples, we calculate the actual emission reductions and energy consumption per ton of CO2 with referencing to the current mainstream technology level. The results show that the net carbon reduction values in the two situations without and with recovery process of associated gas are respectively 0.4965 and 0.3951, 0.7624 and 0.6610, 0.7815 and 0.68 tons CO2, and the energy consumption values are 5.7405 and 6.6117, 2.7095 and 3.5807, 2.49185 and 3.36305 GJ in the three different plants.

The research of net carbon reduction model for CCS-EOR projects and cases study

This paper develops a calculation model of net carbon reduction for CCS-EOR, which is calculated by one minus the new generation CO2 by energy consumption during the processes of capture, transportation, injection and the recovery, meanwhile adding the re-injection CO2 content. By taking the CCS-EOR projects with the capacity of 0.5 million tons CO2 per year in the coal-fired power plant, coal chemical plant and chemical fertiliser plant as examples, we calculate the actual emission reductions and energy consumption per ton of CO2 with referencing to the current mainstream technology level. The results show that the net carbon reduction values in the two situations without and with recovery process of associated gas are respectively 0.4965 and 0.3951, 0.7624 and 0.6610, 0.7815 and 0.68 tons CO2, and the energy consumption values are 5.7405 and 6.6117, 2.7095 and 3.5807, 2.49185 and 3.36305 GJ in the three different plants.

The Effect of Trade Liberalisation on Poverty in Nigeria: A Micro–Macro Framework

ABSTRACTDespite the deployment of several policy prescriptions towards ameliorating poverty in Nigeria, the incidence has remained pervasive. Therefore, this paper seeks to examine the impact of trade liberalisation on poverty in Nigeria. A major contribution is the use of an integrated computable general equilibrium microsimulation model, derived from Winters’ trade liberalisation framework that focused on product and factor market channels. The model was calibrated with data inputs drawn from a 2006 social accounting matrix that was reconciled with heterogeneous households’ income and expenditure data obtained from the 2004 Nigerian living standard survey. Policy simulations that reflected actual trade reductions were carried out while rural and urban poverty effects associated with trade liberalisation were computed using the Foster–Greer–Thoerbecke index. Findings reveal the moderate poverty-reducing effect of agriculture and manufacturing sector trade liberalisation with the effect being relatively more pronounced in urban centres. The weak sectoral linkages (particularly between agriculture and manufacturing) combined with the low income and price effects partly explained these poverty-reducing outcomes. The study concludes that trade liberalisation cannot be solely relied upon by the government to address the rising incidence of poverty in Nigeria and therefore, should be used as a complimentary policy to alleviate poverty.

Long-term predictions of ecosystem acidification and recovery

This paper considers the long-term (500year) consequences of continued acid deposition, using a small forested catchment in S. England as an example. The MAGIC acidification model was calibrated to the catchment using data for the year 2000, and run backwards in time for 200years, and forwards for 500. Validation data for model predictions were provided by various stream and soil measurements made between 1977 and 2013. The model hindcast suggests that pre-industrial stream conditions were very different from those measured in 2000. Acid Neutralising Capacity (ANC) was +150μeqL−1 and pH7.1: there was little nitrate (NO3). By the year 2000, acid deposition had reduced the pH to 4.2 and ANC to c. −100μeqL−1, and NO3 was increasing in the stream. The future state of the catchment was modelled using actual deposition reductions up to 2013, and then based on current emission reduction commitments. This leads to substantial recovery, to pH6.1, ANC +43μeqL−1, though it takes c. 250years. Then, however, steady acidification resumes, due to continued N accumulation in the catchment and leaching of NO3. Soil data collected using identical methods in 1978 and 2013 show that MAGIC correctly predicts the direction of change, but the observed data show more extreme changes – reasons for this are discussed. Three cycles of forest growth were modelled – this reduces NO3 output substantially during the active growth phase, and increases stream pH and ANC, but acidifies the soil which continues to accumulate nitrogen. The assumptions behind these results are discussed, and it is concluded that unmanaged ecosystems will not return to a pre-industrial state in the foreseeable future.

On the Importance of Baseline Setting in Carbon Offsets Markets

Incorporating carbon offsets in the design of cap-and-trade programs remains a controversial issue because of its potential unintended impacts on emissions. At the heart of this discussion is the issue of crediting of emissions reductions. Projects can be correctly, over- or under-credited for their actual emissions reductions. We develop a unified framework that considers the supply of offsets within a cap-and-trade program that allows us to compare the relative impact of over-credited offsets and under-credited emissions reductions on overall emissions under different levels of baseline stringency and carbon prices. In the context of a national carbon pricing scheme that includes offsets, we find that the emissions impacts of over-credited offsets can be fully balanced out by under-credited emissions reductions without sacrificing a significant portion of the overall supply of offsets, provided emissions baselines are stringent enough. In the presence of high predicted business-as-usual (BAU) emissions uncertainty or low carbon prices, to maintain the environmental integrity of the program, baselines need to be set at stringent levels, in some cases below 50 percent of predicted BAU emissions. As predicted BAU emissions uncertainty declines or as the carbon market achieves higher equilibrium prices, however, less stringent baselines can balance out the emissions impacts of over-credited offsets and under-credited emissions reductions. These results imply that to maintain environmental integrity of offsets programs, baseline stringency should be tailored to project characteristics and market conditions that influence the proportion of over-credited offsets to under-credited emissions reductions.

Improved governance for energy efficiency in housing

Current practices show that the goals of energy saving and CO2 reductions for creating an energy-neutral building stock can only be reached by strict and supportive governmental policies. In Europe the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) and the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) are driving forces for member states to develop and strengthen energy performance regulations both for new buildings (via building approval procedures) and the existing building stock (via energy performance certificates or labels). The effectiveness of these current governance instruments and their impact on actual CO2 reductions are found to be inadequate for ensuring actual (not hypothecated) energy performance is achieved. To realize the very ambitious energy-saving goals a radical rethink of regulatory systems and instruments is necessary. Building performance and the behaviour of the occupants is not well understood by policy-makers. Alternative forms of governance are needed that have more impact on the actual outcomes. Supportive governance to stimulate near-zero renovations in combination with performance guarantees is a promising approach. Furthermore, engagement with occupant practices and behaviours is needed. To ensure accurate outcomes-based governance, a better understanding of building performance and behaviours of occupants must be incorporated.

On the importance of baseline setting in carbon offsets markets

Incorporating carbon offsets in the design of cap-and-trade programs remains a controversial issue because of its potential unintended impacts on emissions. At the heart of this discussion is the issue of crediting of emissions reductions. Projects can be correctly, over- or under-credited for their actual emissions reductions. We develop a unified framework that considers the supply of offsets within a cap-and-trade program that allows us to compare the relative impact of over-credited offsets and under-credited emissions reductions on overall emissions under different levels of baseline stringency and carbon prices. In the context of a national carbon pricing scheme that includes offsets, we find that the emissions impacts of over-credited offsets can be fully balanced out by under-credited emissions reductions without sacrificing a significant portion of the overall supply of offsets, provided emissions baselines are stringent enough. In the presence of high predicted business-as-usual (BAU) emissions uncertainty or low carbon prices, to maintain the environmental integrity of the program, baselines need to be set at stringent levels, in some cases below 50 percent of predicted BAU emissions. As predicted BAU emissions uncertainty declines or as the carbon market achieves higher equilibrium prices, however, less stringent baselines can balance out the emissions impacts of over-credited offsets and under-credited emissions reductions. These results imply that to maintain environmental integrity of offsets programs, baseline stringency should be tailored to project characteristics and market conditions that influence the proportion of over-credited offsets to under-credited emissions reductions.

Longitudinal Study Evaluating the Association Between Physician Burnout and Changes in Professional Work Effort

ObjectiveTo longitudinally evaluate the relationship between burnout and professional satisfaction with changes in physicians' professional effort. Participants and MethodsAdministrative/payroll records were used to longitudinally evaluate the professional work effort of faculty physicians working for Mayo Clinic from October 1, 2008, to October 1, 2014. Professional effort was measured in full-time equivalent (FTE) units. Physicians were longitudinally surveyed in October 2011 and October 2013 with standardized tools to assess burnout and satisfaction. ResultsBetween 2008 and 2014, the proportion of physicians working less than full-time at our organization increased from 13.5% to 16.0% (P=.05). Of the 2663 physicians surveyed in 2011 and 2776 physicians surveyed in 2013, 1856 (69.7%) and 2132 (76.9%), respectively, returned surveys. Burnout and satisfaction scores in 2011 correlated with actual reductions in FTE over the following 24 months as independently measured by administrative/payroll records. After controlling for age, sex, site, and specialty, each 1-point increase in the 7-point emotional exhaustion scale was associated with a greater likelihood of reducing FTE (odds ratio [OR], 1.43; 95% CI, 1.23-1.67; P<.001) over the following 24 months, and each 1-point decrease in the 5-point satisfaction score was associated with greater likelihood of reducing FTE (OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.03-1.74; P=.03). On longitudinal analysis at the individual physician level, each 1-point increase in emotional exhaustion (OR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.05-1.55; P=.01) or 1-point decrease in satisfaction (OR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.19-2.35; P=.003) between 2011 and 2013 was associated with a greater likelihood of reducing FTE over the following 12 months. ConclusionAmong physicians in a large health care organization, burnout and declining satisfaction were strongly associated with actual reductions in professional work effort over the following 24 months.

Implications of Patient Age and ASA Physical Status for Operating Room Management Decisions.

In elderly, high-risk patients, operating room (OR) turnaround times are especially difficult to estimate, and the managerial implications of patient age and ASA physical status for OR management decisions remain unclear. We hypothesized that evaluating patient age and ASA physical status in the right model would improve accuracy of turnaround time estimates and, thus, would have decisive implications for OR management. By using various multivariate techniques, we modeled turnaround times of 13,632 OR procedures with respect to multiple variables including surgical list, age, ASA physical status, duration of the procedure, and duration of the preceding procedure. We first assessed correlations and general descriptive features of the data. Then, we constructed decision tables for OR management consisting of 50th and 95th percentiles of age/ASA-dependent estimates of turnaround times. In addition, we applied linear and generalized linear multivariate models to predict turnaround times. The forecasting power of the models was assessed in view of single cases but also in view of critical managerial key figures (50th and 95th percentile turnaround times). The models were calibrated on 80% of the data, and their predictive value was tested on the remaining 20%. We considered our data in a Monte Carlo simulation to deduce actual reductions of overutilized OR time when applying the results as presented in this work. Using the best models, we achieved an increase in predictive accuracy of 7.7% (all lists), ranging from 2.5% (general surgery) to 21.0% (trauma surgery) relative to age/ASA-independent medians of turnaround times. All models decreased the forecasting error, signifying a relevant increase in planning accuracy. We constructed a management decision table to estimate age/ASA-dependent turnaround time for OR scheduling at our hospital. The decision tables allow OR managers at our hospital to schedule procedures more accurately. Evaluation of patient age and ASA physical status as variables can help to better predict turnaround times, which can facilitate scheduling, for example, to schedule overlapping induction rooms, to reduce overutilized OR time by optimizing allocation of patients to several ORs, and to improve logistics of prioritizing transportation of advanced age/high ASA physical status patients to the OR.

An exploratory path analysis of attitudes, behaviors and summer water consumption in the Portland Metropolitan Area

We examined the underlying attitudinal and behavioral factors of summer water consumption among Portland Metropolitan Area households by combining survey responses from households and corresponding empirical water consumption data. Path analysis shows that pro-conservation attitudes regarding water usage (even when controlling for property size and other demographic variables) were strong predictors of actual reductions in summer water consumption. Furthermore, these self-reported attitudes appear to directly impact specific water consumption behaviors identified in the survey, with potentially significant impact in two of three key areas of water conservation strategies: landscaping, adapting conservation technology, but not habitual use. We draw implications for focused educational programs promoting awareness of water conservation issues and monitoring their impacts and efficacy.

Streambank sediment loading rates at the watershed scale and the benefit of riparian protection

AbstractStreambank erosion is a pathway for sediment and nutrient loading to streams, but insufficient data exist on the magnitude of this source. Riparian protection can significantly decrease streambank erosion in some locations, but estimates of actual sediment load reductions are limited. The objective of this research was to quantify watershed‐scale streambank erosion and estimate the benefits of riparian protection. The research focused on Spavinaw Creek within the Eucha‐Spavinaw watershed in eastern Oklahoma, where composite streambanks consist of a small cohesive topsoil layer underlain by non‐cohesive gravel. Fine sediment erosion from 2003 to 2013 was derived using aerial photography and processed in ArcMap to quantify eroded area. ArcMap was also utilized in determining the bank retreat rate at various locations in relation to the riparian vegetation buffer width. Box and whisker plots clearly showed that sites with riparian vegetation had on average three times less bank retreat than unprotected banks, statistically significant based on non‐parametric t‐tests. The total soil mass eroded from 2003 to 2013 was estimated at 7.27 × 107 kg yr.−1, and the average bank retreat was 2.5 m yr.−1. Many current erosion models assume that fluvial erosion is the dominant stream erosion process. Bank retreat was positively correlated with stream discharge and/or stream power, but with considerable variability, suggesting that mass wasting plays an important role in streambank erosion within this watershed. Finally, watershed monitoring programs commonly characterize erosion at only a few sites and may scale results to the entire watershed. Selection of random sites and scaling to the watershed scale greatly underestimated the actual erosion and loading rates. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

Predicting energy consumption and savings in the housing stock: A performance gap analysis in the Netherlands

Predicting energy consumption and savings in the housing stock: A performance gap analysis in the Netherlands

Predicting energy consumption and savings in the housing stock: A performance gap analysis in the Netherlands

Predicting energy consumption and savings in the housing stock: A performance gap analysis in the Netherlands

Do Centers of Excellence Reduce Health Care Costs? Evidence From the US Veterans Health Administration Centers for Epilepsy

In 2009, the US Veterans Health Administration created several Epilepsy Centers of Excellence (ECoE) to improve the health of veterans undergoing treatment for epilepsy. A study comparing epilepsy health care at these ECoEs and at non-ECoEs from 2009 to 2011 shows that ECoEs perform better according to some metrics (average cost for high-cost epilepsy procedures and actual cost reductions over time) and less effectively according to others (patient volume and average cost for low-cost epilepsy procedures). The study also reveals the difficulties in making cost of care comparisons across health care entities. Overall, the findings suggest that the Veterans Health Administration would benefit from a triage system that channels high-cost epilepsy procedures from non-ECoEs to ECoEs. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Likely effect of adding flexible sigmoidoscopy to the English NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme: impact on colorectal cancer cases and deaths

Background:From 2013, once-only flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) at age 55 is being phased into the England National Health Service Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (NHSBCSP), augmenting biennial guaiac faecal occult blood testing (gFOBT) at ages 60–74. Here, we project the impact of this change on colorectal cancer (CRC) cases and deaths prevented in England by mid-2030.Methods:We simulated the life-course of English residents reaching age 55 from 2013 onwards. Model inputs included population numbers, invitation rates and CRC incidence and mortality rates. The impact of gFOBT and FS alone on CRC incidence and mortality were derived from published trials, assuming an uptake of 50% for FS and 57% for gFOBT. For FS plus gFOBT, we assumed the gFOBT effect to be 75% of the gFOBT alone impact.Results:By mid-2030, 8.5 million individuals will have been invited for once-only FS screening. Adding FS to gFOBT screening is estimated to prevent an extra 9627 (−10%) cases and 2207 (−12%) deaths by mid-2030. If FS uptake is 38% or 71%, respectively, an extra 7379 (−8%) or 13 689 (−15%) cases and 1691 (−9%) or 3154 (−17%) deaths will be prevented by mid-2030.Conclusions:Adding once-only FS at age 55 to the NHSBCSP will prevent ∼10 000 CRC cases and ∼2000 CRC deaths by mid-2030 if FS uptake is 50%. In 2030, one cancer was estimated to be prevented per 150 FS screening episodes, and one death prevented per 900 FS screening episodes. The actual reductions will depend on the FS invitation schedule and uptake rates.

Energy efficiency policies for space heating in EU countries: A panel data analysis for the period 1990–2010

We present an empirical analysis of the more than 250 space heating-focused energy efficiency policies that have been in force at the EU and national levels in the period 1990–2010. This analysis looks at the EU-14 residential sector (Pre-2004 EU-15, excluding Luxembourg) using a panel data regression analysis on unit consumption of energy for space heating (kWh/m2/year). The policies are represented as a regression variable using a semi-quantitative impact estimation obtained from the MURE Policy Database. The impacts of the policies as a whole, and subdivided into financial, regulatory, and informative policies, are examined. The correlation between the actual reductions in demand and the estimated impact of regulatory policies is found to be stronger than the corresponding correlations with the respective impacts of financial policies and informative polices. Together with the well-known market barriers to energy efficiency that exist in the residential sector, these findings suggest that regulatory policy measures be given a high priority in the design of an effective pathway towards the EU-wide goals for space heating energy.

Fostering absolute reductions in resource use: the potential role and feasibility of practice-oriented design

This article explores the potential role of design in fostering absolute reductions in everyday consumption. It links ambitions to achieve absolute reductions to concepts from social theories of practice and design. Practice theory directs attention towards expectation levels, opening up questions about sufficiency. Design activity is often pointed out as a potential key instrument for creating change in sustainable directions, and the social practice as a relevant starting point for such work. Little attention is however paid to what may help and hinder practice-oriented initiatives. Consequently, this article asks what the role of design may be in fostering actual reductions in resource use when social practices continuously are in flux, and, what the space for action is, given societal arrangements rooted in ideas about boundless consumption.This is done on a theoretical and empirical basis, by drawing on practice theory and system innovation theory, and a case study on television entertainment practices and work by related actors. This is relevant given the increasing contribution of electronics to the environmental impact of households. The analysis shows how standardisation and predominantly technical experience and value definitions have consequences for resulting resource use levels and the feasibility of creating change. The lack of policy attention to the relationship between resource use and practical value may prevent actors from making use of the theoretical space for practice-oriented action. The article concludes by presenting recommendations for policy and practice on how to foster further exploration of it.

Quantifying efficiency technology improvements in U.S. cars from 1975–2009

Quantitative measurements of historic improvements in fuel efficiency technology help to illuminate the feasibility of future fuel economy standards. Past investigations have produced widely varying estimates of this rate of improvement, though all seem to indicate that fuel consumption reductions implied by the 2025 U.S. CAFE standards cannot be met solely through technological improvements at historic rates. In this paper, we use the characteristics of U.S. cars between 1975 and 2009 to estimate that holding all else equal, a 1% increase in weight increases a car’s fuel consumption by 0.69%, and a 1% reduction in 0–97km/h acceleration time increases fuel consumption by 0.44%. These tradeoff parameters are combined with the results of related work by the authors and others, yielding a more comprehensive measure of technological improvements than has been previously reported. When accounting for all of these sources of improvement, we conclude that the per-mile (or per-kilometer) fuel consumption of new cars in the U.S. could have been reduced by 5% per year from 1975 to 1990, if acceleration, features, and functionality had remained at their 1975 levels. Approximately 80% of this potential was realized as actual reductions in fuel consumption. Between 1990 and 2009, in contrast, technological improvement averaged just 2.1% per year, only 34% of which was realized as actual fuel consumption reductions. To meet the 2025 CAFE standards for cars without sacrificing capabilities that consumers have come to expect, technology must improve quickly enough to reduce fuel consumption by 4.3% per year for 14years — considerably faster than has occurred since 1990, but consistent with the pace of improvements observed between 1975 and 1990.

Catheter-associated bloodstream infection prevention: what is missing?

The most frequent invasive procedure performed by nurses in acute care is venous access with 80% of patients in the USA, 60% of patients in the UK, and 33–67% of patients in Australia requiring intravenous access ( Lavery, 2005 ; Hadaway, 2012 ; Wallis, 2014 ). Not only are vascular access devices the primary avenue for treatment administration, but many patients receive multiple intravenous medications and have more than one vascular access device (VAD). High usage of VADs, both central and peripheral, is not without risk of infection or other complications. Concerns regarding catheter-associated bloodstream infections are common with a general focus on central venous access devices (CVAD). Prevention for central line associated bloodstream infections (CLABSI) is concentrated on compliance with the five components of the central line bundle with variable success ( Pronovost, 2006 ; Blot, 2014 ; Hsu, 2014 ). Preventive efforts and the application of new safety devices have resulted in actual cost reductions in addition to creating greater patient safety, reduced morbidity and mortality as well as an improved turnover of acute care bed space. Despite these worldwide efforts and general percentage reductions in infection over the past five years, more than 800 medium and large hospitals in the USA continue to have high CLABSI rates as do countless other hospitals throughout the world ( Wise, 2013 ; Herzer, 2014 ).

Nausea Control by Needling at Acupuncture Point Neiguan (PC6) During an Intraoral Impression-Taking Procedure

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of acupuncture point PC6 (Neiguan) in controlling nausea during intraoral impression taking. This study was conducted in Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brazil. The sample consisted of 33 adult volunteers with nausea, who were randomly divided into control and study groups, and treated with nonpenetrating sham acupuncture and real acupuncture, respectively, at acupoint PC6. The two groups had two maxillary impressions taken, one prior to acupuncture and the other after acupuncture. The nausea assessment was made using the visual analog scale, Gagging Severity Index (GSI), and Gagging Prevention Index. Volunteers' expectation that nausea would be reduced through acupuncture was also assessed. For statistical analysis, we used the t test and the Spearman correlation (p < 0.05). When assessed by Gagging Severity Index/Gagging Prevention Index, nausea was reduced in the real acupuncture group (p < 0.01). In the visual analog scale assessment, similar reductions of nausea were noted in both groups (p > 0.05). No correlation existed between the expected and the actual reductions in nausea. Our results indicate that acupoint PC6 was effective for controlling nausea during the maxillary impression-taking procedure. Patients' expectation did not influence the results.