Actual Patterns Research Articles

A stomatal optimization model adopting a conservative strategy in response to soil moisture stress

Leaf stomata play a central role in mediating the exchange of water vapor and carbon dioxide between the atmosphere and the terrestrial ecosystems. Stomatal response to the environment presumably optimizes the trade-off between carbon uptake and water loss. Recently developed optimization models show their remarkable success in capturing empirical patterns of stomata. However, solutions of these models with different mathematical details should vary for the same environments, indicating that stomatal strategies implied in these models may differ and require further investigation. The present study proposed a novel stomatal optimization model, assuming that stomatal regulation aims to achieve a water-carbon balance shaped by a hydraulic-based weight factor (HBW model). In particular, we introduce the balancing point (BP) for analyzing the behavioral difference between models. We tested the HBW model based on set scenarios and leaf-level gas exchange data and compared it with two existing models. Results show that these models differ mainly in stomatal sensitivity to soil moisture. BP characteristics reveal the behavioral difference between models, and only the HBW model, which is more sensitive to soil moisture, captures the actual response patterns of BP to water stress well. This work emphasizes the differences in stomatal strategies among different optimization models, and provides an alternative modeling approach, which offers a more conservative stomatal strategy that can stand as a useful comparison with existing models.

The Americanization of Barbadian English

AbstractThis paper investigates attitudes and perceptions of Barbadians toward British and American English on the one hand, and the degree of structural Americanization of contemporary Barbadian English as documented in a corpus of Facebook comments on the other hand. The results indicate a discrepancy between explicitly formulated preferences and actual production patterns; while American English is devalued by most respondents, the advancement of cross‐linguistic influence of American English on the levels of orthography and lexicon of Barbadian English is undeniable. The findings further suggest a continued linguistic identification with British norms in the perception of many Barbadians, while the awareness of an emerging local standard variety is only slowly gaining ground.

Pattern Matching-Based Structural Damage Identification Using Mode Shape Difference Ratio with Limited Sensors

In order to rapidly identify structural damage, a pattern matching-based structural damage identification using mode shape difference ratio with limited sensors is proposed. The mode shape difference ratio is proposed as the damage indicator for pattern matching. The natural frequencies and mode shapes of the structure under different damage scenarios are obtained by the numerical simulation with finite element software. Using the simulation results, the damage pattern library based on mode shape difference ratio matrix is constructed. Afterwards, for the real structure to be test, the response power spectrum ratio is calculated with the measured acceleration responses. Then the mode shape difference ratio matrix of real structure is constructed using the power spectrum ratio of the measured responses with limited sensors. With the reciprocal of correlation coefficient difference (ROCCD) used as the pattern matching approach, the actual structural damage pattern is matched with the pattern in the damage pattern library. The pattern in the library corresponding to the maximum value of ROCCD is considered to be the damage condition of the structure. Finally, the numerical simulation and experiment of a four-layer interlayer shear model are investigated. The results show that the proposed method well determines the damage location and severity of the structure, and possesses excellent practicability.

Dissipative-based sampled-data control for T-S fuzzy wind turbine system via fragmented-delayed state looped functional approach

This study investigates thedissipative-based fuzzy sampled-data control scheme for variable-speed wind turbine system (WTS) by fragmented-delayed state looped functional framework. The main objective of this study is to stabilize the nonlinear variable-speed WTS and enhance its dynamic performance. To do this, initially, the proposed nonlinear variable-speed WTS is transformed into linear subsystems based on the Takagi–Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy approach. Then, the concept of coupling leakage time-varying delay is proposed to construct a more generalized T-S fuzzy model. After that, to minimize design conservatism, an improved fragmented- delayed state looped-Lyapunov functional is developed to fully utilize the advantages of the variable characteristics related to the actual sampling pattern. Besides, by applying the proposed new integral inequalities, some sufficient conditions are derived to ensure the addressed system is asymptotically stable under an optimizing performance index. Finally, numerical simulations are given to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed control scheme. The essential outcome of the proposed approach is that it can provide a superior dissipative performance index under the maximal sampling period.

Cluster analysis on damage pattern recognition in carbon/epoxy composites using acoustic emission wavelet packet

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the damage pattern recognition in carbon/epoxy composite laminates by Acoustic Emission technique. Three specimens with layup of [90/0/90/0]s were fabricated and subjected to three-point bending test. The dataset was clustered and analyzed by three unsupervised algorithms, namely, k-means, Self-Organizing Map, and Fuzzy C-Means. The results show that the signals can be divided into four clusters, which correspond to matrix cracking, delamination, fiber/matrix debonding, and fiber breakage, respectively. A method of energy feature extraction based on wavelet packet decomposition was used to analyze the clustering center to obtain the frequency band with relatively high energy corresponding each damage mode further determined the actual damage pattern of these signals with disputed classification results. The results of k-means illustrated that little difference in the determination of matrix cracking, preferring to assign more signal to inter-laminar damage and higher peak frequency to fiber breakage compared to the other two algorithms. It can verify the clustering results well and k-means algorithm performs better in damage pattern recognition of composites.

Real-World Treatment Patterns and Outcomes of Patients with Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma: An Analysis Using National Health Insurance Service Database

Introduction: Available treatments for multiple myeloma (MM) have improved rapidly in recent years. However, due to huge disparities in economy, healthcare infrastructure, and accessibility to new drugs, there are big barriers to provide optimal treatment for MM patients in Asian countries. Until now, there are few data on treatment patterns for MM in real practice setting of Asian countries. In terms of continuous improvement of MM management, it is necessary to ascertain the treatment patterns for achieving optimal treatment. Therefore, we investigated the actual treatment patterns and outcomes of MM patients in Korea using the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) database. Methods: Newly diagnosed MM patients were identified from the Korean NHIS database between 1st January 2010 to 31st December 2018. Patients had diagnosis with MM (ICD-10 codes C90.0) confirmed with rare and intractable disease registration program. Patients that received at least one stem cell transplantation (SCT) were classified into SCT patients and those without SCT to non-SCT patients. SCT patients and non SCT patients were divided into before and after 1st October 2015 (reimbursement date of bortezomib/dexamethasone [Vd], bortezomib/thalidomide/dexamethasone [VTd] regimens), and 1st December 2017 (reimbursement date of lenalidomide/dexamethasone [Rd] regimen) respectively. MM treatment was defined to start from the first prescription claim including MM treatment following the diagnosis index date, and the therapies within 14-days period from the first date of each line of therapy (LOT) were considered to constitute the treatment regimen of the respective LOT. When a new MM therapy that was not part of the prior LOT appeared in the prescription claim, LOT was considered to advance to the next LOT. Treatment duration, and treatment-free interval times between LOTs were estimated up to 5th LOT. Median overall survival (OS) was assessed by Kaplan Meier. Comparison between groups was evaluated by Log rank and Wilcoxon test. Results: The study population included total of 9,986 newly diagnosed MM patients, 7,501 non-SCT and 2,485 SCT for baseline analyses. Incidence of MM gradually increased by 5.7% of an average annual percent change, from 841 in 2010 to 1,309 in 2018. The mean age of the non-SCT group was older than the SCT group (71.6±9.4 vs 56.7±6.7). The proportion of patients aged <65 was 36.9% and ≥65 was 63.1%. Regardless of SCT eligibility (<65 years), 24.9% of MM patients received SCT. Of the patient eligible for SCT, 62.0% received SCT. Those 8,367 patients (non-SCT:5,925 / SCT:2,442) with at least ≥1 prescription claims with MM treatment after index date were included for treatment pattern analyses. The proportion of patients advancing to each subsequent LOT was higher across all LOT for SCT patients (range, 44%-58%) than non-SCT patients (range, 35%-44%) and decreased with each line. Higher proportion of patients remained to receive 5th LOT in SCT patients than non-SCT (8% vs 3%). Treatment duration and treatment-free interval between LOTs decreased as the LOTs advanced in both SCT and non-SCT patients. Treatment-free interval was the longest after the 1st LOT in SCT patients which was 17.7 months (Fig. 1). The most common 1st LOT treatment regimen for the non-SCT patients was bortezomib/melphalan/prednisolone and for the SCT patients, thalidomide/dexamethasone was mostly used for induction therapy in the 1st LOT. This trend changed as new regimens were available by reimbursement in the 1st LOT: for SCT patients, to VTd; and for non-SCT patients, to Rd. The median OS of all patients was 3.36 years (95% CI: 3.22-3.50). The median OS of the SCT patients was significantly longer with median OS of 7.04 years (95% CI: 6.49-8.11) compared to 2.32 years (95% CI: 2.22-2.44) for the non-SCT patients (p<0.0001). When stratified by age and SCT, SCT patients of younger age (< 65 years) had the longest median OS of 7.10 years (95% CI: 6.56-8.20) (Fig. 2). OS was significantly improved for the SCT group after the reimbursement of Vd and VTd in the 1st LOT (p=0.0019). Conclusions: This real-world data suggests that MM treatment evolves rapidly following the reimbursement of new novel drugs, to treat patients with the most optimal treatment available. And these results show that the OS improves as new novel drugs are incorporated to the treatment. Also, SCT remains an essential treatment providing OS benefit. Figure 1View largeDownload PPTFigure 1View largeDownload PPT Close modal

All-inclusive holiday packages, tourist consumption and spending patterns at tourism destinations

ObjetivoEl objetivo de este estudio es investigar los patrones de consumo de los turistas en destino en el contexto de los paquetes vacacionales combinados en diferentes categorías de complejos turísticos. Esta investigación persigue la adquisición de un conocimiento profundo del comportamiento de la demanda que permita la aplicación de políticas de precios que aumenten los beneficios mediante la orientación de ofertas con paquetes atractivos a segmentos específicos de turistas.Diseño/metodología/enfoqueEl estudio actual se basa en los datos recogidos a través de un cuasi-experimento centrado en el análisis de las diferencias en los patrones de consumo de los huéspedes del resort en los bares del mismo durante un período de dos años (temporadas de verano 2018 y 2019), antes y después de la introducción de un paquete de refrescos con todo incluido.onclusionesLos resultados del estudio informan sobre cómo aprovechar las estrategias de agrupación según los diferentes grados de conciencia de los precios asociados a la categoría del complejo turístico considerado. Una vez que llegan al destino, los huéspedes de los complejos turísticos de categoría superior son más propensos a no consumir los artículos incluidos en un paquete precomprado y a realizar un gasto adicional significativo en comparación con los turistas alojados en complejos turísticos económicos.OriginalidadNuestro cuasi-experimento examina empíricamente las pautas de consumo reales de los huéspedes en el destino, que apenas han sido examinadas. Este estudio contribuye además al reconocimiento de herramientas de gestión útiles: los profesionales de los complejos turísticos económicos deberían diseñar cuidadosamente el enfoque del paquete en términos de su contenido, mientras que el paquete mixto como forma de estrategia de agrupación debería favorecerse en los complejos turísticos de alto nivel.

Reachable Set Estimation for T–S Fuzzy Markov Jump Systems With Time-Varying Delays via Membership Function Dependent H∞ Performance

This article considers the reachable set estimation problem and membership function dependent <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex-math notation="LaTeX">$H_\infty$</tex-math></inline-formula> performance analysis for a class of fuzzy Markov jump systems (FMJSs) with mode-dependent time-varying delays and bounded external disturbances via sampled-data control. First, mode-dependent sampled-data control for the FMJS is designed using the Takagi–Sugeno (T–S) fuzzy method. Then, a novel stochastic Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional (LKF) is constructed in mode-dependent augmented form by taking full advantage of the variable characteristics related to the actual sampling pattern. At the same time, a membership function dependent <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex-math notation="LaTeX">$H_\infty$</tex-math></inline-formula> performance index is introduced for the first time to attenuate the impact of disturbances on the closed-loop FMJS. Based on the novel <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex-math notation="LaTeX">$H_\infty$</tex-math></inline-formula> performance index and LKF, new delay-dependent conditions are derived in the framework of linear matrix inequalities to ensure stochastic stability of the closed-loop system and its reachable set is bounded by an ellipsoid in the presence of bounded disturbances. Finally, two illustrated application problems validate theoretical results with less conservatism in the sense of enlarging the sampling period and minimizing the disturbance attenuation level.

Love or like: gender effects in emotional expression in online reviews

Purpose Given the socialisation of men and women to their gender roles and expression of emotion, this study aims to investigate whether there are gender differences in the use of emotive language in electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM), specifically in online reviews. The authors propose that female reviewers will use strong emotive terms, such as love, more frequently in online reviews than do male reviewers. The authors further propose that the gender of the reviewer influences audience responses to the reviewer’s use of emotive terms in online reviews. Design/methodology/approach The authors conducted secondary data analysis of restaurant reviews (Study 1) to provide evidence on whether the gender of the reviewer affects the frequency of use of emotive terms in an online review. In addition, three separate experiments (Studies 2–4) were conducted to test the theoretical arguments. Findings The results of the secondary data analysis indicated that female online reviewers used the term “love” much more frequently in their reviews than male reviewers, whereas there was no usage difference for the term “like”. The experimental studies further showed that an emotive review by a male reviewer containing the word “love” resulted in a higher evaluation of the restaurant being reviewed than a non-emotive review containing the word “like”. This difference was stronger when the overall rating was less salient and for consumers who believe (vs do not believe) that men and women use emotional language differently. Research limitations/implications First, the paper extends our understanding of gender differences in emotional expression within the domain of eWOM and online reviews as well as our understanding of consumer responses to these gender differences. Second, the authors identify a boundary condition for these gender effects, namely, the overall rating score. Third, the authors find that consumer beliefs regarding gender stereotypes in emotional expression provide an explanation for these effects. Practical implications The results of the research indicate that the electronic algorithms operating on review sites might be modified in terms of their criteria for selecting the reviews to display to consumers, as consumer decision-makers may find greater utility in reviews written by male reviewers that contain strongly positive emotive terms. Originality/value The research extends the knowledge on gender differences in emotional expression in online reviews by demonstrating the actual usage patterns and differing responses to the emotional expressions of each gender.

New modelling approach to optimize rainwater harvesting system for non-potable uses and groundwater recharge: A case study from Israel

• A rainwater harvesting system from a building in Israel was used as a case study. • Precipitation, runoff coefficient and non-potable consumption were measured. • Measured data used to model and assess the efficiency of the system. • Results are stochastic, allowing to assess variability of the system performance. Countries with dry climates must optimize the use of natural water sources. Rainwater Harvesting (RWH) is a viable water source for non-potable uses. Besides, rainwater can also be used for managed aquifer recharge (MAR). This work discusses the combined use of RWH for toilet flushing and MAR. A mass-balance simulation was used to estimate efficiency of the combined system in a building in Israel equipped with a RWH system used for MAR only. This enabled the use of actual water consumption patterns and the development of a runoff function using rainfall and runoff measurements. By the novel use and the integration of measured dynamic data into the model, the results are stochastic and the variability and uncertainty of the performance of the RWH system could be assessed. Non-potable water savings were ∼20% for the expected cost-effective tank size, and in this case ∼40% of the rainwater was used for MAR. The stochastic approach of the combined system proved the importance of the non-potable consumption value as well as precipitation series. Finally, it is shown that the potable water savings from using rainwater for toilet flushing would represent an annual CO 2 emissions reduction of 267 kg.

DISCUSSION ON RESEARCH ACTIVITY PUBLISHED AS “ISSUES IN USING REDUCED-SIZE SPECIMEN FOR BRITTLE FRACTURE EVALUATION OF BEAM-TO-COLUMN STEEL CONNECTIONS Geometric size effect on brittle fracture properties”

Some illogical statements and improper analyses in the above paper for the size effect on brittle fracture in steel are pointed out referring to related research papers published in the past. In particular, the fracture pattern of the employed small-scale specimens is incompatible with the actual pattern observed in real-scale members in steel building structures.

Planning gaps: unexpected urban expansion in five Colombian metropolitan areas

Colombia has experienced rapid urbanization over the past three decades. Most Colombian cities doubled their urban extent in the last 10 years which resulted in a high demand for land. This research identifies urban expansion patterns in five of the largest urban agglomerations in Colombia. Urban growth is analysed using satellite images (Landsat 5) and census data to assess spatiotemporal land-use changes over a 30-year period (1990–2020). The actual urban extents are compared with each city’s land-use predictions, instruments, and regulations to ascertain whether local authorities have the capabilities to predict land demand and to guide development processes at the municipal level. The predictions made by local authorities are inaccurate and often underestimate the rates of population growth and land requirements. The findings reveal that local authorities lack the capabilities to manage urban growth and deliver sustainable urban development. This is leading to poor outcomes: low planning standards, urban informality and inefficient land use. <em><strong>Policy relevance</strong></em> This research reveals a significant gap between urban land-use policy instruments and actual urban growth patterns in Colombian cities. The findings reveal that the current urban expansion surpassed what local authorities had anticipated and allocated for land use. Although existing policies empower local authorities, their capabilities to effectively monitor and model population growth and associated land requirements are poor. This led to an underestimation of land requirements and poor planning outcomes. To improve future decision-making and management of urban growth, urban planners should use empirical data to inform urban growth scenarios: allocate sufficient land to allow for orderly growth, designate specific areas for development and provide for sufficient infrastructure.

Dry Printing of Ag–Ni Conductive Particles Using Toner-Type Printed Electronics

Printed electronics are a set of additive manufacturing methods for creating future flexible electronics on thin polymeric sheets. We proposed the toner-type, dry, page-printing of Ag–Ni composite conductive particles on flexible plastic sheets without pre-treatment. No chemical solvents are necessary to compose the inks of the electronic materials used for the toner-type printing, and no chemical treatment is required for the plastic film substrate surface. In addition, multilayer printing is simple when using toner printing because previously printed materials do not need to be resolved; furthermore, composing the thick films of the electronic materials is relatively simple. In this study, we fabricated an Ag–Ni composite toner to improve the fluidity of the toner particles compared to bare Ag particles. We successfully printed IC peripheral circuits at a resolution of 0.20 mm and demonstrated that the actual electrical circuit pattern can be formed using our method.

The relationship between eDNA density distribution and current fields around an artificial reef in the waters of Tateyama Bay, Japan

Monitoring of artificial reefs (ARs) has been conducted through such methods as visual censuses, surveys using fishing gear, and echo sounder. These methods have disadvantages: visual census is not possible at ARs in deeper waters, fishing gear surveys are invasive to fish individuals, and echo sounders have difficulty in species identification. A new AR monitoring method is required to compensate for these disadvantages. While eDNA has become a valid monitoring tool for marine biodiversities, it is influenced by degradation and transport of the molecules that affect information about the spatio-temporal distribution of fish. An understanding of the relationship between current fields and eDNA distribution, particularly in open waters, is critical when using eDNA as an index for fish aggregation at ARs. We investigated the relationship between eDNA distribution and current fields around an AR for four dominant species (Engraulis japonicus, Parapristipoma trilineatum, Scomber spp and Trachurus japonicus) in Tateyama Bay, Japan. The highest density of fish schools is formed directly above or at the upstream side of ARs. If we assume that the center of eDNA originates at these locations at an AR and eDNA is simply transported by currents, a higher density of eDNA would distribute downstream from the AR. However, our results indicate that eDNA distribution is in accord with actual fish distribution, namely eDNA densities are more abundant in the upstream side of ARs. We thus consider that eDNA distribution is more influenced by actual distribution patterns than by the transport processes.

Implementation of sustainable public procurement in China: An assessment using quantitative text analysis in large-scale tender documents

In recent years, increasing attention has been paid worldwide to the sustainable development of the economy and society. Because of its size and prevalence, public procurement has always been a powerful policy tool used to tackle issues related to the sustainability of society, economy, and environment. China has attached high priority to sustainable development, and many aspects of sustainable public procurement (SPP) have been implemented though no official documents have referred to the concept of SPP. Therefore, little is known about the actual implementation and patterns of SPP in practice. The purpose of the study is to assess the actual implementation and patterns of SPP in China. We obtained 42,369 public procurement documents for 2015–2020 using the web crawler technique and the actual implementation of SPP was assessed through the text-mining technique. The research shows that SPP is implemented in more than 82% of the documents and appears in an upward trend in the past 6 years. Several patterns of SPP implementation are also identified. First, most documents implement more than one category of SPP. Second, small and medium-sized enterprise-oriented procurement is the most implemented SPP main category, overtaking environmentally friendly procurement only by a small margin, and the procurement for the circular economy is the least implemented. Third, there seem to be some relationships between the level of SPP implementation and the award method, tender price, and contract type. Finally, there is a substantial transformation of China’s SPP toward social aspects of SPP in recent years. Policy implications, limitations, and issues for future studies are also discussed.

An Evaluation Method of Road Link Functionality Using Individual Trajectory Data and Weighted Network Analysis

Road links within a city are hierarchical according to their structure and function. Upper-level road links, such as highways and arterials, are designed to maintain higher mobility and traffic flow, while lower-level road links should be more accessible. However, depending on the origin-destination demand pattern (O-D), drivers’ route choice, land use, and urban infrastructure, the actual usage pattern of roads could be different from the designed intention. This difference ultimately puts a load on certain road links and causes traffic jams. In order to handle this issue, it is necessary to create an appropriate evaluation method for the functionality of road links in advance. The research suggests an evaluation method to examine the functionalities of the roadways by using real-world mobility data and weighted network analysis. In the study, the roles of links were defined and quantified by three network attributes, in-strength, out-strength, and betweenness centrality. Derived attributes were used to cluster links with similar travel patterns. Furthermore, the concept of link reliability was introduced to measure the reliance of the network on individual links. Those network indices make it possible to evaluate the functioning of roads based on people’s travel patterns and to detect critical links that are irreplaceable and difficult to detour. This information can be used to determine the priorities of upcoming improvements and ultimately improve the efficiency of operation and maintenance of the road link networks.

Victimization Portrayals on Popular Crime Shows & Comparisons to the NCVS

ABSTRACT Crime shows have been airing on television for over 70 years and we continuously find said shows to have high rates of viewership. But how accurate are the portrayals depicted in said shows? This research analyzes crime show drama portrayals of victimization across two time periods by analyzing 270 episodes from 11 different crime drama television series in which a clear criminal event is followed by a law enforcement investigation. Shows were chosen at Time 1 for inclusion based on popularity, longevity, accessibility, and recency; Time 2 data included a 5-year follow-up to any of the Time 1 shows still in production. Demographics and background characteristics of victims are analyzed including gender, age, race/ethnicity, occupation, military/law enforcement affiliation, parental/marital status, and prior victimization. Additionally, the relationship between offender and victim, whether the victimization was actually portrayed in the show, whether the victim was held captive, and if the victim ultimately survived or died are also addressed. Findings are discussed in comparison to what previous research from the National Crime Victimization Survey indicates actual victimization patterns to be.

Clustering Algorithm in English Language Learning Pattern Matching under Big Data Framework.

The Internet era has brought new challenges and opportunities for English learning and English teaching. At the same time, basic education is fully implementing quality education and respecting students' individual differences. The same teacher teaches the same content to the same class of students, but some students perform well, and some students perform poorly due to the influence of intellectual and nonintellectual factors. The uneven performance of students in the same class makes it very difficult for teachers to teach. In view of the current situation of university English teaching and the trend of respecting students' individual development in the new era, this study investigates the basic concept of English language learning pattern matching, its main features, and practical application in the process of university English teaching. The clustering algorithm based on the big data framework is proposed for English language learning pattern matching, which is fault-tolerant and can quickly acquire and process the big data information in English teaching. By analyzing the characteristics of the data mining method of students' English learning behavior, the method of clustering processing for students' English learning data mining and the processing method of students' English learning clustering data are explored. The method is highly adaptable and can be used for actual English language learning pattern matching, and actively explores the main path of English teaching change and innovation.

Mapping Regional Differences in Infection Rates for the Coronavirus (COVID-19): Results of a Bayesian Approach to Administrative Districts of Bavaria

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, thematic maps showing the spread of the disease have been of great public interest. From the perspective of risk communication, those maps can be problematic, since random variation or extreme values may occur and cover up the actual regional patterns. One potential solution is applying spatial smoothing methods. The aim of this study was to show changes in incidence ratios over time in Bavarian districts using spatially smoothed maps. Data on SARS-CoV-2 were provided by the Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority on 29.10.2021 and 17.02.2022. The demographic data per district are derived from the Statistical Report of the Bavarian State Office for Statistics for 2019. Four age groups per sex (<18, 18-29, 30-64,>64 years) divided into 16 time periods (01/28/2020 to 12/31/2021) were included. Maps show standardized incidence ratios (SIR) spatially smoothed by Bayesian hierarchical modelling. The SIR varied remarkably between districts. Variations occurred for each time period, showing changing regional patterns over time. Smoothed health maps are suitable for showing trends in incidence ratios over time for COVID-19 in Bavaria and offer the advantage over traditional maps in giving more realistic estimates by including neighborhood relationships. The methodological approach can be seen as a first step to explain the regional heterogeneity in the pandemic, and to support improved risk communication.

Brain Magnet: Research Triangle Park and the Idea of the Idea Economy

Brain Magnet: Research Triangle Park and the Idea of the Idea Economy