Actual Growth Rate Research Articles

Developing Countries’ Deadlock: What Does the Thirlwall's Law Offer Us?

This study aims to discuss potential alternatives for economic development in developing countries, with contributions from the theoretical background of Thirlwall's law. Developing countries' foreign trade constraints will be highlighted, followed by a comparison of Türkiye's past growth performance with results obtained from Thirlwall’s Law equations using balance of payments data. Türkiye's actual growth rates closely resemble the growth forecast of Thirlwall’s model, which indicates that post-Keynesian approaches are worth considering to alter the current situation. While providing a perfect solution that could reverse everything for developing countries may be a distant goal, this study aspires to foster a mindset capable of changing the course of events.

Evaluating the growth rates and financial stability of Al-Thiqa and Al-Mutahida Insurance companies

The research aimed to assess the actual and sustainable growth rates of Al-Thiqa and Al-Mutahida Insurance Companies, while also conducting a comparative analysis of their financial stability to assess their ability to grow without the need for external financing. The study period spans from 2012 to 2016. To accomplish the set objectives, a descriptive-analytical approach was utilized, employing the Ros model for assessing actual and sustainable growth, and the Z-Score model for evaluating financial stability. The outcomes of the study indicated that both companies fell short of the necessary actual growth rate, with Al-Thiqa Insurance Company meeting the sustainable growth rate requirement, unlike Al-Mutahida Insurance Company. Furthermore, disparities in actual and sustainable growth rates between the two companies were identified. In terms of financial stability, it was observed that there was a decline for Al-Thiqa Insurance Company and a reduction to zero for Al-Mutahida Insurance Company. The examination furthermore assessed the financial standing of both companies are focused on increasing their market presence and ensuring their financial stability., thereby aiding in the development of a strategy to enhance the efficiency enhancing Libyan insurance entities to contribute positively to the advancement of the local economy. Keywords: Sustainable growth- actual growth- financial stability- Financial fragility.

Daily load curve prediction for Jordan based on statistical techniques

Abstract The article proposes a mathematical prediction model for daily load curves (DLCs) in Jordan from 2023–2050. The historical hourly peak loads based on the growth rate statistical method in 1994–2020 and the annual forecasted peak loads during the morning and evening periods taken from the long-term load forecast (LTLF) study of National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) during 2022–2050 are employed in the prediction model. The results show that the actual hourly growth rates, the annual forecasted growth rates, and the hourly peak loads in the reference year 2022 are the main input variables used in the prediction formula. The LTLF study conducted by NEPCO employs various sophisticated methods depending on the end-user sectorial electricity consumption that imply an econometric approach, market survey, and Gomprtz extrapolation techniques. The peak load in Jordan relies upon several climatic and nonclimatic variables, implying the ambient temperature, gross domestic product, income, demographic, urbanization, electricity tariff, average oil prices, and other factors related to technology and new aspects of energy saving and space heating/cooling systems, the DLC in Jordan is variable and changing from year to year. The proposed model considers a variation in the future DLC and suggests three different scenarios of DLC’s prediction based on the time occurrence of the peak load: the first is the daytime peak occurrence scenario, the second is the evening peak occurrence scenario, and finally is the daytime and evening peaks may be close to each other.

Connectedness and wellbeing: Community and nature-based connection in the context of Utah’s rapid growth

ABSTRACT Research suggests that feeling connected to the natural world and feeling socially connected to your community positively influence wellbeing. However, significant demographic shifts within communities may reduce the amount of social and nature-based connectedness enjoyed by residents. As one of the fastest growing states, data from within Utah provides important insights related to how population growth impacts connectedness and wellbeing. The goal of this research was to investigate how community connection and connection with nature are associated with personal wellbeing and how population growth, both in terms of actual growth rates and subjective assessments of population growth, influence connectedness and wellbeing. Results indicate that people within the Utah study communities are aware of and sensitive to changes within and beyond their communities, and these perceptions appear to be more impactful for connectedness and wellbeing than the actual growth rates their cities are experiencing.

International trade and economic growth in Croatia

This article argues that Croatia’s growth over the past two decades is deeply related to the dynamics of international trade. Under the premise that what is bought and sold in global markets reflects the economy’s fundamentals, we show that the rate of growth compatible with equilibrium in the balance-of-payments, i.e. the dynamic Harrod trade multiplier, is a good predictor of the country’s actual long-run growth rate. For this purpose, we apply a state–space model and the Kalman smoother to obtain time-varying parameter estimates of the exports and imports functions. We use these estimates to investigate the determinants of international non-price competitiveness. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Weighted Average Least Squares (WALS) techniques are combined to tackle model selection uncertainty. It is shown that R&D investments and human capital accumulation are the most important explanatory variables. The success of the European Union’s (EU) integration process depends on the capacity of its new members to achieve a balanced-growth path. Being the last country to join the union, the experience of this single country is particularly relevant to understand possible development alternatives for the region. We conclude by highlighting the policy relevance of our findings to the evaluation of Croatia’s catching-up performance as part of the EU.

Middle-aged forests in the Eastern U.S. have significant climate mitigation potential

Middle-aged forests in the Eastern U.S. are broadly defined to consist of forests between the regeneration phase following harvest or disturbance, and an older phase with forests composed of large trees, complex structure, and increasing natural mortality. Study objectives were to develop new carbon accumulation curves based on recent inventory data that represent the actual growth rates of forests as they advance beyond middle age; quantify the projected carbon sink from reducing or increasing harvest of middle-aged forests; and disseminate credible estimates of future carbon stocks in ecosystems and harvested wood products to support policies designed to enhance the role of forests in removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing it securely. We found that middle-aged Eastern U.S. forests could continue to accumulate carbon for many decades or several centuries in the absence of harvesting, with relatively low risk of natural disturbances. Compared with a recent study that estimated a potential increase in biomass of only 22%, and some analyses that anticipate significant increases in risks from natural disturbances, our results indicate a potential increase of about 100% over current biomass stocks by 2100. Temperate Continental forests have greater potential to increase carbon stock over longer time periods than Subtropical Humid forests. Results from scenario analyses showed that in the near term of 20–40 years, reducing harvest will yield the greatest reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions compared with business as usual. Under an extreme “no-harvest” scenario, C sequestration could increase by about 20 TgC yr−1 in Temperate Continental forests by 2050, and by about 30 TgC yr−1 in Subtropical Humid forests over the same time period. In contrast, a scenario of tripling harvest would increase C emissions by 30 and 60 TgC yr−1 in the Temperate Continental and Subtropical Humid ecozones by 2050, respectively. In the longer term of 80 or so years, all scenarios and “business as usual” converge toward similar impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, nearing neutrality in the Subtropical Humid ecozone but separated by about 30 TgC yr−1 in the Temperate Continental ecozone. Our estimated annual emission reduction from stopping harvest over the 73 million ha of middle-aged forests amounts to 117 Mg CO2 per year in 2050, equivalent to about 7% of the emissions from using fossil energy in the two ecozones. Increasing harvest would have the opposite effect of increasing emissions by a similar magnitude in 2050. How middle-aged forests in the Eastern U.S. are managed can clearly affect their contribution to achieving net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 and beyond.

Performance study of automatic detection of pulmonary nodules based on convolutional neural network

In the medical field, the continuous monitoring of the probability of lung cancer incidence can be known that the actual growth rate is becoming faster and faster, and the complications become more and more serious. According to the research and analysis of experts in various fields, it is found that haze is one of the main factors leading to the occurrence of lung cancer in human body, especially in the urban environment. How to use the theory of artificial intelligence technology to design the automatic detection system of lung nodules is the core issue discussed in the field of medical science and technology at present. On the basis of understanding the status quo of convolutional neural network and lung cancer diagnosis and treatment, this study uses CAD system to complete the detection work from four steps, and combines practical cases to judge the detection performance of this technology, in order to lay a foundation for the development of technical innovation in the medical field.

Research on the Impact of COVID-19 on All Walks of Life and Countermeasures

Since the sudden outbreak in 2019, COVID-19 has had a great impact on the whole social economy. By analyzing the specific reasons for the blow or promotion of all industries, This paper discuss the specific countermeasures to promote the future development of the industry. Research shows that the impact of the COVID-19 on tourism and catering industry is rapid and destructive. But it has a significant role in promoting the Internet industry. Today, when the epidemic situation is gradually stabilized and normalized, enterprise managers can no longer imagine returning to the normal operation mode, and should actively reform to adapt to the stable development of the overall environment. For some industries that are currently enjoying the dividends brought by the epidemic, they should be soberly aware of the strength of their products, analyze the actual growth rate brought by the epidemic and make plans for long-term development.

Оценка отклика на изменение климата в опытах с происхождениями Picea abies (L.) Karst. × P. obovata (Ledeb.) на севере Русской равнины

The article studies the intraspecific response of European spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst. × P. obovata (Ledeb.)) to climatic changes on the basis of data on the growth of 15 provenances in 31-year-old provenance plot of the North Russian Plain (Arkhangelsk and Vologda regions) simulating warming and cooling. We compared the actual height and diameter at the test site and the calculated height at the places of growth of the source stands, determined by recalculating the actual progeny growth data through the latitudinal growth coefficients proposed by I.V. Volosevich for the North Russian Plain. The difference between the calculated and actual growth rates of the corresponding provenance at the test site represented the response of the provenance to the change in growing conditions. The response was crosschecked with differences in climatic characteristics (sum of effective temperatures above 10 °C) and geographic coordinates of the places of origin and growth of spruce. Spruce has approximately the same response rate if offspring move by an equal amount of gradient (north latitude) to the south or to the north and if the climatic factor (sum of temperatures above 10 °C) changes towards warming or cooling. While the sum of temperatures changes above 10 °C for every 100 °C, the difference in growth in height and diameter will be 0.48 m and 0.42 cm, respectively; for each degree of change in northern latitude, on average, 0.50 m and 0.44 cm in height and diameter, respectively. However, for species from the northern taiga subzone, mainly represented by Siberian spruce (P. obovata) the response of the species will be half as much than for the origin of hybrid spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst. × P. obovata (Ledeb.)) from the middle taiga subzone. The calculated values of response by height and diameter for European spruce should be considered when regulating seed transfer and used in forecasts for the adaptation of forestry measures to the expected climatic changes.

The effect of economic growth pressure on green technology innovation: Do environmental regulation, government support, and financial development matter?

Green technology improvement is critical in promoting green development and mitigating negative externalities. Exploring the effect of economic growth pressure (EGP) on green technology innovation (GTI) is important for coordinated economic growth and green transformation. Using the data from 285 cities in China during 2006–2018, this study investigates the influence of EGP on GTI by taking the difference between economic growth target and previous year's actual growth rate to represent the EGP. The results indicate that EGP negatively affects GTI. When there is a 1% increase in EGP, green patent applications will fall by 3.2%. Furthermore, the heterogeneity analysis indicates that the negative effect of EGP is especially significant in western China compared with eastern and central regions. In addition, we find various nonlinear moderating effects between EGP and GTI by using panel threshold model. Specifically, EGP and GTI show an inverted U-shaped relationship with EGP increasing. Meanwhile, only when environmental regulation, government support, and financial development cross the thresholds will EGP have a significant role in promoting GTI. This study provides helpful implications for decision-makers to adopt a more reasonable combination of policy tools to achieve economic growth targets and low-carbon transformation.

디지털농업 결정요인이 우리나라 농식품수출에 미치는 영향분석

As the instability of the global economy continues after Covid-19, international trade is finding a new turning point. In particular, through the development of information and communication technology, all industries are attempting digital transformation and establishing a new economic system. Recently, the agricultural sector is facing the challenge of strengthening export competitiveness beyond food security in each country. Amid these changes, the emergence of digital agriculture has emerged as an alternative to creating new opportunities in the global market through agriculture.
 This study analyzed the impact of determinants for domestic digital agriculture transition on agricultural exports and presented implications. The analysis model was set as the export supply function, and the actual economic growth rate, including the relative price of export products, and the public R&D intensity, including public R&D expenses, and the number of professional researchers were selected as determinants for the digital transformation of the agricultural sector. Looking at the analysis results, the export relative price index generally used in the export supply function was analyzed to have a positive (+) effect, but the real economic growth rate, a substitute variable for domestic demand pressure, did not show statistically significant results. In addition, among the determinants of digital agriculture, R&D costs and intensity were analyzed to have a positive effect on agricultural exports, but the number of professionals did not produce statistically significant results. Summarizing the analysis results, it is understood that the expansion of R&D and investment for digital agriculture has a direct impact on agricultural exports, and the need for active investment and development in creating a digital agricultural foundation in the domestic agricultural sector in the future.

Pro-poor Growth: Concepts and Measurement with Country Case Studies (Distinguished Lecture)

This paper looks into the interrelation between economic growth, inequality, and poverty. Using the notion of pro-poor growth, we examine the extent to which the poor benefit from economic growth. First, various approaches to defining and measuring propoor growth are scrutinised using a variety of criteria. It is argued that the satisfaction of a monotonicity axiom is a key criterion for measuring pro-poor growth. The monotonicity axiom sets out a condition that the proportional reduction in poverty is a monotonically increasing function of the pro-poor growth measure. The paper proposes a pro-poor growth measure that satisfies the monotonicity criterion. This measure is called a ‘poverty equivalent growth rate’, which takes into account both the magnitude of growth and how the benefits of growth are distributed to the poor and the non-poor. As the new measure satisfies the criterion of monotonicity, it is indicative that to achieve rapid poverty reduction, the poverty equivalent growth rate—rather than the actual growth rate—ought to be maximised. The methodology developed in the paper is then applied to three Asian countries, namely, the Republic of Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam.

The Effect of Equity Financing Structure and Asset Utilization Efficiency on Financial Fragility

The current study aimed to test the effect of the equity financing structure and asset utilization efficiency on the financial fragility of a sample of 23 industrial companies listed on the Amman Stock Exchange for the period of 2016–2021 using the random sampling method. The descriptive-analytical method was deployed in this study. Besides, E-views software was used to test the study hypotheses. The study concluded that a negative and statistically significant effect of equity financing structure (common stock financing ratio and retained earnings financing ratio) on financial fragility. Furthermore, a negative and statistically significant effect of asset utilization efficiency, as measured by the (actual growth rate), on financial fragility. Therefore, the study recommends that industrial companies consider the Minsky index to determine the degree of financial fragility and avoid it. In addition, relying on their equity financing while making the appropriate financial decisions for optimal diversification between financing sources.

Financial Policy and Companies’ Sustainable Growth

Abstract This paper investigates the intercompany-specific characteristics as a determinant of the sustainable growth rate. We researched a sample of companies listed on the Macedonian stock exchanges. We found that the average actual growth rate for the 2010-2019 period is only 0.38%, while the sustainable growth rate was 1.42%. This is because of the poor operating performance of the companies, moderate leverage, and average retention ratio of 82.5% for the whole sample. The actual growth rate in specific years is drastically higher than the sustainable growth rate, while in certain years it is negative. The sustainable growth rate is positively affected by the profit margin, retention ratio, asset turnover, financial leverage, and ROE, and it is negatively affected by the operating cash flow, company size, growth opportunities, and non-debt tax shield.

Is Expected Inflation the Best Long-term Sustainable Growth Rate?

When using the income approach to value a business, selecting a sustainable long-term growth rate is a necessary input into the valuation model, one that can have a material effect on the value of the business. The business valuation literature has provided little guidance for estimating and understanding sustainable long-term growth rates. Apart from relying on macroeconomic indicators and historical industry averages, appraisers have few options for selecting sustainable long-term growth rates and are often relegated to making arbitrary assumptions. The objective of this article is to examine the accuracy of using historical industry average growth rates, historical average gross domestic product growth rates, and expected inflation as sustainable long-term growth rates. The accuracy of the forecasts was examined vis-à-vis actual growth rates for twenty-one selected industries from 1991 to 2021 for the purpose of selecting the most accurate forecasting method. The forecasts premised on expected inflation proved to be the most accurate. In light of the results, the notion that expected inflation may be the best estimate of sustainable long-term growth was explored.

Quantitative analysis of the structural health of railway turnouts using the acoustic emission technique

Rail defects such as fatigue cracks have been one of the leading root causes of a number of derailments in the past. Cracks that initiate and propagate below the surface are difficult to detect using traditional non-destructive testing (NDT) methods. Acoustic emission (AE) is a more effective method for detecting and monitoring crack growth in rails online. This study investigates the applicability of AE for quantifying damage propagation in austenitic cast manganese steel used in manufacturing railway turnouts. The relationship between AE and crack growth rate in austenitic cast manganese steel samples that were fatigue tested in a three-point bending configuration was investigated by evaluating the AE activity with respect to direct current potential drop (DCPD) measurements and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) fractographic analysis of the tested samples. From the results obtained, it was not possible to observe a clear relationship between AE activity and the actual crack growth rate. Based on the SEM fractographic analysis, this is likely due to the plasticity occurring at the tip of the fatigue crack in the tested samples. This is plausible since the cast manganese steel samples had been cut off from a plate that had not been previously work hardened. The effect of carbides present in the microstructure is an additional contributing factor. Further tests should be carried out on cast manganese steel samples that have been work hardened prior to fatigue testing.

Evaluation and analysis of the projected population of China

The population has a significant influence on economic growth, energy consumption, and climate change. Many scholars and organizations have published projections for China's future population due to its substantial population amounts. However, these projections have not been evaluated or analyzed, which may lead confusion to extensional studies based on these datasets. This manuscript compares several China's projection datasets at multiscale and analyzes the impacting factors affecting projection accuracy. The results indicate that the slow of actual population growth rates from 2017 is earlier than most datasets projected. Therefore, the turning point of population decline probably comes rapidly before these datasets expected during 2024 and 2034. Furthermore, the projections do not reveal the population decline from 2010 in the Northeast provinces such as Jilin and Heilongjiang, and underrate the population increase in the southern provinces such as Guangdong and Chongqing. According to the results of regression models, the rate of population changes and the number of migrations people play a significant role in projection accuracy. These findings provide meaningful guidance for scholars to understand the uncertainty of those projection datasets. Moreover, for researchers performing population projections, our discoveries provide insights to increase the projection accuracy.

AN APPLICATION OF THIRLWALL'S MODEL TO BOTSWANA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH

This paper estimates economic growth of Botswana using Thirlwall's and the Extended Thirlwall's models for the period of 1980-2016. Parameters from the Thirlwall's model shows the calculated growth rate of 5.63 percent while the actual growth rate was 6.52%. These growth rates are very close to each other. This indicates that price and income elasticities of exports and imports influence Botswana's economic growth. Our empirical findings support those of Matsheka (1998). These empirical findings suggest that the Thirlwall's law holds in Botswana. i.e., Botswana's economic growth rate is balance of payments constrained. The Extended Thirlwall's model showed lower growth rate of 4.26% which is less than the actual growth rate. This suggested that the productivity factor has not played a significant role in the economic growth of Botswana. This might not be surprising. Botswana's economic growth is driven by the growth of diamonds exports where productivity might not be easily measured like in the manufacturing and services industries. These findings are in contrast to those of Romero and McCombie (2016) when investigating the impact of relative productivity growth on trade performance on developed countries. It is recommended that Botswana should improve her exports diversification strategies to increase economic growth without deteriorating her balance of payments

Digital Transformation and Firm Performance in the Context of Sustainability: Mediating Effects Based on Behavioral Integration.

In order to promote digital industrialization and industrial digitalization, promote the deep integration of digital technology and real economy, and enable the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and performance improvement, the method of digital transformation and enterprise performance under the sustainable background based on the mediation effect of behavior integration is proposed. This article adopts the case study method, takes Group A as the research object, and excavates the internal and external motivation and transformation path of Group A's digital transformation by combining the theories of organizational change, process reengineering and enterprise life cycle. Combined with the relevant indicators of four dimensions of balanced scorecard, this article deeply studies the impact of digital transformation on the performance of Group A and its internal mechanism. The experimental results show that compared with Group A before digital transformation, the growth rate of gross margin in 2013 was significantly accelerated, and it has always been in a state of stable growth. However, it fell in 2017, when the year-on-year growth rate of the company's total operating revenue and costs was more than 50%, but the actual growth rate of operating expenses was about 5% higher than that of operating revenue. The comprehensive score of Group A's financial performance in 2012 was very low, which did not achieve the desired effect either in terms of growth ability or business strength. In such a situation, Company A began to implement digital transformation, the overall IT system was to carry out a comprehensive reconstruction in the inventory management mode to implement a new model of “sales to production”. By 2013, the financial performance composite score had increased significantly. The comprehensive score of Group A's financial performance in 2012 was very low, which did not achieve the desired effect either in terms of growth ability or business strength. Under such circumstances, Company A began to implement digital transformation, and the overall IT system was comprehensively reconstructed. In the inventory management mode, the new mode of “sales to production” was implemented. By 2013, the financial performance composite score had increased significantly. Conclusion. Digital transformation drives the performance improvement of Group A. From the financial perspective, digital transformation has improved the profitability and operation capacity of Group A.

Medial gastrocnemius growth in children who are typically developing: Can changes in muscle volume and length be accurately predicted from age?

Muscle size is an important determinant of muscular fitness and health, and so it is important to have accurate estimates of actual muscle growth in children. This study compared actual versus age-predicted growth rates of the medial gastrocnemius (MG) muscle in young children over a 12-month period. Three-dimensional ultrasound was used to measure MG length and volume in 50 children (mean±standard deviation [SD] age=70.3±29.9months) to establish age-predicted muscle growth rates using a least-squares linear regression. Twenty children (mean±SD age=78.5±27.2months) were followed up at 6 and 12months to establish actual muscle growth of MG volume and length. These data were then compared to their age-predicted muscle growth from the linear regression equation using paired t-tests and Bland-Altman limits of agreement method. Age-predicted MG growth significantly underestimated actual muscle growth for both volume and length at each timepoint. On average, actual muscle volume and length were 11.5% and 21.5% greater than the age-predicted volume and length respectively. Caution is warranted when predicting future muscle size in young children based solely on age.