Actual Growth Rate Research Articles

Economic growth and the balance-of-payments constraint: The case of the spanish regions, 1988–2009

The balance-of-payments can act as a constraint on the rate of output growth, on putting a limit to the growth in the level of demand to which supply can adapt. Regional economies might be particularly sensitive to this effect, since they are presumably more integrated among them. In this paper, we examine this issue for the case of the 17 Spanish regions over the period 1988–2009, and calculate their balance-of-payments-constrained growth rates. By comparing these balance-of-payments-constrained growth rates with the actual growth rates, we would be able to assess whether the balance-of-payments has worked as a constraint on growth.

Criterios de gestión forestal para 12 especies de los Bosques Nativos Tropicales de Bolivia a través de métodos dendrocronológicos

Lopez, L., Villalba, R. 2015. Forest management criteria for 12 species of Tropical Native Forests of Bolivia based on dendrochronological methods. Ecosistemas 24(2): 24-29. Doi.: 10.7818/ECOS.2015.24-2.04. In this study, we present information on growth rates, Biological Cutting Cycles (BCC), Optimum Cutting Diameters (OCD) and Optimum Cutting Periods (OCP) for 12 forest species from the Cerrado Boliviano. The results of this study were compared with those from the management guidelines established by the Bolivia's Forestry Law and from the GOL (Growth Oriented Logging) practices. Most species require more than 100 years to reach the BCC. There are species like Anadenanthera colubrina that achieves the OCD at 34 cm diameter whereas others such as Hymenaea courbaril reaches the OCD at 72 cm in diameter. The fast-growing species reach OCP at ages above 62 years, whereas slow-growing species need over 95 years. Most species require more years to reach a certain diameter than those established by the Bolivian Forestry Law. These results emphasize the need to adapt the Bolivia forest management guidelines to practices based on the actual growth rates in tropical species in the Cerrado Boliviano.

Two Sub-obstructive Left Atrium Myxomasinduce Cardiac Failure after Breast Cancer Treatment

Atrial myxoma is a rare condition. Cardiac failure after left breast cancer treatment is not usually attributed to such pathology. We describe the case of a 69 year-old female who presented two sub-obstructive left atrium myxomas one year after the end of left breast cancer treatment. Acute cardiac failure, without history of prior cardiovascular disease, could have resolved from the combination of various factors involving myxomas and complications of radiotherapy and chemotherapy. The absence of atrial images on the computerised tomography and ultrasonography performed before cancer treatment question the accuracy of diagnosis imaging as well as the actual rate of growth of cardiac myxoma.

Effect of daytime CO2 supplement on productivity and biochemical composition of Scenedesmus armatus under outdoor cultivation

ABSTRACTThe cultivation of Scenedesmus armatus was carried out under outdoor Thailand climate conditions. The highest actual growth rate occurred at around 9:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m., with a wide pH range of 6.4 to 11. The supply of CO2 had slight influence on growth characteristics but did exert some observable effects on nutritional accumulations. Adding CO2 from 2 to 15% by volume in the aeration (0.2 vvm) caused an increase in lipid and protein from 19.8 to 25.6 and 37.8 to 48.2% w/w, respectively, whereas carbohydrate decreased from 42.5 to 26.2% w/w. Scenedesmus armatus cultivated with 2% CO2-enriched air provided the highest the average of the average biomass productivity of 91.25 mg L−1 d−1, which corresponded to a CO2 fixation of 165 mg CO2 L−1 d−1 with the average lipid, protein, and carbohydrate productivities of 22.24, 38.34, and 30.67 mg L−1 d−1.

Frankincense yield is related to tree size and resin-canal characteristics

Boswellia papyrifera Hochst. is the most important global source of frankincense. Tree numbers are rapidly decreasing in many populations of B. papyrifera in Ethiopia, where most of the internationally traded frankincense comes from. Improper tapping is among the frequently mentioned reasons for this decrease within populations. We still lack sustainable techniques for frankincense tapping, and these techniques are not yet tuned to individual trees since we are unaware how tree characteristics influence frankincense yield. This study investigates the relationships between different tree characteristics and their relation to frankincense yield. We selected 53 trees and measured frankincense yield and their DBH, tree age, number of leaf apices, radial growth, bark thickness, total resin-canal area, and total number of resin canals in a cross-section. Regression and path analysis were used to unravel cause-effect relationships between tree characteristics and frankincense yield. Frankincense yield was independent of the actual radial growth rate, but increased with increasing total resin-canal area in the bark, stem diameter, tree age, and the number of leaf apices. We show that frankincense yield by trees is not only a simple function of tree size. Remarkably, trees that grew slower over their whole life history produced more frankincense, suggesting an intra-specific trade-off in growth rate and frankincense production. Overall, this study thus shows that frankincense production is the result of complex plant trait networks and long term tree life properties. The results contribute to management regimes that minimize the damage to trees, while maximizing benefits in terms of frankincense yield and can also be used for selection and propagation of trees which are well suited for frankincense production.

Fire Emissions and Carbon Uptake in Severely Burned Lenga Beech (Nothofagus pumilio) Forests of Patagonia, Argentina

AbstractForest wildfires are recognized as sources of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHG) that, altering the dynamics between terrestrial and atmospheric carbon (C) exchange, influence global climate. In central Andean Patagonia, Argentina, severe wildfires affect temperate lenga beech (Nothofagus pumilio Poepp. & Endl. Krasser) forests, thereby increasing atmospheric CO2 emissions and changing natural succession paths. In this study, we determined fire emissions and C uptake in three lenga beech forests stands burned in 1976 (Lago Guacho site), 1983 (La Torta site), and 2008 (La Colisión site). Forest structure and aboveground biomass and litter compartments in burned and adjacent unburned stands were quantified for each fire. Carbon stocks and GHG (CO2, CO, CH4, NO2, NOx and Ce) released by the fires, CO2 removals, and mean annual C uptake were determined by following the International Panel of Climate Change guidelines. Total (aboveground plus root) C stock before fires was 301.8 Mg C ha−1 for La Colisión, 258.13 Mg C ha−1 for La Torta, and 270.7 Mg C ha−1 for Lago Guacho, while C losses due to the fires were 104.6 Mg C ha−1, 90.7 Mg C ha−1, and 94.7 Mg C ha−1 for the three sites, respectively. Differences in pre-fire forest structures and biomass explained the values observed in CO2 and other GHG emissions after the fires. Currently, the C balance is negative for the three sites. Without any active restoration and using actual growth rates for each site, the estimated C recovery time is 105.5 yr for La Colisión, 94.2 yr for La Torta, and 150.2 yr for Lago Guacho. By using variable rates of C uptake (which decrease as early succession proceeds), this recovery time will take 182 yr for La Colisión, 154 yr for La Torta, and 162 yr for Lago Guacho. Post-fire environmental and site conditions appeared to have a greater influence in forest recovery than primary fire effects. Active restoration activities may be necessary to increase C recovery rates and help to re-establish former lenga beech forest landscapes.

GDP Management to Meet or Beat Growth Targets

We apply the discontinuity methodology in the earnings management literature to the political economy setting of GDP reporting and examine whether Chinese local governments manage GDP numbers. Using actual and target GDP growth data at the prefecture and province levels, we find strong evidence of discontinuities around zero in the distribution of actual minus target GDP growth rates. The frequencies of just meeting/beating GDP growth targets are about ten (four) times the frequencies of just missing targets at the prefecture (province) level. In addition, the distribution discontinuity exhibits cross-sectional variations in a predictable way. The results are stronger for governors without political connections to the central government and governors with longer tenure. The results are also stronger for provinces with large changes in public expenditure and in local bank loans. Collectively, the empirical evidence supports the notion that local governments manage GDP numbers to meet/beat growth targets.

The People's Republic of China's Potential Growth Rate: The Long-Run Constraints

We estimate the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) potential growth rate in 2012 at 8.7% and at 9.2% for the average of 2008-2012, about the same as the average actual growth rate for this period. This rate is the natural growth rate, that is, the rate consistent with a constant unemployment rate and stable inflation. The PRC’s natural growth rate displays a downward trend since 2006, when it peaked at 11.1%. Probably the Great Recession has been an important factor, although we argue that there are other factors. We show that the PRC’s potential growth rate is not demand constrained, in particular by the balance of payments. The PRC’s potential growth rate is determined by the supply side of the economy, in particular by: (i) changes in the structure of the economy, in particular in the share of industrial employment; (ii) the working-age population; (iii) the share of net exports in gross domestic product (GDP); (iv) export growth; (v) the share of foreign direct investment (FDI) in GDP; and (vi) human capital accumulation.

A new method studying the kinetics of l-lactic acid production by pellets Rhizopus oryzae in semi-continuous fermentation

l-Lactic acid production by Rhizopus oryzae in a semi-continuous fermentation system has been recognized as a promising technology. We studied l-lactic acid production in ten batches of semi-continuous fermentation by R. oryzae using a 7-L stirred fermentor and found that the kinetics of the system was in good agreement with the logistic and Luedeking–Piret model equations. In particular, in order to mathematically calculate the actual specific growth rate in each repeated batch, we assumed that the new biomass was “zero” at the beginning of each repeated batch, and the same method was used to calculate the parameters of the product formation kinetic. The biomass remaining from the previous batches played an important role in the l-lactic acid production in each repeated batch. During the repeated fermentation, the values of δ (the efficiency of the reused biomass maintained in the former batch for producing L-lactic acid (%)) all exceeded 90 %, but the values of Q Pm (maximum l-lactic acid production rate) decreased gradually, possibly due to the breaking-down and autolysis of the biomass concomitant with the growth of new fungi, which led to the reduction in the maximum specific growth rate (μ m).

The Influence of Mechanism of Strategic Management on the Formation of the Intimate Environment of the Enterprises (Evidenced from Petrochemical Cluster in the Republic of Tatarstan)

In the context of international economics globalization and market relations participation of an enterprise in a cluster appears to be one of the main components in forming a favorable investment climate in a region. Within the frames of the cluster a pattern of corporate management formation entails less transaction expenses what makes possible to improve index of effectiveness for of a business organization participating thereof. At drawing upstream integration within the confines of petrochemical cluster in the Republic of Tatarstan the author carried out the analysis of financing and operating activities for such enterprises as OJSC «Nizhnekamskneftekhim», OJSC «Kazanorgsythez» incorporated by investment company OJSC «TAIF ». The membership in the cluster made possible for the above enterprises to maximize potential for growth reflecting the main performance ratios: net profit margin, asset turnover, financial leverage multiplier, sustainable growth rate, return of equity, actual growth rate of sales volume and strategic spread.

Energy transition and path creation for natural gas in the Brazilian electricity mix

Abstract Emerging economies will account for more than 90% of net energy demand growth to 2035. Although there is international consent about the need for reducing green-house gas (GHG) emissions, reduction targets have been left to governments' responsibility. Such opening lead to different energy policies and approaches among countries, specially comparing developing economies to developed ones. Technology development and new reserves found have set natural gas as the lead resource for transitioning energy mixes to lower carbon levels. However, hydropower has been the main source for the Brazilian electricity grid, and increasing dispatch of natural gas in fact increases GHG, which has been the core of current Brazilian energy policies. We estimated future Brazilian market shares of hydro, thermal, wind and nuclear power, through historical data analysis of power dispatch and installed capacity. The findings propose that current Brazilian administration is creating a new technological path, which will lead far from the desired GHG targets. If actual growth rate of thermal power continues, by the year 2022 thermal plants will be major suppliers of the Brazilian electricity grid, leaving hydro with the second largest market share. Furthermore, we propose several approaches for increasing adoption of renewable distributed generation and the development of other market niches for natural gas in Brazil, as alternative paths.

Social and economic development of Russia: an analysis and a forecast

The article contemplates the main trends of the socio-economic development of Russia, which have prevailed in recent years. The factors which cause the slowing the country’s economic dynamics are identified and described. The tasks for the long-term development of Russia are formulated. The issues concerning the actual and desired rate of economic growth are considered. Estimates of the resources required to implement the tasks above are revealed. Measures to increase the rate and quality of economic growth in Russia are proposed.

The importance of actual tumor growth rate on disease free survival and overall survival in laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma

Background and purposeEvaluation of the variation in tumor growth rate and the influence of tumor growth rate on disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC). Material and methodsWe delineated tumor volume on a diagnostic and planning CT scan in 131 patients with laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma and calculated the tumor growth rate. Primary endpoint was DFS. Follow up data were collected retrospectively. ResultsA large variation in tumor growth rate was seen. When dichotomized with a cut-off point of −0.3ln(cc/day), we found a significant association between high growth rate and worse DFS (p=0.008) and OS (p=0.013). After stepwise adjustment for potential confounders (age, differentiation and tumor volume) this significant association persisted. However, after adjustment of N-stage association disappeared. Exploratory analyses suggested a strong association between N-stage and tumor growth rate. ConclusionsIn laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma, there is a large variation in tumor growth rate. This tumor growth rate seems to be an important factor in disease free survival and OS. This tumor growth rate is independent of age, differentiation and tumor volume associated with DFS, but N-stage seems to be a more important risk factor.

Energy requirement of growing pigs under commercial housing conditions

Scientifically derived recommendations for the energy supply to growing pigs are generally based on estimates of the metabolisable energy (ME) requirements for maintenance (MEm) and protein (MEp) and fat (MEf) retention. It is supposed that animals are kept within the zone of thermoneutrality and that their physical activity is not elevated. These assumptions might not always be true for practical housing conditions, and it is difficult to quantify the additional energy needed for thermoregulation and physical activity. Hence, at a given ME intake, differences can occur between the actual growth rates and those predicted from the recommendations. To quantify such differences, three trials were carried out under commercial farming conditions with pigs growing from 25 to 120 kg body weight (BW). In each trial, 624 castrated male and female pigs were allocated to four feeding groups distributed over 24 double pens. The rations were provided according to the animals’ feed intake capacity and BW was recorded every three weeks. Protein, fat and energy retention (RE) was derived from carcass composition and BW gain. The difference between ME intake and MEm plus ME required for growth (MEg = RE/kpf) was calculated and seen as the ME required for purposes other than maintenance and growth (MEx). MEx accounted for 2.0%, 17.0% and 21.4% of the animals’ ME intake in Trials 1, 2 and 3, respectively, and was higher in female than in castrated male pigs when related to metabolic BW. It was concluded that total ME requirements of pigs kept under commercial housing conditions can be considerably higher than ME requirements predicted from feeding standards since they usually ignore MEx. MEx can be used as an indicator for the quality of housing systems. Further studies are needed to identify the key factors responsible for MEx to allow for more precise recommendations for the energy supply to commercially raised pigs.

Productive efficiency of the urban informal manufacturing sector in Assam

The paper analyses the productivity growth pattern in the urban informal manufacturing sector of Assam in India. The productivity of the urban informal manufacturing sector of the state is calculated and compared to the national average by using both partial and total factor productivity measures. Total factor productivity growth is taken as the difference between the growth rate in value added and a weighted sum of capital, and labour growth rates, the weights being the share of labour and capital in value added respectively. The index of efficiency of labour is computed for the state and compared to the national levels and is calculated as the difference between the actual growth rate and the desired growth rate of labour productivity. The study finds that positive total factor productivity growth of this sector both at the state as well as at the national level which is an encouraging signal.

Fatigue crack propagation behavior in railway steels

Purpose – The present paper aims to characterize the fatigue crack propagation behavior of wheel and rail steels, in particular the AVE wheel steel and an UIC60 rail steel, including several R-values and near threshold behavior. To accomplish this objective, mode I fatigue crack growth tests were performed according to the ASTM E647 standard on C(T) specimens taken from a Spanish high-speed AVE train used wheel and a UIC60 rail, tested with 0.1, 0.4 and 0.7 load ratios. Design/methodology/approach – In the present study, the two different methodologies presented in the ASTM E647 standard were used to characterize the fatigue crack propagation behavior of the two studied materials. The K-decreasing test procedure was used to characterize fatigue crack propagation near the threshold, whereas the K-increasing with constant load range method was used in the Paris law regime. Findings – It was observed that for the wheel a small influence of R-ratio was found, with greater R implying higher fatigue crack growth rates. For the rail, the influence is small, and for large values of ΔK, it is slightly reversed. The near-threshold results obtained indicate lower threshold values for higher R-ratio, a fact that is possibly associated with crack closure phenomena. A scanning electron microscope (SEM) study of fatigue crack propagation surfaces identified a random behavior in the striation orientation for both materials and no correlation was found between striation spacing and actual fatigue crack growth rate. Originality/value – R-ratio and threshold behavior of fatigue crack propagation of a steel used in high-speed train wheels, as well as of UIC60 rail steel, were studied, with the objective of generating data to be used in maintenance and damage tolerance models.

Potential for production of ‘mini-mussels’ in Great Belt (Denmark) evaluated on basis of actual and modeled growth of young mussels Mytilus edulis

The present study is a first step towards evaluation of the potential for line-mussel production in the Great Belt region between the Kattegat and Baltic Sea, Denmark. We present experimental results for actual growth rates of juvenile/adult mussels Mytilus edulis in suspended net bags in terms of shell length and dry weight of soft parts during extended periods (27–80 days) in the productive season in the first 6 series of field experiments, including 4 sites in Great Belt and 2 sites in Limfjorden, Denmark. Data were correlated and interpreted in terms of specific growth rate (μ, % day−1) as a function of dry weight of soft parts (W, g) by a previously developed simple bioenergetic growth model μ = aW −0.34. Results were generally in good agreement with the model which assumes the prevailing average chlorophyll a concentration at field sites to essentially account for the nutrition. Our studies have shown that M. edulis can grow from settlement in spring to 30 mm in shell length in November. We therefore suggest line farming of 30 mm ‘mini-mussels’ during one growth season, recovering all equipment at the time of harvest and re-establishing it with a new population of settled mussel larvae at the beginning of the next season, thus protecting the equipment from the damaging weather of the Danish winter season. The growth behavior during the fall–winter season was recorded in an additional 7th series of mussel growth experiments on farm-ropes to show the disadvantage of this period.

Projecting Expenditure on Medicines in the UK NHS

Expenditure on medicines is a readily identifiable element of health service costs. It is the focus of much attention by payers, not least in the UK even though the cost of medicines represents less than 10% of total UK National Health Service (NHS) expenditure. Projecting future medicines spending enables the likely cost pressure to be allowed for in planning the scale and allocation of NHS resources. Simple extrapolations of past trends in expenditure fail to account for changes in the rate and mix of new medicines becoming available and in the scope for windfall savings when some medicines lose their patent protection. The objective of this study is to develop and test an improved method to project NHS pharmaceutical expenditure in the UK for the period 2012-2015. We have adopted a product-by-product, bottom-up approach, which means that our projections are built up from individual products to the total market. Our projections of the impact of generic and biosimilars entry on prices and quantities of medicines sold, and of the rate of uptake of newly launched medicines, have been obtained from regression analysis of UK data. To address uncertainty, we have created a baseline and two other illustrative scenarios. We have compared our projections with actual expenditure for 2012. Our projections estimate that, between 2011 and 2015, with no change in policy or price regulation, the UK total medicines bill would increase at an average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of between 3.1 and 4.1%. Total NHS spending on branded medicines and total NHS spending on generics are projected to increase at average CAGRs of 0.5-1.8 and 10.0-11.0%, respectively, over the same time period. For the total market, the actual growth rate for 2012 lay within our projected range. Our methodology provides a useful framework for projecting UK NHS medicines expenditure over the medium term and captures the impacts of existing medicines losing exclusivity and of new medicines being launched onto the market.

Non-conventional induction strategies for production of subunit swine erysipelas vaccine antigen in rE. coli fed-batch cultures

In spite of the large number of reports on fed-batch cultivation of E. coli, alternative cultivation/induction strategies remain to be more deeply exploited. Among these strategies, it could be mentioned the use of complex media with combination of different carbon sources, novel induction procedures and feed flow rate control matching the actual cell growth rate. Here, four different carbon source combinations (glucose, glycerol, glucose + glycerol and auto-induction) in batch media formulation were compared. A balanced combination of glucose and glycerol in a complex medium formulation led to: fast growth in the batch-phase; reduced plasmid instability by preventing early expression leakage; and protein volumetric productivity of 0.40 g.L-1.h-1. Alternative induction strategies were also investigated. A mixture of lactose and glycerol as supplementary medium fully induced a high biomass population, reaching a good balance between specific protein production (0.148 gprot.gDCW-1) and volumetric productivity (0.32 g.L-1.h-1). The auto-induction protocol showed excellent results on specific protein production (0.158 gprot.gDCW-1) in simple batch cultivations. An automated feed control based on the on-line estimated growth rate was implemented, which allowed cells to grow at higher rates than those generally used to avoid metabolic overflow, without leading to acetate accumulation. Some of the protocols described here may provide a useful alternative to standard cultivation and recombinant protein production processes, depending on the performance index that is expected to be optimized. The protocols using glycerol as carbon source and induction by lactose feeding, or glycerol plus glucose in batch medium and induction by lactose pulse led to rSpaA production in the range of 6 g.L-1, in short fed-batch processes (16 to 20 h) with low accumulation of undesired side metabolites.

A note on pro-poor social expenditures

This study extended the concept of ‘pro-poor growth’ in terms of social expenditures that measure whether social expenditures are pro-poor or not pro-poor. Using the idea of pro-poor growth, this study examines as to what extent the poor benefited from the growth of social expenditures i.e., human development, rural development, safety nets and community services. The monotonicity axiom sets out a condition that the proportional reduction in poverty is a monotonically increasing function of the pro-poor growth. This study satisfies the monotonicity criterion relative with social expenditures and proposes a ‘poverty equivalent social expenditure rate’, which takes into account both the magnitude of social expenditures growth and how the benefits of these expenditures are distributed to the poors and the non-poors. This methodology is applied to Pakistan’s unit record household surveys during the periods of 1964–2011 (21 household surveys) and examines the interrelationship between social expenditures, inequality, and poverty. It is argued that the satisfaction of a monotonicity axiom is a key criterion for measuring pro-poor growth. The results found that the social expenditures in Pakistan are not intrinsically pro poor. Although it was strongly pro poor in the 1980s and pro poor in the 1990s, growth in the 1970s and 2000s was anti poor, if the poverty related social expenditures still remains anti-poor in the subsequent years as reflected in the years 2008–2011, there is a likelihood that these expenditures may not trickle down to the poor but instead to the non-poor. It is indicative that to achieve rapid poverty reduction, the poverty equivalent growth rate ought to be maximized rather than the actual growth rate of social expenditures in Pakistan.