Active Adaptive Management Research Articles

Vegetation Dynamics in Rhode Island Salt Marshes During a Period of Accelerating Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Level Events

Sea level rise is a major stressor on many salt marshes, and its impacts include creek widening, ponding, vegetation dieback, and drowning. Marsh vegetation changes have been associated with sea level rise across southern New England, but most of these studies pre-date the current period of rapidly accelerating sea level rise coupled with episodic events of extreme increases in water levels. Here, we combine data from two salt marsh monitoring and assessment programs in Rhode Island that were designed to assess marsh responses to sea level rise and use these data to document temporal and spatial patterns in marsh vegetation during the current period of extreme water level increases. Vegetation monitoring at two Narragansett Bay salt marshes confirms the ongoing decline of the salt meadow species Spartina patens during this period as it becomes replaced by Spartina alterniflora. Bare ground resulting from vegetation dieback was significantly related to mean high water levels and led to the rapid conversion of mixed Spartina assemblages to S. alterniflora monocultures. A broader spatial assessment of RI marshes shows that S. alterniflora dominance increases at lower elevation marshes toward the mouth of Narraganset Bay. Our data provide additional evidence that S. patens continues to decline in southern New England marshes and show that losses can accelerate during periods of extreme high water levels. Unless adaptive management actions are taken, we predict that marshes throughout RI will continue to lose salt meadow habitat and eventually resemble lower elevation marshes that are already dominated by S. alterniflora monocultures.

Exploring a Resilience-Based Approach to Spatial Planning in Fathom Five National Marine Park, Lake Huron, Canada, Using Marxan with Zones

Conservation zoning is a planning process that has been used within protected areas to spatially establish and communicate conservation goals and reduce user conflicts. Here, we explored a resilience-based approach to zoning in Fathom Five National Marine Park, Lake Huron, Canada, using the decision support tool Marxan with Zones, a command line program that we interfaced with our Geographic Information System (GIS). Conservation features were identified and organized into general themes of ecosystem structure, ecosystem function, and social structure. Target values for these features were set to achieve representativeness, replication, and connectivity goals, while minimizing social, political, and economic costs. Although 100 different near-optimal solutions were generated, we paid particular attention to the “best” and “summed” solutions. Implementation recommendations also included considerations for active learning, adaptive management, and good governance. The tools and methods provide an example for managers of other protected areas interested in maintaining and building ecosystem resilience..

Introgression threatens the survival of the critically endangered freshwater crayfish Cherax tenuimanus (Decapoda: Parastacidae) in the wild.

Hybridization and genetic introgression following the introduction of exotic species can pose a significant threat to the survival of geographically restricted species. A remnant population of the critically endangered freshwater crayfish Cherax tenuimanus in the upper reaches of the Margaret River in southwestern Australia is under threat following the introduction and spread of its congener Cherax cainii. Here, we examine the extent of hybridization and introgression between the two species using twelve polymorphic microsatellite loci. Our study reveals there are three times more C. cainii than C. tenuimanus at our study site in the upper reaches of the Margaret River. There is also evidence of hybridization and introgression between C. tenuimanus and C. cainii at this site, with F1, F2 and backcrossed individuals identified. While interbreeding was confirmed in this study, our simulations suggest that the levels of introgression are much lower than would be expected under random mating, indicating partial reproductive barriers exist. Nevertheless, it is apparent that hybridization and introgression with C. cainii pose a serious threat to C. tenuimanus and their survival in the wild will require active adaptive management and continued genetic monitoring to evaluate management effectiveness.

Sudden and rapid decline of the abundant marsupial Bettongia penicillata in Australia

AbstractThe woylie Bettongia penicillata is categorized as Critically Endangered, having declined by c. 90% between 1999 and 2006. The decline continues and the cause is not fully understood. Within a decline diagnosis framework we characterized the nature of the decline and identified potential causes, with a focus on the species’ largest populations, located in south-west Western Australia. We described the spatio-temporal pattern of the decline, and several attributes that are common across sites. We categorized the potential causes of the decline as resources, predators, disease and direct human interference. Based on the available evidence the leading hypothesis is that disease may be making woylies more vulnerable to predation but this remains to be tested. No substantial recoveries have been sustained to date, and one of the three remaining indigenous populations now appears to be extinct. Therefore, verifying the factors causing the decline and those limiting recovery is becoming increasingly urgent. Active adaptive management can be used to test putative agents, such as introduced predators. Insurance populations and ecological monitoring should also be included in an integrated conservation and management strategy for the species.

Potentials and Limitations of Stock Enhancement in Marine Recreational Fisheries Systems: An Integrative Review of Florida's Red Drum Enhancement

In this study, an integrative review of the potential for stock enhancement is conducted to support desirable management outcomes in marine recreational fisheries, focusing on the Florida, USA, red drum fishery as a case study. Here, stock enhancement is implicitly seen as a way of simultaneously achieving both ecological objectives of sustained wild fish populations and socioeconomic objectives of high fishing effort and/or catch rates. However, the review suggests that a fundamental tradeoff remains between these objectives in the short-term because stocking of hatchery fish is likely to result in at least partial displacement of wild fish through biological interactions as well as increased fishing pressure. Contrary to the perception of enhancement as a “quick fix,” successful use of the approach in the marine recreational fishery is likely to require sophisticated stock management and some adaptation in governance. In developing the enhancement, it will be necessary to address uncertainty in key attributes, specifically dynamics of recruitment, angler-effort responses, and stakeholder involvement. This may be achieved by combining quantitative modeling, monitoring, and stocking experiments in an active adaptive management framework to consider enhancement in the context of alternative management strategies. It is suggested that any interim enhancement should minimize ecological risk per socioeconomic benefit by stocking larger fish in areas where high fishing mortality limits abundance of wild fish. These conclusions are largely generalizable to other recreational enhancements, and this work serves as a model of rarely published a priori enhancement evaluation.

Making Monitoring Count: Project Design for Active Adaptive Management

Ongoing environmental change requires that managers develop strategies capable of achieving multiple objectives in an uncertain future. Active adaptive management (AAM) offers a robust approach to reducing uncertainty while also considering diverse stakeholder perspectives. Important features of AAM include recognition of learning as a management objective, integration of monitoring throughout all aspects of project design and implementation, and use of experimental design in project planning. These features facilitate collaborator engagement and adaptive management based on credible inferences about treatment effects. AAM is not research: the primary goal in AAM is to meet management objectives, one of which is to learn about tradeoffs among alternative management approaches. We outline a pragmatic method to enhance the value of monitoring by incorporating experimental design principles into project planning, including a checklist of key questions for decisionmakers and stakeholders, and illustrate these concepts with an example from the Helena National Forest, Montana, USA.

Evaluating a multispecies adaptive management framework: must uncertainty impede effective decision‐making?

SummaryApplication of adaptive management to complex natural resource systems requires careful evaluation to ensure that the process leads to improved decision‐making. As part of that evaluation, adaptive policies can be compared with alternative nonadaptive management scenarios. Also, the value of reducing structural (ecological) uncertainty to achieving management objectives can be quantified.A multispecies adaptive management framework was recently adopted by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission for sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabsLimulus polyphemus,while maintaining adequate stopover habitat for migrating red knotsCalidris canutus rufa, the focal shorebird species. The predictive model set encompassed the structural uncertainty in the relationships between horseshoe crab spawning, red knot weight gain and red knot vital rates. Stochastic dynamic programming was used to generate a state‐dependent strategy for harvest decisions given that uncertainty. In this paper, we employed a management strategy evaluation approach to evaluate the performance of this adaptive management framework. Active adaptive management was used by including model weights as state variables in the optimization and reducing structural uncertainty by model weight updating.We found that the value of information for reducing structural uncertainty is expected to be low, because the uncertainty does not appear to impede effective management. Harvest policy responded to abundance levels of both species regardless of uncertainty in the specific relationship that generated those abundances. Thus, the expected horseshoe crab harvest and red knot abundance were similar when the population generating model was uncertain or known, and harvest policy was robust to structural uncertainty as specified.Synthesis and applications. The combination of management strategy evaluation with state‐dependent strategies from stochastic dynamic programming was an informative approach to evaluate adaptive management performance and value of learning. Although natural resource decisions are characterized by uncertainty, not all uncertainty will cause decisions to be altered substantially, as we found in this case. It is important to incorporate uncertainty into the decision framing and evaluate the effect of reducing that uncertainty on achieving the desired outcomes.

A density projection approach for non-trivial information dynamics: Adaptive management of stochastic natural resources

We demonstrate a density projection approximation method for solving resource management problems with imperfect state information. The method expands the set of partially-observed Markov decision process (POMDP) problems that can be solved with standard dynamic programming tools by addressing dimensionality problems in the decision maker's belief state. Density projection is suitable for uncertainty over both physical states (e.g. resource stock) and process structure (e.g. biophysical parameters). We apply the method to an adaptive management problem under structural uncertainty in which a fishery manager's harvest policy affects both the stock of fish and the belief state about the process governing reproduction. We solve for the optimal endogenous learning policy—the active adaptive management approach—and compare it to passive learning and non-learning strategies. We demonstrate how learning improves efficiency but typically follows a period of costly short-run investment.

The science of ecosystem-based management on a global scale: The Laurentian Great Lakes, Lake Ontario, and the Bay of Quinte as a nested case study

Lake ecosystems are our sentinels of environmental change and their effective management is one of our key planetary challenges in the 21st century. The evolution of ecosystem science as a basis for management is reviewed using the nested set of the Laurentian Great Lakes, Lake Ontario, and the Bay of Quinte as a primary focus. Other great lakes of the world, many of which are in Canada, provide a secondary focus. Ecosystem science has a long history in the Laurentian Great Lakes with developments driven in large part by the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement, Lake-Wide Management Plans, and Remedial Action Plans for Areas of Concern. By comparison most other large Canadian lakes have received little attention as is the case with many of the world's great lakes. The substantial arsenal of tools and knowledge accumulated in the Great Lakes can serve as a model for other lake systems. As the range of ecosystem management problems has continued to grow, the motivating theme has shifted from restoration through rehabilitation to adaptation. The main challenge is to coalesce the many stresses we previously have sought to manage singly: land use, population growth, habitat degradation, resource exploitation, invasive species, pollutant and contaminant loadings, and, finally, climate change. Essential features of effective ecosystem-based management are: a whole system view, active adaptive management, acceptance of science-based evidence, and shared goals with common objectives. The last two may prove the greatest hurdle as society becomes ever more divided and fractious given the global onslaught of environmental and societal challenges. The Great Lakes experience shows there is hope.

Using Range Condition Assessment to Optimize Wildlife Stocking in Tindress Wildlife Sanctuary, Nakuru District, Kenya

Over 70% of Kenya’s wildlife resources occur outside protected areas, in areas where land use practices do not necessarily conform to wildlife conservation standards. Ensuring that land use practices in these areas accommodate wildlife conservation is vital in effectively conserving wildlife in this country. Tindress Farm in Rift Valley offers a good example of a place where economic activities and wildlife conservation can work harmoniously. The farm has set up a 320-ha wildlife sanctuary in the hilly parts of the property to provide a haven for wildlife displaced by human settlements in the surrounding environs. The Tindress Farm management needed to know the diversity and optimum number of wildlife species that the sanctuary could accommodate. This study set out to 1) outline a set of models for objectively calculating wildlife stocking levels and 2) demonstrate the practical use of these models in estimating optimum stocking levels for a specific wildlife sanctuary. After comparing models using forage inventory methods models and utilization-based methods (UM), we opted to use UM models because of their focus on ecological energetics. This study established that the range condition in Tindress Wildlife Sanctuary varied from poor to good (29–69%) and recommended a total stocking density of 158.9 grazer units and 201.4 browser units shared out by the various herbivore species. These estimates remain a best-case scenario. The effects of rainfall, range condition, and condition of the animals should be monitored continuously to allow for adjustments through active adaptive management.

Active adaptive management for reintroduction of an animal population

Captive animals are frequently reintroduced to the wild in the face of uncertainty, but that uncertainty can often be reduced over the course of the reintroduction effort, providing the opportunity for adaptive management. One common uncertainty in reintroductions is the short-term survival rate of released adults (a release cost), an important factor because it can affect whether releasing adults or juveniles is better. Information about this rate can improve the success of the reintroduction program, but does the expected gain offset the costs of obtaining the information? I explored this question for reintroduction of the griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus) by framing the management question as a belief Markov decision process, characterizing uncertainty about release cost with 2 information state variables, and finding the solution using stochastic dynamic programming. For a reintroduction program of fixed length (e.g., 5 years of releases), the optimal policy in the final release year resembles the deterministic solution: release either all adults or all juveniles depending on whether the point estimate for the survival rate in question is above or below a specific threshold. But the optimal policy in the earlier release years 1) includes release of a mixture of juveniles and adults under some circumstances, and 2) recommends release of adults even when the point estimate of survival is much less than the deterministic threshold. These results show that in an iterated decision setting, the optimal decision in early years can be quite different from that in later years because of the value of learning. © 2013 The Wildlife Society.

Practical applications of monitoring results to improve managing for coral reef resilience: a case study in the Mexican Caribbean

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are promoted as an effective strategy to balance human use and conservation of marine resources, yet case studies have shown mixed results regarding MPA success. Managing to promote resilience is widely recognized as a priority for MPAs that focus on the conservation of coral reefs and the ecological services they provide. To this end, there is an acute need to develop and implement methods that assimilate monitoring results into comprehensive summaries that can be understood and acted upon by local management to promote resilience. We used the Parque Nacional Arrecife de Puerto Morelos (PNAPM) as a model MPA to evaluate the utility of a resilience index framework proposed by Maynard et al. (Coral Reefs 29:381–391, 2010b) that uses a suite of broad- and local-scale indicators to rank the relative resilience of sites. Based on monitoring data we identify local stressors adversely impacting coral reef resilience that can be influenced by management actions. Improving regulation enforcement, conducting targeted invasive species removals, reallocating and restricting tourist activities, and establishing nutrient level regulations were identified as realistic adaptive management actions to promote resilience within the PNAPM. This first application of the Maynard et al. (Coral Reefs 29:381–391, 2010b) resilience index framework to a Caribbean MPA provides an example for MPA managers of the value of their monitoring data and the utility of a broadly applicable management tool to assist in managerial decisions. Moving beyond simply monitoring sites to management action is essential to promote resilience and maintain the health and existence of coral reef ecosystems.

Evolving new Governance approaches for the Agulhas and Somali Current Large Marine Ecosystems through Dynamic Management Strategies and partnerships

Until very recently, the western Indian Ocean region and its LMEs were poorly understood. In the last 4–5 years, detailed coastal and offshore observations have revealed a wealth of information on the role of current patterns, ocean–atmosphere interactions, habitat and species distribution, and their impacts on the sustainable livelihoods of dependent communities. This new information provides the countries of the WIO with a baseline from which to measure changes within the ecosystem and to predict the likely impacts on marine resources. Most recently, the countries and their partners (NGOs, IGOs, international and regional scientific bodies, etc.) have started to forge a regional alliance (the Western Indian Ocean Sustainable Ecosystem Alliance, WIOSEA). WIOSEA aims to maintain a long-term ecosystem monitoring programme to detect changes from the baseline; to strengthen skill-sets in the region through focused training programmes; to build stronger capacity for modelling and predicting the effects of change; to translate the scientific conclusions and the outputs of high-resolution models and their predictions into pragmatic adaptive management actions and policy decisions, and conversely, to identify and agree on management and policy needs and translate these into research activities. WIOSEA is exploring and evolving a “Dynamic Management Strategy” that will advise action on the basis of a peer-reviewed weight-of-evidence that adopts the validity of trends in the data in terms of management needs and actions, even in the absence of 95–99% confidence limits. This approach has many advantages both to the scientific community and to the management and decision-making sectors of government.

Maladie thromboembolique veineuse

The selection of metrics for ecosystem restoration programs is critical for improving the quality and utility of design and monitoring programs, informing adaptive management actions, and characterizing project success. The metrics selection process, that in practice is left to the subjective judgment of stakeholders, is often complex and should simultaneously take into account monitoring data, environmental models, socio-economic considerations, and stakeholder interests. With limited funding, it is often very difficult to balance the importance of multiple metrics, often competing, intended to measure different environmental, social, and economic aspects of the system. To help restoration planners and practitioners develop the most useful and informative design and monitoring programs, we propose the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, broadly defined, to select optimal ecosystem restoration metric sets. In this paper, we apply and compare two MCDA methods, multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT), and probabilistic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (ProMAA), for a hypothetical river restoration case study involving multiple stakeholders with competing interests. Overall, the MCDA results in a systematic, quantitative, and transparent evaluation and comparison of potential metrics that provides planners and practitioners with a clear basis for selecting the optimal set of metrics to evaluate restoration alternatives and to inform restoration design and monitoring. In our case study, the two MCDA methods provide comparable results in terms of selected metrics. However, because ProMAA can consider probability distributions for weights and utility values of metrics for each criterion, it is most likely the best option for projects with highly uncertain data and significant stakeholder involvement. Despite the increase in complexity in the metrics selection process, MCDA improves upon the current, commonly-used ad-hoc decision practice based on consultations with stakeholders by applying and presenting quantitative aggregation of data and judgment, thereby increasing the effectiveness of environmental design and monitoring and the transparency of decision making in restoration projects.

Sustainable management for rangelands in a variable climate: evidence and insights from northern Australia

Inter-annual rainfall variability is a major challenge to sustainable and productive grazing management on rangelands. In Australia, rainfall variability is particularly pronounced and failure to manage appropriately leads to major economic loss and environmental degradation. Recommended strategies to manage sustainably include stocking at long-term carrying capacity (LTCC) or varying stock numbers with forage availability. These strategies are conceptually simple but difficult to implement, given the scale and spatial heterogeneity of grazing properties and the uncertainty of the climate. This paper presents learnings and insights from northern Australia gained from research and modelling on managing for rainfall variability. A method to objectively estimate LTCC in large, heterogeneous paddocks is discussed, and guidelines and tools to tactically adjust stocking rates are presented. The possible use of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) in management is also considered. Results from a 13-year grazing trial in Queensland show that constant stocking at LTCC was far more profitable and largely maintained land condition compared with heavy stocking (HSR). Variable stocking (VAR) with or without the use of SCF was marginally more profitable, but income variability was greater and land condition poorer than constant stocking at LTCC. Two commercial scale trials in the Northern Territory with breeder cows highlighted the practical difficulties of variable stocking and provided evidence that heavier pasture utilisation rates depress reproductive performance. Simulation modelling across a range of regions in northern Australia also showed a decline in resource condition and profitability under heavy stocking rates. Modelling further suggested that the relative value of variable v. constant stocking depends on stocking rate and land condition. Importantly, variable stocking may possibly allow slightly higher stocking rates without pasture degradation. Enterprise-level simulations run for breeder herds nevertheless show that poor economic performance can occur under constant stocking and even under variable stocking in some circumstances. Modelling and research results both suggest that a form of constrained flexible stocking should be applied to manage for climate variability. Active adaptive management and research will be required as future climate changes make managing for rainfall variability increasingly challenging.

Evolution récente et future des paysages sylvo-pastoraux du Jura vaudois

Recent and future evolution of the silvopastoral landscape in the Jura vaudois Land-use management in silvopastoral landscapes is particularly complex because such ecosystems depend on a subtle equilibrium in the management scheme which aims to provide various ecological goods and services such as fodder, timber and biodiversity, as well as areas for leisure and attractive scenery. In this study we investigated land-use changes in the Parc naturel régional Jura vaudois, and the changes in tree cover density in two pastures using land-use statistics and aerial photographs. A prospective modelling approach was also undertaken on one pasture to assess changes in the landscape structure under two climate scenarios. A general tendency towards segregation between closed forests and open pastures was observed. The agriculture policy has markedly influenced the dynamics of tree cover density, but this effect depended very much on the local situation, for example, the proximity of a village, which allows a better optimization of farm management. The simulation of future development of these landscapes suggests that one might expect large changes in the structure and composition of the vegetation because of climate change. In the long run, areas of high tree densities will expand, and spruce will give way to beech and pine, depending on the warming intensity. Nevertheless, adaptation to new environmental conditions for sustaining ecological goods and services will call for management measures appropriate to the intensity of climate change. Furthermore, an active adaptive management based on experimentation and innovation, as well as allowing collaboration between scientists and land managers will be required to face and mitigate the ecological problems associated with climate change.

Multi-criteria decision analysis to select metrics for design and monitoring of sustainable ecosystem restorations

The selection of metrics for ecosystem restoration programs is critical for improving the quality and utility of design and monitoring programs, informing adaptive management actions, and characterizing project success. The metrics selection process, that in practice is left to the subjective judgment of stakeholders, is often complex and should simultaneously take into account monitoring data, environmental models, socio-economic considerations, and stakeholder interests. With limited funding, it is often very difficult to balance the importance of multiple metrics, often competing, intended to measure different environmental, social, and economic aspects of the system. To help restoration planners and practitioners develop the most useful and informative design and monitoring programs, we propose the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, broadly defined, to select optimal ecosystem restoration metric sets. In this paper, we apply and compare two MCDA methods, multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT), and probabilistic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (ProMAA), for a hypothetical river restoration case study involving multiple stakeholders with competing interests. Overall, the MCDA results in a systematic, quantitative, and transparent evaluation and comparison of potential metrics that provides planners and practitioners with a clear basis for selecting the optimal set of metrics to evaluate restoration alternatives and to inform restoration design and monitoring. In our case study, the two MCDA methods provide comparable results in terms of selected metrics. However, because ProMAA can consider probability distributions for weights and utility values of metrics for each criterion, it is most likely the best option for projects with highly uncertain data and significant stakeholder involvement. Despite the increase in complexity in the metrics selection process, MCDA improves upon the current, commonly-used ad-hoc decision practice based on consultations with stakeholders by applying and presenting quantitative aggregation of data and judgment, thereby increasing the effectiveness of environmental design and monitoring and the transparency of decision making in restoration projects.

The intermediate‐term effects of PZP immunocontraception: behavioural monitoring of the treated elephant females and associated family groups

AbstractRapidly increasing elephant populations are raising concerns, especially within enclosed conservation areas in southern Africa. Elephant immunocontraception is an effective management tool, enabling conservation managers to control elephant population growth rates, but the behavioural consequences of this intervention needs to be studied more intensively and over longer periods of time. This is especially important as the potential risk of disturbance, and the ethical concerns over the welfare of wildlife, can compromise the success of management interventions. We determined the influence of immunocontraception application on behaviour of family groups. The disruption effect of immunocontraception darting on the family groups within the population was minimal, with no significant changes found in the mobility of family groups. Analysis of family group fission and fusion indicated that family groups spent more time alone during the second year of contraception application; this could be a consequence of maturation of the relatively young population. There was no significant relationship between bulls' association with family groups and the number of oestrous females present in the group. With negligible short‐term effects on the behaviour of family groups, immunocontraception may be an effective, flexible management tool. Furthermore, this study showed that monitoring and assessment of behavioural assays during active adaptive management is important to determine conservation outcomes and to ensure future management success.

Faustian bargains? Restoration realities in the context of biodiversity offset policies

The science and practice of ecological restoration are increasingly being called upon to compensate for the loss of biodiversity values caused by development projects. Biodiversity offsetting—compensating for losses of biodiversity at an impact site by generating ecologically equivalent gains elsewhere—therefore places substantial faith in the ability of restoration to recover lost biodiversity. Furthermore, the increase in offset-led restoration multiplies the consequences of failure to restore, since the promise of effective restoration may increase the chance that damage to biodiversity is permitted. But what evidence exists that restoration science and practice can reliably, or even feasibly, achieve the goal of ‘no net loss’ of biodiversity, and under what circumstances are successes and failures more likely? Using recent reviews of the restoration ecology literature, we examine the effectiveness of restoration as an approach for offsetting biodiversity loss, and conclude that many of the expectations set by current offset policy for ecological restoration remain unsupported by evidence. We introduce a conceptual model that illustrates three factors that limit the technical success of offsets: time lags, uncertainty and measurability of the value being offset. These factors can be managed to some extent through sound offset policy design that incorporates active adaptive management, time discounting, explicit accounting for uncertainty, and biodiversity banking. Nevertheless, the domain within which restoration can deliver ‘no net loss’ offsets remains small. A narrowing of the gap between the expectations set by offset policies and the practice of offsetting is urgently required and we urge the development of stronger links between restoration ecologists and those who make policies that are reliant upon restoration science.

Increasing resilience of natural protected areas to future climate change: A fuzzy adaptive management approach

Climate change and variability is a major threat to natural protected areas that is likely to change the mix of ecosystem goods and services provided by such areas in the future. Managers of natural protected areas may be able to increase the resilience of natural protected areas to climate change and variability by implementing compensatory management actions and evaluating their efficacy using active adaptive management. A fuzzy multiple attribute-adaptive management method is proposed that determines the most preferred compensatory management actions for increasing the resilience of natural protected areas to future climate change and variability. Use of the method requires managers to: (1) identify compensatory management actions that can alleviate potential negative impacts of future climate change and variability on natural protected areas; (2) choose the attributes of compensatory management actions used to assess their efficacy; (3) conduct statistically valid experiments in each time period that generate sample values of the attributes; (4) use the fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity of Ideal Solution to rank compensatory management actions in each time period within a planning horizon; and (5) use the rankings to determine the optimal adaptive management strategy for a planning horizon. The method accounts for uncertainty about the nature of future climate change and variability and the extent to which compensatory management actions reduce potential adverse impacts of climate change and variability on natural protected areas and uses statistically valid experiments to evaluate the efficacy of compensatory management actions. Accordingly, the proposed method is superior to other methods such as safe minimum standard, precautionary principle, minimax regret criterion, scenario planning, and passive adaptive management.