Anticipatory Activity Research Articles

How do information problems constrain anticipating, mitigating, and responding to crises?

The explosion in data availability and new analytical tools combined with increasing humanitarian need and the imperative of anticipatory action compel us to rethink humanitarian information systems and humanitarian action for the future. Synthesizing interviews with humanitarian practitioners, donors, analysts, and researchers and analyses of early warning (EW) information systems and their linkages to Anticipatory Action (AA), we describe six information challenges within the current system: abundant but confusing information, the difficulty of predicting conflict, politicized information, limitations of new analytical tools, varying information needs, and limited data sharing. We then propose an approach to improve the timeliness and appropriateness of action for humanitarian crises and disasters. Rather than ask, “What can we do with the information (early warning and otherwise) that we have to inform action?” we propose asking, “What information do we need for anticipatory (and other) action?” In other words, we propose planning from known and likely hazards and actions back to information needs. Such an approach should help to mitigate shocks before they cause major humanitarian crises. While not all crises can be prevented, this approach could also support responsive action, which is equally important for protecting human life and dignity.

Climate change risk assessment of heritage tourism sites within South African national parks

Climate change and variability are among the most critical threats facing heritage sites across the world. However, despite the threats posed by climate change and variability on heritage tourism sites, there are limited research and management interventions to help build the resilience of threatened sites. South African national parks are home to numerous heritage sites, including unique ecosystems, prehistoric ruins and rock art, which are still undocumented. This research assesses the risks imposed by climate change and variability on heritage sites within selected South African national parks. Assessing and prioritising risk is important to designing effective conservation and preservation strategies. The participatory Climate Vulnerability Index was used to assess climate vulnerability on three heritage sites within Kruger, Mapungubwe and Table Mountain national parks. The research developed and used a seven scale semi-quantitative risk analysis tool to rank and prioritise the identified climate related threats. Survey questionnaires were administered to park visitors to assess their perceptions of climate change impacts on heritage sites. Discussions with key informants were also done using in-depth interviews and focus groups. The results show that the vulnerability of heritage sites to climate change was high at all sites. Warming temperatures, drought and flooding intense rainfall are the main climatic stressors. A SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic, and Timely) action list for the identified critical climate related risks was developed. To build future resilience, the paper recommends changes in how threatened tourism heritage sites are presented to visitors, improved funding for the documentation of the impacts of climate change on the heritage sites and developing anticipatory action to manage potential impacts.

Assessing the safety effect through Google Maps usage: FMEA approach (Case study: Indonesia)

As the most popular navigation application used in Indonesia, Google Maps provides route information with the shortest route or the fastest travel time. Unfortunately, Google Maps does not consider the safety aspect regarding warnings about the unsafe roads or the unsuitability of road conditions with the type of vehicles that may increase the safety risks for road users. This research aims to assess the safety effect of Google Maps usage by using the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) approach to identify the results or effects of an item’s failure on system operation and to classify each potential failure according to its severity. In the end, FMEA will also analyze the safety aspects of Google Maps by determining the Risk Priority Number (RPN) as the product of severity, occurrence, and detection to prioritize the anticipatory actions, mitigations, and strategies against the highest level of risk. The data source was received from questionnaires distributed to more than a thousand respondents through an online survey that represented the user characteristics of using Google Maps in Indonesia. As the result, the potential failure mode of “Google Maps doesn't give a speeding warning” is assessed as the highest risk level of RPN, thus indicating the recommended action is by providing a speeding warning in the form of audible notification, without disturbing the driver while driving.

Reduction of anticipatory brain activity in anxious people and regulatory effect of response-related feedback.

Elevated anxiety levels degrade task performance, likely because of cognitive function reduction in the frontoparietal brain network. This study aimed to test whether anxiety could impact the frontal cortex anticipatory brain functions and to investigate the possible beneficial effect of response-related feedback on task performance. The electroencephalographic activity was recorded while participants performed two Go/No-go tasks: one with response-related feedback on errors (feedback task) and one task without feedback (standard task). We first tested whether anxiety levels could be associated with pre-stimulus ERP components such as the prefrontal negativity (pN), linked with top-down attentional control, and the Bereitschaftspotential (BP), related to motor preparation. Then, we assessed whether feedback could affect anxious people's brain preparation, reducing the state of uncertainty and improving performance. Results showed that the pN was almost absent and the BP was lower during a standard task in the high anxiety than in the low anxiety group. In the feedback task, these components increased in the high anxious, becoming comparable to the low anxious. Behavioral results showed that false alarms in the high anxiety group were larger than in the low anxiety group during the standard task but became comparable in the feedback task. Similarly, response time in the high anxiety group was slower in the standard task than in the feedback task, and high anxious people were faster in the feedback task than in the standard one. This study contributes to clarifying neural correlates of anxiety, showing brain activity reductions related to action preparation in frontal areas. In addition, response-related feedback tasks could be used to normalize task performance in high anxious people.

Predictive and perceptual phonemic processing in articulatory motor areas: A prediction potential & mismatch negativity study

The recent finding of predictive brain signals preceding anticipated perceptual and linguistic stimuli opens new questions for experimental research. Here, we address the possible brain basis of phonological predictions regarding the features of specific speech sounds and their relationship to phonological priming. To this end, we recorded EEG correlates of both pre- and post-stimulus brain responses in a phonological priming study. Redundant spoken sounds induced stimulus expectations, which manifested as a slow-wave anticipatory activity (the Prediction Potential, PP), whereas articulatory-congruent (e.g.,/bƏ/in the context of expected/pƏ/) pairs elicited weaker post-stimulus MMN-like responses as compared to the articulatory-incongruent (e.g.,/bƏ/in the context of expected/dƏ/) pairs, a pattern reminiscent of perceptual priming mediated by articulatory-motor areas. Source analysis reveal clusters of activation in lateral prefrontal, temporal and ventral motor areas, thus providing the proof of the relevance of multimodal representation units subserving predictive and perceptual phonemic processing.

The future as a public good: decolonising the future through anticipatory participatory action research

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to nurture reflections on the colonization of the future in the present with a particular focus on Africa. This paper aims at exploring how participatory research and particularly anticipatory action research can contribute to a decolonising process.Design/methodology/approachConsidering the future as a public good, this paper develops a reflection on the colonization processes that can turn it into a club or a private good. This paper mobilizes the notions of participatory knowledge production and local action research as a way to decolonize the future and empower imagination. This paper revisits the tenets of participatory action research as a means to achieve this objective and discusses the main features of a non-colonial anticipatory action research in the context of African futures.FindingsThis paper highlights the challenges associated with connecting anticipatory endeavours focusing on action research, the creation of collective intelligence and co-design, with the intention of encouraging the decolonisation process. It includes design principles and anticipates a possible process of counter-decolonization.Research limitations/implicationsThis is a conceptual paper, which does not provide field-tested evidence. Yet, the authors hope it serves as an input enabling to design methodologies that will prevent the colonisation of the future when engaging in future-oriented research activities in Africa and elsewhere.Originality/valueThis paper provides an integral approach to the colonisation of the future, as a renewed old question. This paper also connects this process with a reflection on the nature of what could be non-colonizing anticipatory action research.

Face specific neural anticipatory activity in infants 4 and 9 months old

The possibility of predicting the specific features of forthcoming environmental events is fundamental for our survival since it allows us to proactively regulate our behaviour, enhancing our chance of survival. This is particularly crucial for stimuli providing socially relevant information for communication and interaction, such as faces. While it has been consistently demonstrated that the human brain shows preferential and ontogenetically early face-evoked activity, it is unknown whether specialized neural routes are engaged by face-predictive activity early in life. In this study, we recorded high-density electrophysiological (ERP) activity in adults and 9- and 4-month-old infants undergoing an audio-visual paradigm purposely designed to predict the appearance of faces or objects starting from congruent auditory cues (i.e., human voice vs nonhuman sounds). Contingent negative variation or CNV was measured to investigate anticipatory activity as a reliable marker of stimulus expectancy even in the absence of explicit motor demand. The results suggest that CNV can also be reliably elicited in the youngest group of 4-month-old infants, providing further evidence that expectation-related anticipatory activity is an intrinsic, early property of the human cortex. Crucially, the findings also indicate that the predictive information provided by the cue (i.e., human voice vs nonhuman sounds) turns into the recruitment of different anticipatory neural dynamics for faces and objects.

Dopamine systems and biological rhythms: Let's get a move on.

How dopamine signaling regulates biological rhythms is an area of emerging interest. Here we review experiments focused on delineating dopamine signaling in the suprachiasmatic nucleus, nucleus accumbens, and dorsal striatum to mediate a range of biological rhythms including photoentrainment, activity cycles, rest phase eating of palatable food, diet-induced obesity, and food anticipatory activity. Enthusiasm for causal roles for dopamine in the regulation of circadian rhythms, particularly those associated with food and other rewarding events, is warranted. However, determining that there is rhythmic gene expression in dopamine neurons and target structures does not mean that they are bona fide circadian pacemakers. Given that dopamine has such a profound role in promoting voluntary movements, interpretation of circadian phenotypes associated with locomotor activity must be differentiated at the molecular and behavioral levels. Here we review our current understanding of dopamine signaling in relation to biological rhythms and suggest future experiments that are aimed at teasing apart the roles of dopamine subpopulations and dopamine receptor expressing neurons in causally mediating biological rhythms, particularly in relation to feeding, reward, and activity.

Multiform flood risk in a rapidly changing world: what we do not do, what we should and why it matters

Abstract There is an urgent need to raise awareness of the risks for generalizing ‘flood’ within the development of new risk assessment framework and adaptation strategies, and further outline opportunities for ensuring current and future multiform flood risk can be both assessed and reduced in particular for the most vulnerable populations. This requires enhancing modelling capabilities to embed the different yet interlinked dimensions of subtypes of climate shocks and their feedbacks. As we continue to see an increase in occurrence of compound risk, the importance of flood type specificity will grow, especially as areas experience certain types of floods for the first time. In this perspective we review current efforts to integrate flood risk within public and private sectors across the hazard modelling, financial and macroeconomic and humanitarian communities. We argue that while there are ongoing efforts in compound risk assessment, compound risk financing and compound risk anticipatory action, they remain almost exclusively focused on compounding of a primary disaster type, and fail to highlight the important differences of ‘subtypes’ of events (which from an impact profile perspective, can be as different as primary types). We then provide recommendations for developing climate change-responsive risk assessment methods and risk mitigation policy for multiform flood events.

The reaction of G20+ stock markets to the Russia–Ukraine conflict “black-swan” event: Evidence from event study approach

In this paper we examine the impact of the breakout of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the G20 and other selected stock markets using the event study approach. The analysis of the abnormal returns (AR) before and after the launch of the ‘special military operation’ by Russian military forces on the 24th of February 2022 revealed a strong negative impact of this military action on a majority of the stock markets, especially on the Russian market. The aggregate stock market analysis indicates a significant and negative impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on the event day and post event days. The country-wise analysis demonstrated that the stock markets of Hungary, Russia, Poland, and Slovakia were first to react in anticipation of the military actions in Ukraine, showing negative returns in pre- event days already, whereas the stock markets of Australia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Romania, South Africa, Spain, and Turkey were adversely affected in the post-invasion days. Finally, the regional analysis indicates that the European and Asian regions are significantly and adversely affected by this event.

AQI revisioned: a critical realism approach to transforming air pollution

PurposeThis paper aims to present the case for critical realism (CR) as a framework in steering the anticipatory and participatory activities an appropriate analysis of complex problems, aiming toward a transformative change.Design/methodology/approachThrough observation, interview and facilitation for Circular Design Lab and Thai Clean Air Network, this paper unpacks their foresight activities, their key findings and subsequently connects to the Morphogenesis analysis based on an alternative foresight epistemology of CR.FindingsForesight based on CR philosophy provides a deeper understanding of the complexity and invisibility of air pollution issues in Thailand. Acknowledging the transitive reality beyond this study’s perception, the activity design applies the iceberg models to investigate problem framing and illustrate the stratified reality in three domains: the empirical based on emission reports and legislative regulations; the actual based on patterns of farmers practice and industrial development, activated by causal mechanisms; the real based on structural and mental models, driven by cultural and belief systems in Thailand. At the bottom layer of the iceberg, the real lies the generative mechanisms of pre-existing structural and cultures that constrain Thai citizen from acting on social change.Research limitations/implicationsCR’s emancipatory theory provides an immanent critique towards social improvement by illustrating comprehensive causal explanations of complex problems such as air pollution; while morphogenesis theory elaborates on the unconscious domination of the existing social structures, agencies, and cultures. Thus, the ethical inquiry of CR research is committed to the emancipation of false beliefs and creating conditions for “human prosperity”. However, this non-neutral value commitment is debated in the futures studies field.Practical implicationsThe anticipatory activities on air pollution in Thailand bring to light the reality of power and oppression beyond human perception and illustrate the connection to the belief systems and its consequential action or lack thereof in dealing with the issues. The insight to power relationship provides an unconventional way to empower citizens in creating transformative change.Originality/valueModern foresight practice has developed under western cultures and societies. Recent efforts are made to investigate the epistemology underlying this field, for the future issues are ever more complex and interrelated across multiple sectors. This requires this study’s consideration of the meaning of knowledge and knowing, influencing the research paradigm. This paper proposes CR as a suitable foresight approach to emancipate this study from the widely accepted epistemologies and examine this study’s presupposition about social reality by a philosophical explanation based on the elements of ontology, causation, structure and persons.

Strike or ball? Batters know it better: an fMRI study of action anticipation in baseball players.

To assess whether the brain processes of action anticipation are modulated differently by perceptual and motor experiences, baseball batters, pitchers, and non-players were asked to predict the fate of pitching actions (strike or ball) while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging. Results showed both batters (perceptual experts of pitching action) and pitchers (motor experts) were more accurate than non-players. Furthermore, batters demonstrated higher perceptual sensitivity in discriminating strikes than non-players. All groups engaged the action observation network, putamen, and cerebellum during anticipation, while pitchers showed higher activity than non-players in the left premotor cortex, which has been implicated in the internal simulation of observed action. Only batters exhibited differences in strike versus ball pitches in their left ventral extrastriate cortex, which might be associated with the processing of relevant visual information conveyed by the observed pitcher's movement kinematics and pitch trajectory. Moreover, all groups showed higher activity selectively in the striatum, thalamus, sensorimotor cortices, and cerebellum during correct predictions than during incorrect ones, with most widespread activation in batters, reinforcing the greater involvement of the sensorimotor system in perceptual experience. Our findings demonstrate that perceptual experience might enhance action anticipation ability to a greater extent than motor experience, with overlapping but specific neural underpinnings.

Special Report: How to Work With Patients Using Problem-Focused Psychodynamic Psychotherapies

Special Report: How to Work With Patients Using Problem-Focused Psychodynamic Psychotherapies

Has the Adaptation‐Mitigation Binary Outlived Its Value? Indigenous Ways of Knowing Present an Alternative

AbstractCommunity‐level actions addressing anthropogenic climate change are paramount to survival. However, there are limitations to the current binary approach which considers adaptation and mitigation as mutually exclusive actions. Drawing from research in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan, this commentary demonstrates: (a) Indigenous knowledge, emerging from a deep connectivity to habitat, cumulative over generations, and empirically‐based, is the foundation of ecological calendars; (b) ecological calendars build anticipatory capacity, the ability to envision possible and sustainable futures, for anthropogenic climate change; and (c) this anticipatory approach engages adaptive and mitigative actions to climate change working in tandem to ensure wellbeing and food security. This paper maintains that the adaptation‐mitigation continuum involves foresight and action today in preparation for future change. Furthermore, context‐specific ecological calendars represent an effective mechanism for communities to build and retain knowledge across generations and deep connections to their habitat. Finally, further modeling needs to be undertaken with participation and leadership from Indigenous and rural communities to understand how they use the adaptation‐mitigation continuum for anticipatory action to develop multiple optimal solutions to address environmental change.

Anticipatory and Compensatory Postural Adjustments in Response to Dynamic Platform Perturbation during a Forward Step

We investigated the generation of anticipatory (APAs) and compensatory postural adjustments (CPAs) in preparation for a step during support surface perturbation. Changes in anticipatory muscle activation in the trunk segment were predominantly in the co-contraction indices from −600 t 0 −400 ms to foot-off. Reciprocal indices of the shank muscles were pronounced in the APA intervals. During the CPA intervals, larger reciprocal muscle activities were detected compared to the APA intervals. The results showed subjects co-varied the reciprocal and co-contraction activations in postural muscles to counteract the perturbation and generate mechanical effects sufficient for stepping during the APA and CPA intervals. This study enhances our understanding of the interaction between the APAs and CPAs in balance maintenance.

Pendidikan Siaga Bencana melalui Pembelajaran Integratif bagi Siswa SD

This research aimed to analyze implement disaster preparedness education through integrative learning on elementary schools and the obstacles in implementing it. This research was a qualitative research. Data was collected using the methods of observation, interviews, and documentation. Analysis of the data using the theory of Miles and Huberman, namely by reducing data, displaying data, and drawing conclusions. The results showed that the two schools linked disaster preparedness materials in the main subjects, so they did not stand as separate subjects. There were differences in the mapping of material aspects, even though the two schools present material on disasters, but they were adjusted to see the potential for natural disasters that occur in their respective regions. The material aspects presented in both schools were disaster knowledge, threats from disasters, disasters viewed from several aspects, and anticipatory actions to reduce the risks caused. Implementation refered to the parameters of disaster preparedness, namely school policies, building knowledge and attitudes through integrative learning, making emergency response plans and early warnings that had been mutually agreed upon, and maximizing the mobilization of existing resources in schools to achieve disaster preparedness goals

Pendidikan Siaga Bencana melalui Pembelajaran Integratif bagi Siswa SD

This research aimed to analyze implement disaster preparedness education through integrative learning on elementary schools and the obstacles in implementing it. This research was a qualitative research. Data was collected using the methods of observation, interviews, and documentation. Analysis of the data using the theory of Miles and Huberman, namely by reducing data, displaying data, and drawing conclusions. The results showed that the two schools linked disaster preparedness materials in the main subjects, so they did not stand as separate subjects. There were differences in the mapping of material aspects, even though the two schools present material on disasters, but they were adjusted to see the potential for natural disasters that occur in their respective regions. The material aspects presented in both schools were disaster knowledge, threats from disasters, disasters viewed from several aspects, and anticipatory actions to reduce the risks caused. Implementation refered to the parameters of disaster preparedness, namely school policies, building knowledge and attitudes through integrative learning, making emergency response plans and early warnings that had been mutually agreed upon, and maximizing the mobilization of existing resources in schools to achieve disaster preparedness goals

Action Anticipation in First-Person Videos with Self-Attention Based Multi-Modal Network

Action Anticipation in First-Person Videos with Self-Attention Based Multi-Modal Network

Useful Approaches in Training and Developing the Professional Conduct of Land Forces Tactical Operational Leaders

Abstract The professional development of military leaders in accordance with the requirements of global and regional military challenges calls for their continuous education and training that harness the intellectual and practical tools necessary for the success of military action in times of peace, crisis or possible armed conflict, determined over time by the conditions of an unpredictable and unstable world. Regardless of the challenges faced today by NATO and by the military, it is obvious that the leaders of tactical structures must acquire moral and ethical qualities necessary for the leadership of operational military organizations in theatres (areas) of operations characterized by uncertainty and increased risk. This objective of this article is to highlight some aspects related to the tactical military leader’s attributes and competences that typify their professional conduct, which allow them to master the art of effective and successful operational leadership in the context of tactical combat structures These abilities are acquired progressively, during training and throughout military university studies as well as afterwards. Given the technological evolution of tactical combat potential and the need to ensure operational resilience through proactive and anticipatory risk management actions, we can argue that the leadership process characterizing this commander is quite different from the one of the past. Our approach is based on connections with some concepts that are considered familiar, due to the fact that, in the future, the leadership performed by the leader of a tactical operational structure will be increasingly complex and, consequently, will require ongoing learning and training.

THE URGENCY OF TA'ZIR IMPLEMENTATION IN SHARIA BANKING

This study aims to see the urgency of implementing ta'zir in Islamic banking. Ta'zir is a form of sanction given to individuals or groups and institutions in the event of a violation that has been agreed upon. The provisions and forms of sanctions do not exist in Islamic law. Thus, there are pros and cons when applied to certain fields such as Islamic Financial Institutions. Because the mechanism and form are not explained. The application of ta'zir in Islamic banking refers to the provisions of the DSN-MUI fatwa No. 17/DSN-MUI/IX/2000 while the sanctions referred to in the regulation are sanctions for customers who can pay, but deliberately delay payments. This study is qualitative in nature by using library data sources. Data collection techniques are carried out using literature studies related to the object of research in the form of primary, secondary, and tertiary legal materials. The method used in this research is descriptive analysis. The urgency of implementing ta'zir in Islamic banking, especially for financing customers by the DSN-MUI fatwa criteria, is an effective rule to discipline and provide a deterrent effect to those who violate it. As an intermediary institution, of course, banks do not want and bear the losses arising from customer negligence or intentional in carrying out business contracts and transactions, so the regulation is made as a preventive measure and anticipatory action.