e12606 Background: ACOSOG Z0011 trial showed that in early cT1-2N0 breast cancer patients with 1-2 positive lymph nodes in sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) can safely omit axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) without compromising local control and long-term survival. Although it is widely accepted worldwide, controversy and concerns remain that the incidence of non-sentinel lymph node metastasis may lead to pathological lymph node (pN) upstaging and insufficient systemic treatment. This study aims to identify risk factors for having ≥4 metastatic lymph node (pN2-3) in patients who met Z0011 criteria and received SLNB. Methods: This is a retrospective study enrolled 733 cT1-2N0 breast cancer patients with 1-2 positive SLNs treated between 2011-2022 at Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital. All patients had received SLNB followed by ALND. Patients included were divided into the training and validation sets at a 7:3 ratio. Differences were compared between pN1(1-3 LN+) and pN2-3(≥4 LN+) in training set using either t test or chi-squared test. Multivariate logistic regression was conducted to identify risk factors for pN upstaging and to form the basis of a predictive nomogram. The validation was processed in the other validation set and nomogram performance was evaluated using the area under ROC curve (AUC). Results: Among the 733 patients enrolled, 127 (17.3%) patients had pN upstaging (pN2-3) after ALND. There was a big difference of pN upstaging between the patients with 1 (47/511, 9.2%) and 2 (80/222, 36%) positive SLNs. 488 patients were allocated to the training set, among which 18.2% had pN upstaging. In univariate analysis, pN were differed by cT stage, axillary ultrasound appearance, histological grade, molecular subtype, Ki67, lymph vascular invasion, pathological tumor size, SLN metastasis type (micrometastasis or macrometastasis), positive SLN numbers and negative SLN numbers. Multivariate logistic analysis resulted six independent risk factors associated to pN upstaging: ultrasound suspicious node (OR=1.93; 95% CI: 1.08-3.47), positive lympho-vascular invasion (OR=2.27; 95% CI: 1.25-4.13), larger tumor size (OR=2.07; 95% CI: 1.15-3.73), SLN macro-metastasis (OR= 9.15; 95% CI: 1.07-78.13), two positive SLNs (OR= 6.59; 95% CI:3.70-11.76) and less negative SLN number (OR=1.54; 95% CI: 1.22-1.89). These factors were used to construct a predictive nomogram, exhibiting excellent performance with AUC values of 0.819 and 0.827 in the training and validation cohorts respectively. Conclusions: The Z0011-eligible patients with two positive SLNs may have a high risk of pN upstaging and need to be cautious to spare ALND. A practical nomogram is helpful to identify patients at high risk of pN upstaging and avoid insufficient systemic treatment.
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