Accurate Yield Estimation Research Articles

Machine learning to predict incident atrial fibrillation in patients with acute stroke: FIND-AF STROKE

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF)-related strokes have a high rate of recurrence, and are associated with substantial morbidity, disability, healthcare expenditure, and mortality.(1-3) Detection of AF promises opportunity to prevent recurrent stroke through conversion of antiplatelet to anticoagulant therapy,(4,5) but use of extended monitoring has cost implications.(6) Thus accurately identifying patients with stroke at high risk for AF is important but previous previous models have been developed in small, unrepresentative cohorts.(7) Purpose To develop and validate a simple novel decision support tool for prediction of incident AF after hospitalisation with stroke through machine learning. Methods We developed the model (FIND-AF STROKE) in UK secondary care and death certificate-linked primary care health record data from individuals aged ≥30 years without known AF hospitalized with a stroke or transient ischaemic attack (Jan 2, 1998 to Feb 28, 2022), randomly divided into training (80%) and testing (20%) datasets. We evaluated logistic regression and random forest models for prediction of 2-year AF risk in the testing dataset with internal bootstrap validation, and compared against the CHA2DS2VASC score. Youden index was used to set a threshold for higher and lower risk. Results Of 35 530 UK individuals (mean age 72.1 (SD 12.7) years, 50.9% women), 1742 (4.8%) had developed incident AF at 2 years. Using feature importance a parsimonious version of the model was created requiring only age, sex, ethnicity (white versus other) and five comorbidities. In the testing dataset prediction performance for the random forest algorithm (area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) 0.710, 95% CI 0.685 – 0.736) was superior to the CHA2DS2VASC score (0.645, 95% CI 0.617-0.672) (Figure 1). The threshold for higher risk using the Youden index was 4.81% which resulted in a negative predictive value of 97.6%, sensitivity 0.712, specificity 0.583. Of the post-stroke patients 44% were labelled at higher risk of AF, who were older, had a higher prevalence of comorbidities, and a 3.3-fold higher incidence of AF post-stroke, than those identified as lower risk (Table 1). Conclusions The machine learning FIND-AF STROKE decision support tool can accurately identify individuals at risk of incident AF after stroke to enable a targeted and cost-effective approach to extended monitoring. Validation within cohorts that have undergone extended monitoring post-stroke will give a more accurate estimation of yield at different risk thresholds.Figure 1

A Dual Detection Head YOLO Model With Its Application in Wheat Ear Recognition

The spike number(SN) per unit area is an important indicator for measuring wheat yield. The use of AI to detect and count wheat ears is increasingly valued by researchers. In order to improve the accuracy of wheat ear recognition, the model is deployed on limited mobile devices to achieve accurate estimation of wheat yield. This paper proposes a lightweight hybrid design network Wheat-YoloNet based on improved YOLOv8 for wheat ear recognition. On the basis of the YOLOv8 network structure, we only retain small and large object detection heads, reducing the number of network parameters while ensuring detection performance. We added CBAM attention mechanism module to Backbone to improve the feature extraction performance of the model and introduce Wise-IoU to balance the samples. Compared with the YOLOv8n baseline model, the improved model has reduced parameter count by 33.3%, outperforming other comparison object detection algorithms, and can be deployed and run on devices with limited computing power.

Design and Use of a Stratum-Based Yield Predictions to Address Challenges Associated with Spatial Heterogeneity and Sample Clustering in Agricultural Fields Using Remote Sensing Data

Machine learning (ML) models trained with remote sensing data have the potential to improve cereal yield estimation across various geographic scales. However, the complexity and heterogeneity of agricultural landscapes present significant challenges to the robustness of ML-based field-level yield estimation over large areas. In our study, we propose decomposing the landscape complexity into homogeneous zones using existing landform, agroecological, and climate classification datasets, and subsequently applying stratum-based ML to estimate cereal yield. This approach was tested in a heterogeneous region in northern Morocco, where wheat is the dominant crop. We compared the results of the stratum-based ML with those applied to the entire study area. Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery were used as input variables to train three ML models: Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Multiple Linear Regression. The results showed that the XGBoost model outperformed the other assessed models. Furthermore, the stratum-based ML approach significantly improved the yield estimation accuracy, particularly when using landform classifications as homogeneous strata. For example, the accuracy of XGBoost model improved from R2 = 0.58 and RMSE = 840 kg ha−1 when the ML models were trained on data from the entire study area to R2 = 0.72 and RMSE = 809 kg ha−1 when trained in the plain area. These findings highlight that developing stratum-based ML models using landform classification as strata leads to more accurate predictions by allowing the models to better capture local environmental conditions and agricultural practices that affect crop growth.

Winter Wheat Yield Prediction Based on the ASTGNN Model Coupled with Multi-Source Data

Timely and accurate prediction of winter wheat yields, which is crucial for optimizing production management, maintaining supply–demand balance, and ensuring food security, depends on interactions among numerous factors, such as climate, surface characteristics, and soil quality. Despite the extensive application of deep learning models in this field, few studies have analyzed the effect of the large-scale geospatial characteristics of neighboring regions on crop yields. Therefore, we present an attention-based spatio-temporal Graph Neural Network (ASTGNN) model coupled with geospatial characteristics and multi-source data for improved accuracy of winter wheat yield estimation. The datasets used in this study included multiple types of remote sensing, meteorological, soil, crop yield, and planting area data for Anhui, China, from 2005 to 2020. The results showed that multi-source data led to higher prediction performance than single-source data, and enabled accurate prediction of winter wheat yields three months prior to harvest. Furthermore, the ASTGNN model provided better prediction performance than two traditional crop yield prediction models (R2 = 0.70, RMSE = 0.21 t/ha, MAE = 0.17 t/ha). Therefore, ASTGNN enhances the accuracy of crop yield prediction by incorporating geospatial characteristics. This research has implications for improving agricultural production management, promoting the development of digital agriculture, and addressing climate change in agriculture.

Feature diffusion reconstruction mechanism network for crop spike head detection.

Monitoring crop spike growth using low-altitude remote sensing images is essential for precision agriculture, as it enables accurate crop health assessment and yield estimation. Despite the advancements in deep learning-based visual recognition, existing crop spike detection methods struggle to balance computational efficiency with accuracy in complex multi-scale environments, particularly on resource-constrained low-altitude remote sensing platforms. To address this gap, we propose FDRMNet, a novel feature diffusion reconstruction mechanism network designed to accurately detect crop spikes in challenging scenarios. The core innovation of FDRMNet lies in its multi-scale feature focus reconstruction and lightweight parameter-sharing detection head, which can effectively improve the computational efficiency of the model while enhancing the model's ability to perceive spike shape and texture.FDRMNet introduces a Multi-Scale Feature Focus Reconstruction module that integrates feature information across different scales and employs various convolutional kernels to capture global context effectively. Additionally, an Attention-Enhanced Feature Fusion Module is developed to improve the interaction between different feature map positions, leveraging adaptive average pooling and convolution operations to enhance the model's focus on critical features. To ensure suitability for low-altitude platforms with limited computational resources, we incorporate a Lightweight Parameter Sharing Detection Head, which reduces the model's parameter count by sharing weights across convolutional layers. According to the evaluation experiments on the global wheat head detection dataset and diverse rice panicle detection dataset, FDRMNet outperforms other state-of-the-art methods with mAP@.5 of 94.23%, 75.13% and R 2 value of 0.969, 0.963 between predicted values and ground truth values. In addition, the model's frames per second and parameters in the two datasets are 227.27,288 and 6.8M, respectively, which maintains the top three position among all the compared algorithms. Extensive qualitative and quantitative experiments demonstrate that FDRMNet significantly outperforms existing methods in spike detection and counting tasks, achieving higher detection accuracy with lower computational complexity.The results underscore the model's superior practicality and generalization capability in real-world applications. This research contributes a highly efficient and computationally effective solution for crop spike detection, offering substantial benefits to precision agriculture practices.

Full-progress crop management and harvesting scheme with integrated space information: A case of jujube orchard

Space information integration can better obtain the environmental information, crop information, climate information and other key factors of the farmland, which is more helpful for crop management and harvesting. In the traditional crop management and harvesting process, crop management and harvesting are two relatively independent processes, lacking a complete full-process scheme. In this regard, this paper proposes a full-process crop management and harvesting scheme with integrated space information, which takes the space information of the crop planting area as the core, fully associates and closely integrates the crop management process and harvesting process, and carries out scientific field management, accurate yield estimation, and reasonable harvesting path planning for crops, to improve the intelligence and precision of the crop management and harvesting process. By using the jujube orchard as a case study, it was verified that the full-process crop management and harvesting scheme with integrated space information can improve the management level and economic benefits of the jujube orchard.

Mapping 10-m harvested area in the major winter wheat-producing regions of China from 2018 to 2022.

Winter wheat constitutes approximately 20% of China's total cereal production. However, calculations of total production based on multiplying the planted area by the yield have tended to produce overestimates. In this study, we generated sample points from existing winter wheat maps and obtained samples for different years using a temporal migration method. Random forest classifiers were then constructed using optimized features extracted from spectral and phenological characteristics and elevation information. Maps of the harvested and planted areas of winter wheat in Chinese eight provinces from 2018 to 2022 were then produced. The resulting maps of the harvested areas achieved an overall accuracy of 95.06% verified by the sample points, and the correlation coefficient between the CROPGRIDS dataset is about 0.77. The harvested area was found to be about 13% smaller than the planted area, which can primarily be attributed to meteorological hazards. This study represents the first attempt to map the winter wheat harvested area at 10-m resolution in China, and it should improve the accuracy of yield estimation.

Rice yield prediction through integration of biophysical parameters with SAR and optical remote sensing data using machine learning models

In an era marked by growing global population and climate variability, ensuring food security has become a paramount concern. Rice, being a staple crop for billions of people, requires accurate and timely yield prediction to ensure global food security. This study was undertaken across two rice crop seasons in the Udham Singh Nagar district of Uttarakhand state to predict rice yield at 45, 60 and 90 days after transplanting (DAT) through machine learning (ML) models, utilizing a combination of optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data in conjunction with crop biophysical parameters. Results revealed that the ML models were able to provide relatively accurate early yield estimates. For summer rice, eXtreme gradient boosting (XGB) was the best-performing model at all three stages (45, 60, and 90 DAT), while for kharif rice, the best-performing models at 45, 60, and 90 DAT were XGB, Neural network (NNET), and Cubist, respectively. The combined ranking of ML models showed that prediction accuracy improved as the prediction date approaches harvest, and the best prediction of yield was observed at 90 DAT for both summer and kharif rice. Overall rankings indicate that for summer rice, the top three models were XGB, NNET, and Support vector regression, while for kharif rice, these were Cubist, NNET, and Random Forest, respectively. The findings of this study offer valuable insights into the potential of the combined use of remote sensing and biophysical parameters using ML models, which enhances food security planning and resource management by enabling more informed decision-making by stakeholders such as farmers, policy planners as well as researchers.

Rice Yield Estimation Using Machine Learning and Feature Selection in Hilly and Mountainous Chongqing, China

To investigate effective techniques for estimating rice production in hilly and mountainous areas, in this study, we collected yield data at the field level, agro-meteorological data, and Sentinel-2/MSI remote sensing data in Chongqing, China, between 2020 and 2023. The integral values of vegetation indicators from the rice greening up to heading–filling stages were determined using the Newton–trapezoidal integration method. Using correlation analysis and importance analysis of permutation features, the effects of agro-meteorological variables and vegetation index integrals on rice yield were assessed. The chosen characteristics were then combined with three machine learning techniques—random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and partial least squares regression (PLSR)—to create six rice yield estimate models. The results showed that combined vegetation indices were more effective than indices used in separate development phases. Specifically, the correlation coefficients between the integral values of eight vegetation indices from rice greening up to heading–filling stages and rice yield were all above 0.65. By introducing agro-meteorological factors as new independent variables and combining them with vegetation indices as input parameters, the predictive capability of the model was evaluated. The results showed that the performance of PLSR remained stable, while the prediction accuracies of SVM and RF improved by 13% to 21.5%. After feature selection, the inversion performance of all three machine learning models improved, with the RF model coupled with variables selected during permutation feature importance analysis achieving the optimal inversion effect, which was characterized by a coefficient of determination of 0.85, a root mean square error of 529.1 kg/hm2, and a mean relative error of 5.63%. This study provides technical support for improving the accuracy of remote sensing-based crop yield estimation in hilly and mountainous regions, facilitating precise agricultural management and informing agrarian decision making.

UAV-based field watermelon detection and counting using YOLOv8s with image panorama stitching and overlap partitioning

Accurate watermelon yield estimation is crucial to the agricultural value chain, as it guides the allocation of agricultural resources as well as facilitates inventory and logistics planning. The conventional method of watermelon yield estimation relies heavily on manual labor, which is both time-consuming and labor-intensive. To address this, this work proposes an algorithmic pipeline that utilizes unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) videos for detection and counting of watermelons. This pipeline uses You Only Look Once version 8 s (YOLOv8s) with panorama stitching and overlap partitioning, which facilitates the overall number estimation of watermelons in field. The watermelon detection model, based on YOLOv8s and obtained using transfer learning, achieved a detection accuracy of 99.20 %, demonstrating its potential for application in yield estimation. The panorama stitching and overlap partitioning based detection and counting method uses panoramic images as input and effectively mitigates the duplications compared with the video tracking based detection and counting method. The counting accuracy reached over 96.61 %, proving a promising application for yield estimation. The high accuracy demonstrates the feasibility of applying this method for overall yield estimation in large watermelon fields.

A study on parameter calibration of a general crop growth model considering non-foliar green organs

Accurate crop yield estimation is essential for ensuring national food security and sustainable development. The crop growth model is one of the primary methods for estimating production and has been effectively applied in simulating crop growth and development, environmental factor effects and yield formation processes. However, many related studies have focused on Gramineae crops, such as wheat, rice and maize, while there has been little research on rape and soybean yield estimation. Non-foliar green organs such as rape siliques and soybean pods make vital contributions to plant photosynthesis and influence crop output. The parameter calibration method based on the leaf area index (LAI) cannot satisfy the existing demand for high-precision yield estimation for crops with active non-foliar green organs. Therefore, a new method for crop growth model calibration was proposed, which considers non-foliar green organs and plant photosynthetic succession processes and combines them with those of leaves to construct a photosynthetic area index (PAI). With wheat, rape and soybean as the research objects, their yields were simulated via the proposed crop growth model calibration method. The results showed that using the proposed calibration method to calibrate World Food Study (WOFOST) model parameters on the basis of the PAI improved the yield estimation accuracy over that of the crop model calibration method based on the LAI. The determination coefficient (R2) of the total dry weight of storage organs (TWSO) simulation value increased from 0.73 (using the LAI) to more than 0.90 (using the PAI). The R2 values of TWSO at the rape calibration and verification points were 0.910 and 0.922, respectively, and the R2 values of TWSO at the soybean calibration and verification points were 0.741 and 0.926, respectively. The above results verified the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed calibration method. Consequently, the application of the crop model calibration method proposed in this paper is important for accurately estimating the crop yield of plants with active non-foliar green organs, promoting the expansion of general crop models for different types of crops and achieving high-precision crop yield estimations.

Improved Winter Wheat Yield Estimation by Combining Remote Sensing Data, Machine Learning, and Phenological Metrics

Accurate yield prediction is essential for global food security and effective agricultural management. Traditional empirical statistical models and crop models face significant limitations, including high computational demands and dependency on high-resolution soil and daily weather data, that restrict their scalability across different temporal and spatial scales. Moreover, the lack of sufficient observational data further hinders the broad application of these methods. In this study, building on the SCYM method, we propose an integrated framework that combines crop models and machine learning techniques to optimize crop yield modeling methods and the selection of vegetation indices. We evaluated three commonly used vegetation indices and three widely applied ML techniques. Additionally, we assessed the impact of combining meteorological and phenological variables on yield estimation accuracy. The results indicated that the green chlorophyll vegetation index (GCVI) outperformed the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) in linear models, achieving an R2 of 0.31 and an RMSE of 396 kg/ha. Non-linear ML methods, particularly LightGBM, demonstrated superior performance, with an R2 of 0.42 and RMSE of 365 kg/ha for GCVI. The combination of GCVI with meteorological and phenological data provided the best results, with an R2 of 0.60 and an RMSE of 295 kg/ha. Our proposed framework significantly enhances the accuracy and efficiency of winter wheat yield estimation, supporting more effective agricultural management and policymaking.

A Hybrid Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique and Deep Neural Network Framework for Improving Rice Yield Estimation in an Open Environment

Quick and accurate prediction of crop yields is beneficial for guiding crop field management and genetic breeding. This paper utilizes the fast and non-destructive advantages of an unmanned aerial vehicle equipped with a multispectral camera to acquire spatial characteristics of rice and conducts research on yield estimation in an open environment. The study proposes a yield estimation framework that hybrids synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) and deep neural network (DNN). Firstly, the framework used the Pearson correlation coefficient to select 10 key vegetation indices and determine the optimal feature combination. Secondly, it created a dataset for data augmentation through SMOTE, addressing the challenge of long data collection cycles and small sample sizes caused by long growth cycles. Then, based on this dataset, a yield estimation model was trained using DNN and compared with partial least squares regression (PLSR), support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). The experimental results indicate that the hybrid framework proposed in this study performs the best (R2 = 0.810, RMSE = 0.69 t/ha), significantly improving the accuracy of yield estimation compared to other methods, with an R2 improvement of at least 0.191. It demonstrates that the framework proposed in this study can be used for rice yield estimation. Additionally, it provides a new approach for future yield estimation with small sample sizes for other crops or for predicting numerical crop indicators.

Comparative assessment of FSM and MPSIAC models in quantifying soil sedimentation rates in the semi-humid and alpine regions of northern Iran.

Soil erosion and sediment yield is a global problem that increasingly contributes to soil degradation. Although erosion analysis requires the availability of erosion and sedimentation data, the lack of sediment monitoring stations and the resulting limitations in collecting sediment measurements have necessitated the use of experimental models in many areas. The present study aimed to compare Factorial Scoring Model (FSM) and Modified Pacific South-West Inter-Agency Committee (MPSIAC) model for estimating erosion in the Mazdaran Basin (Firoozkuh, Iran). For this purpose, the required maps were prepared for both models, and the sediment rate was estimated using the two models to compare their efficiency using the corresponding maximum error (ME) and coefficient of determination (R2) values. The results showed that considering sediment based on the FSM model, the studied catchment consisted of regions with a high and very high sediment yield, while the MPSIAC model identified regions with low, medium, and high sediment yield. With an R2 value of 0.62 and an ME value of 2.24, the MPSIAC model provided more accurate estimates of the sediment yield in the studied area. Using the MPSIAC model, sediment yield was 6687.86 tons per year or the equivalent of 2.64 tons/ha per year.

Spatial and Spectral Dependencies of Maize Yield Estimation Using Remote Sensing.

Corn (Zea mays L.) is the most abundant food/feed crop, making accurate yield estimation a critical data point for monitoring global food production. Sensors with varying spatial/spectral configurations have been used to develop corn yield models from intra-field (0.1 m ground sample distance (GSD)) to regional scales (>250 m GSD). Understanding the spatial and spectral dependencies of these models is imperative to result interpretation, scaling, and deploying models. We leveraged high spatial resolution hyperspectral data collected with an unmanned aerial system mounted sensor (272 spectral bands from 0.4-1 μm at 0.063 m GSD) to estimate silage yield. We subjected our imagery to three band selection algorithms to quantitatively assess spectral reflectance features applicability to yield estimation. We then derived 11 spectral configurations, which were spatially resampled to multiple GSDs, and applied to a support vector regression (SVR) yield estimation model. Results indicate that accuracy degrades above 4 m GSD across all configurations, and a seven-band multispectral sensor which samples the red edge and multiple near-infrared bands resulted in higher accuracy in 90% of regression trials. These results bode well for our quest toward a definitive sensor definition for global corn yield modeling, with only temporal dependencies requiring additional investigation.

Improving crop yield estimation by unified model parameters and state variable with Bayesian inference

Data assimilation techniques integrating crop growth models and remote sensing technologies offer a feasible approach for large-scale crop yield estimation. Previous research has primarily focused on either recalibrate the uncertain model parameters or updating model state variables independently using remotely sensed observations. In this study, we developed a two-step inference algorithm that couples the parameter inference and the state update, to solve the joint posterior distribution of uncertain parameters and state variables given the remote sensing observations. An Observing Simulation System (OSS) experiment was first performed based on the WOFOST crop model to validate the effectiveness of the parameter inference method. The results indicate that, the parameter inference method successfully improved the estimation of different types of model parameters and enhanced yield estimation. Furthermore, leaf area index (LAI) retrieved from Sentinel-2 was assimilated into the WOFOST model to simulate winter wheat yield at the plot scale in the northeastern part of Henan Province. The results demonstrated that the proposed two-step inference algorithm can more effectively correct model simulation biases and improve winter wheat yield estimation accuracy (R²=0.58, MAPE=12.75 %, and RMSE=1112 kg·ha⁻¹), outperforming the standard EnKF algorithm (R²=0.51, MAPE=14.62 %, RMSE=1328 kg·ha⁻¹). Overall, attributed to its unified approach to estimating both model parameters and state variables, the proposed two-step inference algorithm shows promising application prospects for data assimilation-based crop yield estimation.

Limitations and solutions for developing a grain yield and protein content forecasting model based on vegetation indices in organic wheat production – on-farm experimentation

ABSTRACT Multispectral imaging has gained increased attention in recent years for monitoring and predicting crop-related characteristics. Vegetation indices can provide valuable insight into crop health and growth, especially in conventional agriculture and small-sized experimental plots. However, the effectiveness of such methods in non-conventional agricultural systems still needs to be clarified. This study was the first to test three vegetation indices (NDVI, GNDVI, NDRE) for grain yield and protein content prediction in organic farming under real-life farm management practices. Using two small-plot and one on-farm organic wheat variety trial sites, unmanned aerial vehicle-based remote sensing data was compared with physical sampling results in 2 years to assess the potential of agricultural remote sensing to predict yield and protein content on small- and medium-sized plots of organic winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). The correlations between vegetation indices and crop traits were stronger in small- than in medium-sized plots (r max = 0.85 and 0.75, respectively, for grain yield), probably due to increased heterogeneity of the larger plots, due to differences in weed cover, soil nutrient supply, etc., and it was strongly affected by the time of measurement. Linear equation for yield and protein content prediction was not sufficiently precise; the machine learning algorithms improved the accuracy of yield estimation. Both methods considered NDRE with a higher weight than NDVI when modelling grain yield and protein content based on the vegetation index values, which suggested that NDRE was more suitable for prediction. Small-plot-based predictions over-estimated grain yield and under-estimated grain protein content in medium-sized plots.

A novel transformer-based neural network under model interpretability for improving wheat yield estimation using remotely sensed multi-variables

Timely and accurate yield prediction before wheat harvest is of great significance for food policy formulation and national economic development. Deep learning method gains importance on crop yield estimation and growth monitoring with the rapid development of deep learning models combined with remotely sensed data. However, the problems of nonlinear parameter optimization and long-term dependence in time series data have restricted the improvement of yield estimation accuracy. Transformer model completely abandons the traditional deep learning architecture and is gradually applied to time series tasks due to the advantage in modeling long-term dependence. This study introduced a novel transformer-based deep learning framework to estimate winter wheat yield in the Guanzhong Plain utilizing remotely sensed multi-variables, namely leaf area index (LAI), fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) and vegetation temperature condition index (VTCI). The proposed model, called SSA-LSTM-transformer (SLTF), was developed for dealing with above problems under the automatic optimization capability of the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) and the long-term memory advantage of the long short-term memory (LSTM) structure. The findings demonstrated that the SLTF model achieved better estimation accuracy at the county level (R2 = 0.72, RMSE = 488.68 kg/ha) compared with the single transformer model (R2 = 0.61, RMSE = 573.99 kg/ha). The analysis on SLTF model’s performance at sampling sites over different disasters suggested that the model can effectively learn the effects of diseases, lodge and pests on crop yield estimation, which had good generalization ability at all sampling sites (R2 = 0.45, RMSE = 738.63 kg/ha). The Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) approach was employed to evaluate the relative importance of remotely sensed multi-variables to yield and to understand how each input variable influences the estimated yield for global interpretability and local interpretability of the SLTF model. It was found that FPAR played the largest roles in yield estimation with the highest importance value, and FPAR and LAI from late April to late May and VTCI from late March to mid-April were regarded as important features for the estimated yield with high importance value. In conclusion, our findings indicated the potential of SLTF model for winter wheat yield estimation, which contributes to promoting further application of remotely sensed technology for agricultural production.

Plot-level satellite imagery can substitute for UAVs in assessing maize phenotypes across multistate field trials.

Abstract Accurate genotype-specific early yield estimates at fields and plots offer potential benefits to farmers in optimizing their agronomic practices, breeders in screening thousands of varieties, and policymakers in decision-making contributing to the improvement of agriculture and food production systems. Effective approaches to track plant growth and predict yield require large datasets of remote sensing and ground truth data collected across multiple environments. Low-altitude drone flights are increasingly being used to collect data from field evaluations of new crop varieties, while satellite imagery is being explored to track yield and management practices at the regional scales. Despite their lower spatial resolution, satellite platforms exhibit logistical and technical advantages in scalability and accessibility, and could facilitate plot-level predictions, especially with steadily improving spatial resolution. However, genotype-specific, plot-level, high-resolution satellite images from multiple environments with ground truth measurements are not yet publicly available. Here we generated, described, and evaluated over 20,000 plot-level images of over 80 hybrid maize varieties grown across the US corn belt under various management practices collected from (near simultaneous) satellite and drone flights integrated with ground truth yield measurement. Of the six baseline models examined, models employing data collected from satellite images often matched or exceeded the performance of models employing drone images for both within and cross-environment yield prediction. Large, multi-environment, genetically diverse datasets such as those generated in this study, along with more complex models could help unlock the power of satellite imagery as an important addition to the tool of farmers, plant geneticists, breeders, and policymakers.

Method for Monitoring Wheat Growth Status and Estimating Yield Based on UAV Multispectral Remote Sensing

An efficient and accurate estimation of wheat growth and yield is important for wheat assessment and field management. To improve the accuracy and stability of wheat growth and yield estimation, an estimation method based on a genetic algorithm-improved support vector regression (GA-SVR) algorithm was proposed in this study. The correlation analysis between vegetation indices calculated from spectral data and wheat growth phenotypes and yields was performed to obtain the optimal combination of vegetation indices with high correlation and good estimation performance. At the same time, the optimal model for wheat growth monitoring was screened and constructed in experiments with 12 wheat varieties and 3 gradient nitrogen fertilizer application levels. Then, the yield estimation model was established and its applicability was verified under different nitrogen fertilizer application levels. The results showed that the constructed models for the leaf area index, plant height, and yield estimation performed well, with coefficients of determination of 0.82, 0.71, and 0.70, and root mean square errors of 0.09, 2.7, and 68.5, respectively. This study provided an effective UAV remote sensing technique for monitoring wheat growth status and estimating yield. This study provides an effective unmanned aerial remote sensing technique for monitoring wheat growth and estimating yield, and provides technical support for wheat yield assessment and field management.