Accuracy Of Traffic Prediction Research Articles

Traffic Flow Prediction Using Novel Spatial-Temporal Multi-Head Attention Graph Convolution Networks

For urban development, accurate traffic flow prediction is crucial. Traffic flow prediction data can be used for optimizing public transportation systems, reducing congestion, planning road networks, and improving overall city infrastructure management. Despite numerous spatiotemporal methods used to forecast traffic flow, information aggregation at each site neither produce optimal results, because of the use non-Euclidean distance data. For more accurate results of traffic flow prediction, we propose a spatial-temporal multi-head attention graph convolution network (STMAGCN). It extracts temporal features using temporal convolutional layers and enriches nodes with spatial attention and multi-head attention mechanisms. By combining them, we can extract space characteristics more effectively. We also introduce a novel graph structure construction method that employs graph-based transformations to convert non-connected data points into a comprehensive graph structure, facilitating the effective application of our STMAGCN. This approach improves the predictive efficiency and accuracy of our model by ensuring seamless integration of disparate data sources. Experimental results indicate that the preferential extraction of spatiotemporal data significantly enhances traffic flow prediction accuracy. Compared with the latest models, our performance on the California Department of Transportation Performance Measurement System (PeMS) PeMS04 and PeMS08 datasets shows a slight improvement, with an average increase of 16.8%. Additionally, the average improvement in time is approximately 445.95%.

Hybrid Machine Learning Approaches for 5G Traffic Prediction

ABSTRACT Accurate traffic prediction poses great difficulties because of the continuously increasing scale and diversity of 5G network traffic, which is driven by user demands. Moreover, certain characteristics of 5G traffic are constantly changing; thus, simulations using traditional models often lead to incorrect estimations or inefficient utilization of available resources. Consequently, we propose a hybrid machine learning model that integrates support vector machine (SVM) and decision tree algorithms to enhance efficiency of 5G traffic prediction. The structure of the hybrid model dynamically adjusts by adding or removing hidden layers and units within the network to improve prediction performance. The efficacy of the proposed model is evaluated using metrics like mean squared error, mean absolute error, and root mean squared error (RMSE). Findings show that the hybrid model consistently achieves lower error rates than SVM alone. Further performance enhancement of the hybrid model in predicting 5G traffic is also supported by comparisons of R-squared values against signal-to-noise ratios. These outcomes show the potential of the proposed method to improve traffic prediction accuracy in 5G networks, serving as a powerful tool for network control.

Traffic speed prediction of regional complex road network based on CapsNet and D-BiLSTM

Accurate and efficient short-term traffic prediction is of great significance in the study of regional traffic network. However, the complex and dynamic spatiotemporal correlation of traffic patterns makes the existing methods insufficient in learning traffic evolution in terms of structural depth and prediction scale. Therefore, this paper proposes a deep learning model combining capsule network (CapsNet) and deep bidirectional LSTM (D-BiLSTM). CapsNet is used to identify the spatial topological structure of the road network and extract spatial features, and D-BiLSTM network is integrated. The forward and backward dependencies of traffic states are considered at the same time, and the bidirectional temporal correlation of different historical periods is captured to predict the traffic of large-scale complex road networks in the target area. Experiments on real traffic network speed datasets show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed model is improved by more than 10% on average , which is better than other methods. It has high prediction accuracy and good robustness in traffic prediction of regional complex road networks.

Clustering Urban Roads Using Local Binary Patterns to Enhance the Accuracy of Traffic Flow Prediction

Many studies employ a dynamic statistical approach to model the relationship between roads for predicting traffic flow. Statistical relationships among roads pertain to the associations between road segments in nearby areas. Roads with similar traffic patterns usually define the relationship. Previous studies have shown that adjacent roads demonstrated a similar traffic pattern on the same day and time interval. Studying similar patterns between roads in surrounding areas provides information about the traffic state among roads in a cluster. Furthermore, the results of this finding may be considered to increase the performance of prediction of traffic conditions. In general, road segment roads are correlated with other road segments. They are connected upstream, downstream, or both; they are connected upstream, downstream, or both. To address this, we propose a Local Binary Pattern (LBP) to explore road connections by clustering congestion features between the target roads and their neighboring roads. The outcomes show that the roads with high connectivity obtained from the clustering process were utilized to predict traffic conditions using the SVM approach. The David-Bouldin Index of LBP with k-means shows the lowest compared with PCA k-means and k-means only. By evaluating the clustering result using the Davies-Bouldin Index and assessing the prediction results with SVM, we discovered that incorporating LBP with K-Means improved outcomes in identifying highly connected roads using K-Means.

Short-term Traffic Flow Prediction Based on KELM Optimized By Improved Slime Mould Algorithm

Traffic flow prediction plays a crucial role in improving transportation efficiency and enhancing Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). However, the temporal, spatial, and nonlinear nature of traffic flow data presents challenges for accurate short-term prediction. We propose a short-term traffic flow prediction model based on Kernel Extreme Learning Machine (KELM) optimized by the improved Slime Mould Algorithm (SMA). KELM is an improved version of Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) that incorporates kernel functions for improved generalization and stability. SMA is a meta-heuristic algorithm inspired by the behavior of slime mould in foraging, known for its strong global searching ability. For better performance, three strategies are introduced: the Good Point Set method for optimizing the initial population, the combination of Opposition Based Learning (OBL) and Differential Evolution (DE) to improve the slime mould generation mechanism, and the use of adaptive t distribution mutation to enhance convergence speed. After comparing the performance of these improved SMAs on twelve test functions, the ISMA improved by integrating three strategies as mentioned above is best. Then the ISMA is applied to search for the optimal parameters of KELM model. Finally, the optimized KELM with optimal parameters is applied to predict the short-term traffic flow on given traffic data set. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, KELM optimized by ISMA namely ISMA-KELM, outperforms existing models such as Random Forest (RF), Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), KELM optimized by Tuna Swarm Optimization Algorithm (TSO-KELM), and KELM optimized by SMA (SMA-KELM) in terms of traffic flow prediction accuracy. The proposed model ISMA-KELM provides a promising approach for addressing the challenges of traffic flow prediction, offering improved accuracy and efficiency in real-time traffic management systems.

Exploring the Relationship between Data Sample Size and Traffic Flow Prediction Accuracy

Efficiently extracting and analyzing large urban traffic data, accurately predicting traffic conditions, and improving urban traffic management require careful selection of an appropriate data sample size. The suitable size of data sample assumes paramount importance in fostering sustainable transportation development. This paper investigates the relationship between traffic flow prediction performance and data sample size, considering data sample missing rates, duration, and road segment coverage. Real traffic flow data from 13 road sections in Changsha, China, are analyzed using the Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, Gaussian Process Regression and Artificial Neural Network models. Some key findings include: Lower data sample loss rates improve prediction accuracy by capturing traffic flow patterns effectively, while higher loss rates decrease accuracy; an optimal data sample duration of around 7 days balances prediction accuracy and data stability, with longer durations providing more historical data but risking complexity; Broader road segment coverage gives a more comprehensive traffic flow information, but excessive coverage introduces noise and impacts the improvement of prediction accuracy. The results highlight the significant impact of data sample size on prediction performance. Enhancing reliability can be achieved by reducing data loss, selecting suitable durations, and considering appropriate road segment coverage, supporting improved traffic management and route planning.

Enhancing Road Traffic Prediction Using Data Preprocessing Optimization

Traffic prediction is essential for transportation planning, resource allocation, congestion management and enhancing travel experiences. This study optimizes data preprocessing techniques to improve machine learning-based traffic prediction models. Data preprocessing is critical in preparing the data for machine learning models. This study proposes an approach that optimizes data preprocessing techniques, focusing on flow-based analysis and optimization, to enhance traffic prediction models. The proposed approach explores fixed and variable orders of data preprocessing using a genetic algorithm across five diverse datasets. Evaluation metrics such as root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and R-squared error assess model performance. The results indicate that the genetic algorithm’s variable order achieves the best performance for the ArcGIS Hub and Frementon Bridge Cycle datasets, fixed order one preprocessing for the Traffic Prediction dataset and variable order using the genetic algorithm for the PeMS08 dataset. Fixed order 2 preprocessing yields the best performance for the XI AN Traffic dataset. These findings highlight the importance of selecting the appropriate data preprocessing flow order for each dataset, improving traffic prediction accuracy and reliability. The proposed approach advances traffic prediction methodologies, enabling more precise and reliable traffic forecasts for transportation planning and management applications.

Fuzzy logic-based routing and wavelength assignment with traffic prediction for optical network-on-chip

In Optical Network-on-Chip (ONoC), both routing and wavelength assignment (RWA) have an impact on the Optical Signal-to-Noise Ratio (OSNR), which further influence the power efficiency and scalability. In the state-of-the-art, the consideration of routing is separate with the wavelength assignment, which could not reach a holistic optimization. Also, there is a need of trade-off among multidimensional performance factors in the design of RWA. In this article, we propose a Multidimensional Integrated Predictive RWA (named as MIP-RWA), based on the Fuzzy Logic System (FLS). The MIP-RWA considers routing and wavelength assignment holistically, taking into consideration of multidimensional performance factors at the same time. The predictive scheme is proposed to work with RWA and further reduce the delay in RWA. The evaluation shows that the proposed MIP-RWA can obtain better trade-off of the performance factors. The traffic prediction accuracy of the Fuzzy Neural Network (FNN) improves by 5.29%, 4.79%, and 6.2% respectively under the uniform, transpose, and hotspot traffic, compared with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based. Thanks to the traffic predictive scheme, the proposed MIP-RWA reduces the end-to-end delay (ete delay) by 17.77%, 17.39%, and 16.66% respectively under uniform, transpose, and hotspot traffic, compared with the methods without predictive scheme. Also, compared with current RWA methods, the proposed MIP-RWA improves 11.21 dB in OSNR and 21.47% in delay in average.

Internet of things and optimized knn based intelligent transportation system for traffic flow prediction in smart cities

The rapid expansion of urban areas and the increasing number of vehicles on the road have resulted in accidents, traffic congestion, economic repercussions, environmental deterioration, and excessive fuel consumption. A dependable traffic management system is necessary to anticipate and regulate urban traffic patterns. Traffic forecast aids in the prevention of traffic issues. Urban traffic predictions often utilise historical and current traffic flow data to forecast road conditions. This article presents a traffic flow prediction system that utilises the Internet of Things (IoT), machine learning, and feature selection. Internet of Things (IoT) devices located on highways or within cars gather sensor data in real-time. The input data set comprises both real-time Internet of Things (IoT) data and historical traffic statistics. The input data is stored in a centralized cloud. The data is subjected to preprocessing in order to eliminate any unwanted interference and identify any exceptional values. The accuracy and root mean square error are contingent upon the process of feature selection. Particle swarm optimization identifies and extracts crucial features from input data. The classification model is constructed using K Nearest Neighbor, Multi layer Perceptron, and Bayes network approaches. The UCI traffic data is used for conducting experiments. The dataset has 47 attributes and 2102 occurrences. The accuracy of traffic flow prediction using PSO KNN is 96 %. The PSO KNN algorithm achieved a Mean Square Error (MSE) of 0.00289 and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.0595.

A traffic-weather generative adversarial network for traffic flow prediction for road networks under bad weather

Traffic flow prediction is pivotal in providing reliable information for intelligent traffic systems. Unexpected events, such as bad weather, unavoidably impact the precision of traffic flow prediction. Therefore, to achieve accurate traffic flow prediction results in road networks under bad weather, a novel Traffic-Weather Generative Adversarial Network (TWeather-GAN model) is developed. This model comprises a Generator and a Discriminator. The Generator incorporates both the traffic and weather modules to extract the spatiotemporal patterns hidden in traffic flow and weather data. In the traffic and weather modules, the gated convolutional layer, Encoder-Decoder architecture, and attention mechanism are established. In the Discriminator, the gated convolutional layer and bidirectional long short-term memory neural network are introduced. Traffic flow data under fog, strong wind, and heavy rain are selected to test the seven baseline models and the proposed model, and the ablation experiments are conducted to analyze the mechanism of the proposed model. The experiments demonstrate that the TWeather-GAN model outperforms the baseline models under bad weather, and makes the prediction error have an average reduction of 0.20%–34.81%, 3.21%–35.22%, and 9.46%–39.10%, respectively, under one-step prediction, three-step prediction, and six-step prediction. Furthermore, establishing the gated convolutional layer and the weather module enhances the accuracy of traffic flow prediction under bad weather. Results show that traffic flow fluctuations and distributions differ under fog and strong wind, and heavy rain affects the trend of traffic flow over one day.

Fuzzy Learning-Based Electric Measurement Data Circulation Monitoring and Security Risk Anomaly Evaluation

With the circulation of massive electric measurement data, data anomaly caused by security attacks imposes security risks on reliable operation of smart grid. Long short-term memory (LSTM) based data circulation monitoring and security risk anomaly evaluation has been intensively studied. However, some issues remain unsolved, including learning overfitting and large prediction error. In this paper, we investigate fuzzy learning to infer the abnormal level of security risk. In particular, an adaptive grey wolf optimization-LSTM-fuzzy petri network (AGWO-LSTM-FPN) based electrical measurement data circulation monitoring and security risk anomaly evaluation algorithm is proposed. Specifically, AGWO is utilized to optimize LSTM parameter updating and improve traffic prediction accuracy. Furthermore, FPN is combined with multi-dimensional monitoring indicators to enhance anomaly level evaluation. Simulation results illustrate the excellent performance of AGWO-LSTM-FPN.

Decomposition with feature attention and graph convolution network for traffic forecasting

Traffic forecasting is a crucial task for enhancing the quality and efficiency of intelligent transportation systems. In recent years, several neural networks have been proposed to tackle this challenge. However, traffic data itself has complex composition and intertwined temporal patterns. Currently, the absence of effective methods to capture the inherent properties and overall profile of traffic data has become a bottleneck in improving the traffic prediction capabilities of models. To address these issues, we introduce a novel model, Decomposition with Feature Attention and Graph Convolution Network (DFAGCN), for Traffic Forecasting. To highlight the inherent properties of complicated traffic data, we present a unique Decomposition with Feature Attention (DFA) method to decompose the traffic data into seasonality, trend, and remainder. On the one hand, we introduce a new method to filter out noise and possible outliers from time series data. On the other hand, we employ an attention mechanism to make our decomposition method adaptively extract the trend. Subsequently, we utilize spatial–temporal attention to simulate the dynamic spatial–temporal correlations of traffic data. Finally, we use spatial–temporal convolution to extract local dependencies of traffic data. Experiments conducted on four real-world traffic forecasting datasets demonstrate that DFAGCN achieves state-of-the-art performance. The results show that the application of time series decomposition to traffic data significantly enhances the accuracy of traffic prediction.

A Dual-Stream Cross AGFormer-GPT Network for Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Large-Scale Road Sensor Data.

Traffic flow prediction can provide important reference data for managers to maintain traffic order, and can also be based on personal travel plans for optimal route selection. On account of the development of sensors and data collection technology, large-scale road network historical data can be effectively used, but their high non-linearity makes it meaningful to establish effective prediction models. In this regard, this paper proposes a dual-stream cross AGFormer-GPT network with prompt engineering for traffic flow prediction, which integrates traffic occupancy and speed as two prompts into traffic flow in the form of cross-attention, and uniquely mines spatial correlation and temporal correlation information through the dual-stream cross structure, effectively combining the advantages of the adaptive graph neural network and large language model to improve prediction accuracy. The experimental results on two PeMS road network data sets have verified that the model has improved by about 1.2% in traffic prediction accuracy under different road networks.

Road Network Traffic Flow Prediction Method Based on Graph Attention Networks

With the acceleration of urbanization and the continuous growth of transportation demand, the traffic management of smart city road networks has become increasingly complex and critical. Traffic flow prediction, as an important component of smart transportation systems, is of great significance for optimizing traffic planning and improving traffic efficiency. The study collected and preprocessed traffic data in the smart city road network, including multi-dimensional information such as traffic flow, road conditions, and meteorological data. Then, based on the idea of graph neural networks, we constructed the topological structure of the urban road network and abstracted elements such as roads and intersections into nodes, using edges to represent their connection relationships, thus forming a graph dataset. Next, we introduced an attention mechanism to extract more representative node features through the weighted aggregation of node features, thereby achieving effective modeling of urban road network traffic flow. During the model training phase, we used real traffic datasets for experimental verification and integrated various information such as time, space, and road features into the model. The experimental results show that compared to traditional methods, this research prediction method has achieved better performance in traffic flow prediction tasks, with higher prediction accuracy and robustness. It has stronger applicability and effectiveness in different traffic scenarios. By integrating multi-dimensional information and introducing attention mechanisms, this method has significant advantages in improving the accuracy and robustness of traffic flow prediction, and has important practical significance and application prospects for the construction of smart transportation systems and the development of smart cities.

A new soft clustering method for traffic prediction in bike-sharing systems

For the efficient management of bike-sharing systems (BSSs), accurate demand predictions are crucial to address the uneven distribution of bikes at various stations. Recent studies have explored a hierarchical prediction framework using cluster-level models to more accurately estimate demand at the station level. However, in frameworks based on hard clustering, where each station is exclusively assigned to one of several clusters, prediction accuracy tends to be lower for stations at the cluster boundaries. To improve accuracy for such stations, this study proposes a novel soft clustering algorithm for BSSs. The key idea is to allow stations to belong to multiple clusters, calculating the membership degree for each station based on transitions between stations and clusters obtained through hard clustering. This study also investigated the impact of restricting clusters to which individual stations belong based on distance or usage history. Two approaches, distance- and usage-based, were employed to determine the clusters to which each station belongs. Experimental results using Seoul Bike data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in enhancing traffic prediction accuracy within the hierarchical prediction framework. Notably, excluding clusters with minimal usage for each station using the usage-based approach yielded the best performance.

Short-Term Air Traffic Flow Prediction Based on CEEMD-LSTM of Bayesian Optimization and Differential Processing

With the rapid development of China’s civil aviation, the flow of air traffic in terminal areas is also increasing. Short-term air traffic flow prediction is of great significance for the accurate implementation of air traffic flow management. To enhance the accuracy of short-term air traffic flow prediction, this paper proposes a short-term air traffic flow prediction model based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and long short-term memory (LSTM) of the Bayesian optimization algorithm and data differential processing. Initially, the model performs CEEMD on the short-term air traffic flow series. Subsequently, to improve prediction accuracy, the data differencing is employed to stabilize the time series. Finally, the smoothed sequences are, respectively, input into the LSTM network model optimized by the Bayesian optimization algorithm for prediction. After data reconstruction, the final short-term flow prediction result is obtained. The model proposed in this paper is verified by using the data from Shanghai Pudong International Airport. The results show that the evaluation indexes of the prediction accuracy and fitting degree of the model, RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), MAE (Mean Absolute Error), and R2 (Coefficient of Determination), are 0.336, 0.239, and 97.535%, respectively. Compared to other classical time-series prediction models, the prediction accuracy is greatly improved, which can provide a useful reference for short-term air traffic flow prediction.

Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network with Transformer and Whale Optimization Algorithm for Traffic Flow Prediction

Accurate traffic flow prediction plays a crucial role in the development of intelligent traffic management. Despite numerous investigations into spatio-temporal methods, achieving high accuracy in traffic flow prediction remains challenging. This challenge arises from the complex dynamic spatio-temporal correlations within the traffic road network and the limitations imposed by the selection of hyperparameters based on experiments and manual experience, which can affect the performance of the network architecture. This paper introduces a novel transformer-based adaptive graph convolutional recurrent network. The proposed network automatically infers the interdependencies among different traffic sequences and incorporates the capability to capture global spatio-temporal correlations. This enables the dynamic capture of long-range temporal correlations. Furthermore, the whale optimization algorithm is employed to efficiently design an optimal network structure that aligns with the requirements of the traffic domain and maximizes the utilization of limited computational resources. This design approach significantly enhances the model’s performance and improves the accuracy of traffic flow prediction. The experimental results on four real datasets demonstrate the efficacy of our approach. In PEMS03, it improves MAE by 2.6% and RMSE by 1.4%. In PEMS04, improvements are 1.6% in MAE and 1.4% in RMSE, with a similar MAPE score to the best baseline. For PEMS07, our approach shows a 4.1% improvement in MAE and 2.2% in RMSE. On PEMS08, it surpasses the current best baseline with a 3.4% improvement in MAE and 1.6% in RMSE. These results confirm the good performance of our model in traffic flow prediction across multiple datasets.

Local spatial and temporal relation discovery model based on attention mechanism for traffic forecasting

Recognizing the evolution pattern of traffic condition and making accurate prediction play a vital role in intelligent transportation systems (ITS). With the massive increase of available traffic data, deep learning-based models have attracted considerable attention for their impressive performance in traffic forecasting. However, the majority of existing approaches neglect to model of asynchronously dynamic spatio-temporal correlation and fail to consider the impact of historical traffic data on future condition. Additionally, the attribute of deep learning method presents challenges in interpreting the explicit spatiotemporal relationships. In order to enhance the accuracy of traffic prediction as well as extract comprehensive and explainable spatial–temporal relevance in traffic networks, we propose a novel attention-based local spatial and temporal relation discovery (ALSTRD) model. Our model firstly implements feature representation learning to effectively express latent input traffic information. Then, a local attention mechanism structure is established to model asynchronous dependencies of historical input data. Finally, another attention network and the Pearson Correlation Coefficient method are introduced to extract the elaborate influence of the historical traffic condition of neighboring roads on the future condition of the target road. The experiment results on several datasets demonstrate that our model achieves significant improvements in prediction accuracy compared to other baseline methods, which can be attributed to its ability to extract the fine-grained correlation among historical traffic data and capture the dynamic association between past and future data. In addition, the incorporation of attention mechanism and Pearson Correlation Coefficient promotes the model’s ability to elucidate spatiotemporal correlations among traffic data, thereby providing a more robust explanation.

Adaptive switching and routing protocol design and optimization in internet of things based on probabilistic models

Through smart cities, Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), the agricultural sector, and wearable devices, the Internet of Things (IoT) has revolutionized several human interests. Through the development of new cluster tasks, the Decision-Making System (DMS) of Cluster Heads (CHs), and improving the accuracy of traffic prediction and reliability of transportation, the present study intends to improve the energy depletion of IoT devices. The paper explores the subject of data flow optimization using Fuzzy Assisted Cuckoo Search Optimization (FACSO), traffic flow using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and CH prediction using the Stochastic Optimization Algorithm (SOA). Optimizing network lifetime while minimizing Energy Consumption (EC) is feasible through the practical application of the SOA, GPR, and FACSO models. Increasing End-to-End Delay (EED), Network Throughput (NT), and energy efficiency can be rendered feasible through a real-time DMS regarding routing employing a novel approach referred to as FACSO. This approach has enhanced the efficacy and reliability of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN). With up to 500 nodes and an EC of 0.3451 J, the experiment's findings demonstrate that a proposed SOA-FACSO model achieves superior EED.

Black-box optimization for anticipated baseband-function placement in 5G networks

In the context of the ever-evolving 5G landscape, where network management and control are paramount, a new Radio Access Network (RAN) as emerged. This innovative RAN offers a revolutionary approach by enabling the flexible distribution of baseband functions across various nodes, all tailored to meet the ever-shifting demands of both system requirements and user traffic patterns. As users move within the network, the need to anticipate and strategically position these baseband functions becomes crucial for seamless network operation. Traditionally, this challenge has been tackled through a two-step process: first, forecasting traffic patterns, and then optimizing resource allocation accordingly. However, this approach falls short in guaranteeing an efficient placement when actual traffic demands surge onto the network. It often leads to resource overbooking, constraint violations, and excessive power consumption, putting strain on the network’s capabilities. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework based on a black-box optimization approach. This tool empowers prediction algorithms not just with historical traffic data but also with insights from optimization outcomes. The goal is to minimize a loss function related to power consumption and constraint violation: this ensures a predicted placement that is feasible and whose power is close to optimal. This approach ensures that the predicted placement is both feasible and power-efficient, bridging the gap between theoretical prediction and practical implementation. Remarkably, our proposed method, while potentially sacrificing some degree of traffic prediction accuracy, outperforms the conventional two-step approach by delivering a more efficient baseband function placement.