Accounting-based Valuation Models Research Articles

Valuation and Returns on Stock Return Volatility

ABSTRACT This paper provides an accounting-based valuation model that predicts that cross-sectional variation in firm-level returns to investments in both stock and stock return volatility are related to cross-sectional variation in firm-level fundamentals. The model predicts that expected stock returns have a positive quadratic relation with stock return variance and a negative quadratic relation with gains to trading in stock return variance. Consistent with these predictions, firms with high model-implied expected stock returns have high future stock return variance, and the relation is roughly quadratic. In contrast, firms with high expected stock returns have low future returns to trading in stock return variance through option contracts because these firms have high option-implied variance relative to future realized variance, i.e., low variance risk premia (VRP). The study provides a framework for using fundamentals for trading in individual stocks and options. JEL Classifications: G12; G14; G17.

Sticky behavior of R&D Costs and Its Relevance to Firm Value: Evidence from Listed Companies in Korea

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of sticky behavior in R&D costs on firm value. The study aims to gain insights into whether the stickiness of R&D costs is a rational choice based on managerial foresight or if it stems from managerial self-interest. Design/methodology/approach: For the regression analysis, a modified version of Ohlson's accounting-based valuation model (1995) was used to assess the impact of R&D costs on firm value. and the stickiness of R&D costs was measured using the model proposed by Homburg & Nasev (2009). International Financial Reporting Standards were adopted in Korea in 2011, and empirical analysis was subsequently conducted using data from listed companies. Findings: The empirical results were as follows. Firstly, R&D costs reported as expenses showed a negative (-) correlation with firm value, while the stickiness of R&D costs was found to have a positive (+) impact on the value relevance of earnings. Secondly, R&D costs reported as assets did not have a significant impact on firm value, and the stickiness of R&D costs did not have a significant impact on the value relevance of net assets. Research limitations/implications: Overall, the findings of this study support the accounting treatment of R&D costs as expenses. Moreover, the study reveals that the sticky behavior of R&D costs helps alleviate the negative value relevance of R&D expenses. Originality/value: This study distinguished between capitalized R&D costs and expensed R&D costs, and examined their value relevance by investigating the impact of sticky behavior on earnings and net assets.

Human Capital resource as cost or investment: A market-based analysis

This study empirically investigates the myopic behavior of the stock market toward firms’ human capital resource investment, paying particular attention to two key proxies: human resource expenditure and the firm value added allocated to the employees. Focusing on human capital resource investment decisions’ alignment with near versus longer-term emphasis by investors, we examine firms listed in the Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) 100 over a five-year period using an established accounting-based valuation model. Our results show that human capital investment discourse leads to overweighting of the forecasted longer-term earnings in the apportionment of share price constituents, suggesting that investors consider investment in employees to generate more return in the longer-term. Additionally, our findings prove that investors respond to firm level human capital resource as an investment generating more return in the longer-term. This emphasises the importance of communicating human capital resource investment information that accurately reflects the firm value creation via employees in external financial reporting.

Expected Return, Firm Fundamentals, and Aggregate Systemic Risk: An Analysis for the Brazilian Market using an Accounting-Based Valuation Model

Purpose – This paper examines the ability of Lyle, Callen, and Elliott's (2013) valuation accounting model in estimating expected returns (cost of capital) in the Brazilian capital market. Design/methodology/approach – To test the model's ability to generate expected returns (cost of capital), as well as to predict prices, Fama-Macbeth's (1973) monthly cross-sectional regressions were used. Sensitivity to different risk factors, particularly to the whole (systematic) economy risk, was also tested to forecast returns using a two-stage approach. Findings – The results showed that even under different conditions, the accounting model evaluated has unsatisfactory performance with emerging country data, during the analysis period. Moreover, the sensitivity of return to the risk factors employed was not a determinant for the forecasts. However, the findings showed consistency for price forecasting, and the evidence was consistent with the work applied in the American market. Originality/value – For the Brazilian case, the model failed to capture the dynamics of asset returns, showing that the capital market under analysis has its own characteristics and requires a methodology that considers this.

The Implied Cost of Capital: Accounting for Growth

This paper provides a review and critique of research that estimates an Implied Cost of Capital (ICC) by reverse engineering accounting-based valuation models. The focus is on the estimated growth rate inserted into those models. The paper makes two points. First, the growth rate is determined by the accounting for other inputs in the calculation, namely book value and near-term earnings forecasts. Thus an accounting consistency condition must be satisfied. Second, the accounting principles for these inputs imply that the consequent growth rate informs about risk and this must be recognized in an ICC calculation that also conveys risk. Empirical tests indicate that ICC calculations fail to incorporate this information.

Performance relevance of environmental and social disclosures

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to establish the relationship between environmental‒social disclosure scores and corporate financial performance. The authors tried to investigate the relevance of assurance practice (whether or not companies’ assessment policies are subject to individual assessment for the given period) and value relevance in foreign-owned firms.Design/methodology/approachThis research is based on accounting-based valuation model proposed by Berthelot et al. (2003), considering the market value of equity as the function of book value and other financial indicators including Return of Assets and Return on Capital Employed. Environmental and social disclosure scores are extracted from Bloomberg database as the measure of company’s transparency in reporting value relevance information and sustainable development. The study considers the sample period of 8 years (2008‒15) and uses static (fixed effects and random effects) and dynamic (generalised methods of moments (GMM)) panel data estimations for analysing and concluding results.FindingsThe results support the evidence of environmental disclosure score as performance relevance indicator. Environmental disclosure score highlights the positive and significant relationship with different performance indicators. The interaction between foreign ownership and environmental disclosure represents a negative association, implying that foreign ownership is incubating more on profit making rather than environmental protection initiatives. However, in the context of the social disclosure score, a positive association with economic performance is found. But interaction term between foreign ownership and social disclosure represented a negative coefficient.Originality/valueValue relevance disclosures are investigated with performance indicators that create an incentive for stakeholders. Also, the effect of foreign ownership and value relevance interaction term on firm’s financial performance is determined. To the best of authors’ understanding, previous literature is silent about this dimension. The authors also tried to incorporate the solution to the endogeneity issue by using GMM.

Accounting based valuation: a simultaneous equations model for forecasting earnings to proxy for ‘other information’

This paper develops and tests a simultaneous equations model (SEM) for extending accounting based valuation models used in empirical studies. Rather than using analysts’ forecasts, we derive forecasts of operating income from the SEM to calculate the ‘other information’ variable in the Ohlson (Contemp Account Res 11:661–687, 1995) model. The SEM forecasts are based on observable data contained in the firms’ reporting, like order backlog, and other publicly available information. The SEM produces more accurate out-of-sample forecasts of operating income compared to simple benchmark models particularly in years around economic changes and instability, like the years 2001 and 2009. Integrating the SEM forecast as ‘other information’ in market value regressions significantly increases the explanatory power compared to simpler versions without or with single information proxies for ‘other information’. Finally, we find that the SEM forecast is able to explain a major portion of the information advantage of analysts relevant for explaining market values.

Accounting Based Valuation: A Simultaneous Equations Model for Forecasting Earnings to Proxy for Other Informationn

This paper develops and tests a simultaneous equations model (SEM) for extending accounting based valuation models used in empirical studies. To calculate the ‘other information’ variable in the Ohlson (1995) model, we derive forecasts of operating income from the SEM, rather than using analysts’ forecasts. The SEM forecasts are based on observable data contained in the firms’ reporting, like order backlog, and other publicly available information. The SEM produces more accurate out-of-sample forecasts of operating income compared to simple benchmark models particularly in years around economic changes and instability, like the years 2001 and 2009. Integrating the SEM forecast as ‘other information’ in market value regressions significantly increases the explanatory power compared to simpler versions with or without single information proxies for ‘other information’. The SEM forecast is able to explain a major portion of the information advantage of analysts relevant for explaining market values.

A Comparative Analysis of Accounting-Based Valuation Models

We empirically compare the reliability of the dividend (DIV) model, the residual income valuation (CT, GLS) model, and the abnormal earnings growth (OJ) model. We find that valuation estimates from the OJ model are generally more reliable than those from the other three models, because the residual income valuation model anchored by book value gets off to a poor start when compared with the OJ model led by capitalized next-year earnings. We adopt a 34-year sample covering from 1985 to 2013 to compare the reliability of valuation estimates via their means of absolute pricing errors ( MAPE) and corresponding t statistics. We further use the switching regression of Barrios and Blanco to show that the average probability of OJ valuation estimates is greater in explaining stock prices than the DIV, CT, and GLS models. In addition, our finding that the OJ model yields more reliable estimates is robust to analysts-based and model-based earnings measures.

The value relevance of “assured” environmental disclosure

PurposeThis paper aims to provide insight into how environmental information is reflected in the market value of listed Italian companies. In particular, it investigates the value relevance of voluntary environmental information disclosed by companies and the influence of environmental policies assurance.Design/methodology/approachThe method used is the accounting-based valuation model used by Cormier and Magnan (2007), analogue to the one developed by Ohlson (1995), which considers market value of equity as a function of book value, accounting earnings and environmental indicators as provided by Bloomberg. The analysis in this paper is based on the environmental disclosure score (i.e. proxy of a company’s transparency in reporting environmental information) and the assurance practice (i.e. whether or not the company’s environmental policies were subject to an independent assessment for the reporting period).FindingsResults partially support initial conjectures, i.e. the environmental voluntary disclosure represents value-relevant information positively correlated with firms’ market value. Furthermore, when such information is subject to an independent assessment for the reporting period, an incremental benefit deriving from the assurance of such information cannot be found. This is similar to the findings of Choet al.(2014), i.e. the market perceptions on assurance may need to be developed before the environmental report assurance market in Italy can develop.Research limitations/implicationsLimitations are related to the small sample located in a single country, meaning that results may not be generalisable. The implications are that other methods may provide further value, but these may need to be based either on different data or larger samples (i.e. cross-country analysis).Originality/valueThe increasing importance of environmental issues for economic decision-making and the presence of ethical investors create incentives for environmental information disclosure, which is becoming increasingly significant for comprehensive firm valuation. However, for this information to serve its role, disclosure must be credible. Hence, there are many companies that resort to voluntary assurance of environmental policies, motivated by a need to demonstrate credibility with external stakeholders. Notwithstanding, the influence of verification practice over environmental disclosure on a low regulation country has not yet been completely explored. This paper aims to fill this gap.

Valuation: Accounting for Risk and the Expected Return

Under accounting principles, the recognition of earnings is path dependent and the path depends on risk resolution: Under the so-called realization principle, earnings are not booked until uncertainty is resolved. In asset pricing terms, the principle means that earnings cannot be recognized until the firm can book a low-beta asset such as cash or a near-cash discounted receivable. If the risk to which this accounting responds is priced risk, the accounting indicates the expected return. This paper connects accounting under this principle to risk and return, summarizes the supporting empirical evidence, and examines the implications for research on the implied cost of capital, cash-flow betas, asset pricing models that imbed accounting numbers, and papers that assume an autoregressive model for the earnings path to infer the expected return. The accounting that captures risk and its resolution also has implications for the unsolved issue of specifying the appropriate accounting for accounting-based valuation models and, indeed, for financial accounting standards.

Accounting Data, Market Values, and the Cross Section of Expected Returns Worldwide

Under fairly general assumptions, expected stock returns are a linear combination of two accounting fundamentals ― book to market and ROE. Empirical estimates based on this relation predict the cross section of out-of-sample returns in 26 of 29 international equity markets, with a highly significant average slope coefficient of 1.05. In sharp contrast, standard factor-model-based proxies fail to exhibit predictive power internationally. We show analytically and empirically that the importance of ROE in forecasting returns depends on the quality of accounting information. Overall, a tractable accounting-based valuation model provides a unifying framework for obtaining reliable proxies of expected returns worldwide.

The value relevance of firms’ anti-bribery and corruption efforts the Italian evidence

In this paper, we utilized a sample of Italian companies to explore the influence of firms’ Anti-Bribery and Corruption efforts on firm value. On a sample of 47 Italian listed companies followed by Asset4 (Thomson Reuters business collecting corporate social responsibility data) during period 2002 to 2013, we investigate the relevance of information related to firms’ Anti-Bribery and Corruption efforts in explaining stock price through the accounting-based valuation model developed by Ohlson (1995). Results corroborate empirical evidence of a positive correlation between efforts made by firms in avoiding bribery and corruption during operations (i.e., whether a company describes, claims to have or mentions processes in place to avoid Bribery and Corruption practices at all its operations) and stock price.

Evaluating the effectiveness of model specifications and estimation approaches for empirical accounting-based valuation models

This study considers the effectiveness of different model specifications and estimation approaches for empirical accounting-based valuation models in the UK. Primarily, we are interested in the accounting determinants of market value and, in particular, whether accounting-based valuation models can be estimated that not only have in-sample explanatory power but also potentially can be used as a tool of financial statement analysis in developing useful estimates of value out-of-sample. This requires models to be estimated on one sample, and tested for effectiveness on a different sample. Then, issues of model specification arise, together with choosing between methods of estimating the empirical models, in identifying the effectiveness of each combination. Using the criteria of bias and accuracy to capture effectiveness, we suggest estimation methods and models that, overall, provide the most effective models in this context.

A fractional cointegration approach to testing the Ohlson accounting based valuation model

We examine the long-run relationship between market value, book value, and residual income in the Ohlson (Contemp Acc Res 11(2):661–687, 1995) model. In particular, we test if market value is cointegrated with book value and residual income in light of their non-stationary behaviors. We find that cointegration applies to only 51 % of the sample firms, casting doubt that book value and residual income alone are adequate in tracking variations in market value, yet we find that market value is fractional cointegrated with book value and residual income for 89 % of the sample firms. This implies that the long-run relationship follows a slow but mean-reverting process. Our results therefore support the Ohlson model.

Omitted Variables and Tests of Dividend Displacement

Theory suggests that, under certain assumptions, corporate distributions should reduce market value on a one-to-one basis. This result is sometimes known as dividend displacement. Nonetheless, dividend displacement tends to be rejected by empirical tests for total dividends and regular dividends, but not for share buybacks, in the UK. This is associated with regular dividends having a stronger relationship with future earnings than share buybacks (that is, more information content). We study a conjecture in the literature that the omission of lagged accounting variables in accounting-based market value models is the cause of the rejection of dividend displacement for regular or total dividends. Our results suggest that this is not so, although lagged accounting variables are value relevant. When various controls for omitted variables in models used in prior literature are employed, it is in only one case that the results of prior studies are overturned. This case is when lagged market value is added into the estimated equation. Theoretically, within a general study of controlling for omitted variables in accounting-based market valuation models, we argue that including lagged market value as an independent variable cannot control for the omission of lagged accounting variables, or other omitted variables, without producing additional model mis-specification problems which, in turn, introduces bias into statistical tests. Qualitative analysis of the various empirical results suggests that the results concerning dividend displacement when lagged market value is included in the model are induced by coefficient bias. As a consequence, we conclude that the results in previous literature are robust to the inclusion of lagged accounting variables, and the evidence against these results when lagged market value is included in the model is unreliable.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Model Specifications and Estimation Approaches for Empirical Accounting-Based Valuation Models

This study considers the effectiveness of different model specifications and estimation approaches for empirical accounting-based valuation models in the UK. Primarily, we are interested in the accounting determinants of market value and, in particular, whether accounting-based valuation models can be estimated that not only have in-sample explanatory power but also potentially can be used as a tool of financial statement analysis in developing useful estimates of value out-of-sample. This requires models to be estimated on one sample, and tested for effectiveness on a different sample. Then, issues of model specification arise, together with choosing between methods of estimating the empirical models, in identifying the effectiveness of each combination. Using the criteria of bias and accuracy to capture effectiveness, we suggest estimation methods and models that, overall, provide the most effective models.

Discussion of “Using earnings forecasts to simultaneously estimate firm-specific cost of equity and long-term growth”

Accounting-based valuation models allow us to develop rigorous estimates of either value or the expected rate of return on equity capital (i.e., ERR) without making steady-state forecasts that rely on ad hoc assumptions about dividend policy. Hence, these models have great potential. Their ultimate usefulness, however, depends on the extent to which users of them make assumptions about future residual income that are consistent with the underlying accounting. Nekrasov and Ogneva contribute by developing a methodology that allows us to integrate information about accounting attributes such as conservatism into our estimates of the growth rate in residual income. Hence, their methodology can be used to improve our understanding of the role that conservatism plays in determining growth. This, in turn, improves our ability to estimate key parameters such as value and the expected rate of return on equity capital.

A comparison of properties of earnings, book value, and residual income for financial reporting under IAS and IFRS

We examine and compare the valuation properties of earnings and book value of equity under international accounting standards (IAS) during 2000–2002 with those under international financial reporting standards (IFRS) during 2003–2004 (the voluntary period) and 2005–2006 (the mandatory period). Accordingly, we conduct our investigation using a sample of German and Swiss companies reporting under IAS during 2000–2002 and IFRS during 2003–2004 and 2005–2006 by assessing the relative performance of three accounting-based valuation models. We find that the RI model dominates in all three time periods under study for both countries. Our findings are supported by robustness tests. Our study suggests that the recent changes in international accounting standards do not change the valuation properties of Swiss and German IAS/IFRS accounting variables. However, we document a decrease in the explanatory power of the accounting-based valuation models from the IAS period to the IFRS periods.

An accounting-based valuation approach to valuing corporate governance in Taiwan

We estimate the proportion of firm value that is related to governance mechanisms in a cointegrated system based on the Feltham and Ohlson (1995) accounting-based valuation model. Using a comprehensive set of 32 governance measures in five categories for Taiwan firms, we find that governance measures related to ownership structure and the divergence between cash flow rights and control rights capture variations in stock prices over time. Controlling for book value, net operating assets, and abnormal operating earnings which account for up to 59% of firms’ equity value over time, the governance measures in addition track at least 39% of the equity value of these firms. We further identify that the shareholdings of board directors and supervisors, shareholdings of the controlling family, the critical control level of a firm, and the voting rights of the largest shareholder for ultimate control are sufficient governance measures to track changes in firm value. Our results shed some light on the extent of the equity value that can be generated by a firm’s governance practices and the types of corporate governance mechanisms that are especially important for firms with similar ownership structure and controls.