Account Fluctuations Research Articles

SYSTEMATIC AND SYNERGETIC APPROACH IN THE FORMATION OF MARKETING STRATEGIES FOR THE INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF ENTERPRISES ON THE BIOENERGY MARKET

Purpose. The purpose of the article is the formation of a holistic methodical approach to the development of marketing strategies for the innovative development of agricultural sector enterprises on the bioenergy market. Methodology of research. Research methods were used by the author include a systematic approach to understanding the content and structure of the bioenergy market and the role of its individual participants; methods of induction and generalization for the implementation of a synergistic approach to the formation of marketing strategies for innovative development. Findings. The article proves that one of the important methods of researching agricultural sector enterprises in the bioenergy market and choosing development strategies is the system-synergistic approach. A research methodology for the bioenergy market and its subjects has been developed. It has been proven that the formation of the bioenergy market today is impossible without a scientific justification for the selection of priority directions for the development of enterprises in the agrarian sector, taking into account external disturbances and fluctuations during the determination of strategies, goals and objectives. It has been established that in such cases it is necessary to use marketing research of the bioenergy market, the results of which will be the basis for developing a marketing strategy. The sequence of development of the marketing strategy of innovative development, taking into account the synergistic methodology, is proposed. Methodological and recommendation blocks are singled out in the article, which make it possible to formulate proposals for improving marketing strategies for the innovative development of enterprises in the bioenergy market. Originality. Methodological principles of the study of the bioenergy market based on the application of a system-synergistic approach are summarized. The method of researching the development of the bioenergy market, the stages of forming a marketing strategy for the innovative development of agricultural sector enterprises in the specified market is proposed. Practical value. The presented results can be used by scientists and practitioners in the process of analysing the state and directions of innovative development of agricultural sector enterprises in the bioenergy market, which determines the practical value of this scientific article. Key words: systemic approach, synergistic approach, bioenergy market, marketing strategy, innovative development.

A panel VAR analysis of macro-financial imbalances in the EU

We investigate the interactions across current account misalignments, real effective exchange rate misalignments and financial gaps within EU countries, applying a Bayesian panel Vector Autoregression to 27 EU members over the period 1994–2012. We find that, for the euro area, the reaction of current account misalignments to a shock in the real effective exchange rate misalignments is the largest. In non-euro area countries and euro periphery an increase in current account misalignments leads to a temporary increase in the real effective exchange rate misalignments, lowering competitiveness and thus amplifying current account fluctuations. For the core, increase in the rate or an expansion of the financial gap may help rebalancing the current account. In the central eastern european members, an increase in the real effective exchange rate misalignments may bring larger current account deficits in the medium-long run. Different policies should be applied to different countries in order to reach a balanced current account and to move close to the equilibrium level of the real effective exchange rate, given real and financial fluctuations. The different directions of transmissions are crucial for defining the right path towards equilibrium and they should be taken into account.

ОСОБЕННОСТИ РАСПРЕДЕЛЕНИЯ СОБЫТИЙ ПО МНОЖЕСТВЕННОСТИ ВТОРИЧНЫХ ЧАСТИЦ В ЗАВИСИМОСТИ ОТ ЭНЕРГИИ СТОЛКНОВЕНИЯ И АССИМЕТРИЧНОСТИ СТАЛКИВАЮЩИХСЯ РЕЛЯТИВИСТСКИХ ЯДЕР

To search for signals of the phase transition of matter from the hadronic state to the quark­gluon plasma, interactions with extreme characteristics are studied. The study of the dependence of the av­erage multiplicity on the projectile energy for sulfur and silicon nuclei with energies of 3.7 AGeV, 14 AGeV, and 200 AGeV has been carried out. Experimental data on inelastic interactions with the nuclei of the NIKFI BR­2 emulsion obtained at the SPS at CERN and at the Synchrophasotron at JINR. To take into account fluctuations in the initial conditions of the nucleus­nucleus interaction, the events were divided into central and peripheral ones. A comparative analysis of the average multiplicity with heavy and light nuclei of the photographic emulsion is presented. The multiplicity increase factor has an almost linear increase in energy (on the logarithmic axis) for all events, except for the central interactions of sulfur nuclei with heavy emulsion nuclei at 200 AGeV. These events are explosive events, which give a flux of secondary particles in a narrow range of average pseudo­rapidity and significantly shifted towards low values <η>. The analysis of events of complete destruction of the projectile nucleus is presented. Such events are considered as events in which the most favorable conditions are created for the formation of a quark­gluon plasma.

Simple analytical theory for micelles with widespread radial distribution of charged heads

Modeling aggregation of ionic micelles in solution is an important task that has been attracting attention for years. The molecular-thermodynamic micellization models describe the electrostatic interactions within the Poisson-Boltzmann theory that does not take into account fluctuations of the surfactant heads in the micelle. In this work we apply the statistical field theory to spherical micelles where the charged heads of surfactant molecules undergo fluctuations in the diffuse coronae. From this theory, a simple equation is derived for the electrostatic contribution to the standard free energy of aggregation. The results from the new theory are compared with the numerical results and analytical approximations of the Poisson-Boltzmann theory for the spheres of varying charge and curvature in the ranges relevant to micelles and over a broad interval of solution salinity. The new electrostatic free energy term is employed in the classical molecular-thermodynamic model to describe spherical micelles in the aqueous solution of ionic surfactant with added salt. We introduce an empirical correction that takes into account the effect of fluctuations on the hydrophobic part of the aggregation free energy. Modeling aggregation equilibrium for the spherical SDS micelles in the aqueous solution of salt, we illustrate the performance of the new theory. We compare our results with the structural MD-data and experimental hydrodynamic radii to show that our model with the fluctuating surfactant heads can reflect a realistic picture of the micellar structure and gives reasonable size-estimates for the spherical ionic micelles if proper charge distributions are considered.

Synthesis of an optimal digital filter of a compensation radiometer for radiometric correlation-extreme navigation systems of unmanned aerial vehicles

The expediency of using a compensation radiometer (CR) with periodic absolute calibration as a sensor for preprocessing the information of correlation-extreme navigation systems (CENS) of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) was shown. This is determined by the possibility of obtaining and using the estimates of gain fluctuations obtained in previous frames which will provide an increase in the radiometer sensitivity. In addition, due to the accumulation of information, an increase in accuracy of measurement of the elements of the current image formed by the CENS will be provided. The algorithm of processing the obtained calibration estimates during linear processing corresponds to a certain digital filter (DF). By defining a set of the DF weight coefficients, it is possible to improve the CR fluctuation sensitivity by reducing the gain fluctuations. Up to 1.8-time gain in sensitivity can be reached for typical frequency and time parameters of the compensation radiometer of UAV CENS. The problem of synthesis of a digital filter was set. A solution to the problem of synthesizing an optimal digital filter was proposed. Its use in a CR will improve the fluctuation sensitivity. In its turn, this will make it possible to improve the quality of a current image generated by the system when siting by means of sighting surfaces with low-contrast objects taking into account fluctuations in radio-brightness temperature. It was found that the gain in sensitivity when using the optimal digital filter increases with an increase in the operating period of the radiometer and an increase in the digital filter order. Improvement of fluctuation sensitivity of the CENS data preprocessing system is important for UAV location in low-contrast areas

Development of an optimization method for measuring the Doppler frequency of a packet taking into account the fluctuations of the initial phases of its radio pulses

The necessity of estimating the decrease in the accuracy of measuring the informative parameters of a radar signal in real conditions of its propagation and reflection has been substantiated. The results of the estimation determine the requirements for optimizing this measurement to achieve the required efficiency. A numerical analysis of the decrease in the accuracy of measuring the Doppler frequency of a coherent packet is presented, depending on the statistical characteristics of fluctuations of the initial phases of its radio pulses. Expressions are given for calculating the fluctuation component of the measurement error of radio pulse packet frequency for various coefficients of interpulse correlation of phase fluctuations. An assessment is made of the possibility of increasing the accuracy of Doppler frequency measurement, which can be ensured by statistical optimization of the algorithm for time-frequency processing of a given radar signal by taking into account its phase fluctuations. The conditions for the multiplicative influence of phase fluctuations of radio pulses of the received packet are substantiated, which determine the efficiency of optimization of Doppler frequency measurement. Based on the results of the study, an optimization method for measuring the Doppler frequency of the packet taking into account fluctuations in the initial phases of its radio pulses is proposed. The accuracy of Doppler frequency measurement under the influence of both the internal noise of the radar receiver and the correlated phase fluctuations of its radio pulses is estimated. The efficiency of optimization of measuring the Doppler frequency of the packet is estimated taking into account fluctuations of the initial phases of its radio pulses by means of computer simulation. It is proved that, under the influence of phase fluctuations, the accuracy of Doppler frequency measurement can be increased due to the performed optimization from 1.86 to 6.29 times. This opens the way to improving the existing algorithms for measuring the higher time range derivatives to improve the quality of tracking complex maneuvering aerodynamic objects. This explains the importance and usefulness of the work for the radar theory.

Математическая модель измерительного комплекса для определения внешних параметров вибраторных активных фазированных антенных решеток в ближней зоне.

When measuring characteristics of the modern multi-element active phased antenna arrays amplifications method may have problems processing the results of measurements, due to the complexity of the exact adjustment of the overall active phased array, the fluctuations of the parameters of microwave amplifiers, the failure of individual elements, the inadmissibility of the full radiation of aperture antennas in an anechoic chamber. Electrodynamic modeling of active phased array antennas in specialized programs usually requires very large computational costs and it is very difficult to take into account fluctuations in parameters and failures of active phased array elements. In this regard, a mathematical model of the measuring complex is proposed for estimating the field distribution in the near zone of vibratory antenna arrays and generating radiation patterns. The estimation methodology is based on direct measurements of the amplitude-phase distribution of the field of the antenna system on the selected surface in the immediate vicinity of its aperture using a sounding antenna. The main relations for the model are the well-known expressions for calculating the field distribution in the near zone of a vertical symmetrical vibrator, the method of induced electromotive force, and matrix relations for converting the field into various coordinate systems. The model of the measuring complex is used to evaluate the characteristics of the active phased array in the near and far zones. However, it can be used to check real experimental data, taking into account fluctuations in the parameters of the amplitude-phase distribution in the aperture, and failures of antenna elements. The conducted research has shown a good agreement between the calculated characteristics of the active phased array using the proposed model and the aperture method. The time for calculating the antenna directivity characteristics in the proposed model is 30 minutes. The main time is associated with the addition of resistance matrices with elements related to each new position of the probe antenna. However, this time is not comparable to the time required to implement the measurement model in specialized electrodynamic modeling packages.

Heat flux in turbulent Rayleigh-Bénard convection: Predictions derived from a boundary layer theory

Using recently developed boundary-layer equations for turbulent Rayleigh-B\'enard convection that take into account fluctuations and buoyancy, we derive analytical results for heat flux scaling dependencies in low- and high-Prandtl-number limits. Our theoretical results are supported by direct numerical simulation data, and further reveal a surprising close resemblance of the heat flux scaling dependencies in turbulent Rayleigh-B\'enard and steady forced convection. This finding resolves the paradox of the apparent applicability of the scaling results in steady forced convection even though the boundary layer theory in that case is not applicable to turbulent Rayleigh-B\'enard convection.

Credit Cycles, Fiscal Policy, and Global Imbalances

We study the role that changes in credit and fiscal positions play in explaining current account fluctuations. Empirically, the current account declines when credit increases, and when the fiscal balance declines. We use a two-country model with financial frictions and fiscal policy to study these facts. We estimate the model using annual data for the U.S. and “a rest of the world” aggregate that includes main advanced economies. We find that about 30 percent of U.S. current account balance fluctuations are due to domestic credit shocks, while fiscal shocks explain about 14 percent. We evaluate simple macroprudential policy rules and show that they help reduce global imbalances. By taming the financial cycle, macroprudential rules that react to domestic credit conditions or to domestic house prices would have led to a smaller and less volatile U.S. current account deficit. We also show that a countercylical fiscal policy rule that stabilizes output growth reduces the level and volatility of the U.S. current account deficit.

Simulation of the electric drive of the shearer to assess the energy efficiency indicators of the power supply system

This paper considers the problem of electric drive of shearers simulation to assess the indicators of power supply system (PSS) energy efficiency in the context of the introduction of modern devices for controlling the flow of electricity and power. The block diagram of the shearer electric drive simulation model is presented. To take into account fluctuations in the level of consumption of active and reactive power, a model of the executive body of the shearer was used in the work, including a model of the moment of resistance on the auger when cutting. As a result, in the MATLAB Simulink environment, a simulation model of the electric drive of the UKD300 shearer was developed, suitable for assessing the energy efficiency of the electrical complex of mining areas and the feasibility of using modern devices for controlling the flow of electricity and power. As a result of the simulation, it was found that a significant irregularity in the graph of reactive power consumption, caused by repeated short-term operation, makes the use of capacitor units ineffective to compensate for reactive power.

Simulation modeling in assessing the agricultural enterprise state in an emergency

The article proposes a methodology for assessing the sufficiency of financial resources in an emergency. The purpose of the study is to develop a methodology based on the method of simulation modeling to assess the sufficiency of resources and the sustainability of an agricultural enterprise in the event of an emergency. This set of methods for assessing the availability of enterprise financial resources for overcoming emergencies was implemented using algorithms for simulation of enterprise financial flows and their assessment in the program for investment calculations Project Expert 7.19. The program allows you to build simulation models of an enterprise, regardless of their industry and specificity. With the help of this software complex, it is possible not only to build a simulation model of an enterprise, but also to carry out its statistical evaluation. Together with the proposed method of detailing the initial data of annual financial and economic documents, this set of methods is a powerful tool for building and evaluating simulation models of agricultural and other enterprises, taking into account fluctuations in cash flow values during the year. Thus, the accuracy of the estimates obtained is significantly increased in comparison with methods based on the analysis of relative indicators or coefficients.

Improved management of water resources in process industry by accounting for fluctuations of water content in feed streams and products

In this paper, a general strategy is presented for optimizing water resources in industrial activities taking into account fluctuations of water flow-streams and water contents in feed and products as well as in the utility system. Indeed, considering fluctuations can be of primary importance for several water intensive industries such as the food or the paper&pulp industry. Furthermore, whenever the water balance includes the water content of products (as is typically the case for the food industry) fluctuations in the composition of products can considerably affect the overall balance due to water being a major component of many foods. Therefore, the currently used optimization strategies that disregard water fluctuations, can lead to a severe bias in the water balance and thus overlook the potential of water recovery and reuse.Including this aspect in widely used algorithms for process monitoring (data reconciliation) and optimization might lead to a possibly prohibitive increase in the computational burden. In particular, it is shown in this paper that the resulting optimization algorithm should solve a dynamic non-convex stochastic Mixed Integer Nonlinear Programming problem.To tackle this (typically NP-hard) problem, a strategy has been developed that combines ordinal optimization for dealing with statistical information and nonlinear, non-convex deterministic algorithms.The outlined strategy has been applied to a complex process in the food industry (production of starch and starch-based products). The results seem to confirm the general validity of the algorithm developed.

Tan's contact as an indicator of completeness and self-consistency of a theory

It is well known that, Tan's contact could be calculated by using any of following three methods: by the asymptotic behavior of momentum distribution; by Tan's adiabatic sweep theorem; or by the operator product expansion as an expectation value of the interaction term. We argue that, if a theory describing Bose (or Fermi) system with the only contact interaction is self consistent, then it should lead to the same result in all three cases. As an example we considered MFT based approaches and established that among existing approximations of MFT, the Hartree - Fock - Bogoliubov (HFB) approach is the most self consistent. Actually, HFB is able to describe existing experimental data on Tan's contact for dilute Bose gas, but fails to predict its expected behavior at large gas parameter $(\gamma > 0.015)$. So, for appropriate description of properties of a Bose gas even at zero temperature, this approximation needs to be expanded by taking into account fluctuations in higher order then the second one.

THE IMPACT OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT ON THE NATIONAL ECONOMY’S KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS (CASE OF UKRAINE)

The paper empirically explores the impact of external public debt in Ukraine on key macroeconomic indicators such as real GDP growth, real effective exchange rate, and current account balance. The problem of increasing external debt affects not only the problems of balance of payments fluctuations but also economic security and economic growth. We have tested the hypotheses regarding the impact of Ukraine’s external public debt on these indicators in the short and long run. As an empirical tool for hypotheses testing vector autoregression models (VaR models) have been chosen. The results of constructed models show the acceleration of the external public debt growth provokes the GDP growth rate to fall with subsequent macrostabilization. The reaction of the GDP growth rate to the shock of the real effective exchange rate is more noticeable. The shock of real effective exchange rate has led to increase in external public debt with a further dampening to zero.Empirical data from the VaR model confirm that external debt has a negative impact on GDP and essentially behaves similarly to the shock of REER strengthening. Research results confirm the relationship between external public debt, real effective exchange rate, and GDP growth in Ukraine. Based on the models it was analyzed the external public debt and real effective exchange rate shocks influence the real gross domestic product growth rate. The growth of external public debt leads to the GDP growth rate fall by 1% during a year and a half with subsequent stabilization in the future. GDP growth fluctuations are explained mainly by their own fluctuations while external public debt is accounting for 2,5—8% of its fluctuations. Fluctuations in external public debt of 7—10% are explained by current account fluctuations in Ukraine. The described results of the model correspond to the concept of dependent economy.

Transient flow of evaporating fluid in multiple parallel pipes, theory and experiments

The model of Barnea et al. [1] for an evaporating liquid flow in a system of parallel heated pipes with common inlet and outlet headers was modified, taking into account fluctuations in the flow rates during the transient process. The experimental system of two horizontal parallel mini channels presented in Barnea et al. [1] was expanded to include four pipes.New quantitative data on the steady state flow rate distribution and the transient response of the system to changes in the inlet flow rate and in the heating power are presented. The degree of complexity of three and four parallel heated pipes increases significantly compared to the case of two pipes. Several stable steady state flow rate distributions may be obtained for the same inlet flow rate, as well as various transient trajectories towards these steady states.The experimental results compare fairly well with the modified model simulations. The possibility of having multiple transient routs for the same constraint in the operational conditions is illustrated.

FLUKTUASI CURRENT ACCOUNT DAN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT TERHADAP CADANGAN DEVISA INDONESIA

Foreign exchange reserves are the central bank's assets as a source of financing funds for international trade transactions in the global market. This research aims to analyze the current account fluctuations and portfolio investment against Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. By using the time series 1981-2018 data sourced from the World Bank, the research results based on the method Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) indicates that the current account and the foreign exchange reserves have a two-way causality relationship and portfolio investment has a two-way causality relationship at Lag 3. The short-term estimate shows that the current account has a significant positive effect while the portfolio of investments affects negatively and significantly against the foreign exchange reserves. Long-term estimation of current account and portfolio investment is a positive and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves. Variance decomposition on short-term, intermediate and long-length contributions to the first largest foreign exchange reserves described by the foreign exchange reserves variable itself. The government should maintain the position of balance of transactions running on a surplus condition to support the increase in the number of foreign exchange reserves from time to time to encourage the acceleration of increasing the number of foreign exchange reserves cause in the short, medium and long-term first contribution to the variable foreign exchange reserves are on the foreign exchange reserves. Keywords : current account, exchange rate, GDP per capita, portfolio investment, reserves

Fees as the means of ensuring execution of obligations on taxes, dues and insurance payments: comparative analysis on the example of Russia and neighboring countries

This article examines the legal structure of fees as the means of ensuring execution of obligations on taxes. Analysis is conducted on the fees applies in the countries of former Soviet Union. The author reviews the construct of fees as the means of ensuring execution of obligation on paying governmental charges. Legislative norms of the Russian and foreign legislation that limit imposition of fees are compared. The scientific novelty consists in comparative analysis of the norms of foreign legislation on the example of Russia’s neighboring countries, which is substantiated by not only historical ties, but also same period of transition from planned to market economy. The author examines the legislations of foreign countries with regards to fees as the means of ensuring execution of obligations on taxes, dues and insurance payments, which is an effective method of budget revenue and encourages economic entities to cover back-ode taxes faster. Taking into account fluctuations of market conjecture, as well as other factors that negatively affect the national economy, Russian legislator should foresee other grounds, in addition to the existing, to suspend imposition of fees.

Causes of Current Account Fluctuations in West African Monetary Union

This study analyzes the sources of current account fluctuations in the West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) economies over the period from 1980 to 2017. It is part of the inter-temporal approach which considers that the dynamics of the current account of a country is influenced by global shocks and transient or permanent domestic shocks. Thus, we developed a three-variable structural autoregressive vector model. This is the international real interest rate that represents the aggregate shock, the ratio of current account to gross domestic product which is the proxy for transient domestic shocks, and the ratio of net output to gross domestic product to measure impact of permanent shocks to the current account. From the theoretical model, structural shocks are identified by applying the long-term restrictions imposed by the inter-temporal approach in the analysis of current account dynamics. The study leads to three major results: 1) current account fluctuations within WAEMU are explained by transient domestic shocks, 2) net product fluctuations are due to permanent domestic shocks, 3) Global or exogenous shocks have a modest contribution to current account fluctuations, but their effects on net income are still significant, especially in the long run.

THEORETICAL BASES OF ECONOMIC MEASUREMENT OF VALUE IN THE CONDITIONS OF GLOBAL TECHNOLOGICAL SHIFTS AND CRISES. NEWEST METHODOLOGICAL BASE (PART 2)

The problems of measuring scientific and technical progress in the transition to the sixth technological mode have been considered. Nowadays scientific and technical progress is measured mainly by natural indicators. Forecasting requires a valuation of capital, taking into account fluctuations in the interest rate at the macro level; assessment of public production efficiency and new technologies. The applied methodology for such assessments has not yet been formulated. For these purposes, the methodology of the theory of economic measurements, which is also at the infancy stage and its latest concepts can serve. In relation to scientific and technical progress, the object of assessment may be the cost of capital and its depreciation in the final phase of the transition period, the effectiveness of scientific and technical progress and the money itself, considered as the main measure of value, and creating the effects of procyclical cost of capital in the conditions of technological shifts and crises.

THEORETICAL BASES OF ECONOMIC MEASUREMENTS OF VALUE IN THE CONDITIONS OF GLOBAL TECHNOLOGICAL SHIFTS AND CRISES. NEWEST METHODOLOGICAL BASIS (PART 1)

Problems of measuring scientific and technological progress (STP) in the transition to the sixth technological mode have been considered. Now STP is measured mainly by natural indicators. Forecasting requires a valuation of capital, taking into account fluctuations in the interest rate at the macro level;assessment of public production efficiency and new technologies. Unified applied methodology for such assessments has not yet been formulated. For these purposes, the methodology of the theory of economic measurements, which is also in its infancy, and its latest concepts, can serve. In relation to STP, the object of assessment can be the value of capital and its depreciation in the final phase of the transition period, the effectiveness of STP and money itself, considered as the main measure of value and creating the effects of procyclical value of capital in the conditions of technological shifts and crises.