(1) This paper is a statistical analysis of cost and price changes since the war, and tries to explain why prices rose. (2) Part I presents estimates of the price (average value) of total final outlay, which are derived (see Table I) with minor adjustment from the official estimates of national income and expenditure. Separate estimates are given of the price of business output gross of imported material content but net of indirect taxes. Final prices are estimated to have risen 48 per cent. between 1946 and 1954. Of this the import-cost component accounts for almost one-quarter, labour costs for almost one-half, and unit gross profit margins for about one-fifth (see Table V). Similar analysis is made of the rise in the price and costs of 'business output'. There is reason to believe, however, that these cost components were themselves interrelated, i.e. wages (and hence labour costs) rose when prices rose; and absolute profit increases were associated with rising costs. (3) Part II attempts to carry the analysis farther by exploring these interrelationships. A hypothesis is first proposed, cast for convenience in the form of an algebraic model, consisting basically of two assumptions concerning the behaviour of labour costs and profits respectively: namely, that previous prices are a main influence on money wages and salaries, and that prices are mainly determined by previous (labour plus import) costs. If such a system inherits a rising price trend, or has injected into it a rise in import costs, it will tend to generate a sequence of rising prices in subsequent periods. Unless all costs increase in proportion, the sequence will be damped. It is shown that a rising trend of productivity can act as a powerful damping factor, but only if real wages and salaries (or, more strictly, the excess of increases in money incomes over lagged price changes) increase less rapidly than productivity. (4) Room is left in the formulation of the model for the possible influence, both upon labour costs and profits, of changes in the pressure of demand. Examination of the actual behaviour of labour costs and of profits suggests that demand is capable of modifying the responses of the system at each stage; but it seems unlikely that such modifications would completely offset strong cost impulses. If this is correct, the model can still be used as a tool of analysis. (5) An attempt is then made to see how far the historical development can be explained in these terms. It is difficult to know how much labour costs would have
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