A model is presented which relates the absolute backscattered noise level observed in an ultrasonic immersion inspection to details of the measurement system and properties of the metal specimen under study. The model assumes that the backscattered noise signal observed for a given transducer position is an incoherent superposition of echoes from many grains. The model applies to normal-incidence, pulse-echo inspections of weakly-scattering materials using toneburst pulses from either a planar or focused transducer. The model can be used in two distinct ways. Measured noise echoes can be analyzed to deduce a “Figure-of-Merit” (FOM) which is a property of the specimen alone, and which parameterizes the contribution of the microstructure to the observed noise. If the FOM is known, the model can be used to predict the absolute noise levels that would be observed under various inspection scenarios. Tests of the model are reported, using both synthetic noise echoes, and measured noise echoes from metal specimens having simple and complicated microstructures.