Absolute Dynamic Topography Research Articles

Tracking Loop Current Eddies in the Gulf of Mexico Using Satellite-Derived Chlorophyll-a

During the period of 2018–2022, there were six named Loop Current Eddy (LCE) shedding events in the central Gulf of Mexico (GoM). LCEs form when a large anticyclonic eddy (AE) separates from the main Loop Current (LC) and propagates westward. In doing so, each LCE traps and advects warmer, saltier waters with lower Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations than the surrounding Gulf waters. This difference in water mass permits the study of the effectiveness of using Chl-a from satellite-derived ocean color to identify LCEs in the GoM. In this work, we apply an eddy-tracking algorithm to Chl-a to detect LCEs, which we have validated against the traditional sea surface height-(SSH) based eddy-tracking approach with three datasets. We apply a closed-contour eddy-tracking algorithm to the SSH of two model products (HYbrid Coordination Ocean Model; HYCOM and Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean; NEMO) and absolute dynamic topography (ADT) from altimetry, as well as satellite-derived Chl-a data to identify the six named LCEs from 2018 to 2022. We find that Chl-a best characterizes LCEs in the summertime due to a basin-wide increase in the horizontal gradient of Chl-a, which permits a more clearly defined eddy edge. This study demonstrates that Chl-a can be effectively used to identify and track LC and LCEs in the GoM, serving as a promising source of information for regional data assimilative models.

Impact of assimilation of absolute dynamic topography on Arctic Ocean circulation

The ocean circulation is typically constrained in operational analysis and forecasting systems through the assimilation of sea level anomaly (SLA) retrievals from satellite altimetry. This approach has limited benefits in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas due to data gaps caused by sea ice coverage. Moreover, assimilation of SLA in seasonally ice-free regions may be negatively affected by the quality of the Mean Sea Surface (MSS) used to derive the SLA. Here, we use the Regional Ice Ocean Prediction System (RIOPS) to investigate the impact of assimilating Absolute Dynamic Topography (ADT) fields on the circulation in the Arctic Ocean. This approach avoids the use of a MSS and additionally provides information on sea level in ice covered regions using measurements across leads (openings) in the sea ice. RIOPS uses a coupled ice-ocean model on a 3-4 km grid-resolution pan-Arctic domain together with a multi-variate reduced-order Kalman Filter. The system assimilates satellite altimetry and sea surface temperature together with in situ profile observations. The background error is modified to match the spectral characteristics of the ADT fields, which contain less energy at small scales than traditional SLA due to filtering applied to reduce noise originating in the geoid product used. A series of four-year reanalyses demonstrate significant reductions in innovation statistics with important impacts across the Arctic Ocean. Results suggest that the assimilation of ADT can improve circulation and sea ice drift in the Arctic Ocean, and intensify volume transports through key Arctic gateways and resulting exchanges with the Atlantic Ocean. A reanalysis with a modified Mean Dynamic Topography (MDT) is able to reproduce many of the benefits of the ADT but does not capture the enhanced transports. Assimilation of SLA observations from leads in the sea ice appears to degrade several circulation features; however, these results may be sensitive to errors in MDT. This study highlights the large uncertainties that exist in present operational ocean forecasting systems for the Arctic Ocean due to the relative paucity and reduced quality of observations compared to ice-free areas of the Global Ocean. Moreover, this underscores the need for dedicated and focused efforts to address this critical gap in the Global Ocean Observing System.

Mesoscale activity drives the habitat suitability of yellowfin tuna in the Gulf of Mexico

Yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, represents an important component of commercial and recreational fisheries in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). We investigated the influence of environmental conditions on the spatiotemporal distribution of yellowfin tuna using fisheries’ catch data spanning 2012–2019 within Mexican waters. We implemented hierarchical Bayesian regression models with spatial and temporal random effects and fixed effects of several environmental covariates to predict habitat suitability (HS) for the species. The best model included spatial and interannual anomalies of the absolute dynamic topography of the ocean surface (ADTSA and ADTIA, respectively), bottom depth, and a seasonal cyclical random effect. High catches occurred mainly towards anticyclonic features at bottom depths > 1000 m. The spatial extent of HS was higher in years with positive ADTIA, which implies more anticyclonic activity. The highest values of HS (> 0.7) generally occurred at positive ADTSA in oceanic waters of the central and northern GoM. However, high HS values (> 0.6) were observed in the southern GoM, in waters with cyclonic activity during summer. Our results highlight the importance of mesoscale features for the spatiotemporal distribution of yellowfin tunas and could help to develop dynamic fisheries management strategies in Mexico and the U.S. for this valuable resource.

Spatiotemporal variability of the coastal circulation in the northern Gulf of Cadiz from Copernicus Sentinel-3A satellite radar altimetry measurements

This study presents a generalised characterisation of the surface circulation over the northern shelf of the Gulf of Cadiz, based on 4 years of high-resolution satellite altimetry data from Sentinel-3A and wind model data. The altimetry-based surface zonal currents, adjusted for bottom-drag and wind effects, are compared with a generic CMEMS product and validated against in-situ ADCP measurements. The proposed altimetry product demonstrates superior performance than the CMEMS product, accurately reflecting surface circulation direction compared to in-situ measurements (r = 0.77, RMSE = 0.10 m/s, bias = 0.01 m/s). The use of the bottom-drag and wind-corrected/uncorrected altimetry product for spatiotemporal analysis of the shelf circulation revealed the distinct contributions of wind-driven and geostrophic components in different basin sectors. The results show that over the western basin, positive (eastward) surface currents were predominantly driven by westerly winds, while only occasionally, westward flows coincided with easterly winds, suggesting a higher control of the geostrophic component over the westward flows. In contrast, over the eastern basin, both eastward and westward flows were found to be primarily driven by favourable winds. Additionally, the analysis of Absolute Dynamic Topography (ADT) values along the whole basin showed the presence of ADT gradients both along-shore and cross-shore over the shelf, contributing to geostrophic flows. Finally, the seasonal analysis showed that eastward circulation tends to dominate during the spring and summer months, related to the upwelling season in the Gulf of Cadiz and associated westerly winds. Westward flows prevail during the winter months, related to easterly winds and the rebalancing of the along-shore sea level gradient during relaxed upwelling conditions. The findings demonstrate a significant improvement in the use of satellite altimetry data to study complex oceanographic dynamics in coastal areas, where both spatial and temporal variability are high. Moreover, the similarity of our results to those obtained from in-situ systems supports the use of altimetry data and publicly available wind models to support oceanographic studies in remote or resource-limited areas.

Quality assessment of the mapping of satellite ocean altimeter data

Based on the orbital data of the Jason3 satellite, the absolute dynamic topography (ADT) of 1/8°×1/8° and 1/4°×1/4° products distributed by AVISO (hereinafter referred to as AVISO1/8° and AVISO1/4°) was interpolated into the Jason3 orbit, and the effective resolution and merged product error of the two products were evaluated with the Northwest Pacific Ocean as the target area. In addition, combined with independent SST data and drifting buoy data, the ground conversion field in the merged data was tested, and the results showed that although the spatial resolution of AVISO1/8° was doubled compared with AVISO1/4°, its effect was not significantly improved, and the error in some areas was even slightly greater than that of AVISO1/4°. Finally, these two merged datasets were used to identify mesoscale vortices. AVISO1/8° have higher precision and make identifying vortex structures easier. The two products are consistent in identifying vortices with relatively large radius, while there are differences in identifying vortices with relatively small radius.

Seasonal and Interannual Variability Between Upper Ocean Processes and the Slope Current in the Region Around the Cosmonauts Sea Off East Antarctica

AbstractThe impacts of large‐scale climate variability on the current system and meridional transport in the Cosmonauts Sea off East Antarctica are studied by employing the satellite‐observed absolute dynamic topography (ADT) data and reanalysis hydrographic data. Three currents converge in the Cosmonauts Sea: the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), the Weddell Gyre Eastern Branch (WGeb) and the Antarctic Slope Current (ASC) containing the Antarctic Slope Front (ASF) topographically locked in the slope region. Strong seasonal and interannual variations are associated with these currents. The ACC and ASC are both stronger in autumn and weaker in spring and summer, while the WGeb extends eastward in winter and retreats in summer. On the interannual timescale, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) reinforces the westerlies during its positive phase, pushing the ACC southward and suppressing westward ASC, and vice versa. The results on related mechanisms suggest the significant barotropic modulations induced by the winds on ocean dynamics from both the sea surface and interior ocean. The westerlies could affect the meridional sea level gradient through Ekman transport convergence, inducing the geostrophic adjustment of currents. Moreover, the vorticity input from the wind field produces meridional water transport under the topographic and planetary β‐effects, potentially influencing the structure of the ASF and associated ASC. This frontal adjustment is superimposed on the background barotropic variations and causes strong local responses of the currents to the remote wind forcing, which indicates a propagation of variability signals from large‐scale barotropic circulations to frontal‐scale baroclinic currents in the ocean interior.

Meiofauna at a tropical sandy beach in the SW Atlantic: the influence of seasonality on diversity.

Sandy beaches are dynamic environments housing a large diversity of organisms and providing important environmental services. Meiofaunal metazoan are small organisms that play a key role in the sediment. Their diversity, distribution and composition are driven by sedimentary and oceanographic parameters. Understanding the diversity patterns of marine meiofauna is critical in a changing world. In this study, we investigate if there is seasonal difference in meiofaunal assemblage composition and diversity along 1 year and if the marine seascapes dynamics (water masses with particular biogeochemical features, characterized by temperature, salinity, absolute dynamic topography, chromophoric dissolved organic material, chlorophyll-a, and normalized fluorescent line height), rainfall, and sediment parameters (total organic matter, carbonate, carbohydrate, protein, lipids, protein-to-carbohydrate, carbohydrate-to-lipids, and biopolymeric carbon) affect significatively meiofaunal diversity at a tropical sandy beach. We tested two hypotheses here: (i) meiofaunal diversity is higher during warmer months and its composition changes significatively among seasons along a year at a tropical sandy beach, and (ii) meiofaunal diversity metrics are significantly explained by marine seascapes characteristics and sediment parameters. We used metabarcoding (V9 hypervariable region from 18S gene) from sediment samples to assess the meiofaunal assemblage composition and diversity (phylogenetic diversity and Shannon's diversity) over a period of 1 year. Meiofauna was dominated by Crustacea (46% of sequence reads), Annelida (28% of sequence reads) and Nematoda (12% of sequence reads) in periods of the year with high temperatures (>25 °C), high salinity (>31.5 ppt), and calm waters. Our data support our initial hypotheses revealing a higher meiofaunal diversity (phylogenetic and Shannon's Diversity) and different composition during warmer periods of the year. Meiofaunal diversity was driven by a set of multiple variables, including biological variables (biopolymeric carbon) and organic matter quality (protein content, lipid content, and carbohydrate-to-lipid ratio).

Comparative Analysis of Jet Detection Methods on the Basis of Satellite Altimetry Data by Example of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current Sector to the South of Africa

For the period of satellite altimetry observation 1993–2018, a comparison was made of estimates of the linear meridional shifts of the jet structure and variations in current intensity in the sector of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) south of Africa (10° E–25° W), obtained on the basis of the parameters derived from the module of the absolute dynamic topography (ADT) gradient \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\left| {\ abla \\zeta } \\right|$$\\end{document}: directly \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\left| {\ abla \\zeta } \\right|$$\\end{document}, module of the velocity of geostrophic current |u| on the ocean surface, half of square of the ADT gradient \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\frac{1}{2}{{\\left| {\ abla \\zeta } \\right|}^{2}}$$\\end{document}, and specific kinetic energy \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\frac{1}{2}{{u}^{2}}$$\\end{document}. The analysis was carried out by a method developed earlier and refined in this paper using linear regression analysis. It is shown that qualitatively the characters of the meridional shifts (displacement of the curves of these parameters averaged over latitude and for each year) in latitude and the corresponding current intensity variations (i.e., variations in the parameters themselves) over 26-year observations, when calculated through each of the four parameters, turned out to be similar. The same similarity was obtained from the calculations with respect to the ADT scale. Meanwhile, the quantitative differences between calculations for different pairs of parameters can be significant even in the \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\left| u \\right|$$\\end{document} and \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\left| {\ abla \\zeta } \\right|$$\\end{document} pair. In quantitative terms, the absolute values of shifts of the jet structure and variations in the intensity of currents in the ACC band in the studied sector of the Southern Ocean generally increase from those linearly dependent on the ADT gradient module to quadratically dependent ones.

Quantification of hydrodynamic model sea level bias utilizing deep learning and synergistic integration of data sources

This study demonstrates the use of machine learning strategies to examine and quantify the bias that often exists in sea level data from hydrodynamic models. The sea level bias is considered to consist of two components: (i) hydrodynamic modelling errors due to numerical modelling limitations, and (ii) a bias related to the difference between vertical datums. The goal is to accurately quantify these components, enabling the determination of absolute dynamic topography from coastal to offshore areas. The method is tested in the Baltic Sea employing a synergy of hydrodynamic models, tide gauges, and satellite altimetry.Firstly, a multivariate deep neural network approach inspired by WaveNet is used to identify and quantify hydrodynamic modelling errors. A wrapper-type sequential feature elimination algorithm identifies seven relevant variables out of the initially considered sixteen for training the deep leaning model in the Baltic Sea region. The model is trained using sixteen tide gauge records. As a result, the model predicts hydrodynamic modelling errors with a root mean squared error of 3.2 cm and 3.4 cm, and an R-Squared value of 0.82 and 0.77 for the training and test sets, respectively. Comparing the predicted and observed errors reveals localized areas where other sea level dynamics, such as seiches in the Gulf of Riga, may be of interest but were not incorporated into the deep learning model. Secondly, once the hydrodynamic modelling errors are quantified, the method allows for the determination of the vertical reference bias by comparing known and reliable observations, such as tide gauge and satellite altimetry data. The vertical reference bias is calculated to be 18.1 ± 2.9 cm.The method significantly improves the accuracy of dynamic topography, resulting in an average root mean squared error of 4.1 cm compared with satellite altimetry and a correlation of 0.98 compared with tide gauges. This approach presents a novel way to integrate modelled and observed dynamic topography using machine learning techniques for enhancing our understanding and its applications.

Stirring across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current's southern boundary at the prime meridian, Weddell Sea

Abstract. At the southern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), relatively warm ACC waters encounter the colder waters surrounding Antarctica. Strong density gradients across the southern boundary indicate the presence of a frontal jet and are thought to modulate the southward heat transport across the front. In this study, the southern boundary in the Weddell Sea sector at the prime meridian is surveyed for the first time in high resolution over 2 months during an austral summer with underwater gliders occupying a transect across the front on five occasions. The five transects show that the frontal structure (i.e. hydrography, velocities and lateral density gradients) varies temporally. The results demonstrate significant, transient (a few weeks) variability of the southern boundary and its frontal jet in location, strength and width. A mesoscale cold-core eddy is identified to disrupt the southern boundary’s frontal structure and strengthen lateral density gradients across the front. The front's barrier properties are assessed using mixing length scales and potential vorticity to establish the cross-frontal exchange of properties between the ACC and the Weddell Gyre. The results show that stronger lateral density gradients caused by the mesoscale eddy strengthen the barrier-like properties of the front through reduced mixing length scales and pronounced gradients of potential vorticity. In contrast, the barrier-like properties of the southern boundary are reduced when no mesoscale eddy is influencing the density gradients across the front. Using satellite altimetry, we further demonstrate that the barrier properties over the past decade have strengthened as a result of increased meridional gradients of absolute dynamic topography and increased frontal jet speeds in comparison to previous decades. Our results emphasise that locally and rapidly changing barrier properties of the southern boundary are important to quantify the cross-frontal exchange, which is particularly relevant in regions where the southern boundary is located near the Antarctic shelf break (e.g. in the West Antarctic sector).

Spatiotemporal Variation of Anticyclonic Eddies in the South China Sea during 1993–2019

Based on the absolute dynamic topography data from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service, this paper applies the Topographic Position Index to develop a new approach for mapping the anticyclonic eddies in the South China Sea (SCS). The results show that anticyclonic eddies are active in the deep basin of SCS, and the five selected parameters (number or frequency, lifetime, kinetic energy, amplitude, and area or radius) of anticyclonic eddies have a similar temporal variation and a similar spatial distribution pattern. (1) As for monthly variations, anticyclonic eddies are active in late spring and most active in summer. (2) The El Niño–Southern Oscillation had a stronger impact on the inter-annual variations of anticyclonic eddies in the SCS before 2013, resulting in a significant transition of inter-annual variations of these five parameters in around 2004. After 2013, most of these five parameters had a minimum in 2015 and a maximum in 2017. (3) Analyses show that the eddy activities in the SCS are significantly influenced by the monsoon wind and the western boundary current like Kuroshio. Therefore, the areas southwest of Taiwan Island and east of Vietnam are the two areas where the anticyclonic eddies are most active, with much larger eddy kinetic energy and much higher eddy amplitude.

Suitable region of dynamic optimal interpolation for efficiently altimetry sea surface height mapping

The dynamic optimal interpolation (DOI) method is a technique based on quasi-geostrophic dynamics for merging multi-satellite altimeter along-track observations to generate gridded absolute dynamic topography (ADT). Compared with the linear optimal interpolation (LOI) method, the DOI method can improve the accuracy of gridded ADT locally but with low computational efficiency. Consequently, considering both computational efficiency and accuracy, the DOI method is more suitable to be used only for regional applications. In this study, we propose to evaluate the suitable region for applying the DOI method based on the correlation between the absolute value of the Jacobian operator of the geostrophic stream function and the improvement achieved by the DOI method. After verifying the LOI and DOI methods, the suitable region was investigated in three typical areas: the Gulf Stream (25°N-50°N, 55°W-80°W), the Japanese Kuroshio (25°N-45°N, 135°E−155°E), and the South China Sea (5°N-25°N, 100°E−125°E). We propose to use the DOI method only in regions outside the equatorial region and where the absolute value of the Jacobian operator of the geostrophic stream function is higher than 1 × 10−11.

Calibration of the Instrumental Errors on Marine Gravity Recovery from SWOT Altimeter

The wide-swath altimetry mission, Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT), makes it possible to further break through the accuracy and resolution of marine gravity field recovery. However, as its main payload, the Ka-band radar interferometer (KaRIN) is easy to be affected by the spacecraft attitude, mechanical deformations and dual antenna signal reception status, which generates instrumental errors including roll errors, phase errors, baseline dilation errors, timing errors, and KaRIN noise. Together with ocean temporal variations, the instrumental errors have large effects on the SWOT Sea Surface Height (SSH) observations and hence the marine gravity field recovery. Here, taking the sea area around Japan as an example, we investigated the calibrations of instrumental errors and ocean temporal variations on the recovery of the marine gravity field. The SSH observations of SWOT are first simulated by Mean Sea Surface (MSS), Absolute Dynamic Topography (ADT), Mean Dynamic Topography (MDT) and instrumental errors. Next, the influence of instrumental errors on determining vertical deflection within single-cycle data was analyzed. Then, three calibration methods (KaRIN/KaRIN cross-calibration, Representative KaRIN/KaRIN cross-calibration, and KaRIN/Nadir cross-calibration) are used to reduce the instrumental errors; the experimental results show KaRIN/KaRIN cross-calibration is the optimal one. Last, for the multi-cycle observations containing ocean temporal variations, crossover calibration is done in single cycle and then followed by collinear adjustment in multi-cycles. This approach is verified by considering 18 simulated cycles that cover almost 1 year. Our result indicates an improvement in the accuracy of marine gravity anomaly by about 45% compared to that of one cycle. The calibration strategy of instrumental errors and ocean temporal variations can be used for high-precision marine gravity field recovery with abundant SWOT observations in the near future.

Structure and Temporal Variability of the Northern Branch of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Drake Passage

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current plays the key role in the circulation of the Southern Ocean and affects the distribution of heat by the ocean on the global scale. The study of the dynamics and structure of this current becomes especially important in a changing climate. The current is well revealed by satellite altimetry data, which makes possible to study temporal and spatial variability of its structure at different scales. In these studies, the methods for determining the position of individual fronts of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current based on satellite altimetry data become especially important. In this work, we compare various approaches for detection of front locations. The structure of the northernmost branch of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the Subantarctic Front, and its spatial and temporal variability was studied based on satellite altimetry data from 1993 to 2020 and the results of a hydrographical section occupied by the R/V “Akademik Mstislav Keldysh” in the northern part of the Drake Passage in February 2020. We selected a 350 km long part of the TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1,2,3 satellite altimeter track from Tierra del Fuego to the south for the analysis of the dynamics of the front. Criteria for determining the position of the northern and main branches of the Subantarctic Front are presented based on satellite altimetry data. A long-term shift of the position of the fronts relative to the previously accepted levels of absolute dynamic topography has been found. It was found that the accuracy of determining the position of fronts using fixed values of dynamic topography may decrease with time, in particular due to changes in the mean sea level. A statistically significant long-term trend of sea level rise in the region of the Subantarctic Front was found. This trend is 4 mm/yr for the northern branch and 2.5 mm/yr for the main branch.

Deconstructing the causes of July sea level variability in the East Sea from 1994 to 2021

In 2021 the East Sea experienced its highest July sea level (65.09 cm), as well as the highest July sea surface and atmospheric temperatures, in the 29 years between 1993 and 2021. We present several methodologies to identify the more important causes of sea level change (SLC) in a semi-enclosed sea and explore the critical fluctuation of ocean mass transport divergence during a period of rapid sea level rise. Based on satellite altimeter data in the East Sea, the SLC, as reflected in the absolute dynamic topography (ADT), which is the ADT difference between the last and first days of a month, was 7.18 cm in July 2021. This may reflect a combination of oceanic and atmospheric factors: ocean heat transport divergence among the Korea, Tsugaru, and Soya Straits was found to contribute 2.32 cm of SLC, atmospheric heat flux at the sea surface contributed 2.87 cm of SLC, and mass divergence (including errors) accounted for 1.98 cm of SLC. The monthly mean sea level (ADT) variation in the East Sea should be examined in terms of the oceanic and atmospheric fluxes, and the SLC sources can additionally be divided into heat and others (mass + errors). The proportional contribution of heat to SLC from 1994 to 2021 was 97.4%. Although the contributions of mass and errors were small, there were substantial temporal fluctuations, as their standard deviation reached up to 96.7% of that of SLC in ADT. In the near future, a more precise analysis of the contributions of mass and errors to SLC is required.

Forecasting of absolute dynamic topography using deep learning algorithm with application to the Baltic Sea

Accurate sea-level forecasting is crucial for navigation, engineering and coastal conservation. One of the major obstacles in obtaining accurate sea-level data, both at coastal and offshore areas, has been in defining a realistic vertical datum. The Baltic Sea countries, however, have collaborated in calculating a high-resolution regional geoid model (NKG2015). This now paves the way for determining accurate sea-levels over the entire sea. Accordingly, this study explores the application of a deep learning two-dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (Conv2D) technique along with using essential inputs (e.g. accurate dynamic topography (DT), wind speed and direction, surface pressure and temperature). The method was tested for a three-year 2017–2019 period in the Baltic Sea. The evaluation was based on two statistical criteria: spatial root mean squared error (RMSE) and R-squared (R2). Results revealed that the proposed Conv2D model allows predicting the DT of the Baltic Sea, with an R2 of 0.91. The spatial RMSE plot also confirms accurate DT predictions for most of the Baltic Sea points, with the discrepancies distributed within ±4 cm. Spatially, some larger RMSE values (∼10 cm) were obtained at particular locations in south-eastern Baltic Sea, which may be due to the input sources utilized. Examination of sea level maxima also showed that the Conv2D model reproduced the maxima events in most scenarios (9 of 10 and 8 of 11 in Gulf of Finland and Riga, respectively) with residuals that varied up to 7 cm–18 cm. For the higher residuals, the Conv2D tended to underestimate the sea level. This suggests the importance of considering the necessary inputs (e.g waves) for forecasting storm surges and that the Conv2D model can still be improved. External validation was also performed using along-track sea level satellite altimetry data, with differences between forecasted model and satellite being within 5 cm. This confirms the validity of the forecasted model and the occurrences of model biases to be minimum. The method utilized shows the potential to contribute toward operational sea level forecasting in the Baltic Sea.

Seasonal and El Niño–Southern Oscillation-related ocean variability in the Panama Bight

Abstract. In the Panama Bight, two different seasonal surface circulation patterns coincide with a strong mean sea level variation, as observed from 27 years of absolute dynamic topography (ADT) and the use of self-organizing maps. From January to April, a cyclonic gyre with a strong southwestward Panama Jet Surface Current (PJSC) dominates the basin circulation, forced by the Panama surface wind jet that also produces upwelling, reducing sea surface temperature (SST), increasing sea surface salinity (SSS) and causing an ADT decrease. From June to December, the Choco surface wind jet enhances SST, precipitation and river runoff, which reduces SSS, causing an ADT rise, which in turn forces a weak circulation in the bight, vanishing the PJSC. Interannual variability in the region is strongly affected by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); however this climatic variability does not modify the seasonal circulation patterns in the Panama Bight. In contrast, the positive (negative) ENSO phase increases (decreases) SST and ADT in the Panama Bight, with a mean annual difference of 0.9 ∘C and 9.6 cm, respectively, between the two conditions, while its effect on SSS is small. However, as the strong seasonal SST, SSS and ADT ranges are up to 2.2 ∘C, 2.59 g kg−1 and 28.3 cm, the seasonal signal dominates over interannual variations in the bight.

Growth variability in Atlantic horse mackerel Trachurus trachurus (Linneus, 1758) across the central Mediterranean Sea: contrasting latitudinal gradient and different ecosystems

Data on Atlantic horse mackerel Trachurus trachurus (Linneus, 1758) were collected along 8-year acoustic surveys (2011-2018). Age and growth variability of horse mackerel from the Central Mediterranean Sea were investigated within different, contrasting habitats, from the south of Sicily to the north Tyrrhenian (Ligurian Sea). Data from satellite provided the habitat features along the study period over the whole surveyed area. For comparison purposes, according to the ecosystems difference the study area has been split into four subareas: Strait of Sicily (SoS), North of Sicily (NS), south Tyrrhenian Sea (ST) and north Tyrrhenian Sea (NT). In terms of the FAO Geographical Sub-Area definition the SoS corresponding to GSA15 and 16, NS to GSA 10 south, ST to GSA10 north and NT to GSA 9. Results showed a growth homogeneity in the study area, suggesting a unique stock inhabiting these waters. The only exception was recorded for juveniles (Age 0 class) in the SoS, where a lower size at age was detected compared to other areas. A multiple linear modelling analyses suggested that variability in length at age 0 was mainly linked to the oceanographic differences between an upwelling driven system (Strait of Sicily) and the other ecosystems, where enrichment processes are mainly due to river runoff (relevant in ST and NT). Namely, Absolute Dynamic Topography (ADT) and body condition factor (Kn) were significantly related to differences in length at age 0. Results revealed that currents (and gyres) are among the principal abiotic factors controlling Atlantic horse mackerel growth in its first year of life, suggesting that circulation and food-related processes (i.e., zooplankton concentration) are of major importance for this species. Finally preliminary observations suggest the Strait of Sicily may be the main spawning area among those analyzed.

Seasonal Meridional Displacement of the Jet Structure of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current South of Africa

This paper describes a method for analyzing the seasonal variability of the structure of the gradient field of Absolute Dynamic Topography (ADT) based on the satellite altimetry data. This structure is understood as the alternation in the meridional direction of the zones of increased values of the absolute values of the ADT gradient and the zones of their lower values, i.e. jets and inter-jet gaps. The technique uses linear and harmonic regression analyzes and makes it possible to calculate the amplitudes and phases of stationary harmonic oscillations that approximate the seasonal variations in the meridional shift of the structure of the ADT gradient field and in the absolute values of the ADT gradient, as well as to estimate the calculation error. Based on this technique, corresponding calculations were made for the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) band south of Africa (from 10 ° W to 25 ° E). In particular, the amplitude of the seasonal variation of the meridional shift of the ADT gradient field for the ACC as a whole was 0.009 ± 0.013° latitude with a maximum northward shift in December. At the same time, there are zones within the ACC band where this amplitude reaches 0.12°, 0.16° and 0.28° latitude. The amplitude of the shift of the indicated field relative to the scale of the ADT itself within the ACC band at different scales is 0.6–2.5 cm. It is shown that this shift is mainly due to the seasonal variation of the ADT at geographic points. The amplitude of the seasonal variation of the ADT gradient modulus relative to both latitude and the ADT scales increases from 1 × 10–3 cm/km in the central part of the ACC to 6–7 × 10–3 cm/km at the southern and northern peripheries.

Oceanic Eddy Detection and Analysis from Satellite-Derived SSH and SST Fields in the Kuroshio Extension

Vigorous mesoscale eddies are broadly distributed in the Kuroshio Extension and can generally be identified from sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) fields. Nevertheless, the changes in SSH and SST caused by mesoscale eddies and their seasonal correlation in the Kuroshio Extension are not clear, as well as the difference between identified eddy results from the two data. Combining in situ Argo float profiles data, the correlation between SSH anomaly (SSHA) and SST anomaly (SSTA) signals in mesoscale eddies are analyzed. The result shows that SSTA–SSHA signals inside eddies are generally more correlated in winter than in summer. Argo subsurface temperature anomalies θ′ and SSHA signals inside eddies show a high correlation, with a regression coefficient θ′/SSHA of about 7 °C·m−1, while correlations of Argo θ′–SSTA inside eddies are low. Generally, the lifetime and propagation distance of SSTA-based eddies are shorter and smaller than those of SSHA-based eddies, which may be related to the rapid changes in SSTA field and the interference of small-scale oceanic signal in the SST field. Comparing with SSHA-based eddies, which exist primarily around the region of the Kuroshio mainstream (33°–36°N), SSTA-based eddies are concentrated in the Oyashio Extension (39°–42°N), where SST gradient is large, and changes in SST fields caused by mesoscale eddies are more obvious and more likely to be captured by satellites there. In addition, the geographical distributions of SSHA- and SSTA-based eddy amplitudes are consistent with the absolute dynamic topography and SST gradient.