Abrupt Climate Research Articles

Greater moisture impacts on radial growth of Larix sibirica in the eastern Altay Mountains since the 1990s.

Against the background of climate warming and humidification, the so-called 'divergence problem' reduces the stability of tree rings in response to climate, and affects the reliability of tree-ring reconstruction. Investigation of the divergence problem is crucial to improve our understanding of the response patterns of trees to climate warming, and provide a scientific basis for accurate climate reconstruction. Based on tree-ring width data for Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) growing at low elevations in the eastern Altay Mountains, we analyzed the relationship between radial growth of trees and climatic factors in the context of abrupt climate change in this region. We calculated the proportional contribution of five climatic factors to the radial growth of trees, and discussed the response mechanism of radial growth of L. sibirica in combination with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. The radial growth of L. sibirica was mainly constrained by water availability. Before climate warming (1961-1990), the radial growth of L. sibirica was mainly limited by temperature in the previous June. After abrupt climate warming (1991-2020), there was a significant positive correlation between growth and soil moisture in the previous winter, suggesting that high temperatures in the following spring would limit tree radial growth if water availability was low. The attribution analysis results revealed that, before 1990, the proportional of relative contribution of temperature to radial growth of trees exceeded 60%. Since 1990, the proportional of relative contribution of water (precipitation and volumetric soil water) to growth of L. sibirica increased. This might reflect the combined effects of local climatic conditions and changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation.

Effects of Climate Change on Temperature Sensitivity of Vegetation Growth in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain: Spatial–Temporal Dynamics and Ecological Adaptability

This paper explores the optimal temperature change in normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) growth in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain under the background of climate change, aiming to better cope with the impact of global warming on vegetation growth. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the NDVI and temperature factors were analyzed by using the NDVI, average temperature (Tavg), maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) datasets from 1982 to 2020. Through the Buishand U test and sliding slope detection, 1998 was determined to be a year of abrupt climate change. Furthermore, SHAP important feature analysis, a generalized additive model, correlation analysis, and other methods were used to identify the trend in the optimum temperature of vegetation growth before and after climate change. The results showed that (1) from 1982 to 2020, Tavg, Tmax, Tmin, and the NDVI in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain showed a significant upward trend. At the same time, the spatial distribution of these indicators shows the distribution characteristics of high in the south and low in the north. (2) The NDVI was positively correlated with Tavg, Tmax, and Tmin, and the correlation with Tmin was most significant. (3) The most suitable Tavg, Tmax, and Tmin intervals for vegetation growth were 20~30 °C, 25~35 °C, and 16~25 °C, respectively. (4) The optimum temperature range of vegetation growth was expanded after climate change, and the change rates of the Tavg and Tmax lower limits reached 24% and 25%, respectively, under the best condition of vegetation growth. (5) After abrupt climate change, the temperature suitable for vegetation growth increased significantly in the northern part of the plain but decreased slightly in the southern part.

Strong coupling between the East Asian summer monsoon and regional hydrological conditions as evidenced by multiproxy stalagmite records for the last deglaciation

Millennial-to centennial-scale abrupt climate events during the last glacial‒interglacial transition have significant relevance to modern-day extreme climate changes, which are occurring more frequently in the context of global warming. However, the regional expression of humidity conditions during the last deglaciation and their possible forcing mechanism in northern China are controversial. Here, combined with published δ18O data, we report 35-year-resolved δ13C and 76-year-resolved Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca records from a stalagmite from 15.3 to 10.9 ka BP from Lianhua Cave, northern China. The LH4 stalagmite δ18O record clearly records a weak monsoon event during the Younger Dryas (YD) from 12.8 to 11.6 ka BP and a strong monsoon event during the Bølling-Allerød (BA) from 14.6 to 12.8 ka BP. In addition, the δ13C and trace element ratio records, which represent local hydroclimatic changes, indicate wetter conditions during the BA and drier conditions during the YD, which appear to match well with the δ18O variations on the millennial timescale. A comparison of 28 records from 17 sites along the modern margin of the China summer monsoon revealed that the BA was characterized by wet conditions; inversely, the YD was characterized by dry conditions throughout northern China, which is obviously different from the consensus of the wet YD and the dry BA in northern northeastern China. The covariance in northern China suggests that the hydrological variation may be modulated by the advance and retreat of the large-scale East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation. Further comparison revealed an anticorrelated relationship between millennial-scale precipitation changes in northern China and the middle‒lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley during the last deglaciation. This correlation is analogous to the dipole precipitation mode at present, which is likely associated with the strength and position of the westerly jet and/or the western Pacific subtropical high, both of which play important roles in the spatial distribution of precipitation over eastern China.

The Greenland spatial fingerprint of Dansgaard–Oeschger events in observations and models

Pleistocene Ice Ages display abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) climate oscillations that provide prime examples of Earth System tipping points-abrupt transition that may result in irreversible change. Greenland ice cores provide key records of DO climate variability, but gas-calibrated estimates of the temperature change magnitudes have been limited to central and northwest Greenland. Here, we present ice-core δ15N-N2 records from south (Dye 3) and coastal east Greenland (Renland) to calibrate the local water isotope thermometer and provide a Greenland-wide spatial characterization of DO event magnitude. We combine these data with existing records of δ18O, deuterium excess, and accumulation rates to create a multiproxy "fingerprint" of the DO impact on Greenland. Isotope-enabled climate models have skill in simulating the observational multiproxy DO event impact, and we use a series of idealized simulations with such models to identify regions of the North Atlantic that are critical in explaining DO variability. Our experiments imply that wintertime sea ice variation in the subpolar gyre, rather than the commonly invoked Nordic Seas, is both a sufficient and a necessary condition to explain the observed DO impacts in Greenland, whatever the distal cause. Moisture-tagging experiments support the idea that Greenland DO isotope signals may be explained almost entirely via changes in the vapor source distribution and that site temperature is not a main control on δ18O during DO transitions, contrary to the traditional interpretation. Our results provide a comprehensive, multiproxy, data-model synthesis of abrupt DO climate variability in Greenland.

Deciphering the Variations and Mechanisms of Global Land Monsoons during Marine Isotope Stage 3

Abstract Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) is characterized by significant millennial-scale climatic oscillations between cold stadials and mild interstadials, which presents a valuable case for understanding hydrological response to abrupt climate change. Through a set of coupled model simulations, our results broadly show an antiphased interhemispheric change in land monsoonal precipitation during the present-day relative to MIS 3 interstadial and the stadial–interstadial transition, with a general decrease in the Northern Hemisphere but an increase in the Southern Hemisphere. The antiphased pattern is largely caused by the change in orbital insolation during the present-day relative to MIS 3 interstadial, whereas by the weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the interstadial–stadial transition. However, there are obvious discrepancies in precipitation response and underlying mechanisms among individual monsoon domains and across different periods. Based on the moisture budget analysis, we indicate that the dynamic factor mainly explains the decreased monsoonal rainfall in the Northern Hemisphere during the present-day relative to the MIS 3 interstadial, whereas the thermodynamic term is largely responsible for the increased precipitation in the Southern Hemisphere. In contrast, the dynamic factor plays an important role in the variation of precipitation over all the monsoon zones from the MIS 3 interstadial to stadial states, with the thermodynamic term mainly contributing to the decreased tropical monsoonal precipitation in the colder Northern Hemisphere. Our results help improve the understanding of global monsoon variations under intermediate glacial climate conditions and shed light on their behaviors under potentially rapid climate change in the future.

Spatial distribution and deposits of cliffs along the Brazilian semi-arid coast

Cliffed coasts are common landforms found worldwide, but their precise spatial distribution and the nature of associated deposits may present regional gaps. This works presents a geological and geomorphological study of the Brazilian semi-arid coast (∼900 km), which was carried out on coastal cliffs with the aim of addressing three important knowledge gaps: i) spatial distribution of coastal cliffs, analyzed using topographic data from SRTM, LiDAR and field surveys, ii) the lithology and ages of the deposits, investigated through sedimentological analysis and OSL dating, and iii) origin of the cliffs, explored through relations with global and regional sea-level curves. The supply of terrigenous sediments to the western equatorial Atlantic coast was also considered. Coastal cliffs were identified along 235 km of the coastline, represented mainly by inactive cliffs (∼170 km). These cliffed coasts are composed mainly by poorly sorted siliciclastic sandstones and conglomerates, deposited in the Late Pleistocene. The depositional phases correlate with abrupt climate changes, due to pulses of terrigenous supply to the continental margin during the Heinrich Events. The formation of marine cliffs in these deposits occurred in the mid-Holocene, as sea level reached current elevation (msl) in ∼7 ka and 2-4 m above in ∼5.5 ka. This previous higher sea-level supports the widespread occurrence of inactive cliffs. The findings in this work contribute to i) improved mapping of coastal landforms, with higher resolution data demonstrating that previous works underestimated the presence of coastal cliffs; ii) the coastal cliffs are cut in Pleistocene sediments instead of older, Miocene deposits of the Barreiras Formation as previously assumed; iii) cliff formation due to marine erosion occurred in the mid- to- late Holocene; iv) the siliciclastic sediments that compose the cliffs are correlatable to marine sediments found in adjacent offshore areas, highlighting the role of abrupt global climatic changes in the Pleistocene in shaping contemporary coastal landscapes.

Late Holocene extraordinary palaeoflood events and their climatological context in the Shahe River, Huaihe River Basin, China

Palaeoflood events represent immediate hydrological responses to extreme climate change. A loess-paleosol sedimentary profile containing three overbank flood deposits (OFD1, OFD2, and OFD3) layers that recorded palaeoflood events was discovered on the platform scarp of the Shahe River, a tributary of the Huaihe River through a field investigation. Sediment samples were collected, and their physicochemical properties, as well as optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating, were analyzed. The results indicated that OFD1, OFD2, and OFD3 were indeed overbank flood deposits influenced by hydrodynamic forces. However, OFD3 and OFD1 consisted primarily of sand (>60 %) in terms of particle size composition, whereas paleosol (S0), transitional loess (Lt), and Malan loess (L1) mainly comprised silt (>70 %). Moreover, the magnetic susceptibility values of OFD3 and OFD1 exceeded those of S0, Lt, and L1. The contents of Na2O, K2O, and SiO2 were higher, while their contents of Al2O3 and Fe2O3 were lower in OFD3 and OFD1. These suggested that OFD3 and OFD1 may originate from weathered bedrock materials transported from the upper reaches of the Shahe River under significant hydrodynamic forces. The particle size composition, magnetic susceptibility value, and geochemical element composition of OFD2 were similar to those of S0, Lt, and L1 but diverged significantly from those of OFD1 and OFD3, indicating that OFD2 originated from loess and soil sediments widely distributed on both sides of the valley. Through OSL dating and stratigraphic chronological framework of the sedimentary profile, these three extraordinary palaeoflood events in the Huaihe River Basin occurred during the late Holocene, ∼1470 a. The analysis of high-resolution climate proxy indicators, atmospheric circulation factors, and global mean temperature demonstrated a direct correlation between these extreme flood events and abrupt climate changes during ∼ 1470 a. This period corresponded to severe climate deterioration during the Northern and Southern Dynasties (589–420 CE) in China. These findings are crucial for enhancing our understanding of regional hydrological climate responses to global changes.

Outburst floods and their impact on Chinese Neolithic cultures during the 4.2 ka BP event: Evidence from Dayeze Lake in the lower reaches of the Yellow River

Abrupt climate fluctuations between 4.2 and 3.5 ka BP, and in particular the 4.2 ka BP event, exerted a profound impact on the global ancient civilizations. However, hydroclimatic conditions within the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) regions during this event remain uncertain. Here we report a multi-proxy analysis of a sediment core obtained from Dayeze Lake in the lower reaches of the Yellow River in monsoonal China, to elucidate the hydroclimatic variabilities over the past 4.2 ka. Core intervals (4.2–3.5, 1.1–0.6 cal ka BP) containing high levels of sand fraction, low-frequency magnetic susceptibility and zirconium, and low levels of organic matter and calcium oxide, reflect outburst floods from the Yellow River. This is supported by the widespread fluvial deposits and slackwater deposits preserved in archaeological sites and loess-paleosol profiles from the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. In contrast, various climate records, such as lake level, pollen, and tree ring data, from the marginal regions of the ASM reflect widespread droughts during the same time period. This finding highlights the significant spatial heterogeneity of hydroclimate within ASM regions associated with the 4.2 ka BP event, which may be related to migrations of the monsoonal rain belt and the West Pacific subtropical high, as well as frequent El Niño–Southern Oscillation events. Referring to archaeological data, we conclude that the decline and collapse of Chinese Neolithic cultures were related to a pattern of droughts in the marginal regions of the ASM and floods in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.

Dynamic landscape response to Younger Dryas and earliest Holocene cooling events in the European Eastern Alps (Austria)

In classic loess areas research into dust deposition and concomitant environmental changes has a long history and numerous well-investigated loess-palaeosol sequences provide insights into Late Quaternary landscape responses to climatic change on orbital to centennial time scales. This contrasts with mountain regions, where an understanding of dust deposition under rapidly changing climatic and environmental conditions is much less developed. Here we describe two sediment records from the Austrian Alps that provide rare evidence for intramontane loess accumulation. Dust deposition has been numerically constrained to the Younger Dryas (YD) to earliest Holocene interval, making these sites the first proof of significant intramontane aeolian activity during this time interval in the Eastern Alps.At study site 1, located in the Northern Calcareous Alps, a loess layer 10–20 cm in thickness and laterally exposed over more than 300 m is sandwiched into an alluvial-fan succession. Two optically-stimulated luminescence ages of quartz and four radiocarbon ages of charcoals indicate loess accumulation during the Younger Dryas to earliest Holocene. This laterally extensive loess drape suggests much drier climatic conditions compared to today, which is corroborated by palynological investigations. Macro- and micro-charcoal particles within the loess indicate regional wildfires that might have exaggerated climatically induced sedimentary processes. The second site is a Mesolithic site located ∼30 km southeast of site 1. At site two, redeposited till and pebbly scree are sharply overlain by a few centimetre thick light-grey loess layer, which is capped by the archaeological living floor hosting 14C dated fireplaces suggesting human presence as early as 10.9 ± 0.2 cal ka BP. These radiocarbon ages in combination with single-grain IRSL dating of feldspar at site two suggests concomitant aeolian deposition at site 1 and 2.Recently, a widespread drape of loess deposited immediately subsequent to the LGM was described for the same sector of the Eastern Alps (Gild et al., 2018). The present study expands on these findings and provides evidence for the recurrence of loess deposition also during the YD to earliest Holocene, and suggests a highly sensitive response of the geomorphic system in mountain ranges to abrupt post-LGM climate fluctuations. We conclude that, in addition to moraine records of Alpine glaciers and speleothems that accurately chronicle Late Glacial temperature fluctuations, the spatio-temporal pattern of inner-Alpine loess deposits records the mode and sensitivity of landscape responses to such cooling events. Because such aeolian sediment layers can be redeposited or pedologically overprinted, they are often overlooked, and are thus still severely under-researched.

Characterisation of Dansgaard–Oeschger events in palaeoclimate time series using the matrix profile method

Abstract. Palaeoclimate time series, reflecting the state of Earth's climate in the distant past, occasionally display very large and rapid shifts showing abrupt climate variability. The identification and characterisation of these abrupt transitions in palaeoclimate records is of particular interest as this allows for understanding of millennial climate variability and the identification of potential tipping points in the context of current climate change. Methods that are able to characterise these events in an objective and automatic way, in a single time series, or across two proxy records are therefore of particular interest. In our study the matrix profile approach is used to describe Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events, abrupt warmings detected in the Greenland ice core, and Northern Hemisphere marine and continental records. The results indicate that canonical events DO-19 and DO-20, occurring at around 72 and 76 ka, are the most similar events over the past 110 000 years. These transitions are characterised by matching transitions corresponding to events DO-1, DO-8, and DO-12. They are abrupt, resulting in a rapid shift to warmer conditions, followed by a gradual return to cold conditions. The joint analysis of the δ18O and Ca2+ time series indicates that the transition corresponding to the DO-19 event is the most similar event across the two time series.

Paleo-redox conditions during the demise of a carbonate platform in the Tethyan ocean: Evidence from phosphatized and metals (Mn and Fe) rich hardgrounds

Phosphatized Mn and Fe rich hardgrounds and condensed pelagic deposits in carbonate platform successions are precious archives of abrupt climate and environmental changes (redox conditions and phosphorous availability) in the past shallow-water marine environment. While numerous examples have been documented in the Cretaceous successions of the Northern Tethys, the scarcity of similar descriptions from the southern margins suggests differences in sedimentary processes or preservation conditions.In this work we study three phosphatized Mn and Fe rich hardgrounds and pelagic condensed deposits that mark the repetitive demise of the Panormide carbonate platform developed in the Southern Tethyan margin during the Cretaceous. The integration of SEM-EDS, PXRD, and Micro-Raman spectroscopy data shows that these hardgrounds consist of fine-grained Fe (goethite and hematite) and Mn (birnessite and/or vernadite) oxides dispersed in a calcite and apatite matrix. Micro-Raman spectroscopy shows the presence of oxidized Mn species: Mn3+ and Mn4+. The oxidation of Mn2+ → Mn3+/4+ and/or Fe2+ → Fe3+ occurred at the sediment-seawater interface under oxic conditions (where both Mn and Fe oxidize) or suboxic conditions (where only Fe oxidizes). The paleoenvironmental perturbations that triggered the formation of both hardgrounds and condensed pelagic deposits were likely related to pCO2 cycle, upwelling of P-Mn-Fe-rich water masses, eutrophication and phosphatization related to the Cretaceous climate oscillations during the main Oceanic Anoxic Events. These perturbations were likely enhanced by tectonic activity. Moreover, we show that the formation of the phosphatized metals-rich hardgrounds and the recovery of shallow-water sedimentation occurred after long-term periods (6–12 Ma). Thus, the Panormide serves as a remarkable example of resilience amidst significant climatic changes.

Sea ice in the Nordic Seas: Greenland stadial to interstadial changes

Sea ice conditions in the eastern Fram Strait between 40 and 36.5 ka b2k (thousand years before the year 2000) are reconstructed in detail, based on biomarker analyses. Following extensive sea ice conditions around the Greenland Interstadial 9/Greenland Stadial 9 transition at 39.9 ka b2k, repeated polynya activity marked Greenland Stadial 9 in the eastern Fram Strait. Nearly perennial sea ice was observed around the Greenland Stadial 9/Greenland Interstadial 8 transition at 38.22 ka b2k, followed by a gradual establishment of seasonal sea ice cover over the research area during Greenland Interstadial 8. Previous studies highlighted sea ice retreat in the southeastern Nordic Seas as a driver of abrupt Greenland Stadial to Interstadial climate change. We document intervals with less sea ice in the eastern Fram Strait during Greenland Stadial 9 and Interstadial 8 than previously suggested. By mapping the variable sea ice extent during Greenland Stadial 9 and Interstadial 8, further constraints are detected that may help define the role of the Nordic Seas sea ice cover in driving abrupt climate change during glacial times.

The 4.2 ka event is not remarkable in the context of Holocene climate variability

The “4.2 ka event” is a commonly described abrupt climate excursion that occurred about 4200 years ago. However, the extent to which this event is coherent across regional and larger scales is unclear. To objectively assess climate excursions in the Holocene we compile 1142 paleoclimate datasets that span all continents and oceans and include a wide variety of archive and proxy types. We analyze these data to determine the timing, significance and spatial imprint of climate excursions using an objective method that quantifies local, regional and global significance. Site-level excursions in temperature and hydroclimate are common throughout the Holocene, but significant global-scale excursions are rare. The most prominent excursion occurred 8200 years ago, when cold and dry conditions formed a large, significant excursion centered in the North Atlantic. We find additional significant excursions between 1600 and 1000 years ago, which agree with tree-ring data and annual-scale paleoclimate reconstructions, adding confidence and context to our findings. In contrast, although some datasets show significant climate excursions 4200 years ago, they do not occur in large, coherent spatial regions. Consequently, like most other periods in the Holocene, the “4.2 ka event” is not a globally significant climate excursion.

Pre-hispanic wetland irrigation and metallurgy in the South Andean Altiplano (Intersalar Region, Bolivia, XIVth and XVth century CE)

The high-altitude Andean Altiplano has been subject to abrupt climate changes during the Holocene. The resulting impact on the hydrological cycle has obliged ancient societies to adapt and develop strategies to face droughts and sustain agropastoral activities. Here, we present the results of archaeological prospections together with the biogeochemical characterization of a well-dated core collected at Saitoco wetland in the arid southern Altiplano (Intersalar Region, Bolivia). Archaeological survey allowed the mapping of a network of channels collecting water from the surrounding mountains to the wetland, and the presence of small copper mines and metallurgical installations. Traces and major element concentrations and accumulation rates, together with elemental and isotopic characterization of organic matter (OM) (i.e., Corg and δ13Corg) in the wetland core have been used to document the evolution of the landscape in relation to climatic and anthropogenic pressure. While OM, bromine (Br), selenium (Se) and mercury (Hg) data were used to assess the variability of precipitations during the Late Holocene (4.2 ka BP to the present), local and regional mining activities have been reconstructed through the variations of lead (Pb), copper (Cu), and antimony (Sb). Our results show an abrupt change in OM composition during the 14th and 15th century CE, characterized by an abrupt shift in δ13Corg synchronous with a rise in Br, Se and Hg, testifying for the waterlogging of the wetland during a known arid period in the region. This change is attributed to anthropogenic transformation of the landscape through the irrigation of the wetland by channeling streams from the surrounding mountains. At the same time, a mining pollution signal was recorded supporting local Cu mining and metallurgy. The mining signal then reached its maximum values during the Inca and Colonial periods, which matches with reported enhanced mining activities in the region. From the colonial era onward, the wetland progressively dried up, likely resulting from the abandonment of the site. Through the combination of a biogeochemical record and archaeological prospections, this study provides evidences that societies of the arid Intersalar region have transformed their landscape and developed wetland irrigation and mining during the arid 14th and 15th century CE Period.

Exploring trends and variability of climate change indices in the agro‐ecological zones of Pakistan and their driving mechanisms

AbstractAnthropogenic climate change induced weather and climate extremes have led to frequent heat waves, droughts and floods threatening water resources and food security for an agricultural country like Pakistan. Despite their significance, the trends and variability of extreme temperature and precipitation indices and associated large‐scale drivers in the agro‐ecological zones (AEZs) of Pakistan remain unknown and need urgent attention because of abrupt climate change. The present study documents the spatiotemporal variations of climate change indices together with the elevation‐dependent variability trends over various AEZs in Pakistan for the period of 42 years (1979–2020). Nonparametric Mann–Kendall (MK) and Sen's slope (SS) estimator tests have been employed for trend estimation. Results indicated linearly increasing (warming) and statistically significant trends in Tmean, TNx, WSDI and TR20 whereas significant decreasing (cooling) trends in cool nights (−1.73 days·decade−1) and cold spells (−1.28 days·decade−1). The spatial distribution of temperature indices trends depicts robust warming over southwestern and central zones while cooling trends over northern zones. Regarding precipitation extremes, all indices have shown increasing (wetter) trends with a significant increase in PRCPTOT and RX5day. The stations in northern and subhumid AEZs received more precipitation compared to other zones. Elevation‐dependent trends in temperature indices exhibited a statistically significant positive (negative) relationship with cold (warm) tails. Most of the extreme precipitation indices have a weak, but positive association with elevation except SDII. The weakening of South Asian subtropical upper‐level jet by a high‐pressure system over northeast Pakistan resulted in amplified land surface temperatures. However, the spatial patterns of zonal winds indicate a trough over Pakistan's southern and central parts, with warmer sea‐surface temperature, low sea‐level pressure and easterly anomalies, favour moisture transport and precipitation in Pakistan. The outcomes of present study will be useful in addressing various climate‐induced disasters occurring in various AEZs of Pakistan.

Decoupled Hydroclimate of Central and Southwestern Iran Controlled by the Strength of Southerly‐Westerly Jets During Marine Isotope Stage 3

AbstractThe regional impact of abrupt glacial climate variability remains poorly constrained for arid southwestern Asia, particularly winter dynamics during Marine Isotope Stage 3, due to limited paleoarchives in the Middle East. Here, we present continuous speleothem records of δ18O and δ13C with robust chronologies for southwestern and central Iran, spanning ∼50–30 ka. Stable‐isotope signals in the two stalagmites are generally uncorrelated and do not exhibit a consistent response to Greenland stadials or interstadials; however, both show a positive δ18O excursion that coincides with Heinrich event 4. We explore the potential mechanisms for intermittent coupling of speleothem δ18O across Iran through isotope‐enabled atmospheric modeling outputs, from which we utilize the spatial δ18O gradient as a proxy for wintertime westerly versus southerly jet strength. Our results suggest that during Heinrich event 4 and several Greenland stadials, stronger westerly winds enhanced Mediterranean moisture contributions to both sites and reduced aridity in southern Iran.

An Inconsistent ENSO Response to Northern Hemisphere Stadials Over the Last Deglaciation

AbstractThe dynamics shaping the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation's (ENSO) response to present and future climate change remain unclear, partly due to limited paleo‐ENSO records spanning past abrupt climate events. Here, we measure Mg/Ca ratios on individual foraminifera to reconstruct east Pacific subsurface temperature variability, a proxy for ENSO variability, across the last 25,000 years, including the millennial‐scale events of the last deglaciation. Combining these data with proxy system model output reveals divergent ENSO responses to Northern Hemisphere stadials: enhanced variability during Heinrich Stadial 1 (H1) and reduced variability during the Younger Dryas (YD), relative to the Holocene. H1 ENSO likely intensified through meltwater‐induced changes to ocean/atmospheric circulation, a response observed in models, but the lack of a similar response during the YD challenges model simulations. We suggest the tropical Pacific mean state during H1 primed ENSO for larger fluctuations under meltwater forcing, whereas the YD mean state likely buffered against it.

Integrating dynamic modeling and decision support systems for sustainable urban planning in a changing climate

ABSTRACT The study introduces the Ant Lion Recurrent Climate Estimation (ALRCE) model for precise climate forecasting, emphasizing critical parameters like rainfall, humidity, temperature, wind speed, and dew point. Its primary goal is to mitigate natural hazard risks stemming from sudden climate shifts. Data from Surat city, Gujarat, including these features, is meticulously processed to train the ALRCE model. It employs an ant lion fitness function for analysis, particularly predicting rainfall and drought rates. Implemented in MATLAB, it demonstrates superior precision, accuracy, and risk reduction, validated for future climatic predictions from 2025 to 2050. Comparative analysis with existing techniques shows ALRCE outperforms, achieving 96.5% accuracy, 98% precision, 0.18838 RMSE, and 0.63 correlation coefficient. The study enhances accuracy by 2% post-optimization, highlighting ALRCE’s potential to significantly improve climate prediction and mitigate risks associated with abrupt climate changes.

High-resolution water temperature and salinity evolutions and associated drivers of the North Yellow Sea during the Late-Holocene

The mud deposit areas on continental shelf have developed in a relatively steady sedimentary condition with high sedimentation rates, thus rendering them ideal regions for exploring high-resolution paleo-sedimentary environment records. Since the sedimentary environment of the continental shelf is subject to the compound influence of multiple factors, the reconstruction of water salinity and temperature and comprehensive analysis of their response to global climate change remains challenging. Therefore, the present study characterized water salinity and temperature of the North Yellow Sea (NYS) using proxies, such as ratios of halogen elements of sediments and stable isotopic compositions of benthic foraminifera, and found the halogen elements of Cl in sediments was good proxy for water salinity. The evolutions of water salinity and temperature of the NYS for the past 3000 years were reconstructed, while the evolution stages and drivers of the sedimentary environment were explored. From approximately 3000 cal yr BP, the sea bottom salinity and temperature of the NYS were found to follow the same evolution trends predominantly consisting of the three stages: relatively low seawater salinity and temperature during 3000−2000 cal yr BP; relatively high seawater salinity and temperature during 2000−460 cal yr BP; and rapid changes of seawater salinity and temperature since 460 cal yr BP. The changes in seawater salinity and temperature of the NYS were largely driven by the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) as well as the influence of the Kuroshio Current. As the EAWM fluctuated, changes occurred in the flux of low temperature, low salinity coastal current water into the Yellow Sea, with concomitant changes in bottom temperature and salinity. Strengthening of the Kuroshio Current promoted the development of the Yellow Sea Warm Current, while the influx of warm, salty water into the Yellow Sea influenced the respective sea region. The abrupt global climate changes such as the “Little Ice Age” and the Medieval Warm Period first affected the East Asian monsoon, followed by the respective sea region.

Detection of Approaching Critical Transitions in Natural Systems Driven by Red Noise

Detection of critical slowing down (CSD) is the dominant avenue for anticipating critical transitions from noisy time-series data. Most commonly, changes in variance and lag-1 autocorrelation [AC(1)] are used as CSD indicators. However, these indicators will only produce reliable results if the noise driving the system is white and stationary. In the more realistic case of time-correlated red noise, increasing (decreasing) the correlation of the noise will lead to spurious (masked) alarms for both variance and AC(1). Here, we propose two new methods that can discriminate true CSD from possible changes in the driving noise characteristics. We focus on estimating changes in the linear restoring rate based on Langevin-type dynamics driven by either white or red noise. We assess the capacity of our new estimators to anticipate critical transitions and show that they perform significantly better than other existing methods both for continuous-time and discrete-time models. In addition to conceptual models, we apply our methods to climate model simulations of the termination of the African Humid Period. The estimations rule out spurious signals stemming from nonstationary noise characteristics and reveal a destabilization of the African climate system as the dynamical mechanism underlying this archetype of abrupt climate change in the past. Published by the American Physical Society 2024