Abrupt Change Analysis Research Articles

Time-scale analysis of abrupt changes corrupted by multiplicative noise

Multiplicative Abrupt Changes (ACs) have been considered in many applications. These applications include image processing (speckle) and random communication models (fading). Previous authors have shown that the Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) has good detection properties for ACs in additive noise. This work applies the CWT to AC detection in multiplicative noise. CWT translation invariance allows to define an AC signature. The problem then becomes signature detection in the time-scale domain. A second-order contrast criterion is defined as a measure of detection performance. This criterion depends upon the first- and second-order moments of the multiplicative process's CWT. An optimal wavelet (maximizing the contrast) is derived for an ideal step in white multiplicative noise. This wavelet is asymptotically optimal for smooth changes and can be approximated for small AC amplitudes by the Haar wavelet. Linear and quadratic suboptimal signature-based detectors are also studied. Closed-form threshold expressions are given as functions of the false alarm probability for three of the detectors. Detection performance is characterized using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves computed from Monte-Carlo simulations.

Weed Seed Bank and Vegetation at the Beginning and End of the First Cycle of a 4-Course Crop Rotation with Minimal Weed Control

Maize water suitability (MWS) model was developed at growth stage scale. Frequency and severity of drought were evaluated by combining MWS estimates and agricultural meteorological drought indexes. The MWS at each growth stage was calculated by using maize observational data and conventional meteorological data at 52 sites in Liaoning during the period from 1981 to 2010. Based on the climatic trend and abrupt change analysis, spatiotemporal dynamics of MWS were investigated. Meanwhile, occurrence of agricultural drought and its severity were also estimated. The results showed that the variation of MWS largely differed at different growth stages. Climatic abrupt change happened in 1994, 1996 and 1999 at the stages of emergence to seven leaves (II), jointing to tasseling (IV) and physiological maturity to maturity (VI). During the past 30 years, MWS showed an obvious increasing trend at the stages of sowing to emergence(I) , seven leaves to jointing(III), IV and tasseling to physiological maturity(V), while it showed a decreasing trend at the stages of II and VI, and that at VI stage was statistically significant. In addition, the climatic trend of MWS showed apparently spatial variability. The frequencies of drought at different severities varied with maize growth stages. Areas of high variability of MWS were located in the Northwest and South of Liaoning at the stages of I , II , III and VI, where were also the regions of high frequency of mid- and severe-drought. At the stages of IV and V, the frequency of drought was low and only light- and mid-drought occurred in few areas. In conclusion, the regional mean MWS could be capable to reasonably assess the agricultural drought in Liaoning at the regional scale.

Observation and analysis of abrupt changes in the interplanetary plasma velocity and magnetic field

This paper presents a limited study of the physical nature of abrupt changes in the interplanetary plasma velocity and magnetic field based on 19 day's data from the Pioneer 6 spacecraft. The period was chosen to include a high-velocity solar wind stream and low-velocity wind. Abrupt events were accepted for study if the sum of the energy density in the magnetic field and velocity changes was above a specified minimum. A statistical analysis of the events in the high-velocity solar wind stream shows that Alfvenic changes predominate. This conclusion is independent of whether steady state requirements are imposed on conditions before and after the event. Alfvenic changes do not dominate in the lower-speed wind. This study extends the plasma field evidence for outwardly propagating Alfvenic changes to time scales as small as 1 min (scale lengths on the order of 20,000 km).