Abnormal Returns Research Articles

Analysis of the Impact of the Merger on Trading Volume, Return and Abnormal Return of BSI Shares

This study discusses in trading volume, return and abnormal return of Bank Syariah Indonesia (BSI) stocks before and after merger. The purpose of this study was to determine the results of the analysis of differences in trading volume, stock return and abnormal returns before and after the merger of Bank Syariah Indonesia (BSI). The variables used are trading volume activity (TVA), stock returns and abnormal returns. The sample in this study was 10 days before and 10 days after the merger of PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk. As for the sampling technique using Purposive Sampling. The results of this study are based on results of the different Paired Sample T Test on the TVA variable showing the Sig. (2-tailed) value of 0,002 < 0,05. Based on the results of the Wilcoxon different test, the value Sig. (2-tailed) value on the stock return variable was 0,114 > 0,05, then Sig. (2-tailed) value on the stock abnormal return variable was 0,139 > 0,05. So it can be stated that there are differences in Bank Syariah Indonesia (BSI) before and after the merger based on the TVA variable and there are no difference in Bank Syariah Indonesia (BSI) before and after the merger based on the return and abnormal stock returns variables.

Investor demand for stocks in Initial Public Offerings and their price behaviour after debut. Evidence from Poland

This article investigates the relationship between investor demand during an IPO and the long-term behaviour of share prices following a company’s stock market debut. Specifically, the study examines the impact of the demand observed during the public offering and the size of the offering on abnormal return rates for a sample of 116 IPOs on the Warsaw Stock Exchange between 2012 and mid-2022. The primary research hypothesis tests whether the medians of abnormal return rates, influenced by these factors, are statistically significant over several time intervals ranging from 3 to 12 months after the debut. The findings confirm that certain information from the completed public offering, particularly the relatively low number of new shares offered, plays a significant role in predicting abnormal changes in share prices during these periods. This research offers valuable insights for investors, emphasising the key factors within the IPO process that can influence the trajectory of share prices following a company’s market debut.

Insider Trading and CEO Pay-Gap Induced Turnover

We explore how insider trading returns, disparities in executive pay, and CEO turnover are interrelated. Our findings reveal both independent and interactive effects for insider trading returns, the CEO pay gap, and the likelihood of CEO turnover. First, an increase in abnormal returns from insider purchases lowers the probability of a CEO’s turnover, while an increase in abnormal returns from insider sales increases the likelihood of a CEO’s dismissal. Second, the CEO pay gap negatively affects the probability of CEO turnover for insider purchases, but it does not have a similar effect on insider sales. Third, the interaction between insider abnormal returns and any CEO pay disparity influences the impact of these returns on CEO turnover. Specifically, this interaction diminishes the positive effect of insider selling on the probability of a CEO’s dismissal, offsets the negative effect of insider purchasing on CEO dismissal, and, finally, amplifies the negative impact of CEO pay disparity on the probability of a CEO’s dismissal during periods witnessing insider purchases.

Multivariate Regression Analysis of the Impact of Open Market Share Repurchase Activity on the Malaysian Market

This research thesis revolves around the need to understand the relationship between share repurchases and the share price behavior of companies listed on Bursa Malaysia on a more recent basis given the economic stability in Malaysia and throughout the world from 2017 to 2021. It started in the West and reached maturity in the 1980s in the United States, but it only began in Malaysia in the 1990s. The studies of share repurchase are still considered an infant in Malaysia as in other countries throughout the world, companies pursue share repurchases for several reasons mainly to signal undervaluation, reward shareholders, defend against the takeover, utilize financial resources efficiently, and many more motives that are interesting for researchers to look at. Unlike other studies that look at announcement dates, since an announcement does not mean the companies will implement the transactions, this research is important since it looks at and analyzes the actual effective repurchase day done by established firms which is are most crucial aspect in analyzing the consequences and the results are that it shows positive abnormal mean returns for most of the companies. Event study methodology was used since this is the best empirical research method and as empirical evidence to analyze abnormal returns from all the other studies. The days observed are 120 days before and after the announcement. Returns for the estimation window, event window (repurchase day), and post-event window were analyzed to see the effects of price movement on repurchase activities at Bursa Malaysia (BSKL).

Market Reaction to ESG Information Disclosure A Case Study of Midea Group

Abstract: As global environmental issues become increasingly severe, investors are paying more attention to corporate sustainability. They realize that focusing solely on financial performance is insufficient; a company's environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance must also be considered. In China, with the goal of carbon neutrality highlighting the importance of ESG, concepts such as ESG investment, reporting, and rating are flourishing. Corporate ESG actions are becoming a new focal point for investors. This paper takes the ESG information disclosure of Midea Group as a case study, using an event study model to explore the stability of the companys stock price and the variation in its returns during the event window, thus analyzing the market's short-term reaction to ESG information. The study finds that the ESG reports issued by Midea Group have a positive impact on the stock market to some extent, significantly reducing stock price volatility and inducing a positive trend in abnormal returns.

The American Inventors Protection Act and the staggered market reaction to patent grants

Starting in December 2000, the American Inventors Protection Act requires patent applications to be announced 18 months after filing rather than when the patent is granted. We document that while the application and the patent grant announcements are associated with positive abnormal returns, this staggered information flow reduces the reaction to patent grants post-2001. Furthermore, more innovative patents obtain larger abnormal returns around both the patent grant and the application announcement. Returns to less innovative patents, however, concentrate on the grant date, consistent with the market perceiving the applications as less likely to be approved.

The Addition of New Payment Method and Shareholder Value: Evidence From Cryptocurrency Adoption

ABSTRACT Despite the growing adoption of cryptocurrencies as a payment method, the literature lacks a comprehensive exploration of its performance outcome. To address this gap, authors examine the impact of firms’ adoption of cryptocurrencies as a payment method on shareholder value. Employing event study methodology, authors analyze the effect of cryptocurrency adoption announcements made by 27 U.S. firms between 2013 and 2020 on shareholder value. The results indicate that cryptocurrency adoption leads to positive abnormal returns, with an average of 0.65% on the announcement day. Further analysis reveals that firms’ advertising intensity amplifies the positive impact of cryptocurrency adoption on shareholder value. Additionally, non-retail firms tend to receive greater benefits from cryptocurrency adoption compared to retail firms.

Unveiling Anomalies in Terrain Elevation Products from Spaceborne Full-Waveform LiDAR over Forested Areas

Anomalies displaying significant deviations between terrain elevation products acquired from spaceborne full-waveform LiDAR and reference elevations are frequently observed in assessment studies. While the predominant focus is on “normal” data, recognizing anomalies within datasets obtained from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) and the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) is essential for a comprehensive understanding of widely used spaceborne full-waveform data, which not only facilitates optimal data utilization but also enhances the exploration of potential applications. Nevertheless, our comprehension of anomalies remains limited as they have received scant specific attention. Diverging from prevalent practices of directly eliminating outliers, we conducted a targeted exploration of anomalies in forested areas using both transmitted and return waveforms from the GLAS and the GEDI in conjunction with airborne LiDAR point cloud data. We unveiled that elevation anomalies stem not from the transmitted pulses or product algorithms, but rather from scattering sources. We further observed similarities between the GLAS and the GEDI despite their considerable disparities in sensor parameters, with the waveforms characterized by a low signal-to-noise ratio and a near exponential decay in return energy; specifically, return signals of anomalies originated from clouds rather than the land surface. This discovery underscores the potential of deriving cloud-top height from spaceborne full-waveform LiDAR missions, particularly the GEDI, suggesting promising prospects for applying GEDI data in atmospheric science—an area that has received scant attention thus far. To mitigate the impact of abnormal return waveforms on diverse land surface studies, we strongly recommend incorporating spaceborne LiDAR-offered terrain elevation in data filtering by establishing an elevation-difference threshold against a reference elevation. This is especially vital for studies concerning forest parameters due to potential cloud interference, yet a consensus has not been reached within the community.

Industrial Policy Environment and Private Equity Placement: Evidence from Chinese Real Estate Firms

Over the past four decades, China’s real estate industry has experienced rapid growth, accompanied by frequent regulatory interventions. These shifts present an ideal context for examining the characteristics of private equity placements (PEPs) under varying industrial policy environments. This study examines the PEPs of Chinese real estate firms from 2006 to 2023, calculating the cumulative abnormal returns during announcement periods and the transaction discounts across various regulatory phases. The analysis reveals significant positive announcement effects, even in times of policy tightening, with these effects becoming more pronounced during periods of policy relaxation. However, regression analyses suggest that the policy environment does not significantly impact the announcement effects. Contrary to traditional views, PEP discounts tend to be shallower during policy tightening and deeper during policy loosening. Further analysis indicates that investors are willing to accept smaller discounts in exchange for more valuable investment opportunities.

Control risk premium: Dual‐class shares, family ownership, and minority investor returns

AbstractDespite exhibiting significant valuation discounts, dual‐class shares surged from 1% of initial public offerings in 1980 to nearly half in recent years. This study investigates the potential harm of such structures by examining the identity and returns of minority shareholders. We find that sophisticated investors predominantly hold low‐voting shares. Furthermore, outside shareholders earn a positive risk premium rather than suffering low returns, consistent with the hypothesis that market prices compensate for the risk associated with dual‐class structures. Our analysis reveals that such structures are confounded with family control, which is present in 89% of dual‐class firms in the Russell 3000. Interestingly, single‐class firms with family shareholders also enjoy positive abnormal returns, implying minority shareholders care more about the presence of a controlling shareholder than a specific voting structure. This research contributes to the ongoing debate on restricting dual‐class structures by highlighting the complex relationship between ownership, control, and shareholder returns.

How artificial intelligence incidents affect banks and financial services firms? A study of five firms

We investigate the impact of AI incidents on banking and the financial industries. By analyzing five U.S. banks and financial services firms, we find that the average short-term Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CARs) loss of AI incidents is -21.04 % and the negative impact can spread out to the financial industry with a three-day loss of -0.13 %. Compared to firms without AI incidents, banks and financial services firms with AI incidents have higher bankruptcy risk and lower operational cash flows. To our knowledge, this is the first study analyzing the AI incident impact on the performance of banks and financial services firms.

The profits vs protests: Corporate value dynamics amidst activist uproar

We examine the impact of student protests and geopolitical events on the firms targeted for divestment during the 2023–2024 Israel–Hamas conflict. Utilizing event study methodology, we analyze cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) across eight key conflict periods. We find positive CARs for targeted firms at the onset of the conflict, but significant negative CARs are reported as student protests escalated. This provides evidence of the tangible impacts of public pressure campaigns on market perceptions and valuations in the short-run. However, we observe positive CARs after student protests subsided which suggests potential limitations to the sustained impact of such activism and shows the market's capacity to normalize extraordinary events over time.

Comparative Analysis Of Stock Prices, Stock Returns, And Stock Liquidity Before And After The Stock Split In Banking Companies Listed On The Idx In 2021-2023

This research seeks to compare stock prices, abnormal returns (as a proxy for stock returns), and trading volume activity (TVA) (as a proxy for liquidity levels) before and after a stock split. Utilizing an event study approach, observations were conducted on the average stock prices, abnormal returns, and TVA for five days before and five days after the stock split. Secondary data were employed with purposive sampling techniques. The data utilized in this study comprise the stock split announcement dates, which are treated as the event date (t+0), the daily closing stock prices of companies undergoing stock splits within the observation period, the daily traded share volume, the total shares outstanding, and the daily Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG). The sample consisted of three banking companies listed on the IDX that carried out stock splits between 2021 and 2023. The results reveal no significant differences in stock prices, abnormal returns, and TVA before and after the stock split.

Risk factors-adjusted performance and persistence during the post-subprime crisis period: evidence from Indian mutual fund industry

PurposeThe main objective of the paper is to find evidence of abnormal returns and performance persistence of actively managed equity funds in the Indian context on an annual basis during the post-subprime crisis period between 2009 and 10 and 2019 and 2020.Design/methodology/approachThe study is exploratory and empirical, used daily net asset value (NAV) of 180 equity funds for 10 years and applied the risk-adjusted, Jensen's (1968) single-factor, Fama and French's (1993) three-factor model and Carhart's (1997) four-factor model to evaluate the performance. The performance persistence has been tested using cross-section regression (Bollen and Busse, 2005), the non-parametric contingency approach, along with the robustness measure, i.e. Malkiel's (1995) Z-score, Brown and Goetzmann's (1995) cross-product ratio (CPR) and Kahn and Rudd's (1995) χ2 value.FindingsThe results show that the Indian equity funds are unable to generate abnormal returns, and the size, value and momentum strategies applied by the fund managers in generating abnormal returns do not work effectively. However, funds provide strong evidence of significant performance persistence on an annual basis in the short-term, mid-term and long-term periods. Both parametric as well as non-parametric tests provide identical evidence of persistence, and the performance persistence is independent of the choice of models, as all the models (i.e. two, three or four-factor models) provide significant evidence of persistence.Research limitations/implicationsThough the study is comprehensive and covered a longer period, there is a scope for future research by examining the influence of fund characteristics, fund rating and macroeconomic factors on performance and persistence. It can be extended over to a longer period covering the post-COVID-19 period, a larger sample size and a comparative study of Indian and foreign mutual funds (MFs).Practical implicationsThe outcomes of this research paper can help wealth-maximizing investors in the identification of persistent equity funds and can apply the previous period’s performance information as a useful investment strategy to generate higher returns in the future. We believe that these outcomes will have significant ramifications for all MF stakeholders and policymakers, especially for the Indian industry in ensuring and establishing the credibility of MF managers, in providing better returns as well as to make MF investment more attractive to Indian retail investors.Originality/valueDespite the exponential growth in the Indian MF industry, limited evidence is available on performance and persistence covering a large sample size during the post-sub-prime crisis period using different return models and parametric and non-parametric approaches. The study is based on the daily data set of a larger sample size representing all the Asset Management Company (AMC) and the longer period following the post-subprime crises, which affected capital flows significantly. Moreover, the application of all the measures enables us to understand performance persistence in a larger context.

Putting the Price in Asset Pricing

ABSTRACTWe propose a novel way to estimate a portfolio's abnormal price, the percentage gap between price and the present value of dividends computed with a chosen asset pricing model. Our method, based on a novel identity, resembles the time‐series estimator of abnormal returns, avoids the issues in alternative approaches, and clarifies the role of risk and mispricing in long‐horizon returns. We apply our techniques to study the cross‐section of price levels relative to the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and find that a single characteristic, adjusted value, provides a parsimonious model of CAPM‐implied abnormal price.

Does increased monitoring enhance the credibility of financial reports? Evidence of auditing semi‐annual financial statements

AbstractDue to several financial scandals of Taiwan‐listed foreign firms (known as KY firms), the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission requires KY firms to disclose audited semi‐annual financial statements, which were reviewed before. Using the event study, we find higher cumulative abnormal returns for KY firms around the regulation announcement, suggesting the market's positive attitude towards the increase in the assurance level of semi‐annual financial statements. In addition, we apply a difference‐in‐differences test and find the improvement in earnings response coefficients, showing the market's increased perception of audit quality. Our findings should be of interest to regulators, practitioners, and researchers.

Insider Trading before Earnings News: The Role of Executive Pay Disparity

We investigate how executive pay disparity affects insider profits around earnings news. Our findings reveal that high pay disparity is linked to higher abnormal returns from insider purchases before positive news, suggesting insiders exploit good news for greater gains. Conversely, it is associated with lower abnormal returns from insider sales before negative news, indicating less benefit from such sales. These insights highlight the influence of pay disparity on insider trading and underscore the importance of understanding this dynamic to improve decision-making and reduce misuse of insider information.

Mitigating the Negative Financial Effects of Extreme Weather Events Through Supply Chain Analytics

Despite extensive discussions on the value of integrating big data analytics into supply chains, or supply chain analytics (SCA) for short, it remains unclear whether SCA can effectively help firms mitigate the negative financial impacts of extreme weather events. To address this important research question, we first employed the event study methodology to quantify extreme weather events’ financial effects in terms of abnormal stock returns. Then, we compared the difference in abnormal stock returns between firms that have adopted SCA and matched control firms without SCA adoption. Our event study results indicate that, although these events affected firms’ stock returns negatively, the effects were less severe for firms with (rather than without) SCA adoption. Furthermore, our results suggest that firms having more stable innovation outputs will reap greater benefits from SCA in the extreme weather context. Conversely, firms facing more unstable market demands will benefit more from SCA in the extreme weather context. Overall, our research demonstrates the mitigating role played by SCA during extreme weather events but also reveals how this mitigating role is contingent on the firm’s internal and external operating uncertainties.

The impact of ESG distance on mergers and acquisitions

In this study, we utilize the most recent ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) data to calculate the ESG distance between acquiring and target firms, subsequently assessing its impact on merger outcomes. Our analysis suggests that deals with a larger ESG distance are associated with reduced cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) around the deal announcements. We find that, following the Kyoto Protocol in 2005, counterparties with larger ESG distances are less favored by investors. This suggests that the market perceives significant ESG distance as a potential impediment to seamless post-merger integration. Notably, a pronounced acquirer-target ESG distance diminishes the propensity for mergers, especially when target firms with more bargaining power during the negotiation. In the long-term performance of acquiring firms, we discern that ESG disparity reduces firm performance and increases crash risk.

The dark side of well-connected directors: Evidence from private firm acquisitions

We adopt a difference-in-difference approach to investigate the relationship between the board network and the acquirer's cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) by examining the influence of the directors' sudden death or retirement. We find that firms experiencing the departure of well-connected directors tend to obtain higher CAR when acquiring private targets. This suggests that well-connected directors may reduce the values of mergers and acquisitions (M&A). However, acquirers with greater external monitoring can reduce this negative effect. We also find that these directors with prior acquisition experience are more likely to secure board positions. In summary, these results support the agency problem that well-connected directors tend to make more M&A deals for their private benefits.