Abnormalities in the Tri-Carboxylic-Acid (TCA) cycle have been documented in dementia. Through network analysis, TCA cycle metabolites could indirectly reflect known dementia-related abnormalities in biochemical pathways, and key metabolites might be associated with prognosis. This study analyzed TCA cycle metabolites as predictors of cognitive decline in a mild dementia cohort and explored potential interactions with the diagnosis of Lewy Body Dementia (LBD) or Alzheimer's Disease (AD) and APOE-ε4 genotype. We included 145 mild dementia patients (LBD = 59; AD = 86). Serum TCA cycle metabolites were analyzed at baseline, and partial correlation networks were conducted. Cognitive performance was measured annually over 5-years with the Mini-mental State Examination. Longitudinal mixed-effects Tobit models evaluated each baseline metabolite as a predictor of 5-years cognitive decline. APOE-ε4 and diagnosis interactions were explored. Results showed comparable metabolite concentrations in LBD and AD. Multiple testing corrected networks showed larger coefficients for a negative correlation between pyruvate – succinate and positive correlations between fumarate – malate and citrate – Isocitrate in both LBD and AD. In the total sample, adjusted mixed models showed significant associations between baseline citrate concentration and longitudinal MMSE scores. In APOE-ε4 carriers, baseline isocitrate predicted MMSE scores. We conclude that, in mild dementia, serum citrate concentrations could be associated with subsequent cognitive decline, as well as isocitrate concentrations in APOE-ε4 carriers. Downregulation of enzymatic activity in the first half of the TCA cycle (decarboxylating dehydrogenases), with upregulation in the latter half (dehydrogenases only), might be indirectly reflected in serum TCA cycle metabolites' networks.
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