30-day Mortality In Patients Research Articles

Adverse postoperative outcomes in elderly patients with sarcopenia

PurposeNo study has compared 30-day and 90-day adverse postoperative outcomes between old-age patients with and those without sarcopenia.Patients and methodsWe categorize elderly patients receiving major surgery into two groups according to the presence or absence of preoperative sarcopenia that were matched at a 1:4 ratio through propensity score matching (PSM). We analyzed 30-day or 90-day adverse postoperative outcomes and mortality in patients with and without sarcopenia receiving major surgery.ResultsMultivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that the patients with preoperative sarcopenia were at significantly higher risk of 30-day postoperative mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]. = 1.25; 95% confidence interval [CI]. = 1.03–1.52) and 30-day major complications such as postoperative pneumonia (aOR = 1.15; 95% CI = 1.00-1.40), postoperative bleeding (aOR = 2.18; 95% CI = 1.04–4.57), septicemia (aOR = 1.31; 95% CI = 1.03–1.66), and overall complications (aOR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.00-1.46). In addition, surgical patients with sarcopenia were at significantly higher risk of 90-day postoperative mortality (aOR = 1.50; 95% CI = 1.29–1.74) and 90-day major complications such as pneumonia (aOR = 1.27; 95% CI = 1.10–1.47), postoperative bleeding (aOR = 1.90; 95% CI = 1.04–3.48), septicemia (aOR = 1.52; 95% CI = 1.28–1.82), and overall complications (aOR = 1.24; 95% CI = 1.08–1.42).ConclusionsSarcopenia is an independent risk factor for 30-day and 90-day adverse postoperative outcomes such as pneumonia, postoperative bleeding, and septicemia and increases 30-day and 90-day postoperative mortality among patients receiving major surgery.Condensed abstractNo study has compared 30-day and 90-day adverse postoperative outcomes between patients with and those without sarcopenia. We conducted a propensity score?matched (PSM) population-based cohort study to investigate the adverse postoperative outcomes and mortality in patients undergoing major elective surgery with preoperative sarcopenia versus those without preoperative sarcopenia. We demonstrated that sarcopenia is an independent risk factor for 30-day and 90-day adverse postoperative outcomes, such as postoperative pneumonia, bleeding, septicemia, and mortality after major surgery. Therefore, surgeons and anesthesiologists should attempt to correct preoperative sarcopenia, swallowing function, and respiratory muscle training before elective surgery to reduce postoperative complications that contribute to the decrease in surgical mortality.

Assessing the predictive value of the Risk Analysis Index for short-term outcomes in acute spinal cord injury surgery.

Acute traumatic spinal cord injury (tSCI) requires rapid surgical intervention to maximize neurological function. Older patients comprise an increasingly larger proportion of SCI patients annually, necessitating accurate preoperative risk stratification tools. This study utilized a frailty-based preoperative risk stratification score to predict adverse events following non-elective neurosurgical intervention for acute tSCI patients. The National Inpatient Sample (NIS) was queried for acute tSCI patients aged ≥18 who underwent spine surgery in 2019-2020. The Risk Analysis Index (RAI) was implemented with crosstabulation, to analyze frailty scores with the following binary outcome measures: overall complications, non-home discharge (NHD), extended length of stay (eLOS) (>75th percentile), and mortality. Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) analysis assessed the discriminative threshold of RAI compared to the modified 5-item Frailty Index (mFI-5) for NHD and 30-day mortality. A total of 9995 SCI patients underwent non-elective spine surgery. There were 1525 perioperative complications (15.3%) and 510 (5.1%) mortalities. An increasing RAI score was significantly associated with increasing postoperative mortality rates: RAI 0-20 (1.5%, N.=45), RAI 21-30 (3.4%, N.=110), RAI 31-40 (6.8%, N.=115), and RAI>41 (11.8%, N.=240) (P<0.001). RAI demonstrated superior discrimination compared to the mFI-5 for mortality and NHD with a C-statistic >0.72. Increasing frailty, as measured by RAI, was a reliable predictor of non-home discharge and 30-day mortality for SCI patients who underwent non-elective spinal surgery and RAI demonstrated superior discrimination compared to the mFI-5 for NHD and mortality.

Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and short-term mortality risk in elderly acute medical patients admitted to a University Hospital Emergency Department.

Early identification of patients with a poorer prognosis in the Emergency Department (ED) is crucial for prompt treatment and resource allocation. We investigated the relationship between the Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) and 30-day mortality in elderly acute medical patients. Prospective single-center cohort study including consecutive patients admitted to the ED. Inclusion criteria were age > 65years and medical condition as the cause of ED access. Exclusion criteria were patients admitted for traumatic injuries or non-traumatic surgical diseases. ROC analysis was used to set the best cut-off of the NLR for mortality. 953 patients were included and 142 (14.9%) died during follow-up. ROC analysis showed a good predictive value of the NLR with an AUC 0.70, 95%CI 0.67-0.73 (p < 0.001) and identified a NLR > 8 as the best cut-off. Patients with NLR > 8 had a more serious triage code (72.6% had a triage code ≤ 2) and an increased heart rate and body temperature. They more often presented with dyspnea, abdominal pain, falls and vomiting. They also were characterized by an increase in urea, creatinine, white blood cells, neutrophils, fibrinogen, D-dimer, glycemia, CRP, LDH and transaminases and by a decrease in eGFR, of lymphocytes and monocytes. Multivariable logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the NLR remained associated with mortality after adjustment for confounders (Odds ratio 2.563, 95%CI 1.595-4.118, p < 0.001). Patients with NLR > 8 showed a higher mortality rate. NLR is an easy and inexpensive tool that may be used for risk stratification in the ED. The results of this study need to be validated in larger external cohorts.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Plasma Renin Concentration and Renin Activity in Predicting Mortality and Kidney Outcomes in Patients With Septic Shock and Hypoperfusion or Hypotension: A Multicenter, Prospective, Observational Study.

Lactate is a commonly used biomarker for sepsis, although it has limitations in certain cases, suggesting the need for novel biomarkers. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of plasma renin concentration and renin activity for mortality and kidney outcomes in patients with sepsis with hypoperfusion or hypotension. This was a multicenter, prospective, observational study of 117 patients with septic shock treated at three tertiary emergency departments between September 2021 and October 2022. The accuracy of renin activity, renin, and lactate concentrations in predicting 28-day mortality, acute kidney injury (AKI), and renal replacement requirement was assessed using the area under the ROC curve (AUC) analysis. The AUCs of initial renin activity, renin, and lactate concentrations for predicting 28-day mortality were 0.66 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55-0.77), 0.63 (95% CI, 0.52-0.75), and 0.65 (95% CI, 0.53-0.77), respectively, and those at 24 hrs were 0.74 (95% CI, 0.62-0.86), 0.70 (95% CI, 0.56-0.83), and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.54-0.79). Renin concentrations and renin activity outperformed initial lactate concentrations in predicting AKI within 14 days. The AUCs of renin and lactate concentrations were 0.71 (95% CI, 0.61-0.80) and 0.57 (95% CI, 0.46-0.67), respectively (P=0.030). The AUC of renin activity (0.70; 95% CI, 0.60-0.80) was also higher than that of lactate concentration (P=0.044). Renin concentration and renin activity show comparable performance to lactate concentration in predicting 28-day mortality in patients with septic shock but superior performance in predicting AKI.

Association between Albumin-Corrected Anion Gap and Mortality in Patients with Cardiogenic Shock.

Cardiogenic shock (CS) is a critical illness with a high mortality rate in clinical practice. Although some biomarkers have been found to be associated with mortality in patients suffering from CS in previous studies. The albumin-corrected anion gap (ACAG) has not been studied in depth. Our study aimed to explore the relationship between ACAG and mortality in patients with CS. All baseline data was extracted from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV version: 2.0 (MIMIC-IV). According to the prognosis at 30 days of follow-up, they were divided into survivors and non-survivors groups. The survival curves between the two groups were drawn using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test. Valid factors were selected using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic analysis model. Analysis was performed to investigate the relationship between mortality and all enrolled patients using restricted cubic spline (RCS) and Cox proportional hazards models. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the predictive ability of ACAG. Evaluation of final result stability using sensitivity analysis. 839 cases were selected to meet the inclusion criteria and categorized into survivors and non-survivors groups in the final analysis. The ACAG value measured for the first time at the time of admission was selected as the research object. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival curves showed that cumulative 30- and 90-day survival decreased progressively with elevated ACAG (p 0.001), and multifactorial Cox regression analyses showed ACAG to be an independent risk factor for increased 30- and 90-day mortality in patients suffering from CS (p 0.05). RCS curves revealed that all-cause mortality in this group of patients increased with increasing ACAG ( 2 = 5.830, p = 0.120). The ROC curve showed that the best cutoff value for ACAG for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with CS was 22.625, with a sensitivity of 44.0% and a specificity of 74.7%. The relationship between ACAG and CS short-term mortality remained stable in all sensitivity analyses (All p 0.05). The ACAG is an independent risk factor for 30- and 90-day mortality in CS patients and predicts poor clinical outcomes in CS patients. According to our study, elevated ACAG at admission, especially when ACAG 20 mmol/L, was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in CS.

Endogenous serum glucocorticoid concentrations, steroidogenic enzyme activity, and 90-day mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19: an observational cohort study.

In the context of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) illness, we examined endogenous glucocorticoid concentrations, steroidogenic enzyme activity, and their correlation with inflammation and patient outcomes. This observational study included 125 hospitalized COVID-19 patients and 101 healthy individuals as a reference group. We utilized LC-MS to assess serum concentrations of 11-deoxycortisol, cortisol, and cortisone, as well as activities of steroidogenic enzymes (11β-hydroxylase and 11β-hydroxysteroid-dehydrogenase type 1). Cox proportional hazards regression analysis and competing risk analysis were employed to analyze associations between glucocorticoid concentrations and outcomes, adjusting for relevant factors. In patients with COVID-19, cortisol concentrations were higher and cortisone concentrations were lower compared to the reference group, while 11-deoxycortisol concentrations were similar. Steroidogenic enzyme activity favored cortisol production. Correlations between glucocorticoid concentrations and inflammatory markers were low. A doubling in concentrations cortisol, was associated with increased 90-day mortality and mechanical ventilation (HR: 2.40 95% CI: (1.03-5.59) , P = 0.042 and HR: 3.83 (1.19-12.31), P = 0.024). A doubling in concentrations of 11-deoxycortisol was also associated to mortality (HR: 1.32 (1.05-1.67), P = 0.018), whereas concentrations of cortisone were associated with mechanical ventilation (HR: 5.09 (1.49-17.40), P = 0.009). In conclusion, serum concentrations of glucocorticoid metabolites were altered in patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19, and steroidogenic enzyme activity resulting in the conversion of cortisone to biologically active cortisol was preserved, thus not favoring critical-illness-related corticosteroid insufficiency at the enzymatic level. Glucocorticoid release did not counterbalance the hyperinflammatory state in patients with severe COVID-19. High serum concentrations of 11-deoxycortisol and cortisol were associated with 90-day mortality, and high serum concentrations of cortisol and cortisone were associated with mechanical ventilation.

Prediction of 30-day in-hospital mortality in older UGIB patients using a simplified risk score and comparison with AIMS65 score

BackgroundUpper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in older patients is associated with substantial in-hospital morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to develop and validate a simplified risk score for predicting 30-day in-hospital mortality in this population.MethodsA retrospective analysis was conducted on data from 1899 UGIB patients aged ≥ 65 years admitted to a single medical center between January 2010 and December 2019. An additional cohort of 330 patients admitted from January 2020 to October 2021 was used for external validation. Variable selection was performed using five distinct methods, and models were generated using generalized linear models, random forest, support vector machine, and k-nearest neighbors approaches. The developed score, “ABCAP,” incorporated Albumin < 30 g/L, Blood Urea Nitrogen (BUN) > 7.5 mmol/L, Cancer presence, Altered mental status, and Pulse rate > 100/min, each assigned a score of 1. Internal and external validation procedures compared the ABCAP score with the AIMS65 score.ResultsIn internal validation, the ABCAP score demonstrated robust predictive capability with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.878 (95% CI: 0.824–0.932), which was significantly better than the AIMS65 score (AUC: 0.827, 95% CI: 0.751–0.904), as revealed by the DeLong test (p = 0.048). External validation of the ABCAP score resulted in an AUC of 0.799 (95% CI: 0.709–0.889), while the AIMS65 score yielded an AUC of 0.743 (95% CI: 0.647–0.838), with no significant difference between the two scores based on the DeLong test (p = 0.16). However, the ABCAP score at the 3–5 score level demonstrated superior performance in identifying high-risk patients compared to the AIMS65 score. This score exhibited consistent predictive accuracy across variceal and non-variceal UGIB subgroups.ConclusionsThe ABCAP score incorporates easily obtained clinical variables and demonstrates promising predictive ability for 30-day in-hospital mortality in older UGIB patients. It allows effective mortality risk stratification and showed slightly better performance than the AIMS65 score. Further cohort validation is required to confirm generalizability.

The association between lactate dehydrogenase to serum albumin ratio and in-hospital mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism: a retrospective analysis of the MIMIC-IV database.

Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and albumin (ALB) were found to be significantly correlated with mortality in pulmonary embolism (PE) patients. However, data regarding the LDH/ALB ratio (LAR) in patients with acute PE are scanty. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the association between LAR and the risk of mortality in patients with acute PE. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on patients with acute PE represented in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and calibration curve were used to assess the accuracy of the LAR for predicting mortality in patients with acute PE. We utilized Cox regression analysis to determine adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Survival curves were used to evaluate a connection between the LAR and prognosis in patients with acute PE. The study comprised 581 patients, and the 30-day all-cause mortality rate was 7.7%. We observed a higher LAR in the non-survival group compared to the surviving group (21.24 ± 21.22 vs. 8.99 ± 7.86, p < 0.0001). The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients with an elevated LAR had a significantly lower likelihood of surviving the 30-day mortality compared to those with a low LAR. Cox regression analysis showed that LAR (HR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.03-1.05) might have associations with 30-day mortality in patients with acute PE. This result was supported by sensitivity analyses. According to the results of the ROC curve analysis, the LAR's prediction of 30-day mortality in patients with acute PE yielded an area under the ROC curve of 0.73. A calibration curve showed LAR is well calibrated. Our research suggests LAR monitoring may be promising as a prognostic marker among patients with acute PE.

Diabetes is not a negative prognostic factor for 30-days mortality after surgery for acute type A aortic dissection.

The correlation between diabetes and aortic dissection is not fully understood yet, although in literature many studies have suggested that there may be an association between the two conditions. The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether diabetes represents a short- and long-term risk factor for mortality from type A acute aortic dissection. A total of 340 patients with the diagnosis of type A acute aortic dissection underwent aortic surgery between January 2002 and March 2023. The sample was divided into 2 cohorts according to the presence of diabetes (n = 34) or not (n = 306). The mean age was 66 (±12.4) years and 60.9% were male. The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality. Hospital mortality was 12 (35.3%) for the diabetes group and 70 (22.9%) for nondiabetes group (P = 0.098). Overall survival at 10 years was 48.3% [95% confidence interval (CI): 41.6-54.7%], while the 10-year survival for people with diabetes was 29.5% (95% CI: 13.2-47.9%) and for nondiabetes group 50.6% (95% CI: 43.4-57.3%) (Log-rank, P = 0.024). Diabetes was not found to be a risk factor associated with 30-day mortality in patients undergoing surgery for type A acute aortic dissection. It was a risk factor for long-term survival, but this may be related to diabetes complications.

Predictive Value of Vancomycin AUC24/MIC Ratio for 30-day Mortality in Patients with Severe or Complicated Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Infections: A Multicenter Retrospective Study.

Although vancomycin is typically employed against methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections, the optimal ratio of 24-h area under the concentration-time curve to minimum inhibitory concentration (AUC24/MIC) for severe or complicated infections lacks clear guideline recommendations. This study aimed to determine the target AUC24/MIC ratio associated with treatment outcomes of infections treated with vancomycin. This retrospective multicenter cohort study included adult patients receiving ≥ 5days of vancomycin for severe/complicated MRSA infections (e.g., osteoarticular, pulmonary, endocarditis, etc.) between January 2018 and December 2023. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality, with secondary outcomes including clinical success, microbiological eradication, and nephrotoxicity. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to identify the AUC24/MIC cutoff for 30-day mortality. Multivariate regression analysis was used to determine association between AUC24/MIC and outcomes. This study included 82 patients. ROC identified a target AUC24/MIC of ≥ 505 for 30-day mortality. The overall 30-day mortality rate (22.0%) was significantly higher for below average AUC24/MIC cutoff (34.1%) than for above AUC24/MIC cutoff group (9.8%). Multivariate analysis confirmed AUC24/MIC of < 505 as an independent predictor (adjusted odds ratio, 5.001; 95% confidence interval, 1.335-18.75). The clinical success rate differed significantly between below- and above-cutoff groups, whereas microbiological eradication tended to favor the above-cutoff group. The nephrotoxicity rates were comparable between groups. In treating severe/complicated MRSA infections, vancomycin AUC24/MIC ratio ≥ 505 was independently associated with favorable 30-day mortality. Given the retrospective nature of this study, further prospective studies are essential to confirm the reliability of the target AUC24/MIC ratios.

MiR-625-5p is a potential therapeutic target in sepsis by regulating CXCL16/CXCR6 axis and endothelial barrier

BackgroundMicroRNA plays an important role in the progression of sepsis. We found a significant increase of in miR-625-5p expression in the blood of patients with sepsis, and lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-stimulated EA.hy926 cells. To date, little is known about the specific biological function of miR-625-5p in sepsis. MethodsChanges in miR-625-5p expression were verified through quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction in 45 patients with sepsis or septic shock and 30 healthy subjects. In vitro, EA.hy926 cells were treated with LPS. Transendothelial electrical resistance assay and FITC-dextran were used in evaluating endothelial barrier function. ResultsHerein, patients with sepsis or septic shock had significantly higher miR-625-5p expression levels, chemokine (C-X-C motif) ligand 16 (CXCL16) levels, and glycocalyx components than the healthy controls, and miR-625-5p level was positively correlated with disease. Kaplan–Meier analysis demonstrated a strong association between miR-625-5p level and 28-day mortality. Furthermore, the miR-625-5p inhibitor significantly alleviated LPS-induced endothelial barrier injury in vitro. Then, miR-625-5p positively regulated CXCL16 and down-regulated miR-625-5p attenuated CXCL16 transcription and expression in EA.hy926 cells. CXCL16 knockout significantly alleviated vascular barrier dysfunction in the LPS-induced EA.hy926 cells. sCXCL16 treatment in EA.hy926 cells significantly increased endothelial hyperpermeability by disrupting endothelial glycocalyx, tight junction proteins, and adherens junction proteins through the modulation of C-X-C chemokine receptor type 6 (CXCR6). ConclusionsIncrease in miR-625-5p level may be an effective biomarker for predicting 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis/septic shock. miR-625-5p is a critical pathogenic factor for endothelial barrier dysfunction in LPS-induced EA.hy926 cells because it activates the CXCL16/CXCR6 axis.

Global 30-day morbidity and mortality of surgery for perforated peptic ulcer: GRACE study.

There is little international data on morbidity and mortality of surgery for perforated peptic ulcer (PPU). This study aimed to understand the global 30-day morbidity and mortality of patients undergoing surgery for PPU and to identify variables associated with these. We performed an international study of adults (≥ 18years) who underwent surgery for PPU from 1st January 2022 to 30th June 2022. Patients who were treated conservatively or had an underlying gastric cancer were excluded. Patients were divided into subgroups according to age (≤ 50 and > 50years) and time from onset of symptoms to hospital presentation (≤ 24 and > 24h). Univariate and Multivariate analyses were carried out to identify factors associated with higher 30-day morbidity and mortality. 1874 patients from 159 centres across 52 countries were included. 78.3% (n = 1467) of the patients were males and the median (IQR) age was 49years (25). Thirty-day morbidity and mortality were 48.5% (n = 910) and 9.3% (n = 174) respectively. Median (IQR) hospital stay was 7 (5) days. Open surgery was performed in 80% (n = 1505) of the cohort. Age > 50years [(OR = 1.7, 95% CI 1.4-2), (OR = 4.7, 95% CI 3.1-7.6)], female gender [(OR = 1.8, 95% CI 1.4-2.3), (OR = 1.9, 95% CI 1.3-2.9)], shock on admission [(OR = 2.1, 95% CI 1.7-2.7), (OR = 4.8, 95% CI 3.2-7.1)], and acute kidney injury [(OR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.9-3.2), (OR = 3.9), 95% CI 2.7-5.6)] were associated with both 30-day morbidity and mortality. Delayed presentation was associated with 30-day morbidity [OR = 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.6], but not mortality. This study showed that surgery for PPU was associated with high 30-day morbidity and mortality rate. Age, female gender, and signs of shock at presentation were associated with both 30-day morbidity and mortality.

Predictors of thirty-day mortality among patients with blood stream infection with WHO priority pathogens: single centre exploratory study from a referral teaching hospital in central India.

Bloodstream infection (BSI) is defined by the presence of viable microorganisms in the bloodstream. BSI is one of the major causes of sepsis and subsequent adverse clinical outcomes all across the globe. The present study was undertaken to identify clinico-epidemio-microbiological variables associated with 30-day mortality in patients having BSI with WHO priority pathogens. The study was conducted at a public sector tertiary care institute in central India from April 2019 to March 2021. Blood samples collected from patients with clinical suspicion of sepsis, were processed by automated bacterial culture system and interpreted as per CLSI guidelines. Calculated sample size was 150. Data was analyzed by R software. Respiratory tract infection was the most common source (43.3%) of BSI, followed by the gastrointestinal (20%) and urinary tract (18.7%). Among the patients, 33% required invasive mechanical ventilation, and 31% required inotropes. Diabetes mellitus (DM) was the most common co-morbidity (34%). The incidence of multi-drug resistant organisms (MDRO) was 59.3%. Escherichia coli was the most commonly (24%) isolated organism, followed by Klebsiella pneumoniae (17.3%) and Acinetobacter baumannii (16%). Higher age, higher qSOFA score / SIRS score / mean SOFA score at presentation had higher mortality. Use of mechanical ventilation and inotropes during treatment and isolation of critical category organisms of WPP and multi drug resistant organisms were independent 30-day mortality predictors.

Association of serum ferritin and all-cause mortality in AKI patients: a retrospective cohort study

BackgroundSerum ferritin (SF) is clinically found to be elevated in many disease conditions, and our research examines serum ferritin in patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) and its implication on the risk of short-term mortality in AKI.MethodsData were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV 2.2 (MIMIC-IV 2.2) database. Adult patients with AKI who had serum ferritin tested on the first day of ICU admission were included. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Kaplan–Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards models were used to test the relationship between SF and clinical outcomes. Subgroup analyses based on the Cox model were further conducted.ResultsKaplan–Meier survival curves showed that a higher SF value was significantly associated with an enhanced risk of 28-day mortality, 90-day mortality, ICU mortality and hospital mortality (log-rank test: p &amp;lt; 0.001 for all clinical outcomes). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, high level of SF with mortality was significantly positive in all four outcome events (all p &amp;lt; 0.001). This result remains robust after adjusting for all variables. Subgroup analysis of SF with 28-day mortality based on Cox model-4 showed that high level of SF was associated with high risk of 28-day mortality in patients regardless of the presence or absence of sepsis (p for interaction = 0.730). Positive correlations of SF and 28-day mortality were confirmed in all other subgroups (p for interaction&amp;gt;0.05).ConclusionHigh level of SF is an independent prognostic predictor of 28-day mortality in patients with AKI.

Evaluating the prognostic value of systemic immune-inflammatory index in patients with acute decompensated heart failure.

The value of the systemic immune-inflammatory index (SII) in assessing adverse outcomes in various cardiovascular diseases has been extensively discussed. This study aims to evaluate the predictive value and risk stratification ability of SII for 30day mortality in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). This analysis included 1452 patients hospitalized for ADHF, all the participants being part of the China Jiangxi-acute decompensated heart failure1 project. The risk stratification capability of the SII in patients with ADHF, as well as its correlation with the 30day mortality risk among ADHF patients, was evaluated utilizing Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable Cox regression models. A restricted cubic spline was employed to model the dose-response relationship between the two, and the receiver operating characteristic curve was utilized to assess the predictive ability of SII for 30day mortality. The Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that the risk of mortality in the high SII group (SII≥980×109/L) was significantly greater than that in the low SII group (SII<980×109/L, log-rank P<0.001). After adjusting for various confounding factors, a higher SII was associated with an increased risk of 30day mortality in ADHF patients [hazard ratio (HR)=2.03, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.34-3.08]. Further restricted cubic spline analysis revealed a non-linear dose-response relationship between the two (P for non-linear=0.006). Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated that SII had a high accuracy in predicting 30day mortality events in ADHF patients (AUC=0.7479), and the optimal predictive threshold was calculated to be 980×109/L, a sensitivity of 0.7547 and a specificity of 0.7234. This study found a significant positive association between SII and 30day all-cause mortality in ADHF patients. We determined the SII cut-off point for predicting 30day all-cause mortality in patients with ADHF to be 980×109/L.

Atherogenic index of plasma: a new indicator for assessing the short-term mortality of patients with acute decompensated heart failure.

Arteriosclerosis is a primary causative factor in cardiovascular diseases. This study aims to explore the correlation between the atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) and the 30-day mortality rate in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). A total of 1,248 ADHF patients recruited from the Jiangxi-Acute Decompensated Heart Failure1 (JX-ADHF1) cohort between 2019 and 2022 were selected for this study. The primary outcome was the 30-day mortality rate. Multivariable Cox regression, restricted cubic splines (RCS), and stratified analyses were utilized to assess the relationship between AIP and the 30-day mortality rate in ADHF patients. Mediation models were employed for exploratory analysis of the roles of inflammation, oxidative stress, and nutrition in the association between AIP and the 30-day mortality rate in ADHF patients. During the 30-day follow-up, 42 (3.37%) of the ADHF patients died. The mortality rates corresponding to the quartiles of AIP were as follows: Q1: 1.28%, Q2: 2.88%, Q3: 2.88%, Q4: 6.41%. The multivariable Cox regression revealed a positive correlation between high AIP and the 30-day mortality rate in ADHF patients [Hazard ratio (HR) 3.94, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08-14.28], independent of age, gender, heart failure type, cardiac function classification, and comorbidities. It is important to note that there was a U-shaped curve association between AIP (<0.24) and the 30-day mortality rate before the fourth quartile, with the lowest 30-day mortality risk in ADHF patients around an AIP of -0.1. Furthermore, mediation analysis suggested significant mediating effects of inflammation and nutrition on the 30-day mortality rate in ADHF patients related to AIP, with inflammation accounting for approximately 24.29% and nutrition for about 8.16% of the mediation effect. This retrospective cohort analysis reveals for the first time the association between AIP and the 30-day mortality rate in ADHF patients. According to our findings, maintaining an AIP around -0.1 in ADHF patients could be crucial for improving poor prognoses from a medical perspective. Additionally, for ADHF patients with high AIP, it is important to assess and, if necessary, enhance nutritional support and anti-inflammatory treatment.

Short-term mortality prediction in acute pulmonary embolism: Radiomics values of skeletal muscle and intramuscular adipose tissue.

Acute pulmonary embolism (APE) is a potentially life-threatening disorder, emphasizing the importance of accurate risk stratification and survival prognosis. The exploration of imaging biomarkers that can reflect patient survival holds the potential to further enhance the stratification of APE patients, enabling personalized treatment and early intervention. Therefore, in this study, we develop computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) radiomic signatures for the prognosis of 7- and 30-day all-cause mortality in patients with APE. Diagnostic CTPA images from 829 patients with APE were collected. Two hundred thirty-four features from each skeletal muscle (SM), intramuscular adipose tissue (IMAT) and both tissues combined (SM+IMAT) were calculated at the level of thoracic vertebra 12. Radiomic signatures were derived using 10 times repeated three-fold cross-validation on the training data for SM, IMAT and SM+IMAT for predicting 7- and 30-day mortality independently. The performance of the radiomic signatures was then evaluated on held-out test data and compared with the simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI) score, a well-established biomarker for risk stratification in APE. Predictive accuracy was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with a 95% confidence interval (CI), sensitivity and specificity. The radiomic signatures based on IMAT and a combination of SM and IMAT (SM+IMAT) achieved moderate performance for the prediction of 30-day mortality on test data (IMAT: AUC=0.68, 95% CI [0.57-0.78], sensitivity=0.57, specificity=0.73; SM+IMAT: AUC=0.70, 95% CI [0.60-0.79], sensitivity=0.74, specificity=0.54). Radiomic signatures developed for predicting 7-day all-cause mortality showed overall low performance. The clinical signature, that is, sPESI, achieved slightly better performance in terms of AUC on test data compared with the radiomic signatures for the prediction of both 7- and 30-day mortality on the test data (7days: AUC=0.73, 95% CI [0.67-0.79], sensitivity=0.92, specificity=0.16; 30days: AUC=0.74, 95% CI [0.66-0.82], sensitivity=0.97, specificity=0.16). We developed and tested radiomic signatures for predicting 7- and 30-day all-cause mortality in APE using a multicentric retrospective dataset. The present multicentre work shows that radiomics parameters extracted from SM and IMAT can predict 30-day all-cause mortality in patients with APE.

Nonlinear relationship between platelet count and 30-day in-hospital mortality in ICU acute respiratory failure patients: a multicenter retrospective cohort study

BackgroundLimited evidence exists regarding the link between platelet count and 30-day in-hospital mortality in acute respiratory failure (ARF) patients. Thus, this study aims to investigate this association among ICU patients experiencing acute respiratory failure.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study across multiple centers, utilizing data from the US eICU-CRD v2.0 database covering 22,262 patients with ARF in the ICU from 2014 to 2015. Our aim was to investigate the correlation between platelet count and 30-day in-hospital mortality using binary logistic regression, subgroup analyses, and smooth curve fitting.ResultsThe 30-day in-hospital mortality rate was 19.73% (4393 out of 22,262), with a median platelet count of 213 × 109/L. After adjusting for covariates, our analysis revealed an inverse association between platelet count and 30-day in-hospital mortality (OR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.99, 0.99). Subgroup analyses supported the robustness of these findings. Furthermore, a nonlinear relationship was identified between platelet count and 30-day in-hospital mortality, with the inflection point at 120 × 109/L. Below the inflection point, the effect size (OR) was 0.89 (0.87, 0.91), indicating a significant association. However, beyond this point, the relationship was not statistically significant.ConclusionThis study establishes a clear negative association between platelet count and 30-day in-hospital mortality among ICU patients with ARF. Furthermore, we have identified a nonlinear relationship with saturation effects, indicating that among ICU patients with acute respiratory failure, the lowest 30-day in-hospital mortality rate occurs when the baseline platelet count is approximately 120 × 109/L.

A novel higher performance nomogram based on explainable machine learning for predicting mortality risk in stroke patients within 30 days based on clinical features on the first day ICU admission

BackgroundThis study aimed to develop a higher performance nomogram based on explainable machine learning methods, and to predict the risk of death of stroke patients within 30 days based on clinical characteristics on the first day of intensive care units (ICU) admission.MethodsData relating to stroke patients were extracted from the Medical Information Marketplace of the Intensive Care (MIMIC) IV and III database. The LightGBM machine learning approach together with Shapely additive explanations (termed as explain machine learning, EML) was used to select clinical features and define cut-off points for the selected features. These selected features and cut-off points were then evaluated using the Cox proportional hazards regression model and Kaplan-Meier survival curves. Finally, logistic regression-based nomograms for predicting 30-day mortality of stroke patients were constructed using original variables and variables dichotomized by cut-off points, respectively. The performance of two nomograms were evaluated in overall and individual dimension.ResultsA total of 2982 stroke patients and 64 clinical features were included, and the 30-day mortality rate was 23.6% in the MIMIC-IV datasets. 10 variables (“sofa (sepsis-related organ failure assessment)”, “minimum glucose”, “maximum sodium”, “age”, “mean spo2 (blood oxygen saturation)”, “maximum temperature”, “maximum heart rate”, “minimum bun (blood urea nitrogen)”, “minimum wbc (white blood cells)” and “charlson comorbidity index”) and respective cut-off points were defined from the EML. In the Cox proportional hazards regression model (Cox regression) and Kaplan-Meier survival curves, after grouping stroke patients according to the cut-off point of each variable, patients belonging to the high-risk subgroup were associated with higher 30-day mortality than those in the low-risk subgroup. The evaluation of nomograms found that the EML-based nomogram not only outperformed the conventional nomogram in NIR (net reclassification index), brier score and clinical net benefits in overall dimension, but also significant improved in individual dimension especially for low “maximum temperature” patients.ConclusionsThe 10 selected first-day ICU admission clinical features require greater attention for stroke patients. And the nomogram based on explainable machine learning will have greater clinical application.

RATE OF COVID-19 INFECTION AND 30-DAY MORTALITY BETWEEN BLUE AND GREEN (DEDICATED COVID-19 FREE) PATHWAYS: RESULTS FROM UK-FALCON AUDIT

ObjectivesThe primary aim was to determine the differences in COVID-19 infection rate and 30 day mortality in patients undergoing foot and ankle surgery between different treatment pathways over the two phases of the UK-FALCON audit, spanning the first and second national lockdowns.DesignMulticentre retrospective national audit.SettingThis was a combined retrospective (Phase 1) and prospective (Phase 2) national audit of foot and ankle procedures in the UK in 2020.ParticipantsAll adult patients undergoing foot and ankle surgery in an operating theatre during the study period included from 46 participating centres in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Patients were categorised as either a green pathway (designated COVID-19 free) or blue pathway.Results10,846 patients were included, 6,644 from phase 1 and 4,202 from phase 2. Over the 2 phases the infection rate on a blue pathway was 1.07% (69/6,470) and 0.21% on a green pathway (9/4,280). In phase 1, there was no significant difference in the COVID-19 perioperative infection rate between the blue and green pathways in any element of the first phase (pre-lockdown (p = .109), lockdown (p = .923) or post-lockdown (p = .577)). However, in phase 2 there was a significant reduction in perioperative infection rate when using the green pathway in both the pre-lockdown (p &lt; .001) and lockdown periods (p &lt; .001). There was no significant difference in COVID-19 related mortality between pathways.ConclusionsThere was a five-fold reduction in the perioperative COVID-19 infection rate when using designated COVID-19 green pathways; however the success of the pathways only became significant in phase 2 of the study. The study shows a developing success in using green pathways in reducing the risk to patients undergoing foot and ankle surgery.