6-month Mortality Research Articles

The C2HEST score on admission to hospital may successfully predict the clinical outcomes of COVID-19 in all-comers population

IntroductionSince the beginning of SARS-CoV-2-pandemic, intensive efforts have been made to identify predictors of COVID-19 outcomes. Individual components of the C2HEST-scale, used to predict the risk of atrial fibrillation, reflect comorbidities presences. Therefore, we hypothesized that the score could predict unfavorable clinical COVID-19-outcomes.Material and methods2184-medical-records of subjects hospitalized at the medical-university-center due to COVID-19 from February 2020 to June 2021 were retrospectively analyzed . The subjects were categorized into low/medium/high-risk categories according to the C2HEST scale. Measured outcomes included: in-hospital-, 3-month- and 6-month-all-cause-mortality, the non-fatal hospitalization endpoints and other adverse in-hospital events.ResultsA total of 598 deaths (27.4%), including 326 in-hospital (15%) were reported. All three types of mortality were highest in the high-risk C2HEST-stratum (35.4%, 54.4, and 56.9%), ,and lowest in the low-risk-stratum: (8.4%, 15%, and 37.5%), respectively. The receiver-operating characteristics revealed that C2HEST allows one to predict 1-month mortality with AUC30=70.7 and maintained at a similar level after 3- and 6-month-observation(AUC90=72.0 and AUC180=67). The p-value for the Log-rank test comparing survival curves was <0.0001. An increase of one C2HEST-point raised the overall death rate 1.4-fold. A change from the low- to medium category increased the death rate 3.4 times, while between the low- and high-risk-stratum the hazard-ratio was 5.0. The C2HEST-score also revealed predictive value for pneumonia, sepsis, cardiogenic-shock, myocardi-injury, acute heart failure, kidney/liver-injury, stroke, gastrointestinal-bleedings.ConclusionsThe C2HEST-score is usefull in predicting adverse COVID-19-outcomes in hospitalized subjects. The simplicity of this scale, based on the presence of comorbidities, may address medical needs in risk stratification of COVID-19- patients.

Blood-based frailty index in patients with acute ischemic stroke undergoing endovascular treatment.

Frailty is a syndrome depicting vulnerability of multiple physiological systems to stressors. Frailty measures, such as Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS), can be used to identify frailty and predict outcome more reliably. Our aim was to analyse a blood-based frailty index (FI-B) at admission for prediction outcome of patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) undergoing endovascular treatment (EVT). We conducted a retrospective study of consecutive AIS patients undergoing EVT in a single tertiary centre during a period of five years. A set of eighteen blood parameters at admission were collected and nine of these were utilized to calculate FI-B. We analysed the relationship between FI-B and HFRS. We examined the baseline characteristics of the study population based on FI-B-tertiles. Multivariable regression models were employed to ascertain the association between FI-B and in-hospital mortality, 3-month mortality and 3-month functional outcome. The final study population comprised 489 patients, with a median age of 75.6 years, 49.5% of patients were male. The FI-B exhibited a weak positive correlation with HFRS (rho=0.113, p=0.016). Patients in higher FI-B-tertiles were older and more frequently presented with pre-stroke functional dependence and comorbidities. Moreover, an increasing FI-B was independently associated with increased likelihood of in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=1.29, 95% confidence interval [95%CI]=1.14-1.47), 3-month mortality (aOR=1.26, 95%CI=1.11-1.43), and of increasing 3-month functional disability measured by utility-weighted modified Rankin Scale (common aOR=0.84, 95%CI=0.76-0.93). A frailty index based on blood values at admission was able to identify frailty in AIS patients undergoing EVT and was an independent predictor of short- and medium-term outcome after stroke.

The implications of poor nutritional status on outcomes of geriatric trauma patients

BackgroundMalnutrition is shown to be associated with worse outcomes among surgical patients, yet its postdischarge outcomes in trauma patients are not clear. This study aimed to evaluate both index admission and postdischarge outcomes of geriatric trauma patients who are at risk of poor nutritional status. MethodsThis is a secondary analysis of the prospective observational American Association of Surgery for Trauma Frailty Multi-institutional Trial. Geriatric (≥65 years) patients presenting to 1 of the 17 Level I/II/III trauma centers (2019–2021) were included and stratified using the simplified Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (albumin [g/dL] + body mass index [kg/m2]/10) into severe (simplified Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index <5), moderate (5.5> simplified Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index ≥5), mild level of nutritional risk (6> simplified Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index ≥5.5), and good nutritional status (simplified Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index ≥6) and compared. ResultsOf the 1,321 patients enrolled, 22% were at risk of poor nutritional status (mild: 13%, moderate: 7%, severe: 3%). The mean age was 77 ± 8 years, and the median [interquartile range] Injury Severity Score was 9 [5–13]. Patients at risk of poor nutritional status had greater rates of sepsis, pneumonia, discharge to the skilled nursing facility and rehabilitation center, index-admission mortality, and 3-month mortality (P < .05). On multivariable analyses, being at risk of severe level of nutritional risk was independently associated with sepsis (adjusted odds ratio 6.21, 95% confidence interval 1.68–22.90, P = .006), pneumonia (adjusted odds ratio 4.40, 95% confidence interval 1.21–16.1, P = .025), index-admission mortality (adjusted odds ratio 3.16, 95% confidence interval 1.03–9.68, P = .044), and 3-month mortality (adjusted odds ratio 8.89, 95% confidence interval 2.01–39.43, P = .004) compared with good nutrition state. ConclusionNearly one quarter of geriatric trauma patients were at risk of poor nutritional status, which was identified as an independent predictor of worse index admission and 3-month postdischarge outcomes. These findings underscore the need for nutritional screening at admission.

FIXING THE PERIPROSTHETIC FEMUR FRACTURE PROBLEM: ARE WE ABLE TO PROVIDE SAFE, EFFECTIVE, AND TIMELY CARE IN NORTH WALES? A PAN BETSI COLLABORATIVE STUDY

The recruitment drive, investment and collaboration within Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board (BCUHB) sites providing specialist lower limb arthroplasty and trauma service has evolved over last few years with aims to improve patient care and reduce reliance on tertiary referral centres. Through our service-evaluation project, we reviewed the results of treatment provided for periprosthetic femur fractures (PPFFs) presenting to BCUHB sites over last 4 years.We retrospectively reviewed consecutive PPFFs admitted at three BCUHB sites from January’20 to June’23 with mean follow-up of 20.8 ± 13.2 (8–49) months [n=161; Mean age: 82.2 ± 8.5 (59–101) years, Females:107]. Over the review period we noted a 23% increase in service demand for care of PPFFs. Majority were managed surgically [132/161] [38 revision arthroplasties; 94 ORIFs] at BCUHB sites and two patients were referred to tertiary centre. Average time to surgery was 3.5 days. 90% of the PPFFs were managed successfully with 10% (16/159) having orthopaedic complications needing further intervention. 6.3 (10/159) had medical complications and did not need orthopaedic re-intervention. In our series, 12-month re-operation rate was 6.1% (8/132) and 1-month, 3-month and 1-year mortality rate was 6.3%, 11.3% and 21.4% respectively. These results are comparable to the published results of PPFF management at tertiary centres. Potential cost savings compared to transfer to tertiary centre for PPFF management was £2.31 million. Thus, it is possible to successfully provide adequate care for PPFFs at DGHs and efforts should be made to appropriately equip and adequately staff DGHs, to provide service for local PPFF care.

Heparin-Induced Thrombocytopenia in Patients Suffering Cardiogenic Shock.

Cardiogenic shock (CS) is associated with high mortality. Patients treated for CS mostly require heparin therapy, which may be associated with complications such as heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT). HIT represents a serious condition associated with platelet decline and increased hypercoagulability and remains a poorly researched field in intensive care medicine. Primary purpose of this study was to: 1) determine HIT prevalence in CS, 2) assess the performance of common diagnostic tests for the workup of HIT, and 3) compare outcomes in CS patients with excluded and confirmed HIT. Retrospective dual-center study including adult patients 18 years old or older with diagnosed CS and suspected HIT from January 2010 to November 2022. Cardiac ICU at the Ludwig-Maximilians University hospital in Munich and the university hospital of Bonn. In this retrospective analysis, adult patients with diagnosed CS and suspected HIT were included. Differences in baseline characteristics, mortality, neurologic and safety outcomes between patients with excluded and confirmed HIT were evaluated. In cases of suspected HIT, positive screening antibodies were detected in 159 of 2808 patients (5.7%). HIT was confirmed via positive functional assay in 57 of 2808 patients, corresponding to a prevalence rate of 2.0%. The positive predictive value for anti-platelet factor 4/heparin screening antibodies was 35.8%. Total in-hospital mortality (58.8% vs. 57.9%; p > 0.999), 1-month mortality (47.1% vs. 43.9%; p = 0.781), and 12-month mortality (58.8% vs. 59.6%; p > 0.999) were similar between patients with excluded and confirmed HIT, respectively. Furthermore, no significant difference in neurologic outcome among survivors was found between groups (Cerebral Performance Category [CPC] score 1: 8.8% vs. 8.8%; p > 0.999 and CPC 2: 7.8% vs. 12.3%; p = 0.485). HIT was a rare complication in CS patients treated with unfractionated heparin and was not associated with increased mortality. Also, HIT confirmation was not associated with worse neurologic outcome in survivors. Future studies should aim at developing more precise, standardized, and cost-effective strategies to diagnose HIT and prevent complications.

Safety and efficacy of tirofiban combined with intravenous thrombolysis and endovascular treatment in acute large vessel occlusion stroke

ObjectiveThis study assesses the safety and efficacy of tirofiban for patients with large vessel occlusion stroke after intravenous thrombolysis. MethodsThis study data was from SUSTAIN, DEVT, and RESCUE BT trials. According to whether the use of tirofiban who underwent endovascular treatment and preceding intravenous thrombolysis was divided into the tirofiban group and the no-tirofiban group. The safety outcomes were symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage, any intracranial hemorrhage within 48 h, and 3-month mortality. The efficacy outcome was defined as a score of 0–2 on the modified Rankin Scale scores at 3 months. ResultsA total of 372 patients with intravenous thrombolysis were included in these SUSTAIN, DEVT, and RESCUE BT trials. Adjusted multivariate analysis showed that tirofiban with intravenous thrombolysis was not associated with symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (aOR, 0.87; 95 % CI, 0.49–1.57; P=0.65), any intracranial hemorrhage within 48 h (aOR, 1.00; 95 % CI, 0.60–1.66; P=1.00), 3-month mortality (aOR, 1.10; 95 % CI, 0.56–2.19; P=0.78) and 3-month modified Rankin Scale scores 0–2 (aOR, 0.72; 95 % CI, 0.42–1.25; P=0.25) in patients with acute large vessel occlusion. In the subgroup analysis, we found that tirofiban was not recommended for females (aOR, 0.34; 95 % CI, 0.12–0.93), baseline Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score≤9 (aOR, 0.37; 95 % CI, 0.18–0.76), and cardiogenic embolism (aOR, 0.36; 95 % CI, 0.14–0.97). ConclusionTirofiban combined with intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute large vessel occlusion may be safe. Further studies need to confirm the effectiveness of tirofiban after intravenous thrombolysis in different stroke etiology.

Age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index and its association with body composition and overall survival in patients with colorectal cancer.

To examine the relationship between the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (A-CCI) with body composition and overall survival in patients newly diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC). In this cohort study, patients (≥ 18years old) with CRC were followed for 36months. Computed tomography images of the third lumbar were analyzed to determine body composition, including skeletal muscle area (SMA), skeletal muscle index (SMI), skeletal muscle radiodensity (SMD), visceral adipose tissue (VAT), and subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT). Phenotypes based on comorbidity burden assessed by A-CCI and body composition parameters were established. A total of 436 participants were included, 50% male, with a mean age of 61 ± 13.2years. Approximately half of the patients (50.4%) had no comorbidity, and the A-CCI median score was 4 (interquartile range: 3-6). A higher A-CCI score was a risk factor for 36-month mortality (HR = 3.59, 95% CI = 2.17-5.95). Low SMA and low SMD were associated with a higher A-CCI. All abnormal phenotypes (high A-CCI and low SMA; high A-CCI and low SMD; high A-CCI and high VAT) were independently associated with higher 36-month mortality hazard (adjusted HR 5.12, 95% CI 2.73-9.57; adjusted HR 4.58, 95% CI 2.37-8.85; and adjusted HR 2.36, 95% CI 1.07-5.22, respectively). The coexistence of comorbidity burden and abnormal body composition phenotypes, such as alterations in muscle or fat compartments, may pose an additional risk of mortality in patients newly diagnosed with CRC. Early assessment and management of these phenotypes could be crucial in optimizing outcomes in such patients.

Intentional coronary revascularization versus conservative therapy in patients after peripheral artery revascularization due to critical limb ischemia: the INCORPORATE trial.

INCORPORATE trial was designed to evaluate whether default coronary-angiography (CA) and ischemia-targeted revascularization is superior compared to a conservative approach for patients with treated critical limb ischemia (CLI). Registered at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03712644) on October 19, 2018. Severe peripheral artery disease is associated with increased cardiovascular risk and poor outcomes. INCORPORATE was an open-label, prospective 1:1 randomized multicentric trial that recruited patients who had undergone successful CLI treatment. Patients were randomized to either a conservative or invasive approach regarding potential coronary artery disease (CAD). The conservative group received optimal medical therapy alone, while the invasive group had routine CA and fractional flow reserve-guided revascularization. The primary endpoint was myocardial infarction (MI) and 12-month mortality. Due to COVID-19 pandemic burdens, recruitment was halted prematurely. One hundred eighty-five patients were enrolled. Baseline cardiac symptoms were scarce with 92% being asymptomatic. Eighty-nine patients were randomized to the invasive approach of whom 73 underwent CA. Thirty-four percent had functional single-vessel disease, 26% had functional multi-vessel disease, and 90% achieved complete revascularization. Conservative and invasive groups had similar incidences of death and MI at 1year (11% vs 10%; hazard ratio 1.21 [0.49-2.98]). Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) trended for hazard in the Conservative group (20 vs 10%; hazard ratio 1.94 [0.90-4.19]). In the per-protocol analysis, the primary endpoint remained insignificantly different (11% vs 7%; hazard ratio 2.01 [0.72-5.57]), but the conservative approach had a higher MACCE risk (20% vs 7%; hazard ratio 2.88 [1.24-6.68]). This trial found no significant difference in the primary endpoint but observed a trend of higher MACCE in the conservative arm.

One-year post-acute COVID-19 syndrome and mortality in South Korea: a nationwide matched cohort study using claims data.

Current understanding of post-COVID-19 syndrome in South Korea is primarily based on survey studies or research targeting specific patient groups, such as those hospitalized. Moreover, the majority of relevant studies have been conducted in European and North American populations, which may limit their applicability to the South Korean context. To address this gap, our study explores the one-year outcomes of COVID-19, focusing on the potential post-acute syndrome and all-cause mortality in South Korea. This retrospective cohort study used nationwide claims data in South Korea, including adults aged >18 with records between January 20, 2020, and February 25, 2021. Patients were classified into COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 groups and matched 1:1 based on propensity scores. Primary outcomes were 12-month post-acute COVID-19 syndrome and all-cause mortality. The study involved 34,802 matched patients. The COVID-19 group had significantly elevated risks of coagulopathies (OR = 2.70 [2.24, 3.28]; p < 0.001), chronic lower respiratory diseases (OR = 1.96 [1.80, 2.14]; p < 0.001), symptoms of the circulatory and respiratory systems (OR = 1.91 [1.80, 2.04]; p < 0.001), mood disorders (OR = 1.67 [1.51, 1.86]; p < 0.001), cardiac diseases (OR = 1.39 [1.21, 1.59]; p < 0.001), and symptoms of cognition, perception, emotional state, and behavior (OR = 1.15 [1.04, 1.27]; p = 0.005). All-cause mortality was higher in the COVID-19 group during the 6 months (OR = 1.34 [1.06, 1.69]; p = 0.015), but gradually decreased, reaching an OR of 0.996 ([0.83, 1.19]; p = 0.964) at 1 year. In South Korea, the 12-month post-acute COVID-19 syndrome includes coagulopathies, respiratory issues, mood disorders, and cardiac diseases. The risk of all-cause mortality post-COVID-19 is heightened for up to 6 months, then significantly decreases and resolves within a year.

Evaluating and Updating the IMPACT Model to Predict Outcomes in Two Contemporary North American Traumatic Brain Injury Cohorts.

The International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in Traumatic Brain Injury (IMPACT) model is a widely recognized prognostic model applied after traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, it was developed with patient cohorts that may not reflect modern practice patterns in North America. We analyzed data from two sources: the placebo arm of the phase II double-blinded, multicenter, randomized controlled trial Prehospital Tranexamic Acid for TBI (TXA) cohort and an observational cohort with similar inclusion/exclusion criteria (Predictors of Low-risk Phenotypes after Traumatic Brain Injury Incorporating Proteomic Biomarker Signatures [PROTIPS] cohort). All three versions of the IMPACT model-core, extended, and laboratory-were evaluated for 6-month mortality (Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended [GOSE] = 1) and unfavorable outcomes (GOSE = 1-4). Calibration (intercept and slope) and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [ROC-AUC]) were used to assess model performance. We then compared three model updating methods-recalibration in the large, logistic recalibration, and coefficient update-with the best update method determined by likelihood ratio tests. In our calibration analysis, recalibration improved both intercepts and slopes, indicating more accurate predicted probabilities when recalibration was done. Discriminative performance of the IMPACT models, measured by AUC, showed mortality prediction ROCs between 0.61 and 0.82 for the TXA cohort, with the coefficient updated Lab model achieving the highest at 0.84. Unfavorable outcomes had lower AUCs, ranging from 0.60 to 0.79. Similarly, in the PROTIPS cohort, AUCs for mortality ranged from 0.75 to 0.82, with the coefficient updated Lab model also showing superior performance (AUC 0.84). Unfavorable outcomes in this cohort presented AUCs from 0.67 to 0.73, consistently lower than mortality predictions. The closed testing procedure using likelihood ratio tests consistently identified the coefficient update model as superior, outperforming the original and recalibrated models across all cohorts. In our comprehensive evaluation of the IMPACT model, the coefficient updated models were the best performing across all cohorts through a structured closed testing procedure. Thus, standardization of model updating procedures is needed to reproducibly determine the best performing versions of IMPACT that reflect the specific characteristics of a dataset.

Application of Charlson Comorbidity Index to assess prognosis of 18-month mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction

Application of Charlson Comorbidity Index to assess prognosis of 18-month mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction

Increasing plasma calprotectin (S100A8/A9) is associated with 12-month mortality and unfavourable functional outcome in critically ill COVID-19 patients

BackgroundCalprotectin (S100A8/A9) is a pro-inflammatory mediator primarily released from neutrophils. Previous studies have revealed associations between plasma calprotectin, disease severity and in-hospital mortality in unselected COVID-19 patients.ObjectiveWe aimed to assess whether plasma calprotectin dynamics during the first week of intensive care are associated with mortality and functional outcome in critically ill COVID-19 patients.MethodsThis prospective study included 498 COVID-19 patients admitted to six intensive care units (ICUs) in Sweden between May 2020 and May 2021. Blood samples were collected on ICU admission and on day 7. The primary outcome was 12-month mortality. Secondary outcomes were functional outcome of survivors at 3 and 12 months, and the need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) or continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) during the ICU stay. Functional outcome was assessed by the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE, range 1–8, with < 5 representing an unfavourable outcome). Associations between plasma calprotectin and outcomes were examined in binary logistic regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, BMI, hypertension, smoking, and creatinine.ResultsHigh plasma calprotectin on admission and day 7 was independently associated with increased 12-month mortality. Increasing calprotectin from admission to day 7 was independently associated with higher mortality at 12 months [OR 2.10 (95% CI 1.18–3.74), p = 0.012], unfavourable functional outcome at 3 months [OR 2.53 (95% CI 1.07–6.10), p = 0.036], and the use of IMV [OR 2.23 (95% CI 1.10–4.53), p = 0.027)] and CRRT [OR 2.07 (95% CI 1.07–4.00), p = 0.031)]. A receiver operator characteristic (ROC) model including day 7 calprotectin and age was a good predictor of 12-month mortality [AUC 0.79 (95% CI 0.74–0.84), p < 0.001]. Day 7 calprotectin alone predicted an unfavourable functional outcome at 3 months [AUC 0.67 (95% CI 0.58–0.76), p < 0.001].ConclusionIn critically ill COVID-19 patients, increasing calprotectin levels after admission to the ICU are associated with 12-month mortality and unfavourable functional outcome in survivors. Monitoring plasma calprotectin dynamics in the ICU may be considered to evaluate prognosis in critical COVID-19.Study registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04974775, registered April 28, 2020.

Functional Outcome and Hemorrhage Rates After Bridging Therapy With Tenecteplase or Alteplase in Patients With Large Ischemic Core.

IV tenecteplase is an alternative to alteplase before mechanical thrombectomy (MT) in patients with large-vessel occlusion (LVO) ischemic stroke. Little data are available on its use in patients with large ischemic core. We aimed to compare the efficacy and safety of both thrombolytics in this population. We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients with anterior circulation LVO strokes and diffusion-weighed imaging Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (DWI-ASPECTS) ≤5 treated with tenecteplase or alteplase before MT from the TETRIS (tenecteplase) and ETIS (alteplase) French multicenter registries. Primary outcome was reduced disability at 3 months (ordinal analysis of the modified Rankin scale [mRS]). Safety outcomes were 3-month mortality, parenchymal hematoma (PH), and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH). We used propensity score overlap weighting to reduce baseline differences between treatment groups. We analyzed 647 patients (tenecteplase: n = 194; alteplase: n = 453; inclusion period 2015-2022). Median (interquartile range) age was 71 (57-81) years, with NIH Stroke Scale score 19 (16-22), DWI-ASPECTS 4 (3-5), and last seen well-to-IV thrombolysis and puncture times 165 minutes (130-226) and 260 minutes (203-349), respectively. After MT, the successful reperfusion rate was 83.1%. After propensity score overlap weighting, all baseline variables were well balanced between both treatment groups. Compared with patients treated with alteplase, patients treated with tenecteplase had better 3-month mRS (common odds ratio [OR] for reduced disability: 1.37, 1.01-1.87, p = 0.046) and lower 3-month mortality (OR 0.52, 0.33-0.81, p < 0.01). There were no significant differences between thrombolytics for PH (OR 0.84, 0.55-1.30, p = 0.44) and sICH incidence (OR 0.70, 0.42-1.18, p = 0.18). Our data are encouraging regarding the efficacy and reassuring regarding the safety of tenecteplase compared with that of alteplase in bridging therapy for patients with LVO strokes and a large ischemic core in routine clinical care. These results support its consideration as an alternative to alteplase in bridging therapy for patients with large ischemic cores. NCT03776877 (ETIS registry) and NCT05534360 (TETRIS registry). This study provides Class III evidence that patients with anterior circulation LVO stroke and DWI-ASPECTS ≤5 treated with tenecteplase vs alteplase before MT experienced better functional outcomes and lower mortality at 3 months.

Prognoses Associated With Palliative Performance Scale Scores in Modern Palliative Care Practice

The Palliative Performance Scale (PPS) is one of the most widely used prognostic tools for patients with serious illness. However, current prognostic estimates associated with PPS scores are based on data that are over a decade old. To generate updated prognostic estimates by PPS score, care setting, and illness category, and examine how well PPS predicts short- and longer-term survival. This prognostic study was conducted at a large academic medical center with robust inpatient and outpatient palliative care practices using electronic health record data linked with data from California Vital Records. Eligible participants included patients who received a palliative care consultation between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2020. Data analysis was conducted from November 2022 to February 2024. Palliative care consultation with a PPS score documented. The primary outcomes were predicted 1-, 6-, and 12-month mortality and median survival of patients by PPS score in the inpatient and outpatient settings, and performance of the PPS across a range of survival times. In subgroup analyses, mortality risk by PPS score was estimated in patients with cancer vs noncancer illnesses and those seen in-person vs by video telemedicine in the outpatient setting. Overall, 4779 patients (mean [SD] age, 63.5 [14.8] years; 2437 female [51.0%] and 2342 male [49.0%]) had a palliative care consultation with a PPS score documented. Of these patients, 2276 were seen in the inpatient setting and 3080 were seen in the outpatient setting. In both the inpatient and outpatient settings, 1-, 6-, and 12-month mortality were higher and median survival was shorter for patients with lower PPS scores. Prognostic estimates associated with PPS scores were substantially longer (2.3- to 11.7-fold) than previous estimates commonly used by clinicians. The PPS had good ability to discriminate between patients who lived and those who died in the inpatient setting (integrated time-dependent area under the curve [iAUC], 0.74) but its discriminative ability was lower in the outpatient setting (iAUC, 0.67). The PPS better predicted 1-month survival than longer-term survival. Mortality rates were higher for patients with cancer than other serious illnesses at most PPS levels. In this prognostic study, prognostic estimates associated with PPS scores were substantially longer than previous estimates commonly used by clinicians. Based on these findings, an online calculator was updated to assist clinicians in reaching prognostic estimates that are more consistent with modern palliative care practice and specific to the patient's setting and diagnosis group.

Single-centre real-life observational study on mortality and outcomes: decompressive craniectomy and brain death in traumatic brain injury, haemorrhage, and other cerebral diseases

BackgroundDecompressive hemicraniectomy (DHC) is used after severe brain damages with elevated, refractory intracranial pressure (ICP). In a non age-restricted population, mortality rates and long-term outcomes following DHC are still unclear. This study’s objectives were to examine both, as well as to identify predictors of unfavourable outcomes.MethodsWe undertook a retrospective observational analysis of patients aged 18 years and older who underwent DHC at the University Hospital of Bonn between 2018 and 2020, due to traumatic brain injury (TBI), haemorrhage, tumours or infections. Patient outcomes were assessed by conducting telephone interviews, utilising questionnaires for modified Rankin Scale (mRS) and extended Glasgow Outcome scale (GOSE). We evaluated the health-related quality of life using the EuroQol (EQ-5D-5L) scale.ResultsA total of 144 patients with a median age of 58.5 years (range: 18 to 85 years) were evaluated. The mortality rate was 67%, with patients passing away at a median of 6.0 days (IQR [1.9–37.6]) after DHC. Favourable outcomes, as assessed by the mRS and GOSE were observed in 10.4% and 6.3% of patients, respectively. Cox regression analysis revealed a 2.0% increase in the mortality risk for every year of age (HR = 1.017; 95% CI [1.01–1.03]; p = 0.004). Uni- and bilateral fixed pupils were associated with a 1.72 (95% CI [1.03–2.87]; p = 0.037) and 3.97 (95% CI [2.44–6.46]; p < 0.001) times higher mortality risk, respectively. ROC-analysis demonstrated that age and pupillary reactivity predicted 6-month mortality with an AUC of 0.77 (95% CI [0.69–0.84]). The only parameter significantly associated with a better quality of life was younger age.ConclusionsFollowing DHC, mortality remains substantial, and favourable outcomes occur rarely. Particularly in elderly patients and in the presence of clinical signs of herniation, mortality rates are notably elevated. Hence, the indication for DHC should be set critically.

Accurate prediction of all-cause mortality in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease using electronic health records

Introduction and ObjectivesDespite the huge clinical burden of MASLD, validated tools for early risk stratification are lacking, and heterogeneous disease expression and a highly variable rate of progression to clinical outcomes result in prognostic uncertainty. We aimed to investigate longitudinal electronic health record-based outcome prediction in MASLD using a state-of-the-art machine learning model. Patients and Methodsn = 940 patients with histologically-defined MASLD were used to develop a deep-learning model for all-cause mortality prediction. Patient timelines, spanning 12 years, were fully-annotated with demographic/clinical characteristics, ICD-9 and -10 codes, blood test results, prescribing data, and secondary care activity. A Transformer neural network (TNN) was trained to output concomitant probabilities of 12-, 24-, and 36-month all-cause mortality. In-sample performance was assessed using 5-fold cross-validation. Out-of-sample performance was assessed in an independent set of n = 528 MASLD patients. ResultsIn-sample model performance achieved AUROC curve 0.74–0.90 (95 % CI: 0.72–0.94), sensitivity 64 %-82 %, specificity 75 %–92 % and Positive Predictive Value (PPV) 94 %-98 %. Out-of-sample model validation had AUROC 0.70–0.86 (95 % CI: 0.67–0.90), sensitivity 69 %–70 %, specificity 96 %–97 % and PPV 75 %–77 %. Key predictive factors, identified using coefficients of determination, were age, presence of type 2 diabetes, and history of hospital admissions with length of stay >14 days. ConclusionsA TNN, applied to routinely-collected longitudinal electronic health records, achieved good performance in prediction of 12-, 24-, and 36-month all-cause mortality in patients with MASLD. Extrapolation of our technique to population-level data will enable scalable and accurate risk stratification to identify people most likely to benefit from anticipatory health care and personalized interventions.

Cardiogenic shock and infection: A lethal combination

BackgroundCardiogenic shock and sepsis are severe haemodynamic states that are frequently present concomitantly, leading to substantial mortality. Despite its frequency and clinical significance, there is a striking lack of literature on the outcomes of combined sepsis and cardiogenic shock. MethodsFRENSHOCK was a prospective registry including 772 patients with cardiogenic shock from 49 centres. The primary endpoint was 1-month all-cause mortality. Secondary endpoints included heart transplantation, ventricular assistance device and all-cause death rate at 1year. ResultsAmong the 772 patients with cardiogenic shock included, 92 cases were triggered by sepsis (11.9%), displaying more frequent renal and hepatic acute injuries, with lower mean arterial pressure. Patients in the sepsis group required broader use of dobutamine (90.1% vs. 81.2%; P=0.16), norepinephrine (72.5% vs. 50.8%; P<0.01), renal replacement therapy (29.7% vs. 14%; P<0.01), non-invasive ventilation (36.3% vs. 24.4%; P=0.09) and invasive ventilation (52.7% vs. 35.9%; P=0.02). Sepsis-triggered cardiogenic shock resulted in higher 1-month (41.3% vs. 24.0%; adjusted hazard ratio: 1.94, 95% confidence interval: 1.36–2.76; P<0.01) and 1-year (62.0% vs. 42.9%; adjusted hazard ratio 1.75, 95% confidence interval 1.32–2.33; P<0.01) all-cause death rates. No significant difference was found at 1year for heart transplantation or ventricular assistance device (8.7% vs. 10.3%; adjusted odds ratio 0.72, 95% confidence interval 0.32–1.64; P=0.43). In patients with sepsis-triggered cardiogenic shock, neither the presence of a preexisting cardiomyopathy nor the co-occurrence of other cardiogenic shock triggers had any additional impact on death. ConclusionsThe association between sepsis and cardiogenic shock represents a common high-risk scenario, leading to higher short- and long-term death rates, regardless of the association with other cardiogenic shock triggers or the presence of preexisting cardiomyopathy.

669 Outcomes, Morbidity and Mortality Following Pelvic Exenterations at Cambridge University Hospitals

Abstract Aim To evaluate patient outcomes following pelvic exenteration (PE) within the colorectal department, specifically length of admission, morbidity, and mortality over a 7-year period. Objective To identify factors affecting patient outcomes following PE. Method Data collected retrospectively on all colorectal patients who underwent PE from 2015 to 2022 at Addenbrooke’s Hospital, Cambridge, UK. Results 89 patients underwent PE for colorectal cancer, with mean age 62.69 and male to female ratio 2:1. 74% had rectal adenocarcinoma, R0 resection was achieved in 82%. 82% experienced complications, most notably intra-abdominal collections (52%); this resulted in significantly longer admissions (p&amp;lt;0.01). Length of admission was higher in patients undergoing PE for cancer recurrence (p 0.048). Median survival was 68 months, and on multivariate Kaplan-Meyer analysis R0 resection was found to be the only significant factor affecting survival (p &amp;lt;0.01). In-patient mortality was 8% and 12-month mortality at 16%. Conclusions A similar study by Choy et al. 2017 reported 16% 12-month mortality and 87% post-operative complications, marginally higher than our findings. In comparison, our study examined a wider range of factors affecting PE outcomes and identified significance of R0 resection. Our study has one of the highest patient cohorts in literature and findings are consistent with similar studies. Complications following PE are common, the most frequent being intra-abdominal collections. Although morbidity is high, most patients survive over 3 years; the only factor affecting survival appears to be R0 resection.

The predictors of fungal infections after liver transplantation and the influence of fungal infections on outcomes

The primary objective of this study was to assess the incidence, timing, risk factors of fungal infections (FIs) within 3 months after liver transplantation (LT). The secondary objective was to evaluate the impact of FIs on outcomes. Four hundred and ten patients undergoing LT from January 2015 until January 2023 in a tertiary university hospital were included in the present retrospective cohort study to investigate the risk factors of FIs and to assess the impacts of FIs on the prognosis of LT recipients using logistic regression. The incidence of FIs was 12.4% (51/410), and median time from LT to the onset of FIs was 3 days. By univariate analysis, advanced recipient age, prolonged hospital stay prior to LT, high Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, use of broad-spectrum antibiotics, and elevated white blood cell (WBC) count, increased operating time, massive blood loss and red blood cell transfusion, elevated alanine aminotransferase on day 1 and creatinine on day 3 after LT, prolonged duration of urethral catheter, prophylactic antifungal therapy, the need for mechanical ventilation and renal replacement therapy were identified as factors of increased post-LT FIs risk. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that recipient age ≥ 55 years[OR = 2.669, 95%CI: 1.292–5.513, P = 0.008], MELD score at LT ≥ 22[OR = 2.747, 95%CI: 1.274–5.922, P = 0.010], pre-LT WBC count ≥ 10 × 109/L[OR = 2.522, 95%CI: 1.117–5.692, P = 0.026], intraoperative blood loss ≥ 3000 ml [OR = 2.691, 95%CI: 1.262–5.738, P = 0.010], post-LT duration of urethral catheter > 4 d [OR = 3.202, 95%CI: 1.553–6.602, P = 0.002], and post-LT renal replacement therapy [OR = 5.768, 95%CI: 1.822–18.263, P = 0.003] were independently associated with the development of post-LT FIs. Post-LT prophylactic antifungal therapy ≥ 3 days was associated with a lower risk of the development of FIs [OR = 0.157, 95%CI: 0.073–0.340, P < 0.001]. As for clinical outcomes, FIs had a negative impact on intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay ≥ 7 days than those without FIs [OR = 3.027, 95% CI: 1.558–5.878, P = 0.001] but had no impact on hospital length of stay and 1-month all-cause mortality after LT. FIs are frequent complications after LT and the interval between the onset of FIs and LT was short. Risk factors for post-LT FIs included high MELD score at LT, advanced recipient age, pre-LT WBC count, massive intraoperative blood loss, prolonged post-LT duration of urethral catheter, and the need for post-LT renal replacement therapy. However, post-LT prophylactic antifungal therapy was independently associated with the reduction in the risk of FIs. FIs had a significant negative impact on ICU length of stay.

Development and internal validation of individualized prediction models of overall survival and 6-month mortality among patients with synchronous early-onset colorectal liver metastases

BackgroundEarly-onset colorectal cancer with synchronous liver metastasis (EO-CRLM) is a growing concern with a grim prognosis. MethodsEO-CRLM patients were identified from the National Cancer Database. Random survival forest model and random forest (RF) model were developed for the prediction of overall survival (OS) and 6-month mortality, respectively. ResultsThe variables with top contributions for random survival forest model of OS included primary tumor resection, chemotherapy and bone metastases. The AUCs of 1-, 3- and 5-year OS were 0.787, 0.763 and 0.761, respectively. The individualized risk profile predicted by the models closely aligned with the actual survival outcomes observed for the patients. The variables with top contributions for RF model for 6-month mortality included chemotherapy, Charlson-Deyo comorbidity score and presence of tumor deposits. RF model for 6-month mortality resulted in an AUC of 0.821 in training set, 0.828 in cross-validation and 0.852 in testing cohort. RF models for OS and 6-month mortality exhibited great net benefit with favorable clinical utility. ConclusionThe models generated in this study accurately identified EO-CRLM patients at risk of worse OS and short-term mortality, which may complement standard clinical assessment and aid in creation of advanced care planning.