30-day Mortality In Elderly Patients Research Articles

Determinants of 30-day mortality in elderly patients admitted to a cardiovascular surgery intensive care unit.

This study aims to identify the factors influencing 30-day morbidity and mortality in patients aged 65 and older undergoing cardiovascular surgery. Data from 360 patients who underwent cardiac surgery between January 2012 and August 2021 in the Cardiovascular Surgery Intensive Care Unit (CVS ICU) were analyzed. Patients were categorized into two groups: "mortality+" (33 patients) and "mortality-" (327 patients). Factors influencing mortality, including preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative risk factors, complications, and outcomes, were assessed. Significant differences were observed between the two groups in factors affecting mortality, including extubation time, ICU stay duration, blood transfusion, surgical reexploration, aortic clamp duration, glomerular filtration rate (GFR), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels, and the lowest systolic blood pressure during the first 24 hours in the ICU (p<0.05). The "mortality+" group had longer extubation times and ICU stays, required more blood transfusions, and had higher BUN-creatinine ratios, but lower systolic blood pressures, GFR, and HbA1c levels. Mortality was also higher in patients needing noradrenaline infusions and those who underwent reoperation for bleeding (p<0.05). By optimizing preoperative renal function, minimizing extubation time, shortening ICU stays, and carefully managing blood transfusions, surgical reexplorations, aortic clamp duration, and HbA1c levels, we believe that the mortality rate can be reduced in elderly patients. Key strategies include shortening aortic clamp times, reducing perioperative blood transfusions, and ensuring effective bleeding control.

Pre-Interventional Risk Assessment in The Elderly (PIRATE): Development of a scoring system to predict 30-day mortality using data of the Peri-Interventional Outcome Study in the Elderly.

Risk assessment before interventions in elderly patients becomes more and more vital due to an increasing number of elderly patients requiring surgery. Existing risk scores are often not tailored to marginalized groups such as patients aged 80 years or older. We aimed to develop an easy-to-use and readily applicable risk assessment tool that implements pre-interventional predictors of 30-day mortality in elderly patients (≥80 years) undergoing interventions under anesthesia. Using Cox regression analysis, we compared different sets of predictors by taking into account their ease of availability and by evaluating predictive accuracy. Coefficient estimates were utilized to set up a scoring system that was internally validated. Model building and evaluation were based on data from the Peri-Interventional Outcome Study in the Elderly (POSE), which was conducted as a European multicenter, observational prospective cohort study. Our risk assessment tool, named PIRATE, contains three predictors assessable at admission (urgency, severity and living conditions). Discriminatory power, as measured by the concordance index, was 0.75. The estimated prediction error, as measured by the Brier score, was 0.036 (covariate-free reference model: 0.043). PIRATE is an easy-to-use risk assessment tool that helps stratifying elderly patients undergoing interventions with anesthesia at increased risk of mortality. PIRATE is readily available and applies to a wide variety of settings. In particular, it covers patients needing elective or emergency surgery and undergoing in-hospital or day-case surgery. Also, it applies to all types of interventions, from minor to major. It may serve as a basis for multidisciplinary and informed shared decision-making.

Protocol: dexmedetomidine on myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery—a multicenter, double-blind, controlled trial

AimsMyocardial injury after noncardiac surgery (MINS) is common in elderly patients and considered as an independent predictor of 30-day mortality after noncardiac surgery. Dexmedetomidine possesses cardiac-protective profile. Previous clinical studies have found that perioperative application of dexmedetomidine is associated with decreased 1-year mortality in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. The current study protocol aims to investigate the effects of dexmedetomidine on the incidence of MINS, complications, and 30-day mortality in elderly patients subjected to noncardiac surgery.MethodsA multicenter, randomized, controlled, double-blind, prospective trial is designed to explore cardiac protection of dexmedetomidine in the elderly patients undergoing noncardiac surgery. A total of 960 patients aged over 65 years will be recruited and randomly assigned to dexmedetomidine group (group Dex) and normal saline placebo group (group NS) in a ratio of 1:1. Patients in group Dex will receive a bolus dose of 0.5 μg/kg dexmedetomidine within 10 min before surgical incision, followed by a consistent infusion at the rate of 0.3–0.5 μg/kg/h throughout the operation. Group NS patients will receive the same volume of normal saline. The primary outcome is the incidence of MINS via detecting the hs-TnT level within 3 days after the operation. The secondary outcome includes myocardial ischemic symptoms, the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in hospital, length of ICU and postoperative hospital stay, the incidence of inhospital complications, and 30-day all-cause mortality.DiscussionThe results of the current study will illustrate the effect of dexmedetomidine on myocardial injury for elderly patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery.Trial registrationThe trial was registered with Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (CHICTR) on Aug 24, 2021 (ChiCTR2100049946, http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=131804).

Can C-reactive protein-based biomarkers be used as predictive of 30-day mortality in elderly hip fractures?A retrospective study.

C-reactive protein-to-lymphocyte ratio (CLR), C-reactive protein/albumin (CRP/ALB), and CRP are prognostic factors for outcome and survival in oncology and digestive surgery. CLR has not been studied for the prediction of mortality in hip fracture. The aim of this study is to investigate whether there is an association between pre-operative CLR, CRP/ALB, and CRP levels in patients with hip fracture and patient survival. The medical reports of the patients who underwent surgery with a diagnosis of hip fracture in our hospital between January 2016 and December 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. The patients were divided into two groups (Group E: Those who died within 1 month and Group S: Those who died after the 1st month or those who survived). A total of 19 parameters, namely, included ' blood parameters including hemoglobin, C-reactive protein, albumin, lymphocytes, neutrophils, monocytes, platelets, PLR, NLR, LMR, CLR CRP/ALB ratios, gender, American Society of Anesthesiologists, Charlson Comorbidity Index, delirium, infections, repeated surgeries, and type of anesthesia were evaluated preoperatively and on the post-operative 2nd and 5th days and 1 month. A total of 165 patients with the mean age of 83.09±8.52 years who met the inclusion criteria were studied. The pre-op-erative means of CRP, neutrophil count, CLR ratio, and CRP/ALB ratio were statistically significantly higher in Group E than in Group S (p=0.016, p=0.023, p=0.035, and p=0.044, respectively). The univariate regression analysis showed that age, pre-operative Hb level, CRP, and CRP/ALB ratio were significant predictors of the 1-month mortality (ß=-0.335, p=0.049; ß=0.411, p=0.028; ß=3.632, p=0.007; and ß=-3.280, p=0.008; respectively). When we performed the ROC curve analysis, the CRP/ALB ratio had the highest AUC, with the highest sensitivity and specificity. The cutoff value of CRP/ALB ratio was found to be 12.42. We found that the pre-operative CRP/ALB ratio is an important parameter for predicting the first 30-day mortality in elderly patients with intertrochanteric femur fractures. For this reason, we recommend that CRP and albumin be checked in prepa-ration for routine pre-operative anesthesia.

Copeptin combined with National Early Warning Score for predicting survival in elderly critical ill patients at emergency department.

Copeptin, reflecting vasopressin release, as well as the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), reflecting the severity of critical illness, might qualify for survival prediction in elderly patients with critical illness. This prospective observational study aims at assessing the predictive value of copeptin combined with NEWS on the prognosis of elderly critical ill patients at emergency department (ED). We analyzed serum copeptin levels and the NEWS at admission to the ED in a prospective, single-center, and observational study comprising 205 elderly patients with critical illness. Death within 30 days after admission to the ED was the primary end point. The serum copeptin levels and the NEWS in the non-survivor patients group were higher than those in the survivor group [30.35 (14.20, 38.91) vs 17.53 (13.01, 25.20), P = 0.001 and 9.0 (7.0-10.0) vs 7.0 (6.0-8.0), P = 0.001]. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that copeptin, NEWS and copeptin combined with NEWS were all independent risk factors for 30-day mortality in elderly patients with critical illness. Copeptin, NEWS and copeptin combined with NEWS all performed well in predicting 30-day survival, with area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of 0.766 (95%CI, 0.702-0.822), 0.797 (95%CI, 0.744-0.877) and 0.854 (95%CI, 0.798-0.899) respectively. Using the Z test to compare the areas under the above three curves, copeptin combined with NEWS showed a higher predictive value for 30-day survival (P < 0.05). As we calculated, the optimal cut-off values of copeptin and NEWS using the Youden index were 19.78 pg/mL and 8.5 points, respectively. Risk stratification analysis showed that patients with both copeptin levels higher than 19.78 pg/mL and NEWS points higher than 8.5 points had the highest risk of death. Copeptin combined with NEWS have a stronger predictive power on the prognosis of elderly patients with critical illness at ED, comparing to either factor individually.

Validity of presepsin for the diagnosis and prognosis of sepsis in elderly patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit.

Preliminary reports suggested that presepsin was a powerful biomarker for sepsis in a general population. However, presepsin levels change with age. This study aimed to investigate the diagnostic and prognostic value of presepsin among elderly patients with sepsis in the intensive care unit (ICU). A total of 142 elderly patients were enrolled and assorted into three groups: non-infection, infection, and sepsis. Blood samples were collected on days 1, 3 and 7 during the first week of ICU stay for presepsin measurement. Diagnostic and prognostic utilities were tested by receiver operating characteristic, cutoff levels, Kaplan Meier survival curves and hazard ratios. The presepsin level on days 1 and 3 were significantly higher in sepsis compared with infection (P<0.01) and non-infection (P<0.01). The diagnostic area under the curve (AUC) of presepsin was comparable to that of procalcitonin (P>0.05) and higher than that of C-reactive protein or interleukin 6 (P<0.05) on days 1 and 3. In AUC and Kaplan-Meier survival curves, presepsin on day 3 showed a significant prognostic value for 30-day mortality but was not superior to other biomarkers. The presepsin level was significantly higher in elderly patients with sepsis compared with the non-infection and infection groups. Presepsin has a reliable early diagnostic ability for sepsis comparable to that of PCT. However, it cannot be defined as a perfect biomarker for prognosis of 30-day mortality in elderly patients. An overall and continual assessment of all the clinical indexes for sepsis during the course of the disease is necessary.

A Nomogram for Predicting 30-day Mortality in Elderly Patients Undergoing Hemiarthroplasty for Femoral Neck Fractures

Introduction:Femoral neck fractures in the elderly are increasingly common as a result of a growing geriatric population with 1-year mortality rates approaching 35%. While preoperative medical optimization and early time to surgery have reduced morbidity and mortality, patients with numerous medical comorbidities remain high risk for death in the perioperative period. Identifying those with greatest risk with a scoring system or nomogram may assist multidisciplinary teams in reducing mortality following hemiarthroplasty.Purpose:Identify predictors of 30-day mortality in elderly patients who underwent hemiarthroplasty for a femoral neck fracture to generate a predictive nomogram to determine the probability of post-operative mortality.Methods:Retrospective evaluation using data from the ACS-NSQIP database from 2005 to 2014 with CPT code 27125 for hip hemiarthroplasty. Multiple factors including demographics and comorbidities were compared in patients who experienced 30-day mortality and those who did not. T-test and chi-square tests were used to analyze data and a multivariate model was generated using logistic regression.Results:Advanced age (odds ratio (OR) 1.04), underweight BMI (OR 1.55), male sex (OR 1.80), reduced functional status (OR 2.04), heart failure within 30 days prior to surgery (OR 2.22), American Society of Anesthesiologists grade > 2 (OR > 2.50), disseminated cancer (OR 3.43) were all found to have statistically significant odds ratios for 30-day mortality following hemiarthroplasty.Conclusion:A tool based on easily identifiable risk factors, demographics, and comorbidities was developed that can help predict elderly patients who will experience mortality within 30 days of following hemiarthroplasty. In addition to identifying high risk patients, the nomogram can serve as a counseling tool for physicians to use with patients and their families to assist with better understanding of perioperative mortality risk.

Prediction of adverse outcomes using non-endoscopic scoring systems in patients over 80 years of age who present with the upper gastrointestinal bleeding in the emergency department.

The emergency department (ED) admission rate for elderly patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is increasing. The AIMS65 and Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) are two distinct scoring systems proposed to predict in-hospital and post-discharge mortality, length of stay (LOS), and health-related costs in these patients. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the accuracy of these scoring systems, in conjunction with the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), to predict 30-day mortality and LOS in UGIB patients who are 80 years of age or older METHODS: A retrospective analysis was undertaken of 182 patients with non-variceal UGIB who were admitted to the ED of Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University Hospital. The AIMS65, GBS, and CCI scores were calculated and adverse patient outcomes were assessed. The mean age of patients was 85.59±4.33 years, and 90 (49.5%) of the patients were males. The AIMS65 was superior to the GBS (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] 0.877 vs. 0.695, respectively) and CCI (AUROC 0.877 vs. 0.526, respectively) in predicting the 30-day mortality. All three scores performed poorly in predicting the LOS in hospital. The cutoff threshold that maximized sensitivity and specificity for mortality was three for the AIMS65 score (sensitivity, 0.87; specificity, 0.80; negative predictive values [NPV], 0.977; positive predictive values [PPV], 0.392), 14 for GBS (sensitivity, 0.83; specificity, 0.51; NPV, 0.923; PPV, 0.367), and 5 for CCI (sensitivity, 0.91; specificity, 0.22; NPV, 0.946; PPV, 0.145). The AIMS65 is a simple, accurate, and non-endoscopic scoring system that can be performed easily in ED settings. It is superior to GBS and CCI in predicting 30-day mortality in elderly patients with UGIB.

Cytokine levels predict 30-day mortality in octogenarians and nonagenarians with community-acquired pneumonia: a retrospective observational study.

To analyze the value of cytokines (tumor necrosis factor [TNF]-α, interleukin [IL]-1β, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10) as predictors of mortality at 30days in octogenarians and nonagenarians hospitalized in an internal medicine unit for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). An observational, analytical, retrospective cohort study was conducted in the Department of Internal Medicine at Alicante General University Hospital between January 2014 and December 2015. Blood samples were frozen at - 80°C, and cytokines were measured by ELISA. We included 115 patients, of whom 54% were men, with a mean age of 86.4 (standard deviation 4.5)years. There is a moderate correlation between IL-10 levels and CURB-65 score (p < 0.001) and a weak correlation with creatinine levels (p = 0.012) and urea levels (p = 0.032). Forty-five (39.1%) patients died within 30days. In a multivariate analysis, the variables associated with mortality at 30days were the following: age (adjusted odds ratio [ORa] 1.134, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02, 1.26), male sex (ORa 2.85, 95% CI 1.14, 7.14), IL-8 of 19pg/mL or more (ORa 4.09, 95% CI 1.67, 10.01), and IL-10 of 11.29pg/mL or more (ORa 4.00, 95% CI 1.58, 10.12). High IL-8 and IL-10 levels were shown to predict 30-day mortality in elderly patients with CAP. The inflammatory response in these patients seems to condition their prognosis. Further research in this line would provide more understanding about the physiopathological mechanisms and potential therapeutic targets for improving survival.

Development of the Subdural Hematoma in the Elderly (SHE) score to predict mortality.

The purpose of this study was to describe the development of a novel prognostic score, the Subdural Hematoma in the Elderly (SHE) score. The SHE score is intended to predict 30-day mortality in elderly patients (those > 65 years of age) with an acute, chronic, or mixed-density subdural hematoma (SDH) after minor, or no, prior trauma. The authors used the Prognosis Research Strategy group methods to develop the clinical prediction model. The training data set included patients with acute, chronic, and mixed-density SDH. Based on multivariate analyses from a large data set, in addition to review of the extant literature, 3 components to the score were selected: age, admission Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, and SDH volume. Patients are given 1 point if they are over 80 years old, 1 point for an admission GCS score of 5-12, 2 points for an admission GCS score of 3-4, and 1 point for SDH volume > 50 ml. The sum of points across all categories determines the SHE score. The 30-day mortality rate steadily increased as the SHE score increased for all SDH acuities. For patients with an acute SDH, the 30-day mortality rate was 3.2% for SHE score of 0, and the rate increased to 13.1%, 32.7%, 95.7%, and 100% for SHE scores of 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. The model was most accurate for acute SDH (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.94), although it still performed well for chronic (AUC = 0.80) and mixed-density (AUC = 0.87) SDH. The SHE score is a simple clinical grading scale that accurately stratifies patients' risk of mortality based on age, admission GCS score, and SDH volume. Use of the SHE score could improve counseling of patients and their families, allow for standardization of clinical treatment protocols, and facilitate clinical research studies in SDH.

Procalcitonin is not an independent predictor of 30-day mortality, albeit predicts pneumonia severity in patients with pneumonia acquired outside the hospital

BackgroundProcalcitonin (PCT) is a useful marker for pneumonia. However, its clinical usefulness in elderly patients has not been studied extensively. This study aimed to assess the relationship between PCT and prognosis and pneumonia severity in elderly patients with pneumonia acquired outside the hospital.MethodsData considered relevant to pneumonia severity and prognosis were retrospectively obtained from clinical charts of all patients with pneumonia who were admitted to our hospital from 2010 to 2017. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality in elderly patients (aged ≥75 years), and the relationship between PCT levels and pneumonia severity, as determined by the pneumonia severity index (PSI) was also examined.ResultsData were collected from 667 patients, of which 436 were elderly patients. Multivariate and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that albumin, body mass index, and PSI class rather than PCT are important factors related to 30-day mortality in elderly patients. PCT was also not an independent prognostic factor in younger patients. PCT levels significantly differed by pneumonia severity (mild, moderate, and severe) in both younger (p < 0.001) and elderly (p < 0.0001) patients, with levels increasing as severity increased. In contrast, C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and white blood cell counts did not significantly differ by pneumonia severity in younger and elderly patients. A subgroup analysis focused on Streptococcus pneumoniae pneumonia revealed that PCT levels differed by severity in elderly patients (p = 0.03), with levels increasing as severity increased.ConclusionPCT was not an independent predictor of 30-day mortality in both of elderly and younger patients. PCT levels, but not CRP levels, significantly increased with increasing pneumonia severity in younger and elderly patients, although the degree of increase tended to be lower in elderly patients compared to younger patients for the same severity. PCT levels also significantly increased with increasing pneumonia severity in elderly patients with Streptococcus pneumoniae pneumonia.

Outcome prediction with Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity score system in elderly patients submitted to elective surgery.

Context:Elderly patients have a higher risk of complications and 30-day mortality than younger patients. Population is aging and this is an emergent preoccupation.Aims:The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) system on 30-day mortality in elderly patients submitted to elective surgery. Additionally, the correlation of WHODAS 2.0 and Clinical Frailty Score (CFS) with mortality was evaluated.Settings and Design:An observational prospective study was conducted between May and July 2017.Methods and Material:Patients submitted to elective orthopedic, gynecologic, urologic, vascular, plastic, and general surgery were included. Exclusion criteria were as follows: age <60 years old; inability to give informed consent; emergency/urgency surgery, inability to understand Portuguese; patients admitted in the ICU after surgery. POSSUM was used to estimate postoperative mortality risk. WHODAS 2.0 and CFS were used to assess quality of life and health status. Mortality was evaluated during hospital stay and 30 days after surgery. area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) was analyzed to test the discrimination of P-POSSUM, WHODAS 2.0 and CFS scale.Statistical Analysis Used:Statistical analysis was done using the SPSS Software (version 24.0).Results:POSSUM-predicted mortality was 3.0% with a standardized mortality ratio = 0.87; 95% CI 0.62–0.93; and a good calibration (H–L: P = 0.646); however, the AUROC was poor (0.563). We identified an association between mortality and a higher CFS grade (P = 0.000 and AUROC = 0.859) and a higher WHODAS 2.0 score (P = 0.000 and AUROC = 0.808).Conclusions:WHODAS and CFS appear to be a better assessment tolls for predicting postoperative mortality with a good discrimination comparing with P-POSSUM system.

Predictive factors for thirtyday mortality in geriatric patients with hip fractures: a prospective study.

The study aims to analyze the incidence of 30-day mortality in elderly patients who underwent surgery for hip fractures and its associated factors. A prospective multicentric study was performed. All patients aged ≥ 65years, with fragility hip fractures, consecutively admitted in two Italian hospitals were included. Patients with periprosthetic or pathological fractures were excluded. Logistic regression was used to identify patient and patient care variables that independently influenced the 30-day mortality and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to assess their predictive capacity on the outcome. Of the patients, 728 met the inclusion criteria, of whom approximately 5% died within 30days after admission. The 45.7% of the deceased patients died while hospitalized. Multivariate analysis showed that advancing age was the only independent predictor of 30-day mortality (OR = 1.084, 95% CI = 1.024-1.147), while a higher presence of informal caregivers was a protective factor (OR = 0.988, 95% CI = 0.979-0.997). The area under the ROC curve of the model was 0.723 (CI95% 0.676-0.770) for 30-day mortality in elderly hip fractures patients. Patients with an advanced age need careful follow-up, especially within 30days following operation for hip fracture; at the same time, the presence of informal caregivers at the patient's bedside should be promoted.

Total pelvic exenteration for locally advanced and locally recurrent rectal cancer in the elderly

BackgroundTotal pelvic exenteration (TPE) is a radical approach for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) and locally recurrent rectal cancer (LRRC) in case of tumour invasion into the urogenitary tract. The aim of this study is to assess surgical and oncological outcomes of TPE for LARC and LRRC in elderly patients compared to younger patients. MethodsAll patients who underwent TPE for LARC and LRRC between January 1990 and March 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients aged <70 years were classified as younger and ≥70 years as elderly patients. ResultsIn total 126 patients underwent TPE, of whom 88 younger and 38 elderly patients. Elderly patients had a significantly higher number of ASA > II patients (p = 0.01). Indication for surgery LARC (n = 73) and LRRC (n = 53) did not differ significantly. The 30-day mortality rate was significantly higher (p = 0.01) in elderly (13%) compared to younger patients (3%). Elderly patients experienced more anastomotic leakage (p = 0.02). Median overall survival (OS) was 75 months [95%CI 37.1; 112.9] for elderly and 45 months [95%CI 22.4; 67.8] for younger patients (p = 0.77). The 5-year OS rate was 44% in both groups. Median disease specific survival (DSS) was 78 months [95%CI 69.1; 86.9] for elderly and 60 months [95%CI 36.6; 83.4] for younger patients (p = 0.34). The 5-year DSS rate was 57% and 49%, respectively. ConclusionTPE is an invasive treatment for rectal cancer with high 30-day mortality in elderly patients. Oncological outcomes are similar in elderly and younger patients. Therefore, TPE should not be withheld because of high age only, but careful patient selection is needed.

The Edmonton Frail Scale Improves the Prediction of 30-Day Mortality in Elderly Patients Undergoing Cardiac Surgery: A Prospective Observational Study

To investigate whether the Edmonton Frail Scale (EFS), a multidimensional frailty assessment tool, improves the prediction of 30-day or in-hospital mortality over the use of the European System for Cardiac Outcome Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II alone. Single-center prospective observational study. University hospital. Patients aged 75 years or older undergoing cardiac surgery between February 2014 and May 2017. No intervention was performed. The EFS was administered the day before surgery. The primary endpoint was 30-day or in-hospital mortality. Secondary endpoints were times to discharge from the intensive care unit (ICU) and from the hospital, discharge to a health care facility, and ability to return home by postoperative day 30. The EFS had a good discriminative ability for 30-day mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.56-0.82). Adding frailty, defined by an EFS ≥8, to the EuroSCORE II significantly improved the prediction of 30-day (p = 0.04) mortality. The integrated discrimination index was 0.03 (95% CI, 0.01-0.06, p = 0.01), meaning that the difference in predicted risk between patients who died and those who survived increased by 3% due to the addition of frailty determined by the EFS to the EuroSCORE II. Frailty also was associated significantly with a decreased cumulative probability of discharge from the ICU (p = 0.02) and an increased incidence of discharge to a health care facility (p = 0.01). The EFS has a good predictive ability for 30-day mortality after cardiac surgery in elderly patients and improves the prediction of 30-day mortality over the use of the EuroSCORE II.

GYM score: 30-day mortality predictive model in elderly patients attended in the emergency department with infection.

To determine the validity of the classic sepsis criteria or systemic inflammatory response syndrome (heart rate, respiratory rate, temperature, and leukocyte count) and the modified sepsis criteria (systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria plus glycemia and altered mental status), and the validity of each of these variables individually to predict 30-day mortality, as well as develop a predictive model of 30-day mortality in elderly patients attended for infection in emergency departments (ED). A prospective cohort study including patients at least 75 years old attended in three Spanish university ED for infection during 2013 was carried out. Demographic variables and data on comorbidities, functional status, hemodynamic sepsis diagnosis variables, site of infection, and 30-day mortality were collected. A total of 293 patients were finally included, mean age 84.0 (SD 5.5) years, and 158 (53.9%) were men. Overall, 185 patients (64%) fulfilled the classic sepsis criteria and 224 patients (76.5%) fulfilled the modified sepsis criteria. The all-cause 30-day mortality was 13.0%. The area under the curve of the classic sepsis criteria was 0.585 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.488-0.681; P=0.106], 0.594 for modified sepsis criteria (95% CI: 0.502-0.685; P=0.075), and 0.751 (95% CI: 0.660-0.841; P<0.001) for the GYM score (Glasgow <15; tachYpnea>20 bpm; Morbidity-Charlson index ≥3) to predict 30-day mortality, with statistically significant differences (P=0.004 and P<0.001, respectively). The GYM score showed good calibration after bootstrap correction, with an area under the curve of 0.710 (95% CI: 0.605-0.815). The GYM score showed better capacity than the classic and the modified sepsis criteria to predict 30-day mortality in elderly patients attended for infection in the ED.

Elderly Patients Strongly Benefit from Centralization of Pancreatic Cancer Surgery: A Population-Based Study.

Series from expert centers suggest that pancreas cancer surgery is safe for elderly patients but nationwide data, taking hospital volume into account, are lacking. From the Netherlands Cancer Registry, all 3420 patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) for primary pancreatic or periampullary carcinoma in 2005-2013 were selected. Associations between age (<75, ≥75years), hospital volume (tertiles), and postoperative mortality (30, 90day) were evaluated by χ (2) tests and logistic regression analyses. Overall survival was investigated by means of Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard regression analyses. The proportion of elderly patients (≥75years) undergoing PD increased from 15% in 2005-2007 to 20% in 2011-2013 (p=0.009). In low (<15per year), medium (15-28per year), and high (>28 per year) hospital volume tertiles, the proportion of elderly patients was 16, 20, and 17%, respectively (p=0.10). With increasing hospital volume, 30-day postoperative mortality was 6.0-4.5-2.9% (p=0.002) and 90-day mortality 9.3-8.0-5.3% (p=0.001), respectively. Within each volume tertile, adjusted 30- and 90-day mortality of elderly patients was 1.6-2.5 times higher compared to outcomes of younger patients. Adjusted 30-day mortality in elderly patients was higher in low-volume hospitals (odds ratio=2.87, 95% confidence interval 1.15-7.17) compared to high-volume hospitals. Similarly, elderly patients had a worse overall survival in low-volume hospitals (hazard ratio=1.28, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.63). Postoperative mortality of elderly patients in high-volume hospitals was similar to mortality of younger patients in low- and medium-volume hospitals. Elderly patients benefit from centralization by undergoing PD in high-volume hospitals, both with respect to postoperative mortality and survival. It would seem reasonable to place elderly patients into a high-risk category; they should only undergo surgery in the highest-tertile-volume hospitals.

Red cell distribution width and early mortality in elderly patients with severe sepsis and septic shock.

ObjectiveTo investigate the association of red cell distribution width (RDW) with 30-day mortality in elderly patients with severe sepsis and septic shock.MethodsPatients were recruited from a single tertiary emergency department. Patients with age over 65 years were selected. The main outcome was 30-day mortality. Potential confounders as Acute Physiologic and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score along with initial vital signs were collected. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of 30-day mortality. The discriminative ability of RDW for 30-day mortality was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.ResultsOverall, 458 patients were included. Univariate analysis showed that patients’ survival was significantly associated with sites of infection, comorbidities, and severity scores. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model, the RDW was an independent predictor of 30-day mortality (hazards ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.17; P<0.001).ConclusionIn this study, initial RDW values were significantly associated with 30-day mortality in older patients hospitalized with severe sepsis and septic shock.

ASA Grade and Elderly Patients With Femoral Neck Fracture

Purpose:This prospective study was designed to evaluate the effect of American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) score on time to surgery, length of hospital stay, and 30-day mortality in elderly patients with femoral neck fracture.Methods:A total of 249 patients admitted with femoral neck fracture were included in the study. Mean age was 84 years (95% confidence interval 83 to 85). Two patients were ASA I, 110 patients were ASA II, 125 were ASA III, and 12 were ASA IV.Results:The mean time to surgery was 18.9 hours for ASA I patients, 34.4 hours for ASA II patients, 42.8 hours for ASA III patients, and 61 hours for ASA IV patients (P = .005). The mean hospital stay was 11.5 days (6.3-15.2) for ASA I patients, 17.6 days (4.2-98.8) for ASA II patients, 22.9 days (4.1-120.3) for ASA III patients, and 29 days (2.4-86.0) for ASA IV patients (P = .026); 85% of the patients who died within 30 days of admission were of ASA III-IV.Conclusion:Our study shows that patients with higher ASA score have delay in surgery, longer hospital stay, and increase in 30-day mortality. We conclude that ASA grade is a simple and effective tool to predict the above-mentioned outcomes in these patients.

The influence of age on the outcome of treatment of elderly patients with colorectal cancer

We investigated factors associated with post-operative mortality rates in those aged ≥60, and in particular, the relative survival of age bands within this group. Secondary analysis of a large comprehensive cohort of the elderly treated for colorectal cancer in the North of England during 1998-2003. We investigated seven risk factors associated with 30-day and 6-month post-operative mortality from colorectal surgery. 6083 patients aged ≥60 underwent colorectal cancer surgery. Approximately 8% had died within 30 days of surgery and 17% had died within 6 months. Thirty-day mortality was greater in the elderly (80 years+) compared to the young-old (60-69 years) (adjusted OR: 3.2, 95% CI 2.4 to 4.4). There was neither a significant difference between the proportions offered curative resections across the age-groups, nor was there a significant association between intent of surgery and 30-day mortality. Six-month mortality rose with age, but the association was stronger in those having curative surgery (adjusted OR: 3.8, 95% CI 2.8 to 5.2) than palliative surgery (adjusted OR: 1.5, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.1). Mortality from emergency surgery at 6-months was particularly high in elderly females. This large population study adds more weight to the findings that age itself is a major risk factor in the outcome of colorectal surgery in elderly and that 30-day mortality underestimates the longer-term outcome in this age group. There was no significant association between radical resections and 30-day mortality in elderly patients compared to the younger age groups; however, a disproportionately higher mortality at 6 months was seen in elderly female patients.