Copeptin combined with National Early Warning Score for predicting survival in elderly critical ill patients at emergency department.

Abstract

Copeptin, reflecting vasopressin release, as well as the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), reflecting the severity of critical illness, might qualify for survival prediction in elderly patients with critical illness. This prospective observational study aims at assessing the predictive value of copeptin combined with NEWS on the prognosis of elderly critical ill patients at emergency department (ED). We analyzed serum copeptin levels and the NEWS at admission to the ED in a prospective, single-center, and observational study comprising 205 elderly patients with critical illness. Death within 30 days after admission to the ED was the primary end point. The serum copeptin levels and the NEWS in the non-survivor patients group were higher than those in the survivor group [30.35 (14.20, 38.91) vs 17.53 (13.01, 25.20), P = 0.001 and 9.0 (7.0-10.0) vs 7.0 (6.0-8.0), P = 0.001]. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that copeptin, NEWS and copeptin combined with NEWS were all independent risk factors for 30-day mortality in elderly patients with critical illness. Copeptin, NEWS and copeptin combined with NEWS all performed well in predicting 30-day survival, with area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of 0.766 (95%CI, 0.702-0.822), 0.797 (95%CI, 0.744-0.877) and 0.854 (95%CI, 0.798-0.899) respectively. Using the Z test to compare the areas under the above three curves, copeptin combined with NEWS showed a higher predictive value for 30-day survival (P < 0.05). As we calculated, the optimal cut-off values of copeptin and NEWS using the Youden index were 19.78 pg/mL and 8.5 points, respectively. Risk stratification analysis showed that patients with both copeptin levels higher than 19.78 pg/mL and NEWS points higher than 8.5 points had the highest risk of death. Copeptin combined with NEWS have a stronger predictive power on the prognosis of elderly patients with critical illness at ED, comparing to either factor individually.