Annual Mean Research Articles

Does incisor inclination change during orthodontic treatment affect gingival thickness and the width of keratinized gingiva? A prospective controlled study.

This prospective controlled study aimed to assess whether changes in mandibular incisor inclination during orthodontic treatment with fixed appliances affect gingival thickness (GT) and the width of keratinized gingiva (WKG), and having as reference an untreated group of participants. Forty consecutively recruited adult orthodontic patients and 40 untreated volunteers, matched for age and gender and selected from the same background population serving as controls, were included. Mandibular incisor inclination was measured in lateral cephalograms before treatment commencement (T0) and 1 month before fixed appliances' removal (T1). Gingival thickness was measured using an Ultrasound Device (US) and width of keratinized gingiva (WKG) using a standard periodontal probe within the frames of a full periodontal examination at T0, T1, and 1 year after bracket removal (T2), that is, at about 30 months from T1. Nineteen females and 21 males in each group [mean age in years (range): intervention group 23.1 (16.8-43.3); control: 21.85 (18.2-43.9)] were analysed. Overall, change in incisor proclination [mean change in Incisor Mandibular Angle Plane-IMPA (ΔIMPA) was 6.35° (SD 5.08°)] was not associated with any significant change in soft tissue thickness and with alterations in WKG. The group receiving fixed appliances did not exhibit thickening or thinning of GT in comparison to the control group; the WKG was reduced in the intervention group in comparison to the untreated group, where it essentially remained unchanged (#41: coeff.: -0.29, P value: .1, 95% CIs: -0.65, 0.06; #31: coeff.: -0.51, P value: .01, 95% CIs: -0.88, -0.14). Lower incisor proclination during orthodontic treatment does not appear to significantly alter GT and WKG, but orthodontic treatment, overall, leads to reduction of the WKG.

Malaria in Nepal: A Spatiotemporal Study of the Disease Distribution and Challenges on the Path to Elimination

Malaria incidence (MI) has significantly declined in Nepal, and this study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution and drivers of MI at the ward level. Data for malaria cases were obtained from the National Surveillance System from 2013 to 2021. Data for covariates, including annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and distance to the nearest city, were obtained from publicly available sources. A Bayesian spatial model was used to identify factors associated with the spatial distribution of MI. Between 2013 and 2021, 7278 malaria cases were reported in Nepal, with a crude incidence rate of 3.0 cases per 100,000 person-years at risk (PYR). MI showed a seasonal variation, with the highest number of cases reported between May and September. The annual MI decreased in recent years from 1.9 per 100,000 PYR in 2018 to 0.1 per 100,000 PYR in 2021. Spatial clustering of MI was observed at the ward level, with most hotspot areas detected in the western Terai plains and upper river valley (URV) areas. Incidence was associated with annual mean precipitation in mm (β = 0.201; 95% CrI: 0.042, 0.360). The shift of the malaria hotspots to the URVs presents a challenge for implementing timely prevention and control activities.

Anticoagulation control of warfarin in anticoagulation medication therapy adherence clinics

AbstractBackgroundWarfarin therapy remains essential in anticoagulation management and its quality is measured by the time in therapeutic range (TTR). In Malaysia, some healthcare centres provide the Anticoagulation Medication Therapy Adherence Clinic (ACMTAC) service for warfarin management, which is managed by pharmacists.AimTo evaluate overall TTR and to analyse the occurrence of thromboembolic and bleeding complications in warfarin patients.MethodThis cross‐sectional, retrospective cohort study included patients who received warfarin treatment over a 3‐year period (2019–2021). Data were collected from 49 healthcare centres in Malaysia with ACMTAC services. TTR was calculated using the Rosendaal method from international normalised ratio (INR) data acquired across these centres. TTR ≥ 65% was defined as good control of anticoagulation therapy. Ethical approval was granted by the Medical Research and Ethics Committee, Ministry of Health Malaysia (Reference no: NMRR‐ 21‐779‐59275) and the study conforms with the Declaration of Helsinki.ResultsThe mean age (±standard deviation [SD]) of the 1464 included patients was 60.3 (±13.1) years, and 732 (50.0%) were male. Atrial fibrillation (65.7%) and valve replacement (23.1%) were the main indications for warfarin therapy. From 2019 to 2021, the annual mean TTR (±SD) were 63.1% (±24.5%), 64.0% (±25.0%), and 64.1% (±26.3)% respectively. For three consecutive years, more than 49% of patients achieved good control of anticoagulation therapy. Among the 49 centres, over 24 (49.0%) achieved a mean TTR of ≥65%, and the mean TTR varied significantly between centres (p < 0.001). The occurrence of bleeding and thromboembolic events was 227 (15.5%) and 15 (1.0%) respectively.ConclusionIn Malaysia, the anticoagulation control of warfarin under ACMTAC management is moderate, with about half of patients demonstrating good control levels. Over a 3‐year observation period, there was variation in TTR among the centres.

Understanding Nocturnally-driven Extreme Precipitation Events over Lake Victoria in a Convection-Permitting Model

Abstract Each year on the order of 1000 fishers are lost on Lake Victoria (LV) due to hazardous weather and intense nighttime thunderstorms making LV one of the most hazardous lakes in the world. In this study we present a 10-year (2006-2015) convection-permitting (3km grid-spacing) simulation of the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) using the non-hydrostatic version of the regional model RegCM (RegCM-NH). We construct composites of three different types of events over the lake during nighttime and early morning hours: 1) Dry events in which no rain fell over the lake, 2) Normal events in which rainfall over LV matches that of the annual mean, and 3) Extreme events in which rainfall exceeded the 99.99th percentile. In Extreme, an enhanced land breeze takes place along the western side of LV, resulting from convection along the high terrain to the west of the lake in the early evening and nighttime hours which cool the boundary layer through evaporative cooling, cold pools, and prolonged radiatively driven cooling. Cold pools are identified as playing a role in the triggering of convection over the lake, and/or the propagation of convection during Extreme events. Greater dynamical forcing in the lead up to an event exists in Extreme relative to Normal, while convective instability over LV is similar in Extreme and Normal. Dry events exhibit hazardous wind conditions over the lake occurring outside the main rainy season.

Assessment of Occupational Radiation Exposure Among Various Medical Professions in Interventional Cardiology: A Five-Year Study (2018-2022)

Background: Occupational radiation exposure in medical settings is a growing concern, especially in interventional cardiology. This study aims to assess the occupational radiation exposure among medical personnel in interventional cardiology from 2018 to 2022. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of the annual mean effective doses (AMED) and the average over a five-year period (MED-5y) among various medical professionals, including anesthesiologists, cardiologists, nurses, radiologists, and radiologic technologists. The effective doses were estimated using thermoluminescent dosimeters and analyzed to compute the AMED and MED-5y. Statistical significance was determined using T-tests and ANOVA, with subsequent Tukey Post-Hoc Tests for specific group comparisons. Results: The AMED varied significantly among professions, with cardiologists experiencing the highest exposure (3.469 ± 7.81 mSv in 2022). An overall increase in AMED doses was observed from 2018 to 2022. The results of the T-Test showed a significant difference in the radiation exposure across the years under study (p < .001). The MED-5y were anesthesiologists (0.62 ± 0.30), cardiologists (3.23 ± 7.37), nurses (1.17 ± 0.56), radiologic technologists (1.13 ± 0.38), and radiologists (0.86 ± 0.26). The study also found significant differences in MED-5y across professions (F = 14.8, p < .001). Gender-based analysis indicated significant differences in MED-5y, particularly among nurses and radiologists. Conclusion: The results of this study revealed that the annual effective dose received by anesthesiologists, cardiologists, nurses, radiologists, and radiologic technologists was below the recommended occupational dose limit of 20 mSv per year, as stipulated by both national and international standards.

Role of Infiltration on Land–Atmosphere Feedbacks in Central Europe: Fully Coupled WRF-Hydro Simulations Evaluated with Cosmic-Ray Neutron Soil Moisture Measurements

Abstract The skill of regional climate models partly relies on their ability to represent land–atmosphere feedbacks in a realistic manner, through coupling with a land surface model. However, these models often suffer from insufficient or erroneous information on soil hydraulic parameters. In this study, the fully coupled land–atmosphere model WRF-Hydro driven with ERA5 reanalysis is employed to reproduce the regional climate over central Europe with a horizontal resolution of 4 km for the period 2017–20. Simulated soil moisture is compared with data from cosmic-ray neutron sensors (CRNSs) at three terrestrial environmental observatories. Soil hydraulic parameters from continental and global digital soil datasets (SoilGrids and EU-SoilHydroGrids), together with Campbell and van Genuchten–Mualem retention curve equations, are used to assess the role of infiltration on modeled land–atmosphere feedbacks. The percolation parameter is calibrated to better capture observed discharge amounts in the observatories. WRF-Hydro with Campbell and SoilGrids gives the lowest mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation differences compared to the E-OBS product from European Climate Assessment and Dataset, which is achieved by reducing soil moisture in the rootzone, increasing air temperature, and decreasing precipitation through a positive soil moisture–precipitation feedback process. WRF-Hydro with van Genuchten–Mualem and EU-SoilHydroGrids best reproduces CRNS soil moisture daily variations, despite enhanced positive biases that generate a larger proportion of convective precipitation favored over wet soils and spurious discharge peaks. This study demonstrates the importance of infiltration processes to realistically reproduce land–atmosphere feedbacks. Significance Statement The ability to correctly reproduce the feedbacks between land and atmosphere is crucial for a regional climate model. This study shows that the nature of these land–atmosphere feedbacks is partly related to the description of soil infiltration, which potentially helps to improve regional climate modeling results. An updated method to disentangle the proportion of convective precipitation being favored over wet, dry, and mixed soils is provided, which sheds new light on the soil moisture–precipitation feedback mechanism.

Assessment of the Rainfed Wheat Productivity in a Changing Climate in Irbid, Jordan Using Statistical Downscaling and Random Forest Regression Prediction Under RCP4.5 & 8.5 Pathways.

Jordan faces risks associated with climate change and endeavors to sustain resources through the SDGs. This study examines the impacts of climate change on rainfed wheat productivity in Irbid Governorate during the historical period (1994-2021) and simulated for the future (2024-2100) using climate models (SDGs 1, 2, 11, 12, 13, & 15). Monthly precipitation, mean temperature, and annual wheat yield data were collected for the period (1994-2021) and analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test with Sen’s slope to investigate the historical trends and elaborate Phi-k correlation coefficient to determine their association. Monthly precipitation and mean temperature projections were collected from CSIRO-MK3.6.0 & GFDL-ESM2M CMIP5 ensemble models under two concentration pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The projections were biased and corrected by the dynamic bilinear interpolation method and Delta, EQM, and QM statistical downscaling to enhance the projections' reliability and performance in capturing the region's climate. Taylor diagram was utilized to choose the best model to represent observed data. Cumulative Distribution Function and Probability Density Function Curves were plotted to describe the changes over decades based on climate models. Future wheat yields were predicted using the Random Forest Regression model. The results revealed a non-significant increase in total annual precipitation of 1.8% and 13.8% and a rise in annual mean temperature of 5.4% and 2.7% for Irbid and Baqura stations, respectively during the baseline timeframe on which wheat yield increased by 21.3%. The CSIRO model outperformed the GFDL model with greater fidelity in simulating historical monthly precipitation and mean temperatures. The CSIRO-MK3.6.0 model indicates precipitation and temperature shifts for near and far future periods. Temperature increases are expected to have more severe impacts in the far future (2073-2100) while projected decreases in precipitation of 0.06 mm/day and 0.10 mm/day under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 affect yield reductions by 11.42 kg/ha and 12.21 kg/ha. Temperature increases of 2.7°C and 4.1°C under RCP 4.5 & 8.5 correspond to yield decreases of 24.825 kg/ha and 33.395 kg/ha, respectively. The study highlights the need for enhanced adaptation strategies; cultivating resilient wheat varieties, promoting crop rotation, improving meteorological monitoring and risk response approaches, and providing timely weather forecasts to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on wheat productivity and ensure sustainable agriculture in Jordan.

Influenza vaccine averted illnesses in Chile, Guyana, and Paraguay during 2013-2018: a standardized approach to assess value of vaccination.

To better establish the value of vaccination against influenza viruses, we estimated vaccine-averted influenza illnesses among young children and older adults in Chile, Guyana, and Paraguay. We gathered country- and target population-specific data on monthly influenza hospitalizations, vaccine coverage, and vaccine effectiveness from surveillance records and immunization registries during 2013-2018. We applied a static compartmental model to estimate differences in the number influenza-associated respiratory disease events (symptomatic non-hospitalized illnesses, medically attended illnesses, hospitalizations) in the presence and absence of influenza vaccination programs. Between 2013 and 2018, vaccinating 68% of children aged 6-23 months in Chile averted an annual mean of 14,617 non-hospitalized, 9,426 medically attended, and 328 hospitalized influenza illnesses; vaccinating 28% of children aged 6-23 months in Paraguay averted 1,115 non-hospitalized, 719 medically attended, and 25 hospitalized influenza illnesses. Vaccinating 59% of older adults in Chile averted an annual mean of 83,429 non-hospitalized, 37,079 medically attended, and 1,390 hospitalized influenza illnesses; vaccinating 36% of older adults in Paraguay averted an annual mean of 3,932 non-hospitalized, 1,748 medically attended, and 66 hospitalized influenza illnesses. In Guyana, a hypothetical campaign vaccinating 30% of children <5 years could have prevented an annual 1,496 non-hospitalized, 971 medically attended, and 10 hospitalized influenza illnesses. Vaccinating 30% of adults ≥65 years could have prevented 568 non-hospitalized, 257 medically attended, and 10 hospitalized influenza illnesses. Influenza vaccination averted tens of thousands of illnesses and thousands of hospitalizations in Chile and Paraguay; influenza vaccination could have had a proportional benefit in Guyana.

Net Health System Costs of Parkinson Disease: A Propensity Score-Matched Health Administrative Data Cohort Study in Ontario, Canada.

Few estimates of the long-term health system costs of Parkinson disease by phase of disease are available. We estimated 10-year and phase-based net health system costs of Parkinson disease before and after case ascertainment. Using population-based linked administrative databases from Ontario, Canada, we identified 43,149 community-dwelling persons with incident Parkinson disease aged 40 years and older between 2009 and 2018 using a validated algorithm. These individuals were matched 1:1 to controls without Parkinson disease based on demographics and a propensity score. We calculated phase-based, net health system costs from the provincial government perspective during the preascertainment (3 years before index), initial (1 year after index), early continuing (>1-6 years after index), later continuing (>6-10 years after index), and terminal (1 year before death, if applicable) phases (standardized to 2020 $CAD and calculated on an annual basis). By applying survival probabilities to monthly cost estimates, we also determined 10-year net health system costs, stratified by sex and age. Annual mean net costs of Parkinson disease were lowest in the preascertainment phase ($212 CAD, 95% CI [$20-$404]), intermediate in the initial phase ($4,576 (95% CI [$4,217-$4,935]), and higher in the early continuing phase ($7,078, 95% CI [$6,717-$7,438]). The later continuing phase ($12,500, 95% CI [$12,060-$12,940]) and the terminal phase ($13,933, 95% CI [$13,123-$14,743]) showed the highest costs. The 10-year net cost of Parkinson disease was $82,153 (95% CI [$77,965-$86,341]) and was significantly higher in women ($89,773, 95% CI [$83,306-$96,240]) than in men ($76,469, 95% CI [$70,983-$81,953]) and older individuals ($92,197, 95% CI [$87,087-$97,307]), compared with younger individuals ($62,580, 95% CI [$55,346-$69,814]). Over the 10-year period, hospital, nursing home, and home care were the largest contributors to costs of Parkinson disease. Health system costs of Parkinson disease are substantial, particularly in the later phases. Interventions to reduce avoidable use of hospital and nursing home services by persons living with Parkinson disease may provide better quality of life and be cost saving from the health system perspective.

Machine learning-enhanced high-resolution exposure assessment of ultrafine particles

Ultrafine particles (UFPs) under 100 nm pose significant health risks inadequately addressed by traditional mass-based metrics. The WHO emphasizes particle number concentration (PNC) for assessing UFP exposure, but large-scale evaluations remain scarce. In this study, we developed a stacking-based machine learning framework integrating data-driven and physical-chemical models for a national-scale UFP exposure assessment at 1 km spatial and 1-hour temporal resolutions, leveraging long-term standardized PNC measurements in Switzerland. Approximately 20% (1.7 million) of the Swiss population experiences high UFP exposure exceeding an annual mean of 104 particles‧cm−3, with a national average of (9.3 ± 4.7)×103 particles‧cm−3, ranging from (5.5 ± 2.3)×103 (rural) to (1.4 ± 0.5)×104 particles‧cm−3 (urban). A nonlinear relationship is identified between the WHO-recommended 1-hour and 24-hour exposure reference levels, suggesting their non-interchangeability. UFP spatial heterogeneity, quantified by coefficient of variation, ranges from 4.7 ± 4.2 (urban) to 13.8 ± 15.1 (rural) times greater than PM2.5. These findings provide crucial insights for the development of future UFP standards.

Can a Projected Image Test Replace the Traditional Gross Anatomy Spot Test?

Introduction: Conducting traditional gross anatomy spot (spotter/tag) (3D) in the laboratory is becoming increasingly difficult due to the large number of students and shortage of staff. This study aimed to assess the practicality of conducting projected gross anatomy image test (2D) conducted in a lecture hall for first year medical undergraduates and assessing their performance and attitudes towards this form of testing. Material and Methods: First-year medical undergraduates were subject to two forms of gross anatomy testing in the form of traditional spot test (3D) and projected gross anatomy image test (2D). An online questionnaire was administered to the students to gain information regarding their attitudes regarding the two types of examinations. Descriptive analysis and one-sample T-test was used to compare the results . Results: Sample consisted of 248 students. There were 149 females (60%). Mean age in years was 21.34 (SD=2.3). The mean projected image test scores out of hundred was 70% (SD=3.14). The mean score for the OSPE component of the Y1S1 examination was 63.3% (SD=4.11). The observe difference in the means was statistically significant (p&lt;0.001). Conclusion: While the projected gross anatomy image test (2D) was less time consuming and easy to setup and the students performed better in it they prefer the gross anatomy spot (3D) type of test. Both types have their advantages and disadvantages and maybe used in combination to reduce examination time and invigilator requirements.

Isolation by environment is more important than isolation by distance along a tropical gradient in direct developing frogs

Abstract Abiotic factors are important for defining population structure and limiting gene flow, especially in ectotherm species. In amphibians, abiotic factors like temperature and precipitation can facilitate or restrict gene flow. The challenge is identifying if these factors can lead to a pattern of isolation by environment. Our study aims to quantify the extent to which divergence is driven by abiotic factors such as temperature, precipitation and elevation. To do so, we used a direct-developing frog species, Craugastor loki that occurs along a steep elevation gradient. Using restriction-site associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) from individuals collected from 100 m to 2250 m of elevation across 13 localities at Sierra Madre de Chiapas in southern Mexico, we described population structure using a variety of model-based clustering and landscape genomics approaches. We found that populations sampled at higher elevation probably correspond to an undescribed new species of Craugastor, and that populations from Craugastor loki between 120 m and 1500 m are clustered in two different genetic groups: a Pacific slope group and a Central Depression slope group. We found signatures of isolation by environment more important than isolation by distance in contributing to genetic divergence in this group of frogs at a fine scale. The environmental variables such as: mean temperature of wettest and warmest quarter, annual mean temperature, and seasonality in temperature and precipitation play an important role on population differentiation. Our results underscore the importance of abiotic factors as drivers of genetic differentiation and highlight the use of different approaches to illuminate fine scale population divergence given the complexity of disentangling the contribution of both patterns of isolation.

Variation of Surface Pollutants and Their Influence on Lightning Development in the Urban Cities of Northern India

ABSTRACTLightning development and its variation with surface pollutants like particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were investigated in two urban cities of northern India, one from the high‐altitude region Haldwani (Uttarakhand) and the other from Indo‐Gangetic plain region, Agra (Uttar Pradesh). Lightning data is retrieved from Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) aboard the International Space Station (ISS) satellite for the period (2018–2022). Surface pollutants data is obtained from Uttar Pradesh Pollution Control Board for the same period. In the high altitude Haldwani region, it is observed that SO2 is very well correlated (CC = 0.95) with lightning flash frequency compared to other surface pollutants PM10 and NO2 in the pre‐monsoon season (March–May). Annual mean values of lightning and concentration of surface pollutants in both study regions indicate that lightning frequency is higher in the high‐altitude region of Haldwani than Agra, which is situated in the Indo‐Gangetic plain region of Uttar Pradesh. No significant correlation is observed between lightning and meteorological variables in Haldwani region. However, a significant correlation is observed between lightning and 2‐m air temperature in Agra. A distinct relation is observed between lightning and surface pollutants in the high‐altitude region of Haldwani and the Indo‐Gangetic plain region of Agra. The present study shows that high concentrations of SO2, associated with intense convection, are one of the reasons for the high lightning frequency in the high‐altitude region of Haldwani.

Long-Term Greenness Effects of Urban Forests to Reduce PM10 Concentration: Does the Impact Benefit the Population Vulnerable to Asthma?

This study investigates the effect of urban forests in reducing particulate matter (PM) concentrations and its subsequent impact on the number of asthma care visits. Understanding the mechanisms behind the relationship between the greenness of blocking forests and the reduction in PM is crucial for assessing the associated human health benefits. This study analyzed the influencing factors for reducing long-term PM10 concentrations, utilizing the vegetation index and meteorological variables. Results showed that the reduction in PM10 began in 2011, five years after the establishment of the blocking forest. The annual mean PM10 concentrations decreased significantly, driven primarily by summer wind speed and summer Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), explaining approximately 62% of the variation. A decrease in the number of asthma care visits was observed, similar to the trend of PM10 reduction in the residential area and the increase in the greenness of the blocking forest. The influx of PM into the city, primarily driven by prevailing northwesterly winds, may have been mitigated by the growing blocking forest, contributing to a reduction in asthma-related medical visits among urban residents. In particular, since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the increase in the PM2.5/PM10 ratio in residential areas has become more closely linked to the increase in asthma-related medical visits. It suggests another PM2.5 emission source in the residential area. The number of asthma care visits among children (under 11) and the elderly (over 65) exhibited a strong positive correlation with PM10 levels and a negative correlation with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). This suggests a link between air quality improvement from the greenness of blocking forests with their capacity to capture PM and respiratory health outcomes, especially for the vulnerable groups to asthma. These findings highlight the need to manage pollutant sources such as transportation and the heating system in residential areas beyond industrial emissions as the point pollution source. The management policies have to focus on protecting vulnerable populations, such as children and the elderly, by implementing small-sized urban forests to adsorb the PM2.5 within the city and establishing blocking forests to prevent PM10 near the industrial complex.

Drivers of amphibian species richness in European ponds

Amphibians are commonly occurring inhabitants of most lentic freshwater ecosystems, yet their global populations are in alarming decline. Ponds in particular play a crucial role in supporting amphibian biodiversity. In this study, we identified the main drivers influencing amphibian species richness by conducting a comprehensive ecological characterization in 201 ponds across seven European countries spanning a large latitudinal and longitudinal gradient. The amphibian species richness in each of these ponds was assessed using environmental DNA metabarcoding on water samples. The relative influence of climatic, local abiotic and biotic, and land use variables on variation in species richness across ponds was quantified using boosted regression trees. Our results suggest that local factors, particularly chlorophyll‐a concentration, but also pond area and depth, are the main drivers of amphibian richness, together with climatic variables such as annual mean precipitation and temperature. The highest richness was observed in low‐nutrient, fishless, intermediate‐sized, shallow ponds, located in warmer regions with higher precipitation rates. These potential drivers of amphibian richness should be considered in the planning and implementation of amphibian conservation and management actions.

Long-Term Trends of Lake Surface Water Temperatures in Lowland Polish Temperate Lakes

In this study, long-term lake surface water temperature (LSWT) data were used to investigate the impact of climate change on thermal conditions in 25 Polish lowland lakes. The results show that the warming rate of the annual mean LSWT ranges from 0.14 °C per decade to 0.69 °C per decade with an average value of 0.44 °C per decade. The annual maximum LSWT presented the strongest warming trend, with the warming rate varying between 0.26 °C per decade and 1.06 °C per decade (average value of 0.65 °C per decade). Warming rates were observed in all seasons but with different intensities, with warming rates increasing from spring to autumn and then to summer. The warming rate of the summer LSWT varied between 0.29 °C per decade and 0.87 °C per decade with an average value of 0.56 °C per decade. Conversely, winter and annual minimum LSWTs did not present clear increasing trends. The increase in the annual maximum, annual average, and seasonal LSWTs correlated well with the inter-annual variability in air temperature. To understand the relationship between LSWT and air temperature, the non-linear regression model (S-curve) was used in this study. The results indicate that the non-linear regression model can help to present the relationship between LSWT and air temperature in the studied lakes (the average values of the root mean squared error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) are 1.68 °C, 1.28 °C, and 0.95, respectively). The warming trends of LSWTs observed for the studied lakes in Poland are coherent and in some cases larger than the data from other lakes worldwide, and should be seriously considered by policy makers.

Climatological Annual Mean and Seasonal Variations in Spatial Energy Spectra of Satellite-Observed Sea-Surface Chlorophyll-a Concentration in the East China Sea

The hourly L2-level chlorophyll-a (CHL-a) concentration spatial energy spectra of GOCI-II from 2021 to 2023 are employed to investigate the characteristics of the CHL-a spatial energy spectrum slopes in three regions of the East China Sea, namely nearshore, offshore, and open ocean. The seasonal trends of the spatial energy spectrum slopes are also examined for the nearshore and offshore regions. It is observed that the slopes of the CHL-a spatial energy spectrum are −2 at scales larger than 5 km, whereas at smaller scales, they are −5/3, −1, and −0.3 from the nearshore region to the open sea, respectively. On the larger scales, the spatial energy spectrum slopes are consistent with surface quasi-geostrophic (sQG) theory, but this is not the case on smaller scales. An insufficient regional CHL-a concentration leads to a flattening of the slope at the smaller scales. On the submesoscale, the slope of the nearshore CHL-a concentration spatial energy spectrum is steeper in summer and flatter in winter, a pattern that contrasts with changes observed offshore. This seasonal variation is attributed to the southward flow of ZheMin Coastal Current (ZMCC) during winter, which carries freshwater and enhances the horizontal buoyancy gradient in the nearshore region.

Forecasting contrail climate forcing for flight planning and air traffic management applications: the CocipGrid model in pycontrails 0.51.0

Abstract. The global annual mean contrail climate forcing may exceed that of aviation's cumulative CO2 emissions. As only 2 %–3 % of all flights are likely responsible for 80 % of the global annual contrail energy forcing (EFcontrail), re-routing these flights could reduce the occurrence of strongly warming contrails. Here, we develop a contrail forecasting tool that produces global maps of persistent contrail formation and their EFcontrail formatted to align with standard weather and turbulence forecasts for integration into existing flight planning and air traffic management workflows. This is achieved by extending the existing trajectory-based contrail cirrus prediction model (CoCiP), which simulates contrails formed along flight paths, to a grid-based approach that initializes an infinitesimal contrail segment at each point in a 4D spatiotemporal grid and tracks them until their end of life. Outputs are provided for N aircraft-engine groups, with groupings based on similarities in aircraft mass and engine particle number emissions: N=7 results in a 3 % mean error between the trajectory- and grid-based CoCiP, while N=3 facilitates operational simplicity but increases the mean error to 13 %. We use the grid-based CoCiP to simulate contrails globally using 2019 meteorology and compare its forecast patterns with those from previous studies. Two approaches are proposed to apply these forecasts for contrail mitigation: (i) monetizing EFcontrail and including it as an additional cost parameter within a flight trajectory optimizer or (ii) constructing polygons to avoid airspace volumes with strongly warming contrails. We also demonstrate a probabilistic formulation of the grid-based CoCiP by running it with ensemble meteorology and excluding grid cells with significant uncertainties in the simulated EFcontrail. This study establishes a working standard for incorporating contrail mitigation into flight management protocols and demonstrates how forecasting uncertainty can be incorporated to minimize unintended consequences associated with increased CO2 emissions from re-routes.

Temperature effects on the impact of two invasive parasitic copepods on the survival, growth, condition, and reproduction of native mussels

An increase in temperature due to climate change may affect the geographic ranges of invasive parasites and alter their impact on native hosts. Our goal was to determine if the effects of infection by two species of invasive endoparasitic copepods on native blue mussel hosts (Mytilus edulis) change with increasing temperatures. We investigated this with a laboratory experiment using temperatures that represent annual mean and mean summer water temperatures of past observations and future predictions for the study area, the European Wadden Sea (10–26 °C). Over a period of 8–20 weeks, infection with Mytilicola intestinalis lowered mussel condition and infection with Mytilicola orientalis decreased mussel shell growth. High temperatures decreased mussel growth and condition in general, but only at low temperatures (10–14 °C) the parasite-induced loss of condition was evident compared to uninfected mussels. Mussel mortality and reproductive activity were not affected by parasite infection, although both were impacted by temperature: the highest temperature (26 °C) increased mussel mortality, and gamete ripening only occurred at lower temperatures (10–18 °C). Taken together, these results suggest that both infection and high temperatures have independent negative effects. However, an increase in temperature does not worsen the effect of infection on individual mussel hosts, and neither does infection decrease host tolerance for long-term exposure to high temperatures. These findings add to our understanding of the interplay between increasing temperature and the interaction between invasive parasites and native hosts, and help predicting host and parasite dynamics in systems affected by species invasions and climate change.

Trends in Flow Intermittency, Variability, and Seasonality for Taiwan Rivers

In Taiwan, rivers have steep slopes and short lengths, making it difficult to retain water in the rivers. Therefore, understanding the flow characteristics is essential. This study analyzes data from 65 flow stations with over 30 years of records to characterize the annual mean number of low-flow days, flow variability, and the seasonality of low-flow occurrences. The analysis uses indices such as the intermittency ratio, Richards–Baker flashiness index, and six-month seasonality of the dry period (SD6) and evaluates trends in these indices using the Mann–Kendall test. The results show that nearly 70% of the stations have an intermittency ratio of less than 0.1, although the number of low-flow days has significantly increased over time. Stations in the southwestern watersheds exhibit higher flow variability; however, the trends in flow variability are not statistically significant. Low-flow events predominantly occur during the dry season, with 68% of the stations experiencing them between January and March. The findings on flow characteristics and their long-term trends provide references for river management and water resource planning in the future.