10-year Trajectories Research Articles

10-year trajectory of Life’s Essential 8 and incident hypertension: a community-based cohort study

BackgroundThe health effects of Life’s Essential 8 (LE8) on chronic diseases have been disclosed, but its association with hypertension remains unknown. The current study aimed to explore the potential link between 10-year LE8 trajectory and the incidence of hypertension.MethodsLE8 was constructed from four behaviors and four metabolic factors, ranging from 0 to 100. Latent mixture models were used to identify trajectories of LE8 scores during 2006 to 2016. Incident hypertension was diagnosed based on self-reported clinical diagnoses and physical examinations from 2016 to 2020. Cox models were employed to assess the association of LE8 trajectories with hypertension. In addition to incorporating the mean hs-CRP levels from 2006 to 2016, age, sex, monthly income, educational level, and occupation at recruitment were adjusted for as confounding factors.Results7500 participants aged 40.28 ± 10.35 years were included in the study, of whom 2907 (38.76%) were women. Five LE8 trajectory patterns were identified. After around four-year follow-up, 667 hypertension events were observed. Compared to the Low-Stable trajectory, the hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the Moderate-Increasing, Moderate-Decreasing, Moderate-Stable, and High-Stable trajectories were 0.51 (0.40, 0.65), 0.81 (0.64, 1.02), 0.45 (0.36, 0.58), 0.23 (0.16, 0.33), respectively. The risk of incident hypertension decreased as participants improved their LE8 status. The robustness of the primary results was confirmed through several sensitivity analyses.ConclusionsLE8 trajectories were associated with the incident hypertension. People who improved their LE8 scores over time experienced a decreased risk of hypertension, even if they started with lower LE8 scores initially.

10-year outcome trajectories of people with mental illness and their families who receive services from multidisciplinary case management and outreach teams: protocol of a multisite longitudinal study

IntroductionIndividuals with mental illness and their families often undergo their recovery process in their communities. This study explored the long-term outcome trajectories of individuals and families who received case management...

EPS6.07 Costs by circumstances of diagnosis and 10-year cost trajectory in children with cystic fibrosis in France

EPS6.07 Costs by circumstances of diagnosis and 10-year cost trajectory in children with cystic fibrosis in France

10-Year Multimorbidity Trajectories in Older People Have Limited Benefit in Predicting Short-Term Health Outcomes in Comparison to Standard Multimorbidity Thresholds: A Population-Based Study.

To identify multimorbidity trajectories among older adults and to compare their health outcome predictive performance with that of cross-sectional multimorbidity thresholds (eg, ≥2 chronic conditions (CCs)). We performed a population-based longitudinal study with a random sample of 99,411 individuals aged >65 years on April 1, 2019. Using health administrative data, we calculated for each individual the yearly CCs number from 2010 to 2019 and constructed the trajectories with latent class growth analysis. We used logistic regression to determine the increase in predictive capacity (c-statistic) of multimorbidity trajectories and traditional cross-sectional indicators (≥2, ≥3, or ≥4 CCs, assessed in April 2019) over that of a baseline model (including age, sex, and deprivation). We predicted 1-year mortality, hospitalization, polypharmacy, and frequent general practitioner, specialist, or emergency department visits. We identified eight multimorbidity trajectories, each representing between 3% and 25% of the population. These trajectories exhibited trends of increasing, stable, or decreasing number of CCs. When predicting mortality, the 95% CI for the increase in the c-statistic for multimorbidity trajectories [0.032-0.044] overlapped with that of the ≥3 indicator [0.037-0.050]. Similar results were observed when predicting other health outcomes and with other cross-sectional indicators. Multimorbidity trajectories displayed comparable health outcome predictive capacity to those of traditional cross-sectional multimorbidity indicators. Given its ease of calculation, continued use of traditional multimorbidity thresholds remains relevant for population-based multimorbidity surveillance and clinical practice.

20-Year trajectories of six psychopathological dimensions in patients with first-episode psychosis: Could they be predicted?

Patients with first-episode psychoses (FEP) exhibit heterogeneity in clinical manifestations and outcomes. This study investigated the long-term trajectories of six key psychopathological dimensions (reality-distortion, negative, disorganization, catatonia, mania and depression) in patients diagnosed with FEP.A total of 243 patients were followed up for 20 years and the trajectories of the dimensions were analysed using growth mixture modelling. These dimensions showed varied course patterns, ranging from two to five trajectories. Additionally, the study examined the predictive value of different factors in differentiating between the long-term trajectories.The exposome risk score showed that familial load, distal and intermediate risk factors, acute psychosocial stressors and acute onset were significant predictors for differentiating between long-term psychopathological trajectories. In contrast, polygenic risk score, duration of untreated psychosis and duration of untreated illness demonstrated little or no predictive value.The findings highlight the importance of conducting a multidimensional assessment not only at FEP but also during follow-up to customize the effectiveness of interventions. Furthermore, the results emphasize the relevance of assessing premorbid predictors from the onset of illness. This may enable the identification of FEP patients at high-risk of poor long-term outcomes who would benefit from targeted prevention programs on specific psychopathological dimensions.

Rationale, design, and cohort characteristics of the Action for Health in Diabetes Aging study.

Diabetes and overweight/obesity are described as accelerating aging processes, yet many individuals with these conditions maintain high levels of cognitive and physical function and independence late into life. The Look AHEAD Aging study is designed to identify 20-year trajectories of behaviors, risk factors, and medical history associated with resilience against geriatric syndromes and aging-related cognitive and physical functional deficits among individuals with these conditions. Look AHEAD Aging extends follow-up of the cohort of the former 10-year Look AHEAD trial. The original cohort (N = 5145) was enrolled in 2001 to 2004 when participants were aged 45 to 76 years and randomly assigned to a multidomain intensive lifestyle intervention (ILI) or a diabetes support and education (DSE) condition. The trial interventions ceased in 2012. Clinic-based follow-up continued through 2020. In 2021, the cohort was invited to enroll in Look AHEAD Aging, an additional 4-year telephone-based follow-up (every 6 months) enhanced with Medicare linkage. Standardized protocols assess multimorbidity, physical and cognitive function, health care utilization, and health-related quality of life. Of the original N = 5145 Look AHEAD participants, N = 1552 active survivors agreed to participate in Look AHEAD Aging. At consent, the cohort's mean age was 76 (range 63 to 94) years and participants had been followed for a mean of 20 years. Of the original Look AHEAD enrollees, those who were younger, female, or with no history of cardiovascular disease were more likely to be represented in the Look AHEAD Aging cohort. Intervention groups were comparable with respect to age, diabetes duration, body mass index, insulin use, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and cognitive function. ILI participants had significantly lower deficit accumulation index scores. By continuing the long-term follow-up of an extensively characterized cohort of older individuals with type 2 diabetes, Look AHEAD Aging is well positioned to identify factors associated with resilience against aging-related conditions.

20-year trajectories of positive and negative symptoms after the first psychotic episode in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorder: results from the OPUS study.

This study aimed to identify the 20-year trajectories of positive and negative symptoms after the first psychotic episode in a sample of patients with an ICD-10 diagnosis of schizophrenia spectrum disorder, and to investigate the baseline characteristics and long-term outcomes associated with these trajectories. A total of 373 participants in the OPUS trial were included in the study. Symptoms were assessed at baseline and after 1, 2, 5, 10 and 20 years using the Scales for the Assessment of Positive and Negative Symptoms. We used latent class growth mixture modelling to identify trajectories, and multinominal regression analyses to investigate predictors of membership to identified trajectories. Five trajectories of positive symptoms were identified: early continuous remission (50.9% of the sample), stable improvement (18.0%), intermittent symptoms (10.2%), relapse with moderate symptoms (11.9%), and continuous severe symptoms (9.1%). Substance use disorder (odds ratio, OR: 2.83, 95% CI: 1.09-7.38, p=0.033), longer duration of untreated psychosis (OR: 1.02, 95% CI: 1.00-1.03, p=0.007) and higher level of negative symptoms (OR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.07-2.39, p=0.021) were predictors of the relapse with moderate symptoms trajectory, while only longer duration of untreated psychosis (OR: 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00-1.02, p=0.030) predicted membership to the continuous severe symptoms trajectory. Two trajectories of negative symptoms were identified: symptom remission (51.0%) and continuous symptoms (49.0%). Predictors of the continuous symptoms trajectory were male sex (OR: 3.03, 95% CI: 1.48-6.02, p=0.002) and longer duration of untreated psychosis (OR: 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00-1.02, p=0.034). Trajectories displaying continuous positive and negative symptoms were linked to lower neurocognition, as measured by the Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia (BACS) (z-score: -0.78, CI: -1.39 to -0.17, for continuous positive symptoms; z-score: -0.33, CI: -0.53 to -0.13, for continuous negative symptoms). The same trajectories were also linked to higher use of antipsychotic medication at 20-year follow-up (continuous positive symptoms: 78%; continuous negative symptoms: 67%). These findings suggest that the majority of patients with first-episode schizophrenia spectrum disorder have a trajectory with early stable remission of positive symptoms. Long duration of untreated psychosis and comorbid substance abuse are modifiable predictors of poor trajectories for positive symptoms in these patients. In about half of patients, negative symptoms do not improve over time. These symptoms, in addition to being associated with poor social and neurocognitive functioning, may prevent patients from seeking help.

Joint associations of physical activity and sleep duration with cognitive ageing: longitudinal analysis of an English cohort study

Physical activity and sleep duration are key factors associated with cognitive function and dementia risk. How physical activity and sleep interact to influence cognitive ageing is not well explored. We aimed to examine the associations of combinations of physical activity and sleep duration with 10-year cognitive trajectories. In this longitudinal study, we analysed data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing collected between Jan 1, 2008, and July 31, 2019, with follow-up interviews every 2 years. Participants were cognitively healthy adults aged at least 50 years at baseline. Participants were asked about physical activity and nightly sleep duration at baseline. At each interview, episodic memory was assessed using immediate and delayed recall tasks and verbal fluency using an animal naming task; scores were standardised and averaged to produce a composite cognitive score. We used linear mixed models to examine independent and joint associations of physical activity (lower physical activity or higher physical activity, based on a score taking into account frequency and intensity of physical activity) and sleep duration (short [<6 h], optimal [6-8 h], or long [>8 h]) with cognitive performance at baseline, after 10 years of follow-up, and the rate of cognitive decline. We included 8958 respondents aged 50-95 years at baseline (median follow-up 10 years [IQR 2-10]). Lower physical activity and suboptimal sleep were independently associated with worse cognitive performance; short sleep was also associated with faster cognitive decline. At baseline, participants with higher physical activity and optimal sleep had higher cognitive scores than all combinations of lower physical activity and sleep categories (eg, difference between those with higher physical activity and optimal sleep vs those with lower physical activity and short sleep at baseline age 50 years was 0·14 SDs [95% CI 0·05-0·24]). We found no difference in baseline cognitive performance between sleep categories within the higher physical activity category. Those with higher physical activity and short sleep had faster rates of cognitive decline than those with higher physical activity and optimal sleep, such that their scores at 10 years were commensurate with those who reported low physical activity, regardless of sleep duration (eg, difference in cognitive performance after 10 years of follow-up between those with higher physical and optimal sleep and those with lower physical activity and short sleep was 0·20 SDs [0·08-0·33]; difference between those with higher physical activity and optimal sleep and those with lower physical activity and short sleep was 0·22 SDs [0·11-0·34]). The baseline cognitive benefit associated with more frequent, higher intensity physical activity was insufficient to ameliorate the more rapid cognitive decline associated with short sleep. Physical activity interventions should also consider sleep habits to maximise benefis of physical activity for long-term cognitive health. UK Economic and Social Research Council.

Clinical impacts of frailty on 123,172 people with diabetes mellitus considering the age of onset and drugs of choice: a nationwide population-based 10-year trajectory analysis.

Frailty substantially increased the risk of adverse clinical outcomes, which was also critical in diabetes management. This study aimed to investigate the interrelationships between the age of onset, frailty, anti-diabetic medications and clinical outcomes in people with diabetes mellitus (DM). A total of 123,172 people aged 40years and older who were newly diagnosed with DM were identified and categorised into four frailty subgroups (robust, mild, moderate and severe) based on the multimorbidity frailty index (mFI). Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine associations between frailty and clinical outcomes at different ages of DM onsets (40-64, 65-74, 75-84 and 85+ years). Outcomes of interest included generic outcomes (mortality and unplanned hospitalisation) and DM-related outcomes (cardiovascular disease-related mortality, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), diabetes-related hospitalisation and hypoglycaemia). The proportion of frailty increased with age at diagnosis amongst people with incident DM and the mFI scores increased significantly during the 10-year follow-up. Amongst people with diabetes, those with mild, moderate and severe frailty were associated with greater risks of all-cause mortality (mild: adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.69 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.60-1.80], P< 0.01; moderate: aHR 2.46 [2.29-2.65], P< 0.01; severe frailty: aHR 3.40 [3.16-3.65], P< 0.01) compared with the robust group. Similar results were found in unplanned hospitalisations, cardiovascular disease-related mortality, MACEs and hypoglycaemia. Our study quantified the prevalence of frailty, captured its dynamic changes and examined its impacts on various clinical outcomes amongst people with diabetes at different ages at onset. Frailty assessment and management should be implemented into routine diabetes care.

Health trajectories of individuals who quit active religious attendance: analysis of four prospective cohort studies in the United States

PurposeTo examine whether trajectories of health (depressive symptoms, psychological wellbeing, self-rated health, and body mass index) and health behaviors (smoking, heavy alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, and cannabis use) changed for individuals who first reported at least monthly religious attendance and then in subsequent study waves reported no active religious attendance.MethodsData were from four cohort studies from the United States collected between 1996 and 2018: National Longitudinal Survey of 1997 (NLSY1997); National Longitudinal Survey of Young Adults (NLSY-YA); Transition to Adulthood Supplement of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID-TA); and Health and Retirement Study (HRS) with a total n = 6592 individuals and 37,743 person-observations.ResultsNone of the 10-year trajectories of health or health behaviors changed for the worse after the change from active to inactive religious attendance. Instead, the adverse trends were observed already during the time of active religious attendance.ConclusionThese results suggest that religious disengagement is a correlate—not a cause—of a life course characterized by poorer health and health behaviors. The religious decline caused by people leaving their religion is unlikely to influence population health.

Characteristics and Correlates of Ten-Year Trajectories of Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms in Older U.S. Military Veterans

ObjectivesTo examine the nature and correlates of 10-year trajectories of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms in older U.S. military Veterans. Design and SettingA nationally representative web-based survey of older U.S. Veterans who participated in the National Health and Resilience in Veterans Study over 5 waves between 2011 and 2021. ParticipantsA total of 1,843 U.S. Veterans aged 50 and older (mean age = 67). MeasurementsPTSD symptoms were assessed using the PTSD Checklist. Self-report measures at baseline assessed sociodemographic characteristics; trauma exposures; psychiatric and substance use disorders; mental, cognitive, and physical functioning; and psychosocial factors including expectations of aging. Latent growth mixture modeling identified the nature and correlates of 10-year PTSD symptom trajectories. ResultsMost of the sample had no/low PTSD symptoms (88.7%), while 6.0% had consistently subthreshold symptoms, 2.7% consistently high symptoms, and 2.6% increasing symptoms. Relative to the no/low symptom group, the subthreshold and high symptom groups reported more medical conditions and cognitive difficulties, with younger age and more lifetime traumatic events additionally linked to the high symptom trajectory. Relative to the no/low symptom group, Veterans with increasing symptoms were more likely to report functional disability and lifetime nicotine use disorder, cognitive difficulties, negative expectations regarding physical and emotional aging, and traumatic events over the study period. ConclusionsDespite high rates of trauma exposure, most older Veterans do not evidence symptomatic PTSD trajectories; however, about 11% do. Results underscore the importance of assessing PTSD symptoms in this population and considering longitudinal trajectories as well as associated risk and protective factors.

Cost-Effectiveness and Long-Term Savings of the Bright Bodies Intervention for Childhood Obesity

ObjectivesTo estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness of Bright Bodies, a high-intensity, family-based intervention that has been demonstrated to improve body mass index (BMI) among children with obesity in a randomized controlled trial. MethodsWe developed a microsimulation model to project 10-year BMI trajectories of 8 to 16-year-old children with obesity, using data from the National Longitudinal Surveys and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention growth charts, and we validated the model using data from the Bright Bodies trial and a follow-up study. We used the trial data to estimate the average reduction in BMI per person-year over 10 years and the incremental costs of Bright Bodies, compared with the traditional clinical weight management (control), from a health system’s perspective in 2020 US dollars. Using results from studies of Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data, we projected the long-term obesity-related medical expenditure. ResultsIn the primary analysis, assuming depreciating effects postintervention, Bright Bodies is expected to reduce a participant's BMI by 1.67 kg/m2 (95% uncertainty interval 1.43-1.94) per year over 10 years as compared with control. The incremental intervention cost of Bright Bodies was $360 ($292-$421) per person compared with the clinical control. Nevertheless, savings in obesity-related healthcare expenditure offset these costs and the expected cost-savings of Bright Bodies is $1126 ($689-$1693) per person over 10-years. The projected time to achieve cost-savings compared with clinical control was 3.58 (2.63-5.17) years. ConclusionsAlthough resource-intensive, our findings suggest that Bright Bodies is cost-saving compared to the clinical control by averting future obesity-related healthcare costs among children with obesity.

Trajectories of alcohol consumption in U.S. military veterans: Results from a 10-year population-based longitudinal study

BackgroundAlcohol use disorder is a public health problem, especially among US veterans. This study examined the nature and predictors of 10-year trajectories of alcohol consumption in US veterans. MethodsData were analyzed from the 2011–2021 National Health and Resilience in Veterans Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal study of 2309 US veterans. ResultsLatent growth mixture modeling analyses revealed four trajectories of alcohol consumption (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test–Consumption [AUDIT-C]) over a 10-year period: excessive (4.1%; mean [standard deviation] AUDIT-C baseline=8.6 [2.0], slope= −0.33 [0.07]); at-risk (22.1%; baseline=4.1 [1.6], slope=0.02 [0.07]); rare (71.7%; baseline=1.2 [1.3], slope= −0.01 [0.03]); and recovering alcohol consumption (2.1%; baseline=8.4 [1.9], slope= −0.70 [0.14]). The strongest predictors of excessive vs. rare alcohol consumption group were younger age (relative variance explained [RVE]=27.8%), and lower agreeableness (RVE=27.0%); at-risk vs. rare alcohol consumption group were fewer medical comorbidities (RVE=82.3%); recovering vs. rare alcohol consumption group were greater dysphoric arousal symptoms (RVE=46.1%) and current mental health treatment (RVE=26.5%); excessive vs. at-risk alcohol consumption group were younger age (RVE=25.9%), greater dysphoric arousal symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (RVE=22.0%), and lower conscientiousness (RVE=19.1%); and excessive vs. recovering alcohol consumption group were current mental health treatment (RVE=61.1%) and secure attachment style (RVE=12.4%). ConclusionsOver the past decade, more than 1 in 4 US veterans consumed alcohol at the at-risk-to-excessive level. Veterans who are younger, score lower on agreeableness and conscientiousness, endorse greater dysphoric arousal symptoms, and currently not engaged in mental health treatment may require close monitoring and prevention efforts to mitigate the risk of a chronic course of at-risk-to-excessive alcohol consumption.

Abstract PD6-02: PD6-02 Health-Related Quality of Life Trajectories and Predictors among Older Breast Cancer Survivors: A SEER-MHOS analysis

Abstract Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is an important issue for breast cancer patients and clinicians in the treatment decision process. In addition, older women are more vulnerable due to pre-existing comorbidities and socioeconomic status. This study explored 10-year trajectories of HRQoL in older breast cancer survivors and their predictors using patient-reported outcomes data queried from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results - Medicare Health Outcomes Survey (SEER-MHOS) data resources among Medicare beneficiaries. Older women diagnosed with breast cancer in 1998-2012 and who participated in the surveys before and at least once after diagnosis were included in the analysis. HRQOL was measured using SF-36/VR-12 questionnaire and summarized as Physical Component Summary (PCS) Score and Mental Component Summary (MCS) Score. Latent Class Growth Mixture Modeling was conducted to identify distinct groups of women with a similar trajectory of HRQOL. A total of 1089 women with breast cancer completed surveys an average of 2.6 times (range 2 - 19). The results showed that there were three latent classes of PCS trajectory: high-declining (46% of the sample), mid-declining (37%), and low-improving (17%). Two latent classes of MCS trajectory were identified: high-stable (76%) and low-declining (24%). The univariate analysis showed that age at diagnosis, body mass index, level of education, geographic region, tumor grade, tumor size, and the number of comorbidities were related to PCS and MCS scores. Multivariable multinomial logistic regression analysis identified the number of comorbidities as the most significant predictor for PCS score and level of education as the most significant predictor for MCS score. Future research needs to identify the most common comorbidities that influence HRQOL deterioration in older breast cancer survivors to develop interventions that better the physical HRQOL in patients. Also, interventions that target less educated, underserved patients to improve mental HRQOL. Citation Format: Eunkyung Lee, Sushantti Rupesh, Katia Ferdowsi, Robert Hines, Victoria Loerzel. PD6-02 Health-Related Quality of Life Trajectories and Predictors among Older Breast Cancer Survivors: A SEER-MHOS analysis [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2022 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2022 Dec 6-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(5 Suppl):Abstract nr PD6-02.

P789 Inflammatory Bowel Disease subgroups identified by longitudinal faecal calprotectin profiles: A 10-year retrospective analysis of the Lothian IBD Registry

Abstract Background Faecal calprotectin (FCAL) is routinely used to monitor mucosal inflammation, and high FCAL values are associated with poor outcomes in IBD. Having previously found clusters characterised by distinct FCAL profiles in a Crohn’s disease (CD) cohort of 356 subjects, we aimed to extend this approach to all IBD patients treated by the Edinburgh IBD Unit. Methods Subjects were required to have a diagnosis of IBD, three FCAL measurements within ten years of diagnosis between January 2005 and September 2019, and be treated by the Edinburgh IBD Unit. All FCAL was measured on the same ELISA essay as part of routine clinical care. Latent class mixed models, an extension of linear mixed effects models with cluster specific fixed effects, were used to model and cluster FCAL trajectories. Fixed and random effects were modelled using natural cubic splines, which allows flexible models with relatively low computational cost when compared to high degree polynomials. Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion and alluvial plots were used to decide on the appropriate number of clusters. CD subjects were modelled independently of UC and IBDU subjects, with similar clusters across disease subtypes given the same numbering for ease of comparison. Hereafter, we will describe the UC and IBDU patients collectively. Results 1,214 CD and 1,194 UC/IBDU subjects met the inclusion criteria. Across follow-up, 10,503 (median 7 per subject) FCAL measurements were available for patients with CD and 7,495 (median 5 per subject) for those with UC/IBDU. Figure 1. Log-transformed ten-year faecal calprotectin profiles for Crohn’s disease subjects. Red curves demonstrate overall profile for each cluster. The blue dotted lines indicate an FCAL of log (250 μg/g), the commonly accepted threshold for biochemical remission. For CD, six clusters were found to be appropriate, whereas five clusters were found to be the most appropriate for UC/ IBDU. The overall cluster prmofiles were remarkably similar between CD and UC/IBDU. Both CD cluster 2 and UC cluster 2, the largest clusters, were characterised by consistently high FCAL across follow-up: remaining above the 250 μg/g threshold commonly used for biochemical remission (blue dotted lines in the figures). Figure 2. Log-transformed ten-year faecal calprotectin profiles for ulcerative colitis subjects Conclusion After grouping CD and UC/IBDU subjects in a large cohort by their 10-year FCAL trajectories, we found remarkably similar trajectories across the two groups. In both cases, we found a large cluster of subjects with consistently elevated FCAL, which warrants further investigation.

U.S. vs. Foreign Nativity and 10-Year Trajectories of Mental Health after Traumatic Brain Injury: A Model Systems Study.

Previous research has found racial and ethnic disparities in life satisfaction, depression, and anxiety after traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, limited studies have examined differences in these variables between U.S.- and foreign-born individuals with TBI. The purpose of this study was to examine whether differences exist in mental health outcomes between U.S.- and foreign-born individuals with TBI at 1, 2, 5, and 10 years after injury, as well as examine whether demographic and injury-related characteristics account for these differences. Participants were 8289 individuals with TBI who identified as U.S.-born and 944 who identified as born outside the U.S. in the TBI Model Systems study. Participants completed measures of mental health outcomes at 1, 2, 5, and 10 years after injury. Foreign-born individuals with TBI had comparable levels of depression and anxiety trajectories to U.S.-born individuals, yet higher life satisfaction trajectories, even after controlling for demographic and injury-related variables. Rehabilitation professionals should consider in their clinical work the mechanisms that likely influence mental health outcomes among foreign-born individuals, including family-based values that increase resilience, as well as the possible under-reporting of mental health symptoms along the lines of cultural norms.

10-Year trajectories of depressive symptoms and subsequent brain health in middle-aged adults

Depressive symptoms differ in severity and stability over time. Trajectories depicting these changes, particularly those with high late-life depressive symptoms, have been associated with poor brain health at old age. To better understand these associations across the lifespan, we examined depressive symptoms trajectories in relation to brain health in middle age. We included 1676 participants from the ORACLE Study, all were expecting a child at baseline (mean age 32.8, 66.6% women). Depressive symptoms were assessed at baseline, 3 years and 10 years after baseline. Brain health (global brain volume, subcortical structures volume, white matter lesions, cerebral microbleeds, cortical thickness, cortical surface area) was assessed 15 years after baseline. Using k-means clustering, four depressive symptoms trajectories were identified: low, low increasing, decreasing, and high increasing symptoms. The high increasing trajectory was associated with smaller brain volume compared to low symptoms, not surviving multiple testing correction. The low increasing trajectory was associated with more cortical thickness in a small region encompassing the right lateral occipital cortex compared to low symptoms. These findings show that longitudinal depressive symptoms trajectories are only minimally associated with brain health in middle age, suggesting that associations may only emerge later in life.

Cardiovascular health trajectories and subsequent cardiovascular disease and mortality: The multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA)

ObjectiveLongitudinal trajectories of cardiovascular health (CVH) may reflect vascular risk burden due to prolonged cumulative exposure to non-ideal CVH levels. Identifying individuals who have a higher risk CVH trajectory may facilitate treatment, screening, and prevention. We aimed to characterize 10-year trajectories of CVH and examine the associations between CVH trajectories and subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality. MethodsWe analyzed 3674 MESA participants who completed four exams and remained CVD-free from 2000 to 2011. A 12-point CVH score was calculated based on physical activity, smoking status, body mass index, cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose. Ideal CVH was defined as a score ≥ 9. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify trajectories of ideal CVH. Cox models were used to examine the association of CVH trajectories with incident CVD and death from 2011 to 2018, adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, income, education, and marital status. ResultsThree trajectories were identified based on the probability of achieving ideal CVH: high (n = 1251), medium (n = 760), and persistently low (n = 1663). Almost half (45.3%) of the participants had a persistently low trajectory. During a median of 7.7 years follow-up, 392 incident CVD events and 459 deaths occurred. Compared with the high CVH group, participants in the persistently low CVH trajectory group had elevated risks for CVD (adjusted hazard ratios 1.49, 95% confidence interval 1.15–1.93) and mortality (1.34, 1.06–1.70), and participants in the medium group had moderate risks for CVD (1.17, 0.86–1.59) and mortality (1.15, 0.87–1.53) (p-value for trend 0.002 for CVD, 0.014 for mortality). ConclusionPersistently nonideal CVH is a common trajectory. Targeted prevention programs might benefit individuals with persistently nonideal CVH given their elevated risk of subsequent CVD and mortality.

The 10-year multimorbidity trajectory and mortality risk in older people with long-term care needs

BackgroundThis study aimed to identify trajectories of multimorbidity in older adults prior to receiving long-term care benefits and to demonstrate their value in predicting mortality. MethodsThis study included 1,004,924 Korean beneficiaries who completed the National Long-Term Care Insurance (NLTCI) eligibility assessment between 2010 and 2016. Multimorbidity was defined as the coexistence of 2 or more out of 23 chronic diseases related to disability in the 10 years before transitioning to long-term care. Mortality was defined as all-cause deaths after the date of the NLTCI needs assessment. Latent class growth modeling was performed to identify groups that exhibited similar trajectory patterns over time. Sex, age, and long-term care grade were used as covariates. Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze the mortality rates by trajectories. ResultsThree patterns emerged in the multimorbidity trajectory in the 10 years prior to entering the long-term care system: consistently low morbidity (“consistently low”), an abrupt increase in morbidity in less than one year (“catastrophic”), and an increment in morbidity over a longer period (“progressive”). In multiple Cox regression adjusting for covariates, the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of 1-year mortality for the catastrophic and progressive groups were 1.38 (1.36−1.39) and 1.43 (1.41−1.45), respectively, compared to the consistently low group. ConclusionsThis study identified distinct trajectories of multimorbidity in older people accessing the long-term care system and demonstrated their prognostic value for the survival of those with long-term care needs. Treatment and management strategies targeting individuals with a high-risk trajectory are warranted.

Abstract 5934: Weight loss and subsequent cancer diagnosis: A prospective cohort study

Abstract Background: Weight loss is a common symptom in patients with cancer. However, little is known about how much weight loss and over what time period weight loss precedes cancer diagnosis. Herein, we evaluate the association between weight loss and subsequent 2-year cancer diagnosis using repeatedly measured weight data in two large prospective cohorts. Methods: The analysis included 111,891 US women from the Nurses’ Health Study and 45,498 US men from the Health Professional Follow-up Study, who were enrolled in 1978 and 1988, respectively, and followed through 2012, and who were cancer-free and ≥40 years old at study entry. Current weight and lifestyle information were assessed every 2 years by questionnaire, and weight change in the previous 2 years was calculated by comparing two consecutive questionnaires. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for subsequent risk of cancer diagnosis according to weight change percentage. We also examined 20-year trajectories of body mass index (BMI) before cancer diagnosis. Results: During 4.1 million person-years of follow-up, we documented 30,441 incident cancers. Participants with recent weight loss were at increased risk for cancer diagnosis in the subsequent 2 years (Ptrend &amp;lt;0.0001). Compared with participants without weight loss, those who had a weight loss of 5-10% or &amp;gt;10% had a multivariable-adjusted HR for total cancer of 1.09 (95% CI, 1.04-1.13) and 1.17 (95% CI, 1.10-1.24), respectively. For individual cancer types, increased weight loss was associated with a subsequent cancer diagnosis of esophagus, liver, pancreas, leukemia, stomach, myeloma, lung, colorectal, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (all Ptrend &amp;lt;0.005). Comparing participants with weight loss of &amp;gt;10% to those without weight loss, multivariable-adjusted HRs were 4.22 (95% CI, 2.50-7.13) for esophageal cancer, 3.30 (95% CI, 1.65-6.61) for liver cancer, 2.46 (95% CI, 1.84-3.30) for pancreatic cancer, 2.40 (95% CI, 1.59-3.61) for leukemia, 2.26 (95% CI, 1.32-3.87) for stomach cancer, 1.80 (95% CI, 1.14-2.83) for myeloma, 1.45 (95% CI, 1.22-1.73) for lung cancer, 1.38 (95% CI, 1.14-1.66) for colorectal cancer, and 1.35 (95% CI, 1.06-1.72) for non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The 20-year trajectory of BMI indicated that most weight loss occurred in the 2 years before cancer diagnosis, with the magnitude of weight loss increasing closer to the time of subsequent cancer diagnosis. Conclusion: Recent weight loss of &amp;gt;10% predicts elevated risk of cancer diagnosis in the forthcoming 2 years, particularly for cancers of the upper gastrointestinal tract, hematological system, colorectum, and lung. Citation Format: Qiao-Li Wang, Ana Babic, Michael H. Rosenthal, Alice A. Lee, Yin Zhang, Xuehong Zhang, Mingyang Song, Leandro F. Rezende, Dong Hoon Lee, Leah Biller, Kimmie Ng, Andrew T. Chan, Meir J. Stampfer, Edward L. Giovannucci, Peter Kraft, Chen Yuan, Brian M. Wolpin. Weight loss and subsequent cancer diagnosis: A prospective cohort study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2022; 2022 Apr 8-13. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(12_Suppl):Abstract nr 5934.