10-year Time Horizon Research Articles

The importance of an informed choice of CO2-equivalence metrics for contrail avoidance

Abstract. One of the proposed ways to reduce the climate impact of civil aviation is rerouting aircraft to minimise the formation of warming contrails. As this strategy may increase fuel consumption, it would only be beneficial if the climate impact reduction from the avoided contrails exceeds the negative impact of any additional carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by the rerouted flight. In this study, we calculate the surface temperature response of almost half a million flights that crossed the North Atlantic sector in 2019 and compare it to the temperature response of hypothetical rerouted flights. The climate impacts of contrails and CO2 are assessed through the perspective of CO2-equivalence metrics, represented here as nine combinations of different definitions and time horizons. We estimate that the total emitted CO2 and the persistent contrails formed will have warmed the climate by 17.2 µK in 2039, 13.7 µK in 2069, and 14.1 µK in 2119. Under an idealised scenario where 1 % additional carbon dioxide is enough to reroute all contrail-forming flights and avoid contrail formation completely, total warming would decrease by 4.9 (−28 %), 2.6 (−19 %), and 1.9 (−13 %) µK in 2039, 2069, and 2119, respectively. In most rerouting cases, the results based on the nine different CO2-equivalence metrics agree that rerouting leads to a climate benefit, assuming that contrails are avoided as predicted. But the size of that benefit is very dependent on the choice of CO2-equivalence metrics, contrail efficacy and CO2 penalty. Sources of uncertainty not considered here could also heavily influence the perceived benefit. In about 10 % of rerouting cases, the climate damage resulting from contrail avoidance indicated by CO2-equivalence metrics integrated over a 100-year time horizon is not predicted by metrics integrated over a 20-year time horizon. This study highlights, using North Atlantic flights as a case study, the implications of the choice of CO2-equivalence metrics for contrail avoidance, but the choice of metric implies a focus on a specific climate objective, which is ultimately a political decision.

Modeling the Clinical and Economic Burden of Therapeutic Inertia in People with Type 2 Diabetes in Saudi Arabia.

Therapeutic inertia in type 2 diabetes, defined as a failure to intensify treatment despite poor glycemic control, can arise due to a variety of factors, despite evidence linking improved glycemic control with reductions in diabetes-related complications. The present study aimed to evaluate the health and economic burden of therapeutic inertia in people with type 2 diabetes in Saudi Arabia. The IQVIA Core Diabetes Model (v.9.0) was used to evaluate outcomes. Baseline cohort characteristics were sourced from Saudi-specific data, with baseline glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) tested at 8.0%, 9.0%, and 10.0%. Modeled subjects were brought to an HbA1c target of 7.0% immediately or after delays of 1-5years across time horizons of 3-50years. Outcomes were discounted annually at 3.0%. Costs were accounted from a societal perspective and expressed in 2023 Saudi Arabian Riyals (SAR). Immediate glycemic control was associated with improved or equal life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy and cost savings in all scenarios compared with delays in achieving target HbA1c. Combined cost savings ranged from SAR411 (EUR 102) per person with a baseline HbA1c of 8.0% versus a 1-year delay over a 3-year time horizon, to SAR 21,422 (EUR 5291) per person with a baseline HbA1c of 10.0% versus a 5-year delay over a 50-year time horizon. Discounted life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy were projected to improve by up to 0.4years and 0.5 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), respectively, with immediate glycemic control. Therapeutic inertia was associated with a substantial health and economic burden in Saudi Arabia. Interventions and initiatives that can help to reduce therapeutic inertia are likely to improve health outcomes and reduce healthcare expenditure.

Budget Impact Analysis of Dapagliflozin in Treating Patients With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction From the Perspective of Malaysian Public Healthcare System

PurposeThis is a budget impact analysis that compared the scenario of treating heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) using dapagliflozin plus standard of care (SoC) versus a scenario without dapagliflozin, from the perspective of Ministry of Health (MOH) Malaysia over a 5-year time horizon. MethodsA Microsoft Excel-based cost calculator was developed for such comparison. The estimated size of eligible population, uptake rates for dapagliflozin, as well as costs related to drugs, clinical events, and adverse events were based on published data, official tariffs, and databases, and expert opinion. Clinical data from the DAPA-HF trial were used to inform efficacy and safety inputs (i.e., hospitalization for heart failure (hHF), cardiovascular death, and adverse events). Results were reported as total annual and cumulative costs (in 2023 Malaysian Ringgits [RM], United States Dollars [USD], and European Union Euros, [EUR]; with exchange rates of 1 USD = RM 4.40 and 1 EUR = RM 4.90]), as well as the number of clinical events. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were also conducted. FindingsThe base-case analysis estimated that over a five-year period, the adoption of dapagliflozin for HFrEF treatment would result in a cumulative cost-saving of RM 2.6 million (USD 0.6 million/EUR 0.5 million), representing a 0.3% reduction in costs, driven primarily by reduced expenditure on hHF. Moreover, dapagliflozin treatment would lead to 731 fewer hHF and 366 fewer cardiovascular deaths. Sensitivity and scenario analyses revealed that the results were most sensitive to assumptions regarding loop diuretic requirements and the cost of dapagliflozin. Although cost savings or a net-zero balance were projected for the first four years, an anticipated 2.5% annual increase in dapagliflozin uptake in the longer term would lead to additional costs for the MOH, starting from the fifth year. ImplicationsIncorporating dapagliflozin into the SoC can improve health outcomes for HFrEF patients and may generate cost savings, potentially easing the economic strain of HFrEF management on Malaysia's public healthcare system in the short term. Nonetheless, a modest increase in budget should be anticipated as more patients gain access to the treatment over time.

Budget impact of dostarlimab plus carboplatin-paclitaxel for primary advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer from a third-party US payer perspective

Aim Dostarlimab plus carboplatin-paclitaxel (CP) significantly increased progression-free survival in patients with primary advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer (pA/rEC) vs CP alone in the RUBY trial (NCT03981796). This analysis estimated the per-member-per-month (PMPM) costs of introducing dostarlimab + CP as a treatment alternative from a third-party US payer perspective. Materials and methods A budget impact model was developed to estimate the costs of introducing dostarlimab + CP into commercial and Medicare health plans over a 3-year time horizon (2023–2025). Costs were sourced from relevant literature and US-specific databases and were calculated using epidemiology data, clinical inputs, treatment costs, and market share estimates. Clinical inputs were sourced from primary clinical trials for each respective treatment (i.e. dostarlimab + CP, CP, pembrolizumab, pembrolizumab plus lenvatinib, bevacizumab + CP, and pembrolizumab + CP). Current and future market shares assumed dostarlimab + CP reduced the market share of CP only. Analyses were performed in mismatch repair–deficient/microsatellite instability–high (dMMR/MSI-H) and overall populations using a US 2023 cost year. Results For a commercial plan, the model estimated (dMMR/MSI-H and overall populations) that 7 and 26 patients would be treated with dostarlimab + CP, respectively; average annual budget impacts per patient treated were $118,257 and $116,094; average budget impacts per patient treated per month (PPPM) were $9,855 and $9,675; average budget impacts PMPM were $0.02 and $0.06. For a Medicare plan, the model estimated that 28 and 93 patients, respectively, would be treated with dostarlimab + CP. Average annual budget impacts per patient treated and PPPM were the same as those for the commercial plan in both populations; average budget impacts PMPM were $0.07 and $0.22, respectively. Conclusions Introducing dostarlimab + CP as a first-line treatment for patients with pA/rEC results in minimal budget impact PMPM from a US third-party payer’s perspective. Together with the efficacy and safety results from RUBY, these results support the use of dostarlimab + CP as a treatment option.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of first-line sintilimab plus chemotherapy vs. chemotherapy alone for unresectable advanced or metastatic gastric or gastroesophageal junction cancer in China.

The Chinese Society of Clinical Oncology (CSCO) has recommended sintilimab plus chemotherapy (SINT + Chemo) as a standard first-line therapy for advanced gastric cancer or gastroesophageal junction cancer (GC/GEJC), based on the proven effectiveness and safety in the ORINT-16 trail. Its cost-effectiveness, however, remains to be evaluated. We established a partitioned survival approach (PartSA) model with a 10-year time horizon to determine whether SINT + Chemo (vs. chemotherapy) was more cost-effective as a first-line treatment for unresectable advanced or metastatic GC/GEJC. Survival data was generated from the ORIENT-16 trail. Cost calculation was limited to direct medical costs. Database of Hunan Public Resources Trading Service Platform was used as the source for obtaining drug prices. Other cost and utility values were gathered from established literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was the primary output. Additionally, we conducted sensitivity analysis, subgroup analysis, and scenario analysis. In the base-case analysis, group SINT + Chemo showed an increase in utility value by 0.32 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) at an extra cost of $7988.43, resulting in an ICER of $25239.29/QALY, below the Chinese cost-effective willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $38223.34. Upon further subgroup analysis according to patients' programmed death 1 ligand (PD-L1) combined positive score (CPS), the ICERs were $26341.01/QALY for patients highly expressing PD-L1 (CPS ≥5) and $17658.26/QALY for patients lowly expressing PD-L1 (CPS <5). Based on the sensitivity analysis, we found the PFS utility was the parameter that had the most significant impact on the model's outcomes. Moreover, in scenario analysis, the results remained consistent despite variations in the model's time frame. In China, SINT + Chemo is a more cost-effective option (vs. chemotherapy) as a first-line therapy for unresectable advanced or metastatic GC/GEJC, irrespective of PD-L1 expression levels.

Assessing the economic burden of vision loss and irreversible legal blindness in Spain (2021–2030): a societal perspective

ObjectiveTo estimate the economic impact for the society, generated as a consequence of the onset of loss of vision and irreversible legal blindness, for the main ophthalmologic diseases in Spain: glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy (DR), diabetic macular edema (DME), age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and high myopia (HM).MethodsA cost analysis model was developed to estimate the economic burden of glaucoma, DR, DME, AMD and HM over a 10-year time horizon (2021-2030), from a societal perspective in Spain.The epidemiological and economic parameters used in the model were obtained through a literature review. Prevalence, incidence, and progression stages were used to establish the epidemiological flows. Annual costs per patient from publications were included and classified into direct healthcare, direct non-healthcare and indirect costs. Costs from other countries were converted based on purchasing-power-parity (€EUR, PPP). Epidemiological parameters about population and cost results were validated by a panel of experts.All costs were adjusted to euros, 2021 (€, 2021), and using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the last 10 years, extrapolated to 2030 euros (€, 2030).ResultsIt was estimated that the total population of patients with the main diseases pathologies (glaucoma, DR, DME, AMD and HM) will increase to 7.99 million patients by 2030, representing an increase of 103%.The total cost by 2030 of all pathologies would amount to 99.8 billion euros. Direct non-healthcare costs account for the largest item (44%), followed by loss of productivity costs (38%), and direct healthcare costs (18%). The pathologies with the highest cumulative costs will be glaucoma (€33.6 billion) and DME (€19.8 billion).The greatest increment costs compared to 2021 will likely be generated by pathologies related to diabetes mellitus, such as DR (703%) and DME (317%).ConclusionsKnowing the costs associated with the pathologies that generate loss of vision and irreversible legal blindness is essential to understand the socioeconomic impact associated with these pathologies. Furthermore, the high cost of treating these diseases makes necessary to coordinate efforts between administrations, together with the support of patient associations, to meet their needs.

Cost-Effectiveness of Zanubrutinib Versus Bendamustine and Rituximab in Patients With Untreated Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

Zanubrutinib, a potent and specific irreversible Bruton's tyrosine kinase inhibitor, has proven to be effective in untreated chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), whether used alone or in combination with other therapies. Here, we compared the cost-effectiveness of zanubrutinib with bendamustine-rituximab (R-bendamustine) to determine its effectiveness as the first-line treatment for Chinese patients with untreated CLL. The evaluation utilized a partitioned survival model, constructed using TreeAge Pro 2011 software, incorporating data from SEQUOIA trial (NCT03336333). Transition probabilities were estimated from the reported survival probabilities in trials using parametric survival modeling. In this analysis, the quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, and lifetime cost were calculated from the Chinese health care system perspective. Sensitivity analyses, including 1-way analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis, were carried out to explore the uncertainty of the modeling results. Additionally, several scenario analyses, including different zanubrutinib price calculation and 20-year time horizon, were evaluated. The findings revealed that zanubrutinib had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $58,258.18 per additional QALYs gained compared with bendamustine-rituximab, with zanubrutinib being cost-effective only if its price was reduced by more than 30%. Research indicated that zanubrutinib achieved at least a 3.70% probability of cost-effectiveness at the threshold of $38,223.34/QALY. One-way sensitivity analysis revealed that the results were sensitive to the utility of progressed disease. The study highlighted the importance of considering the cost-effectiveness of zanubrutinib at its current price point for patients with untreated CLL in China, emphasizing the need for further assessment and potential pricing adjustments to enhance its economic viability in clinical practice.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of intraosseous basivertebral nerve ablation for the treatment of chronic low back pain

BACKGROUND CONTEXTRandomized trials have demonstrated the superiority of intraosseous basivertebral nerve ablation (BVNA) compared with sham and standard care in terms of improvements in pain, disability, and health-related quality of life in patients with vertebrogenic chronic low back pain (cLBP). PURPOSETo assess the cost effectiveness of BVNA in patients with vertebrogenic cLBP compared to standard care alone. STUDY DESIGN/SETTINGA model-based economic analysis. PATIENT SAMPLEBase case analysis used INTRACEPT, a randomized trial comparing BVNA with standard care in 140 patients with vertebrogenic cLBP, recruited from 23 sites across the United States, with a follow-up, up to 5 years. Scenario analyses compared data from the Surgical Multicenter Assessment of Radiofrequency Ablation for the Treatment of Vertebrogenic Back Pain (SMART) randomized trial against a sham control, and a single-arm study. OUTCOME MEASURESCosts and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). METHODSA cost-effectiveness model was built in Microsoft Excel to evaluate the costs and health outcomes of patients undergoing BVNA using the Intracept Procedure (Relievant Medsystems) to treat vertebrogenic cLBP from a US payor perspective. Alternative scenario sensitivity analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the model results. QALYs were discounted at 3.0% per year. RESULTSBase case analysis showed that BVNA relative to standard care alone was a cost-effective strategy for the management of patients with vertebrogenic cLBP, with an ICER of US$11,376 per QALY at a 5-year time horizon from introduction of the procedure. Modeling demonstrated a >99% probability that this was cost effective in the US, based on a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$100,000 to US$150,000. Various sensitivity and scenario analyses produced ICERs that all remained below this threshold. CONCLUSIONSBVNA with the Intracept Procedure offers patients with vertebrogenic cLBP, clinicians, and healthcare systems a cost-effective treatment compared to standard care alone.

Budget Impact Analysis of Olaparib for the Management of Patients with Homologous Recombination Repair (HRR)-Mutated Castration-Resistant Metastatic Prostate Cancer in Argentina.

The aim of this study was to perform a budget impact analysis (BIA) of introducing olaparib treatment for adult patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer in Argentina. A BIA model was used to estimate the cost difference between the current scenario (without olaparib) and the new scenario (incorporation of olaparib) for a third-party payer over a 5-year time horizon. The budgetary impact is estimated at the national health system level and by healthcare sectors in Argentina. Input parameters were obtained from the literature and validated by local expert opinion. Direct medical costs were obtained from both the Institute for Clinical Effectiveness and Health Policy (IECS) unit cost database and public data in Argentina. The microcosting estimation was used for key variables of the analysis. All costs are reported in US dollars (US$) as for October 2022 (1 US$ = 152.59 Argentine pesos). One-way sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses were conducted to evaluate the model robustness. The incorporation of olaparib, with a wholesale price per pack of US$3176, was associated with a weighted average of the budget impact per member per month (PMPM) of US$0.0191 for the national health system, being slightly higher than the estimated budgeted high impact threshold (US$0.0153). The PMPM budget impact for a 5-year average ranged between US$0.007 (public sector) and US$0.033 (private sector). The duration of treatment with olaparib was the most influential parameter in the budget impact results. The introduction of olaparib for the treatment of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer has a high budget impact for Argentina's health system. These findings are informative to support policy decisions aimed to expand the current treatment landscape for prostate cancer.

Is primary trabeculectomy cost-effective for patients with advanced primary open angle glaucoma? Results from the Treatment of Advanced Glaucoma Study economic model

Background/aimsAdvanced primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) is a lifelong condition. The aim of this study is to compare medical treatment against trabeculectomy for patients presenting with advanced POAG using an...

Budget impact of upadacitinib in patients with moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis in Argentina.

To analyze the budget impact of upadacitinib (UPA) 15 mg + methotrexate (MTX) for the treatment of moderate-to-severe rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in patients with an inadequate response to conventional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (cDMARD-IR) from the perspective of social security and the private health sector in Argentina. A budget impact analysis model was developed for a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 adults with health insurance coverage who were diagnosed with RA over a 5-year time horizon. The model parameters were obtained through literature review and validated by local experts. The costs are expressed in 2024 US dollars (USD). The introduction of UPA 15 mg + MTX for the treatment of moderate-to-severe RA and cDMARD-IR resulted in minimal increase, with a five-year total cumulative incremental cost of USD 1,855 for social security and USD 1,812 for the private health sector, representing 2% of the total budget. The acquisition cost of UPA was the most influential variable in the sensitivity analysis. The introduction of UPA 15 mg + MTX for the treatment of moderate-to-severe RA and cDMARD-IR can provide an effective treatment option with a minimal increase in costs for the healthcare system in Argentina, which is especially important in developing countries where health system budgets are more limited. Providing evidence-based estimates is a valuable tool for informing healthcare policies and can help policymakers make informed decisions about the allocation of healthcare resources to improve patient outcomes while also managing costs.

Developing a roadmap to reach and sustain 90% full immunization coverage through a cross-sectoral system strengthening strategy in Bihar, India

IntroductionReducing childhood mortality by curtailing the incidence of vaccine preventable diseases is contingent upon a robust and high-performing routine immunization system. According to the available data, the full immunization coverage (FIC) in the state of Bihar (India) has reached ~ 71%. While the government aspires to reach 90% FIC, a systematic evidence-based investigation of the reasons behind underimmunization as well as the identification of drivers and enablers to reach and sustain 90% FIC is critical. This study aimed to review the factors leading to underimmunized children in the state of Bihar and develop a forward-looking roadmap to reach and sustain 90% FIC by adopting a system strengthening approach.MethodWe conducted a desk review, followed by extensive stakeholder interviews and field visits to document and analyze the data and evidence relevant to routine immunization system performance in the state of Bihar. The stakeholders included the State Immunization Officer, District Immunization Officers, Block-level health officials, representatives from development agencies, healthcare workers, and caregivers. A total of eighty-six structured interviews were conducted, which included qualitative and quantitative parameters.ResultWhile positive results were observed from the assessment of Bihar’s immunization system, the implementation of targeted strategies for supply, service delivery and demand can provide a means to achieve FIC of 90%. The roadmap developed by the Government of Bihar enlists 40 + interventions across key thematic areas and has been prioritized over a 5-year time horizon as short, medium, and long-term milestones to achieve 90% FIC. These interventions include strengthening the data availability and quality, improving the governance and review mechanism, augmenting the capacity of health workers involve with immunization programme, and initiatives to increase demand for immunization services.ConclusionThe Bihar’s Immunization Roadmap development project work follows a methodical approach to assess and identify intervention to improve immunization coverage and can provide information and reference to other states and countries that are aiming to formulate similar action plans.

Cost-effectiveness of liquid biopsy for molecular profiling of newly diagnosed advanced non-squamous NSCLC in an Asian population.

178 Background: Liquid biopsy is complementary to tissue biopsy for lung cancer profiling, yet evidence of the cost-effectiveness is limited. This could retard implementation and reimbursement in clinical practice. The aim of this study is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of profiling strategies that include liquid biopsy and to identify the optimal profiling approach for newly diagnosed advanced non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in an Asian population using Singapore as an example. Methods: A decision tree and partitioned-survival model was developed from the Singapore healthcare system’s perspective to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of five molecular profiling strategies: either tissue or plasma next-generation sequencing (NGS) alone, a concurrent, and two sequential approaches. Model inputs were informed by local data or published literature. Sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses were undertaken to understand the robustness of the conclusions for decision making. The optimal strategy at different willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds was presented by cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier and the expected loss curve. Results: The sequential tissue-plasma NGS approach revealed an additional 0.0981 quality adjusted life years (QALYs) for an extra cost of S$3,074 over a 20-year time horizon compared to tissue NGS alone, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of S$31,318/QALY and an incremental net monetary benefit of S$1,343 per patient. The findings were sensitive to the costs of pembrolizumab and osimertinib and the probabilities of re-biopsy after tissue NGS. Sequential plasma-tissue NGS and plasma NGS alone were more costly and less effective than alternatives. Conclusions: The sequential tissue-plasma NGS approach generated the highest net monetary benefit and was the optimal testing strategy when WTP was S$45,000/QALY. It retained superiority but understandably with a higher ICER when expensive, non-first line treatments were included. Overall, its routine clinical practice should be proactively considered for newly diagnosed advanced non-squamous NSCLC in an Asian population.

Continuous glucose monitoring for self-management of diabetes in people living with type 2 diabetes mellitus on basal insulin therapy: A microsimulation model and cost-effectiveness analysis from a US perspective with relevance to Medicaid.

Reducing the risks of complications is a primary goal of diabetes management, with effective glycemic control a key factor. Glucose monitoring using continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) technology is an important part of diabetes self-management, helping patients reach and maintain targeted glucose and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels. Although clinical guidelines recommended CGM use, coverage by Medicaid is limited, likely because of cost concerns. To assess the cost-effectiveness of FreeStyle Libre CGM systems, compared with capillary-based self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG), in US individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus using basal insulin. A patient-level microsimulation model was used to compare CGM with SMBG for a population of 10,000 patients. A 10-year horizon was used, with an annual discount rate of 3.0% for costs and utilities. Model population characteristics were based on US national epidemiology data. Patient outcomes were based on published clinical trials and real-world studies. Annual costs, reflective of 2023 values, included CGM and SMBG acquisition costs and the costs of treating diabetic ketoacidosis, severe hypoglycemia, and diabetes complications. The effect of CGM was modeled as a persistent 1.1% reduction in HbA1c relative to SMBG based on US real-world evidence. Disutilities were based on published clinical trials and other relevant literature. The primary outcome was cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the validity of the model results when accounting for a plausible variation of inputs. In the base case analysis, CGM was dominant to SMBG, providing more QALYs (6.18 vs 5.97) at a lower cost ($70,137 vs $71,809) over the 10-year time horizon. A $10,456 increase in glucose monitoring costs was offset by a $12,127 reduction in treatment costs. Cost savings reflected avoidance of acute diabetic events (savings owing to reductions in severe hypoglycemia and diabetic ketoacidosis were $271 and $2,159, respectively) and a reduced cumulative incidence of diabetes complications, particularly renal failure (saving $5,292), myocardial infarction (saving $1,996), and congestive heart failure (saving $1,061). Scenario analyses were consistent with the base case results, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for CGM vs SMBG ranged from dominant to cost-effective. In probabilistic analysis, CGM was 100% likely to be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY. CGM is cost-effective compared with SMBG for US patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus receiving basal insulin therapy. This suggests that state Medicaid programs could benefit from broader coverage of CGM.

Randomized Controlled Trial Based US Commercial Payor Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Endoscopic Sleeve Gastroplasty Versus Lifestyle Modification Alone for Adults With Class I/II Obesity.

Endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty (ESG) is a minimally invasive day procedure that the MERIT randomized controlled trial (RCT) has demonstrated to be an effective and safe method of weight loss versus lifestyle modification alone. We sought to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of ESG from the perspective of a US commercial payer in a cohort of adults with class II and class I obesity with diabetes based on this RCT. We used a Markov modelling approach with BMI group health states and an absorbing death state. Baseline characteristics, utilities, BMI group transition probabilities, and adverse events (AEs) were informed by patient-level data from the MERIT RCT. Mortality was estimated by applying BMI-specific hazard ratios to US general population mortality rates. We used BMI-based health state utilities to reflect the impact of obesity comorbidities and applied disutilities due to ESG AEs. Costs included intervention costs, AE costs, and BMI-based annual direct healthcare costs to account for costs associated with obesity comorbidities. A willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was assumed. In our base-case analysis over a 5-year time horizon, ESG was cost-effective versus lifestyle modification alone with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $23,432/QALY. ESG remained cost-effective in all sensitivity analyses we conducted and was dominant in analyses with longer time horizons. ESG is a cost-effective treatment option for people living with obesity and should be considered in commercial health plans as an additional treatment option for clinically eligible patients.

Does an expanded allied health student training programme in regional New South Wales (Australia) result in a positive social return on investment? A protocol for a single-university education-based economic evaluation

Introduction20 years ago, health professional student placements in rural areas of Australia were identified as an important rural recruitment strategy and funding priority. Since then, there has been a growing...

37 Cost-effectiveness of treatment sequences with front-line nivolumab+ipilimumab therapy vs immuno-oncology+tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapies in intermediate/poor-risk metastatic renal cell carcinoma

Abstract Background Immuno-oncology (IO) and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) targeted tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) combinations have transformed the treatment of metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC). However, there is a lack of evidence regarding the most cost-effective sequencing of these systemic therapies. This study aimed to assess the expected health and economic outcomes of various treatment sequences for newly diagnosed patients with intermediate/poor-risk RCC from a US payer perspective. Methods We developed a model using a continuous time micro-simulation framework. First-line treatment options included: nivolumab+ipilimumab, nivolumab+cabozantinib, pembrolizumab+lenvatinib, and pembrolizumab+axitinib. Second-line treatment options included: cabozantinib and everolimus+lenvatinib. In both lines, the source data for the overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) distributions were obtained from the registrational randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of each therapy. The analysis included costs associated with drug acquisition in the US wholesale setting, drug administration and monitoring, management of treatment-related adverse events, disease management, and terminal care. Treatment duration for all first-line IO and TKI therapies was capped at 2 years. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated by multiplying time in each phase of the disease by phase-specific utility values estimated from the CheckMate 214 trial data using US tariffs. The analysis was run 1000 times for cohorts of 100 patients over a 20-year time horizon. All costs and health outcomes were discounted annually at a 3% rate. Results Average per-patient QALYs were estimated for each sequence of interest: nivolumab+ipilimumab followed by cabozantinib (3.59), nivolumab+ipilimumab followed by lenvatinib+everolimus (3.26), pembrolizumab+axitinib followed by cabozantinib (3.14), pembrolizumab+axitinib followed by lenvatinib+everolimus (2.97), pembrolizumab+lenvatinib followed by cabozantinib (3.51), and nivolumab+cabozantinib followed by lenvatinib+everolimus (2.99). Average per-patient costs were estimated for each sequence of interest: nivolumab+ipilimumab followed by cabozantinib ($468,856), nivolumab+ipilimumab followed by lenvatinib+everolimus ($491,259), pembrolizumab+axitinib followed by cabozantinib ($675,714), pembrolizumab+axitinib followed by lenvatinib+everolimus ($700,411), pembrolizumab+lenvatinib followed by cabozantinib ($837,888), nivolumab+cabozantinib followed by lenvatinib+everolimus ($873,377). First-line drug acquisition costs accounted for the majority of costs for all sequences. Conclusions Based upon our model using data from registrational RCTs, first-line nivolumab+ipilimumab followed by cabozantinib represents the dominant treatment strategy for intermediate/poor-risk mRCC patients in the US, offering estimated cost savings of up to 45% when compared to IO+TKI options. Additional studies are needed to elucidate whether these cost savings translate to the real-world setting.

Budget impact analysis of introducing fruquintinib for metastatic colorectal cancer previously treated with fluoropyrimidine-, oxaliplatin-, and irinotecan-based chemotherapy and biologics in the United States from the payer perspective

Aims Fruquintinib is a selective small molecule tyrosine kinase inhibitor of vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (VEGFR)-1, -2, and -3 recently approved in the United States (US) for the treatment of adult patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC) who have previously been treated with fluoropyrimidine-, oxaliplatin-, and irinotecan-based chemotherapy, an anti-VEGF biological therapy, and if RAS wild-type and medically appropriate, anti-epidermal growth factor receptor therapy. This study aimed to estimate the 5-year budget impact of fruquintinib from a US payer perspective (commercial and Medicare). Materials and methods A budget impact model was developed to compare two scenarios: a reference scenario in which patients received regorafenib, trifluridine/tipiracil, or trifluridine/tipiracil with bevacizumab and an alternative scenario in which patients received reference scenario treatments or fruquintinib. Market shares were evenly divided across available options. A 5-year time horizon and a hypothetical health plan of 1 million members was assumed. The model included epidemiological inputs to estimate the eligible population; clinical inputs for treatment duration, progression-free survival, overall survival, and adverse event (AE) frequency; and cost inputs for treatment, AEs, disease management, subsequent therapy, and terminal care costs. Budget impact was reported as total, per member per year (PMPY), and per member per month (PMPM). Results The model estimated an eligible population of 194 patients (39 per year) over 5 years. In the base case, the estimated 5-year budget impact of fruquintinib was $4,077,073 ($0.82 PMPY and 0.07 PMPM) for a commercial health plan. During the first year, the estimated budget impact was $627,570 ($0.63 PMPY and 0.05 PMPM). Results were robust across sensitivity analyses. PMPM costs from the Medicare perspective were greater than the base-case (commercial) ($0.17 vs. $0.07) due to higher incidence of CRC in that population. Conclusions Fruquintinib is associated with a low budget impact for payers based on proposed thresholds in the US.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of osimertinib plus chemotherapy for patients with EGFR-mutated advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

First-line osimertinib plus chemotherapy significantly prolonged progression-free survival of patients with EGFR-mutated advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) compared to osimertinib, according to the FLAURA2 trial. We established a Markov model to compare the cost-effectiveness of osimertinib plus chemotherapy with that of osimertinib alone. Clinical data were obtained from the FLAURA and FLAURA2 trials, and additional data were extracted from online resources and publications. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the robustness of the findings. We used A willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000 per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. The main outcomes were QALYs, overall costs, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), incremental net monetary benefit, and incremental net health benefit. Subgroup analyses were conducted according to patients' mutation type and central nervous system (CNS) metastatic status. In a 20-year time horizon, the ICER of osimertinib plus chemotherapy versus osimertinib alone was $223,727.1 per QALY gained. The sensitivity analyses identified the cost of osimertinib and the hazard ratio for overall survival as the top 2 influential factors and a 1.9% probability of osimertinib plus chemotherapy to be cost-effective. The subgroup analyses revealed ICERs of $132,614.1, $224,449.8, $201,464.1, and $130,159.7 per QALY gained for L858R mutations, exon 19 deletions, CNS metastases, and no CNS metastases subgroups, respectively. From the perspective of the United States health care system, osimertinib plus chemotherapy is not cost-effective compared to osimertinib alone for treatment-naïve patients with EGFR-mutated advanced NSCLC, but more favorable cost-effectiveness occurs in patients with L858R mutations and patients without baseline CNS metastases.

Cost-Utility of Real-Time Potassium Monitoring in United States Patients Receiving Hemodialysis

IntroductionPatients with kidney failure requiring hemodialysis are at high risk for hyperkalemia between treatments which is associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Early detection of hyperkalemic events may be useful to prevent adverse outcomes and their associated costs. We performed a cost-utility analysis comparing an intervention where a real-time potassium monitoring device is administered in hemodialysis patients in comparison to usual care. MethodsWe developed a cost-utility model with microsimulation from the perspective of the United States health care payer. Primary outcomes included the monthly cost-effectiveness threshold cost and break-even cost per patient attributable to the intervention and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing the intervention to usual care. A 25% reduction in hyperkalemic events was applied as a baseline device effectiveness estimate. Concurrent first and second order microsimulations were performed using 10%, 25%, and 50% effectiveness estimates as sensitivity analyses. Results are presented over a 10-year time horizon in 2022 United States Dollars (USD) and a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 USD per quality-adjusted-life year (QALY) was considered. ResultsOver ten-years, threshold and break-even analysis yielded maximum monthly costs of $201.10 USD and $144.15 USD per patient respectively. The intervention was associated with reduced mean costs ($6,381.21 USD) and increased mean QALYs (0.03) per patient, therefore was considered dominant. In sensitivity analysis, the intervention was dominant in 99% of simulations performed at all effectiveness rates. ConclusionsImplementing a real-time potassium monitoring device in hemodialysis patients has the potential for cost savings and improved outcomes from the perspective of the Unites States health care payer.