1-way Sensitivity Analyses Research Articles

Cost-Effectiveness of Multidisciplinary Management Program and Exercise Training Program in Heart Failure

Heart failure causes significant health and financial burdens for patients and society. Multidisciplinary management program (MMP) and exercise training program (ETP) have been reported as cost-effective in improving health outcomes, yet no study has compared the 2 programs. We constructed a Markov model to simulate life year (LY) gained and total costs in usual care (UC), MMP, and ETP. The probability of transitions between states and healthcare costs were extracted from previous literature. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over a 10-year horizon. Model robustness was assessed through 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The expected LY for patients treated with UC, MMP, and ETP was 7.6, 8.2, and 8.4 years, respectively. From a societal perspective, the expected cost of MMP was $20,695, slightly higher than the cost of UC ($20,092). The cost of ETP was much higher ($48,378) because of its high implementation expense and the wage loss it incurred. The ICER of MMP versus UC was $976 per LY gained, and the ICER of ETP versus MMP was $165,702 per LY gained. The results indicated that, under current cost-effectiveness threshold, MMP is cost-effective compared with UC, and ETP is not cost-effective compared with MMP. However, ETP is cost-effective compared with MMP from a healthcare payer's perspective.

Cost-effectiveness of 3-month paliperidone treatment for chronic schizophrenia in Spain

Background: A 3-month long treatment of paliperidone palmitate (PP3M) has been introduced as an option for treating schizophrenia. Its cost-effectiveness in Spain has not been established.Aims: To compare the costs and effects of PP3M compared with once-monthly paliperidone (PP1M) from the payer perspective in Spain.Methods: This study used the recently published trial by Savitz et al. as a core model over 1 year. Additional data were derived from the literature. Costs in 2016 Euros were obtained from official lists and utilities from Osborne et al. The authors conducted both cost-utility and cost-effectiveness analyses. For the former, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained was calculated. For the latter, the outcomes were relapses and hospitalizations avoided. To assure the robustness of the analyses, a series of 1-way and probability sensitivity analyses were conducted.Results: The expected cost was lower with PP3M (4,780€) compared with PP1M (5,244€). PP3M had the fewest relapses (0.080 vs 0.161), hospitalizations (0.034 v.s 0.065), and emergency room visits (0.045 v.s 0.096) and the most QALYs (0.677 v.s 0.625). In both cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses, PP3M dominated PP1M. Sensitivity analyses confirmed base case findings. For the primary analysis (cost-utility), PP3M dominated PP1M in 46.9% of 10,000 simulations and was cost-effective at a threshold of 30,000€/QALY gained.Conclusions: PP3M dominated PP1M in all analyses and was, therefore, cost-effective for treating chronic relapsing schizophrenia in Spain. For patients who require long-acting therapy, PP3M appears to be a good alternative anti-psychotic treatment.

Cost effectiveness of regorafenib as second-line therapy for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

Regorafenib, a multikinase inhibitor, has demonstrated prolonged survival by 2.8 months as a second-line agent in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who progress on sorafenib therapy. The objective of the current study was to examine the cost effectiveness of regorafenib for the treatment of HCC. The authors constructed a Markov simulation model of patients with unresectable HCC and Child-Pugh A cirrhosis who received treatment with regorafenib versus best supportive care. Model inputs for regorafenib effectiveness and rates of adverse events in patients with HCC were based on published clinical trial data and literature review. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated along with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of regorafenib therapy. One-way sensitivity analyses also were conducted simultaneously on all model parameters and on various Monte-Carlo simulation parameters, and the regorafenib cost threshold at which cost effectiveness would be achieved was determined. Regorafenib provided an increase of 0.18 QALYs at a cost of $47,112. The ICER for regorafenib, compared with best supportive care, was $224,362. In 1-way sensitivity analyses, there were no scenarios in which regorafenib was cost effective. In cost threshold analysis, regorafenib would have to be priced at or below $67 per pill to be cost effective at an ICER of $100,000. Regorafenib is not cost effective as a second-line agent in the treatment of HCC, with a marginal increase in QALYs at a high cost. Lowering the cost of regorafenib or improving the selection of patients who can achieve maximal survival benefit would improve its value as a second-line treatment option for patients with HCC. Cancer 2017;123:3725-3731. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of consolidation with brentuximab vedotin for high-risk Hodgkin lymphoma after autologous stem cell transplantation.

In a recent randomized, placebo-controlled trial, consolidation treatment with brentuximab vedotin (BV) decreased the risk of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) progression after autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT). However, the impact of BV consolidation on overall survival, quality of life, and health care costs remain unclear. A Markov decision-analytic model was constructed to measure the costs and clinical outcomes for BV consolidation therapy compared with active surveillance in a cohort of patients aged 33 years who were at risk for HL relapse after ASCT. Life-time costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for each post-ASCT strategy. After quality-of-life adjustments and standard discounting, upfront BV consolidation was associated with an improvement of 1.07 QALYs compared with active surveillance plus BV as salvage. However, the strategy of BV consolidation led to significantly higher health care costs ($378,832 vs $219,761), resulting in an ICER for BV consolidation compared with active surveillance of $148,664/QALY. If indication-specific pricing was implemented, then the model-estimated BV price reductions of 18% to 38% for the consolidative setting would translate into ICERs of $100,000 and $50,000 per QALY, respectively. These findings were consistent on 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. BV as consolidation therapy under current US pricing is unlikely to be cost effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per QALY. However, indication-specific price reductions for the consolidative setting could reduce ICERs to widely acceptable values. Cancer 2017. © 2017 American Cancer Society. Cancer 2017;123:3763-3771. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Pipeline embolization device versus coiling for the treatment of large and giant unruptured intracranial aneurysms: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVE Rupture of large or giant intracranial aneurysms leads to significant morbidity, mortality, and health care costs. Both coiling and the Pipeline embolization device (PED) have been shown to be safe and clinically effective for the treatment of unruptured large and giant intracranial aneurysms; however, the relative cost-to-outcome ratio is unknown. The authors present the first cost-effectiveness analysis to compare the economic impact of the PED compared with coiling or no treatment for the endovascular management of large or giant intracranial aneurysms. METHODS A Markov model was constructed to simulate a 60-year-old woman with a large or giant intracranial aneurysm considering a PED, endovascular coiling, or no treatment in terms of neurological outcome, angiographic outcome, retreatment rates, procedural and rehabilitation costs, and rupture rates. Transition probabilities were derived from prior literature reporting outcomes and costs of PED, coiling, and no treatment for the management of aneurysms. Cost-effectiveness was defined, with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) defined as difference in costs divided by the difference in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The ICERs < $50,000/QALY gained were considered cost-effective. To study parameter uncertainty, 1-way, 2-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS The base-case model demonstrated lifetime QALYs of 12.72 for patients in the PED cohort, 12.89 for the endovascular coiling cohort, and 9.7 for patients in the no-treatment cohort. Lifetime rehabilitation and treatment costs were $59,837.52 for PED; $79,025.42 for endovascular coiling; and $193,531.29 in the no-treatment cohort. Patients who did not undergo elective treatment were subject to increased rates of aneurysm rupture and high treatment and rehabilitation costs. One-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the model was most sensitive to assumptions about the costs and mortality risks for PED and coiling. Probabilistic sampling demonstrated that PED was the cost-effective strategy in 58.4% of iterations, coiling was the cost-effective strategy in 41.4% of iterations, and the no-treatment option was the cost-effective strategy in only 0.2% of iterations. CONCLUSIONS The authors' cost-effective model demonstrated that elective endovascular techniques such as PED and endovascular coiling are cost-effective strategies for improving health outcomes and lifetime quality of life measures in patients with large or giant unruptured intracranial aneurysm.

Supraorbital Versus Endoscopic Endonasal Approaches for Olfactory Groove Meningiomas: A Cost-Minimization Study.

To perform a cost-minimization study comparing the supraorbital and endoscopic endonasal (EEA) approach with or without craniotomy for the resection of olfactory groove meningiomas (OGMs). We built a decision tree using probabilities of gross total resection (GTR) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) leak rates with the supraorbital approach versus EEA with and without additional craniotomy. The cost (not charge or reimbursement) at each "stem" of this decision tree for both surgical options was obtained from our hospital's finance department. After a base case calculation, we applied plausible ranges to all parameters and carried out multiple 1-way sensitivity analyses. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed our results. The probabilities of GTR (0.8) and CSF leak (0.2) for the supraorbital craniotomy were obtained from our series of 5 patients who underwent a supraorbital approach for the resection of an OGM. The mean tumor volume was 54.6 cm3 (range, 17-94.2 cm3). Literature-reported rates of GTR (0.6) and CSF leak (0.3) with EEA were applied to our economic analysis. Supraorbital craniotomy was the preferred strategy, with an expected value of $29,423, compared with an EEA cost of $83,838. On multiple 1-way sensitivity analyses, supraorbital craniotomy remained the preferred strategy, with a minimum cost savings of $46,000 and a maximum savings of $64,000. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis found the lowest cost difference between the 2 surgical options to be $37,431. Compared with EEA, supraorbital craniotomy provides substantial cost savings in the treatment of OGMs. Given the potential differences in effectiveness between approaches, a cost-effectiveness analysis should be undertaken.

Analyzing cost-effectiveness of ulnar and median nerve transfers to regain forearm flexion.

OBJECTIVE Peripheral nerve transfers to regain elbow flexion via the ulnar nerve (Oberlin nerve transfer) and median nerves are surgical options that benefit patients. Prior studies have assessed the comparative effectiveness of ulnar and median nerve transfers for upper trunk brachial plexus injury, yet no study has examined the cost-effectiveness of this surgery to improve quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The authors present a cost-effectiveness model of the Oberlin nerve transfer and median nerve transfer to restore elbow flexion in the adult population with upper brachial plexus injury. METHODS Using a Markov model, the authors simulated ulnar and median nerve transfers and conservative measures in terms of neurological recovery and improvements in quality of life (QOL) for patients with upper brachial plexus injury. Transition probabilities were collected from previous studies that assessed the surgical efficacy of ulnar and median nerve transfers, complication rates associated with comparable surgical interventions, and the natural history of conservative measures. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), defined as cost in dollars per QALY, were calculated. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios less than $50,000/QALY were considered cost-effective. One-way and 2-way sensitivity analyses were used to assess parameter uncertainty. Probabilistic sampling was used to assess ranges of outcomes across 100,000 trials. RESULTS The authors' base-case model demonstrated that ulnar and median nerve transfers, with an estimated cost of $5066.19, improved effectiveness by 0.79 QALY over a lifetime compared with conservative management. Without modeling the indirect cost due to loss of income over lifetime associated with elbow function loss, surgical treatment had an ICER of $6453.41/QALY gained. Factoring in the loss of income as indirect cost, surgical treatment had an ICER of -$96,755.42/QALY gained, demonstrating an overall lifetime cost savings due to increased probability of returning to work. One-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the model was most sensitive to assumptions about cost of surgery, probability of good surgical outcome, and spontaneous recovery of neurological function with conservative treatment. Two-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated that surgical intervention was cost-effective with an ICER of $18,828.06/QALY even with the authors' most conservative parameters with surgical costs at $50,000 and probability of success of 50% when considering the potential income recovered through returning to work. Probabilistic sampling demonstrated that surgical intervention was cost-effective in 76% of cases at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS The authors' model demonstrates that ulnar and median nerve transfers for upper brachial plexus injury improves QALY in a cost-effective manner.

Effects of Radiation Exposure on the Cost-Effectiveness of CT Angiography and Perfusion Imaging in Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

CT angiography and perfusion imaging is an important prognostic tool in the management of patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. The purpose of this study was to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of advanced imaging in patients with SAH, incorporating the risks of radiation exposure from CT angiography and CT perfusion imaging. The risks of radiation-induced brain cancer and cataracts were incorporated into our established decision model comparing the cost-effectiveness of CT angiography and CT perfusion imaging and transcranial Doppler sonography in SAH. Cancer risk was calculated by using National Cancer Institute methodology. The remaining input probabilities were based on literature data and a cohort at our institution. Outcomes were expected quality-adjusted life years gained, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. One-way, 2-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. CT angiography and CT perfusion imaging were the dominant strategies, resulting in both better health outcomes and lower costs, even when incorporating brain cancer and cataract risks. Our results remained robust in 2-way sensitivity analyses varying the prolonged latency period up to 30 years, with either brain cancer risk up to 50 times higher than the upper 95% CI limit or the probability of cataracts from 0 to 1. Results were consistent for scenarios that considered either symptomatic or asymptomatic patients with SAH. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed our findings over a broad range of selected input parameters. While risks of radiation exposure represent an important consideration, CT angiography and CT perfusion imaging remained the preferred imaging compared with transcranial Doppler sonography in both asymptomatic and symptomatic patients with SAH, with improved health outcomes and lower health care costs, even when modeling a significantly higher risk and shorter latency period for both cataract and brain cancer than that currently known.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Second-Line Chemotherapy Agents for Advanced Gastric Cancer.

Gastric cancer is the fifth most common malignancy and second leading cause of cancer-related mortality. Chemotherapy options for patients who fail first-line treatment are limited. Thus the objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of second-line treatment options for patients with advanced or metastatic gastric cancer. Cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model to compare the cost-effectiveness of six possible second-line treatment options for patients with advanced gastric cancer who have failed previous chemotherapy: irinotecan, docetaxel, paclitaxel, ramucirumab, paclitaxel plus ramucirumab, and palliative care. The model was performed from a third-party payer's perspective to compare lifetime costs and health benefits associated with studied second-line therapies. Costs included only relevant direct medical costs. The model assumed chemotherapy cycle lengths of 30 days and a maximum number of 24 cycles. Systematic review of literature was performed to identify clinical data sources and utility and cost data. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated. The primary outcome measure for this analysis was the ICER between different therapies, where the incremental cost was divided by the number of QALYs saved. The ICER was compared with a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold that was set at $50,000/QALY gained, and an exploratory analysis using $160,000/QALY gained was also used. The model's robustness was tested by using 1-way sensitivity analyses and a 10,000 Monte Carlo simulation probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). Irinotecan had the lowest lifetime cost and was associated with a QALY gain of 0.35 year. Docetaxel, ramucirumab alone, and palliative care were dominated strategies. Paclitaxel and the combination of paclitaxel plus ramucirumab led to higher QALYs gained, at an incremental cost of $86,815 and $1,056,125 per QALY gained, respectively. Based on our prespecified WTP threshold, our base case analysis demonstrated that irinotecan alone is the most cost-effective regimen, and both paclitaxel alone and the combination of paclitaxel and ramucirumab were not cost-effective (ICER more than $50,000). Both 1-way sensitivity analyses and PSA demonstrated the model's robustness. PSA illustrated that paclitaxel plus ramucirumab was extremely unlikely to be cost-effective at a WTP threshold less than $400,000/QALY gained. Irinotecan alone appears to be the most cost-effective second-line regimen for patients with gastric cancer. Paclitaxel may be cost-effective if the WTP threshold was set at $160,000/QALY gained.

CSM 2017 Orthopaedic Section Platform Presentations (Abstracts OPL1–OPL64)

CSM 2017 Orthopaedic Section Platform Presentations (Abstracts OPL1–OPL64)

Cost Minimization Analysis of Different Strategies of Management of Clinically Significant Scorpion Envenomation Among Pediatric Patients.

Scorpion antivenom was recently approved for use in patients with clinically significant scorpion envenomation in the United States; no formal economic analysis on its impact on cost of management has been performed. Three different strategies of management of scorpion envenomation with systemic neurotoxic symptoms in children were compared for cost minimization from a societal perspective. In strategy I, patients were managed with supportive care only without antivenom. In strategy II, an aggressive strategy of full-dose antivenom (initial dose of 3 vials with the use of additional vials administered 1 vial at a time) was considered. In strategy III, a single-vial serial antivenom dosing strategy titrated to clinical response was considered. Clinical probabilities for the different strategies were obtained from retrospective review of medical records of patients with scorpion envenomation over a 10-year period at our institution. Baseline cost values were obtained from patient reimbursement data from our institution. In baseline analysis, strategy I of supportive care only with no antivenom was least costly at US $3466.50/patient. Strategy III of single-vial serial dosing was intermediate but less expensive than strategy II of full-dose antivenom, with an incremental cost of US $3171.08 per patient. In a 1-way sensitivity analysis, at a threshold antivenom cost of US $1577.87, strategy III of single-vial serial dosing became the least costly strategy. For children with scorpion envenomation, use of a management strategy based on serial dosing of antivenom titrated to clinical response is less costly than a strategy of initial use of full-dose antivenom.

Addition of docetaxel and/or zoledronic acid to standard of care for hormone-naive prostate cancer: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

The effectiveness of the addition of docetaxel and/or zoledronic acid to the standard of care (SOC) for hormone-naive prostate cancer has been evaluated in the STAMPEDE trial. The object of the present analysis was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of these treatment options in the treatment of advanced hormone-naive prostate cancer in China. A cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model was carried out from the Chinese societal perspective. The efficacy data were obtained from the STAMPEDE trial and health utilities were derived from previous studies. Transition probabilities were calculated based on the survival in each group. The primary endpoint in the analysis was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and model uncertainties were explored by 1-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. SOC alone generated an effectiveness of 2.65 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at a lifetime cost of $20,969.23. At a cost of $25,001.34, SOC plus zoledronic acid was associated with 2.69 QALYs, resulting in an ICER of $100,802.75/QALY compared with SOC alone. SOC plus docetaxel gained an effectiveness of 2.85 QALYs at a cost of $28,764.66, while the effectiveness and cost data in the SOC plus zoledronic acid/docetaxel group were 2.78 QALYs and $32,640.95. Based on the results of the analysis, SOC plus zoledronic acid, SOC plus docetaxel, and SOC plus zoledronic acid/docetaxel are unlikely to be cost-effective options in patients with advanced hormone-naive prostate cancer compared with SOC alone.

PDB14 - Gestational Diabetes Screening for Chinese Women: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

The prevalence of gestational diabetes (GDM) is growing in China, and it is associated with a boosted risk of complications for the mother and neonate, such as pre-eclampsia, intrauterine death, stillbirth, post-partum type 2 diabetes, and macrosomia. GDM is also related with birth trauma, hypoglycemia, hyperbilirubinemia, respiratory distress, long-term obesity and childhood diabetes. Early determination and treatment of GDM can significantly diminish the incidence of these complications. The diagnostic criteria for GDM, however, remain questionable whether it is cost-effective or not. The objective of this study is to investigate the cost effectiveness of new American Diabetes Association (ADA) guideline on GDM screening in China. A decision analytic model was built to compare new GDM criteria (ADA 2011) and old criteria in China. All probabilities, costs, and benefits were derived from the literature. Base case, sensitivity analyses, and a Monte Carlo simulation were performed. Screening with the 75g-OGTT was more expensive and effective. In a 1-way sensitivity analysis, the ADA 2011 diagnostic approach remained cost-effective even triple of patients were diagnosed and treated for gestational diabetes mellitus. ADA 2011 diagnostic approach, however, was no longer cost-effective when long-term maternal and neonatal outcomes were not considered. Screening at 24-28 weeks’ gestational age under the ADA 2011 guidelines with the 2h OGTT is expensive but cost effective in improving long-term maternal and neonatal outcomes.

Cost-effectiveness of Low-dose Submicron Diclofenac Compared With Generic Diclofenac

PurposeNSAIDs are commonly prescribed for the treatment of pain and inflammation. Despite the effectiveness of NSAIDs, concerns exist regarding their tolerability. Worldwide health authorities, including the European Medicines Agency, Health Canada, and the US Food and Drug Administration, have advised that NSAIDs be prescribed at the lowest effective dosage and for the shortest duration. Effective lowering of NSAID dosage without compromising pain relief has been demonstrated in randomized, controlled trials of the recently approved NSAID lower-dose submicron diclofenac. Building on previously published work from an independently published systematic review and meta-analysis, a linear dose–toxicity relationship between diclofenac dose and serious gastrointestinal (GI) events was recently demonstrated, indicating that reductions in adverse events (AEs) may be seen even with modest dose reductions in many patients. The objective of the present study was to estimate the potential reduction in risk for NSAID dose–related AEs, corresponding savings in health care costs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness of submicron diclofenac compared with generic diclofenac in the United States. MethodsOur decision-analytic cost-effectiveness model considered a subset of potential AEs that may be avoided by lowering NSAID dosage. To estimate the expected reductions in upper GI bleeding/perforation and major cardiovascular events with submicron diclofenac, our model used prediction equations estimated by meta-regressions using data from systematic literature reviews. Utilities, lifetime costs, and health outcomes associated with AEs were estimated using data from the literature. The face validity of the model structure and inputs was confirmed by clinical experts in the United States. Results were evaluated in 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. FindingsThe model predicted that submicron diclofenac versus generic diclofenac could reduce the occurrence of modeled GI events (by 18.0%), cardiovascular events (by 6.9%), and acute renal failure (by 18.8%), leading to a 9.8% reduction in costs of treating AEs. Submicron diclofenac was predicted to be cost-saving, with results relatively insensitive to parameter uncertainty. ImplicationsSubmicron diclofenac has the potential to provide clinical and economic value to patients using NSAIDs in the United States. Further investigation regarding the potential effects of submicron diclofenac on the risks for additional NSAID dose-related toxicities should be explored.

Economic Evaluation of Sevelamer versus Calcium-based Binders in Treating Hyperphosphatemia among Patients with End-stage Renal Disease in China

PurposeTo conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis study of sevelamer versus calcium-based binders (CBBs) in treating hyperphosphatemia among patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in China. MethodsA decision-analytic model of a lifetime horizon was used for base case analysis from the payers’ perspective. The transition probabilities between different health states were derived from survival analysis. The overall survival of CBBs was derived from the Dialysis Clinical Outcomes Revisited study for up to 44 months and a Weibull regression model was used to extrapolate the overall survival to a lifetime horizon. A hazard ratio (0.54; 95% CI, 0.32–0.93) of the overall survival for sevelamer versus CBBs was used to calculate the survival of the sevelamer group. Clinical and cost data were derived from literature and health care system in the local setting. Incremental life year and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) were the primary outcomes. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the uncertainty of the model assumptions and parameters. The results were reported in 2015 Chinese Renminbi. FindingsThe incremental cost per life year and per QALY gained of sevelamer versus CBBs was ¥44,475 and ¥57,910, respectively. The incremental cost per QALY gained was below the World Health Organization’s recommended cost-effectiveness threshold (¥151,070), which is 3 times the gross domestic product per capita of 2015 in China. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was most sensitive to the hazard ratio of overall survival with sevelamer versus CBBs in the 1-way sensitivity analysis. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve indicated that sevelamer had a 89.6% likelihood of cost-effectiveness at the ¥151,070 threshold. ImplicationsSevelamer is likely to be a cost-effective option in treating hyperphosphatemia among patients with ESRD compared with CBBs in the local context of China.

A Cost-Utility Analysis of Recurrent Laryngeal Nerve Monitoring in the Setting of Total Thyroidectomy

Intraoperative nerve monitoring (IONM) of the recurrent laryngeal nerve (RLN) is used as a tool to decrease the rate of nerve injury, although study findings are divergent on IONM efficacy. The cost-effectiveness of this approach to total thyroidectomy has not been well studied. To determine whether IONM is a cost-effective intervention in the setting of total thyroidectomy. This study creates a decision-tree model of total thyroidectomy to analyze, from a societal perspective, the cost-effectiveness of universal IONM (ie, use in every case) vs selective IONM (ie, high-risk cases including reoperative cases, substernal or toxic goiters, and cases with known cancer) vs no IONM (visual identification only). Parameters for the model were derived from review of the literature, and deterministic and probabilistic analyses were performed to test the model's robustness. All analyses were performed from the model; there were no human participants. Modeled total thyroidectomy with and without IONM of the RLN. Cost-effectiveness of universal IONM vs selective IONM vs visual identification only of the RLN. Visual identification of the RLN led to a cost savings of $179.40 and $683.20 per patient, and an improvement of 0.001 and 0.004 quality-adjusted life-years, over selective IONM and universal IONM, respectively. Visual identification was the most cost-effective approach, despite variations in costs and utilities in both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. In a 1-way sensitivity analysis, decreasing the probability of RLN injury with IONM made selective IONM more cost-effective. When the rate of RLN injury for visual identification was kept constant (at 3.86%), selective IONM became the most cost-effective approach when its RLN injury rate dropped below 1.9%. As the rate of RLN injury with IONM dropped below 50.4% of the visual identification RLN injury rate, selective IONM became the most cost-effective approach. Visual identification of the RLN is more cost-effective than any use of IONM. If a clinician can, with use of IONM, decrease the rate of RLN injury by 50.4% or more compared with visual identification, selective use of IONM in high-risk cases is most cost-effective.

A Cost-Effectiveness Decision Analytic Model Comparing Transnasal Esophagoscopy to Conventional Endoscopy for Dyspepsia

Introduction: The goal of an upper endoscopy (EGD) is to provide both diagnostic evaluation and therapeutic treatment of the upper gastrointestinal tract. One of the most common indications is to evaluate for dyspepsia, with resulting diagnoses ranging from esophagitis, H. pylori infection, to malignancy. Transnasal esophagoscopy (TNE) has been developed as an attempt to provide an alternative to decrease the direct costs of an EGD. In New York State, legislation has even been proposed to mandate that all patients undergo TNE prior to any EGD. The aim of this study was to evaluate which is the most cost effective approach for a patient with dyspepsia. Methods: A decision tree model was constructed with the use of decision analysis software (TreeAge 2012) to evaluate the cost and outcomes for patients with dyspepsia. Patients either underwent TNE or EGD as the diagnostic procedure. If a diagnosis for the patient's dyspepsia was not identified by TNE, then patients proceeded to EGD. Transition probabilities, costs, and quality adjusted life years [QALY] data were taken from the published literature and available public data sources. Outcome measures were reported in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs; 2015 US dollars per QALY), with a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold at $100,000/QALY. Results: The results of the base case analysis are shown in Table 1, the EGD arm was the preferred treatment option. EGD as the initial strategy dominated the TNE strategy (both more effective and least costly). In 1-way sensitivity analysis (SA), the TNE strategy became more cost effective when either the cost of the EGD increased to greater than $3325 (Figure 1), or the facility fee for EGD was greater than $3626. Even if the probability of identifying an esophageal cause of dyspepsia rose to 90%, the TNE strategy was still dominated.Figure 1Table 1: Cost Effectiveness Results Comparing Transnasal Esophagoscopy to Conventional Endoscopy for DyspepsiaConclusion: Our results suggest that EGD was the most cost-effective strategy for evaluation of a patient with dyspepsia. Sensitivity analysis suggests that despite the low cost of TNE, unless the overall cost of EGD increases significantly, TNE still will not be the preferred strategy. Given the multitude of potential diagnoses for dyspepsia, future studies should be conducted for different indications for endoscopy, which may change the preferred diagnostic method, or TNE should be a reserved modality for follow up of known esophageal disease, rather than as an initial diagnostic procedure.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Treatment Options for Adult Eosinophilic Esophagitis Utilizing a Markov Model: 2016 ACG Presidential Poster Award

Introduction: Eosinophilic Esophagitis (EoE) has become increasingly prevalent over the past two decades. The 2013 American College of Gastroenterology EoE guidelines recommend dietary changes (six-food elimination diet [6-FED]), or topical steroids with either swallowed fluticasone (FLT) or viscous budesonide (BDN), as first line therapy. These treatment options vary significantly in their costs and effectiveness, so in an increasingly cost conscious healthcare system, we sought to evaluate the costeff ectiveness of these options. Methods: We developed a decision analytic Markov Model to compare the cost-effectiveness of 3 initial therapy options for a 30-year old man with a new diagnosis of EoE: 1-FLT, 2-BDN and 3-6-FED. Main health states included active disease (both initially and after failing therapy), histologic remission, stricture (either primarily or after initial remission) or death. If patients failed one therapy, they could progress to a second-line (6-FED if steroid first or BDN if 6-FED first) and then a third-line option (elemental diet). The 6-FED strategy required 6 endoscopies as part of treatment evaluation. We utilized a payer perspective, 3 months cycles and a 5-year time horizon. Transition probabilities, costs, and quality adjusted life years [QALY] data were taken from the published literature and available public data sources. Outcome measures were reported in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs; 2015 US dollars per QALY). We set the willingness to pay (WTP) threshold at $100,000/QALY. Results: In the base case, 6-FED was the preferred treatment option (most effective and least costly) (Table 1). In 1-way sensitivity analysis (SA), the BDN strategy became the most cost effective when the cost of an endoscopy (EGD) increased to greater than $2417 (Figure 1) or when the probability of remission for those on the 6-FED was less than 0.678 (Figure 2).Figure 1Figure 2Table 1: Cost-Effectiveness Results Comparing Six-Food Elimination Diet to Fluticasone and Budesonide for Patients with New Diagnosis of Eosinophilic EsophagitisConclusion: Our results showed that the 6-FED was the most cost-effective strategy. Sensitivity analysis revealed that altering the cost of an EGD and the probability of remission for 6-FED had the greatest impact on choice of initial strategy. Current data suggests that adult who eliminate only wheat and dairy, frequently resolve symptoms, thus requiring fewer than six EGDs, and further demonstrating that 6-FED is the most effective strategy. These findings when taken together with the likelihood that a patient will comply with a 6-FED, can help guide initial choice of therapy.

Cost-Effectiveness of Vedolizumab Compared to Adalimumab for Patients with Crohnʼs Disease After Loss of Response to Infliximab: A Markov Model

Introduction: Vedolizumab (VDZ), an alpha4-beta7 integrin monoclonal antibody, is approved for the treatment of Crohn's disease (CD). The optimal second-line biologic for patients with CD and loss of response (LOR) to infliximab is unknown. This study sought to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of VDZ compared to the anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) agent adalimumab (ADA), in a CD patient with LOR to infliximab. Methods: We developed a decision analytic Markov Model to evaluate the base case of a 30-year old man with moderate-severe CD with LOR to infliximab. Two treatment pathways were compared: VDZ or ADA. Patients in each pathway could go into clinical remission, fail therapy (either primarily or after initial remission), progress to surgery, cross over to the other biologic arm, develop lymphoma (if on an anti-TNF) or die. We evaluated the effect of post-operative prophylaxis with a biologic agent, with a rate of use from 0-100% to see how this would affect our results. We used 3-month cycles, a five-year time horizon and a payer perspective. Transitions and costs were taken from the published literature and available public sources (such as Medicare). Outcome measures were reported in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs; 2015 US dollars per quality-adjusted life years [QALY] gained), with a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold set at $100,000/QALY. Results: Initial therapy with ADA was the preferred, cost-effective strategy with higher cost but also greater effectiveness, with an ICER of $62,844/QALY, which is well below our set WTP threshold (Table 1). This remained the preferred strategy even when varying the percentage of patients on post-operative prophylaxis from 0-100%. A Tornado diagram was created (Figure 1) and 1-way and 2-way sensitivity analysis (SA) was performed. The QALY value for disease recurrence was notable for its effect on the preferred strategy (Figure 2). When the disease recurrence QALY was varied to be less than 0.598, VDZ was the preferred strategy; however, for disease recurrence QALY greater than 0.598, ADA was the preferred strategy.Figure 1Figure 2Table 1: Cost-effectiveness results comparing Adalimumab to Vedolizumab for patients with Crohn's Disease, after loss of response to InfliximabConclusion: Our results show that ADA is more cost-effective than VDZ for patients with moderatesevere CD who previously lost response to infliximab. As the QALY of recurrent disease after initial therapy worsened, the strategy of initial VDZ became more cost-effective. This would suggest that if a patient is likely to have a severe disease course, initial VDZ is preferred.

Determining the Cost-Savings Threshold and Alignment Accuracy of Patient-Specific Instrumentation in Total Ankle Replacements.

Traditional intraoperative referencing for total ankle replacements (TARs) involves multiple steps and fluoroscopic guidance to determine mechanical alignment. Recent adoption of patient-specific instrumentation (PSI) allows for referencing to be determined preoperatively, resulting in less steps and potentially decreased operative time. We hypothesized that usage of PSI would result in decreased operating room time that would offset the additional cost of PSI compared with standard referencing (SR). In addition, we aimed to compare postoperative radiographic alignment between PSI and SR. Between August 2014 and September 2015, 87 patients undergoing TAR were enrolled in a prospectively collected TAR database. Patients were divided into cohorts based on PSI vs SR, and operative times were reviewed. Radiographic alignment parameters were retrospectively measured at 6 weeks postoperatively. Time-driven activity-based costing (TDABC) was used to derive direct costs. Cost vs operative time-savings were examined via 2-way sensitivity analysis to determine cost-saving thresholds for PSI applicable to a range of institution types. Cost-saving thresholds defined the price of PSI below which PSI would be cost-saving. A total of 35 PSI and 52 SR cases were evaluated with no significant differences identified in patient characteristics. Operative time from incision to completion of casting in cases without adjunct procedures was 127 minutes with PSI and 161 minutes with SR ( P < .05). PSI demonstrated similar postoperative accuracy to SR in coronal tibial-plafond alignment (1.1 vs 0.3 degrees varus, P = .06), tibial-plafond alignment (0.3 ± 2.1 vs 1.1 ± 2.1 degrees varus, P = .06), and tibial component sagittal alignment (0.7 vs 0.9 degrees plantarflexion, P = .14). The TDABC method estimated a PSI cost-savings threshold range at our institution of $863 below which PSI pricing would provide net cost-savings. Two-way sensitivity analysis generated a globally applicable cost-savings threshold model based on institution-specific costs and surgeon-specific time-savings. This study demonstrated equivalent postoperative TAR alignment with PSI and SR referencing systems but with a significant decrease in operative time with PSI. Based on TDABC and associated sensitivity analysis, a cost-savings threshold of $863 was identified for PSI pricing at our institution below which PSI was less costly than SR. Similar internal cost accounting may benefit health care systems for identifying cost drivers and obtaining leverage during price negotiations. Level III, therapeutic study.