6-month Mortality Research Articles

A systematic review of predictive accuracy via c-statistic of preoperative frailty tests for extended length of stay, post-operative complications, and mortality.

Frailty, as an age-related syndrome of reduced physiological reserve, contributes significantly to post-operative outcomes. With the aging population, frailty poses a significant threat to patients and health systems. Since 2012, preoperative frailty assessment has been recommended, yet its implementation has been inhibited by the vast number of frailty tests and lack of consensus. Since the anesthesiologist is the best placed for perioperative care, an anesthesia-tailored preoperative frailty test must be simple, quick, universally applicable to all surgeries, accurate, and ideally available in an app or online form. This systematic review attempted to rank frailty tests by predictive accuracy using the c-statistic in the outcomes of extended length of stay, 3-month post-operative complications, and 3-month mortality, as well as feasibility outcomes including time to completion, equipment and training requirements, cost, and database compatibility. Presenting findings of all frailty tests as a future reference for anesthesiologists, Clinical Frailty Scale was found to have the best combination of accuracy and feasibility for mortality with speed of completion and phone app availability; Edmonton Frailty Scale had the best accuracy for post-operative complications with opportunity for self-reporting. Finally, extended length of stay had too little data for recommendation of a frailty test. This review also demonstrated the need for changing research emphasis from odds ratios to metrics that measure the accuracy of a test itself, such as the c-statistic.

Impact of data source choice on multimorbidity measurement: a comparison study of 2.3 million individuals in the Welsh National Health Service

BackgroundMeasurement of multimorbidity in research is variable, including the choice of the data source used to ascertain conditions. We compared the estimated prevalence of multimorbidity and associations with mortality using different data sources.MethodsA cross-sectional study of SAIL Databank data including 2,340,027 individuals of all ages living in Wales on 01 January 2019. Comparison of prevalence of multimorbidity and constituent 47 conditions using data from primary care (PC), hospital inpatient (HI), and linked PC-HI data sources and examination of associations between condition count and 12-month mortality.ResultsUsing linked PC-HI compared with only HI data, multimorbidity was more prevalent (32.2% versus 16.5%), and the population of people identified as having multimorbidity was younger (mean age 62.5 versus 66.8 years) and included more women (54.2% versus 52.6%). Individuals with multimorbidity in both PC and HI data had stronger associations with mortality than those with multimorbidity only in HI data (adjusted odds ratio 8.34 [95% CI 8.02-8.68] versus 6.95 (95%CI 6.79-7.12] in people with ≥ 4 conditions). The prevalence of conditions identified using only PC versus only HI data was significantly higher for 37/47 and significantly lower for 10/47: the highest PC/HI ratio was for depression (14.2 [95% CI 14.1–14.4]) and the lowest for aneurysm (0.51 [95% CI 0.5–0.5]). Agreement in ascertainment of conditions between the two data sources varied considerably, being slight for five (kappa < 0.20), fair for 12 (kappa 0.21–0.40), moderate for 16 (kappa 0.41–0.60), and substantial for 12 (kappa 0.61–0.80) conditions, and by body system was lowest for mental and behavioural disorders. The percentage agreement, individuals with a condition identified in both PC and HI data, was lowest in anxiety (4.6%) and highest in coronary artery disease (62.9%).ConclusionsThe use of single data sources may underestimate prevalence when measuring multimorbidity and many important conditions (especially mental and behavioural disorders). Caution should be used when interpreting findings of research examining individual and multiple long-term conditions using single data sources. Where available, researchers using electronic health data should link primary care and hospital inpatient data to generate more robust evidence to support evidence-based healthcare planning decisions for people with multimorbidity.

IRON NOF trial: IV iron for anaemic patients with femoral fracture

BackgroundPreoperative anaemia is associated with increased use of blood transfusions, a greater risk of postoperative complications, and patient morbidity. The IRON NOF trial aimed to investigate whether the administration of i.v. iron in anaemic patients during hip fracture surgery reduced the need for blood transfusion and improved patient outcomes. MethodsThis phase III double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial included patients >60 yr old with preoperative anaemia undergoing surgery for femoral neck or subtrochanteric fracture across seven Australian Hospitals. Patients were randomly allocated on a 1:1 basis to receive either i.v. iron carboxymaltose 1000 mg or placebo (saline) at operation. The primary endpoint was blood transfusion use, with secondary endpoints of haemoglobin concentration at 6 weeks, length of hospital stay, rehabilitation duration to discharge, and 6-month mortality. Subgroup analysis compared outcomes in patients <80 yr old and patients >80 yr old. All analyses were performed by intention-to-treat. This trial was terminated early because of jurisdictional changes of more restrictive transfusion practices and changes in consent requirements. ResultsParticipants (n=143) were recruited between February 2013 and May 2017. There was no difference observed in the incidence of blood transfusion between the treatment group (18/70) (26%) compared with the placebo group (27/73) (37%) (odds ratio for transfusion if receiving placebo: 1.70; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83–3.47; P=0.15) and there was no overall difference in the median number of blood units transfused between groups (odds ratio 1.52; 95% CI 0.77–3.00; P=0.22). Patients receiving i.v. iron had a higher haemoglobin 6 weeks after intervention compared with the placebo group (Hb 116 g L−1vs 108 g L−1; P=0.01). No difference was observed in length of hospital stay, rehabilitation duration to discharge, or 6-month mortality. However, in younger patients without major bleeding, the use of placebo compared with i.v. iron was associated with an increased number of units of blood transfused (placebo transfusion incidence rate ratio 3.88; 95% CI 1.16–13.0; P=0.03). ConclusionsIn anaemic patients undergoing surgery for hip fracture, i.v. iron did not reduce the overall proportion of patients receiving blood transfusion. The use of i.v. iron may reduce the amount of blood transfused in younger patients. The use of i.v. iron is associated with increased haemoglobin concentrations 6 weeks after the operation. Clinical trial registrationACTRN12612000448842.

A multicenter double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized trial to evaluate the safety and efficacy of bovine colostrum in the treatment of severe alcoholic hepatitis (SAH)

BackgroundSevere alcoholic hepatitis (SAH) is associated with high mortality. Numerous studies and meta-analysis have reported that corticosteroids reduce the 28-day mortality in SAH, but not the 6-month mortality. Therefore, newer treatments for SAH need to be studied. A pilot study from our group had recently treated ten patients with SAH with bovine colostrum (BC) [20 g thrice in a day for 8 weeks] and prednisolone. This therapy improved the biological functions and 3-month mortality. However, as more and more data showed the failure of corticosteroids to improve the 3- and 6-month mortality, especially in patients with high mDF and MELD scores, we planned this trial to study the safety and efficacy of BC (without corticosteroids) in the treatment of SAH.MethodThis is a multicenter, parallel, double-blind, randomized (1:1) placebo-controlled trial, which will enroll 174 patients with SAH from 5 academic centers in the India. Patients will receive freeze-dried BC or placebo by random 1:1 allocation for 4 weeks. The primary outcome measure is survival at 3 months. The secondary outcome measures are survival at 1 month, change in mDF and MELD scores, change in endotoxin and cytokines (alpha TNF, IL6, and IL8) levels, number of episodes of sepsis [pneumonia, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), cellulitis, urinary tract infection (UTI)] from baseline to 4 weeks.DiscussionThis study will evaluate the safety and efficacy of bovine colostrum in improving the survival of patients with SAH.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT02473341. Prospectively registered on June 16, 2015.

Estimating the uncertain effect of the COVID pandemic on drug overdoses.

U.S. drug-related overdose deaths and Emergency Department (ED) visits rose in 2020 and again in 2021. Many academic studies and the news media attributed this rise primarily to increased drug use resulting from the societal disruptions related to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. A competing explanation is that higher overdose deaths and ED visits may have reflected a continuation of pre-pandemic trends in synthetic-opioid deaths, which began to rise in mid-2019. We assess the evidence on whether increases in overdose deaths and ED visits are likely to be related primarily to the COVID-19 pandemic, increased synthetic-opioid use, or some of both. We use national data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on rolling 12-month drug-related deaths (2015-2021); CDC data on monthly ED visits (2019-September 2020) for EDs in 42 states; and ED visit data for 181 EDs in 24 states staffed by a national ED physician staffing group (January 2016-June 2022). We study drug overdose deaths per 100,000 persons during the pandemic period, and ED visits for drug overdoses, in both cases compared to predicted levels based on pre-pandemic trends. Mortality. National overdose mortality increased from 21/100,000 in 2019 to 26/100,000 in 2020 and 30/100,000 in 2021. The rise in mortality began in mid-to-late half of 2019, and the 2020 increase is well-predicted by models that extrapolate pre-pandemic trends for rolling 12-month mortality to the pandemic period. Placebo analyses (which assume the pandemic started earlier or later than March 2020) do not provide evidence for a change in trend in or soon after March 2020. State-level analyses of actual mortality, relative to mortality predicted based on pre-pandemic trends, show no consistent pattern. The state-level results support state heterogeneity in overdose mortality trends, and do not support the pandemic being a major driver of overdose mortality. ED visits. ED overdose visits rose during our sample period, reflecting a worsening opioid epidemic, but rose at similar rates during the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods. The reasons for rising overdose mortality in 2020 and 2021 cannot be definitely determined. We lack a control group and thus cannot assess causation. However, the observed increases can be largely explained by a continuation of pre-pandemic trends toward rising synthetic-opioid deaths, principally fentanyl, that began in mid-to-late 2019. We do not find evidence supporting the pandemic as a major driver of rising mortality. Policymakers need to directly address the synthetic opioid epidemic, and not expect a respite as the pandemic recedes.

Pre-stroke glycemic variability estimated by glycated albumin predicts hematoma expansion and poor outcomes in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage

Glycemic variability has been shown to be correlated more with oxidative stress than chronic hyperglycemia. We evaluated the impact of pre-stroke glycemic variability measured using glycated albumin (GA) on hematoma expansion and clinical outcomes following spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We consecutively enrolled 343 patients with ICH for 72 months using a single-center registry database. The primary outcome measure was hematoma expansion. The secondary outcome measures were early neurological deterioration (END), 1-month mortality, and 3-month poor functional outcomes (modified Rankin scale score of 4–6). The patients were divided into two groups based on pre-stroke glycemic variability: a higher GA group (GA ≥ 16.0%) and a lower GA group (GA < 16.0%). During the study period, there were 63 (18.4%) events of hematoma expansion, 61 (17.8%) of END, 45 (13.1%) of 1-month mortality, and 45 (13.1%) of 3-month poor functional outcomes after ICH. The higher GA group (36.4%) had higher rates of hematoma expansion, END, 1-month mortality, and 3-month poor functional outcomes than the lower GA group. Multivariate analysis showed that a higher GA level was significantly associated with increased hematoma expansion (adjusted odds ratio 5.83; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.58–13.19, p < 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of GA (0.83; 95% CI 0.48–0.65) for predicting hematoma expansion was higher than that of glycated hemoglobin (0.57; 95% CI 0.48–0.65, p for DeLong’s pairwise comparison < 0.001). Higher GA levels could be a reliable marker for predicting hematoma expansion and poor outcomes following ICH.

Outcome and factors associated with mortality in patients receiving urgent chemotherapy in the ICU: A retrospective study

PurposeThis study aimed to assess the outcome and factors associated with mortality in patients who received urgent chemotherapy (CT) in the intensive care unit (ICU) in Lyon, France. Material and methodsA total of 147 adult patients diagnosed with cancer and requiring urgent CT during ICU stay between October 2014 and December 2019 were included in this retrospective study. ResultsHematological cancer was found in 77% of patients, and acute respiratory failure was the leading cause of ICU admission (46.3%). The 6-month mortality rate was 69.4%; patients with solid cancer had a higher risk of mortality. Patients who died within 6 months had a poor performance score and a higher SOFA score at admission. The multivariate analysis showed that solid tumors, sepsis on the day of CT, and SOFA score on the day of CT were associated with 6-month mortality. Additionally, 95% of patients who survived the ICU resumed conventional CT, with a higher likelihood of resuming CT among those with hematological cancer. ConclusionUrgent CT in the ICU is feasible in a specific subset of patients, mainly those with hematological cancer, with resumption of the curative treatment regimen after ICU discharge.

Comparison of the Efficacy of Atorvastatin and Rosuvastatin in Preventing Atrial Fibrillation after Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: A Double-Blind Randomized Comparative Trial.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a supraventricular tachyarrhythmia characterized by disorganized atrial activity and subsequent mechanical atrial failure. Postoperative AF is a frequent complication of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Although there is evidence of decreased AF after CABG with statin usage, information is scarce regarding a direct comparison between atorvastatin and rosuvastatin. The present study was conducted to compare the efficacy of rosuvastatin and atorvastatin in preventing post-CABG AF. The present double-blind randomized comparative clinical trial selected CABG candidates with stable ischemic heart disease or acute coronary syndromes. Atorvastatin (40 mg per day) or rosuvastatin (20 mg per day) was prescribed 1 week before surgery, and the outcomes were compared. Two-hundred patients, 100 cases in each group, completed the study. Twenty-five patients in each group were female, and the mean age was 59.30±8.42 years in the rosuvastatin group and 60.13±9.40 years in the atorvastatin group (P=0.513). The frequency of AF was 31% in the atorvastatin group and 27% in the rosuvastatin group (P=0.534). No significant differences existed between the groups concerning the length of hospital and ICU stay (P=0.333 and P=0.161) and in-hospital and 3-month mortality (P=0.315 and P=0.648). A subgroup analysis of only patients with stable ischemic heart disease could not detect a significant difference between the study groups in any of the investigated outcomes. Our logistic regression analysis showed an association only between age and the incidence of AF after CABG (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.20; P<0.01). Rosuvastatin and atorvastatin are similar concerning the prevention of post-CABG AF, but there is a need for future well-designed multicenter studies on this topic.

Towards shortening the Brief Addiction Monitor-Revised (BAM-R)

IntroductionThe Brief Addiction Monitor-Revised (BAM-R) is a widely used, 17-item assessment of substance use, risk, and protective factors associated with recovery from substance use disorders. Despite wide adoption in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and recommendations for use in measurement-based care (MBC), administration may not be feasible in many MBC settings due to time constraints. The purpose of this study was to derive a shortened version of the BAM-R for use in fast-paced healthcare settings. MethodsBAM-R data from 32,002 Veterans were obtained through the VA's Corporate Data Warehouse. We used logistic regression models to identify items for removal based on prediction of two clinical outcomes (90-day substance use disorder (SUD) treatment retention and 12-month mortality) and item-level sensitivity to change during substance use treatment. ResultsAlthough no intake BAM-R items predicted SUD treatment retention or mortality, effect sizes for item-level sensitivity to change during substance use treatment varied from small to large. Seven items were judged as relevant for MBC of SUD. Among all BAM-R items, Heavy Alcohol Use, Self-Help, Drug Use, Craving, and Mood items demonstrated the greatest magnitude of sensitivity to change. ConclusionsAlthough additional research is recommended before a shortened BAM-R can be implemented in non-specialty MBC settings, we identified 5 BAM-R items with perceived clinical utility and scores that demonstrated evidence of sensitivity to change. Shortening the BAM-R increases feasibility of use, though more work is needed to optimize measurement for SUD MBC.

Short-term surgical outcomes of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage in China from 2019 to 2021: a retrospective cohort study

China has the highest prevalence of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) worldwide. To date, no national-level report has revealed sICH surgical performance. We aimed to investigate the current status and short-term outcomes of patients who underwent surgical treatment for sICH between 2019 and2021. Data from 7451 patients undergoing sICH surgical treatment in China between 2019 and 2021, including demographic information, disease severity, surgical treatments for sICH, complications, and follow-up information, were retrieved from the Bigdata Observatory Platform for Stroke of China. Propensity score matching (PSM) was applied to balance the baseline characteristics. The surgical treatment performance on 3-month mortality and functional outcome were then explored by regression analysis. The influence of stroke center level and region on surgical performance was then explored. The numbers of sICH patients undergoing open craniotomy (OC), cranial puncture (CP), decompressive craniectomy (DC) and endoscopic evacuation (EE) were 2404 (32.3%), 3030 (40.7%), 1700 (22.8%) and 317 (4.3%), respectively. The 3-month mortality rate was 20.2%. Among the surviving patients, the 3-month poor functional prognosis (mRS 3-5) rate was 46.5%. After PSM, regression analysis showed that DC was associated with a higher mortality risk (OR=1.31, 95% CI 1.06-1.61) than OC. CP was associated with a lower risk of poor mRS scores than OC (OR=0.84, 95% CI 0.70-1.01), especially in stroke prevention centers and specific regions. Outcome improvements in Chinese sICH patients undergoing surgical treatment are worth expecting. Inconsistent surgical performance, especially functional outcome, affected by inhomogeneity of the hospital should be addressed. This work was supported by the Beijing Hospitals Authority Youth Programme (QML20230804), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81701796, 82030037, 81871009), Capital Health Research and Development of Special Fund (2020-2Z-2019), Science and Technology Innovation 2030-Major Project (2021ZD0201801), and the Translational and Application Project of Brain-inspired and Network Neuroscience on Brain Disorders (11000022T000000444685).

Comparison of different prognostic scores in estimating short- and long-term mortality in COVID-19 patients above 60years old in a university hospital in Belgium.

Multiple scoring systems were used for risk stratification in COVID-19 patients. The objective was to determine among 6 scores which performed the best in predicting short-and long-term mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients ≥ 60years. An observational, retrospective cohort study conducted between 21/10/2020 and 20/01/2021. 6 scores were calculated (Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), 4C Mortality Score (4CMS), NEWS score (NEWS), quick-SOFA score (qSOFA), and Quick COVID-19 Severity Index (qCSI)). We included unvaccinated hospitalized patients with COVID-19 ≥ 60years old in Brugmann hospital, detected by PCR and/or suggestive CT thorax images. Old and nosocomial infections, and patients admitted immediately at the intensive care unit were excluded. 199 patients were included, mean age was 76.2years (60-99). 47.2% were female. 56 patients (28%) died within 1year after the first day of hospitalization. The 4CMS predicted the best intrahospital, 30days and 6months mortality, with area under the ROC curve (AUROC) 0.695 (0.58-0.81), 0.76 (0.65-0.86) and 0.72 (0.63-0.82) respectively. The CCI came right after with respectively AUROC of 0.69 (0.59-0.79), 0.74 (0.65-0.83) and 0.71 (0.64-0.8). To predict mortality at 12months after hospitalization, the CCI had the highest AUROC with 0.77 (0.69-0.85), before the 4CMS with 0.69 (0.60-0.79). Among 6 scores, the 4CMS was the best to predict intrahospital, 30-day and 6-month mortality. To predict mortality at 12months, CCI had the best performance before 4CMS. This reflects the importance of considering comorbidities for short- and long-term mortality after COVID 19. This study was approved by the ethical committee of Brugmann University Hospital (reference CE 2020/228).

External Validation of a Machine Learning Model to Predict 6-Month Mortality for Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors

This prognostic study performed external validation of a machine learning model to predict 6-month mortality among patients with advanced solid tumors.

Efficacy and safety of selenium or vitamin E administration alone or in combination in ICU patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Micronutrient administration that contributes to antioxidant defense has been extensively studied in critically ill patients, but consensus remains elusive. Selenium and vitamin E are two important micronutrients that have synergistic antioxidant effects. This meta-analysis aimed to assess the effect of selenium or vitamin E administration alone and the combination of both on clinical outcomes in patients hospitalized in the ICU. After electronic searches on PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), SinoMed, VIP database and Wanfang data, initially 1767 papers were found, and 30 interventional studies were included in this analysis. We assessed the risk-difference between treatment and control (standard treatment) groups by pooling available data on length of stay (ICU length of stay and hospital length of stay), mortality (ICU mortality, hospital mortality, 28-day mortality, 6-month mortality and all-cause mortality), duration of mechanical ventilation, adverse events and new infections. By analyzing the included studies, we found no significant effect of selenium administration alone on mortality, mechanical ventilation duration, or adverse events in ICU patients. However, after excluding studies with high heterogeneity, the meta-analysis showed that selenium alone reduced the length of hospital stay (MD:-1.38; 95% CI:-2.52,-0.23; I-square: 0%). Vitamin E administration alone had no significant effect on mortality, duration of mechanical ventilation, or adverse events in ICU patients. However, after excluding studies with high heterogeneity, the meta-analysis showed that vitamin E alone could reduce the length of ICU stay (MD:-1.27; 95% CI:-1.86,-0.67; I-square: 16%). Combined administration of selenium and vitamin E had no significant effect on primary outcomes in ICU patients. Selenium administration alone may shorten the length of hospital stay, while vitamin E alone may reduce the length of ICU stay. The putative synergistic beneficial effect of combined administration of selenium and vitamin E in ICU patients has not been observed, but more clinical studies are pending to confirm it further.

A Validated Composite Score Demonstrates Potential Superiority to MELD-Based Systems in Predicting Short-Term Survival in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis-A Preliminary Study.

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a severe complication in cirrhosis patients with ascites, leading to high mortality rates if not promptly treated. However, specific prediction models for SBP are lacking. This study aimed to compare commonly used cirrhotic prediction models (CTP score, MELD, MELD-Na, iMELD, and MELD 3.0) for short-term mortality prediction and develop a novel model to improve mortality prediction. Patients with the first episode of SBP were included. Prognostic values for mortality were assessed using AUROC analysis. A novel prediction model was developed and validated. In total, 327 SBP patients were analyzed, with HBV infection as the main etiologies. MELD 3.0 demonstrated the highest AUROC among the traditional models. The novel model, incorporating HRS, exhibited superior predictive accuracy for in-hospital in all patients and 3-month mortality in HBV-cirrhosis, with AUROC values of 0.827 and 0.813 respectively, surpassing 0.8. MELD 3.0 score outperformed the CTP score and showed a non-significant improvement compared to other MELD-based scores, while the novel SBP model demonstrated impressive accuracy. Internal validation and an HBV-related cirrhosis subgroup sensitivity analysis supported these findings, highlighting the need for a specific prognostic model for SBP and the importance of preventing HRS development to improve SBP prognosis.

The Paradoxical Association of Lipids with Survival and Walking Ability of Hip Fractures in Geriatric Patients After Surgery: A 1-Year Follow-Up Study.

We aimed to explore the association between lipids and the survival and walking ability of hip fractures in geriatric patients after surgery. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) was established to explore the nonlinear relationship between lipids and 1-year mortality of hip fractures, and the cut-off points were also determined by RCS. Then, the patients were divided into three groups: low, middle, and high levels of LDL-c. Then, the survival and walking ability of patients from different groups were compared, and the Cox regression and Logistics regression were used to identify the relationships between lipids and the survival and walking ability of hip fractures. The patients with middle levels of LDL-c had a significantly high survival probability than those with low or high levels of LDL-c (p < 0.001). The patients with low levels of LDL-c and with high levels of LDL-c may have a poor prognosis compared with patients with middle levels of LDL-c in 6-month mortality, 6-month free walking ability, 1-year mortality, and 1-year free walking ability (All p < 0.05). Low and high levels of LDL-c may both relate to the poor survival and walking ability of hip fractures.

Examining predictors for 6-month mortality and healthcare utilization for patients admitted for heart failure in the acute care setting

BackgroundAcute heart failure (AHF) is a leading cause of mortality and hospitalization. Past studies reported increased healthcare spending in the last year of life in high-income countries, and this has been characterized as inappropriate healthcare resource utilization. The study aimed to examine potentially (in)appropriate healthcare utilization by comparing healthcare utilization patterns across predicted and observed 6-month mortality among patients admitted for HF. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study among patients presenting at the emergency department (ED) of a tertiary hospital with HF as primary diagnosis and admitted after their ED discharge. We used LASSO Cox proportional hazards models to predict 6-month mortality, and estimated healthcare utilization patterns of predicted and observed mortality across inpatient healthcare services. Results3946 patients were admitted into the emergency department with a primary diagnosis of HF. From 57 candidate variables, 17 were retained in the final 6- month mortality model (C-statistic 0.66). Patients who died within 6-months of ED admission had longer length of stay (LOS) and less inpatient surgeries than those who survived. Patients with a greater predicted mortality risk were admitted to the ICU more often and had a longer LOS than those with a lower predicted mortality risk. ConclusionsThere were significant differences in healthcare resource utilization in patients admitted for AHF across predicted versus actual mortality. Lack of information on patients' preferences prevents the estimation of (in)appropriateness. Future studies should account for these considerations to estimate inappropriate healthcare utilization among these patients.

Predictive value of six nutrition biomarkers in oncological spine surgery: a performance assessment for prediction of mortality and wound infection.

Assessment of nutritional status is fundamental in cancer patients. The objective of this study was to assess the predictive ability of 6 nutritional biomarkers for postoperative mortality and wound infection after metastatic spinal tumor surgery. A total of 139 patients who underwent oncological surgery for metastatic spine disease between April 2012 and August 2022 and had a minimum follow-up of 90 days were included. Six unique nutritional biomarkers were assessed: Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI), Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), Controlling Nutritional Status Score (CONUT), total psoas cross-sectional area (TPA), body mass index (BMI), and body weight. Study endpoints were 90-day mortality rate, 12-month mortality rate, and wound infection. The discriminative ability of each of these markers was assessed with the c-statistic. A multivariate analysis was done for each of the biomarkers after a univariate analysis was first performed. The 90-day mortality rate was 27% (37 of 139). The biomarkers and respective c-statistics were as follows: PNI (0.74), NRI (0.75), CONUT (0.71), TPA (0.64), BMI (0.59), and body weight (0.60). The 12-month mortality rate was 56% (51 of 91). The biomarkers and respective c-statistics were as follows: PNI (0.72), NRI (0.73), CONUT (0.70), TPA (0.63), BMI (0.59), and body weight (0.60). The wound infection rate was 8% (11 of 139). The biomarkers and respective c-statistics were as follows: PNI (0.57), NRI (0.53), CONUT (0.55), TPA (0.57), BMI (0.48), and body weight (0.52). The PNI, NRI, and CONUT all predicted 90-day and 12-month mortality after multivariate regression analysis. No association between nutrition and wound infection was found. In this study, nutritional status was associated with postoperative mortality following oncological spine surgery. Three biomarkers predicted outcome independent of variables such as performance status or primary cancer. Future validation of these metrics is needed.

＜Editors' Choice＞ Comparison of clinical features between patients with acute exacerbation of idiopathic interstitial pneumonia and collagen vascular disease-associated interstitial pneumonia.

Acute exacerbation (AE) of interstitial pneumonia (IP) shows poor prognosis, due to the typical histological pattern of diffuse alveolar damage superimposed upon lung fibrosis. The previous reports comparing clinical features between AE of idiopathic interstitial pneumonias (IIPs) and those of IPs with known etiology are limited. We retrospectively compared clinical parameters including age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index score (CCIS), blood biomarkers at diagnosis of AE, treatment, and 3-month mortality between patients with AE of IIPs and collagen vascular disease-associated interstitial pneumonia (CVD-IP). We assessed 85 patients, comprising 66 patients with AE of IIPs (78%) and 19 patients with AE of CVD-IP (22%). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression selected CCIS (hazard ratio, 1.281; 95% confidence interval, 1.055-1.556; P = 0.012) and log serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (hazard ratio, 6.267; 95% confidence interval, 2.172-18.085; P < 0.001) as significant predictors of 3-month mortality among these patients. Also, the adjusted survival curves using sex, CCIS, and serum LDH showed no significant differences between these two groups. In conclusion, among AE patients, CCIS and serum LDH level may be more important prognostic factors for 3-month mortality rather than two classification of IP subtypes: IIPs and CVD-IP.

Prognostic Value of Red Blood Cell Distribution Width and Hemoglobin in Patients with Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

The association between baseline red blood cell distribution width (RDW) and hemoglobin levels and outcomes after acute intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is not well studied. We aimed to investigate the association between baseline RDW and hemoglobin levels with early hematoma expansion (HE) and mortality at 3 months and 1 year in acute ICH patients. A total of 393 ICH patients from January 2014 to February 2019 were included. Patients were divided into four groups based on quartiles of RDW and hemoglobin levels at admission, respectively. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the effect of the levels of RDW and hemoglobin on early HE (absolute hematoma growth >6 mL from baseline to follow-up) and allcaused mortality at 3 months and 1 year. There were no significant associations between baseline RDW and hemoglobin levels and early HE. The 3-month mortality (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 2.88; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.96-8.64) and 1-year mortality (adjusted OR 3.16, 95% CI 1.08-9.21) was significantly higher in patients with the highest RDW level (Q4) compared to those with the lowest RDW level (Q1). Moreover, patients with the lowest hemoglobin level were significantly associated with increased odds of all-cause mortality at 3-month (adjusted OR 3.95, 95% CI 1.26-12.4) and 1-year (adjusted OR 4.42, 95% CI 1.56-12.5) compared to those with highest hemoglobin level. In patients with acute ICH, a higher level of RDW at admission significantly increased the risk of all-cause mortality at 1 year. Moreover, a decreased hemoglobin level at admission was also associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality at 3 months and 1 year.

Clinical Frailty Scale as a predictor of adverse outcomes following aortic valve replacement: a systematic review and meta-analysis

ObjectivesAssessment of frailty prior to aortic valve intervention is recommended in European and North American valvular heart disease guidelines. However, there is a lack of consensus on how it is...